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LSU

LSU 24 at Vanderbilt 31

VAN
2025 · Week 8 · Oct 18, 2025 · FirstBank Stadium
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Win probability · VAN
modelVAN aheadLSU aheadconfidence bandkey playVAN scoreLSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDFGFGTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 1:43 · Diego Pavia sacked by West Weeks for a loss of 8 yards to the VAN 36
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsPregame priorBlowout margin
+27.5+13.80−13.8−27.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 65Home team on offense+4.4Garbage-time factor+0.6Score differential+0.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.0Pregame prior+1.2Blowout margin−0.8
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 14:50: Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Trey'Dez Green for 24 yds for a TD (Damian Ramos KICK) — LSU win probability +5.5 pts (now 51%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 5:52: Sedrick Alexander run for 1 yd for a TD (Brock Taylor KICK) — VAN win probability +8.3 pts (now 60%) (top driver: VAN has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 9:03: Diego Pavia pass complete to Cole Spence for 1 yd for a TD (Brock Taylor KICK) — VAN win probability +10.7 pts (now 80%) (top driver: VAN has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 6:52: Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Zavion Thomas for 62 yds for a TD (Garrett Nussmeier pass to Trey'Dez Green for Two-Point Conversion) — LSU win probability +17.7 pts (now 41%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  5. TD · Q3 0:27: Diego Pavia run for 21 yds for a TD (Brock Taylor KICK) — VAN win probability +15.6 pts (now 85%) (top driver: VAN has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
VAN made the numbers' call on 4 of 6LSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 6
  1. Q1 9:32LSU 4th & 13 at VAN 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 43.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.6%−0.2
    21% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    43.8%
    54% to make
    Punt
    43.6%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q2 5:52VAN 4th & 1 at LSU 1, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 53.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    52.4%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    49.7%−2.7
    94% to make
    Punt
    42.9%−9.5
    average punt
  3. Q2 2:33LSU 4th & 8 at VAN 35, down 4
    Close callKicked a field goal · 39.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.8%
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    39.7%−0.1
    45% to make
    Punt
    38.7%−1.1
    average punt
  4. Q2 1:43VAN 4th & 1 at VAN 44, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 62.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    62.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    61.3%−1.3
    average punt
  5. Q2 0:45LSU 4th & 12 at VAN 25, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 38.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.5%−1.4
    22% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    38.9%
    66% to make
    Punt
    34.6%−4.3
    average punt
  6. Q2 0:02VAN 4th & 1 at LSU 28, up 1
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.4 ptsKicked a field goal · 62.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    61.4%−2.4
    60% to make
    Punt
    56.3%−7.6
    average punt
  7. Q3 3:36VAN 4th & 1 at VAN 46, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 64.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    65.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    62.4%−3.0
    average punt
  8. Q4 11:39LSU 4th & 6 at VAN 6, down 10
    Close callKicked a field goal · 17.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.9%
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    16.1%−0.7
    91% to make
    Punt
    9.2%−7.7
    average punt
  9. Q4 8:55VAN 4th & 7 at VAN 28, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.4%−2.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.5%
    average punt
  10. Q4 6:28LSU 4th & 22 at LSU 18, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.5%−3.1
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.6%
    average punt
  11. Q4 4:40VAN 4th & 6 at VAN 47, up 7
    Close callPunted · 89.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.7%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  12. Q4 3:12LSU 4th & 8 at LSU 22, down 7
    Close callPunted · 10.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.4%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.5%−0.9
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
VAN made the numbers' call on 4 of 4LSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q1 3:38VAN Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    58.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:50LSU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    45.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    45.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 5:52VAN Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 9:03VAN Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 6:52LSU Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    34.2%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    34.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 0:27VAN Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
LSUDrive 1FG
14 plays · 44 yds · 5:2348% → 47%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
52.3%
Caden Durham run for no gain to the LSU 25Similar
Q1 14:15
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
52.4%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Barion Brown for 4 yds to the LSU 29Similar
Q1 13:50
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+11
52.5%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Kyle Parker for 11 yds to the LSU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
52.4%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Barion Brown for 2 yds to the LSU 42Similar
Q1 12:40
2ND & 8
OWN 42
+12
52.5%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Barion Brown for 12 yds to the VAN 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:20
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+6
52.4%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Barion Brown for 6 yds to the VAN 40Similar
Q1 11:35
2ND & 4
OPP 40
+3
52.4%
Caden Durham run for 3 yds to the VAN 37Similar
Q1 10:55
3RD & 1
OPP 37
+9
52.4%
Harlem Berry run for 9 yds to the VAN 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:00
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-3
52.2%
Garrett Nussmeier sacked by Keanu Koht for a loss of 3 yards to the VAN 31Similar
Q1 9:41
2ND & 13
OPP 31
0
52.4%
Garrett Nussmeier pass incomplete to Zavion ThomasSimilar
Q1 9:36
3RD & 13
OPP 31
0
52.9%
Garrett Nussmeier pass incomplete to Trey'Dez GreenSimilar
Q1 9:32
4TH & 13
OPP 31
+48
53.0%
Damian Ramos 48 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 2TD
13 plays · 57 yds · 5:3753% → 57%
Q1 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+1
53.1%
Sedrick Alexander run for 1 yd to the VAN 44Similar
Q1 8:30
2ND & 9
OWN 44
+5
53.2%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Eli Stowers for 5 yds to the VAN 49Similar
Q1 7:50
3RD & 4
OWN 49
+19
53.2%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Cole Spence for 19 yds to the LSU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+4
54.0%
Kayleb Barnett run for 4 yds to the LSU 28Similar
Q1 6:20
2ND & 6
OPP 28
-2
54.1%
Sedrick Alexander run for a loss of 2 yards to the LSU 30Similar
Q1 5:45
3RD & 8
OPP 30
+14
53.4%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Eli Stowers for 14 yds to the LSU 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:05
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
54.1%
Sedrick Alexander run for no gain to the LSU 16Similar
Q1 4:26
2ND & 10
OPP 16
-5
53.5%
Vanderbilt Penalty, False Start (Bryce Henderson) to the LSU 21Similar
Q1 4:14
2ND & 15
OPP 21
+20
53.3%
Diego Pavia run for 20 yds to the LSU 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:04
1ST & 0
OPP 1
0
54.1%
LSU Penalty, Defensive Offside (Jacobian Guillory II) to the LSU 1Similar
Q1 3:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
56.9%
Diego Pavia run for 1 yd for a TD (Brock Taylor KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 3TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:4044% → 51%
Q1 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
56.2%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Ju'Juan Johnson for 5 yds to the LSU 30 LSU Penalty, Offensive Holding (Bauer Sharp) to the LSU 20Similar
Q1 3:00
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+3
56.5%
Harlem Berry run for 3 yds to the LSU 23Similar
Q1 3:00
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+2
56.5%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Caden Durham for 2 yds to the LSU 25Similar
Q1 1:50
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+16
56.9%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Barion Brown for 16 yds to the LSU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:05
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+9
55.6%
Harlem Berry run for 9 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 0:49
2ND & 1
50
+15
55.0%
Nussmeier, Garrett pass incomplete to Brown, Barion, PENALTY VAN pass interference (Brown, Tristen) 15 yards to the VAN35, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN LSU.Similar
Q1 0:34
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+1
54.5%
Harlem Berry run for 1 yd to the VAN 34Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 9
OPP 34
+10
54.7%
Harlem Berry run for 10 yds to the VAN 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:50
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+24
49.2%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Trey'Dez Green for 24 yds for a TD (Damian Ramos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 4TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 8:4851% → 60%
Q2 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
51.3%
Sedrick Alexander run for 12 yds to the VAN 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:59
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
51.9%
Diego Pavia pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:50
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+4
51.7%
Makhilyn Young run for 4 yds to the VAN 41Similar
Q2 13:10
3RD & 6
OWN 41
+7
52.2%
Diego Pavia run for 7 yds to the VAN 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:35
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
53.1%
Sedrick Alexander run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 11:45
2ND & 8
50
+13
53.2%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Eli Stowers for 13 yds to the LSU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+6
53.5%
Diego Pavia run for 6 yds to the LSU 31Similar
Q2 10:15
2ND & 4
OPP 31
+4
54.4%
Sedrick Alexander run for 4 yds to the LSU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:30
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+2
54.1%
Sedrick Alexander run for 2 yds to the LSU 25Similar
Q2 8:45
2ND & 8
OPP 25
+21
54.1%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Cole Spence for 21 yds to the LSU 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
53.4%
AJ Newberry run for 1 yd to the LSU 3Similar
Q2 7:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
53.3%
Diego Pavia run for 2 yds to the LSU 1Similar
Q2 6:40
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
52.1%
Diego Pavia run for no gain to the LSU 1Similar
Q2 5:52
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
60.4%
Sedrick Alexander run for 1 yd for a TD (Brock Taylor KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 5MISSED FG
9 plays · 30 yds · 3:1241% → 40%
Q2 5:45
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
59.1%
Harlem Berry run for 9 yds to the LSU 44Similar
Q2 5:00
2ND & 1
OWN 44
0
57.5%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Nic Anderson for no gain to the LSU 44Similar
Q2 4:45
3RD & 1
OWN 44
+19
58.2%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Trey'Dez Green for 19 yds to the VAN 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:15
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+6
57.6%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Trey'Dez Green for 6 yds to the VAN 31Similar
Q2 4:00
2ND & 4
OPP 31
-5
56.1%
LSU Penalty, Illegal Formation (DJ Chester) to the VAN 36Similar
Q2 3:15
2ND & 9
OPP 36
+1
57.9%
Harlem Berry run for 1 yd to the VAN 35Similar
Q2 2:39
3RD & 8
OPP 35
0
58.1%
Garrett Nussmeier pass incomplete to Nic AndersonSimilar
Q2 2:33
4TH & 8
OPP 35
+52
60.3%
Damian Ramos 52 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 6DOWNS
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:4761% → 61%
Q2 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
61.3%
Diego Pavia pass incomplete to Kayleb BarnettSimilar
Q2 2:05
2ND & 10
OWN 35
-2
61.2%
Sedrick Alexander run for a loss of 2 yards to the VAN 33Similar
Q2 1:55
3RD & 12
OWN 33
+11
59.9%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Sedrick Alexander for 11 yds to the VAN 44Similar
Q2 1:43
4TH & 1
OWN 44
-8
61.3%
Diego Pavia sacked by West Weeks for a loss of 8 yards to the VAN 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 7FG
7 plays · 11 yds · 0:4043% → 43%
Q2 1:25
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+2
57.5%
Caden Durham run for 2 yds to the VAN 34Similar
Q2 1:05
2ND & 8
OPP 34
+11
56.3%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Zavion Thomas for 11 yds to the VAN 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:59
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-2
56.0%
Caden Durham run for a loss of 2 yards to the VAN 25Similar
Q2 0:54
2ND & 12
OPP 25
0
56.2%
Garrett Nussmeier pass incomplete to Zavion ThomasSimilar
Q2 0:50
3RD & 12
OPP 25
0
58.8%
Garrett Nussmeier pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:45
4TH & 12
OPP 25
+42
56.7%
Damian Ramos 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 8FG
8 plays · 50 yds · 0:3759% → 63%
Q2 0:39
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+25
58.5%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Junior Sherrill for 25 yds to the VAN 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
61.2%
Diego Pavia pass incomplete to Tre RichardsonSimilar
Q2 0:25
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+16
60.5%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Richie Hoskins for 16 yds to the LSU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:22
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
62.0%
Diego Pavia pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:11
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+9
61.7%
Diego Pavia run for 9 yds to the LSU 28Similar
Q2 0:06
3RD & 1
OPP 28
0
61.4%
Diego Pavia pass incomplete to Eli StowersSimilar
Q2 0:02
4TH & 1
OPP 28
+46
63.0%
Brock Taylor 46 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 9TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 5:4461% → 80%
Q3 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
61.2%
Sedrick Alexander run for 8 yds to the VAN 33Similar
Q3 14:20
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+12
62.7%
Tre Richardson run for 12 yds to the VAN 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:38
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
63.7%
Diego Pavia pass incomplete to Tre RichardsonSimilar
Q3 13:25
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+8
62.9%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Cole Spence for 8 yds to the LSU 47Similar
Q3 12:40
3RD & 2
OPP 47
+28
63.7%
Makhilyn Young run for 28 yds to the LSU 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:05
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+8
65.3%
Tre Richardson run for 8 yds to the LSU 11Similar
Q3 11:15
2ND & 2
OPP 11
+3
65.6%
Sedrick Alexander run for 3 yds to the LSU 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+4
68.6%
Sedrick Alexander run for 4 yds to the LSU 4Similar
Q3 10:05
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
68.9%
Diego Pavia run for 3 yds to the LSU 1Similar
Q3 9:03
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
79.6%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Cole Spence for 1 yd for a TD (Brock Taylor KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 10TD
6 plays · 92 yds · 2:0323% → 41%
Q3 8:55
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+12
77.5%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Trey'Dez Green for 12 yds to the LSU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
77.4%
Harlem Berry run for no gain to the LSU 20Similar
Q3 7:25
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+18
78.2%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Aaron Anderson for 18 yds to the LSU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:07
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
77.1%
Garrett Nussmeier pass incomplete to Barion BrownSimilar
Q3 6:52
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+62
59.4%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Zavion Thomas for 62 yds for a TD (Garrett Nussmeier pass to Trey'Dez Green for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 11TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 6:1863% → 85%
Q3 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
62.8%
Sedrick Alexander run for 9 yds to the VAN 34Similar
Q3 5:50
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+3
64.9%
Makhilyn Young run for 3 yds to the VAN 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
64.1%
Makhilyn Young run for 1 yd to the VAN 38Similar
Q3 4:30
2ND & 9
OWN 38
+8
64.1%
Diego Pavia run for 8 yds to the VAN 46Similar
Q3 3:54
3RD & 1
OWN 46
0
65.2%
Diego Pavia pass incomplete to Eli StowersSimilar
Q3 3:36
4TH & 1
OWN 46
+10
63.7%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Makhilyn Young for 10 yds to the LSU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:05
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+2
67.4%
AJ Newberry run for 2 yds to the LSU 42Similar
Q3 2:35
2ND & 8
OPP 42
-5
67.4%
Vanderbilt Penalty, False Start (Chase Mitchell) to the LSU 47Similar
Q3 2:05
2ND & 13
OPP 47
+15
65.8%
Pavia, Diego pass incomplete to Hoskins, Richie, PENALTY LSU pass interference (Spears, Dashawn) 15 yards to the LSU32, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN VAN.Similar
Q3 1:40
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+6
68.8%
Makhilyn Young run for 6 yds to the LSU 26Similar
Q3 1:15
2ND & 4
OPP 26
+5
69.0%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Junior Sherrill for 5 yds to the LSU 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:27
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+21
84.5%
Diego Pavia run for 21 yds for a TD (Brock Taylor KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 12FG
12 plays · 69 yds · 3:2117% → 21%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
83.2%
Harlem Berry run for 5 yds to the LSU 30Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+13
81.8%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Trey'Dez Green for 13 yds to the LSU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:15
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+4
81.4%
Caden Durham run for 4 yds to the LSU 47Similar
Q4 13:43
2ND & 6
OWN 47
0
81.0%
Garrett Nussmeier pass incomplete to Barion BrownSimilar
Q4 13:25
3RD & 6
OWN 47
+51
81.6%
Caden Durham run for 51 yds to the VAN 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
78.8%
Caden Durham run for 1 yd to the VAN 1Similar
Q4 12:37
2ND & 0
OPP 1
-4
80.7%
LSU Penalty, False Start (Donovan Green) to the VAN 5Similar
Q4 12:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
-1
82.1%
Ju'Juan Johnson run for a loss of 1 yard to the VAN 6Similar
Q4 11:43
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
0
83.4%
Garrett Nussmeier pass incomplete to Kyle ParkerSimilar
Q4 11:39
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+23
79.5%
Damian Ramos 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 13PUNT
6 plays · 3 yds · 2:4085% → 86%
Q4 11:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-8
85.3%
Tre Richardson run for 2 yds to the VAN 27 Vanderbilt Penalty, Offensive Holding (Bryce Henderson) to the VAN 17Similar
Q4 11:00
1ST & 18
OWN 17
+5
85.5%
Diego Pavia run for 5 yds to the VAN 22Similar
Q4 10:10
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+1
86.2%
Diego Pavia run for 1 yd to the VAN 23Similar
Q4 9:20
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+5
85.9%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Sedrick Alexander for 5 yds to the VAN 28Similar
Q4 8:55
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
85.9%
Nick Haberer punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Zavion Thomas at the LSU 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · -12 yds · 2:1718% → 11%
Q4 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-10
81.7%
Garrett Nussmeier sacked by Zaylin Wood for a loss of 10 yards to the LSU 20Similar
Q4 8:00
2ND & 20
OWN 20
+4
83.6%
Harlem Berry run for 4 yds to the LSU 24Similar
Q4 7:30
3RD & 16
OWN 24
-10
86.4%
LSU Penalty, Offensive Holding (Weston Davis) to the LSU 14Similar
Q4 6:55
3RD & 26
OWN 14
+4
87.8%
Harlem Berry run for 4 yds to the LSU 18Similar
Q4 6:28
4TH & 22
OWN 18
0
88.6%
Grant Chadwick punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Martel Hight at the VAN 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:2091% → 91%
Q4 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-3
91.4%
Diego Pavia run for a loss of 3 yards to the VAN 40Similar
Q4 5:30
2ND & 13
OWN 40
+7
91.6%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Cole Spence for 7 yds to the VAN 47Similar
Q4 4:48
3RD & 6
OWN 47
0
91.8%
Diego Pavia pass incomplete to Tre RichardsonSimilar
Q4 4:40
4TH & 6
OWN 47
0
91.2%
Nick Haberer punt for 53 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:0812% → 9%
Q4 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-3
88.5%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Ju'Juan Johnson for a loss of 3 yards to the LSU 17Similar
Q4 3:50
2ND & 13
OWN 17
+5
88.9%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Zavion Thomas for 5 yds to the LSU 22Similar
Q4 3:24
3RD & 8
OWN 22
0
90.0%
Garrett Nussmeier pass incomplete to Barion BrownSimilar
Q4 3:12
4TH & 8
OWN 22
+17
90.6%
Grant Chadwick punt for 53 yds , Martel Hight returns for 17 yds to the VAN 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 17END OF GAME
9 plays · 54 yds · 3:0395% → 97%
Q4 3:03
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+43
94.7%
Makhilyn Young run for 43 yds to the LSU 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:33
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
95.5%
Diego Pavia run for no gain to the LSU 15Similar
Q4 2:26
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+3
96.0%
Diego Pavia run for 3 yds to the LSU 12Similar
Q4 2:00
3RD & 7
OPP 12
+11
96.2%
Diego Pavia run for 11 yds to the LSU 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
96.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the LSU 2Similar
Q4 0:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
-1
97.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the LSU 3Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
-1
97.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the LSU 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 6:52
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Zavion Thomas for 62 yds for a TD (Garrett Nussmeier pass to Trey'Dez Green for Two-Point Conversion)
-17.7
TD · Q3 0:27
Diego Pavia run for 21 yds for a TD (Brock Taylor KICK)
+15.6
TD · Q3 9:03
Diego Pavia pass complete to Cole Spence for 1 yd for a TD (Brock Taylor KICK)
+10.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com