LSU
LSU 24 at Vanderbilt 31
VAN2025 · Week 8 · Oct 18, 2025 · FirstBank Stadium
Speed4x
Win probability · VAN
modelVAN aheadLSU aheadconfidence bandkey play
What moved it - hover a play below
Q4 0:00 · TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the LSU 4
VAN has the ball
+19
Blowout context favors the offense
+9
Market gave VAN a 54% pregame chance
−7
VAN leading by 7
+2
0:00 left in regulation
+0
Pregame market line was available
+0
Defense has 0 timeouts left
+0
Ball at LSU 3
+0
Still in regulation
+0
3rd down
+0
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
LSU · Drive 1FG · 14 plays · 44 yds
Q1 15:00
Justin Dewers kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
0.0
Q1 14:55
Caden Durham run for no gain to the LSU 25
-2.8
Q1 14:15
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Barion Brown for 4 yds to the LSU 29
-0.6
Q1 13:50
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Kyle Parker for 11 yds to the LSU 40 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q1 13:15
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Barion Brown for 2 yds to the LSU 42
-1.1
Q1 12:40
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Barion Brown for 12 yds to the VAN 46 for a 1ST down
-0.3
Q1 12:20
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Barion Brown for 6 yds to the VAN 40
-1.1
Q1 11:35
Caden Durham run for 3 yds to the VAN 37
-0.1
Q1 10:55
Harlem Berry run for 9 yds to the VAN 28 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q1 10:00
Garrett Nussmeier sacked by Keanu Koht for a loss of 3 yards to the VAN 31
0.0
Q1 9:41
Garrett Nussmeier pass incomplete to Zavion Thomas
0.0
Q1 9:40
Timeout LSU, clock 09:40
-1.5
Q1 9:36
Garrett Nussmeier pass incomplete to Trey'Dez Green
0.0
Q1 9:32
Damian Ramos 48 yd FG GOOD
-3.7
VAN · Drive 2TD · 13 plays · 57 yds
Q1 9:32
Aeron Burrell kickoff for 65 yds , Tre Richardson return for 43 yds to the VAN 43
+1.2
Q1 9:15
Sedrick Alexander run for 1 yd to the VAN 44
+7.5
Q1 8:30
Diego Pavia pass complete to Eli Stowers for 5 yds to the VAN 49
-0.1
Q1 7:50
Diego Pavia pass complete to Cole Spence for 19 yds to the LSU 32 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q1 7:00
Kayleb Barnett run for 4 yds to the LSU 28
+1.9
Q1 6:20
Sedrick Alexander run for a loss of 2 yards to the LSU 30
-0.3
Q1 5:45
Diego Pavia pass complete to Eli Stowers for 14 yds to the LSU 16 for a 1ST down
-2.4
Q1 5:05
Sedrick Alexander run for no gain to the LSU 16
+0.2
Q1 4:26
Timeout Vanderbilt, clock 04:26
-1.6
Q1 4:26
Vanderbilt Penalty, False Start (Bryce Henderson) to the LSU 21
0.0
Q1 4:14
Diego Pavia run for 20 yds to the LSU 1 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q1 4:04
LSU Penalty, Defensive Offside (Jacobian Guillory II) to the LSU 1
0.0
Q1 3:38
Diego Pavia run for 1 yd for a TD (Brock Taylor KICK)
+12.4
LSU · Drive 3TD · 10 plays · 75 yds
Q1 3:38
Justin Dewers kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
-1.5
Q1 3:30
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Ju'Juan Johnson for 5 yds to the LSU 30 LSU Penalty, Offensive Holding (Bauer Sharp) to the LSU 20
-4.0
Q1 3:00
Harlem Berry run for 3 yds to the LSU 23
0.0
Q1 3:00
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Caden Durham for 2 yds to the LSU 25
0.0
Q1 1:50
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Barion Brown for 16 yds to the LSU 41 for a 1ST down
+1.2
Q1 1:05
Harlem Berry run for 9 yds to the 50 yard line
-1.2
Q1 0:49
Nussmeier, Garrett pass incomplete to Brown, Barion, PENALTY VAN pass interference (Brown, Tristen) 15 yards to the VAN35, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN LSU.
-1.1
Q1 0:34
Harlem Berry run for 1 yd to the VAN 34
-0.8
Q1 0:00
Harlem Berry run for 10 yds to the VAN 24 for a 1ST down
-0.1
Q2 14:50
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Trey'Dez Green for 24 yds for a TD (Damian Ramos KICK)
-14.6
VAN · Drive 4TD · 15 plays · 75 yds
Q2 14:50
Aeron Burrell kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
+1.7
Q2 14:40
Sedrick Alexander run for 12 yds to the VAN 37 for a 1ST down
+7.0
Q2 13:59
Diego Pavia pass incomplete
0.0
Q2 13:50
Makhilyn Young run for 4 yds to the VAN 41
0.0
Q2 13:10
Diego Pavia run for 7 yds to the VAN 48 for a 1ST down
+0.4
Q2 12:35
Sedrick Alexander run for 2 yds to the 50 yard line
+0.5
Q2 11:45
Diego Pavia pass complete to Eli Stowers for 13 yds to the LSU 37 for a 1ST down
-0.2
Q2 11:00
Diego Pavia run for 6 yds to the LSU 31
+1.7
Q2 10:15
Sedrick Alexander run for 4 yds to the LSU 27 for a 1ST down
-2.1
Q2 9:30
Sedrick Alexander run for 2 yds to the LSU 25
0.0
Q2 8:45
Diego Pavia pass complete to Cole Spence for 21 yds to the LSU 4 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q2 8:00
AJ Newberry run for 1 yd to the LSU 3
-1.8
Q2 7:15
Diego Pavia run for 2 yds to the LSU 1
0.0
Q2 6:40
Diego Pavia run for no gain to the LSU 1
-0.2
Q2 5:52
Sedrick Alexander run for 1 yd for a TD (Brock Taylor KICK)
+18.4
LSU · Drive 5MISSED FG · 9 plays · 30 yds
Q2 5:52
Justin Dewers kickoff for 64 yds
-1.1
Q2 5:45
Harlem Berry run for 9 yds to the LSU 44
-3.5
Q2 5:00
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Nic Anderson for no gain to the LSU 44
-1.8
Q2 4:45
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Trey'Dez Green for 19 yds to the VAN 37 for a 1ST down
+0.2
Q2 4:15
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Trey'Dez Green for 6 yds to the VAN 31
-1.3
Q2 4:00
LSU Penalty, Illegal Formation (DJ Chester) to the VAN 36
0.0
Q2 3:15
Harlem Berry run for 1 yd to the VAN 35
0.0
Q2 2:39
Garrett Nussmeier pass incomplete to Nic Anderson
0.0
Q2 2:33
Damian Ramos 52 yd FG MISSED
+0.8
VAN · Drive 6DOWNS · 4 plays · 1 yds
Q2 2:30
Diego Pavia pass incomplete to Kayleb Barnett
+7.1
Q2 2:05
Sedrick Alexander run for a loss of 2 yards to the VAN 33
-0.1
Q2 1:55
Diego Pavia pass complete to Sedrick Alexander for 11 yds to the VAN 44
0.0
Q2 1:43
Diego Pavia sacked by West Weeks for a loss of 8 yards to the VAN 36
-0.3
LSU · Drive 7FG · 7 plays · 11 yds
Q2 1:25
Caden Durham run for 2 yds to the VAN 34
-7.6
Q2 1:05
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Zavion Thomas for 11 yds to the VAN 23 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q2 0:59
Caden Durham run for a loss of 2 yards to the VAN 25
0.0
Q2 0:59
Timeout Vanderbilt, clock 00:59
0.0
Q2 0:54
Garrett Nussmeier pass incomplete to Zavion Thomas
0.0
Q2 0:50
Garrett Nussmeier pass incomplete
0.0
Q2 0:45
Damian Ramos 42 yd FG GOOD
-4.4
VAN · Drive 8FG · 8 plays · 50 yds
Q2 0:45
Aeron Burrell kickoff for 59 yds , Tre Richardson return for 16 yds to the VAN 22
+2.3
Q2 0:39
Diego Pavia pass complete to Junior Sherrill for 25 yds to the VAN 47 for a 1ST down
+5.5
Q2 0:30
Diego Pavia pass incomplete to Tre Richardson
+0.8
Q2 0:25
Diego Pavia pass complete to Richie Hoskins for 16 yds to the LSU 37 for a 1ST down
-0.2
Q2 0:22
Diego Pavia pass incomplete
+0.7
Q2 0:11
Diego Pavia run for 9 yds to the LSU 28
0.0
Q2 0:06
Diego Pavia pass incomplete to Eli Stowers
-0.2
Q2 0:02
Brock Taylor 46 yd FG GOOD
+3.6
VAN · Drive 9TD · 11 plays · 75 yds
Q3 15:00
Aeron Burrell kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
-6.2
Q3 14:47
Sedrick Alexander run for 8 yds to the VAN 33
+6.0
Q3 14:20
Tre Richardson run for 12 yds to the VAN 45 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q3 13:38
Diego Pavia pass incomplete to Tre Richardson
+0.8
Q3 13:25
Diego Pavia pass complete to Cole Spence for 8 yds to the LSU 47
0.0
Q3 12:40
Makhilyn Young run for 28 yds to the LSU 19 for a 1ST down
+0.2
Q3 12:05
Tre Richardson run for 8 yds to the LSU 11
+0.6
Q3 11:15
Sedrick Alexander run for 3 yds to the LSU 8 for a 1ST down
+1.2
Q3 10:35
Sedrick Alexander run for 4 yds to the LSU 4
0.0
Q3 10:05
Diego Pavia run for 3 yds to the LSU 1
+0.3
Q3 9:03
Diego Pavia pass complete to Cole Spence for 1 yd for a TD (Brock Taylor KICK)
+14.4
LSU · Drive 10TD · 6 plays · 92 yds
Q3 9:03
Justin Dewers kickoff for 65 yds , Barion Brown return for 16 yds to the LSU 49 LSU Penalty, Offensive Holding (8 Yards) to the LSU 8
-0.3
Q3 8:55
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Trey'Dez Green for 12 yds to the LSU 20 for a 1ST down
-1.0
Q3 8:15
Harlem Berry run for no gain to the LSU 20
0.0
Q3 7:25
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Aaron Anderson for 18 yds to the LSU 38 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q3 7:07
Garrett Nussmeier pass incomplete to Barion Brown
0.0
Q3 6:52
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Zavion Thomas for 62 yds for a TD (Garrett Nussmeier pass to Trey'Dez Green for Two-Point Conversion)
-24.7
VAN · Drive 11TD · 13 plays · 75 yds
Q3 6:52
Aeron Burrell kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
+0.9
Q3 6:45
Sedrick Alexander run for 9 yds to the VAN 34
+7.1
Q3 5:50
Makhilyn Young run for 3 yds to the VAN 37 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q3 4:50
Makhilyn Young run for 1 yd to the VAN 38
+0.5
Q3 4:30
Diego Pavia run for 8 yds to the VAN 46
+0.1
Q3 3:54
Diego Pavia pass incomplete to Eli Stowers
-0.1
Q3 3:36
Diego Pavia pass complete to Makhilyn Young for 10 yds to the LSU 44 for a 1ST down
-0.6
Q3 3:05
AJ Newberry run for 2 yds to the LSU 42
+1.9
Q3 2:35
Vanderbilt Penalty, False Start (Chase Mitchell) to the LSU 47
+0.4
Q3 2:05
Pavia, Diego pass incomplete to Hoskins, Richie, PENALTY LSU pass interference (Spears, Dashawn) 15 yards to the LSU32, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN VAN.
-0.4
Q3 1:40
Makhilyn Young run for 6 yds to the LSU 26
+0.4
Q3 1:15
Diego Pavia pass complete to Junior Sherrill for 5 yds to the LSU 21 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q3 0:27
Diego Pavia run for 21 yds for a TD (Brock Taylor KICK)
+16.6
LSU · Drive 12FG · 12 plays · 69 yds
Q3 0:27
Justin Dewers kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
-0.5
Q3 0:00
Harlem Berry run for 5 yds to the LSU 30
+1.9
Q4 14:55
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Trey'Dez Green for 13 yds to the LSU 43 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q4 14:15
Caden Durham run for 4 yds to the LSU 47
0.0
Q4 13:43
Garrett Nussmeier pass incomplete to Barion Brown
-0.1
Q4 13:25
Caden Durham run for 51 yds to the VAN 2 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q4 13:10
Caden Durham run for 1 yd to the VAN 1
-1.2
Q4 12:37
Timeout LSU, clock 12:37
+0.1
Q4 12:37
LSU Penalty, False Start (Donovan Green) to the VAN 5
0.0
Q4 12:00
Ju'Juan Johnson run for a loss of 1 yard to the VAN 6
+0.4
Q4 11:43
Garrett Nussmeier pass incomplete to Kyle Parker
0.0
Q4 11:39
Damian Ramos 23 yd FG GOOD
-7.4
VAN · Drive 13PUNT · 6 plays · 3 yds
Q4 11:39
Aeron Burrell kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
+1.2
Q4 11:35
Tre Richardson run for 2 yds to the VAN 27 Vanderbilt Penalty, Offensive Holding (Bryce Henderson) to the VAN 17
+5.0
Q4 11:00
Diego Pavia run for 5 yds to the VAN 22
+0.2
Q4 10:10
Diego Pavia run for 1 yd to the VAN 23
0.0
Q4 9:20
Diego Pavia pass complete to Sedrick Alexander for 5 yds to the VAN 28
0.0
Q4 8:55
Nick Haberer punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Zavion Thomas at the LSU 30
-0.5
LSU · Drive 14PUNT · 5 plays · -12 yds
Q4 8:45
Garrett Nussmeier sacked by Zaylin Wood for a loss of 10 yards to the LSU 20
-4.3
Q4 8:00
Harlem Berry run for 4 yds to the LSU 24
+2.6
Q4 7:30
LSU Penalty, Offensive Holding (Weston Davis) to the LSU 14
+1.5
Q4 6:55
Harlem Berry run for 4 yds to the LSU 18
0.0
Q4 6:28
Grant Chadwick punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Martel Hight at the VAN 43
0.0
VAN · Drive 15PUNT · 4 plays · 4 yds
Q4 6:00
Diego Pavia run for a loss of 3 yards to the VAN 40
+3.7
Q4 5:30
Diego Pavia pass complete to Cole Spence for 7 yds to the VAN 47
+0.7
Q4 4:48
Diego Pavia pass incomplete to Tre Richardson
+0.4
Q4 4:40
Nick Haberer punt for 53 yds for a touchback
0.0
LSU · Drive 16PUNT · 4 plays · 2 yds
Q4 4:20
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Ju'Juan Johnson for a loss of 3 yards to the LSU 17
-4.0
Q4 3:50
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Zavion Thomas for 5 yds to the LSU 22
0.0
Q4 3:24
Garrett Nussmeier pass incomplete to Barion Brown
+2.1
Q4 3:12
Grant Chadwick punt for 53 yds , Martel Hight returns for 17 yds to the VAN 42
+0.7
VAN · Drive 17END OF GAME · 9 plays · 54 yds
Q4 3:03
Makhilyn Young run for 43 yds to the LSU 15 for a 1ST down
+3.6
Q4 2:33
Diego Pavia run for no gain to the LSU 15
+0.4
Q4 2:33
Timeout LSU, clock 02:33
0.0
Q4 2:26
Diego Pavia run for 3 yds to the LSU 12
+0.2
Q4 2:26
Timeout LSU, clock 02:26
0.0
Q4 2:00
Diego Pavia run for 11 yds to the LSU 1 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q4 1:30
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the LSU 2
+0.5
Q4 0:40
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the LSU 3
0.0
Q4 0:00
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the LSU 4
+0.2
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 6:52
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Zavion Thomas for 62 yds for a TD (Garrett Nussmeier pass to Trey'Dez Green for Two-Point Conversion)
-24.7
TD · Q2 5:52
Sedrick Alexander run for 1 yd for a TD (Brock Taylor KICK)
+18.4
TD · Q3 0:27
Diego Pavia run for 21 yds for a TD (Brock Taylor KICK)
+16.6