Try the model
OU

Oklahoma 26 at South Carolina 7

SC
2025 · Week 8 · Oct 18, 2025 · Williams-Brice Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · SC
modelSC aheadOU aheadconfidence bandkey playSC scoreOU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDFGFGTDSAFETYEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 0:26 · Grayson Miller punt for 42 yds , Vicari Swain returns for 19 yds to the OU 48
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+53.5+26.80−26.8−53.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 36Home team on offense−3.4Score differential−1.2Pregame prior−10.2Garbage-time factor−1.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.9Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−1.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 9:21: Xavier Robinson run for 10 yds for a TD (Tate Sandell KICK) — OU win probability +7.4 pts (now 75%) (top driver: OU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 9:21: Timeout South Carolina, clock 09:21 — OU win probability +2.1 pts (now 77%) (top driver: SC has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 1:43: LaNorris Sellers pass complete to Nyck Harbor for 2 yds for a TD (William Joyce KICK) — SC win probability +21.4 pts (now 39%) (top driver: SC has the ball).
  4. FG · Q3 6:01: Tate Sandell 55 yd FG GOOD — OU win probability +2.6 pts (now 78%) (top driver: OU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 2:06: John Mateer pass complete to Isaiah Sategna III for 20 yds for a TD (Tate Sandell KICK) — OU win probability +11.5 pts (now 94%) (top driver: OU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
SC made the numbers' call on 10 of 13OU made the numbers' call on 6 of 9
  1. Q1 6:43SC 4th & 1 at OU 45, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 40.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    40.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    39.2%−0.9
    25% to make
    Punt
    39.6%−0.6
    average punt
  2. Q1 4:40SC 4th & 5 at OU 5, down 7
    Close callWent for it · 40.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    39.8%−<0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    39.9%
    92% to make
    Punt
    37.6%−2.2
    average punt
  3. Q1 0:26OU 4th & 11 at OU 25, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.2%−1.0
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.2%
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:38SC 4th & 9 at OU 47, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.5%−0.3
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.9%
    average punt
  5. Q2 7:02SC 4th & 19 at SC 16, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.2%−1.6
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.8%
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:02SC 4th & 19 at SC 16, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.2%−1.6
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.8%
    average punt
  7. Q2 5:49OU 4th & 5 at OU 29, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.5%−0.7
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.2%
    average punt
  8. Q2 3:25SC 4th & 2 at OU 17, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 28.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    28.1%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    27.4%−0.7
    80% to make
    Punt
    24.2%−3.8
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:43SC 4th & 2 at OU 2, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 26.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    26.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    25.3%−0.9
    94% to make
    Punt
    21.5%−4.7
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:22OU 4th & 14 at OU 34, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.4%−2.0
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.4%
    average punt
  11. Q3 13:23SC 4th & 1 at SC 34, down 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.5 ptsPunted · 33.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.5%−1.5
    average punt
  12. Q3 9:42OU 4th & 4 at SC 43, up 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.4 ptsPunted · 69.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    67.3%−2.6
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    68.4%−1.4
    average punt
  13. Q3 8:07SC 4th & 6 at SC 7, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.9%−1.2
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.2%
    average punt
  14. Q3 6:01OU 4th & 4 at SC 37, up 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.0 ptsKicked a field goal · 71.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    69.9%−2.0
    40% to make
    Punt
    69.5%−2.4
    average punt
  15. Q3 4:16SC 4th & 2 at SC 48, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 24.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    25.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    23.9%−1.6
    average punt
  16. Q3 0:44SC 4th & 11 at SC 24, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.6%−2.1
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.7%
    average punt
  17. Q3 0:44SC 4th & 11 at SC 24, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.6%−2.1
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.7%
    average punt
  18. Q4 11:24OU 4th & 17 at OU 33, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.7%−1.9
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.7%
    average punt
  19. Q4 11:24OU 4th & 17 at OU 33, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.7%−1.9
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.7%
    average punt
  20. Q4 8:08SC 4th & 10 at SC 41, down 17
    Close callWent for it · 5.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.1%−0.5
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    5.5%
    average punt
  21. Q4 4:27OU 4th & 6 at SC 41, up 17
    Close callPunted · 96.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.9%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    96.5%−0.4
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    96.6%−0.3
    average punt
  22. Q4 2:37OU 4th & 12 at OU 48, up 19
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.6%−0.1
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.7%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
SC made the numbers' call on 1 of 1OU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 9:42OU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    59.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 9:21OU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 1:43SC Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    32.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    32.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 2:06OU Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
OUDrive 1TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 5:1463% → 64%
Q1 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
36.8%
John Mateer pass incomplete to Isaiah Sategna IIISimilar
Q1 14:50
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-10
36.8%
(14:41) Shotgun Mateer,John pass complete short right to Burks,Deion caught at OU29, for 4 yards to the OU29 (Cisse,Brandon) PENALTY OU Holding (Fasusi,Michael) 10 yards from OU25 to OU15. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 14:18
2ND & 20
OWN 15
+18
37.0%
Tory Blaylock run for 18 yds to the OU 33Similar
Q1 13:52
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+11
37.1%
John Mateer pass complete to Deion Burks for 11 yds to the OU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:54
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+5
37.4%
John Mateer pass complete to JaVonnie Gibson for 5 yds to the OU 49Similar
Q1 12:22
2ND & 5
OWN 49
+16
37.5%
John Mateer pass complete to Jaren Kanak for 16 yds to the SC 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:40
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+3
37.6%
Tory Blaylock run for 3 yds to the SC 32Similar
Q1 10:58
2ND & 7
OPP 32
+5
37.6%
John Mateer run for 5 yds to the SC 27Similar
Q1 10:40
3RD & 2
OPP 27
+3
37.9%
John Mateer pass complete to JaVonnie Gibson for 3 yds to the SC 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:07
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+6
37.9%
Tory Blaylock run for 6 yds to the SC 18Similar
Q1 9:42
2ND & 4
OPP 18
+18
36.3%
Tory Blaylock run for 18 yds for a TD (Tate Sandell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 2DOWNS
12 plays · 72 yds · 4:3837% → 37%
Q1 9:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
36.7%
LaNorris Sellers pass complete to Nyck Harbor for 9 yds to the SC 34Similar
Q1 8:54
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+12
36.8%
LaNorris Sellers pass complete to Nyck Harbor for 12 yds to the SC 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:32
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
37.0%
Rahsul Faison run for 2 yds to the SC 48Similar
Q1 7:58
2ND & 8
OWN 48
+5
37.1%
LaNorris Sellers pass complete to Jayden Sellers for 5 yds to the OU 47Similar
Q1 7:23
3RD & 3
OPP 47
+2
37.2%
Rahsul Faison run for 2 yds to the OU 45Similar
Q1 6:43
4TH & 1
OPP 45
+36
36.8%
Rahsul Faison run for 36 yds to the OU 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+3
37.4%
Rahsul Faison run for 3 yds to the OU 6Similar
Q1 5:43
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
37.4%
Rahsul Faison run for 3 yds to the OU 3Similar
Q1 5:01
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
-2
37.0%
Rahsul Faison run for a loss of 2 yards to the OU 5Similar
Q1 4:40
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
36.5%
LaNorris Sellers run for 2 yds to the OU 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 3PUNT
11 plays · 22 yds · 3:5364% → 64%
Q1 4:19
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+13
36.2%
Tory Blaylock run for 13 yds to the OU 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:34
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+1
35.9%
Tory Blaylock run for 1 yd to the OU 17Similar
Q1 3:05
2ND & 9
OWN 17
+2
36.0%
Tory Blaylock run for 2 yds to the OU 19Similar
Q1 2:51
3RD & 7
OWN 19
+7
36.2%
John Mateer pass complete to JaVonnie Gibson for 7 yds to the OU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:19
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+4
35.5%
Xavier Robinson run for 4 yds to the OU 30Similar
Q1 1:45
2ND & 6
OWN 30
+1
35.0%
Tory Blaylock run for 1 yd to the OU 31Similar
Q1 0:58
3RD & 5
OWN 31
+4
35.1%
John Mateer pass complete to JaVonnie Gibson for 4 yds to the OU 35Similar
Q1 0:37
4TH & 1
OWN 35
-5
35.2%
PENALTY OU Delay Of Game 5 yards from OU35 to OU30. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 0:37
4TH & 6
OWN 30
-5
36.2%
(00:37) PENALTY OU False Start (Powers III,Reggie) 5 yards from OU30 to OU25. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 0:26
4TH & 11
OWN 25
+19
36.3%
Grayson Miller punt for 42 yds , Vicari Swain returns for 19 yds to the OU 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:2636% → 35%
Q1 0:04
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-1
36.2%
LaNorris Sellers run for a loss of 1 yard to the OU 49Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 11
OPP 49
+5
35.4%
LaNorris Sellers run for 5 yds to the OU 44Similar
Q2 14:38
3RD & 6
OPP 44
-3
36.0%
Oscar Adaway III run for a loss of 3 yards to the OU 47Similar
Q2 14:38
4TH & 9
OPP 47
0
34.6%
Mason Love punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Isaiah Sategna III at the OU 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 5TD
15 plays · 92 yds · 4:5764% → 75%
Q2 14:18
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+5
35.6%
Tory Blaylock run for 5 yds to the OU 13Similar
Q2 13:37
2ND & 5
OWN 13
+5
35.4%
John Mateer pass complete to JaVonnie Gibson for 5 yds to the OU 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:06
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+4
35.2%
Tory Blaylock run for 4 yds to the OU 22Similar
Q2 12:51
2ND & 6
OWN 22
0
34.9%
John Mateer pass incomplete to Isaiah Sategna IIISimilar
Q2 12:28
3RD & 6
OWN 22
+10
35.6%
John Mateer pass complete to Isaiah Sategna III for 10 yds to the OU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:58
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+6
34.3%
Tory Blaylock run for 6 yds to the OU 38Similar
Q2 11:50
2ND & 4
OWN 38
+8
33.6%
John Mateer pass complete to Isaiah Sategna III for 8 yds to the OU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:55
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+25
33.3%
Xavier Robinson run for 25 yds to the SC 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:34
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+5
32.5%
Xavier Robinson run for 5 yds to the SC 24Similar
Q2 9:59
2ND & 5
OPP 24
0
32.2%
John Mateer pass incomplete to JaVonnie GibsonSimilar
Q2 9:50
3RD & 5
OPP 24
+8
32.5%
John Mateer pass complete to Deion Burks for 8 yds to the SC 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:42
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+6
32.1%
John Mateer pass complete to Isaiah Sategna III for 6 yds to the SC 10Similar
Q2 9:21
2ND & 4
OPP 10
+10
24.7%
Xavier Robinson run for 10 yds for a TD (Tate Sandell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 6PUNT
6 plays · -9 yds · 1:5422% → 21%
Q2 8:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-4
22.4%
LaNorris Sellers sacked by Damonic Williams for a loss of 4 yards to the SC 21Similar
Q2 8:19
2ND & 14
OWN 21
-12
21.8%
LaNorris Sellers sacked by Gracen Halton for a loss of 12 yards to the SC 9Similar
Q2 7:32
3RD & 26
OWN 9
+7
21.3%
LaNorris Sellers pass complete to Rahsul Faison for 7 yds to the SC 16Similar
Q2 7:02
4TH & 19
OWN 16
0
20.8%
Mason Love punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Isaiah Sategna III at the OU 39Similar
Q2 7:02
4TH & 19
OWN 16
0
20.8%
Mason Love punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Isaiah Sategna III at the OU 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:5378% → 78%
Q2 6:42
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+4
21.7%
Tory Blaylock run for 4 yds to the OU 28Similar
Q2 6:21
2ND & 6
OWN 28
+1
21.4%
Tory Blaylock run for 1 yd to the OU 29Similar
Q2 5:56
3RD & 5
OWN 29
0
21.3%
John Mateer pass incomplete to Isaiah Sategna IIISimilar
Q2 5:49
4TH & 5
OWN 29
0
22.1%
Grayson Miller punt for 18 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the OU 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 8TD
16 plays · 47 yds · 3:5920% → 39%
Q2 5:42
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+22
20.3%
LaNorris Sellers pass complete to Jayden Sellers for 7 yds to the OU 40 for a 1ST down Oklahoma Penalty, (15 Yards) to the OU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:17
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+7
20.8%
LaNorris Sellers run for 7 yds to the OU 18Similar
Q2 5:10
2ND & 3
OPP 18
+2
20.8%
LaNorris Sellers pass complete to Vandrevius Jacobs for 2 yds to the OU 16Similar
Q2 4:13
3RD & 1
OPP 16
-1
19.5%
Matt Fuller run for a loss of 1 yard to the OU 17Similar
Q2 3:25
4TH & 2
OPP 17
+2
19.5%
LaNorris Sellers run for 2 yds to the OU 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:03
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-3
20.2%
LaNorris Sellers sacked by Kobie McKinzie for a loss of 3 yards to the OU 18Similar
Q2 2:25
2ND & 13
OPP 18
+4
19.7%
LaNorris Sellers run for 4 yds to the OU 14Similar
Q2 2:09
3RD & 9
OPP 14
+12
18.9%
(01:59) No Huddle-Shotgun Sellers,LaNorris pass incomplete short left to Sellers,Jayden thrown to OU00 PENALTY OU Pass Interference 12 yards from OU14 to OU02, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
19.7%
(01:53) No Huddle-Shotgun Sellers,LaNorris pass incomplete short left to Harbor,Nyck thrown to OU00 PENALTY OU Pass Interference (Bowen,Eli) 1 yard from OU02 to OU01, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
20.1%
Matt Fuller run for no gain to the OU 1Similar
Q2 1:52
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
18.1%
Matt Fuller run for no gain to the OU 1Similar
Q2 1:48
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
17.2%
Matt Fuller run for a loss of 1 yard to the OU 2Similar
Q2 1:43
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
39.2%
LaNorris Sellers pass complete to Nyck Harbor for 2 yds for a TD (William Joyce KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 9PUNT
9 plays · 9 yds · 0:5764% → 62%
Q2 1:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
35.9%
Xavier Robinson run for 5 yds to the OU 30Similar
Q2 1:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+8
36.5%
John Mateer pass complete to Xavier Robinson for 8 yds to the OU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:48
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-10
34.7%
(00:55) No Huddle-Shotgun Mateer,John pass incomplete short right to Kanak,Jaren thrown to USC48 PENALTY OU Holding (Fasusi,Michael) 10 yards from OU38 to OU28. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:41
1ST & 20
OWN 28
0
36.3%
Oklahoma Penalty, (Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 0:35
2ND & 20
OWN 28
+6
36.9%
John Mateer pass complete to Isaiah Sategna III for 6 yds to the OU 34Similar
Q2 0:24
3RD & 14
OWN 34
0
37.5%
John Mateer pass incomplete to Isaiah Sategna IIISimilar
Q2 0:22
4TH & 14
OWN 34
+31
38.0%
Grayson Miller punt for 50 yds , Vicari Swain returns for 31 yds to the SC 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 10END OF HALF
5 plays · 26 yds · 0:2140% → 41%
Q2 0:21
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+9
40.4%
LaNorris Sellers pass complete to Brady Hunt for 9 yds to the OU 44Similar
Q2 0:17
2ND & 1
OPP 44
+8
41.3%
LaNorris Sellers pass complete to Brady Hunt for 8 yds to the OU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:15
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
41.4%
LaNorris Sellers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+9
40.6%
LaNorris Sellers pass complete to Brady Hunt for 9 yds to the OU 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:1733% → 32%
Q3 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
33.2%
Rahsul Faison run for 2 yds to the SC 27Similar
Q3 14:09
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+7
33.4%
LaNorris Sellers pass complete to Mazeo Bennett Jr. for 7 yds to the SC 34Similar
Q3 13:45
3RD & 1
OWN 34
0
33.9%
Rahsul Faison run for no gain to the SC 34Similar
Q3 13:23
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
32.3%
Mason Love punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Isaiah Sategna III at the OU 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 12PUNT
9 plays · 42 yds · 3:1869% → 70%
Q3 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+2
31.4%
John Mateer run for 2 yds to the OU 17Similar
Q3 12:21
2ND & 8
OWN 17
+4
31.5%
John Mateer pass complete to Isaiah Sategna III for 4 yds to the OU 21Similar
Q3 12:00
3RD & 4
OWN 21
+7
32.0%
John Mateer run for 7 yds to the OU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:42
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+4
30.5%
Tory Blaylock run for 4 yds to the OU 32Similar
Q3 11:01
2ND & 6
OWN 32
+19
29.9%
John Mateer pass complete to Isaiah Sategna III for 19 yds to the SC 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:41
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+5
28.1%
John Mateer run for 5 yds to the SC 44Similar
Q3 10:23
2ND & 5
OPP 44
+1
27.9%
Tory Blaylock run for 1 yd to the SC 43Similar
Q3 9:54
3RD & 4
OPP 43
0
28.4%
John Mateer pass incomplete to Isaiah Sategna IIISimilar
Q3 9:42
4TH & 4
OPP 43
0
29.6%
Grayson Miller punt for 40 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:1430% → 28%
Q3 9:21
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+3
29.9%
Rahsul Faison run for 3 yds to the SC 6Similar
Q3 8:41
2ND & 7
OWN 6
+1
29.7%
Rahsul Faison run for 1 yd to the SC 7Similar
Q3 8:19
3RD & 6
OWN 7
0
28.5%
LaNorris Sellers pass incomplete to Nyck HarborSimilar
Q3 8:07
4TH & 6
OWN 7
+4
27.8%
Mason Love punt for 50 yds , Isaiah Sategna III returns for 4 yds to the OU 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 14FG
8 plays · 16 yds · 1:5774% → 78%
Q3 7:58
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+10
25.8%
(07:50) Shotgun Mateer,John pass complete short left to Gibson,Javonnie caught at USC43, for 10 yards to the USC43 (Collier,Judge) PENALTY USC Pass Interference (Collier,Judge) 10 yards from OU47 to USC43, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 7:10
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+1
25.0%
Xavier Robinson run for 1 yd to the SC 42Similar
Q3 6:22
2ND & 9
OPP 42
+5
25.1%
John Mateer pass complete to Kaden Helms for 5 yds to the SC 37Similar
Q3 6:06
3RD & 4
OPP 37
0
24.8%
John Mateer pass incomplete to Deion BurksSimilar
Q3 6:01
4TH & 4
OPP 37
+55
22.3%
Tate Sandell 55 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 15INT
6 plays · 23 yds · 1:3621% → 20%
Q3 5:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
20.9%
(05:44) Shotgun Sellers,LaNorris pass incomplete deep middle to Jacobs,Vandrevius thrown to OU23 broken up by Boganowski,Michael PENALTY OU Pass Interference (Boganowski,Michael) 15 yards from USC25 to USC40, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:19
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
21.9%
Jayden Sellers run for 5 yds to the SC 45Similar
Q3 4:47
2ND & 5
OWN 45
+3
20.9%
LaNorris Sellers pass complete to Matt Fuller for 3 yds to the SC 48Similar
Q3 4:23
3RD & 2
OWN 48
0
20.3%
LaNorris Sellers pass incomplete to Donovan MurphSimilar
Q3 4:16
4TH & 2
OWN 48
-3
19.5%
Mason Love pass intercepted Taylor Wein return for 3 yds to the SC 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 16TD
5 plays · 49 yds · 1:4781% → 94%
Q3 3:53
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
19.2%
John Mateer run for no gain to the SC 49Similar
Q3 3:20
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+5
19.2%
Tory Blaylock run for 5 yds to the SC 44Similar
Q3 3:00
3RD & 5
OPP 44
+20
18.9%
John Mateer pass complete to Tory Blaylock for 5 yds to the SC 39 for a 1ST down South Carolina Penalty, Roughing The Passer (Jatius Geer) to the SC 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:30
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+4
17.8%
Tory Blaylock run for 4 yds to the SC 20Similar
Q3 2:06
2ND & 6
OPP 20
+20
6.2%
John Mateer pass complete to Isaiah Sategna III for 20 yds for a TD (Tate Sandell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 17PUNT
7 plays · -1 yds · 1:178% → 6%
Q3 2:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
7.6%
LaNorris Sellers pass incomplete to Donovan MurphSimilar
Q3 1:20
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+3
7.0%
LaNorris Sellers pass complete to Mazeo Bennett Jr. for 3 yds to the SC 34Similar
Q3 0:56
4TH & 1
OWN 34
-5
6.3%
PENALTY USC Delay Of Game 5 yards from USC34 to USC29. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 0:56
4TH & 6
OWN 29
-5
6.5%
PENALTY USC False Start (Kilgore,Gerald) 5 yards from USC29 to USC24. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 0:44
4TH & 11
OWN 24
+10
6.4%
Mason Love punt for 44 yds , Isaiah Sategna III returns for 10 yds to the OU 42Similar
Q3 0:44
4TH & 11
OWN 24
+10
6.4%
Mason Love punt for 44 yds , Isaiah Sategna III returns for 10 yds to the OU 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 18PUNT
8 plays · 3 yds · 3:3694% → 95%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
6.1%
Tory Blaylock run for 5 yds to the OU 35Similar
Q4 14:40
2ND & 5
OWN 35
0
5.7%
Tory Blaylock run for no gain to the OU 35Similar
Q4 14:01
3RD & 5
OWN 35
+5
5.7%
John Mateer run for 5 yds to the OU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:13
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
4.9%
Xavier Robinson run for 3 yds to the OU 43Similar
Q4 12:42
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+1
4.8%
John Mateer run for 1 yd to the OU 44Similar
Q4 11:59
3RD & 6
OWN 44
-11
4.8%
John Mateer sacked by Bryan Thomas Jr. for a loss of 11 yards to the OU 33Similar
Q4 11:24
4TH & 17
OWN 33
0
4.9%
Grayson Miller punt for 49 ydsSimilar
Q4 11:24
4TH & 17
OWN 33
0
4.9%
Grayson Miller punt for 49 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 19DOWNS
16 plays · 27 yds · 4:553% → 2%
Q4 10:59
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-1
3.1%
LaNorris Sellers pass complete to Nyck Harbor for a loss of 1 yard to the SC 17Similar
Q4 10:45
2ND & 11
OWN 17
0
2.7%
LaNorris Sellers pass incomplete to Donovan MurphSimilar
Q4 10:19
3RD & 11
OWN 17
+12
2.7%
LaNorris Sellers run for 12 yds to the SC 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:59
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-8
2.9%
LaNorris Sellers sacked by R Mason Thomas for a loss of 8 yards to the SC 21Similar
Q4 9:20
2ND & 18
OWN 21
+1
2.8%
Oscar Adaway III run for 1 yd to the SC 22Similar
Q4 8:42
3RD & 17
OWN 22
+19
2.7%
LaNorris Sellers pass complete to Oscar Adaway III for 19 yds to the SC 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:31
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
2.8%
LaNorris Sellers pass incomplete to Brady HuntSimilar
Q4 8:27
2ND & 10
OWN 41
0
2.7%
LaNorris Sellers pass incomplete to Vandrevius JacobsSimilar
Q4 8:19
3RD & 10
OWN 41
0
2.6%
LaNorris Sellers pass incomplete to Vandrevius JacobsSimilar
Q4 8:08
4TH & 10
OWN 41
+13
2.5%
LaNorris Sellers run for 13 yds to the OU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:19
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-8
2.7%
LaNorris Sellers sacked by Kendal Daniels for a loss of 8 yards to the SC 46Similar
Q4 7:01
2ND & 18
OWN 46
0
2.4%
LaNorris Sellers pass incomplete to Rahsul FaisonSimilar
Q4 6:37
3RD & 18
OWN 46
-18
2.4%
LaNorris Sellers sacked for a loss of 18 yards to the SC 28Similar
Q4 6:04
4TH & 36
OWN 28
+17
2.1%
LaNorris Sellers pass complete to Jayden Sellers for 17 yds to the SC 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 20PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 1:1599% → 99%
Q4 5:42
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+1
1.2%
Xavier Robinson run for 1 yd to the SC 44Similar
Q4 5:00
2ND & 9
OPP 44
+2
1.2%
Xavier Robinson run for 2 yds to the SC 42Similar
Q4 4:33
3RD & 7
OPP 42
+1
1.0%
Xavier Robinson run for 1 yd to the SC 41Similar
Q4 4:27
4TH & 6
OPP 41
0
1.0%
John Mateer punt for 40 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 21SF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 4:22
1ST & 10
OWN 1
-1
0.9%
Matt Fuller run for a loss of 1 yard for a SAFETYSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 22PUNT
6 plays · -2 yds · 1:2299% → 99%
Q4 3:59
1ST & 10
50
+1
0.7%
Xavier Robinson run for 1 yd to the SC 49Similar
Q4 3:16
2ND & 9
OPP 49
-1
0.6%
Taylor Tatum run for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 2:49
3RD & 10
50
+2
0.6%
Whitt Newbauer pass complete to Will Huggins for 2 yds to the OU 48Similar
Q4 2:37
4TH & 12
OWN 48
+5
0.6%
Grayson Miller punt for 37 yds , Vicari Swain returns for 5 yds to the SC 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 23INT
9 plays · 59 yds · 1:381% → 1%
Q4 2:14
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+16
0.6%
Cutter Woods pass complete to Donovan Murph for 16 yds to the SC 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+10
0.5%
Cutter Woods pass complete to Jayden Sellers for 10 yds to the SC 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:32
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+6
0.5%
Cutter Woods run for 6 yds to the OU 48Similar
Q4 1:32
2ND & 4
OPP 48
+12
0.5%
Cutter Woods pass complete to Jayden Sellers for 12 yds to the OU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:19
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
0.5%
Cutter Woods pass incomplete to Donovan MurphSimilar
Q4 0:53
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+7
0.5%
Cutter Woods run for 7 yds to the OU 29Similar
Q4 0:47
3RD & 3
OPP 29
+8
0.5%
Cutter Woods pass complete to Donovan Murph for 8 yds to the OU 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:36
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
0.6%
Cutter Woods pass intercepted, touchback. Jacobe Johnson return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 24END OF GAME
1 play · -1 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
0.4%
(00:15) Kneel down by Oklahoma at OU19 for loss of 1 yard.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 1:43
LaNorris Sellers pass complete to Nyck Harbor for 2 yds for a TD (William Joyce KICK)
+21.4
TD · Q3 2:06
John Mateer pass complete to Isaiah Sategna III for 20 yds for a TD (Tate Sandell KICK)
-11.5
TD · Q2 9:21
Xavier Robinson run for 10 yds for a TD (Tate Sandell KICK)
-7.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com