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TEX

Texas 16 at Kentucky 13

UK
2025 · Week 8 · Oct 18, 2025 · Kroger Field
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Win probability · UK
modelUK aheadTEX aheadconfidence bandkey playUK scoreTEX score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4OTTDFGFGTDFGFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 7:10 · Jack Bouwmeester punt for 39 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UK 27 Texas Penalty, (-5 Yards) to the UK 32
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+34.0+17.00−17.0−34.0Q1Q2Q3Q4OTPlay 21Pregame prior−31.1Home team on offense−0.2Garbage-time factor+0.0Score differential−0.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q4 12:04: Cutter Boley run for 16 yds for a TD (Jacob Kauwe KICK) — UK win probability +25.6 pts (now 55%) (top driver: UK has the ball).
  2. FG · Q4 0:57: Mason Shipley 39 yd FG GOOD — TEX win probability +32.3 pts (now 92%) (top driver: TEX has the ball).
  3. FG · Q4 0:09: Jacob Kauwe 45 yd FG GOOD — UK win probability +34.2 pts (now 64%) (top driver: UK has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · OT 0:00: Q.Wisner rushed for yards. Tackled by T.Nichols at UK 25. PENALTY on TEX-B.Baker, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, accepted. No Play. — TEX win probability +22.0 pts (now 60%) (top driver: TEX has the ball).
  5. FG · OT 0:00: M.Shipley 45 yard field goal attempt is good, Center-L.St. Louis, Holder-J.Bouwmeester. — TEX win probability +26.2 pts (now 71%) (top driver: TEX has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UK made the numbers' call on 5 of 9TEX made the numbers' call on 6 of 11
  1. Q1 9:17UK 4th & 1 at TEX 16, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 24.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    24.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    24.5%−0.2
    81% to make
    Punt
    23.9%−0.8
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:10TEX 4th & 8 at TEX 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.3%−0.2
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.5%
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:10TEX 4th & 8 at TEX 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.3%−0.2
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.5%
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:12UK 4th & 1 at UK 41, tied
    Close callPunted · 26.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.9%−0.2
    average punt
  5. Q1 3:45TEX 4th & 6 at TEX 45, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.8%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.9%
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:39UK 4th & 10 at TEX 44, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.5%−0.2
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    30.3%−0.4
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    30.7%
    average punt
  7. Q2 9:04TEX 4th & 9 at UK 38, tied
    Close callPunted · 68.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.0%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    67.9%−0.2
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    67.9%−0.2
    average punt
  8. Q2 7:08UK 4th & 12 at UK 7, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.9%−1.7
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.6%
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:07TEX 4th & 16 at UK 39, up 7
    Close callPunted · 76.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.3%−0.8
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    76.1%
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    75.6%−0.5
    average punt
  10. Q3 12:53TEX 4th & 1 at TEX 34, up 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.4 ptsPunted · 75.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.2%−1.4
    average punt
  11. Q3 6:38UK 4th & 2 at TEX 38, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 28.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    28.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    25.6%−3.0
    38% to make
    Punt
    25.6%−3.0
    average punt
  12. Q3 4:09UK 4th & 4 at TEX 28, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 28.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    26.7%−0.9
    60% to make
    Punt
    18.1%−9.5
    average punt
  13. Q3 2:05TEX 4th & 6 at UK 35, up 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsKicked a field goal · 71.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.8%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    70.7%−1.1
    45% to make
    Punt
    69.2%−2.6
    average punt
  14. Q3 0:32UK 4th & 14 at UK 17, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.8%−3.8
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.5%
    average punt
  15. Q4 14:48TEX 4th & 23 at TEX 19, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.9%−3.9
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.8%
    average punt
  16. Q4 10:47TEX 4th & 5 at TEX 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.5%−0.5
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.0%
    average punt
  17. Q4 8:07UK 4th & 2 at UK 42, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.4 ptsPunted · 52.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.8%−2.4
    average punt
  18. Q4 6:38TEX 4th & 3 at TEX 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.0%−0.3
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.3%
    average punt
  19. Q4 2:36UK 4th & 7 at UK 44, tied
    Close callPunted · 55.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.7%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.4%−0.3
    average punt
  20. Q4 0:57TEX 4th & 1 at UK 21, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 4.4 ptsKicked a field goal · 55.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    52.2%−4.4
    74% to make
    Punt
    17.8%−38.8
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UK made the numbers' call on 1 of 1TEX made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q2 6:22TEX Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q4 12:04UK Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    44.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    44.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UKDrive 1DOWNS
12 plays · 59 yds · 5:3716% → 20%
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
16.4%
Seth McGowan run for no gain to the UK 25Similar
Q1 14:20
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+8
16.7%
Cutter Boley pass complete to Seth McGowan for 8 yds to the UK 33Similar
Q1 13:49
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+15
16.9%
Cutter Boley pass complete to Seth McGowan for 15 yds to the UK 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:19
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+3
17.3%
Seth McGowan run for 3 yds to the TEX 49Similar
Q1 12:40
2ND & 7
OPP 49
0
17.7%
Cutter Boley pass incomplete to Willie RodriguezSimilar
Q1 12:27
3RD & 7
OPP 49
+10
17.7%
Cutter Boley pass complete to Hardley Gilmore IV for 10 yds to the TEX 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:45
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+14
18.2%
Cutter Boley pass complete to Henry Boyer for 14 yds to the TEX 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:17
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+2
18.5%
Dante Dowdell run for 2 yds to the TEX 23Similar
Q1 10:37
2ND & 8
OPP 23
+6
19.0%
Cutter Boley run for 6 yds to the TEX 17Similar
Q1 10:01
3RD & 2
OPP 17
+1
19.2%
Cutter Boley run for 1 yd to the TEX 16Similar
Q1 9:17
4TH & 1
OPP 16
0
19.5%
Dante Dowdell run for no gain to the TEX 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 2PUNT
9 plays · 18 yds · 2:0581% → 80%
Q1 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+2
19.2%
Quintrevion Wisner run for 2 yds to the TEX 18Similar
Q1 8:45
2ND & 8
OWN 18
0
19.4%
Arch Manning pass incomplete to Jordan WashingtonSimilar
Q1 8:37
3RD & 8
OWN 18
+14
19.6%
Arch Manning run for 14 yds to the TEX 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:57
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
19.7%
Arch Manning pass incomplete to Ryan WingoSimilar
Q1 7:50
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+7
19.8%
Arch Manning pass complete to Ryan Wingo for 7 yds to the TEX 39Similar
Q1 7:18
3RD & 3
OWN 39
0
19.8%
Arch Manning pass incomplete to Jack EndriesSimilar
Q1 7:16
4TH & 3
OWN 39
-5
20.2%
PENALTY UT False Start 5 yards from UT39 to UT34. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:10
4TH & 8
OWN 34
+39
20.4%
Jack Bouwmeester punt for 39 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UK 27 Texas Penalty, (Yards) to the UK 27Similar
Q1 7:10
4TH & 8
OWN 34
+34
20.4%
Jack Bouwmeester punt for 39 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UK 27 Texas Penalty, (-5 Yards) to the UK 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:5220% → 21%
Q1 7:04
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+9
20.4%
Dante Dowdell run for 9 yds to the UK 41Similar
Q1 6:28
2ND & 1
OWN 41
0
21.1%
Cutter Boley pass incomplete to Hardley Gilmore IVSimilar
Q1 6:21
3RD & 1
OWN 41
0
21.0%
Cutter Boley pass incomplete to Hardley Gilmore IVSimilar
Q1 6:12
4TH & 1
OWN 41
0
20.8%
Aidan Laros punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Ryan Niblett at the TEX 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 4PUNT
8 plays · 32 yds · 2:2179% → 78%
Q1 6:06
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+15
20.8%
(06:13) Shotgun Manning,Arch pass incomplete deep right to Wingo,Ryan thrown to UT48 PENALTY UK Pass Interference (Hardaway,JQ) 15 yards from UT13 to UT28, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 5:58
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-10
20.8%
Arch Manning sacked for a loss of 10 yards to the TEX 18Similar
Q1 5:15
2ND & 20
OWN 18
+8
21.3%
Arch Manning pass complete to Quintrevion Wisner for 8 yds to the TEX 26Similar
Q1 4:28
3RD & 12
OWN 26
+15
22.0%
Arch Manning pass complete to Ryan Wingo for 15 yds to the TEX 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:16
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
21.2%
Quintrevion Wisner run for 4 yds to the TEX 45Similar
Q1 3:59
2ND & 6
OWN 45
0
21.2%
Arch Manning pass incomplete to Parker LivingstoneSimilar
Q1 3:55
3RD & 6
OWN 45
0
21.5%
Arch Manning pass incomplete to Ryan WingoSimilar
Q1 3:45
4TH & 6
OWN 45
0
22.1%
Jack Bouwmeester punt for 38 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 5PUNT
12 plays · 37 yds · 5:5822% → 26%
Q1 3:37
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-4
22.2%
Seth McGowan run for a loss of 4 yards to the UK 15Similar
Q1 3:00
2ND & 14
OWN 15
+10
22.5%
Cutter Boley pass complete to Ja'Mori Maclin for 10 yds to the UK 25Similar
Q1 2:18
3RD & 4
OWN 25
+5
22.9%
Cutter Boley pass complete to Ja'Mori Maclin for 5 yds to the UK 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:47
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+11
23.6%
Cutter Boley pass complete to Willie Rodriguez for 11 yds to the UK 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:01
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-5
24.7%
(01:11) No Huddle-Shotgun Boley,Cutter pass complete short middle to Law,Kendrick caught at UK40, for 2 yards to the UK43 (Lefau,Liona) PENALTY UK Illegal Shift 5 yards from UK41 to UK36. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 0:41
1ST & 15
OWN 36
0
24.2%
Cutter Boley pass incomplete to Ja'Mori MaclinSimilar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 15
OWN 36
+9
24.6%
Dante Dowdell run for 9 yds to the UK 45Similar
Q2 14:47
3RD & 6
OWN 45
+11
25.3%
Cutter Boley pass complete to Kendrick Law for 11 yds to the TEX 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:21
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+2
26.3%
Cutter Boley pass complete to Seth McGowan for 2 yds to the TEX 42Similar
Q2 13:56
2ND & 8
OPP 42
+3
26.6%
Seth McGowan run for 3 yds to the TEX 39Similar
Q2 13:14
3RD & 5
OPP 39
-5
26.9%
Cutter Boley sacked by Colin Simmons for a loss of 5 yards to the TEX 44Similar
Q2 12:39
4TH & 10
OPP 44
0
25.8%
Aidan Laros punt for 44 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 6PUNT
8 plays · 42 yds · 3:2275% → 73%
Q2 12:26
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+25
25.3%
Arch Manning pass complete to Jordan Washington for 25 yds to the TEX 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:56
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
24.5%
Arch Manning pass incomplete to Jordan WashingtonSimilar
Q2 11:49
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+3
24.9%
Arch Manning pass complete to Ryan Niblett for 3 yds to the TEX 42Similar
Q2 11:08
3RD & 13
OWN 42
+19
26.1%
Arch Manning pass complete to DeAndre Moore Jr. for 19 yds to the UK 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:46
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+3
24.8%
Arch Manning run for 3 yds to the UK 36Similar
Q2 10:17
2ND & 7
OPP 36
-1
24.9%
Arch Manning pass complete to Jack Endries for a loss of 1 yard to the UK 37Similar
Q2 9:44
3RD & 8
OPP 37
-1
25.3%
Arch Manning run for a loss of 1 yard to the UK 38Similar
Q2 9:04
4TH & 9
OPP 38
0
27.1%
Jack Bouwmeester punt for 29 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 1:4329% → 28%
Q2 8:51
1ST & 10
OWN 9
-8
28.5%
Cutter Boley sacked by Trey Moore for a loss of 8 yards to the UK 1Similar
Q2 8:16
2ND & 18
OWN 1
+3
28.8%
Cutter Boley run for 3 yds to the UK 4Similar
Q2 8:00
3RD & 15
OWN 4
+3
28.1%
Dante Dowdell run for 3 yds to the UK 7Similar
Q2 7:08
4TH & 12
OWN 7
+45
28.1%
Aidan Laros punt for 43 yds , Ryan Niblett returns for 45 yds to the UK 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 8TD
3 plays · 5 yds · 0:3875% → 81%
Q2 7:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
24.9%
Arch Manning run for 4 yds to the UK 1Similar
Q2 6:28
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
25.1%
Arch Manning pass incomplete to Nick TownsendSimilar
Q2 6:22
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
19.4%
Quintrevion Wisner run for 1 yd for a TD (Mason Shipley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 9INT
8 plays · 17 yds · 3:0421% → 22%
Q2 6:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
21.4%
Seth McGowan run for 4 yds to the UK 29Similar
Q2 5:43
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+7
21.8%
Cutter Boley pass complete to Josh Kattus for 7 yds to the UK 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:22
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
22.1%
Seth McGowan run for 6 yds to the UK 42Similar
Q2 5:00
2ND & 4
OWN 42
+4
23.4%
Seth McGowan run for 4 yds to the UK 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:31
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+8
23.3%
Cutter Boley pass complete to Kendrick Law for 8 yds to the UK 38Similar
Q2 3:54
2ND & 18
OWN 38
+4
22.2%
Cutter Boley pass complete to Seth McGowan for 4 yds to the UK 42Similar
Q2 3:12
3RD & 14
OWN 42
-3
21.8%
Cutter Boley pass intercepted Anthony Hill Jr. return for 3 yds to the UK 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 10PUNT
7 plays · 7 yds · 1:5381% → 80%
Q2 3:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+5
19.2%
Christian Clark run for 5 yds to the UK 41Similar
Q2 2:36
2ND & 5
OPP 41
+8
18.8%
Christian Clark run for 8 yds to the UK 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:19
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
18.8%
Christian Clark run for no gain to the UK 33Similar
Q2 1:52
2ND & 10
OPP 33
-6
17.6%
Arch Manning sacked for a loss of 6 yards to the UK 39Similar
Q2 1:14
3RD & 16
OPP 39
0
19.2%
Arch Manning pass incomplete to Ryan WingoSimilar
Q2 1:07
4TH & 16
OPP 39
0
20.3%
Jack Bouwmeester punt for 29 yds, fair catch by Ty Bryant at the UK 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 11MISSED FG
12 plays · 55 yds · 0:5322% → 24%
Q2 1:01
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+5
21.6%
Seth McGowan run for 5 yds to the UK 15Similar
Q2 0:57
2ND & 5
OWN 15
+7
21.7%
Seth McGowan run for 7 yds to the UK 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:46
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+6
21.8%
Cutter Boley pass complete to Seth McGowan for 6 yds to the UK 28Similar
Q2 0:33
2ND & 4
OWN 28
+16
22.3%
Cutter Boley pass complete to Seth McGowan for 16 yds to the UK 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:23
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+18
23.4%
Cutter Boley pass complete to Ja'Mori Maclin for 18 yds to the TEX 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:18
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+9
24.6%
Cutter Boley pass complete to DJ Miller for 9 yds to the TEX 29Similar
Q2 0:13
2ND & 1
OPP 29
-6
25.6%
Cutter Boley sacked by Malik Muhammad for a loss of 6 yards to the TEX 35Similar
Q2 0:08
3RD & 7
OPP 35
+53
24.4%
Jacob Kauwe 53 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 12END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0080% → 80%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-1
19.6%
A. Manning takes a kneeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 2:0179% → 78%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
20.9%
Quintrevion Wisner run for 8 yds to the TEX 33Similar
Q3 14:17
2ND & 2
OWN 33
0
20.2%
Quintrevion Wisner run for no gain to the TEX 33Similar
Q3 13:29
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+1
20.7%
Arch Manning run for 1 yd to the TEX 34Similar
Q3 12:53
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
21.6%
Jack Bouwmeester punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Ty Bryant at the UK 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 14FG
15 plays · 53 yds · 8:3723% → 32%
Q3 12:46
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-1
22.6%
Dante Dowdell run for a loss of 1 yard to the UK 18Similar
Q3 11:54
2ND & 11
OWN 18
+4
22.5%
Cutter Boley pass complete to Troy Stellato for 4 yds to the UK 22Similar
Q3 11:26
3RD & 7
OWN 22
+9
21.9%
Cutter Boley pass complete to Hardley Gilmore IV for 9 yds to the UK 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:26
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+3
23.5%
Seth McGowan run for 3 yds to the UK 34 Seth McGowan fumbled, recovered by TEX Shiyazh PeteSimilar
Q3 10:06
2ND & 7
OWN 34
+3
23.7%
Dante Dowdell run for 3 yds to the UK 37Similar
Q3 9:24
3RD & 4
OWN 37
+7
24.0%
Cutter Boley run for 7 yds to the UK 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:50
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+10
25.6%
Cutter Boley pass complete to Jason Patterson for 10 yds to the TEX 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:35
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+1
26.9%
Jason Patterson run for 1 yd to the TEX 45Similar
Q3 7:46
2ND & 9
OPP 45
+2
27.0%
Cutter Boley pass complete to Dante Dowdell for 2 yds to the TEX 43Similar
Q3 7:15
3RD & 7
OPP 43
+5
26.7%
Cutter Boley run for 5 yds to the TEX 38Similar
Q3 6:38
4TH & 2
OPP 38
+4
25.8%
Cutter Boley pass complete to Hardley Gilmore IV for 4 yds to the TEX 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:03
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+7
29.1%
Jason Patterson run for 7 yds to the TEX 27Similar
Q3 5:33
2ND & 3
OPP 27
-3
29.4%
Jason Patterson run for a loss of 3 yards to the TEX 30Similar
Q3 4:47
3RD & 6
OPP 30
+2
27.7%
Dante Dowdell run for 2 yds to the TEX 28Similar
Q3 4:09
4TH & 4
OPP 28
+46
32.4%
Jacob Kauwe 46 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 15FG
7 plays · 40 yds · 1:5772% → 79%
Q3 4:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
27.7%
Quintrevion Wisner run for 5 yds to the TEX 30Similar
Q3 3:40
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+31
26.9%
Arch Manning pass complete to Emmett Mosley V for 31 yds to the UK 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:02
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
24.7%
Arch Manning pass incomplete to Jack EndriesSimilar
Q3 2:54
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+4
24.8%
Quintrevion Wisner run for 4 yds to the UK 35Similar
Q3 2:11
3RD & 6
OPP 35
0
24.8%
Arch Manning pass incomplete to Parker LivingstoneSimilar
Q3 2:05
4TH & 6
OPP 35
+53
20.9%
Mason Shipley 53 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 1:1625% → 21%
Q3 1:48
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+2
24.8%
Cutter Boley pass complete to Willie Rodriguez for 2 yds to the UK 23Similar
Q3 1:08
2ND & 8
OWN 23
+6
25.0%
Cutter Boley pass complete to Jason Patterson for 6 yds to the UK 17Similar
Q3 0:40
3RD & 14
OWN 17
0
23.5%
Cutter Boley pass incomplete to Willie RodriguezSimilar
Q3 0:32
4TH & 14
OWN 17
0
21.0%
Aidan Laros punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Ryan Niblett at the TEX 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · -13 yds · 0:4079% → 77%
Q3 0:28
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
20.7%
Arch Manning pass incomplete to Christian ClarkSimilar
Q3 0:22
2ND & 10
OWN 32
0
21.2%
Arch Manning pass incomplete to Parker LivingstoneSimilar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 10
OWN 32
-8
22.0%
Arch Manning sacked by Steven Soles Jr. for a loss of 8 yards to the TEX 24Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 18
OWN 24
-5
23.3%
PENALTY UT Illegal Snap (St. Louis,Lance) 5 yards from UT24 to UT19. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:48
4TH & 23
OWN 19
+14
23.4%
Jack Bouwmeester punt for 51 yds , Ty Bryant returns for 14 yds to the UK 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 18TD
6 plays · 56 yds · 2:3426% → 55%
Q4 14:38
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+11
26.0%
Cutter Boley pass complete to Josh Kattus for 11 yds to the TEX 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:04
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+4
27.3%
Jason Patterson run for 4 yds to the TEX 41Similar
Q4 13:22
2ND & 6
OPP 41
+11
27.5%
Jason Patterson run for 11 yds to the TEX 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:45
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+15
29.4%
(12:50) No Huddle-Shotgun Boley,Cutter pass incomplete deep left to Gilmore IV,Hardley thrown to UT00 PENALTY UT Pass Interference (Guilbeau,Jaylon) 15 yards from UT30 to UT15, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:39
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-1
29.4%
Jason Patterson run for a loss of 1 yard to the TEX 16Similar
Q4 12:04
2ND & 11
OPP 16
+16
54.9%
Cutter Boley run for 16 yds for a TD (Jacob Kauwe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:0856% → 52%
Q4 11:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
43.9%
Quintrevion Wisner run for no gain to the TEX 25Similar
Q4 11:24
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
44.4%
Quintrevion Wisner run for 5 yds to the TEX 30Similar
Q4 10:57
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
44.7%
Arch Manning pass incomplete to Emmett Mosley VSimilar
Q4 10:47
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
47.7%
Jack Bouwmeester punt for 51 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 20PUNT
6 plays · 28 yds · 2:3349% → 52%
Q4 10:40
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+1
48.8%
Jason Patterson run for 1 yd to the UK 15Similar
Q4 10:05
2ND & 9
OWN 15
+19
49.2%
Cutter Boley pass complete to Willie Rodriguez for 19 yds to the UK 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-3
51.1%
Cutter Boley sacked by Colin Simmons for a loss of 3 yards to the UK 31Similar
Q4 8:49
2ND & 13
OWN 31
-2
50.6%
Cutter Boley sacked by Colin Simmons for a loss of 2 yards to the UK 29 Cutter Boley fumbled, recovered by TEX Joshua Braun , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q4 8:21
3RD & 15
OWN 29
+13
48.4%
Cutter Boley run for 13 yds to the UK 42Similar
Q4 8:07
4TH & 2
OWN 42
0
51.6%
Aidan Laros punt for 34 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:1753% → 51%
Q4 7:55
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-1
46.8%
Arch Manning run for a loss of 1 yard to the TEX 23Similar
Q4 7:27
2ND & 11
OWN 23
0
47.6%
Arch Manning pass incomplete to Ryan WingoSimilar
Q4 7:13
3RD & 11
OWN 23
+8
48.6%
Arch Manning pass complete to Quintrevion Wisner for 8 yds to the TEX 31Similar
Q4 6:38
4TH & 3
OWN 31
0
49.0%
Jack Bouwmeester punt for 52 yds, fair catch by Troy Stellato at the UK 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 22PUNT
9 plays · 27 yds · 3:4653% → 55%
Q4 6:22
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+6
52.6%
Seth McGowan run for 6 yds to the UK 23Similar
Q4 5:55
2ND & 4
OWN 23
+5
53.8%
Seth McGowan run for 5 yds to the UK 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:17
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+2
54.1%
Seth McGowan run for 2 yds to the UK 30Similar
Q4 4:41
2ND & 8
OWN 30
+11
54.6%
Cutter Boley pass complete to Hardley Gilmore IV for 11 yds to the UK 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:26
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-5
58.0%
PENALTY UK False Start (Rodriguez,Willie) 5 yards from UK41 to UK36. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 4:10
1ST & 15
OWN 36
+1
55.0%
Seth McGowan run for 1 yd to the UK 37Similar
Q4 3:34
2ND & 14
OWN 37
0
54.8%
Cutter Boley pass incomplete to Willie RodriguezSimilar
Q4 3:20
3RD & 14
OWN 37
+7
52.8%
Cutter Boley pass complete to Fred Farrier II for 7 yds to the UK 44Similar
Q4 2:36
4TH & 7
OWN 44
+43
54.7%
Aidan Laros punt for 41 yds , Ryan Niblett returns for 43 yds to the UK 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 23FG
12 plays · 21 yds · 1:3157% → 92%
Q4 2:28
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+6
42.8%
Quintrevion Wisner run for 6 yds to the UK 36Similar
Q4 2:00
2ND & 4
OPP 36
-5
38.9%
PENALTY UT False Start (Washington,Jordan) 5 yards from UK36 to UK41. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 1:53
2ND & 9
OPP 41
+2
40.4%
Quintrevion Wisner run for 2 yds to the UK 39Similar
Q4 1:39
3RD & 7
OPP 39
+9
40.3%
Arch Manning pass complete to DeAndre Moore Jr. for 9 yds to the UK 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:10
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
37.7%
Quintrevion Wisner run for no gain to the UK 30Similar
Q4 1:05
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+9
36.3%
Arch Manning pass complete to DeAndre Moore Jr. for 9 yds to the UK 21Similar
Q4 1:00
3RD & 1
OPP 21
0
37.3%
Arch Manning run for no gain to the UK 21Similar
Q4 0:57
4TH & 1
OPP 21
+39
8.5%
Mason Shipley 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 24FG
9 plays · 46 yds · 0:3319% → 64%
Q4 0:42
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+16
19.4%
Cutter Boley run for 16 yds to the UK 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:34
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+17
22.0%
Cutter Boley pass complete to Seth McGowan for 17 yds to the TEX 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:27
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
24.2%
Cutter Boley pass incomplete to Fred Farrier IISimilar
Q4 0:22
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+4
22.1%
Cutter Boley pass complete to Josh Kattus for 4 yds to the TEX 36Similar
Q4 0:20
3RD & 6
OPP 36
+5
22.2%
(00:22) No Huddle-Shotgun Boley,Cutter pass complete short right to McGowan,Seth caught at UT37, for 3 yards to the UT33 (Williams,Jonah) PENALTY UT Offside (Moore,Trey) 5 yards from UT36 to UT31. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 0:15
3RD & 1
OPP 31
+4
25.8%
Cutter Boley pass complete to DJ Miller for 4 yds to the TEX 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:14
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
30.0%
Cutter Boley pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:09
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+45
64.3%
Jacob Kauwe 45 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 25END OF GAME
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0053% → 53%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
46.9%
A. Manning takes a kneeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 26DOWNS
5 plays · 24 yds · 0:0068% → 62%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+22
67.5%
C.Boley pass complete. Catch made by K.Law for 22 yards. Pushed out of bounds by J.Guilbeau at TEX 3.Similar
OT 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
69.4%
D.Dowdell rushed for 0 yards. Tackled by A.Hill at TEX 3.Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
67.5%
C.Boley rushed for 2 yards. Tackled by J.McDonald at TEX 1.Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
65.1%
D.Dowdell rushed for 0 yards. Tackled by M.Taaffe; L.Lefau at TEX 1.Similar
OT 0:00
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
0
61.9%
D.Dowdell rushed for 0 yards. Tackled by M.Taaffe at TEX 1.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 27END OF GAME
6 plays · -2 yds · 0:0060% → 71%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
39.9%
Q.Wisner rushed for yards. Tackled by T.Nichols at UK 25. PENALTY on TEX-B.Baker, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, accepted. No Play.Similar
OT 0:00
1ST & 20
OPP 35
+5
42.7%
A.Manning pass complete. Catch made by R.Niblett for 5 yards. Tackled by T.Bryant; S.Greene at UK 30.Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 15
OPP 30
0
44.0%
A.Manning steps back to pass. Pass incomplete intended for R.Wingo.Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & 15
OPP 30
+3
47.9%
A.Manning rushed for 3 yards. Tackled by J.Lovett at UK 27.Similar
OT 0:00
4TH & 12
OPP 27
0
29.1%
M.Shipley 45 yard field goal attempt is good, Center-L.St. Louis, Holder-J.Bouwmeester.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FG · Q4 0:09
Jacob Kauwe 45 yd FG GOOD
+34.2
FG · Q4 0:57
Mason Shipley 39 yd FG GOOD
-32.3
End of Game · Final
Game over.
-29.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com