TEX
Texas 16 at Kentucky 13
UK2025 · Week 8 · Oct 18, 2025 · Kroger Field
Win probability · UK
modelUK aheadTEX aheadconfidence bandkey play
What moved it - hover a play below
Q4 0:00 · A. Manning takes a knee
01
Market gave UK a 18% pregame chance
−29
02
0:00 left in regulation
+5
03
TEX has the ball
−4
04
2023+ clock rules
+2
Play by play - hover to pin the curve
Q5 0:00
M.Shipley 45 yard field goal attempt is good, Center-L.St. Louis, Holder-J.Bouwmeester.
0.0
Q5 0:00
Timeout #1 by UK.
+28.6
Q5 0:00
A.Manning rushed for 3 yards. Tackled by J.Lovett at UK 27.
-0.8
Q5 0:00
A.Manning steps back to pass. Pass incomplete intended for R.Wingo.
0.0
Q5 0:00
A.Manning pass complete. Catch made by R.Niblett for 5 yards. Tackled by T.Bryant; S.Greene at UK 30.
+1.7
Q5 0:00
Q.Wisner rushed for yards. Tackled by T.Nichols at UK 25. PENALTY on TEX-B.Baker, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, accepted. No Play.
-4.4
Q5 0:00
D.Dowdell rushed for 0 yards. Tackled by M.Taaffe at TEX 1.
+16.4
Q5 0:00
D.Dowdell rushed for 0 yards. Tackled by M.Taaffe; L.Lefau at TEX 1.
+0.4
Q5 0:00
C.Boley rushed for 2 yards. Tackled by J.McDonald at TEX 1.
+2.0
Q5 0:00
D.Dowdell rushed for 0 yards. Tackled by A.Hill at TEX 3.
0.0
Q5 0:00
C.Boley pass complete. Catch made by K.Law for 22 yards. Pushed out of bounds by J.Guilbeau at TEX 3.
-11.1
Q1 15:00
Mason Shipley kickoff for 60 yds
-27.4
Q1 14:54
Seth McGowan run for no gain to the UK 25
+1.6
Q1 14:20
Cutter Boley pass complete to Seth McGowan for 8 yds to the UK 33
+0.2
Q1 13:49
Cutter Boley pass complete to Seth McGowan for 15 yds to the UK 48 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q1 13:19
Seth McGowan run for 3 yds to the TEX 49
+0.8
Q1 12:40
Cutter Boley pass incomplete to Willie Rodriguez
+0.7
Q1 12:27
Cutter Boley pass complete to Hardley Gilmore IV for 10 yds to the TEX 39 for a 1ST down
-0.2
Q1 11:45
Cutter Boley pass complete to Henry Boyer for 14 yds to the TEX 25 for a 1ST down
+0.5
Q1 11:17
Dante Dowdell run for 2 yds to the TEX 23
0.0
Q1 10:37
Cutter Boley run for 6 yds to the TEX 17
0.0
Q1 10:01
Cutter Boley run for 1 yd to the TEX 16
-0.2
Q1 9:17
Dante Dowdell run for no gain to the TEX 16
-0.2
Q1 9:15
Quintrevion Wisner run for 2 yds to the TEX 18
-3.5
Q1 8:45
Arch Manning pass incomplete to Jordan Washington
-0.3
Q1 8:37
Arch Manning run for 14 yds to the TEX 32 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q1 7:57
Arch Manning pass incomplete to Ryan Wingo
+0.4
Q1 7:50
Arch Manning pass complete to Ryan Wingo for 7 yds to the TEX 39
0.0
Q1 7:18
Arch Manning pass incomplete to Jack Endries
-0.7
Q1 7:16
PENALTY UT False Start 5 yards from UT39 to UT34. NO PLAY.
+0.2
Q1 7:10
Jack Bouwmeester punt for 39 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UK 27 Texas Penalty, (Yards) to the UK 27
+0.5
Q1 7:10
Jack Bouwmeester punt for 39 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UK 27 Texas Penalty, (-5 Yards) to the UK 32
0.0
Q1 7:04
Dante Dowdell run for 9 yds to the UK 41
+2.2
Q1 6:28
Cutter Boley pass incomplete to Hardley Gilmore IV
+0.7
Q1 6:21
Cutter Boley pass incomplete to Hardley Gilmore IV
-0.2
Q1 6:12
Aidan Laros punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Ryan Niblett at the TEX 13
-0.2
Q1 6:06
(06:13) Shotgun Manning,Arch pass incomplete deep right to Wingo,Ryan thrown to UT48 PENALTY UK Pass Interference (Hardaway,JQ) 15 yards from UT13 to UT28, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.
-2.4
Q1 5:58
Arch Manning sacked for a loss of 10 yards to the TEX 18
0.0
Q1 5:15
Arch Manning pass complete to Quintrevion Wisner for 8 yds to the TEX 26
+0.2
Q1 4:28
Arch Manning pass complete to Ryan Wingo for 15 yds to the TEX 41 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q1 4:16
Quintrevion Wisner run for 4 yds to the TEX 45
-0.9
Q1 3:59
Arch Manning pass incomplete to Parker Livingstone
-0.3
Q1 3:55
Arch Manning pass incomplete to Ryan Wingo
0.0
Q1 3:45
Jack Bouwmeester punt for 38 yds
+0.2
Q1 3:37
Seth McGowan run for a loss of 4 yards to the UK 15
+3.3
Q1 3:00
Cutter Boley pass complete to Ja'Mori Maclin for 10 yds to the UK 25
0.0
Q1 2:18
Cutter Boley pass complete to Ja'Mori Maclin for 5 yds to the UK 30 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q1 1:47
Cutter Boley pass complete to Willie Rodriguez for 11 yds to the UK 41 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q1 1:01
(01:11) No Huddle-Shotgun Boley,Cutter pass complete short middle to Law,Kendrick caught at UK40, for 2 yards to the UK43 (Lefau,Liona) PENALTY UK Illegal Shift 5 yards from UK41 to UK36. NO PLAY.
+0.9
Q1 0:41
Cutter Boley pass incomplete to Ja'Mori Maclin
-0.5
Q1 0:00
Dante Dowdell run for 9 yds to the UK 45
+0.9
Q2 14:47
Cutter Boley pass complete to Kendrick Law for 11 yds to the TEX 44 for a 1ST down
+0.7
Q2 14:21
Cutter Boley pass complete to Seth McGowan for 2 yds to the TEX 42
+0.9
Q2 13:56
Seth McGowan run for 3 yds to the TEX 39
+0.3
Q2 13:14
Cutter Boley sacked by Colin Simmons for a loss of 5 yards to the TEX 44
-0.2
Q2 12:39
Aidan Laros punt for 44 yds for a touchback
-0.6
Q2 12:26
Arch Manning pass complete to Jordan Washington for 25 yds to the TEX 45 for a 1ST down
-3.5
Q2 11:56
Arch Manning pass incomplete to Jordan Washington
-1.3
Q2 11:49
Arch Manning pass complete to Ryan Niblett for 3 yds to the TEX 42
0.0
Q2 11:08
Arch Manning pass complete to DeAndre Moore Jr. for 19 yds to the UK 39 for a 1ST down
+0.8
Q2 10:46
Arch Manning run for 3 yds to the UK 36
-0.2
Q2 10:17
Arch Manning pass complete to Jack Endries for a loss of 1 yard to the UK 37
+0.3
Q2 9:44
Arch Manning run for a loss of 1 yard to the UK 38
0.0
Q2 9:04
Jack Bouwmeester punt for 29 yds
+0.5
Q2 8:51
Cutter Boley sacked by Trey Moore for a loss of 8 yards to the UK 1
+3.4
Q2 8:16
Cutter Boley run for 3 yds to the UK 4
0.0
Q2 8:00
Dante Dowdell run for 3 yds to the UK 7
+0.8
Q2 7:08
Aidan Laros punt for 43 yds , Ryan Niblett returns for 45 yds to the UK 5
-0.3
Q2 7:00
Arch Manning run for 4 yds to the UK 1
-5.8
Q2 6:28
Arch Manning pass incomplete to Nick Townsend
+0.9
Q2 6:22
Quintrevion Wisner run for 1 yd for a TD (Mason Shipley KICK)
-9.2
Q2 6:22
Mason Shipley kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
+0.9
Q2 6:16
Seth McGowan run for 4 yds to the UK 29
+1.8
Q2 5:43
Cutter Boley pass complete to Josh Kattus for 7 yds to the UK 36 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q2 5:22
Seth McGowan run for 6 yds to the UK 42
0.0
Q2 5:00
Seth McGowan run for 4 yds to the UK 46 for a 1ST down
+0.4
Q2 4:31
Cutter Boley pass complete to Kendrick Law for 8 yds to the UK 38
+0.1
Q2 3:54
Cutter Boley pass complete to Seth McGowan for 4 yds to the UK 42
-0.1
Q2 3:12
Cutter Boley pass intercepted Anthony Hill Jr. return for 3 yds to the UK 46
0.0
Q2 3:00
Christian Clark run for 5 yds to the UK 41
-3.9
Q2 2:36
Christian Clark run for 8 yds to the UK 33 for a 1ST down
-0.2
Q2 2:19
Christian Clark run for no gain to the UK 33
+0.1
Q2 2:00
Timeout Kentucky, clock 02:00
+0.1
Q2 1:52
Arch Manning sacked for a loss of 6 yards to the UK 39
0.0
Q2 1:14
Arch Manning pass incomplete to Ryan Wingo
+1.2
Q2 1:07
Jack Bouwmeester punt for 29 yds, fair catch by Ty Bryant at the UK 10
+0.3
Q2 1:02
Timeout Texas, clock 01:02
+3.2
Q2 1:01
Seth McGowan run for 5 yds to the UK 15
0.0
Q2 0:57
Seth McGowan run for 7 yds to the UK 22 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q2 0:46
Cutter Boley pass complete to Seth McGowan for 6 yds to the UK 28
+0.1
Q2 0:33
Cutter Boley pass complete to Seth McGowan for 16 yds to the UK 44 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q2 0:23
Cutter Boley pass complete to Ja'Mori Maclin for 18 yds to the TEX 38 for a 1ST down
+0.5
Q2 0:23
Timeout Kentucky, clock 00:23
+2.0
Q2 0:18
Cutter Boley pass complete to DJ Miller for 9 yds to the TEX 29
0.0
Q2 0:18
Timeout Kentucky, clock 00:18
-0.1
Q2 0:13
Cutter Boley sacked by Malik Muhammad for a loss of 6 yards to the TEX 35
+0.3
Q2 0:13
Timeout Texas, clock 00:13
-0.2
Q2 0:08
Jacob Kauwe 53 yd FG MISSED
-0.2
Q2 0:00
A. Manning takes a knee
-5.1
Q3 15:00
Aidan Laros kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
+3.3
Q3 14:54
Quintrevion Wisner run for 8 yds to the TEX 33
-2.8
Q3 14:17
Quintrevion Wisner run for no gain to the TEX 33
-0.3
Q3 13:29
Arch Manning run for 1 yd to the TEX 34
0.0
Q3 12:53
Jack Bouwmeester punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Ty Bryant at the UK 19
0.0
Q3 12:46
Dante Dowdell run for a loss of 1 yard to the UK 18
+3.8
Q3 11:54
Cutter Boley pass complete to Troy Stellato for 4 yds to the UK 22
0.0
Q3 11:26
Cutter Boley pass complete to Hardley Gilmore IV for 9 yds to the UK 31 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q3 10:26
Seth McGowan run for 3 yds to the UK 34 Seth McGowan fumbled, recovered by TEX Shiyazh Pete
+0.8
Q3 10:06
Dante Dowdell run for 3 yds to the UK 37
+0.1
Q3 9:24
Cutter Boley run for 7 yds to the UK 44 for a 1ST down
+0.3
Q3 8:50
Cutter Boley pass complete to Jason Patterson for 10 yds to the TEX 46 for a 1ST down
+0.4
Q3 8:35
Jason Patterson run for 1 yd to the TEX 45
+0.8
Q3 7:46
Cutter Boley pass complete to Dante Dowdell for 2 yds to the TEX 43
0.0
Q3 7:15
Cutter Boley run for 5 yds to the TEX 38
+0.5
Q3 6:38
Cutter Boley pass complete to Hardley Gilmore IV for 4 yds to the TEX 34 for a 1ST down
-0.2
Q3 6:03
Jason Patterson run for 7 yds to the TEX 27
+0.4
Q3 5:33
Jason Patterson run for a loss of 3 yards to the TEX 30
0.0
Q3 4:47
Dante Dowdell run for 2 yds to the TEX 28
+0.3
Q3 4:09
Jacob Kauwe 46 yd FG GOOD
+6.8
Q3 4:09
Aidan Laros kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
-2.0
Q3 4:02
Quintrevion Wisner run for 5 yds to the TEX 30
-4.1
Q3 3:40
Arch Manning pass complete to Emmett Mosley V for 31 yds to the UK 39 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q3 3:02
Arch Manning pass incomplete to Jack Endries
-2.0
Q3 2:54
Quintrevion Wisner run for 4 yds to the UK 35
0.0
Q3 2:11
Arch Manning pass incomplete to Parker Livingstone
0.0
Q3 2:05
Mason Shipley 53 yd FG GOOD
-4.1
Q3 1:57
Mason Shipley kickoff for 64 yds , Kendrick Law return for 20 yds to the UK 21
+1.2
Q3 1:48
Cutter Boley pass complete to Willie Rodriguez for 2 yds to the UK 23
+3.2
Q3 1:08
Cutter Boley pass complete to Jason Patterson for 6 yds to the UK 17
+0.5
Q3 0:40
Cutter Boley pass incomplete to Willie Rodriguez
0.0
Q3 0:32
Aidan Laros punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Ryan Niblett at the TEX 32
0.0
Q3 0:28
Arch Manning pass incomplete to Christian Clark
-4.3
Q3 0:22
Arch Manning pass incomplete to Parker Livingstone
0.0
Q3 0:00
Arch Manning sacked by Steven Soles Jr. for a loss of 8 yards to the TEX 24
-0.3
Q4 15:00
PENALTY UT Illegal Snap (St. Louis,Lance) 5 yards from UT24 to UT19. NO PLAY.
0.0
Q4 14:48
Jack Bouwmeester punt for 51 yds , Ty Bryant returns for 14 yds to the UK 44
+0.2
Q4 14:38
Cutter Boley pass complete to Josh Kattus for 11 yds to the TEX 45 for a 1ST down
+2.3
Q4 14:04
Jason Patterson run for 4 yds to the TEX 41
+0.7
Q4 13:22
Jason Patterson run for 11 yds to the TEX 30 for a 1ST down
+0.7
Q4 12:45
(12:50) No Huddle-Shotgun Boley,Cutter pass incomplete deep left to Gilmore IV,Hardley thrown to UT00 PENALTY UT Pass Interference (Guilbeau,Jaylon) 15 yards from UT30 to UT15, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.
-1.0
Q4 12:39
Jason Patterson run for a loss of 1 yard to the TEX 16
0.0
Q4 12:04
Cutter Boley run for 16 yds for a TD (Jacob Kauwe KICK)
+25.2
Q4 12:04
Aidan Laros kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
-2.4
Q4 11:55
Quintrevion Wisner run for no gain to the TEX 25
-7.1
Q4 11:24
Quintrevion Wisner run for 5 yds to the TEX 30
0.0
Q4 10:57
Arch Manning pass incomplete to Emmett Mosley V
0.0
Q4 10:47
Jack Bouwmeester punt for 51 yds
0.0
Q4 10:40
Jason Patterson run for 1 yd to the UK 15
+7.1
Q4 10:05
Cutter Boley pass complete to Willie Rodriguez for 19 yds to the UK 34 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q4 9:30
Cutter Boley sacked by Colin Simmons for a loss of 3 yards to the UK 31
+0.6
Q4 8:49
Cutter Boley sacked by Colin Simmons for a loss of 2 yards to the UK 29 Cutter Boley fumbled, recovered by TEX Joshua Braun , return for 0 yards
0.0
Q4 8:21
Cutter Boley run for 13 yds to the UK 42
+0.2
Q4 8:07
Aidan Laros punt for 34 yds
+0.3
Q4 7:55
Arch Manning run for a loss of 1 yard to the TEX 23
-8.4
Q4 7:27
Arch Manning pass incomplete to Ryan Wingo
0.0
Q4 7:13
Arch Manning pass complete to Quintrevion Wisner for 8 yds to the TEX 31
0.0
Q4 6:38
Jack Bouwmeester punt for 52 yds, fair catch by Troy Stellato at the UK 17
+4.3
Q4 6:22
Seth McGowan run for 6 yds to the UK 23
+8.8
Q4 5:55
Seth McGowan run for 5 yds to the UK 28 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q4 5:17
Seth McGowan run for 2 yds to the UK 30
0.0
Q4 4:41
Cutter Boley pass complete to Hardley Gilmore IV for 11 yds to the UK 41 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q4 4:26
PENALTY UK False Start (Rodriguez,Willie) 5 yards from UK41 to UK36. NO PLAY.
+0.9
Q4 4:10
Seth McGowan run for 1 yd to the UK 37
-0.1
Q4 3:34
Cutter Boley pass incomplete to Willie Rodriguez
+0.1
Q4 3:20
Cutter Boley pass complete to Fred Farrier II for 7 yds to the UK 44
0.0
Q4 2:36
Aidan Laros punt for 41 yds , Ryan Niblett returns for 43 yds to the UK 42
+0.3
Q4 2:28
Quintrevion Wisner run for 6 yds to the UK 36
-12.7
Q4 2:00
Timeout Kentucky, clock 02:00
-1.2
Q4 2:00
PENALTY UT False Start (Washington,Jordan) 5 yards from UK36 to UK41. NO PLAY.
0.0
Q4 1:53
Quintrevion Wisner run for 2 yds to the UK 39
-0.6
Q4 1:44
Timeout Kentucky, clock 01:44
-0.4
Q4 1:39
Arch Manning pass complete to DeAndre Moore Jr. for 9 yds to the UK 30 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q4 1:10
Quintrevion Wisner run for no gain to the UK 30
0.0
Q4 1:10
Timeout Kentucky, clock 01:10
+0.2
Q4 1:05
Arch Manning pass complete to DeAndre Moore Jr. for 9 yds to the UK 21
0.0
Q4 1:00
Arch Manning run for no gain to the UK 21
0.0
Q4 1:00
Timeout Kentucky, clock 01:00
+0.7
Q4 0:57
Mason Shipley 39 yd FG GOOD
-23.4
Q4 0:51
Mason Shipley kickoff for 64 yds , Hardley Gilmore IV return for 26 yds to the UK 27
0.0
Q4 0:42
Cutter Boley run for 16 yds to the UK 43 for a 1ST down
+8.1
Q4 0:34
Cutter Boley pass complete to Seth McGowan for 17 yds to the TEX 40 for a 1ST down
+0.4
Q4 0:27
Cutter Boley pass incomplete to Fred Farrier II
0.0
Q4 0:22
Cutter Boley pass complete to Josh Kattus for 4 yds to the TEX 36
-2.7
Q4 0:20
(00:22) No Huddle-Shotgun Boley,Cutter pass complete short right to McGowan,Seth caught at UT37, for 3 yards to the UT33 (Williams,Jonah) PENALTY UT Offside (Moore,Trey) 5 yards from UT36 to UT31. NO PLAY.
0.0
Q4 0:15
Cutter Boley pass complete to DJ Miller for 4 yds to the TEX 27 for a 1ST down
+0.2
Q4 0:14
Cutter Boley pass incomplete
0.0
Q4 0:09
Jacob Kauwe 45 yd FG GOOD
+35.5
Q4 0:00
Aidan Laros kickoff for 51 yds , Ryan Niblett return for 11 yds to the TEX 25
-2.8
Q4 0:00
A. Manning takes a knee
-13.6
Biggest swings
FG · Q4 0:09
Jacob Kauwe 45 yd FG GOOD
+35.5
KEY PLAY · Q5 0:00
Timeout #1 by UK.
+28.6
KEY PLAY · Q1 15:00
Mason Shipley kickoff for 60 yds
-27.4