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MIZ

Missouri 23 at Auburn 17

AUB
2025 · Week 8 · Oct 18, 2025 · Jordan-Hare Stadium
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Win probability · AUB
modelAUB aheadMIZ aheadconfidence bandkey playAUB scoreMIZ score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4OTOT3TDFGTDTDFGTDTDEnd of GameFG+11.8AUB 84.6%Alex McPherson 22 yd FG GOODAWAY 10 - HOME 17 · Q4 10:31
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 10:31 · Alex McPherson 22 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+30.5+15.30−15.3−30.5Q1Q2Q3Q4OTOT3Play 131Home team on offense+15.7Score differential+2.8Pregame prior−0.6Garbage-time factor+9.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+2.6Time remaining+0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 0:35: Omar Mabson II run for 1 yd for a TD (Alex McPherson KICK) — AUB win probability +18.2 pts (now 71%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
  2. FG · Q4 10:31: Alex McPherson 22 yd FG GOOD — AUB win probability +11.8 pts (now 85%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 5:07: Ahmad Hardy run for 3 yds for a TD (Robert Meyer KICK) — MIZ win probability +36.5 pts (now 60%) (top driver: MIZ has the ball).
  4. TD · OT3 0:00: B.Pribula rushed for 3 yards. TOUCHDOWN. — MIZ win probability +27.9 pts (now 89%) (top driver: MIZ has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · OT3 0:00: J.Arnold pass complete. Catch made by E.Singleton for -3 yards. Tackled by K.Jacobs; Z.Young at MIZZ 28. — AUB win probability +20.4 pts (now 32%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
AUB made the numbers' call on 4 of 7MIZ made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 7:01MIZ 4th & 14 at MIZ 36, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.0%−0.4
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.4%
    average punt
  2. Q1 1:44MIZ 4th & 5 at AUB 5, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 45.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.6%−<0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    45.6%
    92% to make
    Punt
    42.4%−3.2
    average punt
  3. Q1 0:09AUB 4th & 17 at AUB 18, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.3%−1.3
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.6%
    average punt
  4. Q2 8:35AUB 4th & 2 at AUB 33, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.8%−0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.9%
    average punt
  5. Q2 0:06AUB 4th & 18 at MIZ 22, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 45.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.4%−2.7
    12% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    46.1%
    72% to make
    Punt
    41.5%−4.6
    average punt
  6. Q3 11:19MIZ 4th & 17 at MIZ 48, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.3%−3.1
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.3%
    average punt
  7. Q3 8:14AUB 4th & 4 at MIZ 20, down 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 47.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.7%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    47.2%−0.5
    75% to make
    Punt
    37.3%−10.3
    average punt
  8. Q3 5:33MIZ 4th & 8 at MIZ 49, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.2%−0.8
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.0%
    average punt
  9. Q4 14:23MIZ 4th & 10 at MIZ 25, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.8%−2.7
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.5%
    average punt
  10. Q4 10:31AUB 4th & 4 at MIZ 4, up 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.5 ptsKicked a field goal · 70.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.4%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    69.0%−1.5
    93% to make
    Punt
    52.4%−18.1
    average punt
  11. Q4 8:16MIZ 4th & 13 at AUB 48, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.7%−1.5
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.2%
    average punt
  12. Q4 6:16AUB 4th & 8 at AUB 22, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.0%−2.8
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.8%
    average punt
  13. Q4 2:58AUB 4th & 9 at MIZ 44, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsPunted · 56.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.5%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    51.2%−3.3
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    53.4%−1.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
AUB made the numbers' call on 2 of 2MIZ made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q1 9:54AUB Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    50.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    50.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 10:21MIZ Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    51.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    51.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 0:35AUB Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 5:07MIZ Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    42.5%−0.2
    97% to make
    Go for two
    42.8%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
AUBDrive 1TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 4:5947% → 50%
Q1 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
46.7%
Jeremiah Cobb run for 6 yds to the AUB 31Similar
Q1 14:32
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+9
46.8%
Jackson Arnold pass complete to Perry Thompson for 9 yds to the AUB 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:59
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
47.0%
Jeremiah Cobb run for 4 yds to the AUB 44Similar
Q1 13:41
2ND & 6
OWN 44
0
47.2%
Jackson Arnold pass incomplete to Perry ThompsonSimilar
Q1 13:28
3RD & 6
OWN 44
+4
47.1%
Jackson Arnold pass complete to Eric Singleton Jr. for 4 yds to the AUB 48Similar
Q1 12:53
4TH & 2
OWN 48
+15
47.3%
(12:56) No Huddle-Shotgun Arnold,Jackson pass incomplete deep left to Thompson,Perry thrown to MIZ31 PENALTY MIZ Pass Interference (Burks,Marvin) 15 yards from AUB48 to MIZ37, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 12:47
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+5
47.6%
Jeremiah Cobb run for 5 yds to the MIZ 32Similar
Q1 12:18
2ND & 5
OPP 32
0
47.8%
Jackson Arnold pass incomplete to Perry ThompsonSimilar
Q1 12:09
3RD & 5
OPP 32
+12
47.7%
Jackson Arnold run for 12 yds to the MIZ 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:35
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+15
48.1%
Malcolm Simmons run for 15 yds to the MIZ 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
48.3%
Jackson Arnold run for 4 yds to the MIZ 1Similar
Q1 10:23
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
48.5%
Jeremiah Cobb run for no gain to the MIZ 1Similar
Q1 9:54
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
50.3%
Jackson Arnold run for 1 yd for a TD Missouri Penalty, Defensive Offside (Stephen Hall) declined (Alex McPherson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 2PUNT
8 plays · 11 yds · 2:4750% → 48%
Q1 9:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
49.7%
Beau Pribula pass incomplete to Brett NorfleetSimilar
Q1 9:40
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
49.8%
Ahmad Hardy run for no gain to the MIZ 25Similar
Q1 8:54
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+15
50.6%
Beau Pribula pass complete to Kevin Coleman Jr. for 15 yds to the MIZ 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:22
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
50.4%
Ahmad Hardy run for no gain to the MIZ 40Similar
Q1 7:47
2ND & 10
OWN 40
-4
50.8%
Ahmad Hardy run for a loss of 4 yards to the MIZ 36Similar
Q1 7:10
3RD & 14
OWN 36
0
51.7%
Beau Pribula pass incomplete to Kevin Coleman Jr.Similar
Q1 7:01
4TH & 14
OWN 36
0
52.0%
Connor Weselman punt for 42 yds , Malcolm Simmons returns for no gain to the AUB 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 3INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0752% → 52%
Q1 6:56
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
51.7%
Jackson Arnold pass incomplete to Cam ColemanSimilar
Q1 6:49
2ND & 10
OWN 22
-2
51.7%
Jackson Arnold pass intercepted Toriano Pride Jr. return for 2 yds to the AUB 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 4FG
11 plays · 24 yds · 4:5850% → 48%
Q1 6:42
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+6
50.3%
Beau Pribula run for 6 yds to the AUB 23Similar
Q1 6:22
2ND & 4
OPP 23
+3
50.4%
Ahmad Hardy run for 3 yds to the AUB 20Similar
Q1 5:43
3RD & 1
OPP 20
+2
51.2%
Ahmad Hardy run for 2 yds to the AUB 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:59
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-1
51.0%
Beau Pribula pass complete to Brett Norfleet for a loss of 1 yard to the AUB 19Similar
Q1 4:24
2ND & 11
OPP 19
+1
51.4%
Ahmad Hardy run for 1 yd to the AUB 18Similar
Q1 3:37
3RD & 10
OPP 18
+12
52.3%
Beau Pribula pass complete to Joshua Manning for 12 yds to the AUB 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
51.8%
Beau Pribula run for no gain to the AUB 6Similar
Q1 2:26
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
52.4%
Beau Pribula run for no gain to the AUB 6Similar
Q1 1:48
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
53.4%
Missouri Penalty, (Yards) to the AUB 5Similar
Q1 1:44
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+24
51.8%
Robert Meyer 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · -7 yds · 1:3252% → 51%
Q1 1:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
51.8%
Jackson Arnold pass incomplete to Cam ColemanSimilar
Q1 1:29
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
51.8%
Jackson Arnold pass complete to Cam Coleman for 5 yds to the AUB 30Similar
Q1 1:01
3RD & 5
OWN 30
-5
51.8%
(01:01) PENALTY AUB False Start 5 yards from AUB30 to AUB25. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 0:43
3RD & 10
OWN 25
-7
51.6%
Jackson Arnold sacked by Chris McClellan for a loss of 7 yards to the AUB 18Similar
Q1 0:09
4TH & 17
OWN 18
0
51.3%
Hudson Kaak punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Kevin Coleman Jr. at the MIZ 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 6TD
9 plays · 65 yds · 4:3947% → 55%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+17
52.7%
Ahmad Hardy run for 17 yds to the AUB 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:52
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+7
51.5%
Ahmad Hardy run for 7 yds to the AUB 41Similar
Q2 14:31
2ND & 3
OPP 41
+1
51.6%
Ahmad Hardy run for 1 yd to the AUB 40Similar
Q2 13:52
3RD & 2
OPP 40
+6
51.9%
Beau Pribula run for 6 yds to the AUB 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:14
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+1
51.3%
Ahmad Hardy run for 1 yd to the AUB 33Similar
Q2 12:30
2ND & 9
OPP 33
+19
51.5%
Beau Pribula pass complete to Marquis Johnson for 19 yds to the AUB 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:47
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+3
51.6%
Ahmad Hardy run for 3 yds to the AUB 11Similar
Q2 10:55
2ND & 7
OPP 11
+9
51.9%
Beau Pribula pass complete to Joshua Manning for 9 yds to the AUB 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
45.4%
Ahmad Hardy run for 2 yds for a TD (Robert Meyer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:4049% → 48%
Q2 10:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
48.6%
Jeremiah Cobb run for 2 yds to the AUB 27Similar
Q2 9:40
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+3
48.5%
Jackson Arnold pass complete to Eric Singleton Jr. for 3 yds to the AUB 30Similar
Q2 9:08
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+3
47.9%
Jackson Arnold run for 3 yds to the AUB 33Similar
Q2 8:35
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
47.8%
Hudson Kaak punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Kevin Coleman Jr. at the MIZ 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 8INT
15 plays · 61 yds · 6:1152% → 56%
Q2 8:29
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+2
47.7%
Jamal Roberts run for 2 yds to the MIZ 24Similar
Q2 7:52
2ND & 8
OWN 24
0
46.6%
Beau Pribula pass incomplete to Jamal RobertsSimilar
Q2 7:43
3RD & 8
OWN 24
+11
47.3%
Beau Pribula pass complete to Donovan Olugbode for 11 yds to the MIZ 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:18
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
46.1%
(07:22) No Huddle-Shotgun Pribula,Beau pass incomplete deep right to Johnson,Marquis thrown to AUB40 PENALTY AUB Offside (Faulk,Keldric) 5 yards from MIZ35 to MIZ40. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:01
1ST & 5
OWN 40
+11
44.9%
Beau Pribula pass complete to Ahmad Hardy for 11 yds to the AUB 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:36
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+2
44.5%
Ahmad Hardy run for 2 yds to the AUB 47Similar
Q2 5:47
2ND & 8
OPP 47
+8
44.4%
Beau Pribula pass complete to Donovan Olugbode for 8 yds to the AUB 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:06
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+4
44.3%
Ahmad Hardy run for 4 yds to the AUB 35Similar
Q2 4:21
2ND & 6
OPP 35
-1
43.4%
Ahmad Hardy run for a loss of 1 yard to the AUB 36Similar
Q2 3:30
3RD & 7
OPP 36
+20
44.7%
Beau Pribula pass complete to Kevin Coleman Jr. for 20 yds to the AUB 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:56
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+2
43.8%
Beau Pribula run for 2 yds to the AUB 14Similar
Q2 2:22
2ND & 8
OPP 14
+3
42.8%
Beau Pribula pass complete to Marquis Johnson for 3 yds to the AUB 17Similar
Q2 2:18
3RD & 11
OPP 17
0
43.7%
Beau Pribula pass intercepted Kayin Lee return for no gain to the AUB 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 9MISSED FG
12 plays · 71 yds · 2:0647% → 43%
Q2 2:12
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+6
46.7%
Jeremiah Cobb run for 6 yds to the AUB 13Similar
Q2 1:54
2ND & 4
OWN 13
+3
45.4%
Jackson Arnold run for 3 yds to the AUB 16Similar
Q2 1:48
3RD & 1
OWN 16
+24
44.4%
Jackson Arnold pass complete to Cam Coleman for 9 yds to the AUB 25 for a 1ST down Missouri Penalty, Roughing The Passer (Nicholas Rodriguez) to the AUB 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:44
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
48.1%
Jackson Arnold pass incomplete to Preston HowardSimilar
Q2 1:37
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+46
46.6%
Jackson Arnold pass complete to Cam Coleman for 46 yds to the MIZ 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:23
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+1
50.9%
Jeremiah Cobb run for 1 yd to the MIZ 13Similar
Q2 0:56
2ND & 9
OPP 13
-3
51.0%
Jackson Arnold sacked by Josiah Trotter for a loss of 3 yards to the MIZ 16Similar
Q2 0:45
3RD & 12
OPP 16
-6
49.8%
Jackson Arnold sacked by Sterling Webb for a loss of 6 yards to the MIZ 22Similar
Q2 0:06
4TH & 18
OPP 22
+40
42.6%
Alex McPherson 40 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 10END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0055% → 55%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-1
44.9%
B. Pribula takes a kneeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 11PUNT
9 plays · 23 yds · 3:2755% → 53%
Q3 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
44.7%
Beau Pribula pass complete to Donovan Olugbode for 13 yds to the MIZ 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:16
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+7
43.0%
Ahmad Hardy run for 7 yds to the MIZ 45Similar
Q3 13:40
2ND & 3
OWN 45
0
42.4%
Beau Pribula pass incomplete to Donovan OlugbodeSimilar
Q3 13:31
3RD & 3
OWN 45
+10
42.9%
Beau Pribula pass complete to Brett Norfleet for 10 yds to the AUB 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:57
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
42.0%
Ahmad Hardy run for 2 yds to the AUB 43Similar
Q3 12:10
2ND & 8
OPP 43
-9
42.2%
Beau Pribula sacked by Xavier Atkins for a loss of 9 yards to the MIZ 48Similar
Q3 11:26
3RD & 17
OWN 48
0
45.0%
Beau Pribula pass incomplete to Kevin Coleman Jr.Similar
Q3 11:19
4TH & 17
OWN 48
0
46.6%
Connor Weselman punt for 52 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 12MISSED FG
8 plays · 60 yds · 2:5946% → 48%
Q3 11:13
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
45.5%
Jackson Arnold run for 8 yds to the AUB 28Similar
Q3 10:52
2ND & 2
OWN 28
+4
47.7%
Jackson Arnold pass complete to Cam Coleman for 4 yds to the AUB 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:26
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+1
46.1%
Jeremiah Cobb run for 1 yd to the AUB 33Similar
Q3 9:51
2ND & 9
OWN 33
+41
45.9%
Jeremiah Cobb run for 41 yds to the MIZ 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:11
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-6
51.5%
Jackson Arnold run for a loss of 6 yards to the MIZ 32Similar
Q3 8:42
2ND & 16
OPP 32
+12
48.9%
Jackson Arnold pass complete to Perry Thompson for 12 yds to the MIZ 20Similar
Q3 8:19
3RD & 4
OPP 20
0
49.7%
Jackson Arnold pass incomplete to Perry ThompsonSimilar
Q3 8:14
4TH & 4
OPP 20
+38
47.5%
Alex McPherson 38 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 13PUNT
6 plays · 29 yds · 2:3157% → 57%
Q3 8:04
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
43.4%
Ahmad Hardy run for 1 yd to the MIZ 21Similar
Q3 7:22
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+26
43.6%
Beau Pribula run for 26 yds to the MIZ 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:02
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+4
40.5%
Ahmad Hardy run for 4 yds to the AUB 49Similar
Q3 6:15
2ND & 6
OPP 49
0
40.0%
Beau Pribula pass incomplete to Jordon HarrisSimilar
Q3 5:33
3RD & 6
OPP 49
+2
40.4%
Beau Pribula pass complete to Jamal Roberts for 2 yds to the MIZ 49Similar
Q3 5:33
4TH & 8
OWN 49
0
43.5%
Connor Weselman punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Malcolm Simmons at the AUB 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 14TD
12 plays · 86 yds · 4:4745% → 71%
Q3 5:22
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+16
45.4%
Jackson Arnold pass complete to Eric Singleton Jr. for 16 yds to the AUB 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:08
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+7
46.2%
Jeremiah Cobb run for 7 yds to the AUB 37Similar
Q3 4:44
2ND & 3
OWN 37
+9
48.8%
Malcolm Simmons run for 9 yds to the AUB 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+1
49.4%
Justin Jones run for 1 yd to the AUB 47Similar
Q3 3:37
2ND & 9
OWN 47
+24
49.2%
Jackson Arnold run for 9 yds to the MIZ 44 for a 1ST down Missouri Penalty, Personal Foul (Nicholas Rodriguez) to the MIZ 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:30
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
52.1%
Jackson Arnold pass incomplete to Eric Singleton Jr.Similar
Q3 3:21
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+5
52.0%
Jackson Arnold pass complete to Perry Thompson for 5 yds to the MIZ 24Similar
Q3 2:50
3RD & 5
OPP 24
+7
50.0%
Jackson Arnold pass complete to Cam Coleman for 7 yds to the MIZ 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:22
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+12
52.6%
Jeremiah Cobb run for 12 yds to the MIZ 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
52.4%
Jackson Arnold run for 2 yds to the MIZ 3Similar
Q3 0:52
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
52.5%
Jackson Arnold run for 2 yds to the MIZ 1Similar
Q3 0:35
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
70.7%
Omar Mabson II run for 1 yd for a TD (Alex McPherson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:3735% → 32%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
65.0%
Ahmad Hardy run for no gain to the MIZ 25Similar
Q4 14:43
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
65.4%
Beau Pribula pass complete to Joshua Manning for 3 yds to the MIZ 28Similar
Q4 14:32
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
66.9%
Beau Pribula pass incomplete to Joshua ManningSimilar
Q4 14:23
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
68.2%
Connor Weselman punt for 51 yds , Malcolm Simmons returns for no gain to the AUB 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 16FG
8 plays · 73 yds · 3:4468% → 85%
Q4 14:15
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+23
68.2%
Jeremiah Cobb run for 23 yds to the AUB 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:27
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+37
71.4%
Jackson Arnold pass complete to Cam Coleman for 37 yds to the MIZ 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:53
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+8
73.5%
Jackson Arnold pass complete to Eric Singleton Jr. for 8 yds to the MIZ 9Similar
Q4 12:39
2ND & 2
OPP 9
+3
73.7%
Jeremiah Cobb run for 3 yds to the MIZ 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
73.9%
Jackson Arnold run for 3 yds to the MIZ 3Similar
Q4 11:27
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
74.2%
Jackson Arnold run for 2 yds to the MIZ 1Similar
Q4 11:04
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
-3
72.8%
Jeremiah Cobb run for a loss of 3 yards to the MIZ 4Similar
Q4 10:31
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+22
84.6%
Alex McPherson 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 17PUNT
9 plays · 27 yds · 2:0820% → 19%
Q4 10:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
79.7%
Beau Pribula pass incomplete to Ahmad HardySimilar
Q4 10:14
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+10
80.0%
Beau Pribula pass complete to Joshua Manning for 10 yds to the MIZ 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:43
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+20
78.8%
Beau Pribula pass complete to Joshua Manning for 20 yds to the AUB 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:03
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-3
76.0%
Ahmad Hardy run for a loss of 3 yards to the AUB 48Similar
Q4 8:28
2ND & 13
OPP 48
0
77.2%
Beau Pribula pass incomplete to Marquis JohnsonSimilar
Q4 8:24
3RD & 13
OPP 48
0
79.4%
Beau Pribula pass incomplete to Brett NorfleetSimilar
Q4 8:16
4TH & 13
OPP 48
0
81.0%
Connor Weselman punt for 48 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:5485% → 86%
Q4 8:10
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
85.0%
Jeremiah Cobb run for 2 yds to the AUB 22Similar
Q4 7:32
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+4
85.2%
Jackson Arnold pass complete to Eric Singleton Jr. for 4 yds to the AUB 26Similar
Q4 6:52
3RD & 4
OWN 26
-4
86.4%
Jackson Arnold sacked by Zion Young for a loss of 4 yards to the AUB 22Similar
Q4 6:16
4TH & 8
OWN 22
+3
86.0%
Hudson Kaak punt for 41 yds , Kevin Coleman Jr. returns for 3 yds to the MIZ 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 19TD
7 plays · 60 yds · 1:0419% → 60%
Q4 6:11
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
81.1%
Beau Pribula pass incomplete to Kevin Coleman Jr.Similar
Q4 6:06
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+15
82.0%
(06:09) No Huddle-Shotgun Pribula,Beau pass incomplete deep right to Johnson,Marquis thrown to AUB32 PENALTY AUB Pass Interference (Crawford,Jay) 15 yards from MIZ40 to AUB45, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 6:06
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+15
79.1%
PENALTY AUB UNR: Unnecessary Roughness (Crawford,Keyron) 15 yards from AUB45 to AUB30, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 6:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
77.1%
Beau Pribula pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:48
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+27
77.4%
Beau Pribula pass complete to Donovan Olugbode for 27 yds to the AUB 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
76.6%
Beau Pribula run for no gain to the AUB 3Similar
Q4 5:07
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
40.1%
Ahmad Hardy run for 3 yds for a TD (Robert Meyer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 20PUNT
8 plays · 35 yds · 1:5556% → 56%
Q4 4:53
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
56.1%
Jeremiah Cobb run for no gain to the AUB 21Similar
Q4 4:22
2ND & 10
OWN 21
0
55.7%
Jackson Arnold pass incomplete to Eric Singleton Jr.Similar
Q4 4:09
3RD & 10
OWN 21
+34
53.1%
Jackson Arnold pass complete to Perry Thompson for 34 yds to the MIZ 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:34
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
63.2%
Jackson Arnold pass incomplete to Cam ColemanSimilar
Q4 3:26
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+1
62.7%
Jeremiah Cobb run for 1 yd to the MIZ 44Similar
Q4 3:05
3RD & 9
OPP 44
0
60.7%
Jackson Arnold pass incomplete to Preston HowardSimilar
Q4 2:58
4TH & 9
OPP 44
0
55.8%
Hudson Kaak punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Kevin Coleman Jr. at the MIZ 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 21INT
15 plays · 44 yds · 2:3350% → 51%
Q4 2:51
1ST & 10
OWN 8
0
50.3%
Ahmad Hardy run for no gain to the MIZ 8Similar
Q4 2:10
2ND & 10
OWN 8
+12
50.7%
Beau Pribula pass complete to Joshua Manning for 12 yds to the MIZ 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:44
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
49.3%
Beau Pribula run for no gain to the MIZ 20Similar
Q4 1:26
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+14
50.1%
Beau Pribula pass complete to Kevin Coleman Jr. for 14 yds to the MIZ 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:14
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+1
47.5%
Beau Pribula run for 1 yd to the MIZ 35Similar
Q4 1:00
2ND & 9
OWN 35
+10
47.8%
Beau Pribula pass complete to Donovan Olugbode for 10 yds to the MIZ 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:47
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+15
43.7%
Beau Pribula pass complete to Jamal Roberts for 15 yds to the AUB 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:43
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+10
40.5%
Beau Pribula pass complete to Marquis Johnson for 10 yds to the AUB 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:26
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-7
38.2%
Beau Pribula sacked by Keyron Crawford for a loss of 7 yards to the AUB 37Similar
Q4 0:24
2ND & 17
OPP 37
-6
44.6%
Beau Pribula run for a loss of 6 yards to the AUB 43Similar
Q4 0:24
3RD & 23
OPP 43
-5
48.6%
PENALTY MIZ False Start 5 yards from AUB43 to AUB48. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 0:18
3RD & 28
OPP 48
0
49.3%
Beau Pribula pass intercepted Jay Crawford return for no gain to the AUB 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 22END OF GAME
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0057% → 57%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-1
57.1%
J. Arnold takes a kneeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 24MISSED FG
4 plays · -7 yds · 0:0068% → 56%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+2
67.5%
J.Cobb rushed for 2 yards. Tackled by J.Trotter; S.Banner at MIZZ 23.Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 8
OPP 23
-9
67.5%
J.Arnold steps back to pass. Sacked at MIZZ 32 for -9 yards (Z.Young).Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & 17
OPP 32
0
61.4%
J.Arnold steps back to pass. Pass incomplete intended for P.Howard.Similar
OT 0:00
4TH & 17
OPP 32
0
55.7%
A.McPherson 50 yard field goal attempt is no good, Center-AUB, Holder-AUB.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 25MISSED FG
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0060% → 44%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
39.9%
B.Pribula steps back to pass. Pass incomplete intended for J.Roberts.Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+6
40.9%
A.Hardy rushed for 6 yards. Tackled by B.Jamison-Travis at AUB 19.Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & 4
OPP 19
-1
42.5%
B.Pribula steps back to pass. Sacked at AUB 20 for -1 yards (X.Atkins).Similar
OT 0:00
4TH & 15
OWN 20
0
56.4%
R.Meyer 38 yard field goal attempt is no good, Center-MIZZ, Holder-MIZZ.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 26TD
8 plays · 25 yds · 0:0060% → 89%
OT3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
39.9%
B.Pribula pass complete. Catch made by M.Johnson for 0 yards. Tackled by J.Crawford at AUB 25.Similar
OT3 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 25
0
40.9%
B.Pribula steps back to pass. Pass incomplete intended for M.Johnson.Similar
OT3 0:00
3RD & 10
OPP 25
+12
43.8%
B.Pribula pass complete. Catch made by K.Coleman for 12 yards. Tackled by K.Louidor-Faustin at AUB 13.Similar
OT3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+6
39.8%
B.Pribula rushed for 6 yards. Tackled by B.Jamison-Travis at AUB 7.Similar
OT3 0:00
2ND & 4
OPP 7
+6
39.8%
J.Roberts rushed for 6 yards. Tackled by R.Woodyard; B.Jamison-Travis at AUB 1.Similar
OT3 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-2
39.4%
J.Roberts rushed for -2 yards. Tackled by R.Woodyard at AUB 3.Similar
OT3 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
11.5%
B.Pribula rushed for 3 yards. TOUCHDOWN.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 27DOWNS
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0032% → 21%
OT3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-3
31.9%
J.Arnold pass complete. Catch made by E.Singleton for -3 yards. Tackled by K.Jacobs; Z.Young at MIZZ 28.Similar
OT3 0:00
2ND & 13
OPP 28
+7
25.3%
J.Arnold pass complete. Catch made by P.Howard for 7 yards. Tackled by S.Banner at MIZZ 21.Similar
OT3 0:00
3RD & 6
OPP 21
-2
28.9%
J.Cobb rushed for -2 yards. Tackled by C.McClellan at MIZZ 23.Similar
OT3 0:00
4TH & 8
OPP 23
0
21.1%
J.Arnold pass complete. Catch made by J.Wright for 0 yards. Tackled by D.Norwood at MIZZ 23.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 5:07
Ahmad Hardy run for 3 yds for a TD (Robert Meyer KICK)
-36.5
TD · OT3 0:00
B.Pribula rushed for 3 yards. TOUCHDOWN.
-27.9
End of Game · Final
Game over.
-21.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com