MIZ
Missouri 23 at Auburn 17
AUB2025 · Week 8 · Oct 18, 2025 · Jordan-Hare Stadium
Win probability · AUB
modelAUB aheadMIZ aheadconfidence bandkey play
What moved it - hover a play below
Q4 0:00 · J. Arnold takes a knee
01
Market gave AUB a 45% pregame chance
−13
02
AUB has the ball
+3
03
Pregame market line was available
−1
04
Ball at own 17
−1
Play by play - hover to pin the curve
Q7 0:00
J.Arnold pass complete. Catch made by J.Wright for 0 yards. Tackled by D.Norwood at MIZZ 23.
0.0
Q7 0:00
J.Cobb rushed for -2 yards. Tackled by C.McClellan at MIZZ 23.
0.0
Q7 0:00
J.Arnold pass complete. Catch made by P.Howard for 7 yards. Tackled by S.Banner at MIZZ 21.
+0.8
Q7 0:00
J.Arnold pass complete. Catch made by E.Singleton for -3 yards. Tackled by K.Jacobs; Z.Young at MIZZ 28.
-0.8
Q7 0:00
B.Pribula rushed for 3 yards. TOUCHDOWN.
-8.1
Q7 0:00
J.Roberts rushed for -2 yards. Tackled by R.Woodyard at AUB 3.
+19.6
Q7 0:00
J.Roberts rushed for 6 yards. Tackled by R.Woodyard; B.Jamison-Travis at AUB 1.
-1.7
Q7 0:00
B.Pribula rushed for 6 yards. Tackled by B.Jamison-Travis at AUB 7.
+1.9
Q7 0:00
B.Pribula pass complete. Catch made by K.Coleman for 12 yards. Tackled by K.Louidor-Faustin at AUB 13.
0.0
Q7 0:00
Timeout #1 by MIZZ.
0.0
Q7 0:00
B.Pribula steps back to pass. Pass incomplete intended for M.Johnson.
0.0
Q7 0:00
B.Pribula pass complete. Catch made by M.Johnson for 0 yards. Tackled by J.Crawford at AUB 25.
0.0
Q5 0:00
R.Meyer 38 yard field goal attempt is no good, Center-MIZZ, Holder-MIZZ.
+10.0
Q5 0:00
Timeout #1 by MIZZ.
-7.4
Q5 0:00
B.Pribula steps back to pass. Sacked at AUB 20 for -1 yards (X.Atkins).
-0.7
Q5 0:00
A.Hardy rushed for 6 yards. Tackled by B.Jamison-Travis at AUB 19.
0.0
Q5 0:00
B.Pribula steps back to pass. Pass incomplete intended for J.Roberts.
0.0
Q5 0:00
A.McPherson 50 yard field goal attempt is no good, Center-AUB, Holder-AUB.
+6.8
Q5 0:00
J.Arnold steps back to pass. Pass incomplete intended for P.Howard.
+0.4
Q5 0:00
J.Arnold steps back to pass. Sacked at MIZZ 32 for -9 yards (Z.Young).
-0.9
Q5 0:00
J.Cobb rushed for 2 yards. Tackled by J.Trotter; S.Banner at MIZZ 23.
0.0
Q1 15:00
Oliver Robbins kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
+3.0
Q1 14:53
Jeremiah Cobb run for 6 yds to the AUB 31
+3.0
Q1 14:32
Jackson Arnold pass complete to Perry Thompson for 9 yds to the AUB 40 for a 1ST down
+0.3
Q1 13:59
Jeremiah Cobb run for 4 yds to the AUB 44
+0.9
Q1 13:41
Jackson Arnold pass incomplete to Perry Thompson
+0.2
Q1 13:28
Jackson Arnold pass complete to Eric Singleton Jr. for 4 yds to the AUB 48
-0.3
Q1 12:53
(12:56) No Huddle-Shotgun Arnold,Jackson pass incomplete deep left to Thompson,Perry thrown to MIZ31 PENALTY MIZ Pass Interference (Burks,Marvin) 15 yards from AUB48 to MIZ37, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.
-0.3
Q1 12:47
Jeremiah Cobb run for 5 yds to the MIZ 32
+1.9
Q1 12:18
Jackson Arnold pass incomplete to Perry Thompson
0.0
Q1 12:09
Jackson Arnold run for 12 yds to the MIZ 20 for a 1ST down
-0.3
Q1 11:35
Malcolm Simmons run for 15 yds to the MIZ 5 for a 1ST down
+0.3
Q1 10:54
Jackson Arnold run for 4 yds to the MIZ 1
0.0
Q1 10:23
Jeremiah Cobb run for no gain to the MIZ 1
0.0
Q1 9:54
Jackson Arnold run for 1 yd for a TD Missouri Penalty, Defensive Offside (Stephen Hall) declined (Alex McPherson KICK)
+14.0
Q1 9:54
Connor Gibbs kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
-0.9
Q1 9:48
Beau Pribula pass incomplete to Brett Norfleet
-4.5
Q1 9:40
Ahmad Hardy run for no gain to the MIZ 25
0.0
Q1 8:54
Beau Pribula pass complete to Kevin Coleman Jr. for 15 yds to the MIZ 40 for a 1ST down
-0.1
Q1 8:22
Ahmad Hardy run for no gain to the MIZ 40
-0.3
Q1 7:47
Ahmad Hardy run for a loss of 4 yards to the MIZ 36
0.0
Q1 7:10
Beau Pribula pass incomplete to Kevin Coleman Jr.
+0.6
Q1 7:01
Connor Weselman punt for 42 yds , Malcolm Simmons returns for no gain to the AUB 22
0.0
Q1 6:56
Jackson Arnold pass incomplete to Cam Coleman
+4.3
Q1 6:49
Jackson Arnold pass intercepted Toriano Pride Jr. return for 2 yds to the AUB 29
0.0
Q1 6:42
Beau Pribula run for 6 yds to the AUB 23
-6.9
Q1 6:22
Ahmad Hardy run for 3 yds to the AUB 20
+1.0
Q1 5:43
Ahmad Hardy run for 2 yds to the AUB 18 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q1 4:59
Beau Pribula pass complete to Brett Norfleet for a loss of 1 yard to the AUB 19
0.0
Q1 4:24
Ahmad Hardy run for 1 yd to the AUB 18
0.0
Q1 3:51
Timeout Missouri, clock 03:51
-1.8
Q1 3:37
Beau Pribula pass complete to Joshua Manning for 12 yds to the AUB 6 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q1 3:06
Beau Pribula run for no gain to the AUB 6
0.0
Q1 2:26
Beau Pribula run for no gain to the AUB 6
0.0
Q1 1:48
Missouri Penalty, (Yards) to the AUB 5
+2.0
Q1 1:44
Robert Meyer 24 yd FG GOOD
-9.3
Q1 1:44
Oliver Robbins kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
+2.1
Q1 1:41
Jackson Arnold pass incomplete to Cam Coleman
+4.6
Q1 1:29
Jackson Arnold pass complete to Cam Coleman for 5 yds to the AUB 30
0.0
Q1 1:01
(01:01) PENALTY AUB False Start 5 yards from AUB30 to AUB25. NO PLAY.
0.0
Q1 0:43
Jackson Arnold sacked by Chris McClellan for a loss of 7 yards to the AUB 18
0.0
Q1 0:09
Hudson Kaak punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Kevin Coleman Jr. at the MIZ 35
-0.7
Q1 0:00
Ahmad Hardy run for 17 yds to the AUB 48 for a 1ST down
-4.0
Q2 14:52
Ahmad Hardy run for 7 yds to the AUB 41
-2.3
Q2 14:31
Ahmad Hardy run for 1 yd to the AUB 40
-0.4
Q2 13:52
Beau Pribula run for 6 yds to the AUB 34 for a 1ST down
-0.2
Q2 13:14
Ahmad Hardy run for 1 yd to the AUB 33
0.0
Q2 12:30
Beau Pribula pass complete to Marquis Johnson for 19 yds to the AUB 14 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q2 11:47
Ahmad Hardy run for 3 yds to the AUB 11
-0.2
Q2 10:55
Beau Pribula pass complete to Joshua Manning for 9 yds to the AUB 2 for a 1ST down
+0.5
Q2 10:21
Ahmad Hardy run for 2 yds for a TD (Robert Meyer KICK)
-12.5
Q2 10:21
Oliver Robbins kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
+1.9
Q2 10:15
Jeremiah Cobb run for 2 yds to the AUB 27
+2.9
Q2 9:40
Jackson Arnold pass complete to Eric Singleton Jr. for 3 yds to the AUB 30
0.0
Q2 9:08
Jackson Arnold run for 3 yds to the AUB 33
0.0
Q2 8:35
Hudson Kaak punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Kevin Coleman Jr. at the MIZ 22
0.0
Q2 8:29
Jamal Roberts run for 2 yds to the MIZ 24
-2.9
Q2 7:52
Beau Pribula pass incomplete to Jamal Roberts
-1.9
Q2 7:43
Beau Pribula pass complete to Donovan Olugbode for 11 yds to the MIZ 35 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q2 7:18
(07:22) No Huddle-Shotgun Pribula,Beau pass incomplete deep right to Johnson,Marquis thrown to AUB40 PENALTY AUB Offside (Faulk,Keldric) 5 yards from MIZ35 to MIZ40. NO PLAY.
0.0
Q2 7:01
Beau Pribula pass complete to Ahmad Hardy for 11 yds to the AUB 49 for a 1ST down
-0.8
Q2 6:36
Ahmad Hardy run for 2 yds to the AUB 47
-1.0
Q2 5:47
Beau Pribula pass complete to Donovan Olugbode for 8 yds to the AUB 39 for a 1ST down
+0.1
Q2 5:06
Ahmad Hardy run for 4 yds to the AUB 35
-0.1
Q2 4:21
Ahmad Hardy run for a loss of 1 yard to the AUB 36
+0.2
Q2 3:43
Timeout Missouri, clock 03:43
0.0
Q2 3:30
Beau Pribula pass complete to Kevin Coleman Jr. for 20 yds to the AUB 16 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q2 2:56
Beau Pribula run for 2 yds to the AUB 14
0.0
Q2 2:23
Timeout Auburn, clock 02:23
-1.6
Q2 2:22
Beau Pribula pass complete to Marquis Johnson for 3 yds to the AUB 17
0.0
Q2 2:18
Beau Pribula pass intercepted Kayin Lee return for no gain to the AUB 7
0.0
Q2 2:12
Jeremiah Cobb run for 6 yds to the AUB 13
+6.5
Q2 2:00
Timeout Auburn, clock 02:00
-0.1
Q2 1:54
Jackson Arnold run for 3 yds to the AUB 16
0.0
Q2 1:48
Jackson Arnold pass complete to Cam Coleman for 9 yds to the AUB 25 for a 1ST down Missouri Penalty, Roughing The Passer (Nicholas Rodriguez) to the AUB 40 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q2 1:44
Jackson Arnold pass incomplete to Preston Howard
+0.6
Q2 1:37
Jackson Arnold pass complete to Cam Coleman for 46 yds to the MIZ 14 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q2 1:23
Jeremiah Cobb run for 1 yd to the MIZ 13
+1.9
Q2 0:56
Jackson Arnold sacked by Josiah Trotter for a loss of 3 yards to the MIZ 16
0.0
Q2 0:56
Timeout Missouri, clock 00:56
-0.2
Q2 0:45
Jackson Arnold sacked by Sterling Webb for a loss of 6 yards to the MIZ 22
0.0
Q2 0:11
Timeout Auburn, clock 00:11
-0.2
Q2 0:06
Alex McPherson 40 yd FG MISSED
0.0
Q2 0:00
B. Pribula takes a knee
-7.8
Q3 14:59
Connor Gibbs kickoff for 62 yds
+6.2
Q3 14:46
Beau Pribula pass complete to Donovan Olugbode for 13 yds to the MIZ 38 for a 1ST down
-4.4
Q3 14:16
Ahmad Hardy run for 7 yds to the MIZ 45
-1.0
Q3 13:40
Beau Pribula pass incomplete to Donovan Olugbode
-0.5
Q3 13:31
Beau Pribula pass complete to Brett Norfleet for 10 yds to the AUB 45 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q3 12:57
Ahmad Hardy run for 2 yds to the AUB 43
-0.2
Q3 12:10
Beau Pribula sacked by Xavier Atkins for a loss of 9 yards to the MIZ 48
-0.1
Q3 11:26
Beau Pribula pass incomplete to Kevin Coleman Jr.
+0.1
Q3 11:19
Connor Weselman punt for 52 yds for a touchback
+0.3
Q3 11:13
Jackson Arnold run for 8 yds to the AUB 28
+5.9
Q3 10:52
Jackson Arnold pass complete to Cam Coleman for 4 yds to the AUB 32 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q3 10:26
Jeremiah Cobb run for 1 yd to the AUB 33
0.0
Q3 9:51
Jeremiah Cobb run for 41 yds to the MIZ 26 for a 1ST down
+0.3
Q3 9:11
Jackson Arnold run for a loss of 6 yards to the MIZ 32
+2.8
Q3 8:42
Jackson Arnold pass complete to Perry Thompson for 12 yds to the MIZ 20
0.0
Q3 8:19
Jackson Arnold pass incomplete to Perry Thompson
-0.2
Q3 8:14
Alex McPherson 38 yd FG MISSED
-0.4
Q3 8:04
Ahmad Hardy run for 1 yd to the MIZ 21
-6.6
Q3 7:22
Beau Pribula run for 26 yds to the MIZ 47 for a 1ST down
-1.1
Q3 7:02
Ahmad Hardy run for 4 yds to the AUB 49
-1.7
Q3 6:15
Beau Pribula pass incomplete to Jordon Harris
0.0
Q3 5:33
Beau Pribula pass complete to Jamal Roberts for 2 yds to the MIZ 49
0.0
Q3 5:33
Connor Weselman punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Malcolm Simmons at the AUB 14
+0.3
Q3 5:22
Jackson Arnold pass complete to Eric Singleton Jr. for 16 yds to the AUB 30 for a 1ST down
+7.0
Q3 5:08
Jeremiah Cobb run for 7 yds to the AUB 37
0.0
Q3 4:44
Malcolm Simmons run for 9 yds to the AUB 46 for a 1ST down
+0.2
Q3 4:15
Justin Jones run for 1 yd to the AUB 47
+0.8
Q3 3:37
Jackson Arnold run for 9 yds to the MIZ 44 for a 1ST down Missouri Penalty, Personal Foul (Nicholas Rodriguez) to the MIZ 29 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q3 3:30
Jackson Arnold pass incomplete to Eric Singleton Jr.
+2.2
Q3 3:21
Jackson Arnold pass complete to Perry Thompson for 5 yds to the MIZ 24
0.0
Q3 2:50
Jackson Arnold pass complete to Cam Coleman for 7 yds to the MIZ 17 for a 1ST down
-0.2
Q3 2:22
Jeremiah Cobb run for 12 yds to the MIZ 5 for a 1ST down
+0.2
Q3 1:40
Jackson Arnold run for 2 yds to the MIZ 3
0.0
Q3 0:52
Jackson Arnold run for 2 yds to the MIZ 1
0.0
Q3 0:35
Omar Mabson II run for 1 yd for a TD (Alex McPherson KICK)
+22.0
Q3 0:35
Connor Gibbs kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
-1.3
Q3 0:00
Ahmad Hardy run for no gain to the MIZ 25
-4.5
Q4 14:43
Beau Pribula pass complete to Joshua Manning for 3 yds to the MIZ 28
0.0
Q4 14:32
Beau Pribula pass incomplete to Joshua Manning
0.0
Q4 14:23
Connor Weselman punt for 51 yds , Malcolm Simmons returns for no gain to the AUB 23
0.0
Q4 14:15
Jeremiah Cobb run for 23 yds to the AUB 46 for a 1ST down
+4.5
Q4 13:27
Jackson Arnold pass complete to Cam Coleman for 37 yds to the MIZ 17 for a 1ST down
+1.4
Q4 12:53
Jackson Arnold pass complete to Eric Singleton Jr. for 8 yds to the MIZ 9
+1.2
Q4 12:39
Jeremiah Cobb run for 3 yds to the MIZ 6 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q4 12:02
Jackson Arnold run for 3 yds to the MIZ 3
0.0
Q4 11:27
Jackson Arnold run for 2 yds to the MIZ 1
0.0
Q4 11:04
Jeremiah Cobb run for a loss of 3 yards to the MIZ 4
-0.2
Q4 10:31
Alex McPherson 22 yd FG GOOD
+10.8
Q4 10:31
Connor Gibbs kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
-0.2
Q4 10:24
Beau Pribula pass incomplete to Ahmad Hardy
-3.4
Q4 10:14
Beau Pribula pass complete to Joshua Manning for 10 yds to the MIZ 35 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q4 9:43
Beau Pribula pass complete to Joshua Manning for 20 yds to the AUB 45 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q4 9:03
Ahmad Hardy run for a loss of 3 yards to the AUB 48
-0.5
Q4 8:35
Timeout Auburn, clock 08:35
-0.7
Q4 8:28
Beau Pribula pass incomplete to Marquis Johnson
0.0
Q4 8:24
Beau Pribula pass incomplete to Brett Norfleet
0.0
Q4 8:16
Connor Weselman punt for 48 yds for a touchback
0.0
Q4 8:10
Jeremiah Cobb run for 2 yds to the AUB 22
+6.1
Q4 7:32
Jackson Arnold pass complete to Eric Singleton Jr. for 4 yds to the AUB 26
0.0
Q4 6:52
Jackson Arnold sacked by Zion Young for a loss of 4 yards to the AUB 22
+1.5
Q4 6:16
Hudson Kaak punt for 41 yds , Kevin Coleman Jr. returns for 3 yds to the MIZ 40
-0.2
Q4 6:11
Beau Pribula pass incomplete to Kevin Coleman Jr.
-1.8
Q4 6:06
(06:09) No Huddle-Shotgun Pribula,Beau pass incomplete deep right to Johnson,Marquis thrown to AUB32 PENALTY AUB Pass Interference (Crawford,Jay) 15 yards from MIZ40 to AUB45, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.
0.0
Q4 6:06
PENALTY AUB UNR: Unnecessary Roughness (Crawford,Keyron) 15 yards from AUB45 to AUB30, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.
-1.0
Q4 6:00
Beau Pribula pass incomplete
-0.5
Q4 5:48
Beau Pribula pass complete to Donovan Olugbode for 27 yds to the AUB 3 for a 1ST down
+0.6
Q4 5:29
Beau Pribula run for no gain to the AUB 3
0.0
Q4 5:07
Ahmad Hardy run for 3 yds for a TD (Robert Meyer KICK)
-37.8
Q4 5:00
Oliver Robbins kickoff for 65 yds , Rayshawn Pleasant return for 21 yds to the AUB 21
+2.7
Q4 4:53
Jeremiah Cobb run for no gain to the AUB 21
+9.0
Q4 4:22
Jackson Arnold pass incomplete to Eric Singleton Jr.
0.0
Q4 4:09
Jackson Arnold pass complete to Perry Thompson for 34 yds to the MIZ 45 for a 1ST down
+0.5
Q4 3:34
Jackson Arnold pass incomplete to Cam Coleman
+2.1
Q4 3:26
Jeremiah Cobb run for 1 yd to the MIZ 44
0.0
Q4 3:05
Jackson Arnold pass incomplete to Preston Howard
-0.3
Q4 2:58
Hudson Kaak punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Kevin Coleman Jr. at the MIZ 8
-0.3
Q4 2:51
Ahmad Hardy run for no gain to the MIZ 8
-11.3
Q4 2:10
Beau Pribula pass complete to Joshua Manning for 12 yds to the MIZ 20 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q4 2:00
Timeout Auburn, clock 02:00
0.0
Q4 1:44
Beau Pribula run for no gain to the MIZ 20
-1.1
Q4 1:26
Beau Pribula pass complete to Kevin Coleman Jr. for 14 yds to the MIZ 34 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q4 1:14
Beau Pribula run for 1 yd to the MIZ 35
0.0
Q4 1:06
Timeout Missouri, clock 01:06
+0.1
Q4 1:00
Beau Pribula pass complete to Donovan Olugbode for 10 yds to the MIZ 45 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q4 0:47
Beau Pribula pass complete to Jamal Roberts for 15 yds to the AUB 40 for a 1ST down
-1.7
Q4 0:43
Beau Pribula pass complete to Marquis Johnson for 10 yds to the AUB 30 for a 1ST down
-1.0
Q4 0:26
Beau Pribula sacked by Keyron Crawford for a loss of 7 yards to the AUB 37
0.0
Q4 0:26
Timeout Missouri, clock 00:26
0.0
Q4 0:24
Beau Pribula run for a loss of 6 yards to the AUB 43
0.0
Q4 0:24
PENALTY MIZ False Start 5 yards from AUB43 to AUB48. NO PLAY.
+0.4
Q4 0:18
Beau Pribula pass intercepted Jay Crawford return for no gain to the AUB 17
+0.1
Q4 0:00
J. Arnold takes a knee
+13.9
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 5:07
Ahmad Hardy run for 3 yds for a TD (Robert Meyer KICK)
-37.8
TD · Q3 0:35
Omar Mabson II run for 1 yd for a TD (Alex McPherson KICK)
+22
KEY PLAY · Q7 0:00
J.Roberts rushed for -2 yards. Tackled by R.Woodyard at AUB 3.
+19.6