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TENN

Tennessee 20 at Alabama 37

ALA
2025 · Week 8 · Oct 18, 2025 · Bryant-Denny Stadium
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Win probability · ALA
modelALA aheadTENN aheadconfidence bandkey playALA scoreTENN score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDSAFETYTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 12:53 · Jackson Ross punt for 52 yds , Cole Adams returns for a loss of 5 yards to the ALA 9
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+32.0+16.00−16.0−32.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 6Pregame prior+25.1Home team on offense−0.1Score differential−0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.1Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 9:46: Joey Aguilar pass complete to Braylon Staley for 2 yds for a TD (Max Gilbert KICK) — TENN win probability +6.1 pts (now 33%) (top driver: TENN has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:00: Zabien Brown 99 Yd Interception Return (Conor Talty Kick) — ALA win probability +7.7 pts (now 82%) (top driver: TENN has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 0:25: Ty Simpson pass complete to Rico Scott for 11 yds for a TD (Conor Talty KICK) — ALA win probability +8.1 pts (now 95%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 10:51: DeSean Bishop run for 1 yd for a TD (Max Gilbert KICK) — TENN win probability +13.2 pts (now 19%) (top driver: TENN has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 5:49: Daniel Hill run for 4 yds for a TD (Conor Talty KICK) — ALA win probability +5.9 pts (now 98%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ALA made the numbers' call on 4 of 5TENN made the numbers' call on 5 of 8
  1. Q1 12:53TENN 4th & 1 at TENN 34, tied
    Close callPunted · 27.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.4%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 4:22TENN 4th & 1 at ALA 47, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 26.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    26.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    26.0%−0.5
    average punt
  3. Q1 1:45TENN 4th & 19 at TENN 46, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.0%−0.9
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.9%
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:00ALA 4th & 9 at ALA 40, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.5%−0.4
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.9%
    average punt
  5. Q2 8:03ALA 4th & 12 at ALA 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.9%−1.7
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.6%
    average punt
  6. Q2 1:44TENN 4th & 2 at ALA 31, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 23.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    23.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    22.4%−1.1
    54% to make
    Punt
    20.8%−2.7
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:37TENN 4th & 1 at ALA 18, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 23.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    24.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    23.3%−0.7
    79% to make
    Punt
    17.6%−6.4
    average punt
  8. Q3 12:57ALA 4th & 6 at ALA 29, up 16
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.4%−0.4
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.9%
    average punt
  9. Q3 5:51TENN 4th & 19 at ALA 44, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.6%−2.3
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    16.5%−1.4
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    17.9%
    average punt
  10. Q4 14:44TENN 4th & 4 at TENN 31, down 17
    Close callWent for it · 5.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.5%−0.5
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    6.0%
    average punt
  11. Q4 6:19ALA 4th & 2 at TENN 11, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 91.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    91.8%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    90.9%−0.9
    87% to make
    Punt
    86.4%−5.3
    average punt
  12. Q4 3:09TENN 4th & 11 at ALA 16, down 17
    Close callWent for it · 2.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.9%−0.4
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    2.3%
    81% to make
    Punt
    1.3%−1.1
    average punt
  13. Q4 2:04ALA 4th & 2 at ALA 24, up 17
    Close callPunted · 98.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.9%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ALA made the numbers' call on 5 of 5TENN made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 6:51ALA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 9:46TENN Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    30.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    30.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 4:05ALA Touchdown, up 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:00ALA Touchdown, up 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 0:25ALA Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 10:51TENN Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    10.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    10.4%−0.4
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 5:49ALA Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.7%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TENNDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 2:0324% → 25%
Q1 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
75.9%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Chris Brazzell II for 8 yds to the TENN 33Similar
Q1 14:36
2ND & 2
OWN 33
-5
75.8%
Tennessee Penalty, False Start (Wendell Moe Jr.) to the TENN 28Similar
Q1 14:05
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+5
75.7%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Mike Matthews for 5 yds to the TENN 33Similar
Q1 13:35
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+1
75.6%
DeSean Bishop run for 1 yd to the TENN 34Similar
Q1 12:53
4TH & 1
OWN 34
-5
75.5%
Jackson Ross punt for 52 yds , Cole Adams returns for a loss of 5 yards to the ALA 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 2TD
12 plays · 91 yds · 5:5375% → 77%
Q1 12:44
1ST & 10
OWN 9
-3
75.4%
Jam Miller run for a loss of 3 yards to the ALA 6Similar
Q1 12:08
2ND & 13
OWN 6
0
75.3%
Ty Simpson pass incomplete to Isaiah HortonSimilar
Q1 11:53
3RD & 13
OWN 6
+18
75.1%
Ty Simpson pass complete to Josh Cuevas for 18 yds to the ALA 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:14
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+5
75.1%
Simpson, Ty pass incomplete to Bernard, Germie, PENALTY TENN offside (Moi, Jaxson) 5 yards to the ALA29, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 10:50
1ST & 5
OWN 29
+1
75.1%
Jam Miller run for 1 yd to the ALA 30Similar
Q1 10:35
2ND & 4
OWN 30
+10
75.1%
Ty Simpson pass complete to Lotzeir Brooks for 10 yds to the ALA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:57
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
75.1%
Ty Simpson pass complete to Lotzeir Brooks for 4 yds to the ALA 44Similar
Q1 9:05
2ND & 6
OWN 44
+31
75.1%
Ty Simpson pass complete to Ryan Williams for 31 yds to the TENN 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:26
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+16
75.1%
Ryan Williams run for 16 yds to the TENN 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+5
75.0%
Germie Bernard run for 5 yds to the TENN 4Similar
Q1 7:27
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
74.9%
Jam Miller run for 2 yds to the TENN 2Similar
Q1 6:51
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
76.8%
Ty Simpson pass complete to Isaiah Horton for 2 yds for a TD (Conor Talty KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 3PUNT
13 plays · 21 yds · 4:5824% → 23%
Q1 6:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-9
76.3%
Joey Aguilar sacked by Yhonzae Pierre for a loss of 9 yards to the TENN 16Similar
Q1 6:05
2ND & 19
OWN 16
+11
76.4%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Chris Brazzell II for 11 yds to the TENN 27Similar
Q1 5:36
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+17
76.6%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Chris Brazzell II for 17 yds to the TENN 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:13
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
75.9%
Joey Aguilar pass incomplete to Mike MatthewsSimilar
Q1 5:07
2ND & 10
OWN 44
0
76.0%
Joey Aguilar pass incomplete to Braylon StaleySimilar
Q1 4:34
3RD & 10
OWN 44
+9
76.3%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Miles Kitselman for 9 yds to the ALA 47Similar
Q1 4:22
4TH & 1
OPP 47
+2
76.0%
Miles Kitselman run for 2 yds to the ALA 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:50
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
75.5%
DeSean Bishop run for no gain to the ALA 45Similar
Q1 3:26
2ND & 10
OPP 45
-5
75.6%
Aguilar, Joey pass complete to Brazzell II, Chris for 17 yards to the ALA28, PENALTY TENN ineligible downfield on pass 5 yards to the 50 yardline, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 2:52
2ND & 15
50
+9
76.1%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Braylon Staley for 9 yds to the ALA 41Similar
Q1 2:20
3RD & 6
OPP 41
-13
75.3%
Joey Aguilar sacked by Yhonzae Pierre for a loss of 13 yards to the TENN 46Similar
Q1 1:45
4TH & 19
OWN 46
0
76.7%
Jackson Ross punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Cole Adams at the ALA 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 4PUNT
9 plays · 30 yds · 2:1877% → 76%
Q1 1:18
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+19
76.5%
Ty Simpson pass complete to Ryan Williams for 19 yds to the ALA 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+5
76.6%
Ty Simpson pass complete to Jam Miller for 5 yds to the ALA 34Similar
Q1 0:12
2ND & 5
OWN 34
+5
77.0%
Jam Miller run for 5 yds to the ALA 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-5
77.1%
Alabama Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the ALA 34Similar
Q2 14:54
1ST & 15
OWN 34
0
76.6%
Ty Simpson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:22
2ND & 15
OWN 34
+6
76.5%
Ty Simpson pass complete to Germie Bernard for 6 yds to the ALA 40Similar
Q2 14:07
3RD & 9
OWN 40
0
76.3%
Ty Simpson pass incomplete to Lotzeir BrooksSimilar
Q2 14:00
4TH & 9
OWN 40
0
75.6%
Blake Doud punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Boo Carter at the TENN 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 5TD
10 plays · 78 yds · 4:0824% → 33%
Q2 13:54
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+9
76.0%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Braylon Staley for 9 yds to the TENN 31Similar
Q2 13:26
2ND & 1
OWN 31
+11
75.1%
Peyton Lewis run for 11 yds to the TENN 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:58
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+6
75.2%
Peyton Lewis run for 6 yds to the TENN 48Similar
Q2 12:24
2ND & 4
OWN 48
+18
74.7%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Mike Matthews for 18 yds to the ALA 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:59
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+2
73.7%
Peyton Lewis run for 2 yds to the ALA 32Similar
Q2 11:33
2ND & 8
OPP 32
0
73.7%
Joey Aguilar pass incomplete to Miles KitselmanSimilar
Q2 11:05
3RD & 8
OPP 32
+30
74.5%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Braylon Staley for 30 yds to the ALA 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-2
73.4%
Peyton Lewis run for a loss of 2 yards to the ALA 4Similar
Q2 10:26
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
73.3%
Joey Aguilar run for 2 yds to the ALA 2Similar
Q2 9:46
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
67.2%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Braylon Staley for 2 yds for a TD (Max Gilbert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 6PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 1:3571% → 69%
Q2 9:38
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-2
71.1%
Kevin Riley run for a loss of 2 yards to the ALA 33Similar
Q2 8:52
2ND & 12
OWN 33
0
70.5%
Kevin Riley run for no gain to the ALA 33Similar
Q2 8:11
3RD & 12
OWN 33
0
69.5%
Ty Simpson pass incomplete to Lotzeir BrooksSimilar
Q2 8:03
4TH & 12
OWN 33
0
68.9%
Blake Doud punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Boo Carter at the TENN 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 7SF
3 plays · -18 yds · 0:3132% → 28%
Q2 7:58
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
67.8%
Joey Aguilar pass incomplete to Peyton LewisSimilar
Q2 7:39
2ND & 10
OWN 18
-9
67.9%
Aguilar, Joey pass complete to Brazzell II, Chris for loss of 12 yards to the TENN6, PENALTY TENN illegal block (Staley, Braylon) 9 yards to the TENN9, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:27
2ND & 19
OWN 9
-9
72.0%
Joey Aguilar sacked by Yhonzae Pierre for a loss of 9 yards for a SAFETY Tennessee Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Joey Aguilar) to the TENN 0Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 8TD
8 plays · 69 yds · 3:0073% → 80%
Q2 7:05
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+28
72.5%
Ty Simpson pass complete to Germie Bernard for 28 yds to the TENN 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:26
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
74.3%
Ty Simpson pass incomplete to Germie BernardSimilar
Q2 5:59
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+25
74.1%
Ty Simpson pass complete to Lotzeir Brooks for 25 yds to the TENN 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:45
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
74.6%
Ty Simpson run for no gain to the TENN 16Similar
Q2 5:05
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+14
74.5%
Ty Simpson pass complete to Ryan Williams for 14 yds to the TENN 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
74.5%
Jam Miller run for 1 yd to the TENN 1Similar
Q2 4:05
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
80.2%
Jam Miller run for 1 yd for a TD (Conor Talty KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 9END OF HALF TD
21 plays · 74 yds · 3:5521% → 18%
Q2 3:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+19
78.7%
Star Thomas run for 19 yds to the TENN 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:40
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+17
77.4%
Joey Aguilar run for no gain to the ALA 44 for a 1ST down Alabama Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (James Smith) to the ALA 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:14
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-5
76.9%
Tennessee Penalty, False Start (Shamurad Umarov) to the ALA 44Similar
Q2 2:49
1ST & 15
OPP 44
+4
77.3%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Mike Matthews for 4 yds to the ALA 40Similar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 11
OPP 40
+4
76.6%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Braylon Staley for 4 yds to the ALA 36Similar
Q2 1:51
3RD & 7
OPP 36
+5
76.5%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Miles Kitselman for 5 yds to the ALA 31Similar
Q2 1:44
4TH & 2
OPP 31
+4
77.1%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Miles Kitselman for 4 yds to the ALA 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:28
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
74.8%
Joey Aguilar pass incomplete to Braylon StaleySimilar
Q2 1:19
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+1
75.3%
Star Thomas run for 1 yd to the ALA 26Similar
Q2 0:41
3RD & 9
OPP 26
+8
76.4%
Joey Aguilar run for 8 yds to the ALA 18Similar
Q2 0:37
4TH & 1
OPP 18
+4
76.6%
DeSean Bishop run for 4 yds to the ALA 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:33
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
74.9%
Joey Aguilar pass incomplete to Chris Brazzell IISimilar
Q2 0:21
2ND & 10
OPP 14
+9
74.6%
DeSean Bishop run for 9 yds to the ALA 5Similar
Q2 0:13
3RD & 1
OPP 5
+3
75.4%
DeSean Bishop run for 3 yds to the ALA 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
74.2%
DeSean Bishop run for 1 yd to the ALA 1Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-99
82.4%
Zabien Brown 99 Yd Interception Return (Conor Talty Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:5788% → 87%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
87.8%
Jam Miller run for 2 yds to the ALA 27Similar
Q3 14:19
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-5
87.9%
Jam Miller run for a loss of 5 yards to the ALA 22Similar
Q3 13:29
3RD & 13
OWN 22
+7
87.2%
Ty Simpson run for 7 yds to the ALA 29Similar
Q3 12:57
4TH & 6
OWN 29
+7
87.2%
Blake Doud punt for 39 yds , Boo Carter returns for 7 yds to the TENN 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 11TD
4 plays · 61 yds · 1:2714% → 19%
Q3 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+7
86.0%
DeSean Bishop run for 7 yds to the TENN 46Similar
Q3 12:19
2ND & 3
OWN 46
+12
85.7%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Braylon Staley for 12 yds to the ALA 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:52
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-2
85.8%
Joey Aguilar sacked by James Smith for a loss of 2 yards to the ALA 44Similar
Q3 11:18
2ND & 12
OPP 44
+44
80.7%
DeSean Bishop run for 44 yds for a TD (Joey Aguilar intercepted)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 12FUMBLE
10 plays · 28 yds · 3:3382% → 84%
Q3 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
82.4%
Ty Simpson pass complete to Germie Bernard for 8 yds to the ALA 33Similar
Q3 10:45
2ND & 2
OWN 33
0
83.0%
Jam Miller run for no gain to the ALA 33Similar
Q3 9:56
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+15
82.6%
Ty Simpson pass complete to Germie Bernard for 15 yds to the ALA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:20
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
84.1%
Ty Simpson pass incomplete to Jam MillerSimilar
Q3 8:50
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+9
84.1%
Ty Simpson pass complete to Ryan Williams for 9 yds to the TENN 43Similar
Q3 8:26
3RD & 1
OPP 43
+3
83.8%
Jam Miller run for 3 yds to the TENN 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:52
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
84.6%
Ty Simpson pass incomplete to Jam MillerSimilar
Q3 7:48
2ND & 10
OPP 40
0
84.5%
Ty Simpson pass incomplete to Germie BernardSimilar
Q3 7:42
3RD & 10
OPP 40
-7
83.7%
Ty Simpson run for a loss of 7 yards to the TENN 47 Ty Simpson fumbled, recovered by TENN Joshua JosephsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 13PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 1:4719% → 16%
Q3 7:38
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
81.5%
Joey Aguilar pass incomplete to Mike MatthewsSimilar
Q3 7:26
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+18
81.8%
DeSean Bishop run for 18 yds to the ALA 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:05
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-2
79.9%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Braylon Staley for a loss of 2 yards to the ALA 37Similar
Q3 6:35
2ND & 12
OPP 37
-7
81.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 7 yards to the ALA 44Similar
Q3 6:01
3RD & 19
OPP 44
0
82.9%
Joey Aguilar pass incomplete to Mike MatthewsSimilar
Q3 5:51
4TH & 19
OPP 44
0
83.9%
Jackson Ross punt for 43 yds, downed at the ALA 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 14TD
11 plays · 99 yds · 5:0484% → 95%
Q3 5:29
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+14
83.9%
Ty Simpson pass complete to Ryan Williams for 14 yds to the ALA 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+6
84.1%
Jam Miller run for 6 yds to the ALA 21Similar
Q3 4:44
2ND & 4
OWN 21
+2
84.7%
Jam Miller run for 2 yds to the ALA 23Similar
Q3 3:52
3RD & 2
OWN 23
+15
82.9%
Ty Simpson pass complete to Josh Cuevas for 15 yds to the ALA 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+18
84.9%
Germie Bernard run for 18 yds to the TENN 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:37
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-5
85.7%
Alabama Penalty, False Start (Parker Brailsford) to the TENN 49Similar
Q3 2:18
1ST & 15
OPP 49
+16
85.1%
Ty Simpson pass complete to Daniel Hill for 16 yds to the TENN 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:33
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+5
86.2%
Daniel Hill run for 5 yds to the TENN 28Similar
Q3 0:47
2ND & 5
OPP 28
+17
87.2%
Germie Bernard run for 17 yds to the TENN 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:25
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
95.3%
Ty Simpson pass complete to Rico Scott for 11 yds for a TD (Conor Talty KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 15TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 4:196% → 19%
Q3 0:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
94.3%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Braylon Staley for 4 yds to the TENN 29Similar
Q3 0:01
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+2
93.9%
DeSean Bishop run for 2 yds to the TENN 31Similar
Q4 14:55
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
94.0%
Joey Aguilar pass incomplete to Miles KitselmanSimilar
Q4 14:44
4TH & 4
OWN 31
+12
94.5%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Mike Matthews for 12 yds to the TENN 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:19
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+12
94.2%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Chris Brazzell II for 12 yds to the ALA 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:50
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+1
94.5%
Joey Aguilar run for 1 yd to the ALA 44Similar
Q4 13:14
2ND & 9
OPP 44
+22
94.6%
DeSean Bishop run for 22 yds to the ALA 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:41
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+6
94.0%
Star Thomas run for 6 yds to the ALA 16Similar
Q4 12:24
2ND & 4
OPP 16
0
94.0%
Joey Aguilar pass incomplete to Braylon StaleySimilar
Q4 11:53
3RD & 4
OPP 16
+4
94.0%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Braylon Staley for 4 yds to the ALA 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:30
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+8
94.5%
DeSean Bishop run for 8 yds to the ALA 4Similar
Q4 11:09
2ND & 2
OPP 4
+3
94.6%
DeSean Bishop run for 3 yds to the ALA 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
81.4%
DeSean Bishop run for 1 yd for a TD (Max Gilbert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 16TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 4:5687% → 98%
Q4 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
86.9%
Kevin Riley run for no gain to the ALA 25Similar
Q4 10:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
87.2%
Ty Simpson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:54
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+15
86.6%
Simpson, Ty pass incomplete to Williams, Ryan, PENALTY TENN pass interference (Hood, Colton) 15 yards to the ALA40, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN ALA.Similar
Q4 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+10
88.6%
Daniel Hill run for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:03
1ST & 10
50
+15
90.7%
Simpson, Ty pass incomplete to Brooks, Lotzeir, PENALTY TENN pass interference (Wright, William) 15 yards to the TENN35, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN ALA.Similar
Q4 8:45
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+3
91.4%
Ty Simpson pass complete to Germie Bernard for 3 yds to the TENN 32Similar
Q4 8:18
2ND & 7
OPP 32
+13
92.0%
Daniel Hill run for 13 yds to the TENN 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:35
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+9
92.1%
Germie Bernard run for 9 yds to the TENN 10Similar
Q4 7:07
2ND & 1
OPP 10
-1
92.6%
Daniel Hill run for a loss of 1 yard to the TENN 11Similar
Q4 6:27
3RD & 2
OPP 11
0
92.7%
Ty Simpson pass incomplete to Josh CuevasSimilar
Q4 6:19
4TH & 2
OPP 11
+7
92.2%
Ty Simpson run for 3 yds to the TENN 8 for a 1ST down Tennessee Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Jeremiah Telander) to the TENN 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
98.0%
Daniel Hill run for 4 yds for a TD (Conor Talty KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 17DOWNS
13 plays · 59 yds · 2:263% → 2%
Q4 5:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
97.0%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Dasaahn Brame for 10 yds to the TENN 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:26
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
97.3%
Joey Aguilar pass incomplete to Dasaahn BrameSimilar
Q4 5:05
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+20
97.4%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Braylon Staley for 20 yds to the ALA 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:49
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+19
97.4%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Chris Brazzell II for 19 yds to the ALA 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:37
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
96.9%
Joey Aguilar pass incomplete to Dasaahn BrameSimilar
Q4 4:30
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+11
97.1%
Aguilar, Joey pass incomplete to Brame, Dasaahn, PENALTY ALA pass interference (Mincey, Zavier) 11 yards to the ALA15, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN TENN.Similar
Q4 4:20
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-4
96.9%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Chris Brazzell II for a loss of 4 yards to the ALA 19Similar
Q4 3:56
2ND & 14
OPP 19
0
97.2%
Joey Aguilar pass incomplete to Braylon StaleySimilar
Q4 3:45
3RD & 14
OPP 19
+3
97.4%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Chris Brazzell II for 3 yds to the ALA 16Similar
Q4 3:09
4TH & 11
OPP 16
0
97.7%
Joey Aguilar pass incomplete to Braylon StaleySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 18PUNT
6 plays · 8 yds · 1:0399% → 100%
Q4 3:07
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+3
99.4%
Daniel Hill run for 3 yds to the ALA 19Similar
Q4 2:16
2ND & 7
OWN 19
0
99.4%
Daniel Hill run for no gain to the ALA 19Similar
Q4 2:10
3RD & 7
OWN 19
+5
99.5%
Ty Simpson run for 5 yds to the ALA 24Similar
Q4 2:04
4TH & 2
OWN 24
0
99.5%
Blake Doud punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Boo Carter at the TENN 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 19END OF GAME
11 plays · 64 yds · 1:471% → 1%
Q4 1:57
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
99.3%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Dasaahn Brame for 9 yds to the TENN 44Similar
Q4 1:51
2ND & 1
OWN 44
+19
99.1%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Dasaahn Brame for 19 yds to the ALA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:43
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+15
99.1%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Peyton Lewis for 15 yds to the ALA 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:36
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+10
99.0%
Aguilar, Joey pass incomplete, PENALTY ALA holding (Jefferson, Justin) 10 yards to the ALA12, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN TENN.Similar
Q4 1:31
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+10
99.0%
Aguilar, Joey pass incomplete to Brazzell II, Chris, PENALTY ALA pass interference (Jackson, Domani) 10 yards to the ALA2, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN TENN.Similar
Q4 1:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-3
98.8%
Peyton Lewis run for a loss of 3 yards to the ALA 5Similar
Q4 1:08
2ND & 0
OPP 5
+3
98.4%
Aguilar, Joey pass incomplete to Brazzell II, Chris, PENALTY ALA pass interference (Jackson, Domani) 3 yards to the ALA2, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN TENN.Similar
Q4 0:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
98.8%
Peyton Lewis run for 1 yd to the ALA 1Similar
Q4 0:31
2ND & 0
OPP 1
-4
97.9%
Tennessee Penalty, False Start (Shamurad Umarov) to the ALA 5Similar
Q4 0:14
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
98.9%
Joey Aguilar pass incomplete to Braylon StaleySimilar
Q4 0:10
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
98.9%
Peyton Lewis run for 4 yds to the ALA 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 10:51
DeSean Bishop run for 1 yd for a TD (Max Gilbert KICK)
-13.2
TD · Q3 0:25
Ty Simpson pass complete to Rico Scott for 11 yds for a TD (Conor Talty KICK)
+8.1
TD · Q2 0:00
Zabien Brown 99 Yd Interception Return (Conor Talty Kick)
+7.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com