TENN
Tennessee 20 at Alabama 37
ALA2025 · Week 8 · Oct 18, 2025 · Bryant-Denny Stadium
Win probability · ALA
modelALA aheadTENN aheadconfidence bandkey play
What moved it - hover a play below
Q4 0:10 · Peyton Lewis run for 4 yds to the ALA 1
01
TENN has the ball
+21
02
TENN trailing by 17
+8
03
Blowout context favors the defense
+4
04
Market gave ALA a 73% pregame chance
+1
Play by play - hover to pin the curve
Q1 15:00
Conor Talty kickoff for 40 yds fair catch by Peyton Lewis at the TENN 2
0.0
Q1 14:56
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Chris Brazzell II for 8 yds to the TENN 33
-1.8
Q1 14:36
Tennessee Penalty, False Start (Wendell Moe Jr.) to the TENN 28
-1.0
Q1 14:05
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Mike Matthews for 5 yds to the TENN 33
0.0
Q1 13:35
DeSean Bishop run for 1 yd to the TENN 34
0.0
Q1 12:53
Jackson Ross punt for 52 yds , Cole Adams returns for a loss of 5 yards to the ALA 9
0.0
Q1 12:44
Jam Miller run for a loss of 3 yards to the ALA 6
+2.6
Q1 12:08
Ty Simpson pass incomplete to Isaiah Horton
0.0
Q1 11:53
Ty Simpson pass complete to Josh Cuevas for 18 yds to the ALA 24 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q1 11:14
Simpson, Ty pass incomplete to Bernard, Germie, PENALTY TENN offside (Moi, Jaxson) 5 yards to the ALA29, NO PLAY.
0.0
Q1 10:50
Jam Miller run for 1 yd to the ALA 30
0.0
Q1 10:35
Ty Simpson pass complete to Lotzeir Brooks for 10 yds to the ALA 40 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q1 9:57
Ty Simpson pass complete to Lotzeir Brooks for 4 yds to the ALA 44
+0.7
Q1 9:05
Ty Simpson pass complete to Ryan Williams for 31 yds to the TENN 25 for a 1ST down
+0.3
Q1 8:26
Ryan Williams run for 16 yds to the TENN 9 for a 1ST down
+0.8
Q1 7:58
Germie Bernard run for 5 yds to the TENN 4
0.0
Q1 7:27
Jam Miller run for 2 yds to the TENN 2
0.0
Q1 6:51
Ty Simpson pass complete to Isaiah Horton for 2 yds for a TD (Conor Talty KICK)
+9.6
Q1 6:51
Conor Talty kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
-0.3
Q1 6:43
Joey Aguilar sacked by Yhonzae Pierre for a loss of 9 yards to the TENN 16
-2.7
Q1 6:05
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Chris Brazzell II for 11 yds to the TENN 27
+0.1
Q1 5:36
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Chris Brazzell II for 17 yds to the TENN 44 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q1 5:13
Joey Aguilar pass incomplete to Mike Matthews
-1.0
Q1 5:07
Joey Aguilar pass incomplete to Braylon Staley
0.0
Q1 4:34
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Miles Kitselman for 9 yds to the ALA 47
-0.1
Q1 4:22
Miles Kitselman run for 2 yds to the ALA 45 for a 1ST down
-0.2
Q1 3:50
DeSean Bishop run for no gain to the ALA 45
-0.3
Q1 3:26
Aguilar, Joey pass complete to Brazzell II, Chris for 17 yards to the ALA28, PENALTY TENN ineligible downfield on pass 5 yards to the 50 yardline, NO PLAY.
0.0
Q1 2:52
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Braylon Staley for 9 yds to the ALA 41
+0.2
Q1 2:20
Joey Aguilar sacked by Yhonzae Pierre for a loss of 13 yards to the TENN 46
-0.7
Q1 1:45
Jackson Ross punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Cole Adams at the ALA 10
+0.6
Q1 1:18
Ty Simpson pass complete to Ryan Williams for 19 yds to the ALA 29 for a 1ST down
+3.2
Q1 0:55
Ty Simpson pass complete to Jam Miller for 5 yds to the ALA 34
0.0
Q1 0:12
Jam Miller run for 5 yds to the ALA 39 for a 1ST down
-0.1
Q2 15:00
Alabama Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the ALA 34
+0.3
Q2 14:54
Ty Simpson pass incomplete
-0.4
Q2 14:22
Ty Simpson pass complete to Germie Bernard for 6 yds to the ALA 40
0.0
Q2 14:22
Timeout Alabama, clock 14:22
-0.6
Q2 14:07
Ty Simpson pass incomplete to Lotzeir Brooks
0.0
Q2 14:00
Blake Doud punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Boo Carter at the TENN 22
-0.4
Q2 13:54
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Braylon Staley for 9 yds to the TENN 31
-1.0
Q2 13:26
Peyton Lewis run for 11 yds to the TENN 42 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q2 12:58
Peyton Lewis run for 6 yds to the TENN 48
-0.6
Q2 12:24
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Mike Matthews for 18 yds to the ALA 34 for a 1ST down
-0.4
Q2 11:59
Peyton Lewis run for 2 yds to the ALA 32
-0.6
Q2 11:33
Joey Aguilar pass incomplete to Miles Kitselman
0.0
Q2 11:05
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Braylon Staley for 30 yds to the ALA 2 for a 1ST down
-0.3
Q2 10:55
Peyton Lewis run for a loss of 2 yards to the ALA 4
0.0
Q2 10:26
Joey Aguilar run for 2 yds to the ALA 2
0.0
Q2 9:46
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Braylon Staley for 2 yds for a TD (Max Gilbert KICK)
-16.2
Q2 9:46
Josh Turbyville kickoff for 61 yds
+2.7
Q2 9:38
Kevin Riley run for a loss of 2 yards to the ALA 33
+3.7
Q2 8:52
Kevin Riley run for no gain to the ALA 33
0.0
Q2 8:11
Ty Simpson pass incomplete to Lotzeir Brooks
+0.9
Q2 8:03
Blake Doud punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Boo Carter at the TENN 18
-0.3
Q2 7:58
Joey Aguilar pass incomplete to Peyton Lewis
-6.3
Q2 7:39
Aguilar, Joey pass complete to Brazzell II, Chris for loss of 12 yards to the TENN6, PENALTY TENN illegal block (Staley, Braylon) 9 yards to the TENN9, NO PLAY.
0.0
Q2 7:27
Joey Aguilar sacked by Yhonzae Pierre for a loss of 9 yards for a SAFETY Tennessee Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Joey Aguilar) to the TENN 0
+7.4
Q2 7:21
Josh Turbyville kickoff for 67 yds , Lotzeir Brooks return for 18 yds to the ALA 31
0.0
Q2 7:05
Ty Simpson pass complete to Germie Bernard for 28 yds to the TENN 41 for a 1ST down
+4.4
Q2 6:26
Ty Simpson pass incomplete to Germie Bernard
+1.4
Q2 5:59
Ty Simpson pass complete to Lotzeir Brooks for 25 yds to the TENN 16 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q2 5:45
Ty Simpson run for no gain to the TENN 16
0.0
Q2 5:05
Ty Simpson pass complete to Ryan Williams for 14 yds to the TENN 2 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q2 4:40
Jam Miller run for 1 yd to the TENN 1
0.0
Q2 4:05
Jam Miller run for 1 yd for a TD (Conor Talty KICK)
+8.9
Q2 4:05
Conor Talty kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
-0.4
Q2 3:55
Star Thomas run for 19 yds to the TENN 44 for a 1ST down
-1.2
Q2 3:40
Joey Aguilar run for no gain to the ALA 44 for a 1ST down Alabama Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (James Smith) to the ALA 39 for a 1ST down
-0.7
Q2 3:14
Tennessee Penalty, False Start (Shamurad Umarov) to the ALA 44
-0.6
Q2 2:49
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Mike Matthews for 4 yds to the ALA 40
0.0
Q2 2:00
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Braylon Staley for 4 yds to the ALA 36
-0.3
Q2 1:51
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Miles Kitselman for 5 yds to the ALA 31
0.0
Q2 1:51
Timeout Alabama, clock 01:51
+0.5
Q2 1:44
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Miles Kitselman for 4 yds to the ALA 27 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q2 1:28
Joey Aguilar pass incomplete to Braylon Staley
-0.5
Q2 1:19
Star Thomas run for 1 yd to the ALA 26
0.0
Q2 0:41
Joey Aguilar run for 8 yds to the ALA 18
+1.8
Q2 0:37
DeSean Bishop run for 4 yds to the ALA 14 for a 1ST down
+0.5
Q2 0:37
Timeout Tennessee, clock 00:37
-0.9
Q2 0:33
Joey Aguilar pass incomplete to Chris Brazzell II
0.0
Q2 0:21
DeSean Bishop run for 9 yds to the ALA 5
-0.7
Q2 0:13
DeSean Bishop run for 3 yds to the ALA 2 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q2 0:09
DeSean Bishop run for 1 yd to the ALA 1
0.0
Q2 0:09
Timeout Tennessee, clock 00:09
0.0
Q2 0:09
Timeout Alabama, clock 00:09
0.0
Q2 0:00
Zabien Brown 99 Yd Interception Return (Conor Talty Kick)
+8.8
Q3 15:00
Josh Turbyville kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
+0.8
Q3 14:54
Jam Miller run for 2 yds to the ALA 27
+2.2
Q3 14:19
Jam Miller run for a loss of 5 yards to the ALA 22
0.0
Q3 13:29
Ty Simpson run for 7 yds to the ALA 29
+0.4
Q3 12:57
Blake Doud punt for 39 yds , Boo Carter returns for 7 yds to the TENN 39
0.0
Q3 12:45
DeSean Bishop run for 7 yds to the TENN 46
-2.8
Q3 12:19
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Braylon Staley for 12 yds to the ALA 42 for a 1ST down
+0.2
Q3 11:52
Joey Aguilar sacked by James Smith for a loss of 2 yards to the ALA 44
-0.4
Q3 11:18
DeSean Bishop run for 44 yds for a TD (Joey Aguilar intercepted)
-4.5
Q3 11:18
Josh Turbyville kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
+0.4
Q3 11:15
Ty Simpson pass complete to Germie Bernard for 8 yds to the ALA 33
+2.4
Q3 10:45
Jam Miller run for no gain to the ALA 33
0.0
Q3 9:56
Ty Simpson pass complete to Germie Bernard for 15 yds to the ALA 48 for a 1ST down
-0.1
Q3 9:20
Ty Simpson pass incomplete to Jam Miller
+0.1
Q3 8:50
Ty Simpson pass complete to Ryan Williams for 9 yds to the TENN 43
0.0
Q3 8:26
Jam Miller run for 3 yds to the TENN 40 for a 1ST down
+0.1
Q3 7:52
Ty Simpson pass incomplete to Jam Miller
+0.1
Q3 7:48
Ty Simpson pass incomplete to Germie Bernard
0.0
Q3 7:42
Ty Simpson run for a loss of 7 yards to the TENN 47 Ty Simpson fumbled, recovered by TENN Joshua Josephs
-0.1
Q3 7:38
Joey Aguilar pass incomplete to Mike Matthews
-2.0
Q3 7:26
DeSean Bishop run for 18 yds to the ALA 35 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q3 7:05
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Braylon Staley for a loss of 2 yards to the ALA 37
-0.9
Q3 6:35
TEAM run for a loss of 7 yards to the ALA 44
+0.3
Q3 6:01
Joey Aguilar pass incomplete to Mike Matthews
+0.3
Q3 5:51
Jackson Ross punt for 43 yds, downed at the ALA 1
0.0
Q3 5:29
Ty Simpson pass complete to Ryan Williams for 14 yds to the ALA 15 for a 1ST down
+3.1
Q3 5:10
Jam Miller run for 6 yds to the ALA 21
+0.4
Q3 4:44
Jam Miller run for 2 yds to the ALA 23
0.0
Q3 4:06
Timeout Alabama, clock 04:06
-0.2
Q3 3:52
Ty Simpson pass complete to Josh Cuevas for 15 yds to the ALA 38 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q3 3:10
Germie Bernard run for 18 yds to the TENN 44 for a 1ST down
+0.1
Q3 2:37
Alabama Penalty, False Start (Parker Brailsford) to the TENN 49
+0.2
Q3 2:18
Ty Simpson pass complete to Daniel Hill for 16 yds to the TENN 33 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q3 1:33
Daniel Hill run for 5 yds to the TENN 28
+0.6
Q3 0:47
Germie Bernard run for 17 yds to the TENN 11 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q3 0:25
Ty Simpson pass complete to Rico Scott for 11 yds for a TD (Conor Talty KICK)
+5.6
Q3 0:25
Conor Talty kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
-0.1
Q3 0:10
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Braylon Staley for 4 yds to the TENN 29
-1.1
Q3 0:01
DeSean Bishop run for 2 yds to the TENN 31
0.0
Q4 14:55
Joey Aguilar pass incomplete to Miles Kitselman
0.0
Q4 14:44
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Mike Matthews for 12 yds to the TENN 43 for a 1ST down
-0.1
Q4 14:19
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Chris Brazzell II for 12 yds to the ALA 45 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q4 13:50
Joey Aguilar run for 1 yd to the ALA 44
0.0
Q4 13:14
DeSean Bishop run for 22 yds to the ALA 22 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q4 12:41
Star Thomas run for 6 yds to the ALA 16
+0.3
Q4 12:24
Joey Aguilar pass incomplete to Braylon Staley
0.0
Q4 11:53
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Braylon Staley for 4 yds to the ALA 12 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q4 11:30
DeSean Bishop run for 8 yds to the ALA 4
0.0
Q4 11:09
DeSean Bishop run for 3 yds to the ALA 1 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q4 10:51
DeSean Bishop run for 1 yd for a TD (Max Gilbert KICK)
-6.8
Q4 10:51
Josh Turbyville kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
+0.7
Q4 10:45
Kevin Riley run for no gain to the ALA 25
+2.4
Q4 10:00
Ty Simpson pass incomplete
+0.5
Q4 9:54
Simpson, Ty pass incomplete to Williams, Ryan, PENALTY TENN pass interference (Hood, Colton) 15 yards to the ALA40, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN ALA.
-0.1
Q4 9:45
Daniel Hill run for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down
0.0
Q4 9:03
Simpson, Ty pass incomplete to Brooks, Lotzeir, PENALTY TENN pass interference (Wright, William) 15 yards to the TENN35, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN ALA.
+0.8
Q4 8:45
Ty Simpson pass complete to Germie Bernard for 3 yds to the TENN 32
0.0
Q4 8:18
Daniel Hill run for 13 yds to the TENN 19 for a 1ST down
+0.4
Q4 7:35
Germie Bernard run for 9 yds to the TENN 10
0.0
Q4 7:07
Daniel Hill run for a loss of 1 yard to the TENN 11
0.0
Q4 6:27
Ty Simpson pass incomplete to Josh Cuevas
-0.1
Q4 6:19
Ty Simpson run for 3 yds to the TENN 8 for a 1ST down Tennessee Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Jeremiah Telander) to the TENN 4 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q4 5:49
Daniel Hill run for 4 yds for a TD (Conor Talty KICK)
+3.5
Q4 5:49
Conor Talty kickoff for 40 yds fair catch by Peyton Lewis at the TENN 0
0.0
Q4 5:35
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Dasaahn Brame for 10 yds to the TENN 35 for a 1ST down
-1.2
Q4 5:26
Joey Aguilar pass incomplete to Dasaahn Brame
0.0
Q4 5:05
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Braylon Staley for 20 yds to the ALA 45 for a 1ST down
+0.2
Q4 4:49
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Chris Brazzell II for 19 yds to the ALA 26 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q4 4:37
Joey Aguilar pass incomplete to Dasaahn Brame
-0.2
Q4 4:30
Aguilar, Joey pass incomplete to Brame, Dasaahn, PENALTY ALA pass interference (Mincey, Zavier) 11 yards to the ALA15, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN TENN.
0.0
Q4 4:20
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Chris Brazzell II for a loss of 4 yards to the ALA 19
0.0
Q4 3:56
Joey Aguilar pass incomplete to Braylon Staley
0.0
Q4 3:45
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Chris Brazzell II for 3 yds to the ALA 16
0.0
Q4 3:16
Timeout Tennessee, clock 03:16
0.0
Q4 3:16
Timeout Alabama, clock 03:16
0.0
Q4 3:09
Joey Aguilar pass incomplete to Braylon Staley
+0.1
Q4 3:07
Daniel Hill run for 3 yds to the ALA 19
+1.5
Q4 2:16
Daniel Hill run for no gain to the ALA 19
0.0
Q4 2:16
Timeout Tennessee, clock 02:16
0.0
Q4 2:10
Ty Simpson run for 5 yds to the ALA 24
0.0
Q4 2:10
Timeout Tennessee, clock 02:10
0.0
Q4 2:04
Blake Doud punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Boo Carter at the TENN 35
0.0
Q4 1:57
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Dasaahn Brame for 9 yds to the TENN 44
-1.4
Q4 1:51
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Dasaahn Brame for 19 yds to the ALA 37 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q4 1:43
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Peyton Lewis for 15 yds to the ALA 22 for a 1ST down
-0.2
Q4 1:36
Aguilar, Joey pass incomplete, PENALTY ALA holding (Jefferson, Justin) 10 yards to the ALA12, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN TENN.
-0.1
Q4 1:31
Aguilar, Joey pass incomplete to Brazzell II, Chris, PENALTY ALA pass interference (Jackson, Domani) 10 yards to the ALA2, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN TENN.
0.0
Q4 1:20
Peyton Lewis run for a loss of 3 yards to the ALA 5
0.0
Q4 1:08
Aguilar, Joey pass incomplete to Brazzell II, Chris, PENALTY ALA pass interference (Jackson, Domani) 3 yards to the ALA2, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN TENN.
0.0
Q4 0:50
Peyton Lewis run for 1 yd to the ALA 1
0.0
Q4 0:31
Tennessee Penalty, False Start (Shamurad Umarov) to the ALA 5
0.0
Q4 0:14
Joey Aguilar pass incomplete to Braylon Staley
0.0
Q4 0:10
Peyton Lewis run for 4 yds to the ALA 1
0.0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 9:46
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Braylon Staley for 2 yds for a TD (Max Gilbert KICK)
-16.2
TD · Q1 6:51
Ty Simpson pass complete to Isaiah Horton for 2 yds for a TD (Conor Talty KICK)
+9.6
TD · Q2 4:05
Jam Miller run for 1 yd for a TD (Conor Talty KICK)
+8.9