Try the model
OU

Oklahoma 6 at Texas 23

TEX
2025 · Week 7 · Oct 11, 2025 · Cotton Bowl
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · TEX
modelTEX aheadOU aheadconfidence bandkey playTEX scoreOU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGFGTDFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 6:06 · Grayson Miller punt for 23 yds, downed at the TEX 20
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+31.5+15.80−15.8−31.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 27Home team on offense−0.8Pregame prior+5.8Score differential−0.6Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q2 4:24: Mason Shipley 22 yd FG GOOD — TEX win probability +4.0 pts (now 55%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
  2. TD · Q3 7:49: Arch Manning pass complete to DeAndre Moore Jr. for 12 yds for a TD (Mason Shipley KICK) — TEX win probability +14.6 pts (now 70%) (top driver: TEX has the ball).
  3. FG · Q3 0:21: Mason Shipley 48 yd FG GOOD — TEX win probability +11.5 pts (now 82%) (top driver: TEX has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 13:15: Quintrevion Wisner run for 4 yds to the OU 40 — TEX win probability +6.3 pts (now 86%) (top driver: TEX has the ball).
  5. PUNT · Q4 9:54: Grayson Miller punt for 48 yds , Ryan Niblett returns for 75 yds for a TD (Mason Shipley KICK) — TEX win probability +10.0 pts (now 92%) (top driver: OU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TEX made the numbers' call on 4 of 7OU made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
  1. Q1 11:49OU 4th & 4 at TEX 23, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 41.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.8%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    41.8%−<0.1
    70% to make
    Punt
    41.4%−0.4
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:32TEX 4th & 24 at TEX 24, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.8%−0.5
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.3%
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:06OU 4th & 10 at TEX 43, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.3%−<0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    42.1%−0.2
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    42.3%
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:23TEX 4th & 10 at TEX 20, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.1%−0.3
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.4%
    average punt
  5. Q1 0:32TEX 4th & 25 at OU 37, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 55.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.1%−0.8
    7% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    55.9%
    40% to make
    Punt
    55.8%−0.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 11:45OU 4th & 1 at TEX 27, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 45.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    45.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    43.8%−1.4
    62% to make
    Punt
    40.5%−4.7
    average punt
  7. Q2 9:09OU 4th & 9 at TEX 23, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 45.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.7%−0.6
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    45.3%
    70% to make
    Punt
    40.9%−4.4
    average punt
  8. Q2 4:24TEX 4th & 3 at OU 3, down 6
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsKicked a field goal · 49.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.9%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    48.6%−1.2
    93% to make
    Punt
    41.8%−8.1
    average punt
  9. Q3 6:42OU 4th & 5 at OU 30, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.8%−0.5
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.3%
    average punt
  10. Q3 0:21TEX 4th & 5 at OU 30, up 4
    Close callKicked a field goal · 70.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.5%
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    70.1%−0.4
    56% to make
    Punt
    67.3%−3.2
    average punt
  11. Q4 11:33TEX 4th & 3 at OU 37, up 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.7 ptsKicked a field goal · 84.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.4%
    53% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    82.7%−2.7
    40% to make
    Punt
    82.3%−3.1
    average punt
  12. Q4 9:54OU 4th & 21 at OU 27, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.0%−4.3
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.3%
    average punt
  13. Q4 5:36OU 4th & 22 at TEX 37, down 14
    Close callWent for it · 5.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.2%−0.9
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    5.1%
    40% to make
    Punt
    4.4%−0.7
    average punt
  14. Q4 2:59TEX 4th & 5 at OU 21, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 97.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.0%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    97.0%
    74% to make
    Punt
    95.4%−1.6
    average punt
  15. Q4 1:38OU 4th & 1 at OU 48, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    1.5%−0.3
    average punt
  16. Q4 1:03OU 4th & 10 at TEX 45, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.6%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    1.5%−0.1
    25% to make
    Punt
    1.5%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TEX made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q3 7:49TEX Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
OUDrive 1FG
10 plays · 52 yds · 3:0843% → 43%
Q1 14:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
56.8%
John Mateer pass incomplete to Jaren KanakSimilar
Q1 14:45
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
56.8%
Tory Blaylock run for no gain to the OU 25Similar
Q1 14:30
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+23
56.8%
John Mateer pass complete to Isaiah Sategna III for 23 yds to the OU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+5
56.8%
John Mateer run for 5 yds to the TEX 47Similar
Q1 13:30
2ND & 5
OPP 47
+18
56.7%
John Mateer pass complete to Deion Burks for 18 yds to the TEX 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+4
56.6%
John Mateer pass complete to Tory Blaylock for 4 yds to the TEX 25Similar
Q1 12:30
2ND & 6
OPP 25
+2
56.6%
Tory Blaylock run for 2 yds to the TEX 23Similar
Q1 11:54
3RD & 4
OPP 23
0
56.6%
John Mateer pass incomplete to Isaiah Sategna IIISimilar
Q1 11:49
4TH & 4
OPP 23
+42
56.7%
Tate Sandell 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 2PUNT
9 plays · -1 yds · 2:5857% → 56%
Q1 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
56.7%
Arch Manning pass complete to Jordan Washington for 13 yds to the TEX 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-5
56.8%
Texas Penalty, False Start (Trevor Goosby) to the TEX 33Similar
Q1 11:00
1ST & 15
OWN 33
+5
56.6%
Oklahoma Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the TEX 38Similar
Q1 10:28
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-10
56.9%
Texas Penalty, Offensive Holding (Trevor Goosby) to the TEX 28Similar
Q1 10:00
1ST & 20
OWN 28
-4
56.6%
Quintrevion Wisner run for a loss of 4 yards to the TEX 24Similar
Q1 9:30
2ND & 24
OWN 24
+1
56.5%
Arch Manning pass complete to Quintrevion Wisner for 1 yd to the TEX 25Similar
Q1 9:00
3RD & 23
OWN 25
-1
56.0%
Arch Manning pass complete to Quintrevion Wisner for a loss of 1 yard to the TEX 24Similar
Q1 8:32
4TH & 24
OWN 24
+13
55.8%
Jack Bouwmeester punt for 43 yds , Isaiah Sategna III returns for 13 yds to the OU 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 3PUNT
8 plays · 11 yds · 2:2244% → 44%
Q1 8:28
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
56.0%
John Mateer pass incomplete to Isaiah Sategna IIISimilar
Q1 8:15
2ND & 10
OWN 46
0
56.1%
John Mateer pass complete to Xavier Robinson for no gain to the OU 46Similar
Q1 8:00
3RD & 10
OWN 46
+11
56.3%
John Mateer pass complete to Keontez Lewis for 11 yds to the TEX 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:30
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-1
55.7%
John Mateer run for a loss of 1 yard to the TEX 44Similar
Q1 7:00
2ND & 11
OPP 44
0
55.7%
John Mateer pass incomplete to Keontez LewisSimilar
Q1 7:00
3RD & 11
OPP 44
-5
56.0%
Oklahoma Penalty, False Start (Deion Burks) to the TEX 49Similar
Q1 6:29
3RD & 16
OPP 49
+6
56.3%
John Mateer pass complete to Jaren Kanak for 6 yds to the TEX 43Similar
Q1 6:06
4TH & 10
OPP 43
0
56.5%
Grayson Miller punt for 23 yds, downed at the TEX 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:3756% → 55%
Q1 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-2
55.9%
Quintrevion Wisner run for a loss of 2 yards to the TEX 18Similar
Q1 5:38
2ND & 12
OWN 18
0
55.7%
Arch Manning pass incomplete to Jordan WashingtonSimilar
Q1 5:32
3RD & 12
OWN 18
+2
55.3%
Arch Manning pass complete to Ryan Wingo for 2 yds to the TEX 20Similar
Q1 5:23
4TH & 10
OWN 20
0
55.1%
Jack Bouwmeester punt for 55 yds, fair catch by Isaiah Sategna III at the OU 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 5INT
5 plays · 12 yds · 1:2344% → 44%
Q1 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
56.3%
Deion Burks run for 1 yd to the OU 26Similar
Q1 4:30
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+2
56.3%
Jaydn Ott run for 2 yds to the OU 28Similar
Q1 4:00
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+9
56.4%
John Mateer pass complete to Isaiah Sategna III for 9 yds to the OU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:43
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
55.7%
John Mateer pass incomplete to Jaydn OttSimilar
Q1 3:37
2ND & 10
OWN 37
0
55.8%
John Mateer pass intercepted Malik Muhammad return for no gain to the TEX 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 6MISSED FG
8 plays · 21 yds · 2:5857% → 55%
Q1 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
56.7%
Quintrevion Wisner run for 4 yds to the TEX 46Similar
Q1 3:00
2ND & 6
OWN 46
+8
56.9%
Quintrevion Wisner run for 8 yds to the OU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:30
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+24
57.0%
Arch Manning pass complete to DeAndre Moore Jr. for 24 yds to the OU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:15
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-10
57.5%
Texas Penalty, Offensive Holding (Emmett Mosley V) to the OU 32Similar
Q1 2:00
1ST & 20
OPP 32
-5
57.3%
Quintrevion Wisner run for a loss of 5 yards to the OU 37Similar
Q1 1:30
2ND & 25
OPP 37
-5
56.2%
Arch Manning pass complete to Jack Endries for a loss of 5 yards to the OU 42Similar
Q1 0:50
3RD & 30
OPP 42
+5
55.5%
Arch Manning run for 5 yds to the OU 37Similar
Q1 0:32
4TH & 25
OPP 37
+55
54.6%
Mason Shipley 55 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 7FG
14 plays · 40 yds · 6:0945% → 51%
Q1 0:18
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
54.8%
Xavier Robinson run for 1 yd to the OU 38Similar
Q2 14:45
2ND & 9
OWN 38
+2
54.0%
John Mateer run for 2 yds to the OU 40Similar
Q2 14:30
3RD & 7
OWN 40
+13
54.3%
John Mateer pass complete to Carson Kent for 13 yds to the TEX 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:45
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+11
53.2%
Tory Blaylock run for 11 yds to the TEX 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:22
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
53.1%
John Mateer pass incomplete to Keontez LewisSimilar
Q2 13:00
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+8
53.1%
JaVonnie Gibson pass complete to Deion Burks for 8 yds to the TEX 28Similar
Q2 12:32
3RD & 2
OPP 28
+1
53.4%
John Mateer run for 1 yd to the TEX 27Similar
Q2 11:45
4TH & 1
OPP 27
+3
54.1%
Xavier Robinson run for 3 yds to the TEX 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:30
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-5
52.5%
John Mateer sacked by Colin Simmons for a loss of 5 yards to the TEX 29Similar
Q2 11:00
2ND & 15
OPP 29
+5
53.0%
John Mateer pass complete to Kaden Helms for 5 yds to the TEX 24Similar
Q2 9:30
3RD & 10
OPP 24
+1
52.7%
John Mateer run for 1 yd to the TEX 23Similar
Q2 9:09
4TH & 9
OPP 23
+41
49.1%
Tate Sandell 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 8FG
14 plays · 75 yds · 4:2152% → 55%
Q2 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+4
51.6%
Arch Manning pass complete to Ryan Wingo for 4 yds to the TEX 26Similar
Q2 8:15
2ND & 6
OWN 26
+37
51.8%
Quintrevion Wisner run for 37 yds to the OU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-1
53.0%
Quintrevion Wisner run for a loss of 1 yard to the OU 38Similar
Q2 7:30
2ND & 11
OPP 38
+1
52.6%
Christian Clark run for 1 yd to the OU 37Similar
Q2 7:00
3RD & 10
OPP 37
+14
52.1%
Arch Manning pass complete to DeAndre Moore Jr. for 14 yds to the OU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:19
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
54.0%
Arch Manning pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:00
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+9
53.9%
Arch Manning pass complete to Jack Endries for 9 yds to the OU 14Similar
Q2 5:30
3RD & 1
OPP 14
+8
52.4%
Arch Manning pass complete to Parker Livingstone for 8 yds to the OU 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
53.8%
Quintrevion Wisner run for 3 yds to the OU 3Similar
Q2 4:35
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
52.7%
Arch Manning pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:28
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
0
51.0%
Arch Manning pass incomplete to Parker LivingstoneSimilar
Q2 4:24
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+22
55.1%
Mason Shipley 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 9INT
12 plays · 45 yds · 4:1347% → 54%
Q2 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
52.8%
John Mateer pass complete to Keontez Lewis for 5 yds to the OU 30Similar
Q2 3:30
2ND & 5
OWN 30
-1
51.9%
Tory Blaylock run for a loss of 1 yard to the OU 29Similar
Q2 3:00
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+10
52.7%
John Mateer pass complete to Deion Burks for 10 yds to the OU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:31
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+11
50.3%
Tory Blaylock run for 11 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
50
-5
48.1%
Oklahoma Penalty, False Start (Febechi Nwaiwu) to the OU 45Similar
Q2 1:45
1ST & 15
OWN 45
+10
49.9%
John Mateer run for 10 yds to the TEX 45Similar
Q2 1:30
2ND & 5
OPP 45
+7
47.3%
John Mateer pass complete to Deion Burks for 7 yds to the TEX 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
46.5%
Tory Blaylock run for no gain to the TEX 38Similar
Q2 0:45
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+8
46.5%
John Mateer pass complete to Isaiah Sategna III for 8 yds to the TEX 30Similar
Q2 0:02
3RD & 2
OPP 30
0
45.7%
John Mateer pass intercepted, touchback. Malik Muhammad return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 10END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0051% → 51%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
51.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the TEX 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 11TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 7:0652% → 70%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
51.7%
Arch Manning pass complete to Quintrevion Wisner for 2 yds to the TEX 27Similar
Q3 14:15
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+7
51.2%
Quintrevion Wisner run for 7 yds to the TEX 34Similar
Q3 13:45
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+2
52.1%
Quintrevion Wisner run for 2 yds to the TEX 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-6
51.8%
Arch Manning sacked by R Mason Thomas for a loss of 6 yards to the TEX 30Similar
Q3 12:30
2ND & 16
OWN 30
+8
50.1%
Arch Manning pass complete to Emmett Mosley V for 8 yds to the TEX 38Similar
Q3 11:50
3RD & 8
OWN 38
+13
50.3%
Arch Manning pass complete to Quintrevion Wisner for 13 yds to the OU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:30
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+9
54.0%
Quintrevion Wisner run for 9 yds to the OU 40Similar
Q3 11:00
2ND & 1
OPP 40
+9
54.3%
Quintrevion Wisner run for 9 yds to the OU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:30
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+5
55.5%
James Simon run for 5 yds to the OU 26Similar
Q3 10:00
2ND & 5
OPP 26
+1
55.6%
James Simon run for 1 yd to the OU 25Similar
Q3 9:30
2ND & 9
OPP 25
+11
55.5%
Arch Manning pass complete to Ryan Wingo for 11 yds to the OU 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:00
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+3
55.5%
Quintrevion Wisner run for 3 yds to the OU 11Similar
Q3 8:30
2ND & 7
OPP 11
-1
55.5%
Arch Manning pass complete to James Simon for a loss of 1 yard to the OU 12Similar
Q3 7:49
3RD & 8
OPP 12
+12
70.0%
Arch Manning pass complete to DeAndre Moore Jr. for 12 yds for a TD (Mason Shipley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:5834% → 32%
Q3 7:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
65.8%
John Mateer pass incomplete to Jaren KanakSimilar
Q3 7:15
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
66.1%
John Mateer run for 5 yds to the OU 30Similar
Q3 6:54
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
66.2%
John Mateer pass incomplete to Isaiah Sategna IIISimilar
Q3 6:42
4TH & 5
OWN 30
+65
68.0%
Grayson Miller punt for 59 yds, downed at the TEX 11 Texas Penalty, Personal Foul (Jelani McDonald) to the TEX 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 13FG
13 plays · 65 yds · 5:5467% → 82%
Q3 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+3
67.3%
Quintrevion Wisner run for 3 yds to the TEX 8Similar
Q3 5:56
2ND & 7
OWN 8
0
67.2%
Arch Manning pass incomplete to Emmett Mosley VSimilar
Q3 5:30
3RD & 7
OWN 8
+21
65.9%
Arch Manning pass complete to Parker Livingstone for 21 yds to the TEX 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+3
68.0%
Quintrevion Wisner run for 3 yds to the TEX 32Similar
Q3 4:42
2ND & 7
OWN 32
0
68.1%
Arch Manning pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:00
3RD & 7
OWN 32
+19
68.0%
Arch Manning pass complete to Quintrevion Wisner for 19 yds to the OU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:45
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+5
72.1%
Quintrevion Wisner run for 5 yds to the OU 44Similar
Q3 3:15
2ND & 5
OPP 44
+3
72.4%
Quintrevion Wisner run for 3 yds to the OU 41Similar
Q3 3:00
3RD & 2
OPP 41
+6
71.9%
Arch Manning run for 6 yds to the OU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-3
73.9%
Jerrick Gibson run for a loss of 3 yards to the OU 38Similar
Q3 1:30
2ND & 13
OPP 38
-6
71.8%
Arch Manning pass complete to Ryan Niblett for a loss of 6 yards to the OU 44Similar
Q3 0:45
3RD & 19
OPP 44
+14
70.1%
Arch Manning pass complete to Ryan Wingo for 14 yds to the OU 30Similar
Q3 0:21
4TH & 5
OPP 30
+48
81.6%
Mason Shipley 48 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 14INT
6 plays · 19 yds · 1:3224% → 21%
Q3 0:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+21
76.3%
John Mateer pass complete to Deion Burks for 21 yds to the OU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+5
73.6%
John Mateer run for 5 yds to the TEX 49Similar
Q4 14:30
2ND & 5
OPP 49
+3
72.6%
Xavier Robinson run for 3 yds to the TEX 46Similar
Q4 14:00
3RD & 2
OPP 46
-10
75.6%
Oklahoma Penalty, Offensive Holding (Carson Kent) to the OU 44Similar
Q4 13:38
3RD & 12
OWN 44
-11
79.3%
John Mateer pass intercepted Graceson Littleton return for 11 yds to the OU 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 15MISSED FG
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:4286% → 84%
Q4 13:15
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+4
85.7%
Quintrevion Wisner run for 4 yds to the OU 40Similar
Q4 12:45
2ND & 6
OPP 40
-1
86.1%
James Simon run for a loss of 1 yard to the OU 41Similar
Q4 12:00
3RD & 7
OPP 41
+4
85.5%
Arch Manning pass complete to Ryan Wingo for 4 yds to the OU 37Similar
Q4 11:33
4TH & 3
OPP 37
+56
83.7%
Mason Shipley 56 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 16PUNT RETURN TD
5 plays · -11 yds · 1:3122% → 8%
Q4 11:25
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-8
78.1%
Tory Blaylock run for 2 yds to the OU 40 Oklahoma Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the OU 30Similar
Q4 11:00
1ST & 18
OWN 30
-13
80.0%
Tory Blaylock run for a loss of 13 yards to the OU 17 Tory Blaylock fumbled, recovered by OUSimilar
Q4 10:30
2ND & 31
OWN 17
+10
80.8%
Tory Blaylock run for 10 yds to the OU 27Similar
Q4 10:10
3RD & 21
OWN 27
0
81.9%
John Mateer pass incomplete to Isaiah Sategna IIISimilar
Q4 9:54
4TH & 21
OWN 27
+75
91.9%
Grayson Miller punt for 48 yds , Ryan Niblett returns for 75 yds for a TD (Mason Shipley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 17DOWNS
10 plays · 28 yds · 4:049% → 6%
Q4 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+17
90.7%
John Mateer pass complete to JaVonnie Gibson for 17 yds to the TEX 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:15
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+12
90.3%
John Mateer pass complete to Xavier Robinson for 12 yds to the TEX 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:30
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+9
90.7%
John Mateer run for 9 yds to the TEX 27Similar
Q4 8:00
2ND & 1
OPP 27
-2
89.6%
John Mateer pass complete to Jer'Michael Carter for a loss of 2 yards to the TEX 29Similar
Q4 7:15
3RD & 3
OPP 29
+4
91.1%
Tory Blaylock run for 4 yds to the TEX 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:01
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
90.4%
John Mateer pass incomplete to Isaiah Sategna IIISimilar
Q4 6:45
2ND & 10
OPP 25
-10
91.1%
John Mateer sacked by Michael Taaffe for a loss of 10 yards to the TEX 35Similar
Q4 6:00
3RD & 20
OPP 35
-2
92.8%
John Mateer sacked by Colin Simmons for a loss of 2 yards to the TEX 37Similar
Q4 5:36
4TH & 22
OPP 37
0
93.7%
John Mateer pass incomplete to Jaren KanakSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 18FG
10 plays · 42 yds · 2:1697% → 99%
Q4 5:15
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
96.6%
Quintrevion Wisner run for 5 yds to the TEX 42Similar
Q4 5:00
2ND & 5
OWN 42
+3
97.0%
Quintrevion Wisner run for 3 yds to the TEX 45Similar
Q4 4:15
3RD & 2
OWN 45
+29
97.5%
Arch Manning run for 29 yds to the OU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+3
97.6%
Quintrevion Wisner run for 3 yds to the OU 23Similar
Q4 3:49
2ND & 7
OPP 23
-5
98.3%
Quintrevion Wisner run for a loss of 5 yards to the OU 28Similar
Q4 3:30
3RD & 12
OPP 28
+7
98.4%
Ryan Niblett run for 7 yds to the OU 21Similar
Q4 2:59
4TH & 5
OPP 21
+39
98.8%
Mason Shipley 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 19DOWNS
11 plays · 27 yds · 1:421% → 1%
Q4 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
99.3%
John Mateer pass complete to Jaren Kanak for 9 yds to the OU 34Similar
Q4 2:25
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+5
99.1%
John Mateer pass complete to Jaren Kanak for 5 yds to the OU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:18
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
99.3%
John Mateer pass incomplete to Tory BlaylockSimilar
Q4 2:00
2ND & 10
OWN 39
-12
99.2%
John Mateer sacked by Brad Spence and Colin Simmons for a loss of 12 yards to the OU 27Similar
Q4 1:45
3RD & 22
OWN 27
+21
99.3%
John Mateer pass complete to Isaiah Sategna III for 21 yds to the OU 48Similar
Q4 1:38
4TH & 1
OWN 48
+7
99.1%
Tory Blaylock run for 7 yds to the TEX 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:22
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
99.2%
John Mateer pass incomplete to Jer'Michael CarterSimilar
Q4 1:17
2ND & 10
OPP 45
0
99.2%
John Mateer pass incomplete to JaVonnie GibsonSimilar
Q4 1:12
3RD & 10
OPP 45
0
99.2%
John Mateer pass incomplete to Isaiah Sategna IIISimilar
Q4 1:03
4TH & 10
OPP 45
-3
99.3%
John Mateer sacked by Brad Spence and Lance Jackson for a loss of 3 yards to the TEX 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 20END OF GAME
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:3099% → 99%
Q4 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
99.2%
TEAM run for no gain to the TEX 48Similar
Q4 0:20
2ND & 10
OWN 48
-1
99.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the TEX 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 7:49
Arch Manning pass complete to DeAndre Moore Jr. for 12 yds for a TD (Mason Shipley KICK)
+14.6
FG · Q3 0:21
Mason Shipley 48 yd FG GOOD
+11.5
PUNT · Q4 9:54
Grayson Miller punt for 48 yds , Ryan Niblett returns for 75 yds for a TD (Mason Shipley KICK)
+10
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com