OU
Oklahoma 6 at Texas 23
TEX2025 · Week 7 · Oct 11, 2025 · Cotton Bowl
Speed4x
Win probability · TEX
modelTEX aheadOU aheadconfidence bandkey play
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OU · Drive 1FG · 10 plays · 52 yds
Q1 15:00
Will Stone kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
51.0%
0.0
Q1 14:57
John Mateer pass incomplete to Jaren Kanak
48.1%
-2.9
Q1 14:45
Tory Blaylock run for no gain to the OU 25
47.5%
-0.6
Q1 14:30
John Mateer pass complete to Isaiah Sategna III for 23 yds to the OU 48 for a 1ST down
47.5%
0.0
Q1 14:00
John Mateer run for 5 yds to the TEX 47
45.3%
-2.2
Q1 13:30
John Mateer pass complete to Deion Burks for 18 yds to the TEX 29 for a 1ST down
45.0%
-0.3
Q1 13:00
John Mateer pass complete to Tory Blaylock for 4 yds to the TEX 25
44.9%
-0.1
Q1 12:30
Tory Blaylock run for 2 yds to the TEX 23
44.9%
0.0
Q1 11:54
John Mateer pass incomplete to Isaiah Sategna III
44.9%
0.0
Q1 11:49
Tate Sandell 42 yd FG GOOD
41.1%
-3.8
TEX · Drive 2PUNT · 9 plays · -1 yds
Q1 11:49
Tate Sandell kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
42.4%
+1.3
Q1 11:30
Arch Manning pass complete to Jordan Washington for 13 yds to the TEX 38 for a 1ST down
48.3%
+5.9
Q1 11:15
Texas Penalty, False Start (Trevor Goosby) to the TEX 33
48.7%
+0.4
Q1 11:00
Oklahoma Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the TEX 38
48.3%
-0.4
Q1 10:28
Texas Penalty, Offensive Holding (Trevor Goosby) to the TEX 28
48.7%
+0.4
Q1 10:00
Quintrevion Wisner run for a loss of 4 yards to the TEX 24
48.3%
-0.4
Q1 9:30
Arch Manning pass complete to Quintrevion Wisner for 1 yd to the TEX 25
48.4%
+0.1
Q1 9:00
Arch Manning pass complete to Quintrevion Wisner for a loss of 1 yard to the TEX 24
48.2%
-0.2
Q1 8:32
Jack Bouwmeester punt for 43 yds , Isaiah Sategna III returns for 13 yds to the OU 46
48.2%
-0.1
OU · Drive 3PUNT · 8 plays · 11 yds
Q1 8:28
John Mateer pass incomplete to Isaiah Sategna III
40.4%
-7.7
Q1 8:15
John Mateer pass complete to Xavier Robinson for no gain to the OU 46
40.4%
0.0
Q1 8:00
John Mateer pass complete to Keontez Lewis for 11 yds to the TEX 43 for a 1ST down
40.4%
0.0
Q1 7:30
John Mateer run for a loss of 1 yard to the TEX 44
40.3%
-0.1
Q1 7:00
John Mateer pass incomplete to Keontez Lewis
40.4%
+0.1
Q1 7:00
Oklahoma Penalty, False Start (Deion Burks) to the TEX 49
40.4%
0.0
Q1 6:29
John Mateer pass complete to Jaren Kanak for 6 yds to the TEX 43
40.1%
-0.3
Q1 6:06
Grayson Miller punt for 23 yds, downed at the TEX 20
40.8%
+0.6
TEX · Drive 4PUNT · 4 plays · 0 yds
Q1 6:00
Quintrevion Wisner run for a loss of 2 yards to the TEX 18
45.8%
+5.1
Q1 5:38
Arch Manning pass incomplete to Jordan Washington
45.8%
0.0
Q1 5:32
Arch Manning pass complete to Ryan Wingo for 2 yds to the TEX 20
45.8%
0.0
Q1 5:23
Jack Bouwmeester punt for 55 yds, fair catch by Isaiah Sategna III at the OU 25
45.8%
0.0
OU · Drive 5INT · 5 plays · 12 yds
Q1 5:00
Deion Burks run for 1 yd to the OU 26
42.0%
-3.8
Q1 4:30
Jaydn Ott run for 2 yds to the OU 28
42.0%
0.0
Q1 4:00
John Mateer pass complete to Isaiah Sategna III for 9 yds to the OU 37 for a 1ST down
42.0%
0.0
Q1 3:43
John Mateer pass incomplete to Jaydn Ott
41.8%
-0.2
Q1 3:37
John Mateer pass intercepted Malik Muhammad return for no gain to the TEX 42
41.8%
0.0
TEX · Drive 6MISSED FG · 8 plays · 21 yds
Q1 3:30
Quintrevion Wisner run for 4 yds to the TEX 46
46.5%
+4.7
Q1 3:00
Quintrevion Wisner run for 8 yds to the OU 46 for a 1ST down
46.5%
0.0
Q1 2:30
Arch Manning pass complete to DeAndre Moore Jr. for 24 yds to the OU 22 for a 1ST down
47.8%
+1.3
Q1 2:15
Texas Penalty, Offensive Holding (Emmett Mosley V) to the OU 32
48.7%
+1.0
Q1 2:00
Quintrevion Wisner run for a loss of 5 yards to the OU 37
48.7%
0.0
Q1 1:30
Arch Manning pass complete to Jack Endries for a loss of 5 yards to the OU 42
48.7%
0.0
Q1 0:50
Arch Manning run for 5 yds to the OU 37
48.4%
-0.3
Q1 0:32
Mason Shipley 55 yd FG MISSED
48.0%
-0.4
OU · Drive 7FG · 14 plays · 40 yds
Q1 0:18
Xavier Robinson run for 1 yd to the OU 38
41.6%
-6.4
Q2 14:45
John Mateer run for 2 yds to the OU 40
39.3%
-2.4
Q2 14:30
John Mateer pass complete to Carson Kent for 13 yds to the TEX 47 for a 1ST down
39.3%
0.0
Q2 13:45
Tory Blaylock run for 11 yds to the TEX 36 for a 1ST down
38.2%
-1.1
Q2 13:22
John Mateer pass incomplete to Keontez Lewis
38.1%
-0.1
Q2 13:00
JaVonnie Gibson pass complete to Deion Burks for 8 yds to the TEX 28
38.1%
0.0
Q2 12:43
Timeout Oklahoma, clock 12:43
38.0%
-0.1
Q2 12:32
John Mateer run for 1 yd to the TEX 27
38.0%
0.0
Q2 11:45
Xavier Robinson run for 3 yds to the TEX 24 for a 1ST down
38.8%
+0.8
Q2 11:30
John Mateer sacked by Colin Simmons for a loss of 5 yards to the TEX 29
38.1%
-0.7
Q2 11:00
John Mateer pass complete to Kaden Helms for 5 yds to the TEX 24
38.2%
+0.2
Q2 9:57
Timeout Oklahoma, clock 09:57
38.6%
+0.4
Q2 9:30
John Mateer run for 1 yd to the TEX 23
38.6%
0.0
Q2 9:09
Tate Sandell 41 yd FG GOOD
30.2%
-8.5
TEX · Drive 8FG · 14 plays · 75 yds
Q2 9:09
Tate Sandell kickoff for 65 yds , Ryan Niblett return for 22 yds to the TEX 22
31.0%
+0.9
Q2 8:45
Arch Manning pass complete to Ryan Wingo for 4 yds to the TEX 26
35.9%
+4.8
Q2 8:15
Quintrevion Wisner run for 37 yds to the OU 37 for a 1ST down
35.9%
0.0
Q2 8:00
Quintrevion Wisner run for a loss of 1 yard to the OU 38
37.3%
+1.4
Q2 7:30
Christian Clark run for 1 yd to the OU 37
37.3%
0.0
Q2 7:00
Arch Manning pass complete to DeAndre Moore Jr. for 14 yds to the OU 23 for a 1ST down
37.1%
-0.2
Q2 6:19
Arch Manning pass incomplete
37.3%
+0.2
Q2 6:00
Arch Manning pass complete to Jack Endries for 9 yds to the OU 14
37.3%
0.0
Q2 5:30
Arch Manning pass complete to Parker Livingstone for 8 yds to the OU 6 for a 1ST down
37.1%
-0.1
Q2 5:00
Quintrevion Wisner run for 3 yds to the OU 3
37.4%
+0.2
Q2 4:39
Timeout Texas, clock 04:39
37.7%
+0.4
Q2 4:35
Arch Manning pass incomplete
37.7%
0.0
Q2 4:28
Arch Manning pass incomplete to Parker Livingstone
37.5%
-0.2
Q2 4:24
Mason Shipley 22 yd FG GOOD
43.9%
+6.4
OU · Drive 9INT · 12 plays · 45 yds
Q2 4:24
Will Stone kickoff for 57 yds for a touchback
42.0%
-1.9
Q2 4:15
John Mateer pass complete to Keontez Lewis for 5 yds to the OU 30
37.1%
-5.0
Q2 3:30
Tory Blaylock run for a loss of 1 yard to the OU 29
37.1%
0.0
Q2 3:00
John Mateer pass complete to Deion Burks for 10 yds to the OU 39 for a 1ST down
37.1%
0.0
Q2 2:31
Tory Blaylock run for 11 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down
36.4%
-0.6
Q2 2:00
Oklahoma Penalty, False Start (Febechi Nwaiwu) to the OU 45
35.3%
-1.1
Q2 1:45
John Mateer run for 10 yds to the TEX 45
35.5%
+0.2
Q2 1:30
John Mateer pass complete to Deion Burks for 7 yds to the TEX 38 for a 1ST down
34.2%
-1.3
Q2 1:00
Tory Blaylock run for no gain to the TEX 38
34.1%
-0.1
Q2 0:45
John Mateer pass complete to Isaiah Sategna III for 8 yds to the TEX 30
34.1%
0.0
Q2 0:10
Timeout Oklahoma, clock 00:10
33.7%
-0.3
Q2 0:02
John Mateer pass intercepted, touchback. Malik Muhammad return for no gain
33.7%
0.0
TEX · Drive 10END OF HALF · 1 play · -1 yds
Q2 0:00
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the TEX 19
41.7%
+8.0
TEX · Drive 11TD · 15 plays · 75 yds
Q3 15:00
Tate Sandell kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
37.3%
-4.4
Q3 14:55
Arch Manning pass complete to Quintrevion Wisner for 2 yds to the TEX 27
41.8%
+4.5
Q3 14:15
Quintrevion Wisner run for 7 yds to the TEX 34
41.8%
0.0
Q3 13:45
Quintrevion Wisner run for 2 yds to the TEX 36 for a 1ST down
41.8%
0.0
Q3 13:00
Arch Manning sacked by R Mason Thomas for a loss of 6 yards to the TEX 30
41.8%
+0.1
Q3 12:30
Arch Manning pass complete to Emmett Mosley V for 8 yds to the TEX 38
41.8%
0.0
Q3 11:50
Arch Manning pass complete to Quintrevion Wisner for 13 yds to the OU 49 for a 1ST down
42.0%
+0.1
Q3 11:30
Quintrevion Wisner run for 9 yds to the OU 40
43.7%
+1.7
Q3 11:00
Quintrevion Wisner run for 9 yds to the OU 31 for a 1ST down
44.7%
+1.0
Q3 10:30
James Simon run for 5 yds to the OU 26
44.7%
0.0
Q3 10:00
James Simon run for 1 yd to the OU 25
45.0%
+0.3
Q3 9:30
Arch Manning pass complete to Ryan Wingo for 11 yds to the OU 14 for a 1ST down
45.0%
0.0
Q3 9:00
Quintrevion Wisner run for 3 yds to the OU 11
45.0%
0.0
Q3 8:30
Arch Manning pass complete to James Simon for a loss of 1 yard to the OU 12
45.0%
0.0
Q3 7:49
Arch Manning pass complete to DeAndre Moore Jr. for 12 yds for a TD (Mason Shipley KICK)
65.5%
+20.5
OU · Drive 12PUNT · 5 plays · 5 yds
Q3 7:49
Will Stone kickoff for 59 yds for a touchback
64.2%
-1.3
Q3 7:40
John Mateer pass incomplete to Jaren Kanak
59.0%
-5.2
Q3 7:15
John Mateer run for 5 yds to the OU 30
59.0%
0.0
Q3 6:54
John Mateer pass incomplete to Isaiah Sategna III
59.0%
0.0
Q3 6:42
Grayson Miller punt for 59 yds, downed at the TEX 11 Texas Penalty, Personal Foul (Jelani McDonald) to the TEX 5
59.0%
0.0
TEX · Drive 13FG · 13 plays · 65 yds
Q3 6:15
Quintrevion Wisner run for 3 yds to the TEX 8
64.2%
+5.2
Q3 5:56
Arch Manning pass incomplete to Emmett Mosley V
64.2%
0.0
Q3 5:30
Arch Manning pass complete to Parker Livingstone for 21 yds to the TEX 29 for a 1ST down
64.2%
0.0
Q3 5:00
Quintrevion Wisner run for 3 yds to the TEX 32
64.1%
0.0
Q3 4:42
Arch Manning pass incomplete
64.2%
0.0
Q3 4:00
Arch Manning pass complete to Quintrevion Wisner for 19 yds to the OU 49 for a 1ST down
64.1%
-0.1
Q3 3:45
Quintrevion Wisner run for 5 yds to the OU 44
65.3%
+1.2
Q3 3:15
Quintrevion Wisner run for 3 yds to the OU 41
66.5%
+1.2
Q3 3:00
Arch Manning run for 6 yds to the OU 35 for a 1ST down
66.6%
+0.1
Q3 2:00
Jerrick Gibson run for a loss of 3 yards to the OU 38
66.9%
+0.2
Q3 1:30
Arch Manning pass complete to Ryan Niblett for a loss of 6 yards to the OU 44
66.9%
0.0
Q3 0:45
Arch Manning pass complete to Ryan Wingo for 14 yds to the OU 30
66.3%
-0.6
Q3 0:21
Mason Shipley 48 yd FG GOOD
76.4%
+10.1
OU · Drive 14INT · 6 plays · 19 yds
Q3 0:21
Will Stone kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
75.5%
-0.9
Q3 0:10
John Mateer pass complete to Deion Burks for 21 yds to the OU 46 for a 1ST down
69.1%
-6.4
Q4 14:45
John Mateer run for 5 yds to the TEX 49
70.9%
+1.8
Q4 14:30
Xavier Robinson run for 3 yds to the TEX 46
70.4%
-0.5
Q4 14:00
Oklahoma Penalty, Offensive Holding (Carson Kent) to the OU 44
70.1%
-0.3
Q4 13:38
John Mateer pass intercepted Graceson Littleton return for 11 yds to the OU 44
70.9%
+0.8
TEX · Drive 15MISSED FG · 5 plays · 7 yds
Q4 13:15
Quintrevion Wisner run for 4 yds to the OU 40
78.1%
+7.2
Q4 12:45
James Simon run for a loss of 1 yard to the OU 41
78.5%
+0.4
Q4 12:00
Arch Manning pass complete to Ryan Wingo for 4 yds to the OU 37
78.3%
-0.2
Q4 11:38
Timeout Texas, clock 11:38
78.2%
-0.1
Q4 11:33
Mason Shipley 56 yd FG MISSED
78.2%
0.0
OU · Drive 16PUNT RETURN TD · 5 plays · -11 yds
Q4 11:25
Tory Blaylock run for 2 yds to the OU 40 Oklahoma Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the OU 30
73.1%
-5.0
Q4 11:00
Tory Blaylock run for a loss of 13 yards to the OU 17 Tory Blaylock fumbled, recovered by OU
73.1%
0.0
Q4 10:30
Tory Blaylock run for 10 yds to the OU 27
73.1%
0.0
Q4 10:10
John Mateer pass incomplete to Isaiah Sategna III
73.1%
0.0
Q4 9:54
Grayson Miller punt for 48 yds , Ryan Niblett returns for 75 yds for a TD (Mason Shipley KICK)
85.4%
+12.3
OU · Drive 17DOWNS · 10 plays · 28 yds
Q4 9:54
Will Stone kickoff for 59 yds
87.2%
+1.8
Q4 9:40
John Mateer pass complete to JaVonnie Gibson for 17 yds to the TEX 48 for a 1ST down
85.4%
-1.8
Q4 9:15
John Mateer pass complete to Xavier Robinson for 12 yds to the TEX 36 for a 1ST down
85.4%
0.0
Q4 8:30
John Mateer run for 9 yds to the TEX 27
85.8%
+0.4
Q4 8:00
John Mateer pass complete to Jer'Michael Carter for a loss of 2 yards to the TEX 29
85.8%
0.0
Q4 7:15
Tory Blaylock run for 4 yds to the TEX 25 for a 1ST down
86.1%
+0.2
Q4 7:01
John Mateer pass incomplete to Isaiah Sategna III
86.1%
0.0
Q4 6:45
John Mateer sacked by Michael Taaffe for a loss of 10 yards to the TEX 35
86.1%
0.0
Q4 6:00
John Mateer sacked by Colin Simmons for a loss of 2 yards to the TEX 37
86.0%
0.0
Q4 5:36
John Mateer pass incomplete to Jaren Kanak
86.0%
0.0
TEX · Drive 18FG · 10 plays · 42 yds
Q4 5:15
Quintrevion Wisner run for 5 yds to the TEX 42
87.2%
+1.2
Q4 5:00
Quintrevion Wisner run for 3 yds to the TEX 45
87.3%
+0.1
Q4 4:48
Timeout Oklahoma, clock 04:48
88.7%
+1.4
Q4 4:15
Arch Manning run for 29 yds to the OU 26 for a 1ST down
88.7%
0.0
Q4 4:00
Quintrevion Wisner run for 3 yds to the OU 23
88.7%
0.0
Q4 3:54
Timeout Oklahoma, clock 03:54
88.7%
0.0
Q4 3:49
Quintrevion Wisner run for a loss of 5 yards to the OU 28
88.7%
0.0
Q4 3:49
Timeout Oklahoma, clock 03:49
88.7%
0.0
Q4 3:30
Ryan Niblett run for 7 yds to the OU 21
88.7%
0.0
Q4 2:59
Mason Shipley 39 yd FG GOOD
90.7%
+2.1
OU · Drive 19DOWNS · 11 plays · 27 yds
Q4 2:59
Will Stone kickoff for 60 yds for a touchback
90.7%
0.0
Q4 2:45
John Mateer pass complete to Jaren Kanak for 9 yds to the OU 34
89.8%
-0.9
Q4 2:25
John Mateer pass complete to Jaren Kanak for 5 yds to the OU 39 for a 1ST down
89.8%
0.0
Q4 2:18
John Mateer pass incomplete to Tory Blaylock
89.8%
0.0
Q4 2:00
John Mateer sacked by Brad Spence and Colin Simmons for a loss of 12 yards to the OU 27
89.7%
-0.2
Q4 1:45
John Mateer pass complete to Isaiah Sategna III for 21 yds to the OU 48
90.1%
+0.4
Q4 1:38
Tory Blaylock run for 7 yds to the TEX 45 for a 1ST down
89.9%
-0.1
Q4 1:22
John Mateer pass incomplete to Jer'Michael Carter
89.9%
0.0
Q4 1:17
John Mateer pass incomplete to JaVonnie Gibson
89.9%
0.0
Q4 1:12
John Mateer pass incomplete to Isaiah Sategna III
89.9%
0.0
Q4 1:03
John Mateer sacked by Brad Spence and Lance Jackson for a loss of 3 yards to the TEX 48
89.9%
0.0
TEX · Drive 20END OF GAME · 2 plays · -1 yds
Q4 0:50
TEAM run for no gain to the TEX 48
91.1%
+1.2
Q4 0:20
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the TEX 47
91.3%
+0.2
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 7:49
Arch Manning pass complete to DeAndre Moore Jr. for 12 yds for a TD (Mason Shipley KICK)
+20.5
PUNT · Q4 9:54
Grayson Miller punt for 48 yds , Ryan Niblett returns for 75 yds for a TD (Mason Shipley KICK)
+12.3
FG · Q3 0:21
Mason Shipley 48 yd FG GOOD
+10.1