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ARK

Arkansas 31 at Tennessee 34

TENN
2025 · Week 7 · Oct 11, 2025 · Neyland Stadium
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Win probability · TENN
modelTENN aheadARK aheadconfidence bandkey playTENN scoreARK score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGFGFGTDTDFGFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 4:51 · Jackson Ross punt for 48 yds for a touchback
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+29.0+14.50−14.5−29.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 176Pregame prior+2.2Home team on offense+26.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+18.9Garbage-time factor+14.2Score differential+3.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+5.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 4:36: Mike Washington Jr. run for 1 yd for a TD (Scott Starzyk KICK) — ARK win probability +10.0 pts (now 40%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 2:11: Peyton Lewis run for 2 yds for a TD (Max Gilbert KICK) — TENN win probability +10.8 pts (now 86%) (top driver: TENN has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 13:14: Peyton Lewis run for 3 yds for a TD (Max Gilbert KICK) — TENN win probability +11.6 pts (now 99%) (top driver: TENN has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 8:17: Timeout Tennessee, clock 08:17 — TENN win probability +7.9 pts (now 97%) (top driver: TENN has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 2:55: Taylen Green pass complete to Kam Shanks for 12 yds for a TD (Scott Starzyk KICK) — ARK win probability +27.6 pts (now 33%) (top driver: Defense has -5 timeouts left).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TENN made the numbers' call on 5 of 7ARK made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 13:15ARK 4th & 1 at ARK 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 24.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    24.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    24.4%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:04TENN 4th & 6 at ARK 45, tied
    Close callPunted · 73.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.0%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    73.7%−0.3
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    74.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 0:20ARK 4th & 4 at TENN 10, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 28.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.8%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    28.6%−0.1
    88% to make
    Punt
    26.6%−2.1
    average punt
  4. Q2 10:36TENN 4th & 9 at ARK 18, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 69.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.7%−0.6
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    69.2%
    79% to make
    Punt
    65.5%−3.8
    average punt
  5. Q2 0:54ARK 4th & 9 at ARK 42, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.8%−0.9
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.7%
    average punt
  6. Q2 0:01TENN 4th & 12 at TENN 48, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.6%−1.5
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.1%
    average punt
  7. Q3 11:50TENN 4th & 25 at ARK 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 65.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.3%−3.3
    7% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    64.6%
    51% to make
    Punt
    63.2%−1.4
    average punt
  8. Q3 8:37TENN 4th & 12 at TENN 12, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.7%−3.1
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.9%
    average punt
  9. Q3 4:49TENN 4th & 6 at TENN 30, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.8%−0.7
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.5%
    average punt
  10. Q3 4:01ARK 4th & 8 at ARK 32, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.2%−2.4
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.6%
    average punt
  11. Q4 4:51TENN 4th & 7 at ARK 48, up 10
    Close callPunted · 92.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.1%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.1%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TENN made the numbers' call on 4 of 4ARK made the numbers' call on 2 of 4
  1. Q1 10:10ARK Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    26.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    26.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 7:39TENN Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 4:36ARK Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    41.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    40.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 2:52TENN Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 2:11TENN Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 13:14TENN Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 8:17ARK Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    9.0%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    9.1%
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 2:55ARK Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Numbers favored go for two by 2.3 ptsKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    15.1%−2.3
    97% to make
    Go for two
    17.5%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ARKDrive 1TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 4:4424% → 27%
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
75.8%
Taylen Green sacked for a loss of 3 yards to the ARK 22Similar
Q1 14:21
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+7
75.7%
Mike Washington Jr. run for 7 yds to the ARK 29Similar
Q1 13:25
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+5
75.5%
Taylen Green pass complete to O'Mega Blake for 5 yds to the ARK 34Similar
Q1 13:15
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+3
75.5%
Taylen Green run for 3 yds to the ARK 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:43
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+8
75.3%
Mike Washington Jr. run for 8 yds to the ARK 45Similar
Q1 11:59
2ND & 2
OWN 45
+3
74.9%
Taylen Green run for 3 yds to the ARK 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:25
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+38
74.8%
Mike Washington Jr. run for 38 yds to the TENN 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:48
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+3
74.4%
Mike Washington Jr. run for 3 yds to the TENN 11Similar
Q1 10:10
2ND & 7
OPP 11
+11
72.9%
Taylen Green run for 11 yds for a TD (Scott Starzyk KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 2TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 2:2473% → 75%
Q1 10:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
73.2%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Braylon Staley for 13 yds to the TENN 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:47
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+6
73.3%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Miles Kitselman for 6 yds to the TENN 44Similar
Q1 9:32
2ND & 4
OWN 44
+15
73.3%
DeSean Bishop run for 15 yds to the ARK 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:15
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+5
73.1%
DeSean Bishop run for 5 yds to the ARK 36Similar
Q1 8:57
2ND & 5
OPP 36
+19
72.6%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Braylon Staley for 19 yds to the ARK 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:28
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-5
72.9%
(08:32) No Huddle-Shotgun Aguilar,Joey rush left for 12 yards gain to the ARK05 (Worth III,Larry; Neal,Julian) PENALTY TENN Illegal Formation 5 yards from ARK17 to ARK22. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 8:00
1ST & 15
OPP 22
+5
72.6%
DeSean Bishop run for 5 yds to the ARK 17Similar
Q1 7:39
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+17
74.8%
DeSean Bishop run for 17 yds for a TD (Max Gilbert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 3FUMBLE
4 plays · 34 yds · 0:5126% → 27%
Q1 7:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
74.2%
(07:37) Shotgun Green,Taylen pass incomplete deep left to Brown,CJ thrown to TENN45 PENALTY TENN Personal Foul (Moi,Jaxson) 15 yards from ARK25 to ARK40, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:25
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+26
73.7%
Mike Washington Jr. run for 26 yds to the TENN 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:42
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-7
72.7%
Taylen Green sacked by Jordan Ross for a loss of 7 yards to the ARK 49 Taylen Green fumbled, recovered by ARK Jordan Ross , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:2975% → 74%
Q1 6:33
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
74.7%
DeSean Bishop run for 4 yds to the ARK 45Similar
Q1 6:18
2ND & 6
OPP 45
0
74.6%
Joey Aguilar pass incomplete to Chris Brazzell IISimilar
Q1 6:11
3RD & 6
OPP 45
0
74.4%
Joey Aguilar pass incomplete to Mike MatthewsSimilar
Q1 6:04
4TH & 6
OPP 45
0
73.9%
Jackson Ross punt for 45 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 5FG
11 plays · 70 yds · 5:3427% → 30%
Q1 5:54
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+22
73.2%
Braylen Russell run for 22 yds to the ARK 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
72.4%
Braylen Russell run for 4 yds to the ARK 46Similar
Q1 4:42
2ND & 6
OWN 46
0
72.1%
Braylen Russell run for no gain to the ARK 46Similar
Q1 3:41
3RD & 6
OWN 46
+8
72.0%
Taylen Green pass complete to Raylen Sharpe for 8 yds to the TENN 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:18
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+10
71.4%
Taylen Green pass complete to O'Mega Blake for 10 yds to the TENN 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:53
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+2
71.2%
Mike Washington Jr. run for 2 yds to the TENN 34Similar
Q1 2:14
2ND & 8
OPP 34
+18
70.3%
Taylen Green pass complete to CJ Brown for 18 yds to the TENN 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:41
1ST & 10
OPP 16
-2
69.9%
Braylen Russell run for a loss of 2 yards to the TENN 18Similar
Q1 0:59
2ND & 12
OPP 18
+8
69.8%
Taylen Green pass complete to Raylen Sharpe for 8 yds to the TENN 10Similar
Q1 0:25
3RD & 4
OPP 10
0
69.8%
Taylen Green pass incomplete to O'Mega BlakeSimilar
Q1 0:20
4TH & 4
OPP 10
+28
69.6%
Scott Starzyk 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 6FG
16 plays · 57 yds · 4:2468% → 72%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
68.3%
Star Thomas run for 3 yds to the TENN 28Similar
Q2 14:50
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+9
68.2%
Star Thomas run for 9 yds to the TENN 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:34
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+16
68.5%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Braylon Staley for 16 yds to the ARK 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:19
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+2
69.6%
Star Thomas run for 2 yds to the ARK 45Similar
Q2 13:45
2ND & 8
OPP 45
+11
69.3%
Joey Aguilar run for 11 yds to the ARK 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:36
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-5
69.8%
PENALTY TENN False Start (Perry,Jesse) 5 yards from ARK34 to ARK39. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 13:14
1ST & 15
OPP 39
0
68.3%
Star Thomas run for no gain to the ARK 39Similar
Q2 12:37
2ND & 15
OPP 39
+5
67.8%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Chris Brazzell II for 5 yds to the ARK 34Similar
Q2 12:18
3RD & 10
OPP 34
+15
68.2%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Braylon Staley for 15 yds to the ARK 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:53
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-1
69.1%
Star Thomas run for a loss of 1 yard to the ARK 20Similar
Q2 11:20
2ND & 11
OPP 20
+2
68.8%
Star Thomas run for 2 yds to the ARK 18Similar
Q2 10:40
3RD & 9
OPP 18
0
68.1%
Joey Aguilar pass incomplete to Chris Brazzell IISimilar
Q2 10:36
4TH & 9
OPP 18
+37
72.0%
Max Gilbert 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 7TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 5:5031% → 40%
Q2 10:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
69.5%
Braylen Russell run for 4 yds to the ARK 29Similar
Q2 9:49
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+20
68.8%
Taylen Green pass complete to O'Mega Blake for 20 yds to the ARK 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:19
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+5
67.2%
Mike Washington Jr. run for 5 yds to the TENN 46Similar
Q2 8:41
2ND & 5
OPP 46
+8
66.6%
Taylen Green run for 8 yds to the TENN 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:07
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
65.5%
Taylen Green pass incomplete to Rohan JonesSimilar
Q2 8:01
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+1
65.5%
Mike Washington Jr. run for 1 yd to the TENN 37Similar
Q2 7:15
3RD & 9
OPP 37
+22
65.3%
Taylen Green run for 22 yds to the TENN 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:41
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+4
63.6%
Braylen Russell run for 4 yds to the TENN 11Similar
Q2 5:59
2ND & 6
OPP 11
0
63.2%
Braylen Russell run for no gain to the TENN 11Similar
Q2 5:15
3RD & 6
OPP 11
+10
63.7%
Taylen Green pass complete to Raylen Sharpe for 10 yds to the TENN 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
59.7%
Mike Washington Jr. run for 1 yd for a TD (Scott Starzyk KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 8TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:2964% → 72%
Q2 4:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+42
63.7%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Braylon Staley for 42 yds to the ARK 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:01
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+4
67.2%
Peyton Lewis run for 4 yds to the ARK 29Similar
Q2 3:40
2ND & 6
OPP 29
+9
65.4%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Miles Kitselman for 9 yds to the ARK 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:16
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+12
65.2%
Mike Matthews run for 12 yds to the ARK 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
71.7%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Miles Kitselman for 8 yds for a TD (Max Gilbert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 9PUNT
9 plays · 14 yds · 1:4534% → 31%
Q2 2:39
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+5
66.2%
Mike Washington Jr. run for 5 yds to the ARK 33Similar
Q2 2:07
2ND & 5
OWN 33
+8
65.4%
Taylen Green pass complete to Raylen Sharpe for 8 yds to the ARK 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-11
65.7%
Taylen Green sacked by Daevin Hobbs for a loss of 11 yards to the ARK 30 Taylen Green fumbled, recovered by ARK Taylen Green , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q2 1:43
2ND & 21
OWN 30
+4
67.9%
Mike Washington Jr. run for 4 yds to the ARK 34Similar
Q2 1:33
3RD & 17
OWN 34
+8
68.8%
Taylen Green pass complete to Kam Shanks for 8 yds to the ARK 42Similar
Q2 0:54
4TH & 9
OWN 42
0
68.8%
Devin Bale punt for 40 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TENN 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · 30 yds · 0:4469% → 68%
Q2 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+32
69.1%
DeSean Bishop run for 32 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:42
1ST & 10
50
-5
71.8%
PENALTY TENN False Start 5 yards from TENN50 to TENN45. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:25
1ST & 15
OWN 45
+3
70.1%
Joey Aguilar run for 3 yds to the TENN 48Similar
Q2 0:20
2ND & 12
OWN 48
0
70.2%
Joey Aguilar pass incomplete to Chris Brazzell IISimilar
Q2 0:12
3RD & 12
OWN 48
0
68.8%
Joey Aguilar pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:01
4TH & 12
OWN 48
0
67.6%
Jackson Ross punt for 40 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 11END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0033% → 33%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 12
-1
67.5%
(00:01) Kneel down by Arkansas at ARK11 for loss of 1 yard.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 12FG
13 plays · 43 yds · 3:0268% → 70%
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
68.2%
DeSean Bishop run for 6 yds to the TENN 31Similar
Q3 14:43
2ND & 4
OWN 31
-5
69.4%
PENALTY TENN False Start (Umarov,Shamurad) 5 yards from TENN31 to TENN26. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 14:23
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+25
67.9%
DeSean Bishop run for 25 yds to the ARK 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+12
70.7%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Mike Matthews for 12 yds to the ARK 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:38
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+6
70.8%
DeSean Bishop run for 6 yds to the ARK 31Similar
Q3 13:19
2ND & 4
OPP 31
+14
71.4%
Joey Aguilar run for 14 yds to the ARK 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:00
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+2
71.3%
DeSean Bishop run for 2 yds to the ARK 15Similar
Q3 12:29
2ND & 8
OPP 15
-15
71.0%
(12:33) No Huddle-Shotgun Aguilar,Joey pass incomplete short right to Kitselman,Miles thrown to ARK10 PENALTY TENN Personal Foul (Heard,Lance) 15 yards from ARK15 to ARK30. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 12:21
2ND & 23
OPP 30
-2
69.4%
DeSean Bishop run for a loss of 2 yards to the ARK 32Similar
Q3 11:54
3RD & 25
OPP 32
0
67.9%
Joey Aguilar pass incomplete to Miles KitselmanSimilar
Q3 11:50
4TH & 25
OPP 32
+50
70.0%
Max Gilbert 50 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 13FUMBLE
7 plays · 61 yds · 2:3030% → 36%
Q3 11:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
70.0%
Mike Washington Jr. run for 11 yds to the ARK 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:09
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
68.6%
Taylen Green pass incomplete to Jaden PlattSimilar
Q3 11:01
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+2
69.1%
Taylen Green run for 2 yds to the ARK 38Similar
Q3 10:19
3RD & 8
OWN 38
+24
68.6%
Taylen Green pass complete to Kam Shanks for 24 yds to the TENN 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:47
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+9
66.0%
Mike Washington Jr. run for 9 yds to the TENN 29Similar
Q3 9:12
2ND & 1
OPP 29
+15
64.1%
Braylen Russell run for 15 yds to the TENN 14 Braylen Russell fumbled, recovered by ARK Arion CarterSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 0:2772% → 70%
Q3 9:04
1ST & 10
OWN 14
-2
71.6%
DeSean Bishop run for a loss of 2 yards to the TENN 12Similar
Q3 8:51
2ND & 12
OWN 12
0
71.4%
Joey Aguilar pass incomplete to Braylon StaleySimilar
Q3 8:45
3RD & 12
OWN 12
0
70.3%
Joey Aguilar pass incomplete to Miles KitselmanSimilar
Q3 8:37
4TH & 12
OWN 12
0
69.5%
Jackson Ross punt for 47 yds , Kam Shanks returns for no gain to the ARK 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 15DOWNS
8 plays · 35 yds · 2:3533% → 33%
Q3 8:32
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
67.0%
Taylen Green pass incomplete to Rohan JonesSimilar
Q3 8:26
2ND & 10
OWN 40
0
67.7%
Mike Washington Jr. run for no gain to the ARK 40Similar
Q3 7:39
3RD & 10
OWN 40
+28
68.6%
Taylen Green run for 18 yds to the TENN 42 for a 1ST down Tennessee Penalty, Defensive Holding (Joshua Josephs) to the TENN 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:25
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+8
63.6%
Taylen Green run for 8 yds to the TENN 24Similar
Q3 6:50
2ND & 2
OPP 24
0
62.9%
Taylen Green pass incomplete to CJ BrownSimilar
Q3 6:37
3RD & 2
OPP 24
-1
64.4%
Mike Washington Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the TENN 25Similar
Q3 5:57
4TH & 3
OPP 25
0
67.5%
Arkansas Penalty, Personal Foul (Justus Boone) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 16PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 0:5572% → 69%
Q3 5:44
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
71.8%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Star Thomas for 5 yds to the TENN 31Similar
Q3 5:33
2ND & 5
OWN 31
0
72.0%
Joey Aguilar pass incomplete to Braylon StaleySimilar
Q3 5:15
3RD & 5
OWN 31
+4
70.8%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Braylon Staley for 4 yds to the TENN 35Similar
Q3 5:01
4TH & 1
OWN 35
-5
70.3%
PENALTY TENN False Start (Satterwhite,William) 5 yards from TENN35 to TENN30. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:49
4TH & 6
OWN 30
+8
69.0%
Jackson Ross punt for 48 yds , Kam Shanks returns for 8 yds to the ARK 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:4232% → 28%
Q3 4:43
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
68.4%
Mike Washington Jr. run for 2 yds to the ARK 32Similar
Q3 4:15
2ND & 8
OWN 32
0
69.0%
Taylen Green pass incomplete to O'Mega BlakeSimilar
Q3 4:07
3RD & 8
OWN 32
0
70.8%
Taylen Green pass incomplete to O'Mega BlakeSimilar
Q3 4:01
4TH & 8
OWN 32
0
72.0%
Devin Bale punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Boo Carter at the TENN 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 18TD
6 plays · 74 yds · 1:3972% → 86%
Q3 3:50
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+7
71.5%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Mike Matthews for 7 yds to the TENN 33Similar
Q3 3:33
2ND & 3
OWN 33
+7
72.7%
DeSean Bishop run for 7 yds to the TENN 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+27
73.9%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Mike Matthews for 27 yds to the ARK 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:46
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+26
75.6%
DeSean Bishop run for 26 yds to the ARK 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+5
75.5%
Peyton Lewis run for 5 yds to the ARK 2Similar
Q3 2:11
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
86.4%
Peyton Lewis run for 2 yds for a TD (Max Gilbert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 19FUMBLE
7 plays · -6 yds · 2:2115% → 12%
Q3 2:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
85.1%
Mike Washington Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the ARK 24Similar
Q3 1:27
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+12
86.1%
Taylen Green pass complete to O'Mega Blake for 12 yds to the ARK 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:54
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-2
85.0%
Mike Washington Jr. run for a loss of 2 yards to the ARK 34Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 12
OWN 34
-10
87.7%
(00:21) No Huddle-Shotgun Green,Taylen rush left for 7 yards gain to the ARK41, out of bounds at ARK41 PENALTY ARK Holding (Robinson II,Corey) 10 yards from ARK34 to ARK24. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:53
2ND & 22
OWN 24
-9
87.9%
Arkansas Penalty, Offensive Holding (Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 14:45
3RD & 31
OWN 15
+4
88.5%
Taylen Green run for 4 yds to the ARK 19 Taylen Green fumbled, recovered by ARK Jadon PerlotteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 20TD
5 plays · 19 yds · 1:2190% → 99%
Q4 14:35
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+4
90.4%
Peyton Lewis run for 4 yds to the ARK 15Similar
Q4 14:09
2ND & 6
OPP 15
+10
90.3%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Miles Kitselman for 10 yds to the ARK 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
90.2%
Peyton Lewis run for 2 yds to the ARK 3Similar
Q4 13:14
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
99.0%
Peyton Lewis run for 3 yds for a TD (Max Gilbert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 21TD
13 plays · 81 yds · 4:464% → 11%
Q4 13:03
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-5
95.7%
Taylen Green sacked for a loss of 5 yards to the ARK 14Similar
Q4 12:16
2ND & 15
OWN 14
+6
96.0%
Taylen Green pass complete to Jaden Platt for 6 yds to the ARK 20Similar
Q4 11:37
3RD & 9
OWN 20
+18
96.1%
Taylen Green pass complete to O'Mega Blake for 18 yds to the ARK 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:10
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
96.0%
Taylen Green run for 4 yds to the ARK 42Similar
Q4 10:35
2ND & 6
OWN 42
+13
96.4%
Mike Washington Jr. run for 13 yds to the TENN 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:52
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+6
96.3%
Taylen Green pass complete to Mike Washington Jr. for 6 yds to the TENN 39Similar
Q4 9:33
2ND & 4
OPP 39
+5
96.1%
Taylen Green run for 5 yds to the TENN 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:56
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+6
96.0%
Taylen Green pass complete to Raylen Sharpe for 6 yds to the TENN 28Similar
Q4 8:26
2ND & 4
OPP 28
+19
95.9%
Taylen Green run for 10 yds to the TENN 18 for a 1ST down Tennessee Penalty, Personal Foul (Edwin Spillman) to the TENN 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
88.9%
Taylen Green pass complete to Rohan Jones for 9 yds for a TD (Scott Starzyk KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 22PUNT
9 plays · 27 yds · 3:1997% → 98%
Q4 8:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
96.9%
Star Thomas run for 1 yd to the TENN 26Similar
Q4 7:37
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+23
97.1%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Miles Kitselman for 23 yds to the TENN 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:56
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+3
97.5%
Star Thomas run for 3 yds to the ARK 48Similar
Q4 6:19
2ND & 7
OPP 48
+4
97.7%
Star Thomas run for 4 yds to the ARK 44Similar
Q4 5:37
3RD & 3
OPP 44
0
97.8%
Star Thomas run for no gain to the ARK 44Similar
Q4 4:58
4TH & 3
OPP 44
-4
97.7%
PENALTY TENN Delay Of Game 4 yards from ARK44 to ARK48. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 4:51
4TH & 7
OPP 48
0
97.6%
Jackson Ross punt for 48 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 23TD
8 plays · 80 yds · 1:446% → 33%
Q4 4:39
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+30
94.5%
Taylen Green pass complete to Raylen Sharpe for 30 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:18
1ST & 10
50
+12
93.4%
Taylen Green pass complete to CJ Brown for 12 yds to the TENN 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:45
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+6
93.9%
Taylen Green pass complete to Raylen Sharpe for 6 yds to the TENN 32Similar
Q4 3:22
2ND & 4
OPP 32
+20
93.5%
Taylen Green pass complete to CJ Brown for 20 yds to the TENN 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:07
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
94.3%
Taylen Green pass incomplete to Kam ShanksSimilar
Q4 3:02
2ND & 10
OPP 12
0
94.4%
Taylen Green pass incomplete to O'Mega BlakeSimilar
Q4 2:55
3RD & 10
OPP 12
+12
66.8%
Taylen Green pass complete to Kam Shanks for 12 yds for a TD (Scott Starzyk KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 24END OF GAME
10 plays · 35 yds · 2:4484% → 96%
Q4 2:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+28
84.3%
Joey Aguilar run for 28 yds to the ARK 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:31
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+6
88.1%
Peyton Lewis run for 6 yds to the ARK 41Similar
Q4 1:54
2ND & 4
OPP 41
+3
90.4%
Joey Aguilar run for 3 yds to the ARK 38Similar
Q4 1:49
3RD & 1
OPP 38
+7
89.4%
Peyton Lewis run for 7 yds to the ARK 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:18
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-4
92.7%
(01:21) Kneel down by Tennessee at ARK35 for loss of 4 yards.Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 14
OPP 35
-5
95.7%
(00:38) Kneel down by Tennessee at ARK40 for loss of 5 yards.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 2:55
Taylen Green pass complete to Kam Shanks for 12 yds for a TD (Scott Starzyk KICK)
-27.6
TD · Q4 13:14
Peyton Lewis run for 3 yds for a TD (Max Gilbert KICK)
+11.6
TD · Q3 2:11
Peyton Lewis run for 2 yds for a TD (Max Gilbert KICK)
+10.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com