ARK
Arkansas 31 at Tennessee 34
TENN2025 · Week 7 · Oct 11, 2025 · Neyland Stadium
Speed4x
Win probability · TENN
modelTENN aheadARK aheadconfidence bandkey play
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ARK · Drive 1TD · 11 plays · 75 yds
Q1 15:00
Josh Turbyville kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
73.7%
0.0
Q1 14:54
Taylen Green sacked for a loss of 3 yards to the ARK 22
72.1%
-1.7
Q1 14:21
Mike Washington Jr. run for 7 yds to the ARK 29
71.1%
-1.0
Q1 13:25
Taylen Green pass complete to O'Mega Blake for 5 yds to the ARK 34
71.1%
0.0
Q1 13:15
Taylen Green run for 3 yds to the ARK 37 for a 1ST down
71.1%
0.0
Q1 12:43
Mike Washington Jr. run for 8 yds to the ARK 45
70.9%
-0.2
Q1 11:59
Taylen Green run for 3 yds to the ARK 48 for a 1ST down
69.4%
-1.5
Q1 11:25
Mike Washington Jr. run for 38 yds to the TENN 14 for a 1ST down
69.2%
-0.2
Q1 10:48
Mike Washington Jr. run for 3 yds to the TENN 11
68.8%
-0.4
Q1 10:10
Taylen Green run for 11 yds for a TD (Scott Starzyk KICK)
53.4%
-15.5
Q1 10:10
Timeout Tennessee, clock 10:10
72.5%
+19.1
TENN · Drive 2TD · 11 plays · 75 yds
Q1 10:10
Devin Bale kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
54.1%
-18.4
Q1 10:03
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Braylon Staley for 13 yds to the TENN 38 for a 1ST down
57.1%
+3.0
Q1 9:47
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Miles Kitselman for 6 yds to the TENN 44
57.5%
+0.4
Q1 9:32
DeSean Bishop run for 15 yds to the ARK 41 for a 1ST down
57.8%
+0.3
Q1 9:31
Timeout Tennessee, clock 09:31
61.4%
+3.6
Q1 9:15
DeSean Bishop run for 5 yds to the ARK 36
61.4%
0.0
Q1 8:57
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Braylon Staley for 19 yds to the ARK 17 for a 1ST down
61.3%
-0.1
Q1 8:28
(08:32) No Huddle-Shotgun Aguilar,Joey rush left for 12 yards gain to the ARK05 (Worth III,Larry; Neal,Julian) PENALTY TENN Illegal Formation 5 yards from ARK17 to ARK22. NO PLAY.
61.3%
0.0
Q1 8:00
DeSean Bishop run for 5 yds to the ARK 17
61.3%
0.0
Q1 7:39
DeSean Bishop run for 17 yds for a TD (Max Gilbert KICK)
75.5%
+14.1
Q1 7:39
Timeout Tennessee, clock 07:39
54.3%
-21.2
ARK · Drive 3FUMBLE · 4 plays · 34 yds
Q1 7:39
Josh Turbyville kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
74.1%
+19.8
Q1 7:33
(07:37) Shotgun Green,Taylen pass incomplete deep left to Brown,CJ thrown to TENN45 PENALTY TENN Personal Foul (Moi,Jaxson) 15 yards from ARK25 to ARK40, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.
69.6%
-4.4
Q1 7:25
Mike Washington Jr. run for 26 yds to the TENN 34 for a 1ST down
68.8%
-0.8
Q1 6:42
Taylen Green sacked by Jordan Ross for a loss of 7 yards to the ARK 49 Taylen Green fumbled, recovered by ARK Jordan Ross , return for 0 yards
67.2%
-1.7
TENN · Drive 4PUNT · 4 plays · 4 yds
Q1 6:33
DeSean Bishop run for 4 yds to the ARK 45
75.7%
+8.5
Q1 6:18
Joey Aguilar pass incomplete to Chris Brazzell II
74.8%
-0.9
Q1 6:11
Joey Aguilar pass incomplete to Mike Matthews
74.3%
-0.4
Q1 6:04
Jackson Ross punt for 45 yds for a touchback
74.1%
-0.3
ARK · Drive 5FG · 11 plays · 70 yds
Q1 5:54
Braylen Russell run for 22 yds to the ARK 42 for a 1ST down
68.3%
-5.8
Q1 5:20
Braylen Russell run for 4 yds to the ARK 46
67.3%
-1.1
Q1 4:42
Braylen Russell run for no gain to the ARK 46
66.5%
-0.7
Q1 3:41
Taylen Green pass complete to Raylen Sharpe for 8 yds to the TENN 46 for a 1ST down
66.5%
-0.1
Q1 3:18
Taylen Green pass complete to O'Mega Blake for 10 yds to the TENN 36 for a 1ST down
66.2%
-0.2
Q1 2:53
Mike Washington Jr. run for 2 yds to the TENN 34
65.7%
-0.5
Q1 2:14
Taylen Green pass complete to CJ Brown for 18 yds to the TENN 16 for a 1ST down
65.5%
-0.3
Q1 1:41
Braylen Russell run for a loss of 2 yards to the TENN 18
64.4%
-1.1
Q1 0:59
Taylen Green pass complete to Raylen Sharpe for 8 yds to the TENN 10
64.4%
0.0
Q1 0:25
Taylen Green pass incomplete to O'Mega Blake
64.1%
-0.4
Q1 0:20
Scott Starzyk 28 yd FG GOOD
59.9%
-4.1
TENN · Drive 6FG · 16 plays · 57 yds
Q1 0:20
Devin Bale kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
61.0%
+1.1
Q1 0:00
Star Thomas run for 3 yds to the TENN 28
66.3%
+5.3
Q2 14:50
Star Thomas run for 9 yds to the TENN 37 for a 1ST down
66.3%
0.0
Q2 14:34
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Braylon Staley for 16 yds to the ARK 47 for a 1ST down
66.3%
0.0
Q2 14:19
Star Thomas run for 2 yds to the ARK 45
68.0%
+1.7
Q2 13:45
Joey Aguilar run for 11 yds to the ARK 34 for a 1ST down
68.0%
0.0
Q2 13:36
PENALTY TENN False Start (Perry,Jesse) 5 yards from ARK34 to ARK39. NO PLAY.
68.8%
+0.9
Q2 13:14
Star Thomas run for no gain to the ARK 39
68.8%
0.0
Q2 12:37
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Chris Brazzell II for 5 yds to the ARK 34
68.8%
0.0
Q2 12:18
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Braylon Staley for 15 yds to the ARK 19 for a 1ST down
68.6%
-0.2
Q2 11:53
Star Thomas run for a loss of 1 yard to the ARK 20
68.8%
+0.2
Q2 11:20
Star Thomas run for 2 yds to the ARK 18
68.8%
0.0
Q2 10:45
Timeout Tennessee, clock 10:45
68.6%
-0.2
Q2 10:40
Joey Aguilar pass incomplete to Chris Brazzell II
68.6%
0.0
Q2 10:36
Max Gilbert 37 yd FG GOOD
72.4%
+3.8
Q2 10:35
Timeout Tennessee, clock 10:35
59.4%
-13.0
ARK · Drive 7TD · 14 plays · 75 yds
Q2 10:35
Josh Turbyville kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
70.9%
+11.5
Q2 10:26
Braylen Russell run for 4 yds to the ARK 29
66.7%
-4.2
Q2 9:49
Taylen Green pass complete to O'Mega Blake for 20 yds to the ARK 49 for a 1ST down
66.7%
0.0
Q2 9:19
Mike Washington Jr. run for 5 yds to the TENN 46
64.8%
-1.8
Q2 8:41
Taylen Green run for 8 yds to the TENN 38 for a 1ST down
64.6%
-0.3
Q2 8:07
Taylen Green pass incomplete to Rohan Jones
61.9%
-2.7
Q2 8:01
Mike Washington Jr. run for 1 yd to the TENN 37
61.9%
0.0
Q2 7:15
Taylen Green run for 22 yds to the TENN 15 for a 1ST down
61.9%
0.0
Q2 6:41
Braylen Russell run for 4 yds to the TENN 11
61.9%
0.0
Q2 5:59
Braylen Russell run for no gain to the TENN 11
61.9%
0.0
Q2 5:15
Taylen Green pass complete to Raylen Sharpe for 10 yds to the TENN 1 for a 1ST down
61.9%
0.0
Q2 4:36
Timeout Tennessee, clock 04:36
61.9%
0.0
Q2 4:36
Timeout Tennessee, clock 04:36
70.8%
+8.9
Q2 4:36
Mike Washington Jr. run for 1 yd for a TD (Scott Starzyk KICK)
44.7%
-26.2
TENN · Drive 8TD · 6 plays · 75 yds
Q2 4:36
Devin Bale kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
46.5%
+1.9
Q2 4:21
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Braylon Staley for 42 yds to the ARK 33 for a 1ST down
51.7%
+5.1
Q2 4:01
Peyton Lewis run for 4 yds to the ARK 29
54.7%
+3.0
Q2 3:40
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Miles Kitselman for 9 yds to the ARK 20 for a 1ST down
54.7%
0.0
Q2 3:16
Mike Matthews run for 12 yds to the ARK 8 for a 1ST down
54.7%
0.0
Q2 2:52
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Miles Kitselman for 8 yds for a TD (Max Gilbert KICK)
72.5%
+17.8
ARK · Drive 9PUNT · 9 plays · 14 yds
Q2 2:47
Josh Turbyville kickoff for 61 yds , Rodney Hill return for 24 yds to the ARK 28
70.5%
-2.0
Q2 2:39
Mike Washington Jr. run for 5 yds to the ARK 33
65.3%
-5.2
Q2 2:07
Taylen Green pass complete to Raylen Sharpe for 8 yds to the ARK 41 for a 1ST down
65.2%
-0.1
Q2 1:50
Taylen Green sacked by Daevin Hobbs for a loss of 11 yards to the ARK 30 Taylen Green fumbled, recovered by ARK Taylen Green , return for 0 yards
64.1%
-1.1
Q2 1:43
Timeout Tennessee, clock 01:43
65.2%
+1.1
Q2 1:43
Mike Washington Jr. run for 4 yds to the ARK 34
65.2%
0.0
Q2 1:33
Taylen Green pass complete to Kam Shanks for 8 yds to the ARK 42
65.2%
0.0
Q2 1:01
Timeout Arkansas, clock 01:01
63.9%
-1.3
Q2 0:54
Devin Bale punt for 40 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TENN 18
63.9%
0.0
TENN · Drive 10PUNT · 6 plays · 30 yds
Q2 0:45
DeSean Bishop run for 32 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down
69.0%
+5.2
Q2 0:42
PENALTY TENN False Start 5 yards from TENN50 to TENN45. NO PLAY.
69.7%
+0.7
Q2 0:25
Joey Aguilar run for 3 yds to the TENN 48
68.6%
-1.1
Q2 0:20
Joey Aguilar pass incomplete to Chris Brazzell II
68.6%
0.0
Q2 0:12
Joey Aguilar pass incomplete
67.8%
-0.8
Q2 0:01
Jackson Ross punt for 40 yds
67.5%
-0.3
ARK · Drive 11END OF HALF · 1 play · -1 yds
Q2 0:00
(00:01) Kneel down by Arkansas at ARK11 for loss of 1 yard.
62.8%
-4.8
TENN · Drive 12FG · 13 plays · 43 yds
Q3 15:00
Devin Bale kickoff for 62 yds
63.2%
+0.5
Q3 14:52
DeSean Bishop run for 6 yds to the TENN 31
69.1%
+5.9
Q3 14:43
PENALTY TENN False Start (Umarov,Shamurad) 5 yards from TENN31 to TENN26. NO PLAY.
69.1%
0.0
Q3 14:23
DeSean Bishop run for 25 yds to the ARK 49 for a 1ST down
69.1%
0.0
Q3 14:00
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Mike Matthews for 12 yds to the ARK 37 for a 1ST down
70.9%
+1.8
Q3 13:38
DeSean Bishop run for 6 yds to the ARK 31
70.8%
-0.1
Q3 13:19
Joey Aguilar run for 14 yds to the ARK 17 for a 1ST down
70.8%
0.0
Q3 13:00
DeSean Bishop run for 2 yds to the ARK 15
70.7%
-0.1
Q3 12:29
(12:33) No Huddle-Shotgun Aguilar,Joey pass incomplete short right to Kitselman,Miles thrown to ARK10 PENALTY TENN Personal Foul (Heard,Lance) 15 yards from ARK15 to ARK30. NO PLAY.
70.7%
0.0
Q3 12:21
DeSean Bishop run for a loss of 2 yards to the ARK 32
70.7%
0.0
Q3 11:54
Joey Aguilar pass incomplete to Miles Kitselman
70.5%
-0.2
Q3 11:50
Max Gilbert 50 yd FG GOOD
75.3%
+4.8
Q3 11:50
Timeout Tennessee, clock 11:50
61.4%
-13.9
ARK · Drive 13FUMBLE · 7 plays · 61 yds
Q3 11:50
Josh Turbyville kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
74.6%
+13.1
Q3 11:42
Mike Washington Jr. run for 11 yds to the ARK 36 for a 1ST down
71.7%
-2.9
Q3 11:09
Taylen Green pass incomplete to Jaden Platt
71.7%
0.0
Q3 11:01
Taylen Green run for 2 yds to the ARK 38
71.4%
-0.3
Q3 10:19
Taylen Green pass complete to Kam Shanks for 24 yds to the TENN 38 for a 1ST down
70.7%
-0.8
Q3 9:47
Mike Washington Jr. run for 9 yds to the TENN 29
68.7%
-2.0
Q3 9:12
Braylen Russell run for 15 yds to the TENN 14 Braylen Russell fumbled, recovered by ARK Arion Carter
68.7%
0.0
TENN · Drive 14PUNT · 5 plays · -2 yds
Q3 9:12
Timeout Tennessee, clock 09:12
76.2%
+7.5
Q3 9:04
DeSean Bishop run for a loss of 2 yards to the TENN 12
76.2%
0.0
Q3 8:51
Joey Aguilar pass incomplete to Braylon Staley
76.2%
0.0
Q3 8:45
Joey Aguilar pass incomplete to Miles Kitselman
76.2%
0.0
Q3 8:37
Jackson Ross punt for 47 yds , Kam Shanks returns for no gain to the ARK 40
75.7%
-0.5
ARK · Drive 15DOWNS · 8 plays · 35 yds
Q3 8:32
Taylen Green pass incomplete to Rohan Jones
70.4%
-5.3
Q3 8:26
Mike Washington Jr. run for no gain to the ARK 40
70.4%
0.0
Q3 7:39
Taylen Green run for 18 yds to the TENN 42 for a 1ST down Tennessee Penalty, Defensive Holding (Joshua Josephs) to the TENN 32 for a 1ST down
70.4%
0.0
Q3 7:25
Taylen Green run for 8 yds to the TENN 24
68.6%
-1.8
Q3 6:50
Taylen Green pass incomplete to CJ Brown
68.6%
0.0
Q3 6:37
Mike Washington Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the TENN 25
68.6%
0.0
Q3 6:07
Timeout Arkansas, clock 06:07
69.1%
+0.5
Q3 5:57
Arkansas Penalty, Personal Foul (Justus Boone) declined
69.1%
0.0
TENN · Drive 16PUNT · 6 plays · 4 yds
Q3 5:57
Timeout Tennessee, clock 05:57
75.6%
+6.6
Q3 5:44
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Star Thomas for 5 yds to the TENN 31
75.6%
0.0
Q3 5:33
Joey Aguilar pass incomplete to Braylon Staley
75.6%
0.0
Q3 5:15
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Braylon Staley for 4 yds to the TENN 35
74.5%
-1.1
Q3 5:01
PENALTY TENN False Start (Satterwhite,William) 5 yards from TENN35 to TENN30. NO PLAY.
74.0%
-0.5
Q3 4:49
Jackson Ross punt for 48 yds , Kam Shanks returns for 8 yds to the ARK 30
74.0%
0.0
ARK · Drive 17PUNT · 4 plays · 2 yds
Q3 4:43
Mike Washington Jr. run for 2 yds to the ARK 32
71.8%
-2.2
Q3 4:15
Taylen Green pass incomplete to O'Mega Blake
71.2%
-0.6
Q3 4:07
Taylen Green pass incomplete to O'Mega Blake
71.2%
0.0
Q3 4:01
Devin Bale punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Boo Carter at the TENN 26
71.2%
0.0
TENN · Drive 18TD · 6 plays · 74 yds
Q3 3:50
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Mike Matthews for 7 yds to the TENN 33
74.3%
+3.0
Q3 3:33
DeSean Bishop run for 7 yds to the TENN 40 for a 1ST down
74.3%
0.0
Q3 3:10
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Mike Matthews for 27 yds to the ARK 33 for a 1ST down
75.2%
+1.0
Q3 2:46
DeSean Bishop run for 26 yds to the ARK 7 for a 1ST down
75.9%
+0.6
Q3 2:30
Peyton Lewis run for 5 yds to the ARK 2
75.9%
0.0
Q3 2:11
Peyton Lewis run for 2 yds for a TD (Max Gilbert KICK)
91.8%
+15.9
ARK · Drive 19FUMBLE · 7 plays · -6 yds
Q3 2:11
Josh Turbyville kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
91.6%
-0.2
Q3 2:06
Mike Washington Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the ARK 24
86.3%
-5.3
Q3 1:27
Taylen Green pass complete to O'Mega Blake for 12 yds to the ARK 36 for a 1ST down
87.7%
+1.4
Q3 0:54
Mike Washington Jr. run for a loss of 2 yards to the ARK 34
87.7%
0.0
Q3 0:00
(00:21) No Huddle-Shotgun Green,Taylen rush left for 7 yards gain to the ARK41, out of bounds at ARK41 PENALTY ARK Holding (Robinson II,Corey) 10 yards from ARK34 to ARK24. NO PLAY.
88.9%
+1.2
Q4 14:53
Arkansas Penalty, Offensive Holding (Yards) declined
88.9%
0.0
Q4 14:45
Taylen Green run for 4 yds to the ARK 19 Taylen Green fumbled, recovered by ARK Jadon Perlotte
88.9%
0.0
TENN · Drive 20TD · 5 plays · 19 yds
Q4 14:35
Peyton Lewis run for 4 yds to the ARK 15
92.4%
+3.5
Q4 14:09
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Miles Kitselman for 10 yds to the ARK 5 for a 1ST down
92.4%
0.0
Q4 13:49
Peyton Lewis run for 2 yds to the ARK 3
92.4%
0.0
Q4 13:15
Timeout Tennessee, clock 13:15
88.8%
-3.6
Q4 13:14
Peyton Lewis run for 3 yds for a TD (Max Gilbert KICK)
97.2%
+8.4
ARK · Drive 21TD · 13 plays · 81 yds
Q4 13:10
Josh Turbyville kickoff for 65 yds , Rodney Hill return for 19 yds to the ARK 19
97.2%
0.0
Q4 13:03
Taylen Green sacked for a loss of 5 yards to the ARK 14
95.8%
-1.4
Q4 12:16
Taylen Green pass complete to Jaden Platt for 6 yds to the ARK 20
95.9%
+0.1
Q4 11:37
Taylen Green pass complete to O'Mega Blake for 18 yds to the ARK 38 for a 1ST down
95.8%
-0.1
Q4 11:10
Taylen Green run for 4 yds to the ARK 42
95.8%
0.0
Q4 10:35
Mike Washington Jr. run for 13 yds to the TENN 45 for a 1ST down
95.8%
0.0
Q4 9:52
Taylen Green pass complete to Mike Washington Jr. for 6 yds to the TENN 39
95.7%
-0.1
Q4 9:33
Taylen Green run for 5 yds to the TENN 34 for a 1ST down
95.6%
-0.2
Q4 8:56
Taylen Green pass complete to Raylen Sharpe for 6 yds to the TENN 28
95.6%
+0.1
Q4 8:26
Taylen Green run for 10 yds to the TENN 18 for a 1ST down Tennessee Penalty, Personal Foul (Edwin Spillman) to the TENN 9 for a 1ST down
95.6%
0.0
Q4 8:26
Timeout Tennessee, clock 08:26
95.6%
0.0
Q4 8:17
Taylen Green pass complete to Rohan Jones for 9 yds for a TD (Scott Starzyk KICK)
88.3%
-7.4
Q4 8:17
Timeout Tennessee, clock 08:17
97.3%
+9.1
TENN · Drive 22PUNT · 9 plays · 27 yds
Q4 8:17
Devin Bale kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
88.9%
-8.5
Q4 8:10
Star Thomas run for 1 yd to the TENN 26
93.6%
+4.7
Q4 7:37
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Miles Kitselman for 23 yds to the TENN 49 for a 1ST down
93.9%
+0.2
Q4 6:56
Star Thomas run for 3 yds to the ARK 48
93.9%
+0.1
Q4 6:46
Timeout Tennessee, clock 06:46
94.0%
+0.1
Q4 6:19
Star Thomas run for 4 yds to the ARK 44
94.0%
-0.1
Q4 5:37
Star Thomas run for no gain to the ARK 44
94.0%
+0.1
Q4 4:58
PENALTY TENN Delay Of Game 4 yards from ARK44 to ARK48. NO PLAY.
94.3%
+0.3
Q4 4:51
Jackson Ross punt for 48 yds for a touchback
94.3%
0.0
ARK · Drive 23TD · 8 plays · 80 yds
Q4 4:39
Taylen Green pass complete to Raylen Sharpe for 30 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down
91.8%
-2.5
Q4 4:18
Taylen Green pass complete to CJ Brown for 12 yds to the TENN 38 for a 1ST down
92.3%
+0.4
Q4 3:45
Taylen Green pass complete to Raylen Sharpe for 6 yds to the TENN 32
92.1%
-0.2
Q4 3:23
Timeout Tennessee, clock 03:23
92.1%
0.0
Q4 3:22
Taylen Green pass complete to CJ Brown for 20 yds to the TENN 12 for a 1ST down
92.1%
0.0
Q4 3:07
Taylen Green pass incomplete to Kam Shanks
92.1%
0.0
Q4 3:02
Taylen Green pass incomplete to O'Mega Blake
92.0%
-0.1
Q4 2:55
Taylen Green pass complete to Kam Shanks for 12 yds for a TD (Scott Starzyk KICK)
73.8%
-18.2
TENN · Drive 24END OF GAME · 10 plays · 35 yds
Q4 2:55
Devin Bale kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
76.9%
+3.1
Q4 2:44
Joey Aguilar run for 28 yds to the ARK 47 for a 1ST down
83.8%
+6.8
Q4 2:40
Timeout Arkansas, clock 02:40
84.4%
+0.6
Q4 2:31
Peyton Lewis run for 6 yds to the ARK 41
84.6%
+0.2
Q4 2:00
Timeout Tennessee, clock 02:00
85.1%
+0.5
Q4 1:56
Timeout Arkansas, clock 01:56
85.4%
+0.3
Q4 1:54
Joey Aguilar run for 3 yds to the ARK 38
85.6%
+0.2
Q4 1:49
Peyton Lewis run for 7 yds to the ARK 31 for a 1ST down
85.4%
-0.2
Q4 1:18
(01:21) Kneel down by Tennessee at ARK35 for loss of 4 yards.
87.6%
+2.2
Q4 0:00
(00:38) Kneel down by Tennessee at ARK40 for loss of 5 yards.
90.9%
+3.3
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 4:36
Mike Washington Jr. run for 1 yd for a TD (Scott Starzyk KICK)
-26.2
KEY PLAY · Q1 7:39
Timeout Tennessee, clock 07:39
-21.2
KEY PLAY · Q1 7:39
Josh Turbyville kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
+19.8