Try the model
ALA

Alabama 27 at Missouri 24

MIZ
2025 · Week 7 · Oct 11, 2025 · Memorial Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · MIZ
modelMIZ aheadALA aheadconfidence bandkey playMIZ scoreALA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGFGTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 4:39 · Connor Weselman punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Cole Adams at the ALA 33
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+34.5+17.30−17.3−34.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 25Home team on offense+0.1Pregame prior−11.4Garbage-time factor−0.3Score differential−0.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 13:18: Beau Pribula run for 5 yds for a TD (Robert Meyer KICK) — MIZ win probability +15.2 pts (now 53%) (top driver: MIZ has the ball).
  2. FG · Q3 0:09: Conor Talty 22 yd FG GOOD — ALA win probability +5.5 pts (now 61%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 3:16: Ty Simpson pass complete to Daniel Hill for 1 yd for a TD (Conor Talty KICK) — ALA win probability +15.0 pts (now 93%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 1:40: Beau Pribula pass complete to Donovan Olugbode for 3 yds for a TD (Robert Meyer KICK) — MIZ win probability +35.9 pts (now 45%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
  5. TD · Q4 1:40: Timeout Alabama, clock 01:40 — ALA win probability +11.8 pts (now 67%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MIZ made the numbers' call on 6 of 7ALA made the numbers' call on 6 of 9
  1. Q1 4:39MIZ 4th & 4 at MIZ 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.5%−0.2
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.7%
    average punt
  2. Q2 11:57MIZ 4th & 14 at MIZ 35, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.5%−1.8
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.3%
    average punt
  3. Q2 7:10ALA 4th & 8 at MIZ 30, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 62.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.5%−0.2
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    62.7%
    56% to make
    Punt
    61.5%−1.2
    average punt
  4. Q2 5:34MIZ 4th & 8 at MIZ 27, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.8%−0.6
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.4%
    average punt
  5. Q2 3:32ALA 4th & 13 at MIZ 48, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.4%−0.8
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.2%
    average punt
  6. Q2 1:38MIZ 4th & 1 at ALA 25, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 33.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    33.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    32.2%−1.3
    66% to make
    Punt
    28.2%−5.3
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:00MIZ 4th & 3 at ALA 17, down 10
    Close callKicked a field goal · 32.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.3%
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    31.7%−0.6
    80% to make
    Punt
    26.4%−5.9
    average punt
  8. Q3 10:27ALA 4th & 3 at ALA 47, tied
    Close callPunted · 51.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.9%−1.0
    average punt
  9. Q3 0:09ALA 4th & 4 at MIZ 4, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsKicked a field goal · 52.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.9%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    50.7%−1.3
    93% to make
    Punt
    35.3%−16.6
    average punt
  10. Q4 10:23ALA 4th & 1 at MIZ 41, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 66.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    65.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    56.1%−9.7
    32% to make
    Punt
    57.8%−8.0
    average punt
  11. Q4 9:19ALA 4th & 10 at MIZ 31, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 65.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.2%−1.5
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    63.8%
    54% to make
    Punt
    60.4%−3.3
    average punt
  12. Q4 7:02MIZ 4th & 4 at MIZ 37, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 37.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    35.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    33.8%−2.0
    average punt
  13. Q4 5:40ALA 4th & 8 at MIZ 38, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 72.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    71.8%
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    70.0%−1.8
    38% to make
    Punt
    69.8%−2.0
    average punt
  14. Q4 3:16ALA 4th & 1 at MIZ 1, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 77.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    73.9%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    64.4%−9.5
    94% to make
    Punt
    41.8%−32.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 1:17ALA 4th & 10 at MIZ 41, up 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsPunted · 84.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.7%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    82.3%−0.4
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    81.7%−1.1
    average punt
  16. Q4 0:52MIZ 4th & 6 at MIZ 22, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 23.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    16.6%
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    13.6%−3.0
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MIZ made the numbers' call on 2 of 3ALA made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 12:10MIZ Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    44.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    44.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 6:05ALA Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    53.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    53.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 14:51ALA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    58.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 13:18MIZ Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    47.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 3:16ALA Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.1%−1.3
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 1:40MIZ Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    14.4%−0.6
    97% to make
    Go for two
    15.0%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MIZDrive 1TD
7 plays · 78 yds · 2:3937% → 39%
Q1 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+6
36.5%
Ahmad Hardy run for 6 yds to the MIZ 28Similar
Q1 14:29
2ND & 4
OWN 28
+12
36.6%
Beau Pribula run for 12 yds to the MIZ 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:56
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
36.9%
Beau Pribula run for 4 yds to the MIZ 44Similar
Q1 13:21
2ND & 6
OWN 44
+7
37.2%
Ahmad Hardy run for 7 yds to the ALA 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:43
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+23
37.6%
Beau Pribula run for 23 yds to the ALA 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:10
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+26
38.9%
B. Pribula pass to B. Norfleet for 26 yds for a TD (R. Meyer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 2TD
13 plays · 78 yds · 5:5861% → 62%
Q1 12:03
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
38.6%
Jam Miller run for no gain to the ALA 22Similar
Q1 11:14
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+10
39.1%
Ty Simpson pass complete to Germie Bernard for a loss of 5 yards to the ALA 17 for a 1ST down Missouri Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Zion Young) to the ALA 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:46
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
39.4%
Jam Miller run for no gain to the ALA 32Similar
Q1 9:56
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+2
40.0%
Ty Simpson pass complete to Jam Miller for 2 yds to the ALA 34Similar
Q1 9:13
3RD & 8
OWN 34
+18
40.8%
Ty Simpson pass complete to Lotzeir Brooks for 18 yds to the MIZ 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:47
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+9
40.3%
Ty Simpson run for 9 yds to the MIZ 39Similar
Q1 8:09
2ND & 1
OPP 39
+21
40.7%
Ty Simpson pass complete to Josh Cuevas for 21 yds to the MIZ 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:36
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
40.7%
Ty Simpson pass incomplete to Lotzeir BrooksSimilar
Q1 7:28
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+5
40.9%
Jam Miller run for 5 yds to the MIZ 13Similar
Q1 7:06
3RD & 5
OPP 13
+5
41.4%
Missouri Penalty, Defensive Offside (Zion Young) to the MIZ 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
41.2%
Jam Miller run for 2 yds to the MIZ 6Similar
Q1 6:05
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
38.3%
Ty Simpson pass complete to Kevin Riley for 6 yds for a TD (Conor Talty KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:1840% → 40%
Q1 5:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
39.7%
Ahmad Hardy run for 3 yds to the MIZ 28Similar
Q1 5:23
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+3
40.0%
Ahmad Hardy run for 3 yds to the MIZ 31Similar
Q1 4:46
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
39.9%
Beau Pribula pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:39
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
39.7%
Connor Weselman punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Cole Adams at the ALA 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 4TD
13 plays · 67 yds · 4:3860% → 65%
Q1 4:29
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+10
39.8%
Ty Simpson pass complete to Germie Bernard for 10 yds to the ALA 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:10
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
39.3%
Kevin Riley run for 3 yds to the ALA 46Similar
Q1 3:32
2ND & 7
OWN 46
+15
39.4%
Simpson, Ty pass incomplete to Meadows, Derek, PENALTY MIZ unnecessary roughness (Burks Jr., Marvin) 15 yards to the MIZ39, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN ALA. Burks Jr., Marvin ejected for Targeting.Similar
Q1 3:18
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+7
39.3%
Ty Simpson pass complete to Isaiah Horton for 7 yds to the MIZ 32Similar
Q1 2:49
2ND & 3
OPP 32
+6
39.0%
Kevin Riley run for 6 yds to the MIZ 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:11
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+9
38.7%
Jam Miller run for 9 yds to the MIZ 17Similar
Q1 1:47
2ND & 1
OPP 17
0
39.1%
Kevin Riley run for no gain to the MIZ 17Similar
Q1 1:14
3RD & 1
OPP 17
+3
39.6%
Jam Miller run for 3 yds to the MIZ 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:36
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-5
39.3%
Simpson, Ty pass incomplete to Bernard, Germie, PENALTY ALA illegal motion 5 yards to the MIZ19, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 15
OPP 19
+3
39.5%
Ty Simpson pass complete to Jam Miller for 3 yds to the MIZ 16Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 12
OPP 16
0
39.5%
Ty Simpson pass incomplete to Ryan WilliamsSimilar
Q2 14:51
3RD & 12
OPP 16
+16
34.8%
Ty Simpson pass complete to Isaiah Horton for 16 yds for a TD (Conor Talty KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 5PUNT
8 plays · 14 yds · 2:4836% → 36%
Q2 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+1
36.4%
Ahmad Hardy run for 1 yd to the MIZ 22Similar
Q2 14:05
2ND & 9
OWN 22
+8
36.4%
Beau Pribula run for 8 yds to the MIZ 30Similar
Q2 13:26
3RD & 1
OWN 30
+9
36.8%
Ahmad Hardy run for 9 yds to the MIZ 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:55
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
37.1%
Beau Pribula pass incomplete to Kevin Coleman Jr.Similar
Q2 12:43
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+2
37.0%
Beau Pribula pass complete to Kevin Coleman Jr. for 2 yds to the MIZ 41Similar
Q2 12:07
3RD & 8
OWN 41
-6
36.6%
Beau Pribula sacked by Keon Keeley and LT Overton for a loss of 6 yards to the MIZ 35Similar
Q2 11:57
4TH & 14
OWN 35
0
35.6%
Connor Weselman punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Cole Adams at the ALA 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 6FG
9 plays · 40 yds · 4:4164% → 69%
Q2 11:51
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
35.8%
Ty Simpson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:44
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+6
35.9%
Jam Miller run for 6 yds to the ALA 36Similar
Q2 10:59
3RD & 4
OWN 36
+20
35.3%
Ty Simpson run for 20 yds to the MIZ 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:15
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+1
34.2%
Jam Miller run for 1 yd to the MIZ 43Similar
Q2 9:29
2ND & 9
OPP 43
+11
33.9%
Ty Simpson pass complete to Isaiah Horton for 11 yds to the MIZ 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:42
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+4
33.6%
Kevin Riley run for 4 yds to the MIZ 28Similar
Q2 8:35
2ND & 6
OPP 28
+2
33.5%
Kevin Riley run for 2 yds to the MIZ 26Similar
Q2 7:47
3RD & 4
OPP 26
-4
32.6%
Ty Simpson sacked by Khalil Jacobs for a loss of 4 yards to the MIZ 30Similar
Q2 7:10
4TH & 8
OPP 30
+46
30.7%
Conor Talty 46 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:2932% → 30%
Q2 7:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
31.7%
Ahmad Hardy run for 2 yds to the MIZ 27Similar
Q2 6:30
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
31.9%
Beau Pribula pass incomplete to Joshua ManningSimilar
Q2 5:44
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
30.6%
Beau Pribula run for no gain to the MIZ 27 Beau Pribula fumbled, forced by LT Overton, recovered by MIZ Brett NorfleetSimilar
Q2 5:34
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
30.2%
Connor Weselman punt for 30 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ALA 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:5671% → 69%
Q2 5:28
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+12
29.5%
Jam Miller run for 12 yds to the MIZ 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:45
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+6
29.1%
Jam Miller run for 6 yds to the MIZ 39Similar
Q2 4:22
2ND & 4
OPP 39
0
29.0%
Ty Simpson pass incomplete to Lotzeir BrooksSimilar
Q2 4:14
3RD & 4
OPP 39
-9
29.2%
Ty Simpson sacked by Damon Wilson II for a loss of 9 yards to the MIZ 48Similar
Q2 3:32
4TH & 13
OPP 48
+22
30.7%
Blake Doud punt for 27 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MIZ 21 Alabama Penalty, Illegal Shift (-5 Yards) to the MIZ 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 9END OF HALF
15 plays · 57 yds · 3:1331% → 35%
Q2 3:13
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+1
31.3%
Beau Pribula pass complete to Marquis Johnson for 1 yd to the MIZ 27Similar
Q2 2:42
2ND & 9
OWN 27
+39
30.6%
Jamal Roberts run for 39 yds to the ALA 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:21
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+6
34.0%
Jamal Roberts run for 6 yds to the ALA 28Similar
Q2 1:53
2ND & 4
OPP 28
+1
34.2%
Jamal Roberts run for 1 yd to the ALA 27Similar
Q2 1:43
3RD & 3
OPP 27
+2
31.8%
Ahmad Hardy run for 2 yds to the ALA 25 Ahmad Hardy fumbled, forced by Yhonzae Pierre, recovered by MIZSimilar
Q2 1:38
4TH & 1
OPP 25
+1
31.1%
Jamal Roberts run for 1 yd to the ALA 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:05
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
33.3%
Beau Pribula pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:00
2ND & 10
OPP 24
-10
33.5%
Pribula, Beau rush for 3 yards to the ALA21, PENALTY MIZ holding (Giudice, Dominick) 10 yards to the ALA34, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:40
2ND & 20
OPP 34
+17
32.6%
Beau Pribula pass complete to Joshua Manning for 17 yds to the ALA 17Similar
Q2 0:26
3RD & 3
OPP 17
0
31.4%
Beau Pribula run for no gain to the ALA 17Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 3
OPP 17
+35
35.2%
Robert Meyer 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 10FUMBLE
2 plays · -5 yds · 0:0069% → 69%
Q3 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-5
31.2%
Ty Simpson sacked by Zion Young for a loss of 5 yards to the ALA 19 Ty Simpson fumbled, forced by Zion Young, recovered by MIZ Damon Wilson II , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 11TD
3 plays · 19 yds · 1:2238% → 53%
Q3 14:40
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+11
37.6%
Ahmad Hardy run for 11 yds to the ALA 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
37.6%
Beau Pribula run for 3 yds to the ALA 5Similar
Q3 13:18
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
52.8%
Beau Pribula run for 5 yds for a TD (Robert Meyer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 12PUNT
7 plays · 22 yds · 2:4255% → 55%
Q3 13:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
44.6%
Ty Simpson pass complete to Germie Bernard for 15 yds to the ALA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
42.8%
Kevin Riley run for 1 yd to the ALA 41Similar
Q3 11:39
2ND & 9
OWN 41
+3
43.7%
Ty Simpson run for 3 yds to the ALA 44Similar
Q3 10:58
3RD & 6
OWN 44
+3
43.9%
Ty Simpson run for 3 yds to the ALA 47Similar
Q3 10:27
4TH & 3
OWN 47
0
45.5%
Blake Doud punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Kevin Coleman Jr. at the MIZ 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · 13 yds · 1:1150% → 50%
Q3 10:20
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+2
49.8%
Ahmad Hardy run for 2 yds to the MIZ 12Similar
Q3 9:40
2ND & 8
OWN 12
+11
50.0%
Beau Pribula pass complete to Marquis Johnson for 11 yds to the MIZ 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:20
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
50.6%
Beau Pribula pass incomplete to Brett NorfleetSimilar
Q3 9:09
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+5
50.4%
Connor Weselman punt for 37 yds , Cole Adams returns for 5 yds to the ALA 28 Alabama Penalty, Offensive Holding (Ivan Taylor) to the ALA 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 14FG
18 plays · 66 yds · 8:5154% → 61%
Q3 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
46.5%
Jam Miller run for 4 yds to the ALA 34Similar
Q3 8:14
2ND & 6
OWN 34
+10
45.7%
Ty Simpson pass complete to Jam Miller for 10 yds to the ALA 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:37
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+11
44.2%
Ty Simpson pass complete to Lotzeir Brooks for 11 yds to the MIZ 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:34
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
43.5%
Ty Simpson pass complete to Parker Brailsford for 2 yds to the MIZ 43Similar
Q3 6:10
2ND & 8
OPP 43
+11
43.6%
Jam Miller run for 11 yds to the MIZ 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:42
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+5
42.4%
Daniel Hill run for 5 yds to the MIZ 27Similar
Q3 5:00
2ND & 5
OPP 27
+4
41.8%
Daniel Hill run for 4 yds to the MIZ 23Similar
Q3 4:32
3RD & 1
OPP 23
+1
43.5%
Ty Simpson run for 1 yd to the MIZ 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:59
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-5
41.9%
Alabama Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the MIZ 27Similar
Q3 3:28
1ST & 15
OPP 27
+4
42.7%
Jam Miller run for 4 yds to the MIZ 23Similar
Q3 2:58
2ND & 11
OPP 23
+11
42.3%
Ty Simpson pass complete to Danny Lewis Jr. for 11 yds to the MIZ 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:41
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+7
42.1%
Jam Miller run for 7 yds to the MIZ 5Similar
Q3 2:22
2ND & 3
OPP 5
+2
42.1%
Jam Miller run for 2 yds to the MIZ 3Similar
Q3 1:25
3RD & 1
OPP 3
+2
44.0%
Kadyn Proctor run for 2 yds to the MIZ 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-4
42.3%
Ty Simpson run for a loss of 4 yards to the MIZ 5Similar
Q3 0:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
42.3%
Jam Miller run for 1 yd to the MIZ 4Similar
Q3 0:13
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
44.3%
Ty Simpson pass incomplete to Josh CuevasSimilar
Q3 0:09
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+22
38.8%
Conor Talty 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 15INT
6 plays · 18 yds · 1:4144% → 47%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
43.7%
Beau Pribula pass complete to Brett Norfleet for 5 yds to the MIZ 30Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+7
44.5%
Beau Pribula pass complete to Brett Norfleet for 7 yds to the MIZ 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:20
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
45.0%
Ahmad Hardy run for 5 yds to the MIZ 42Similar
Q4 13:55
2ND & 5
OWN 42
+1
48.0%
Ahmad Hardy run for 1 yd to the MIZ 43Similar
Q4 13:19
3RD & 4
OWN 43
0
46.8%
Beau Pribula pass intercepted Bray Hubbard return for no gain to the ALA 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 16MISSED FG
10 plays · 29 yds · 3:5163% → 65%
Q4 13:10
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
36.6%
Jam Miller run for 4 yds to the ALA 44Similar
Q4 12:45
2ND & 6
OWN 44
+6
36.5%
Jam Miller run for 6 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:52
1ST & 10
50
+7
33.6%
Ty Simpson pass complete to Josh Cuevas for 7 yds to the MIZ 43Similar
Q4 11:25
2ND & 3
OPP 43
+2
33.3%
Jam Miller run for 2 yds to the MIZ 41Similar
Q4 11:00
3RD & 1
OPP 41
0
33.6%
Jam Miller run for no gain to the MIZ 41Similar
Q4 10:23
4TH & 1
OPP 41
+10
33.4%
Ty Simpson pass complete to Jam Miller for 10 yds to the MIZ 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:06
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
29.3%
Ty Simpson pass incomplete to Josh CuevasSimilar
Q4 9:55
2ND & 10
OPP 31
0
28.7%
Ty Simpson pass complete to Lotzeir Brooks for no gain to the MIZ 31Similar
Q4 9:24
3RD & 10
OPP 31
0
30.6%
Ty Simpson pass incomplete to Germie BernardSimilar
Q4 9:19
4TH & 10
OPP 31
+49
34.6%
Conor Talty 49 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 17DOWNS
4 plays · 9 yds · 2:0542% → 38%
Q4 9:07
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-2
41.6%
Beau Pribula sacked by LT Overton for a loss of 2 yards to the MIZ 29Similar
Q4 8:20
2ND & 12
OWN 29
+1
40.6%
Beau Pribula pass complete to Ahmad Hardy for 1 yd to the MIZ 30Similar
Q4 7:30
3RD & 11
OWN 30
+7
38.9%
Beau Pribula pass complete to Jamal Roberts for 7 yds to the MIZ 37Similar
Q4 7:02
4TH & 4
OWN 37
+3
38.2%
Jamal Roberts run for 3 yds to the MIZ 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 18TD
8 plays · 40 yds · 3:3773% → 93%
Q4 6:53
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-7
27.5%
Ty Simpson sacked by Damon Wilson II for a loss of 7 yards to the MIZ 47Similar
Q4 6:05
2ND & 17
OPP 47
-7
26.3%
Ty Simpson pass complete to Kevin Riley for a loss of 7 yards to the ALA 46Similar
Q4 5:40
3RD & 24
OWN 46
+16
28.4%
Ty Simpson pass complete to Kevin Riley for 16 yds to the MIZ 38Similar
Q4 5:40
4TH & 8
OPP 38
+29
28.1%
Ty Simpson pass complete to Lotzeir Brooks for 29 yds to the MIZ 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
21.8%
Daniel Hill run for 2 yds to the MIZ 7Similar
Q4 3:54
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
0
20.7%
Ty Simpson pass incomplete to Germie BernardSimilar
Q4 3:54
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+6
22.3%
Ty Simpson pass complete to Danny Lewis Jr. for 6 yds to the MIZ 1Similar
Q4 3:16
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
7.3%
Ty Simpson pass complete to Daniel Hill for 1 yd for a TD (Conor Talty KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 19TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 1:257% → 45%
Q4 3:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
7.0%
Beau Pribula pass complete to Jamal Roberts for 16 yds to the MIZ 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:35
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+14
7.5%
Beau Pribula pass complete to Marquis Johnson for 14 yds to the ALA 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:15
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+1
8.3%
Beau Pribula pass complete to Ahmad Hardy for 1 yd to the ALA 44Similar
Q4 2:00
2ND & 9
OPP 44
+14
7.1%
Beau Pribula run for 14 yds to the ALA 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:55
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
9.2%
Beau Pribula pass incomplete to Jamal RobertsSimilar
Q4 1:51
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+27
9.0%
Beau Pribula pass complete to Donovan Olugbode for 27 yds to the ALA 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
44.8%
Beau Pribula pass complete to Donovan Olugbode for 3 yds for a TD (Robert Meyer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 20PUNT
9 plays · 0 yds · 0:1889% → 88%
Q4 1:35
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+3
11.5%
Daniel Hill run for 3 yds to the MIZ 38Similar
Q4 1:30
2ND & 7
OPP 38
+4
10.4%
Daniel Hill run for 4 yds to the MIZ 34Similar
Q4 1:25
3RD & 3
OPP 34
-2
10.2%
Daniel Hill run for a loss of 2 yards to the MIZ 36Similar
Q4 1:25
4TH & 5
OPP 36
-5
11.9%
Alabama Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the MIZ 41Similar
Q4 1:17
4TH & 10
OPP 41
+8
12.4%
Blake Doud punt for 31 yds , Kevin Coleman Jr. returns for 8 yds to the MIZ 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 21INT
7 plays · 29 yds · 0:3423% → 21%
Q4 1:11
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
23.1%
Beau Pribula pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:03
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+4
21.7%
Beau Pribula pass complete to Jamal Roberts for 4 yds to the MIZ 22Similar
Q4 0:58
3RD & 6
OWN 22
0
20.7%
Beau Pribula pass incomplete to Marquis JohnsonSimilar
Q4 0:52
4TH & 6
OWN 22
+25
18.0%
Beau Pribula pass complete to Donovan Olugbode for 25 yds to the MIZ 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:48
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
23.3%
Beau Pribula pass incomplete to Jamal RobertsSimilar
Q4 0:43
2ND & 10
OWN 47
0
22.6%
Beau Pribula pass incomplete to Marquis JohnsonSimilar
Q4 0:37
3RD & 10
OWN 47
0
20.6%
Beau Pribula pass intercepted Dijon Lee Jr. return for no gain to the ALA 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 22END OF GAME
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-1
5.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the ALA 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 1:40
Beau Pribula pass complete to Donovan Olugbode for 3 yds for a TD (Robert Meyer KICK)
+35.9
TD · Q3 13:18
Beau Pribula run for 5 yds for a TD (Robert Meyer KICK)
+15.2
TD · Q4 3:16
Ty Simpson pass complete to Daniel Hill for 1 yd for a TD (Conor Talty KICK)
-15
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com