2025 · Week 7 · Oct 11, 2025 · Vaught-Hemingway Stadium
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Win probability · MISS
modelMISS aheadWSU aheadconfidence bandkey playMISS scoreWSU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 2:26 · Kewan Lacy run for 4 yds to the WSU 40 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
This game in five plays
- TD · Q3 10:19: Kirby Vorhees run for 46 yds for a TD (Jack Stevens KICK) — WSU win probability +9.1 pts (now 23%) (top driver: WSU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 0:32: Trinidad Chambliss run for 17 yds for a TD (Lucas Carneiro KICK) — MISS win probability +13.7 pts (now 84%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
- TD · Q4 6:51: Trinidad Chambliss pass complete to Cayden Lee for 35 yds for a TD (Lucas Carneiro KICK) — MISS win probability +11.1 pts (now 94%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
- TD · Q4 2:43: Zevi Eckhaus pass complete to Tony Freeman for 19 yds for a TD (Jack Stevens KICK) — WSU win probability +24.1 pts (now 32%) (top driver: WSU has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q4 2:29: Timeout Ole Miss, clock 02:29 — MISS win probability +17.8 pts (now 90%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
MISS made the numbers' call on 5 of 7WSU made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
- Q1 10:47MISS 4th & 3 at WSU 4, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 96.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call96.7%45% to convertField goal96.7%−0.193% to makePunt96.2%−0.5average punt
- Q1 8:35WSU 4th & 6 at WSU 8, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 3.7% before the snapGo for it3.6%−<0.137% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call3.7%average punt
- Q1 6:31MISS 4th & 11 at WSU 29, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 95.8% before the snapGo for it95.8%−0.126% to convertField goalTheir call95.8%58% to makePunt95.5%−0.3average punt
- Q2 10:10WSU 4th & 5 at MISS 36, up 7Close callKicked a field goal · 10.5% before the snapGo for it10.4%42% to convertField goalTheir call10.2%−0.242% to makePunt10.1%−0.3average punt
- Q2 6:19MISS 4th & 4 at WSU 23, down 7Close callKicked a field goal · 87.1% before the snapGo for it87.0%47% to convertField goalTheir call86.8%−0.270% to makePunt84.1%−2.9average punt
- Q2 3:01WSU 4th & 13 at MISS 47, up 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.6% before the snapGo for it13.1%−0.421% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call13.4%average punt
- Q3 8:37MISS 4th & 11 at MISS 24, down 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.6% before the snapGo for it74.9%−2.525% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call77.4%average punt
- Q3 5:00WSU 4th & 7 at WSU 48, up 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.4% before the snapGo for it29.8%−0.537% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call30.3%average punt
- Q3 2:26MISS 4th & 1 at WSU 44, down 4Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 68.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call68.3%70% to convertField goal62.6%−5.727% to makePunt64.4%−3.9average punt
- Q4 13:28WSU 4th & 3 at WSU 32, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.9% before the snapGo for it18.6%−0.552% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call19.1%average punt
- Q4 12:14MISS 4th & 6 at MISS 49, up 3Close callPunted · 81.5% before the snapGo for it82.0%40% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call81.8%−0.2average punt
- Q4 8:22WSU 4th & 17 at WSU 16, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.6% before the snapGo for it16.3%−3.513% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call19.9%average punt
- Q4 3:56WSU 4th & 8 at MISS 39, down 10Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 7.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call6.9%34% to convertField goal6.1%−0.836% to makePunt6.5%−0.4average punt
- Q4 1:09MISS 4th & 11 at WSU 49, up 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.7% before the snapGo for it85.3%−2.426% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call87.7%average punt
- Q4 0:15WSU 4th & 14 at WSU 6, down 3Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 16.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call8.9%16% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt7.9%−1.0average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MISS made the numbers' call on 3 of 3WSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
- Q1 1:58WSU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call6.2%97% to makeGo for two6.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:31MISS Touchdown, up 2 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call89.8%97% to makeGo for two89.7%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 10:19WSU Touchdown, up 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call21.4%97% to makeGo for two21.3%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 0:32MISS Touchdown, up 2 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call80.8%97% to makeGo for two80.6%−0.245% to convert
- Q4 6:51MISS Touchdown, up 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call93.7%97% to makeGo for two93.2%−0.545% to convert
- Q4 2:43WSU Touchdown, down 4 before the tryNumbers favored go for two by 2.3 ptsKicked · madeKickTheir call13.8%−2.397% to makeGo for two16.1%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartMISSDrive 1DOWNS13 plays · 71 yds · 4:0598% → 97%
Q1 13:40
1ST & 10
50
+7
97.5%
Trinidad Chambliss pass complete to De'Zhaun Stribling for 7 yds to the WSU 43Similar
Q1 13:08
2ND & 3
OPP 43
+13
97.4%
Trinidad Chambliss pass complete to Cayden Lee for 13 yds to the WSU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:50
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+19
97.4%
Trinidad Chambliss pass complete to De'Zhaun Stribling for 19 yds to the WSU 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 2PUNT5 plays · 4 yds · 2:083% → 3%
MISSDrive 3MISSED FG7 plays · 26 yds · 1:5497% → 96%
WSUDrive 4TD9 plays · 71 yds · 4:264% → 6%
Q1 5:07
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
95.8%
Zevi Eckhaus pass complete to Tony Freeman for no gain to the WSU 43Similar
Q1 4:44
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+9
95.7%
Zevi Eckhaus pass complete to Joshua Meredith for 9 yds to the MISS 48Similar
Q1 2:27
2ND & 9
OPP 44
+18
94.9%
Zevi Eckhaus pass complete to Leon Neal Jr. for 18 yds to the MISS 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:58
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+26
93.6%
Zevi Eckhaus pass complete to Landon Wright for 26 yds for a TD (Jack Stevens KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 5FUMBLE13 plays · 38 yds · 4:0294% → 92%
Q1 1:08
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+10
93.5%
Trinidad Chambliss pass complete to Deuce Alexander for 10 yds to the MISS 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:25
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+10
93.4%
(00:31) No Huddle-Shotgun Chambliss,Trinidad pass intercepted by Large,Tucker at WSU24, End Of Play PENALTY WSU Holding (Colson,Jamorri) 10 yards from OM36 to OM46, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:49
2ND & 3
OPP 47
+8
93.5%
Trinidad Chambliss pass complete to Deuce Alexander for 8 yds to the WSU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:21
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+12
93.3%
Trinidad Chambliss pass complete to De'Zhaun Stribling for 12 yds to the WSU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:02
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+1
93.4%
Trinidad Chambliss pass complete to De'Zhaun Stribling for 1 yd to the WSU 26Similar
Q2 13:25
2ND & 9
OPP 26
+8
93.1%
Trinidad Chambliss pass complete to Cayden Lee for 8 yds to the WSU 18Similar
Q2 13:07
3RD & 1
OPP 18
-10
92.8%
(13:10) No Huddle-Shotgun Lacy,Kewan rush middle for 13 yards gain to the WSU05 (Humphrey,Colby; Fitzmaurice,Donovan) PENALTY OM Holding (Pounds,Diego) 10 yards from WSU18 to WSU28. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:47
3RD & 11
OPP 28
-9
92.4%
Trinidad Chambliss sacked by Isaac Terrell for a loss of 9 yards to the WSU 37 Trinidad Chambliss fumbled, recovered by WSU Bryson Lamb , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 6MISSED FG5 plays · 27 yds · 2:069% → 10%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 7FG9 plays · 41 yds · 3:4491% → 90%
WSUDrive 8PUNT10 plays · 28 yds · 3:0711% → 13%
Q2 6:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
89.1%
Zevi Eckhaus pass complete to Tony Freeman for 12 yds to the WSU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:35
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
88.3%
Zevi Eckhaus pass complete to Joshua Meredith for 3 yds to the WSU 40Similar
Q2 4:16
2ND & 10
OPP 44
-10
86.7%
Washington State Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the WSU 48Similar
Q2 3:45
2ND & 18
OWN 48
+5
87.1%
Zevi Eckhaus pass complete to Leo Pulalasi for 5 yds to the MISS 47Similar
Q2 3:01
4TH & 13
OPP 47
0
86.9%
Ryan Harris punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Harrison Wallace III at the MISS 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 9TD14 plays · 87 yds · 2:2087% → 91%
Q2 1:19
2ND & 9
OWN 48
+6
86.1%
Trinidad Chambliss pass complete to Kewan Lacy for 6 yds to the WSU 46Similar
Q2 1:12
3RD & 3
OPP 46
+6
84.8%
Trinidad Chambliss pass complete to Dae'Quan Wright for 6 yds to the WSU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:53
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+30
84.9%
Trinidad Chambliss pass complete to Dae'Quan Wright for 30 yds to the WSU 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:31
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
90.9%
Trinidad Chambliss pass complete to Dae'Quan Wright for 2 yds for a TD (Lucas Carneiro KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 10END OF HALF4 plays · 11 yds · 0:239% → 10%
Q2 0:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
90.9%
(00:29) Shotgun Eckhaus,Zevi sacked for loss of 5 yards to the WSU20 (Franklin,Kam, Yates,Jaden) PENALTY OM Face Mask (Franklin,Kam) 15 yards from WSU25 to WSU40, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 40
-4
90.2%
Zevi Eckhaus sacked by Kam Franklin for a loss of 4 yards to the WSU 36 Zevi Eckhaus fumbled, recovered by WSU Jaylin Caldwell , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 11TD10 plays · 75 yds · 4:3410% → 23%
Q3 13:33
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
88.8%
Zevi Eckhaus pass complete to Leo Pulalasi for 4 yds to the WSU 41Similar
Q3 12:56
2ND & 6
OWN 41
-7
87.8%
Zevi Eckhaus pass complete to Tony Freeman for 3 yds to the WSU 44 Washington State Penalty, Offensive Holding (Trey Leckner) to the WSU 34Similar
Q3 12:20
2ND & 13
OWN 34
+5
88.7%
Zevi Eckhaus pass complete to Landon Wright for 5 yds to the WSU 39Similar
Q3 11:43
3RD & 8
OWN 39
-5
87.9%
(11:49) Shotgun Eckhaus,Zevi pass complete deep middle to Freeman,Tony caught at OM25, for 0 yards to the WSU39 PENALTY WSU Illegal Formation 5 yards from WSU39 to WSU34. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 11:15
3RD & 13
OWN 34
+15
88.7%
(11:18) Shotgun Eckhaus,Zevi pass incomplete short right to Meredith,Joshua thrown to WSU40 PENALTY OM Roughing The Passer (Womack,Da'Shawn) 15 yards from WSU34 to WSU49, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 11:03
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+5
86.4%
Zevi Eckhaus pass complete to Leo Pulalasi for 5 yds to the MISS 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 12PUNT5 plays · -1 yds · 1:3580% → 77%
Q3 9:23
3RD & 4
OWN 31
-7
78.8%
Trinidad Chambliss sacked by Isaac Terrell for a loss of 7 yards to the MISS 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 13PUNT7 plays · 15 yds · 3:2623% → 30%
Q3 6:19
2ND & 15
OWN 40
+6
71.9%
Zevi Eckhaus pass complete to Leon Neal Jr. for 6 yds to the WSU 46Similar
Q3 5:25
3RD & 9
OWN 46
+2
69.6%
Zevi Eckhaus pass complete to Kirby Vorhees for 2 yds to the WSU 48Similar
Q3 5:00
4TH & 7
OWN 48
0
70.0%
Ryan Harris punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Harrison Wallace III at the MISS 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 14TD10 plays · 82 yds · 4:1571% → 84%
Q3 4:47
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+18
71.3%
Trinidad Chambliss pass complete to Deuce Alexander for 18 yds to the MISS 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:27
2ND & 10
OWN 47
-6
71.4%
Trinidad Chambliss sacked by Darrion Dalton for a loss of 6 yards to the MISS 41Similar
Q3 2:42
3RD & 16
OWN 41
+15
66.2%
Trinidad Chambliss pass complete to De'Zhaun Stribling for 15 yds to the WSU 44Similar
Q3 0:32
3RD & 10
OPP 17
+17
84.0%
Trinidad Chambliss run for 17 yds for a TD (Lucas Carneiro KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 15PUNT5 plays · 7 yds · 1:3219% → 18%
Q4 14:51
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+9
81.4%
Zevi Eckhaus pass complete to Tony Freeman for 9 yds to the WSU 34Similar
Q4 13:49
3RD & 1
OWN 34
-2
79.8%
Kirby Vorhees run for a loss of 2 yards to the WSU 32 Kirby Vorhees fumbled, recovered by WSU Kirby VorheesSimilar
Q4 13:28
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
81.6%
Ryan Harris punt for 23 yds , Harrison Wallace III returns for no gain to the MISS 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 16PUNT4 plays · 4 yds · 1:0685% → 82%
Q4 12:14
4TH & 6
OWN 49
+4
81.5%
Oscar Bird punt for 43 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the WSU 12 , Tony Freeman returns for 4 yds to the WSU 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 17PUNT7 plays · 4 yds · 3:4320% → 21%
Q4 10:46
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-5
78.7%
(10:50) Shotgun Eckhaus,Zevi pass complete short right to Meredith,Joshua caught at WSU42, for 0 yards to the WSU23 PENALTY WSU Illegal Formation 5 yards from WSU23 to WSU18. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 10:13
1ST & 15
OWN 18
+3
78.4%
Zevi Eckhaus pass complete to Joshua Meredith for 3 yds to the WSU 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 18TD4 plays · 60 yds · 1:2282% → 94%
Q4 6:51
3RD & 8
OPP 35
+35
94.2%
Trinidad Chambliss pass complete to Cayden Lee for 35 yds for a TD (Lucas Carneiro KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 19TD13 plays · 75 yds · 4:017% → 32%
Q4 6:08
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+17
92.2%
Zevi Eckhaus pass complete to Jeremiah Noga for 17 yds to the MISS 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:51
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+6
91.7%
Zevi Eckhaus pass complete to Tony Freeman for 6 yds to the MISS 35Similar
Q4 5:02
3RD & 4
OPP 35
-10
90.8%
(05:05) Shotgun Vorhees,Kirby rush left for 1 yard gain to the OM34 (Ryan,Sage) PENALTY WSU Holding (Tripp,Ashton) 10 yards from OM35 to OM45. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 4:29
3RD & 14
OPP 45
+6
93.1%
Zevi Eckhaus pass complete to Joshua Meredith for 6 yds to the MISS 39Similar
Q4 3:56
4TH & 8
OPP 39
+10
92.1%
(03:58) Shotgun Eckhaus,Zevi pass incomplete short middle to Ganashamoorthy,Branden thrown to OM29 QB hurried by Franklin,Kam PENALTY OM Holding (Braxton,Jaylon) 10 yards from OM39 to OM29, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 3:49
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+12
90.1%
Zevi Eckhaus pass complete to Tony Freeman for 12 yds to the MISS 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:43
3RD & 12
OPP 19
+19
68.4%
Zevi Eckhaus pass complete to Tony Freeman for 19 yds for a TD (Jack Stevens KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 20PUNT10 plays · 26 yds · 1:2087% → 86%
Q4 2:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+27
86.9%
Trinidad Chambliss pass complete to Dae'Quan Wright for 42 yds to the WSU 33 for a 1ST down Ole Miss Penalty, (-15 Yards) to the WSU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 21END OF GAME7 plays · 52 yds · 1:0023% → 22%
Q4 0:39
3RD & 4
OWN 16
-10
79.4%
Zevi Eckhaus sacked by Will Echoles for a loss of 10 yards to the WSU 6Similar
Q4 0:15
4TH & 14
OWN 6
+16
80.6%
Zevi Eckhaus pass complete to Tony Freeman for 16 yds to the WSU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:03
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+14
78.8%
(00:07) No Huddle-Shotgun Eckhaus,Zevi pass incomplete deep middle to Neal Jr.,Leon thrown to OM29 PENALTY OM Pass Interference (Gushiken,Kapena) 14 yards from WSU22 to WSU36, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+26
77.6%
Zevi Eckhaus pass complete to Joshua Meredith for 26 yds to the MISS 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 2:43
Zevi Eckhaus pass complete to Tony Freeman for 19 yds for a TD (Jack Stevens KICK)
-24.1
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+22.4
KEY PLAY · Q4 2:29
Timeout Ole Miss, clock 02:29
+17.8