MSST
Mississippi State 9 at Texas A&M 31
TA&M2025 · Week 6 · Oct 4, 2025 · Kyle Field
Speed4x
Win probability · TA&M
modelTA&M aheadMSST aheadconfidence bandkey play
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MSST · Drive 1PUNT · 6 plays · 3 yds
Q1 15:00
Randy Bond kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
74.4%
0.0
Q1 15:00
Fluff Bothwell run for 13 yds to the MSST 38 for a 1ST down
71.3%
-3.1
Q1 14:41
Blake Shapen sacked by Daymion Sanford for a loss of 6 yards to the MSST 32
69.6%
-1.7
Q1 14:15
Fluff Bothwell run for 3 yds to the MSST 35
70.3%
+0.8
Q1 13:49
Blake Shapen sacked by Cashius Howell for a loss of 7 yards to the MSST 28
70.3%
0.0
Q1 13:16
Ethan Pulliam punt for no gain , KC Concepcion returns for no gain to the TA&M 28 Texas A&M Penalty, Offensive holding (Jayvon Thomas) to the TA&M 15
70.3%
0.0
TA&M · Drive 2PUNT · 10 plays · 31 yds
Q1 13:08
Le'Veon Moss run for no gain to the TA&M 15 Texas A&M Penalty, Offensive holding (Ar'maj Reed-Adams) to the TA&M 8
74.2%
+3.9
Q1 12:50
Marcel Reed pass complete to KC Concepcion for 12 yds to the TA&M 20
74.2%
0.0
Q1 12:13
Texas A&M Penalty, substitution infraction (-5 Yards) to the TA&M 15
74.2%
0.0
Q1 12:08
Marcel Reed run for 9 yds to the TA&M 24
74.2%
0.0
Q1 11:23
Le'Veon Moss run for 6 yds to the TA&M 30 for a 1ST down
74.2%
0.0
Q1 10:53
KC Concepcion run for 16 yds to the TA&M 46 for a 1ST down
72.9%
-1.4
Q1 10:29
Marcel Reed pass incomplete to Le'Veon Moss
73.6%
+0.7
Q1 10:26
Marcel Reed pass incomplete to Theo Melin Öhrström
73.6%
0.0
Q1 10:21
Marcel Reed pass incomplete to Ashton Bethel-Roman
73.4%
-0.2
Q1 10:13
Tyler White punt for 43 yds
73.1%
-0.3
MSST · Drive 3FG · 16 plays · 22 yds
Q1 10:05
Blake Shapen pass complete to Ayden Williams for 3 yds to the MSST 14
68.9%
-4.3
Q1 9:44
Blake Shapen pass complete to Brenen Thompson for 10 yds to the MSST 24 for a 1ST down
68.9%
0.0
Q1 9:24
Davon Booth run for 2 yds to the MSST 26
69.1%
+0.3
Q1 9:03
Blake Shapen pass complete to Anthony Evans III for 7 yds to the MSST 33
66.7%
-2.4
Q1 8:41
Davon Booth run for 22 yds to the TA&M 45 for a 1ST down
68.5%
+1.8
Q1 8:24
Blake Shapen pass complete to Anthony Evans III for 7 yds to the TA&M 38
66.6%
-1.9
Q1 7:50
Fluff Bothwell run for 8 yds to the TA&M 30 for a 1ST down
66.1%
-0.5
Q1 7:34
Fluff Bothwell run for 6 yds to the TA&M 24
66.1%
0.0
Q1 7:13
Fluff Bothwell run for 7 yds to the TA&M 17 for a 1ST down
66.1%
0.0
Q1 6:35
Blake Shapen pass complete to Davon Booth for 9 yds to the TA&M 8
66.1%
0.0
Q1 6:12
Davon Booth run for 2 yds to the TA&M 6 for a 1ST down
63.1%
-3.0
Q1 5:41
Davon Booth run for 4 yds to the TA&M 2
62.9%
-0.2
Q1 5:10
Fluff Bothwell run for 1 yd to the TA&M 1
62.6%
-0.3
Q1 4:36
Mississippi State Penalty, false start (Luke Work) to the TA&M 6
62.6%
0.0
Q1 4:31
Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Ayden Williams
62.9%
+0.3
Q1 4:21
Kyle Ferrie 24 Yd Field Goal
62.0%
-1.0
TA&M · Drive 4PUNT · 5 plays · 1 yds
Q1 4:21
Kyle Ferrie kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
63.0%
+1.0
Q1 4:21
Marcel Reed pass incomplete to Mario Craver
68.3%
+5.3
Q1 4:15
Rueben Owens II run for 1 yd to the TA&M 26
68.3%
0.0
Q1 3:35
Marcel Reed pass incomplete to Mario Craver
68.2%
-0.2
Q1 3:28
Tyler White punt for 50 yds
68.2%
0.0
MSST · Drive 5PUNT · 4 plays · -1 yds
Q1 3:21
Blake Shapen run for 1 yd to the MSST 25
63.2%
-4.9
Q1 3:04
Ricky Johnson run for a loss of 7 yards to the MSST 18
63.2%
0.0
Q1 2:18
Fluff Bothwell run for 5 yds to the MSST 23
62.7%
-0.5
Q1 1:46
Ethan Pulliam punt for 61 yds
61.7%
-1.0
TA&M · Drive 6DOWNS · 17 plays · 82 yds
Q1 1:33
Marcel Reed pass complete to Mario Craver for 8 yds to the TA&M 24
67.1%
+5.4
Q1 1:06
Le'Veon Moss run for 5 yds to the TA&M 29 for a 1ST down
67.1%
0.0
Q1 0:36
Marcel Reed pass incomplete to KC Concepcion
66.8%
-0.4
Q1 0:30
Rueben Owens II run for 4 yds to the TA&M 33
66.8%
0.0
Q2 15:00
Marcel Reed run for 3 yds to the MSST 36 for a 1ST down Mississippi State Penalty, personal foul (Tyler Lockhart) to the MSST 49 for a 1ST down
66.7%
-0.1
Q2 14:44
Rueben Owens II run for 6 yds to the MSST 43
70.2%
+3.5
Q2 14:12
Rueben Owens II run for 5 yds to the MSST 38 for a 1ST down
69.7%
-0.4
Q2 13:35
Marcel Reed pass complete to Terry Bussey for 13 yds to the MSST 25 for a 1ST down
69.7%
0.0
Q2 12:49
Rueben Owens II run for 8 yds to the MSST 17
69.7%
0.0
Q2 12:11
Le'Veon Moss run for 4 yds to the MSST 13 for a 1ST down
69.7%
0.0
Q2 11:39
KC Concepcion run for 6 yds to the MSST 7
69.6%
-0.1
Q2 11:11
Le'Veon Moss run for 2 yds to the MSST 5
69.6%
0.0
Q2 10:30
Nate Boerkircher run for 3 yds to the MSST 2 for a 1ST down
69.4%
-0.2
Q2 9:46
Le'Veon Moss run for 1 yd to the MSST 1
67.8%
-1.6
Q2 9:11
Le'Veon Moss run for no gain to the MSST 1
67.8%
0.0
Q2 8:26
Rueben Owens II run for no gain to the MSST 1
67.3%
-0.5
Q2 8:13
Rueben Owens II run for a loss of 1 yard to the MSST 2
65.1%
-2.3
MSST · Drive 7PUNT · 4 plays · 3 yds
Q2 8:07
Fluff Bothwell run for 1 yd to the MSST 3
58.7%
-6.3
Q2 7:28
Fluff Bothwell run for 2 yds to the MSST 5
58.4%
-0.4
Q2 6:48
Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Anthony Evans III
58.4%
0.0
Q2 6:41
Ethan Pulliam punt for 53 yds , KC Concepcion returns for 18 yds to the MSST 23 Texas A&M Penalty, Offensive holding (Jordan Shaw) to the 50 yard line
57.9%
-0.5
TA&M · Drive 8INT · 2 plays · 4 yds
Q2 6:26
Rueben Owens II run for 4 yds to the MSST 46
63.4%
+5.5
Q2 5:48
Kelley Jones return for no gain to the MSST 27
64.3%
+0.9
MSST · Drive 9INT · 5 plays · 29 yds
Q2 5:38
Davon Booth run for 3 yds to the MSST 30
57.5%
-6.8
Q2 5:21
Davon Booth run for 1 yd to the MSST 31
57.5%
0.0
Q2 4:49
Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Brenen Thompson, broken up by Cashius Howell for a 1ST down Texas A&M Penalty, roughing passer (DJ Hicks) to the MSST 46 for a 1ST down
57.5%
0.0
Q2 4:45
Davon Booth run for 10 yds to the TA&M 44 for a 1ST down
55.8%
-1.7
Q2 4:23
Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Seydou Traore, broken up by Cashius Howell
55.8%
0.0
TA&M · Drive 10TD · 7 plays · 64 yds
Q2 4:14
Texas A&M Penalty, false start (Lamont Rogers) to the TA&M 31
62.5%
+6.7
Q2 4:13
Rueben Owens II run for 7 yds to the TA&M 38
62.5%
0.0
Q2 3:49
Rueben Owens II run for 6 yds to the TA&M 44
62.4%
-0.1
Q2 3:06
Rueben Owens II run for 3 yds to the TA&M 47 for a 1ST down
62.4%
0.0
Q2 2:23
Marcel Reed pass incomplete to Ashton Bethel-Roman for a 1ST down Mississippi State Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Kelley Jones) to the MSST 38 for a 1ST down
60.6%
-1.8
Q2 2:15
Rueben Owens II run for 4 yds to the MSST 34
62.5%
+1.8
Q2 1:51
KC Concepcion 34 Yd pass from Marcel Reed (Randy Bond Kick)
78.5%
+16.1
MSST · Drive 11PUNT · 5 plays · 0 yds
Q2 1:51
Randy Bond kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
77.5%
-1.0
Q2 1:50
Blake Shapen sacked by Cashius Howell for a loss of 12 yards to the MSST 13
74.5%
-3.0
Q2 1:41
Blake Shapen run for 3 yds to the MSST 16
74.5%
0.0
Q2 1:38
Blake Shapen pass complete to Seydou Traore for 9 yds to the MSST 25
74.5%
0.0
Q2 1:32
Ethan Pulliam punt for 57 yds , KC Concepcion returns for 4 yds to the TA&M 22
74.5%
0.0
TA&M · Drive 12END OF HALF · 3 plays · -1 yds
Q2 1:23
Marcel Reed pass complete to Mario Craver for 4 yds to the TA&M 26
77.8%
+3.3
Q2 0:51
Texas A&M Penalty, false start (Ar'maj Reed-Adams) to the TA&M 21
77.5%
-0.3
Q2 0:35
Marcel Reed run for 6 yds to the MSST 35
77.6%
+0.1
TA&M · Drive 13PUNT · 5 plays · -2 yds
Q3 15:00
Kyle Ferrie kickoff for 65 yds , Terry Bussey return for 13 yds to the TA&M 13
72.7%
-4.9
Q3 14:53
Rueben Owens II run for 2 yds to the TA&M 15
76.2%
+3.5
Q3 14:22
Marcel Reed pass incomplete to KC Concepcion
76.2%
0.0
Q3 14:18
Marcel Reed sacked by Kalvin Dinkins for a loss of 4 yards to the TA&M 11
76.2%
0.0
Q3 13:38
Tyler White punt for 54 yds
75.4%
-0.7
MSST · Drive 14PUNT · 6 plays · 13 yds
Q3 13:25
Fluff Bothwell run for 8 yds to the MSST 43
72.4%
-3.0
Q3 13:03
Fluff Bothwell run for 4 yds to the MSST 47 for a 1ST down
71.3%
-1.1
Q3 12:43
Fluff Bothwell run for a loss of 1 yard to the MSST 46
70.7%
-0.7
Q3 12:15
Fluff Bothwell run for 4 yds to the 50 yard line
70.7%
0.0
Q3 11:48
Blake Shapen pass complete to Davon Booth for a loss of 2 yards to the MSST 48
70.2%
-0.5
Q3 11:13
Nathan Tiyce punt for 35 yds
70.2%
0.0
TA&M · Drive 15PUNT · 9 plays · 40 yds
Q3 11:06
Marcel Reed pass complete to Mario Craver for 6 yds to the TA&M 23
77.0%
+6.7
Q3 10:47
Marcel Reed pass complete to Nate Boerkircher for 7 yds to the TA&M 30 for a 1ST down
77.0%
0.0
Q3 10:17
Rueben Owens II run for 7 yds to the TA&M 37
76.7%
-0.3
Q3 9:38
Marcel Reed pass complete to Rueben Owens II for 19 yds to the MSST 44 for a 1ST down
77.0%
+0.4
Q3 9:12
Texas A&M Penalty, false start (Dametrious Crownover) to the MSST 49
77.4%
+0.4
Q3 9:01
Le'Veon Moss run for 5 yds to the MSST 44
77.4%
0.0
Q3 8:20
Le'Veon Moss run for 1 yd to the MSST 43
76.0%
-1.4
Q3 7:41
Marcel Reed pass incomplete to Mario Craver
76.1%
+0.1
Q3 7:35
Tyler White punt for 35 yds
75.6%
-0.6
MSST · Drive 16PUNT · 4 plays · 9 yds
Q3 7:29
Blake Shapen pass complete to Ayden Williams for 7 yds to the MSST 15
71.4%
-4.1
Q3 7:06
Blake Shapen run for a loss of 8 yards to the MSST 7 Blake Shapen fumbled, recovered by MSST Davon Booth
71.4%
0.0
Q3 6:30
Blake Shapen pass complete to Anthony Evans III for 10 yds to the MSST 17
69.8%
-1.6
Q3 5:49
Ethan Pulliam punt for 58 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TA&M 38 , KC Concepcion returns for 13 yds to the TA&M 38
69.8%
0.0
TA&M · Drive 17TD · 5 plays · 62 yds
Q3 5:38
Rueben Owens II run for 17 yds to the MSST 45 for a 1ST down
74.2%
+4.4
Q3 5:04
Marcel Reed pass complete to Mario Craver for 42 yds to the MSST 3 for a 1ST down
73.0%
-1.2
Q3 4:12
Rueben Owens II run for 1 yd to the MSST 2
71.6%
-1.4
Q3 3:40
Marcel Reed pass incomplete to KC Concepcion, broken up by Kelley Jones
71.6%
0.0
Q3 3:30
KC Concepcion 2 Yd pass from Marcel Reed (Randy Bond Kick)
95.6%
+24.0
MSST · Drive 18PUNT · 5 plays · 5 yds
Q3 3:30
Randy Bond kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
95.4%
-0.1
Q3 3:30
Fluff Bothwell run for a loss of 1 yard to the MSST 24
89.5%
-5.9
Q3 3:03
Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Brenen Thompson
89.5%
0.0
Q3 2:58
Blake Shapen pass complete to Anthony Evans III for 6 yds to the MSST 30
89.5%
0.0
Q3 2:12
Ethan Pulliam punt for 49 yds
89.5%
0.0
TA&M · Drive 19TD · 10 plays · 79 yds
Q3 2:06
Jamarion Morrow run for 3 yds to the TA&M 24
95.4%
+5.9
Q3 1:32
Jamarion Morrow run for 23 yds to the TA&M 47 for a 1ST down
95.4%
0.0
Q3 1:02
Jamarion Morrow run for 1 yd to the TA&M 48
95.5%
0.0
Q3 0:28
Marcel Reed pass complete to KC Concepcion for 13 yds to the MSST 39 for a 1ST down
95.5%
0.0
Q4 15:00
Marcel Reed pass complete to Mario Craver for 3 yds to the MSST 36
95.6%
+0.1
Q4 14:20
Marcel Reed pass complete to Mario Craver for 17 yds to the MSST 19 for a 1ST down
95.6%
+0.1
Q4 13:46
Le'Veon Moss run for 3 yds to the MSST 16
95.5%
-0.1
Q4 13:08
Le'Veon Moss run for 6 yds to the MSST 10
95.2%
-0.3
Q4 12:22
Le'Veon Moss run for 3 yds to the MSST 7 for a 1ST down
95.4%
+0.2
Q4 11:38
Marcel Reed 7 Yd Run (Randy Bond Kick)
98.8%
+3.4
MSST · Drive 20FUMBLE · 2 plays · 0 yds
Q4 11:38
Randy Bond kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
98.8%
0.0
Q4 11:38
Blake Shapen pass complete to Anthony Evans III for 11 yds Blake Shapen fumbled, recovered by TA&M Dalton Brooks
96.5%
-2.3
TA&M · Drive 21TD · 4 plays · 24 yds
Q4 11:25
Rueben Owens II run for 4 yds to the MSST 20
98.8%
+2.3
Q4 10:43
Rueben Owens II run for 4 yds to the MSST 16
98.8%
0.0
Q4 9:56
Marcel Reed run for 9 yds to the MSST 7 for a 1ST down
98.9%
0.0
Q4 9:13
Mario Craver 7 Yd Run (Randy Bond Kick)
99.5%
+0.6
MSST · Drive 22TD · 5 plays · 75 yds
Q4 9:13
Randy Bond kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
99.5%
0.0
Q4 9:13
Brenen Thompson run for 1 yd to the MSST 26
98.1%
-1.4
Q4 8:45
Davon Booth run for 15 yds to the MSST 41 for a 1ST down
98.1%
0.0
Q4 8:20
Blake Shapen pass complete to Ayden Williams for 15 yds to the TA&M 44 for a 1ST down
98.1%
0.0
Q4 7:53
Brenen Thompson 44 Yd pass from Blake Shapen (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)
97.4%
-0.6
TA&M · Drive 23FG · 8 plays · 65 yds
Q4 7:53
Kyle Ferrie kickoff for 39 yds
97.4%
0.0
Q4 7:51
Rueben Owens II run for 17 yds to the TA&M 43 for a 1ST down
99.3%
+1.9
Q4 7:08
Rueben Owens II run for 6 yds to the TA&M 49
99.3%
0.0
Q4 6:25
Rueben Owens II run for 37 yds to the MSST 14 for a 1ST down
99.4%
+0.1
Q4 5:40
Amari Daniels run for 1 yd to the MSST 13
99.4%
0.0
Q4 4:56
Amari Daniels run for 3 yds to the MSST 10
99.4%
0.0
Q4 4:51
Amari Daniels run for 1 yd to the MSST 9
99.4%
0.0
Q4 4:41
Randy Bond 27 Yd Field Goal
99.5%
+0.1
MSST · Drive 24PUNT · 7 plays · 3 yds
Q4 4:41
Randy Bond kickoff for 62 yds , Davon Booth return for 18 yds to the MSST 21
99.5%
+0.1
Q4 4:37
Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Sam West for a 1ST down Texas A&M Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Daymion Sanford) to the MSST 25 for a 1ST down
98.3%
-1.3
Q4 4:33
Blake Shapen pass complete to Fluff Bothwell for 12 yds to the MSST 37 for a 1ST down
98.3%
0.0
Q4 4:08
Blake Shapen pass complete to Fluff Bothwell for a loss of 6 yards to the MSST 31
98.3%
0.0
Q4 3:54
Blake Shapen sacked by Cashius Howell for a loss of 7 yards to the MSST 24
98.3%
0.0
Q4 3:17
Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Ricky Johnson, broken up by Jordan Shaw
98.4%
+0.1
Q4 3:11
Ethan Pulliam punt for 41 yds
98.4%
0.0
TA&M · Drive 25Uncategorized · 6 plays · 28 yds
Q4 3:02
Jamarion Morrow run for 2 yds to the TA&M 37
99.5%
+1.2
Q4 2:22
Jamarion Morrow run for 1 yd to the TA&M 38
99.5%
0.0
Q4 2:00
Mario Craver run for 28 yds to the MSST 34 for a 1ST down
99.5%
0.0
Q4 1:28
Marcel Reed run for a loss of 1 yard to the MSST 35
99.5%
0.0
Q4 0:48
Marcel Reed run for a loss of 2 yards to the MSST 37
99.5%
0.0
Q4 0:16
Marcel Reed run for a loss of 1 yard to the MSST 37
99.5%
0.0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 3:30
KC Concepcion 2 Yd pass from Marcel Reed (Randy Bond Kick)
+24
TD · Q2 1:51
KC Concepcion 34 Yd pass from Marcel Reed (Randy Bond Kick)
+16.1
KEY PLAY · Q2 5:38
Davon Booth run for 3 yds to the MSST 30
-6.8