2025 · Week 6 · Oct 4, 2025 · Memorial Stadium (Norman, OK)
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Win probability · OU
modelOU aheadKENT aheadconfidence bandkey playOU scoreKENT score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 7:14 · Grayson Miller punt for 44 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the KENT 1
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factor
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 14:28: Michael Hawkins Jr. pass complete to Kaden Helms for 3 yds for a TD (Tate Sandell KICK) — OU win probability +0.4 pts (now 99%) (top driver: OU has the ball).
- FG · Q2 9:09: Tate Sandell 39 yd FG GOOD — OU win probability +0.2 pts (now 100%) (top driver: OU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 10:17: Gracen Halton 4 Yd Fumble Return (Tate Sandell Kick) — OU win probability +0.6 pts (now 100%) (top driver: KENT has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
OU made the numbers' call on 7 of 7KENT made the numbers' call on 9 of 11
- Q1 11:24KENT 4th & 3 at KENT 37, tiedClose callPunted · 0.8% before the snapGo for it0.9%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.9%−<0.1average punt
- Q1 8:19KENT 4th & 6 at KENT 25, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.0% before the snapGo for it1.0%−0.138% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.0%average punt
- Q1 8:19KENT 4th & 6 at KENT 25, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.0% before the snapGo for it1.0%−0.138% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.0%average punt
- Q1 5:41OU 4th & 18 at KENT 31, up 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 98.8% before the snapGo for it98.7%−0.113% to convertField goalTheir call98.8%54% to makePunt98.8%−0.1average punt
- Q1 3:39KENT 4th & 8 at KENT 27, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.2% before the snapGo for it1.2%−0.133% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.3%average punt
- Q2 12:49KENT 4th & 18 at KENT 17, down 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.1% before the snapGo for it1.0%−0.212% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.2%average punt
- Q2 9:09OU 4th & 6 at KENT 21, up 17Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 98.8% before the snapGo for it98.8%−<0.138% to convertField goalTheir call98.8%74% to makePunt98.3%−0.5average punt
- Q2 4:55KENT 4th & 4 at OU 21, down 20Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call1.0%47% to convertField goal0.9%−<0.174% to makePunt0.5%−0.5average punt
- Q2 0:56OU 4th & 8 at KENT 37, up 20Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.2% before the snapGo for it99.2%−<0.135% to convertField goalTheir call99.2%40% to makePunt99.1%−0.1average punt
- Q3 11:25OU 4th & 10 at KENT 46, up 23Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.1% before the snapGo for it99.1%−<0.130% to convertField goal99.0%−0.123% to makePuntTheir call99.1%average punt
- Q3 7:37KENT 4th & 11 at KENT 1, down 30Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it-0.0%−0.222% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
- Q3 1:49KENT 4th & 14 at KENT 21, down 44Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it-0.0%−0.217% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
- Q3 1:01OU 4th & 11 at OU 46, up 44Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.9%−0.126% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call100.0%average punt
- Q3 1:01OU 4th & 11 at OU 46, up 44Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.9%−0.126% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call100.0%average punt
- Q4 13:20KENT 4th & 8 at KENT 44, down 44Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.0%−<0.134% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 7:14OU 4th & 13 at KENT 45, up 44Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.9%−0.121% to convertField goal99.9%−0.125% to makePuntTheir call100.0%average punt
- Q4 3:51KENT 4th & 1 at KENT 45, down 44Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.1%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt0.0%−<0.1average punt
- Q4 1:06KENT 4th & 8 at KENT 49, down 44Close callWent for it · 0.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.0%−<0.134% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt0.0%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
OU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
- Q1 9:55OU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.2%97% to makeGo for two99.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 14:28OU Touchdown, up 16 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.7%97% to makeGo for two98.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 10:17OU Touchdown, up 29 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 6:35OU Touchdown, up 36 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 3:55OU Touchdown, up 43 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartKENTDrive 1PUNT9 plays · 22 yds · 3:260% → 1%
Q1 13:29
3RD & 8
OWN 17
+13
99.6%
Devin Kargman pass complete to Dashawn Martin for 13 yds to the KENT 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:13
2ND & 12
OWN 28
+9
99.5%
Devin Kargman pass complete to Wayne Harris for 9 yds to the KENT 37Similar
Q1 11:24
4TH & 3
OWN 37
+43
99.5%
Charlie Durkin punt for 48 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the KENT 42 , Isaiah Sategna III returns for 43 yds to the KENT 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 2TD5 plays · 42 yds · 1:22100% → 100%
Q1 9:55
3RD & 10
OPP 30
+30
99.4%
Michael Hawkins Jr. pass complete to Isaiah Sategna III for 30 yds for a TD (Tate Sandell KICK)Similar
Q1 9:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-15
99.5%
Sandell,Tate kick attempt good (H: Ulrich,Jacob, LS: Anderson,Ben) PENALTY OU Personal Foul (Baklenko,Luke) 15 yards from KSU03 to KSU18. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 3PUNT6 plays · 4 yds · 1:231% → 1%
OUDrive 4FG6 plays · 24 yds · 2:2799% → 99%
KENTDrive 5PUNT6 plays · 2 yds · 1:571% → 1%
OUDrive 6TD9 plays · 74 yds · 4:0399% → 99%
Q1 2:58
2ND & 5
OWN 31
+7
99.1%
Michael Hawkins Jr. pass complete to Jaren Kanak for 7 yds to the OU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:56
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+14
99.0%
Michael Hawkins Jr. pass complete to Jaren Kanak for 14 yds to the KENT 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:30
2ND & 12
OPP 40
+32
98.9%
Michael Hawkins Jr. pass complete to Ivan Carreon for 32 yds to the KENT 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:28
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
99.3%
Michael Hawkins Jr. pass complete to Kaden Helms for 3 yds for a TD (Tate Sandell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 7PUNT5 plays · -8 yds · 1:331% → 1%
Q2 14:14
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
99.2%
Devin Kargman pass complete to Wayne Harris for no gain to the KENT 25Similar
Q2 13:37
3RD & 10
OWN 25
-8
99.2%
Devin Kargman sacked by Danny Okoye for a loss of 8 yards to the KENT 17Similar
Q2 12:49
4TH & 18
OWN 17
+14
99.2%
Charlie Durkin punt for 50 yds , Isaiah Sategna III returns for 14 yds to the OU 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 8FG8 plays · 32 yds · 3:2899% → 100%
Q2 12:37
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+6
99.2%
Michael Hawkins Jr. pass complete to Deion Burks for 6 yds to the KENT 47Similar
Q2 10:16
2ND & 16
OPP 31
+6
99.4%
Michael Hawkins Jr. pass complete to Jaydn Ott for 6 yds to the KENT 25Similar
Q2 9:33
3RD & 20
OPP 35
+14
99.4%
Michael Hawkins Jr. pass complete to Jaydn Ott for 14 yds to the KENT 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 9DOWNS10 plays · 54 yds · 4:001% → 1%
Q2 8:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+21
99.4%
Devin Kargman pass complete to Dashawn Martin for 21 yds to the KENT 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:55
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+12
99.2%
Devin Kargman pass complete to Christian Berry for 12 yds to the OU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:30
3RD & 13
OPP 30
+9
99.2%
Devin Kargman pass complete to Wayne Harris for 9 yds to the OU 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 10FG11 plays · 42 yds · 3:46100% → 99%
Q2 4:42
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+16
99.5%
Michael Hawkins Jr. pass complete to Isaiah Sategna III for 16 yds to the OU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:12
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-11
99.5%
Michael Hawkins Jr. sacked by Jamond Mathis for a loss of 11 yards to the OU 26Similar
Q2 3:24
2ND & 21
OWN 26
+20
99.5%
Michael Hawkins Jr. pass complete to Isaiah Sategna III for 20 yds to the OU 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 11END OF HALF4 plays · 3 yds · 0:491% → 1%
OUDrive 12PUNT11 plays · 41 yds · 3:2599% → 99%
KENTDrive 13FUMBLE RETURN TD3 plays · -6 yds · 1:001% → 0%
KENTDrive 14PUNT6 plays · -1 yds · 2:260% → 0%
Q3 7:37
4TH & 11
OWN 1
+18
99.9%
Charlie Durkin punt for 35 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the KENT 18 , Isaiah Sategna III returns for 18 yds to the KENT 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 15TD3 plays · 18 yds · 0:56100% → 100%
KENTDrive 16INT4 plays · 0 yds · 0:080% → 0%
OUDrive 17TD6 plays · 30 yds · 2:17100% → 100%
Q3 6:12
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+11
99.9%
Michael Hawkins Jr. run for 11 yds to the KENT 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:01
2ND & 5
OPP 14
+4
99.9%
Michael Hawkins Jr. pass complete to Deion Burks for 4 yds to the KENT 10Similar
Q3 3:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
99.9%
Michael Hawkins Jr. pass complete to Isaiah Sategna III for 9 yds for a TD (Tate Sandell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 18PUNT6 plays · -4 yds · 1:590% → 0%
Q3 1:49
4TH & 14
OWN 21
+8
99.9%
Charlie Durkin punt for 40 yds , Isaiah Sategna III returns for 8 yds to the OU 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 19PUNT5 plays · -6 yds · 0:41100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 20PUNT7 plays · 19 yds · 2:210% → 0%
Q4 14:54
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+15
99.9%
(15:00) No Huddle-Shotgun Ruffin,Deante pass incomplete deep left to Martin,DaShawn thrown to OU37 PENALTY OU Pass Interference (Guillory,Courtland) 15 yards from KSU27 to KSU42, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 13:20
4TH & 8
OWN 44
0
99.9%
Jake Stoeckel punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Isaiah Sategna III at the OU 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 21PUNT14 plays · 40 yds · 5:59100% → 100%
Q4 12:00
3RD & 8
OWN 17
+8
99.9%
Whitt Newbauer pass complete to Will Huggins for 8 yds to the OU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:39
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+8
99.9%
(09:39) No Huddle-Shotgun Newbauer,Whitt pass incomplete short middle to Thomas,Elijah thrown to OU47 PENALTY KSU Pass Interference (Boamah,Joel) 8 yards from OU38 to OU46, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 7:55
2ND & 7
OPP 39
-6
99.9%
Whitt Newbauer sacked by Jaihien Roy for a loss of 6 yards to the KENT 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 22DOWNS12 plays · 54 yds · 6:000% → 0%
Q4 6:28
2ND & 9
OWN 2
+34
100.0%
Deante Ruffin pass complete to Ardell Banks for 34 yds to the KENT 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:42
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-5
100.0%
PENALTY KSU False Start (Wolford,Cade) 5 yards from KSU36 to KSU31. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 5:28
1ST & 15
OWN 31
-4
100.0%
Deante Ruffin sacked by Markus Strong for a loss of 4 yards to the KENT 27Similar
Q4 3:13
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-9
100.0%
Deante Ruffin sacked by Taylor Wein for a loss of 9 yards to the KENT 38Similar
Q4 1:42
3RD & 18
OWN 39
+10
100.0%
Deante Ruffin pass complete to Matthew Maxey for 10 yds to the KENT 49Similar
Q4 1:06
4TH & 8
OWN 49
+6
100.0%
Devin Kargman pass complete to Dakota Taylor for 6 yds to the OU 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 10:17
Gracen Halton 4 Yd Fumble Return (Tate Sandell Kick)
+0.6
TD · Q2 14:28
Michael Hawkins Jr. pass complete to Kaden Helms for 3 yds for a TD (Tate Sandell KICK)
+0.4
FG · Q2 9:09
Tate Sandell 39 yd FG GOOD
+0.2