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VAN

Vanderbilt 14 at Alabama 30

ALA
2025 · Week 6 · Oct 4, 2025 · Bryant-Denny Stadium
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Win probability · ALA
modelALA aheadVAN aheadconfidence bandkey playALA scoreVAN score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGFGFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 9:47 · Ty Simpson pass intercepted Martel Hight return for no gain to the VAN 7
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+32.5+16.30−16.3−32.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 10Pregame prior+29.8Home team on offense+0.3Garbage-time factor−0.1Score differential−0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 6:34: Sedrick Alexander run for 65 yds for a TD (Brock Taylor KICK) — VAN win probability +2.7 pts (now 23%) (top driver: VAN has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 9:22: Ty Simpson pass complete to Ryan Williams for 14 yds for a TD (Conor Talty KICK) — ALA win probability +6.8 pts (now 78%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 1:33: Diego Pavia pass complete to Sedrick Alexander for 4 yds for a TD (Brock Taylor KICK) — VAN win probability +10.6 pts (now 47%) (top driver: VAN has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 0:17: Ty Simpson pass complete to Germie Bernard for 27 yds for a TD (Conor Talty KICK) — ALA win probability +13.1 pts (now 75%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  5. FG · Q3 1:17: Conor Talty 30 yd FG GOOD — ALA win probability +7.7 pts (now 81%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ALA made the numbers' call on 6 of 8VAN made the numbers' call on 2 of 4
  1. Q1 9:47ALA 4th & 1 at VAN 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 80.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    80.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    80.5%−0.2
    58% to make
    Punt
    80.1%−0.5
    average punt
  2. Q1 3:45ALA 4th & 9 at VAN 28, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 75.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.4%−0.2
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    75.6%
    60% to make
    Punt
    74.2%−1.3
    average punt
  3. Q2 10:42ALA 4th & 7 at VAN 35, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 69.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    70.0%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    69.5%−0.4
    45% to make
    Punt
    69.0%−0.9
    average punt
  4. Q2 7:37VAN 4th & 9 at VAN 41, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.2%−0.8
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.0%
    average punt
  5. Q2 5:56ALA 4th & 19 at ALA 8, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.4%−2.5
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.9%
    average punt
  6. Q3 12:49VAN 4th & 4 at VAN 46, tied
    Close callPunted · 32.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.6%−0.3
    average punt
  7. Q3 9:15ALA 4th & 8 at VAN 20, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 70.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.0%−1.2
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    70.2%
    75% to make
    Punt
    62.2%−8.1
    average punt
  8. Q3 7:13VAN 4th & 4 at VAN 31, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.6%−1.0
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.6%
    average punt
  9. Q3 1:17ALA 4th & 12 at VAN 13, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 71.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.1%−2.8
    20% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    70.9%
    85% to make
    Punt
    58.9%−12.0
    average punt
  10. Q4 4:08ALA 4th & 4 at VAN 12, up 6
    Close callKicked a field goal · 89.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.5%
    45% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    88.9%−0.5
    86% to make
    Punt
    81.7%−7.8
    average punt
  11. Q4 1:18VAN 4th & 21 at VAN 28, down 9
    Close callWent for it · 5.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.2%−0.5
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    4.7%
    average punt
  12. Q4 0:17ALA 4th & 2 at VAN 20, up 9
    Close callWent for it · 95.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    95.0%−0.5
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    95.4%
    75% to make
    Punt
    93.1%−2.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ALA made the numbers' call on 2 of 3VAN made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 6:34VAN Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    22.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    22.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 9:22ALA Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 1:33VAN Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    39.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    39.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:17ALA Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 0:17ALA Touchdown, up 15 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.3%−0.4
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.6%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ALADrive 1INT
10 plays · 46 yds · 4:5882% → 81%
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
82.2%
Jam Miller run for 1 yd to the ALA 26Similar
Q1 14:07
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+10
82.0%
Jam Miller run for 10 yds to the ALA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:34
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+15
81.9%
Simpson, Ty pass incomplete to Bernard, Germie, PENALTY VAN personal foul 15 yards to the VAN49, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN ALA.Similar
Q1 13:13
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+5
81.9%
Ty Simpson pass complete to Germie Bernard for 5 yds to the VAN 44Similar
Q1 12:37
2ND & 5
OPP 44
+6
81.8%
Jam Miller run for 6 yds to the VAN 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:49
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+1
81.7%
Kevin Riley run for 1 yd to the VAN 37Similar
Q1 10:55
2ND & 9
OPP 37
+5
81.5%
Ty Simpson pass complete to Josh Cuevas for 5 yds to the VAN 32Similar
Q1 10:25
3RD & 4
OPP 32
+3
81.3%
Ty Simpson pass complete to Ryan Williams for 3 yds to the VAN 29Similar
Q1 9:47
4TH & 1
OPP 29
0
81.0%
Ty Simpson pass intercepted Martel Hight return for no gain to the VAN 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 2TD
6 plays · 93 yds · 3:0519% → 23%
Q1 9:39
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+4
80.8%
Sedrick Alexander run for 4 yds to the VAN 11Similar
Q1 9:01
2ND & 6
OWN 11
+6
80.6%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Eli Stowers for 6 yds to the VAN 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:40
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+9
80.3%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Tristen Brown for 9 yds to the VAN 26Similar
Q1 8:01
2ND & 1
OWN 26
+3
80.0%
Diego Pavia run for 3 yds to the VAN 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:11
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+6
79.8%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Junior Sherrill for 6 yds to the VAN 35Similar
Q1 6:34
2ND & 4
OWN 35
+65
77.1%
Sedrick Alexander run for 65 yds for a TD (Brock Taylor KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 3MISSED FG
10 plays · 48 yds · 2:3877% → 76%
Q1 6:23
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
77.4%
Ty Simpson pass incomplete to Josh CuevasSimilar
Q1 6:17
2ND & 10
OWN 24
-10
77.4%
Riley, Kevin rush for 5 yards to the ALA29, PENALTY ALA holding 10 yards to the ALA14, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 5:53
2ND & 20
OWN 14
+35
77.1%
Ty Simpson pass complete to Isaiah Horton for 35 yds to the ALA 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:16
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+22
77.4%
Jam Miller run for 22 yds to the VAN 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:43
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-10
77.6%
Riley, Kevin rush for 5 yards to the VAN24, PENALTY ALA holding 10 yards to the VAN39, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 4:08
1ST & 20
OPP 39
+11
76.6%
Ty Simpson pass complete to Rico Scott for 11 yds to the VAN 28Similar
Q1 3:55
2ND & 9
OPP 28
0
77.2%
Ty Simpson pass incomplete to Kevin RileySimilar
Q1 3:50
3RD & 9
OPP 28
0
76.8%
Ty Simpson pass incomplete to Lotzeir BrooksSimilar
Q1 3:45
4TH & 9
OPP 28
+47
76.0%
Conor Talty 47 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 4FUMBLE
7 plays · 59 yds · 1:5925% → 27%
Q1 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-4
75.3%
Vanderbilt Penalty, False Start (-4 Yards) to the VAN 24Similar
Q1 3:38
1ST & 14
OWN 24
+36
75.5%
Diego Pavia run for 36 yds to the ALA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:57
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+12
74.1%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Cole Spence for 12 yds to the ALA 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:27
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+15
73.5%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Richie Hoskins for 15 yds to the ALA 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:57
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
72.9%
Diego Pavia pass incomplete to Eli StowersSimilar
Q1 1:50
2ND & 10
OPP 13
0
72.8%
Diego Pavia pass incomplete to Junior SherrillSimilar
Q1 1:46
3RD & 10
OPP 13
+5
73.1%
Diego Pavia run for 5 yds to the ALA 8 Diego Pavia fumbled, forced by Justin Jefferson, recovered by ALA Tim Keenan IIISimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 5TD
14 plays · 92 yds · 7:1574% → 78%
Q1 1:37
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+14
74.0%
Jam Miller run for 14 yds to the ALA 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:49
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+4
73.5%
Jam Miller run for 4 yds to the ALA 26Similar
Q1 0:04
2ND & 6
OWN 26
+12
73.2%
Jam Miller run for 12 yds to the ALA 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+8
73.3%
Kevin Riley run for 8 yds to the ALA 46Similar
Q2 14:18
2ND & 2
OWN 46
-1
73.6%
Kevin Riley run for a loss of 1 yard to the ALA 45Similar
Q2 13:28
3RD & 3
OWN 45
+17
72.7%
Ty Simpson pass complete to Germie Bernard for 17 yds to the VAN 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:49
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
73.0%
Jam Miller run for no gain to the VAN 38Similar
Q2 11:57
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+3
71.9%
Ty Simpson run for 3 yds to the VAN 35Similar
Q2 11:15
3RD & 7
OPP 35
0
71.3%
Ty Simpson run for no gain to the VAN 35Similar
Q2 10:42
4TH & 7
OPP 35
+18
69.9%
Ty Simpson pass complete to Josh Cuevas for 18 yds to the VAN 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:57
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+3
71.2%
Jam Miller run for 3 yds to the VAN 14Similar
Q2 9:22
2ND & 7
OPP 14
+14
78.0%
Ty Simpson pass complete to Ryan Williams for 14 yds for a TD (Conor Talty KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 6PUNT
6 plays · 16 yds · 1:2926% → 26%
Q2 9:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
74.4%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Junior Sherrill for 15 yds to the VAN 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:27
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
72.9%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Junior Sherrill for 1 yd to the VAN 41Similar
Q2 7:49
2ND & 9
OWN 41
0
71.9%
Diego Pavia pass incomplete to Tre RichardsonSimilar
Q2 7:43
3RD & 9
OWN 41
0
72.5%
Diego Pavia pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:37
4TH & 9
OWN 41
0
73.7%
Nick Haberer punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Cole Adams at the ALA 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 7PUNT
4 plays · -9 yds · 1:3375% → 73%
Q2 7:29
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-10
75.1%
Ty Simpson sacked by Joshua Singh for a loss of 10 yards to the ALA 7Similar
Q2 6:43
2ND & 20
OWN 7
+1
74.5%
Jam Miller run for 1 yd to the ALA 8Similar
Q2 6:06
3RD & 19
OWN 8
0
73.4%
Ty Simpson pass incomplete to Isaiah HortonSimilar
Q2 5:56
4TH & 19
OWN 8
0
72.8%
Blake Doud punt for 30 yds, downed at the ALA 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 8TD
12 plays · 38 yds · 4:1430% → 47%
Q2 5:47
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
69.8%
Makhilyn Young run for no gain to the ALA 38Similar
Q2 5:01
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+3
69.4%
Diego Pavia run for 3 yds to the ALA 35Similar
Q2 4:17
3RD & 7
OPP 35
+9
69.3%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Richie Hoskins for 9 yds to the ALA 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:35
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
67.3%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Tre Richardson for no gain to the ALA 26Similar
Q2 2:56
2ND & 10
OPP 26
0
67.3%
Diego Pavia pass incomplete to Junior SherrillSimilar
Q2 2:40
3RD & 10
OPP 26
+11
68.1%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Sedrick Alexander for 11 yds to the ALA 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+4
65.3%
Diego Pavia run for 4 yds to the ALA 11Similar
Q2 1:48
2ND & 6
OPP 11
+5
65.2%
Sedrick Alexander run for 5 yds to the ALA 6Similar
Q2 1:39
3RD & 1
OPP 6
+2
65.6%
Diego Pavia run for 2 yds to the ALA 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
52.9%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Sedrick Alexander for 4 yds for a TD (Brock Taylor KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 9TD
8 plays · 78 yds · 1:0559% → 75%
Q2 1:22
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+13
59.2%
Ty Simpson pass complete to Isaiah Horton for 13 yds to the ALA 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:09
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-2
59.4%
Ty Simpson sacked by Khordae Sydnor for a loss of 2 yards to the ALA 33Similar
Q2 0:39
2ND & 12
OWN 33
+10
58.4%
Ty Simpson pass complete to Ryan Williams for 10 yds to the ALA 43Similar
Q2 0:27
3RD & 2
OWN 43
+17
59.9%
Ty Simpson pass complete to Ryan Williams for 17 yds to the VAN 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:23
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+13
62.3%
Ty Simpson pass complete to Germie Bernard for 13 yds to the VAN 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:17
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+27
75.3%
Ty Simpson pass complete to Germie Bernard for 27 yds for a TD (Conor Talty KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 10END OF HALF
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0031% → 31%
Q2 0:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
69.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the VAN 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 11PUNT
6 plays · 21 yds · 1:5831% → 32%
Q3 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
69.1%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Junior Sherrill for 15 yds to the VAN 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:14
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
67.1%
Sedrick Alexander run for 2 yds to the VAN 42Similar
Q3 13:35
2ND & 8
OWN 42
0
66.5%
Diego Pavia pass incomplete to Junior SherrillSimilar
Q3 13:24
3RD & 8
OWN 42
+4
67.5%
Diego Pavia run for 4 yds to the VAN 46Similar
Q3 12:49
4TH & 4
OWN 46
+2
68.0%
Nick Haberer punt for 44 yds , Cole Adams returns for 2 yds to the ALA 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 12FG
6 plays · 68 yds · 3:2171% → 75%
Q3 12:36
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+12
70.9%
Ty Simpson pass complete to Josh Cuevas for 12 yds to the ALA 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:47
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+54
70.5%
Ty Simpson pass complete to Ryan Williams for 54 yds to the VAN 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:08
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+5
74.2%
Jam Miller run for 5 yds to the VAN 17Similar
Q3 10:28
2ND & 5
OPP 17
0
74.0%
Jam Miller run for no gain to the VAN 17Similar
Q3 9:50
3RD & 5
OPP 17
-3
72.7%
Germie Bernard run for a loss of 3 yards to the VAN 20Similar
Q3 9:15
4TH & 8
OPP 20
+38
75.2%
Conor Talty 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:5527% → 26%
Q3 9:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
73.4%
Diego Pavia run for 1 yd to the VAN 26Similar
Q3 8:25
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+8
73.2%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Eli Stowers for 8 yds to the VAN 34Similar
Q3 7:48
3RD & 1
OWN 34
-3
72.0%
Diego Pavia run for a loss of 3 yards to the VAN 31Similar
Q3 7:13
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
74.2%
Nick Haberer punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Cole Adams at the ALA 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 14FG
11 plays · 66 yds · 5:4074% → 81%
Q3 6:57
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+30
74.0%
Ty Simpson pass complete to Lotzeir Brooks for 30 yds to the VAN 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:21
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
76.7%
Ty Simpson pass incomplete to Isaiah HortonSimilar
Q3 5:57
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+1
76.2%
Ty Simpson run for 1 yd to the VAN 48Similar
Q3 5:25
3RD & 9
OPP 48
+20
75.3%
Ty Simpson pass complete to Germie Bernard for 20 yds to the VAN 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:26
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-5
77.1%
Ty Simpson sacked by Zaylin Wood for a loss of 5 yards to the VAN 33Similar
Q3 4:02
2ND & 15
OPP 33
+9
75.5%
Ty Simpson pass complete to Isaiah Horton for 9 yds to the VAN 24Similar
Q3 3:14
3RD & 6
OPP 24
+13
75.7%
Ty Simpson run for 13 yds to the VAN 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:37
1ST & 10
OPP 11
-10
76.8%
Ty Simpson sacked by Miles Capers for a loss of 10 yards to the VAN 21Similar
Q3 1:55
2ND & 20
OPP 21
0
76.0%
Ty Simpson pass incomplete to Josh CuevasSimilar
Q3 1:46
3RD & 20
OPP 21
+8
73.6%
Ty Simpson pass complete to Jam Miller for 8 yds to the VAN 13Similar
Q3 1:17
4TH & 12
OPP 13
+30
81.3%
Conor Talty 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 15INT
7 plays · 58 yds · 3:3224% → 31%
Q3 1:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
76.2%
Diego Pavia run for 3 yds to the VAN 28Similar
Q3 0:27
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+13
75.6%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Richie Hoskins for 13 yds to the VAN 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
73.9%
AJ Newberry run for 2 yds to the VAN 43Similar
Q4 14:04
2ND & 8
OWN 43
+7
73.8%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Junior Sherrill for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 13:18
3RD & 1
50
+33
72.0%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Cole Spence for 33 yds to the ALA 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:37
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-12
69.1%
Diego Pavia pass intercepted Keon Sabb return for 12 yds to the ALA 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 16FG
18 plays · 69 yds · 8:1283% → 93%
Q4 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+10
83.3%
Ty Simpson pass complete to Kevin Riley for 10 yds to the ALA 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:09
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+5
83.5%
Simpson, Ty pass incomplete to Bernard, Germie, PENALTY VAN offside 5 yards to the ALA34, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 11:52
1ST & 5
OWN 34
0
86.1%
Ty Simpson pass complete to Ryan Williams for no gain to the ALA 34Similar
Q4 11:25
2ND & 5
OWN 34
0
85.6%
Ty Simpson pass complete to Rico Scott for no gain to the ALA 34Similar
Q4 10:35
3RD & 5
OWN 34
+9
85.3%
Ty Simpson pass complete to Isaiah Horton for 9 yds to the ALA 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:13
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+5
87.4%
Jam Miller run for 5 yds to the ALA 48Similar
Q4 9:28
2ND & 5
OWN 48
+4
88.1%
Jam Miller run for 4 yds to the VAN 48Similar
Q4 9:08
3RD & 1
OPP 48
+4
87.8%
Ty Simpson run for 4 yds to the VAN 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:19
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+6
88.7%
Jam Miller run for 6 yds to the VAN 38Similar
Q4 7:42
2ND & 4
OPP 38
+9
89.0%
Jam Miller run for 9 yds to the VAN 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:02
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+7
89.7%
Kevin Riley run for 7 yds to the VAN 22Similar
Q4 6:18
2ND & 3
OPP 22
+2
89.8%
Kevin Riley run for 2 yds to the VAN 20Similar
Q4 5:33
3RD & 1
OPP 20
+2
89.7%
Kadyn Proctor run for 2 yds to the VAN 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:50
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+5
90.7%
Jam Miller run for 5 yds to the VAN 13Similar
Q4 4:14
2ND & 5
OPP 13
+1
91.4%
Jam Miller run for 1 yd to the VAN 12Similar
Q4 4:11
3RD & 4
OPP 12
0
92.3%
Ty Simpson pass incomplete to Ryan WilliamsSimilar
Q4 4:08
4TH & 4
OPP 12
+30
93.4%
Conor Talty 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 17INT
15 plays · 26 yds · 2:337% → 4%
Q4 3:51
1ST & 10
OWN 14
0
93.3%
Diego Pavia pass incomplete to Junior SherrillSimilar
Q4 3:39
2ND & 10
OWN 14
+11
93.4%
Diego Pavia run for 11 yds to the VAN 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
93.3%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Junior Sherrill for 5 yds to the VAN 30Similar
Q4 2:53
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
94.3%
Diego Pavia pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:41
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
94.8%
Diego Pavia pass incomplete to Tre RichardsonSimilar
Q4 2:36
4TH & 5
OWN 30
+10
95.5%
Pavia, Diego pass pass intended for Richardson, Tre intercepted by Mincey, Zavier at the VAN42, Mincey, Zavier return 30 yards to the VAN12, PENALTY ALA holding 10 yards to the VAN40, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN VAN.Similar
Q4 2:36
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-15
94.2%
Vanderbilt Penalty, Personal Foul (-15 Yards) to the VAN 25Similar
Q4 2:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
95.2%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Tre Richardson for 6 yds to the VAN 31Similar
Q4 2:11
2ND & 4
OWN 31
0
94.3%
Diego Pavia pass incomplete to Richie HoskinsSimilar
Q4 2:00
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+8
94.9%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Eli Stowers for 8 yds to the VAN 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:49
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-11
94.4%
Diego Pavia sacked by Justin Jefferson for a loss of 11 yards to the VAN 28Similar
Q4 1:34
2ND & 21
OWN 28
0
95.3%
Diego Pavia pass incomplete to Eli StowersSimilar
Q4 1:26
3RD & 21
OWN 28
0
95.5%
Diego Pavia pass incomplete to Tre RichardsonSimilar
Q4 1:18
4TH & 21
OWN 28
0
95.8%
Diego Pavia pass incomplete to Eli StowersSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 18TD
7 plays · 28 yds · 0:5497% → 99%
Q4 1:11
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+4
96.8%
Jam Miller run for 4 yds to the VAN 24Similar
Q4 1:09
2ND & 6
OPP 24
+3
96.9%
Jam Miller run for 3 yds to the VAN 21Similar
Q4 0:55
3RD & 3
OPP 21
+1
96.8%
Jam Miller run for 1 yd to the VAN 20Similar
Q4 0:17
4TH & 2
OPP 20
+20
98.9%
Jam Miller run for 20 yds for a TD (Conor Talty KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 19END OF GAME
3 plays · 15 yds · 0:101% → 1%
Q4 0:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
99.1%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Sedrick Alexander for 7 yds to the VAN 32Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+8
99.1%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Brycen Coleman for 8 yds to the VAN 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:17
Ty Simpson pass complete to Germie Bernard for 27 yds for a TD (Conor Talty KICK)
+13.1
TD · Q2 1:33
Diego Pavia pass complete to Sedrick Alexander for 4 yds for a TD (Brock Taylor KICK)
-10.6
FG · Q3 1:17
Conor Talty 30 yd FG GOOD
+7.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com