VAN
Vanderbilt 14 at Alabama 30
ALA2025 · Week 6 · Oct 4, 2025 · Bryant-Denny Stadium
Speed4x
Win probability · ALA
modelALA aheadVAN aheadconfidence bandkey play
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ALA · Drive 1INT · 10 plays · 46 yds
Q1 15:00
Brock Taylor kickoff for 65 yds , Lotzeir Brooks return for 25 yds to the ALA 25
77.4%
0.0
Q1 14:45
Jam Miller run for 1 yd to the ALA 26
79.3%
+2.0
Q1 14:07
Jam Miller run for 10 yds to the ALA 36 for a 1ST down
79.3%
0.0
Q1 13:34
Simpson, Ty pass incomplete to Bernard, Germie, PENALTY VAN personal foul 15 yards to the VAN49, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN ALA.
79.5%
+0.2
Q1 13:13
Ty Simpson pass complete to Germie Bernard for 5 yds to the VAN 44
80.7%
+1.2
Q1 12:37
Jam Miller run for 6 yds to the VAN 38 for a 1ST down
80.7%
0.0
Q1 11:49
Kevin Riley run for 1 yd to the VAN 37
80.9%
+0.2
Q1 10:55
Ty Simpson pass complete to Josh Cuevas for 5 yds to the VAN 32
80.9%
0.0
Q1 10:25
Ty Simpson pass complete to Ryan Williams for 3 yds to the VAN 29
80.8%
-0.2
Q1 9:47
Ty Simpson pass intercepted Martel Hight return for no gain to the VAN 7
80.5%
-0.3
VAN · Drive 2TD · 6 plays · 93 yds
Q1 9:39
Sedrick Alexander run for 4 yds to the VAN 11
76.5%
-4.0
Q1 9:01
Diego Pavia pass complete to Eli Stowers for 6 yds to the VAN 17 for a 1ST down
76.6%
+0.1
Q1 8:40
Diego Pavia pass complete to Tristen Brown for 9 yds to the VAN 26
76.3%
-0.3
Q1 8:01
Diego Pavia run for 3 yds to the VAN 29 for a 1ST down
76.3%
+0.1
Q1 7:11
Diego Pavia pass complete to Junior Sherrill for 6 yds to the VAN 35
76.3%
0.0
Q1 6:34
Sedrick Alexander run for 65 yds for a TD (Brock Taylor KICK)
61.8%
-14.6
ALA · Drive 3MISSED FG · 10 plays · 48 yds
Q1 6:34
Brock Taylor kickoff for 58 yds , Lotzeir Brooks return for 17 yds to the ALA 24
61.8%
0.0
Q1 6:23
Ty Simpson pass incomplete to Josh Cuevas
61.2%
-0.6
Q1 6:17
Riley, Kevin rush for 5 yards to the ALA29, PENALTY ALA holding 10 yards to the ALA14, NO PLAY.
61.2%
0.0
Q1 5:53
Ty Simpson pass complete to Isaiah Horton for 35 yds to the ALA 49 for a 1ST down
60.9%
-0.3
Q1 5:16
Jam Miller run for 22 yds to the VAN 29 for a 1ST down
62.0%
+1.1
Q1 4:43
Riley, Kevin rush for 5 yards to the VAN24, PENALTY ALA holding 10 yards to the VAN39, NO PLAY.
63.4%
+1.4
Q1 4:08
Ty Simpson pass complete to Rico Scott for 11 yds to the VAN 28
63.4%
0.0
Q1 3:55
Ty Simpson pass incomplete to Kevin Riley
63.2%
-0.2
Q1 3:50
Ty Simpson pass incomplete to Lotzeir Brooks
63.0%
-0.2
Q1 3:45
Conor Talty 47 yd FG MISSED
62.6%
-0.4
VAN · Drive 4FUMBLE · 7 plays · 59 yds
Q1 3:45
Vanderbilt Penalty, False Start (-4 Yards) to the VAN 24
59.7%
-2.9
Q1 3:38
Diego Pavia run for 36 yds to the ALA 40 for a 1ST down
59.7%
0.0
Q1 2:57
Diego Pavia pass complete to Cole Spence for 12 yds to the ALA 28 for a 1ST down
57.9%
-1.8
Q1 2:27
Diego Pavia pass complete to Richie Hoskins for 15 yds to the ALA 13 for a 1ST down
57.8%
-0.1
Q1 1:57
Diego Pavia pass incomplete to Eli Stowers
56.2%
-1.6
Q1 1:50
Diego Pavia pass incomplete to Junior Sherrill
56.2%
0.0
Q1 1:46
Diego Pavia run for 5 yds to the ALA 8 Diego Pavia fumbled, forced by Justin Jefferson, recovered by ALA Tim Keenan III
56.2%
0.0
ALA · Drive 5TD · 14 plays · 92 yds
Q1 1:37
Jam Miller run for 14 yds to the ALA 22 for a 1ST down
59.5%
+3.3
Q1 0:49
Jam Miller run for 4 yds to the ALA 26
59.5%
0.0
Q1 0:04
Jam Miller run for 12 yds to the ALA 38 for a 1ST down
59.1%
-0.4
Q2 14:51
Kevin Riley run for 8 yds to the ALA 46
59.4%
+0.3
Q2 14:18
Kevin Riley run for a loss of 1 yard to the ALA 45
59.7%
+0.3
Q2 13:28
Ty Simpson pass complete to Germie Bernard for 17 yds to the VAN 38 for a 1ST down
59.4%
-0.2
Q2 12:49
Jam Miller run for no gain to the VAN 38
61.9%
+2.5
Q2 12:07
Timeout Alabama, clock 12:07
60.6%
-1.3
Q2 11:57
Ty Simpson run for 3 yds to the VAN 35
60.6%
0.0
Q2 11:15
Ty Simpson run for no gain to the VAN 35
60.3%
-0.2
Q2 10:56
Timeout Vanderbilt, clock 10:56
57.9%
-2.4
Q2 10:42
Ty Simpson pass complete to Josh Cuevas for 18 yds to the VAN 17 for a 1ST down
57.9%
0.0
Q2 9:57
Jam Miller run for 3 yds to the VAN 14
58.6%
+0.6
Q2 9:22
Ty Simpson pass complete to Ryan Williams for 14 yds for a TD (Conor Talty KICK)
76.4%
+17.8
VAN · Drive 6PUNT · 6 plays · 16 yds
Q2 9:22
Conor Talty kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
74.7%
-1.7
Q2 9:06
Diego Pavia pass complete to Junior Sherrill for 15 yds to the VAN 40 for a 1ST down
70.6%
-4.1
Q2 8:27
Diego Pavia pass complete to Junior Sherrill for 1 yd to the VAN 41
69.6%
-1.0
Q2 7:49
Diego Pavia pass incomplete to Tre Richardson
67.3%
-2.3
Q2 7:43
Diego Pavia pass incomplete
67.3%
0.0
Q2 7:37
Nick Haberer punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Cole Adams at the ALA 17
67.6%
+0.3
ALA · Drive 7PUNT · 4 plays · -9 yds
Q2 7:29
Ty Simpson sacked by Joshua Singh for a loss of 10 yards to the ALA 7
75.1%
+7.5
Q2 6:43
Jam Miller run for 1 yd to the ALA 8
75.1%
0.0
Q2 6:06
Ty Simpson pass incomplete to Isaiah Horton
75.1%
0.0
Q2 5:56
Blake Doud punt for 30 yds, downed at the ALA 38
74.8%
-0.2
VAN · Drive 8TD · 12 plays · 38 yds
Q2 5:47
Makhilyn Young run for no gain to the ALA 38
65.8%
-9.0
Q2 5:01
Diego Pavia run for 3 yds to the ALA 35
65.8%
0.0
Q2 4:17
Diego Pavia pass complete to Richie Hoskins for 9 yds to the ALA 26 for a 1ST down
65.8%
0.0
Q2 3:35
Diego Pavia pass complete to Tre Richardson for no gain to the ALA 26
65.8%
0.0
Q2 2:56
Diego Pavia pass incomplete to Junior Sherrill
65.8%
0.0
Q2 2:40
Diego Pavia pass complete to Sedrick Alexander for 11 yds to the ALA 15 for a 1ST down
65.0%
-0.9
Q2 2:00
Diego Pavia run for 4 yds to the ALA 11
64.9%
-0.1
Q2 1:48
Sedrick Alexander run for 5 yds to the ALA 6
64.9%
0.0
Q2 1:48
Timeout Alabama, clock 01:48
64.9%
0.0
Q2 1:39
Diego Pavia run for 2 yds to the ALA 4 for a 1ST down
64.9%
0.0
Q2 1:39
Timeout Alabama, clock 01:39
64.9%
0.0
Q2 1:33
Diego Pavia pass complete to Sedrick Alexander for 4 yds for a TD (Brock Taylor KICK)
45.3%
-19.6
ALA · Drive 9TD · 8 plays · 78 yds
Q2 1:33
Brock Taylor kickoff for 65 yds , Lotzeir Brooks return for 22 yds to the ALA 22
47.1%
+1.9
Q2 1:22
Ty Simpson pass complete to Isaiah Horton for 13 yds to the ALA 35 for a 1ST down
49.7%
+2.6
Q2 1:09
Ty Simpson sacked by Khordae Sydnor for a loss of 2 yards to the ALA 33
49.7%
0.0
Q2 0:39
Ty Simpson pass complete to Ryan Williams for 10 yds to the ALA 43
49.6%
-0.1
Q2 0:27
Ty Simpson pass complete to Ryan Williams for 17 yds to the VAN 40 for a 1ST down
48.8%
-0.9
Q2 0:27
Timeout Vanderbilt, clock 00:27
51.4%
+2.6
Q2 0:23
Ty Simpson pass complete to Germie Bernard for 13 yds to the VAN 27 for a 1ST down
51.4%
0.0
Q2 0:17
Ty Simpson pass complete to Germie Bernard for 27 yds for a TD (Conor Talty KICK)
73.7%
+22.3
VAN · Drive 10END OF HALF · 2 plays · -1 yds
Q2 0:17
Conor Talty kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
71.9%
-1.8
Q2 0:11
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the VAN 24
64.1%
-7.8
VAN · Drive 11PUNT · 6 plays · 21 yds
Q3 15:00
Conor Talty kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
74.3%
+10.2
Q3 14:47
Diego Pavia pass complete to Junior Sherrill for 15 yds to the VAN 40 for a 1ST down
68.0%
-6.3
Q3 14:14
Sedrick Alexander run for 2 yds to the VAN 42
67.1%
-1.0
Q3 13:35
Diego Pavia pass incomplete to Junior Sherrill
66.4%
-0.7
Q3 13:24
Diego Pavia run for 4 yds to the VAN 46
66.4%
0.0
Q3 12:49
Nick Haberer punt for 44 yds , Cole Adams returns for 2 yds to the ALA 12
65.8%
-0.5
ALA · Drive 12FG · 6 plays · 68 yds
Q3 12:36
Ty Simpson pass complete to Josh Cuevas for 12 yds to the ALA 24 for a 1ST down
73.8%
+8.0
Q3 11:47
Ty Simpson pass complete to Ryan Williams for 54 yds to the VAN 22 for a 1ST down
73.6%
-0.2
Q3 11:08
Jam Miller run for 5 yds to the VAN 17
75.5%
+1.9
Q3 10:28
Jam Miller run for no gain to the VAN 17
75.3%
-0.2
Q3 9:50
Germie Bernard run for a loss of 3 yards to the VAN 20
75.1%
-0.2
Q3 9:15
Conor Talty 38 yd FG GOOD
81.1%
+5.9
VAN · Drive 13PUNT · 5 plays · 6 yds
Q3 9:15
Conor Talty kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
80.2%
-0.9
Q3 9:08
Diego Pavia run for 1 yd to the VAN 26
75.1%
-5.1
Q3 8:25
Diego Pavia pass complete to Eli Stowers for 8 yds to the VAN 34
75.0%
-0.1
Q3 7:48
Diego Pavia run for a loss of 3 yards to the VAN 31
75.0%
0.0
Q3 7:13
Nick Haberer punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Cole Adams at the ALA 21
75.0%
0.0
ALA · Drive 14FG · 11 plays · 66 yds
Q3 6:57
Ty Simpson pass complete to Lotzeir Brooks for 30 yds to the VAN 49 for a 1ST down
80.6%
+5.6
Q3 6:21
Ty Simpson pass incomplete to Isaiah Horton
81.4%
+0.8
Q3 5:57
Ty Simpson run for 1 yd to the VAN 48
81.4%
0.0
Q3 5:25
Ty Simpson pass complete to Germie Bernard for 20 yds to the VAN 28 for a 1ST down
80.9%
-0.5
Q3 4:26
Ty Simpson sacked by Zaylin Wood for a loss of 5 yards to the VAN 33
79.8%
-1.1
Q3 4:02
Ty Simpson pass complete to Isaiah Horton for 9 yds to the VAN 24
79.8%
0.0
Q3 3:14
Ty Simpson run for 13 yds to the VAN 11 for a 1ST down
80.1%
+0.3
Q3 2:37
Ty Simpson sacked by Miles Capers for a loss of 10 yards to the VAN 21
80.2%
+0.2
Q3 1:55
Ty Simpson pass incomplete to Josh Cuevas
80.2%
0.0
Q3 1:46
Ty Simpson pass complete to Jam Miller for 8 yds to the VAN 13
80.1%
-0.2
Q3 1:17
Conor Talty 30 yd FG GOOD
85.8%
+5.7
VAN · Drive 15INT · 7 plays · 58 yds
Q3 1:17
Conor Talty kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
84.9%
-0.8
Q3 1:09
Diego Pavia run for 3 yds to the VAN 28
78.5%
-6.4
Q3 0:27
Diego Pavia pass complete to Richie Hoskins for 13 yds to the VAN 41 for a 1ST down
78.5%
0.0
Q4 14:48
AJ Newberry run for 2 yds to the VAN 43
77.8%
-0.7
Q4 14:04
Diego Pavia pass complete to Junior Sherrill for 7 yds to the 50 yard line
77.7%
-0.1
Q4 13:18
Diego Pavia pass complete to Cole Spence for 33 yds to the ALA 17 for a 1ST down
78.9%
+1.2
Q4 12:37
Diego Pavia pass intercepted Keon Sabb return for 12 yds to the ALA 19
77.8%
-1.1
ALA · Drive 16FG · 18 plays · 69 yds
Q4 12:20
Ty Simpson pass complete to Kevin Riley for 10 yds to the ALA 29 for a 1ST down
86.5%
+8.7
Q4 12:09
Simpson, Ty pass incomplete to Bernard, Germie, PENALTY VAN offside 5 yards to the ALA34, NO PLAY.
86.5%
0.0
Q4 11:52
Ty Simpson pass complete to Ryan Williams for no gain to the ALA 34
87.2%
+0.7
Q4 11:25
Ty Simpson pass complete to Rico Scott for no gain to the ALA 34
87.2%
0.0
Q4 10:35
Ty Simpson pass complete to Isaiah Horton for 9 yds to the ALA 43 for a 1ST down
88.2%
+1.0
Q4 10:13
Jam Miller run for 5 yds to the ALA 48
88.5%
+0.3
Q4 9:28
Jam Miller run for 4 yds to the VAN 48
88.3%
-0.2
Q4 9:08
Ty Simpson run for 4 yds to the VAN 44 for a 1ST down
88.1%
-0.1
Q4 8:19
Jam Miller run for 6 yds to the VAN 38
88.1%
-0.1
Q4 7:42
Jam Miller run for 9 yds to the VAN 29 for a 1ST down
87.6%
-0.5
Q4 7:02
Kevin Riley run for 7 yds to the VAN 22
87.5%
-0.1
Q4 6:18
Kevin Riley run for 2 yds to the VAN 20
87.6%
+0.2
Q4 5:33
Kadyn Proctor run for 2 yds to the VAN 18 for a 1ST down
88.0%
+0.4
Q4 4:50
Jam Miller run for 5 yds to the VAN 13
89.2%
+1.2
Q4 4:14
Jam Miller run for 1 yd to the VAN 12
89.4%
+0.2
Q4 4:14
Timeout Vanderbilt, clock 04:14
90.1%
+0.7
Q4 4:11
Ty Simpson pass incomplete to Ryan Williams
90.1%
0.0
Q4 4:08
Conor Talty 30 yd FG GOOD
92.9%
+2.8
VAN · Drive 17INT · 15 plays · 26 yds
Q4 4:08
Conor Talty kickoff for 65 yds , Tre Richardson return for 27 yds to the VAN 38 Vanderbilt Penalty, Personal Foul (14 Yards) to the VAN 13
92.7%
-0.2
Q4 3:51
Diego Pavia pass incomplete to Junior Sherrill
93.6%
+0.9
Q4 3:39
Diego Pavia run for 11 yds to the VAN 25 for a 1ST down
94.0%
+0.3
Q4 3:19
Diego Pavia pass complete to Junior Sherrill for 5 yds to the VAN 30
94.0%
0.0
Q4 2:53
Diego Pavia pass incomplete
93.9%
-0.1
Q4 2:41
Diego Pavia pass incomplete to Tre Richardson
93.9%
0.0
Q4 2:36
Pavia, Diego pass pass intended for Richardson, Tre intercepted by Mincey, Zavier at the VAN42, Mincey, Zavier return 30 yards to the VAN12, PENALTY ALA holding 10 yards to the VAN40, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN VAN.
93.9%
0.0
Q4 2:36
Vanderbilt Penalty, Personal Foul (-15 Yards) to the VAN 25
93.9%
0.0
Q4 2:17
Diego Pavia pass complete to Tre Richardson for 6 yds to the VAN 31
93.9%
0.0
Q4 2:11
Diego Pavia pass incomplete to Richie Hoskins
93.8%
-0.1
Q4 2:00
Diego Pavia pass complete to Eli Stowers for 8 yds to the VAN 39 for a 1ST down
93.8%
0.0
Q4 1:49
Diego Pavia sacked by Justin Jefferson for a loss of 11 yards to the VAN 28
94.0%
+0.2
Q4 1:34
Diego Pavia pass incomplete to Eli Stowers
94.0%
0.0
Q4 1:26
Diego Pavia pass incomplete to Tre Richardson
94.0%
0.0
Q4 1:18
Diego Pavia pass incomplete to Eli Stowers
94.0%
0.0
ALA · Drive 18TD · 7 plays · 28 yds
Q4 1:11
Jam Miller run for 4 yds to the VAN 24
94.2%
+0.2
Q4 1:11
Timeout Vanderbilt, clock 01:11
94.2%
0.0
Q4 1:09
Jam Miller run for 3 yds to the VAN 21
94.2%
0.0
Q4 1:09
Timeout Vanderbilt, clock 01:09
94.2%
0.0
Q4 0:55
Jam Miller run for 1 yd to the VAN 20
94.3%
+0.1
Q4 0:24
Timeout Alabama, clock 00:24
93.9%
-0.3
Q4 0:17
Jam Miller run for 20 yds for a TD (Conor Talty KICK)
97.4%
+3.5
VAN · Drive 19END OF GAME · 3 plays · 15 yds
Q4 0:17
Conor Talty kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
97.5%
0.0
Q4 0:10
Diego Pavia pass complete to Sedrick Alexander for 7 yds to the VAN 32
94.6%
-2.8
Q4 0:00
Diego Pavia pass complete to Brycen Coleman for 8 yds to the VAN 40 for a 1ST down
94.6%
0.0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:17
Ty Simpson pass complete to Germie Bernard for 27 yds for a TD (Conor Talty KICK)
+22.3
TD · Q2 1:33
Diego Pavia pass complete to Sedrick Alexander for 4 yds for a TD (Brock Taylor KICK)
-19.6
TD · Q2 9:22
Ty Simpson pass complete to Ryan Williams for 14 yds for a TD (Conor Talty KICK)
+17.8