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USU

Utah State 35 at Vanderbilt 55

VAN
2025 · Week 5 · Sep 27, 2025 · FirstBank Stadium
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Win probability · VAN
modelVAN aheadUSU aheadconfidence bandkey playVAN scoreUSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 8:00 · Landon Rehkow pass complete to Josh Sterzer for 6 yds Josh Sterzer fumbled, recovered by USU Noah Avinger
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+45.0+22.50−22.5−45.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 101Pregame prior+23.2Home team on offense+16.6Score differential+5.6Garbage-time factor+4.0Blowout margin+0.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+5.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 6:14: Diego Pavia run for 6 yds for a TD (Brock Taylor KICK) — VAN win probability +5.0 pts (now 89%) (top driver: VAN has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 2:18: Diego Pavia pass complete to Junior Sherrill for 18 yds for a TD (Brock Taylor KICK) — VAN win probability +4.0 pts (now 91%) (top driver: VAN has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 1:20: Diego Pavia pass complete to Junior Sherrill for 18 yds for a TD (Brock Taylor KICK) — VAN win probability +3.7 pts (now 94%) (top driver: VAN has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 0:20: Bryson Barnes pass complete to Braden Pegan for 9 yds for a TD (Tanner Rinker KICK) — USU win probability +5.2 pts (now 14%) (top driver: USU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 9:32: Diego Pavia pass complete to Eli Stowers for 10 yds for a TD (Brock Taylor KICK) — VAN win probability +5.2 pts (now 97%) (top driver: VAN has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
VAN made the numbers' call on 2 of 3USU made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 13:36USU 4th & 6 at USU 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.3%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.3%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:40VAN 4th & 6 at VAN 19, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.1%−0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.2%
    average punt
  3. Q2 4:32USU 4th & 10 at USU 10, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.6%−0.7
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.3%
    average punt
  4. Q2 1:43USU 4th & 14 at USU 21, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.3%−1.2
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.5%
    average punt
  5. Q3 8:00USU 4th & 7 at USU 28, down 17
    Close callWent for it · 5.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.2%−0.5
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    5.7%
    average punt
  6. Q3 4:13VAN 4th & 13 at USU 13, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 95.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.0%−0.7
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    95.7%
    85% to make
    Punt
    93.0%−2.7
    average punt
  7. Q3 3:22USU 4th & 4 at USU 31, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.2%−0.2
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.5%
    average punt
  8. Q4 10:50USU 4th & 11 at VAN 47, down 27
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  9. Q4 9:14VAN 4th & 3 at VAN 17, up 27
    Close callPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.8%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
VAN made the numbers' call on 7 of 7USU made the numbers' call on 3 of 5
  1. Q1 7:45USU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    9.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    9.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 1:29VAN Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 11:22USU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    16.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    16.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 6:14VAN Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 2:18VAN Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 1:20VAN Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 0:20USU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    11.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    11.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 9:32VAN Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 1:19VAN Touchdown, up 26 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 8:23USU Touchdown, down 21 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    1.1%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    1.1%
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 5:21VAN Touchdown, up 26 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  12. Q4 0:55USU Touchdown, down 21 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.5%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.6%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
USUDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:145% → 5%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
94.9%
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Javen Jacobs for 2 yds to the USU 27Similar
Q1 14:23
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+2
94.8%
Bryson Barnes run for 2 yds to the USU 29Similar
Q1 13:45
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
94.7%
Bryson Barnes pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:36
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
94.7%
Landon Rehkow punt for 56 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:4695% → 94%
Q1 13:26
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+5
94.6%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Eli Stowers for 5 yds to the VAN 20Similar
Q1 12:54
2ND & 5
OWN 20
+4
94.5%
Sedrick Alexander run for 4 yds to the VAN 24Similar
Q1 12:17
3RD & 1
OWN 24
-5
94.4%
PENALTY Vandy False Start (Glass,Isaia) 5 yards from Vandy24 to Vandy19. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 11:48
3RD & 6
OWN 19
0
94.2%
Diego Pavia pass incomplete to Eli StowersSimilar
Q1 11:40
4TH & 6
OWN 19
0
94.2%
Nick Haberer punt for 56 yds , Javen Jacobs returns for no gain to the USU 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 3TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 3:486% → 8%
Q1 11:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
94.2%
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Braden Pegan for 8 yds to the USU 33Similar
Q1 11:13
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+3
94.1%
Miles Davis run for 3 yds to the USU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:35
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+14
93.8%
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Braden Pegan for 14 yds to the VAN 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:08
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+7
93.7%
Bryson Barnes run for 7 yds to the VAN 28Similar
Q1 9:33
2ND & 3
OPP 28
-5
93.5%
Noah White run for a loss of 5 yards to the VAN 33Similar
Q1 8:52
3RD & 8
OPP 33
+14
93.4%
Bryson Barnes run for 14 yds to the VAN 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:23
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+1
93.2%
Bryson Barnes run for 1 yd to the VAN 18Similar
Q1 7:45
2ND & 9
OPP 18
+18
92.2%
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Miles Davis for 18 yds for a TD (Tanner Rinker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 4TD
11 plays · 59 yds · 5:5393% → 92%
Q1 7:22
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
92.5%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Tre Richardson for 5 yds to the VAN 46Similar
Q1 6:49
2ND & 5
OWN 46
+3
92.3%
Diego Pavia run for 3 yds to the VAN 49Similar
Q1 6:05
3RD & 2
OWN 49
+3
92.0%
Sedrick Alexander run for 3 yds to the USU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:20
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+1
91.8%
Makhilyn Young run for 1 yd to the USU 47Similar
Q1 4:36
2ND & 9
OPP 47
+11
91.5%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Tre Richardson for 11 yds to the USU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:57
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+3
91.2%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Richie Hoskins for 3 yds to the USU 33Similar
Q1 3:19
2ND & 7
OPP 33
+16
91.1%
AJ Newberry run for 16 yds to the USU 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:38
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+6
90.7%
AJ Newberry run for 6 yds to the USU 11Similar
Q1 1:58
2ND & 4
OPP 11
-10
90.4%
(02:01) No Huddle-Shotgun Pavia,Diego rush left for 8 yards gain to the USU03 (Tucker,Dylan), out of bounds PENALTY Vandy Holding (Glass,Isaia) 10 yards from USU11 to USU21. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 1:29
2ND & 14
OPP 21
+21
91.8%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Junior Sherrill for 21 yds for a TD (Brock Taylor KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 5TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 5:009% → 15%
Q1 1:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
91.1%
Miles Davis run for 3 yds to the USU 28Similar
Q1 0:51
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
90.8%
Javen Jacobs run for no gain to the USU 28Similar
Q1 0:15
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
90.8%
Bryson Barnes pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:05
4TH & 7
OWN 28
-10
90.9%
(00:09) Rehkow,Landon punt 0 yards to the USU28 blocked by Howard,Austin recovered by USU Rehkow,Landon at USU01 No Huddle Rehkow,Landon rush middle for 27 yards loss to the USU01 fumbled by Rehkow,Landon at USU01 recovered by USU Rehkow,Landon at USU01, End Of Play PENALTY Vandy Holding (Hinton,Vanzale) 10 yards from USU28 to USU38, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+1
90.3%
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Miles Davis for 1 yd to the USU 39Similar
Q2 14:53
2ND & 9
OWN 39
+3
90.3%
Miles Davis run for 3 yds to the USU 42Similar
Q2 14:24
3RD & 6
OWN 42
+1
90.0%
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Javen Jacobs for 1 yd to the USU 43Similar
Q2 13:44
4TH & 5
OWN 43
+15
90.1%
(13:48) Rehkow,Landon punt 36 yards to the Vandy21 PENALTY Vandy Roughing The Kicker (Sewell,Marlen) 15 yards from USU43 to Vandy42, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 13:20
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+25
89.2%
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Broc Lane for 25 yds to the VAN 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:08
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-5
88.9%
(13:11) No Huddle-Shotgun Davis,Miles rush left for 3 yards gain to the Vandy14 (Heard,CJ; Patterson,Langston) PENALTY USU Illegal Formation 5 yards from Vandy17 to Vandy22. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:38
1ST & 15
OPP 22
-1
88.7%
Bryson Barnes sacked by Linus Zunk for a loss of 1 yard to the VAN 23Similar
Q2 12:08
2ND & 16
OPP 23
+13
88.7%
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Broc Lane for 13 yds to the VAN 10Similar
Q2 11:22
3RD & 3
OPP 10
+10
84.6%
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Josh Sterzer for 10 yds for a TD (Tanner Rinker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 6TD
10 plays · 65 yds · 5:0186% → 89%
Q2 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
85.8%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Junior Sherrill for 7 yds to the VAN 42Similar
Q2 10:36
2ND & 3
OWN 42
+4
86.1%
Makhilyn Young run for 4 yds to the VAN 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-1
85.2%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Makhilyn Young for a loss of 1 yard to the VAN 45Similar
Q2 9:03
2ND & 11
OWN 45
+30
84.2%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Tre Richardson for 30 yds to the USU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:19
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+7
85.1%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Tre Richardson for 7 yds to the USU 18Similar
Q2 7:41
2ND & 3
OPP 18
+8
84.1%
Sedrick Alexander run for 8 yds to the USU 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+4
83.5%
Diego Pavia run for 4 yds to the USU 6Similar
Q2 6:14
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
88.6%
Diego Pavia run for 6 yds for a TD (Brock Taylor KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:2814% → 14%
Q2 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
85.7%
Bryson Barnes run for no gain to the USU 10Similar
Q2 5:24
2ND & 10
OWN 10
0
85.5%
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Braden Pegan for no gain to the USU 10Similar
Q2 4:43
3RD & 10
OWN 10
0
85.5%
Bryson Barnes pass incomplete to Brady BoydSimilar
Q2 4:32
4TH & 10
OWN 10
+2
85.8%
Landon Rehkow punt for 50 yds , Martel Hight returns for 2 yds to the VAN 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 8TD
6 plays · 58 yds · 2:0487% → 91%
Q2 4:22
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+8
87.2%
Brycen Coleman run for 8 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 4:01
2ND & 2
50
+5
87.4%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Sedrick Alexander for 5 yds to the USU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:21
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
87.2%
Diego Pavia pass incomplete to Tre RichardsonSimilar
Q2 3:12
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+14
87.0%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Eli Stowers for 14 yds to the USU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:32
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+13
87.0%
Diego Pavia run for 13 yds to the USU 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:18
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+18
91.0%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Junior Sherrill for 18 yds for a TD (Brock Taylor KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 9PUNT
7 plays · -4 yds · 0:2611% → 10%
Q2 2:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
89.5%
Bryson Barnes pass incomplete to Braden PeganSimilar
Q2 2:03
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-13
89.6%
Bryson Barnes sacked by Miles Capers for a loss of 13 yards to the USU 12Similar
Q2 1:52
3RD & 23
OWN 12
+9
90.0%
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Braden Pegan for 9 yds to the USU 21Similar
Q2 1:43
4TH & 14
OWN 21
+7
90.2%
Landon Rehkow punt for 46 yds , Martel Hight returns for 7 yds to the VAN 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 10TD
2 plays · 60 yds · 0:1691% → 94%
Q2 1:36
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+12
90.7%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Junior Sherrill for 12 yds to the USU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:20
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+18
94.4%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Junior Sherrill for 18 yds for a TD (Brock Taylor KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 11TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 0:527% → 14%
Q2 1:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+19
92.6%
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Braden Pegan for 19 yds to the USU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:58
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+15
92.3%
Bryson Barnes run for 15 yds to the VAN 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:42
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+8
91.8%
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Broc Lane for 8 yds to the VAN 33Similar
Q2 0:35
2ND & 2
OPP 33
+24
91.6%
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Javen Jacobs for 24 yds to the VAN 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
86.4%
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Braden Pegan for 9 yds for a TD (Tanner Rinker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 12FG
3 plays · 33 yds · 0:0490% → 92%
Q2 0:04
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+33
90.3%
Diego Pavia run for 33 yds to the USU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+46
92.2%
Brock Taylor 46 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 13TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 5:2191% → 97%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
91.3%
Sedrick Alexander run for no gain to the VAN 25Similar
Q3 14:13
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+13
91.1%
Diego Pavia run for 13 yds to the VAN 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:24
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
91.6%
Diego Pavia pass incomplete to Richie HoskinsSimilar
Q3 13:16
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+8
91.4%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Tre Richardson for 8 yds to the VAN 46Similar
Q3 12:37
3RD & 2
OWN 46
+5
91.5%
Sedrick Alexander run for 5 yds to the USU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:49
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+3
91.8%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Eli Stowers for 3 yds to the USU 46Similar
Q3 11:11
2ND & 7
OPP 46
+3
91.8%
Sedrick Alexander run for 3 yds to the USU 43Similar
Q3 10:22
3RD & 4
OPP 43
+6
91.4%
Diego Pavia run for 6 yds to the USU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:03
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
91.4%
Diego Pavia pass incomplete to Eli StowersSimilar
Q3 9:52
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+27
91.2%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Eli Stowers for 27 yds to the USU 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
96.5%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Eli Stowers for 10 yds for a TD (Brock Taylor KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 14DOWNS
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:255% → 5%
Q3 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
94.9%
Miles Davis run for a loss of 2 yards to the USU 23Similar
Q3 8:50
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+5
95.0%
Bryson Barnes run for 5 yds to the USU 28Similar
Q3 8:08
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
95.1%
Bryson Barnes pass incomplete to Braden PeganSimilar
Q3 8:00
4TH & 7
OWN 28
+6
95.1%
Landon Rehkow pass complete to Josh Sterzer for 6 yds Josh Sterzer fumbled, recovered by USU Noah AvingerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 15FG
8 plays · 21 yds · 3:2497% → 98%
Q3 7:37
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+5
96.6%
Diego Pavia run for 5 yds to the USU 29Similar
Q3 7:10
2ND & 5
OPP 29
0
96.6%
Diego Pavia pass incomplete to Eli StowersSimilar
Q3 7:02
3RD & 5
OPP 29
+9
96.6%
Sedrick Alexander run for 9 yds to the USU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:13
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+10
96.7%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Richie Hoskins for 10 yds to the USU 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+1
96.7%
Sedrick Alexander run for 1 yd to the USU 9Similar
Q3 4:58
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
0
96.8%
Diego Pavia pass incomplete to Eli StowersSimilar
Q3 4:48
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
-4
96.7%
Diego Pavia sacked by John Miller for a loss of 4 yards to the USU 13Similar
Q3 4:13
4TH & GOAL
OPP 13
+31
97.7%
Brock Taylor 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:452% → 2%
Q3 4:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
97.9%
Bryson Barnes pass incomplete to Noah WhiteSimilar
Q3 4:05
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
97.9%
Bryson Barnes pass incomplete to Broc LaneSimilar
Q3 3:55
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+6
98.0%
Noah White run for 6 yds to the USU 31Similar
Q3 3:22
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
97.9%
Landon Rehkow punt for 58 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 17TD
5 plays · 89 yds · 1:4798% → 100%
Q3 3:06
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+11
97.9%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Tristen Brown for 11 yds to the VAN 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:29
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+13
98.0%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Tre Richardson for 13 yds to the VAN 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:04
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
98.1%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Makhilyn Young for 3 yds to the VAN 38Similar
Q3 1:42
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+9
97.8%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Eli Stowers for 9 yds to the VAN 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:19
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+53
99.8%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Richie Hoskins for 53 yds for a TD (Brock Taylor KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 18FUMBLE
4 plays · 18 yds · 1:180% → 0%
Q3 1:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
99.9%
Noah White run for 4 yds to the USU 29Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
-4
99.9%
Miles Davis run for a loss of 4 yards to the USU 25Similar
Q4 14:48
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+18
99.9%
Bryson Barnes run for 18 yds to the USU 43 Bryson Barnes fumbled, recovered by USU Kolbey TaylorSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 19INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 14:39
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
99.8%
Diego Pavia pass intercepted, touchback. Noah Avinger return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 20PUNT
8 plays · 33 yds · 3:390% → 0%
Q4 14:29
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
99.9%
Jacob Conover pass complete to Javen Jacobs for 7 yds to the USU 27Similar
Q4 13:52
2ND & 3
OWN 27
-1
99.9%
Javen Jacobs run for a loss of 1 yard to the USU 26Similar
Q4 13:17
3RD & 4
OWN 26
+6
99.9%
Javen Jacobs run for 6 yds to the USU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:48
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+22
99.9%
Jacob Conover pass complete to Broc Lane for 22 yds to the VAN 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:21
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
99.9%
Jacob Conover pass incomplete to Broc LaneSimilar
Q4 12:14
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+2
99.9%
Jacob Conover pass complete to Broc Lane for 2 yds to the VAN 48Similar
Q4 11:35
3RD & 12
OPP 48
+1
99.9%
Miles Davis run for 1 yd to the VAN 47Similar
Q4 10:50
4TH & 11
OPP 47
0
99.9%
Landon Rehkow punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Martel Hight at the VAN 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:21100% → 100%
Q4 10:35
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+3
99.9%
Kayleb Barnett run for 3 yds to the VAN 13Similar
Q4 9:57
2ND & 7
OWN 13
0
99.9%
Diego Pavia pass incomplete to Martel HightSimilar
Q4 9:46
3RD & 7
OWN 13
+4
99.9%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Richie Hoskins for 4 yds to the VAN 17Similar
Q4 9:14
4TH & 3
OWN 17
0
99.9%
Nick Haberer punt for 55 yds, fair catch by Javen Jacobs at the USU 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 22TD
2 plays · 72 yds · 0:400% → 1%
Q4 9:03
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+58
99.9%
Javen Jacobs run for 58 yds to the VAN 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:23
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
98.8%
Jacob Conover pass complete to Brady Boyd for 14 yds for a TD (Tanner Rinker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 23TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:4999% → 100%
Q4 8:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+48
99.0%
Jamezell Lassiter run for 48 yds to the USU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:35
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+4
99.2%
Jamezell Lassiter run for 4 yds to the USU 23Similar
Q4 6:58
2ND & 6
OPP 23
+4
99.2%
Makhilyn Young run for 4 yds to the USU 19Similar
Q4 6:16
3RD & 2
OPP 19
+4
99.2%
AJ Newberry run for 4 yds to the USU 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:33
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
99.3%
Blaze Berlowitz pass incomplete to Kayleb BarnettSimilar
Q4 5:21
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+15
99.9%
Makhilyn Young run for 15 yds for a TD (Justin Dewers KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 24TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 4:160% → 1%
Q4 5:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
99.9%
Jacob Conover sacked by Linus Zunk for a loss of 2 yards to the USU 23Similar
Q4 4:32
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+8
99.9%
Jacob Conover pass complete to Javen Jacobs for 8 yds to the USU 31Similar
Q4 3:52
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+8
99.9%
Jacob Conover pass complete to Anthony Garcia for 8 yds to the USU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:24
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+7
99.9%
Jacob Conover pass complete to Braden Pegan for 7 yds to the USU 46Similar
Q4 2:59
2ND & 3
OWN 46
+5
99.9%
Jacob Conover pass complete to Anthony Garcia for 5 yds to the VAN 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:38
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+17
99.9%
Jacob Conover pass complete to Broc Lane for 17 yds to the VAN 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:10
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
99.9%
Jacob Conover pass incomplete to Braden PeganSimilar
Q4 2:00
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+1
99.9%
Jacob Conover run for 1 yd to the VAN 31Similar
Q4 1:55
3RD & 9
OPP 31
+10
99.9%
(01:58) No Huddle-Shotgun Conover,Jacob pass incomplete short middle to Boyd,Brady thrown to Vandy15 QB hurried by Zunk,Linus PENALTY Vandy Holding (Lackey,Jaylin) 10 yards from Vandy31 to Vandy21, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 1:48
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+15
99.9%
Anthony Garcia pass complete to Broc Lane for 15 yds to the VAN 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
99.9%
Jacob Conover pass complete to Brady Boyd for no gain to the VAN 6Similar
Q4 1:01
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
99.9%
Jacob Conover pass incomplete to Braden PeganSimilar
Q4 0:55
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
99.3%
Jacob Conover pass complete to Javen Jacobs for 6 yds for a TD (Tanner Rinker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 25END OF GAME
3 plays · -3 yds · 0:42100% → 100%
Q4 0:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
99.8%
B. Berlowitz takes a kneeSimilar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 12
OWN 23
-1
99.8%
B. Berlowitz takes a kneeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:20
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Braden Pegan for 9 yds for a TD (Tanner Rinker KICK)
-5.2
TD · Q3 9:32
Diego Pavia pass complete to Eli Stowers for 10 yds for a TD (Brock Taylor KICK)
+5.2
TD · Q2 6:14
Diego Pavia run for 6 yds for a TD (Brock Taylor KICK)
+5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com