USU
Utah State 35 at Vanderbilt 55
VAN2025 · Week 5 · Sep 27, 2025 · FirstBank Stadium
Speed4x
Win probability · VAN
modelVAN aheadUSU aheadconfidence bandkey play
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USU · Drive 1PUNT · 5 plays · 4 yds
Q1 15:00
Brock Taylor kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
90.6%
0.0
Q1 14:50
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Javen Jacobs for 2 yds to the USU 27
88.7%
-1.9
Q1 14:23
Bryson Barnes run for 2 yds to the USU 29
88.3%
-0.4
Q1 13:45
Bryson Barnes pass incomplete
88.3%
0.0
Q1 13:36
Landon Rehkow punt for 56 yds
88.3%
0.0
VAN · Drive 2PUNT · 5 plays · 4 yds
Q1 13:26
Diego Pavia pass complete to Eli Stowers for 5 yds to the VAN 20
90.5%
+2.2
Q1 12:54
Sedrick Alexander run for 4 yds to the VAN 24
90.5%
0.0
Q1 12:17
PENALTY Vandy False Start (Glass,Isaia) 5 yards from Vandy24 to Vandy19. NO PLAY.
90.4%
-0.1
Q1 11:48
Diego Pavia pass incomplete to Eli Stowers
90.4%
0.0
Q1 11:40
Nick Haberer punt for 56 yds , Javen Jacobs returns for no gain to the USU 25
90.2%
-0.2
USU · Drive 3TD · 8 plays · 75 yds
Q1 11:33
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Braden Pegan for 8 yds to the USU 33
88.0%
-2.2
Q1 11:13
Miles Davis run for 3 yds to the USU 36 for a 1ST down
88.0%
0.0
Q1 10:35
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Braden Pegan for 14 yds to the VAN 35 for a 1ST down
86.9%
-1.1
Q1 10:08
Bryson Barnes run for 7 yds to the VAN 28
86.8%
-0.1
Q1 9:33
Noah White run for a loss of 5 yards to the VAN 33
86.8%
0.0
Q1 8:52
Bryson Barnes run for 14 yds to the VAN 19 for a 1ST down
86.6%
-0.2
Q1 8:23
Bryson Barnes run for 1 yd to the VAN 18
86.6%
0.0
Q1 7:45
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Miles Davis for 18 yds for a TD (Tanner Rinker KICK)
77.7%
-8.9
VAN · Drive 4TD · 11 plays · 59 yds
Q1 7:36
Zachary Robbins kickoff for 65 yds , Tre Richardson return for 41 yds to the VAN 41
78.9%
+1.2
Q1 7:22
Diego Pavia pass complete to Tre Richardson for 5 yds to the VAN 46
79.5%
+0.6
Q1 6:49
Diego Pavia run for 3 yds to the VAN 49
79.0%
-0.5
Q1 6:05
Sedrick Alexander run for 3 yds to the USU 48 for a 1ST down
76.9%
-2.1
Q1 5:20
Makhilyn Young run for 1 yd to the USU 47
77.4%
+0.5
Q1 4:36
Diego Pavia pass complete to Tre Richardson for 11 yds to the USU 36 for a 1ST down
77.3%
-0.1
Q1 3:57
Diego Pavia pass complete to Richie Hoskins for 3 yds to the USU 33
77.7%
+0.4
Q1 3:19
AJ Newberry run for 16 yds to the USU 17 for a 1ST down
77.7%
0.0
Q1 2:38
AJ Newberry run for 6 yds to the USU 11
77.5%
-0.2
Q1 1:58
(02:01) No Huddle-Shotgun Pavia,Diego rush left for 8 yards gain to the USU03 (Tucker,Dylan), out of bounds PENALTY Vandy Holding (Glass,Isaia) 10 yards from USU11 to USU21. NO PLAY.
77.1%
-0.4
Q1 1:29
Diego Pavia pass complete to Junior Sherrill for 21 yds for a TD (Brock Taylor KICK)
88.7%
+11.6
USU · Drive 5TD · 15 plays · 75 yds
Q1 1:29
Brock Taylor kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
87.6%
-1.0
Q1 1:22
Miles Davis run for 3 yds to the USU 28
84.6%
-3.0
Q1 0:51
Javen Jacobs run for no gain to the USU 28
84.6%
0.0
Q1 0:15
Bryson Barnes pass incomplete
84.4%
-0.2
Q1 0:05
(00:09) Rehkow,Landon punt 0 yards to the USU28 blocked by Howard,Austin recovered by USU Rehkow,Landon at USU01 No Huddle Rehkow,Landon rush middle for 27 yards loss to the USU01 fumbled by Rehkow,Landon at USU01 recovered by USU Rehkow,Landon at USU01, End Of Play PENALTY Vandy Holding (Hinton,Vanzale) 10 yards from USU28 to USU38, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.
84.4%
0.0
Q1 0:00
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Miles Davis for 1 yd to the USU 39
83.7%
-0.7
Q2 14:53
Miles Davis run for 3 yds to the USU 42
83.7%
0.0
Q2 14:24
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Javen Jacobs for 1 yd to the USU 43
83.2%
-0.5
Q2 13:44
(13:48) Rehkow,Landon punt 36 yards to the Vandy21 PENALTY Vandy Roughing The Kicker (Sewell,Marlen) 15 yards from USU43 to Vandy42, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.
83.4%
+0.2
Q2 13:20
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Broc Lane for 25 yds to the VAN 17 for a 1ST down
82.5%
-0.9
Q2 13:08
(13:11) No Huddle-Shotgun Davis,Miles rush left for 3 yards gain to the Vandy14 (Heard,CJ; Patterson,Langston) PENALTY USU Illegal Formation 5 yards from Vandy17 to Vandy22. NO PLAY.
82.5%
0.0
Q2 12:38
Bryson Barnes sacked by Linus Zunk for a loss of 1 yard to the VAN 23
82.5%
0.0
Q2 12:08
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Broc Lane for 13 yds to the VAN 10
82.5%
0.0
Q2 11:28
Timeout Vanderbilt, clock 11:28
84.1%
+1.6
Q2 11:22
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Josh Sterzer for 10 yds for a TD (Tanner Rinker KICK)
74.7%
-9.5
VAN · Drive 6TD · 10 plays · 65 yds
Q2 11:22
Zachary Robbins kickoff for 58 yds
76.1%
+1.4
Q2 11:15
Diego Pavia pass complete to Junior Sherrill for 7 yds to the VAN 42
76.2%
+0.1
Q2 10:36
Makhilyn Young run for 4 yds to the VAN 46 for a 1ST down
76.2%
0.0
Q2 9:45
Diego Pavia pass complete to Makhilyn Young for a loss of 1 yard to the VAN 45
74.8%
-1.4
Q2 9:03
Diego Pavia pass complete to Tre Richardson for 30 yds to the USU 25 for a 1ST down
74.8%
0.0
Q2 8:19
Diego Pavia pass complete to Tre Richardson for 7 yds to the USU 18
76.3%
+1.5
Q2 7:41
Sedrick Alexander run for 8 yds to the USU 10 for a 1ST down
74.9%
-1.4
Q2 6:57
Diego Pavia run for 4 yds to the USU 6
74.6%
-0.3
Q2 6:14
Diego Pavia run for 6 yds for a TD (Brock Taylor KICK)
87.3%
+12.7
Q2 6:07
Brock Taylor kickoff for 62 yds , Javen Jacobs return for 17 yds to the USU 48 Utah State Penalty, Offensive Holding (10 Yards) to the USU 10
69.5%
-17.8
USU · Drive 7PUNT · 4 plays · 0 yds
Q2 6:00
Bryson Barnes run for no gain to the USU 10
81.1%
+11.6
Q2 5:24
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Braden Pegan for no gain to the USU 10
81.1%
0.0
Q2 4:43
Bryson Barnes pass incomplete to Brady Boyd
81.1%
0.0
Q2 4:32
Landon Rehkow punt for 50 yds , Martel Hight returns for 2 yds to the VAN 42
81.1%
0.0
VAN · Drive 8TD · 6 plays · 58 yds
Q2 4:22
Brycen Coleman run for 8 yds to the 50 yard line
86.5%
+5.5
Q2 4:01
Diego Pavia pass complete to Sedrick Alexander for 5 yds to the USU 45 for a 1ST down
86.4%
-0.1
Q2 3:21
Diego Pavia pass incomplete to Tre Richardson
86.9%
+0.4
Q2 3:12
Diego Pavia pass complete to Eli Stowers for 14 yds to the USU 31 for a 1ST down
86.9%
0.0
Q2 2:32
Diego Pavia run for 13 yds to the USU 18 for a 1ST down
85.8%
-1.1
Q2 2:18
Diego Pavia pass complete to Junior Sherrill for 18 yds for a TD (Brock Taylor KICK)
92.8%
+7.0
USU · Drive 9PUNT · 7 plays · -4 yds
Q2 2:18
Brock Taylor kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
92.5%
-0.3
Q2 2:09
Bryson Barnes pass incomplete to Braden Pegan
91.7%
-0.8
Q2 2:03
Bryson Barnes sacked by Miles Capers for a loss of 13 yards to the USU 12
91.7%
0.0
Q2 2:00
Timeout Vanderbilt, clock 02:00
91.8%
+0.1
Q2 1:55
Timeout Vanderbilt, clock 01:55
91.8%
0.0
Q2 1:52
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Braden Pegan for 9 yds to the USU 21
91.8%
0.0
Q2 1:43
Landon Rehkow punt for 46 yds , Martel Hight returns for 7 yds to the VAN 40
91.8%
0.0
VAN · Drive 10TD · 2 plays · 60 yds
Q2 1:36
Diego Pavia pass complete to Junior Sherrill for 12 yds to the USU 48 for a 1ST down
93.1%
+1.3
Q2 1:20
Diego Pavia pass complete to Junior Sherrill for 18 yds for a TD (Brock Taylor KICK)
98.6%
+5.5
USU · Drive 11TD · 7 plays · 75 yds
Q2 1:20
Brock Taylor kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
98.6%
0.0
Q2 1:12
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Braden Pegan for 19 yds to the USU 44 for a 1ST down
97.5%
-1.1
Q2 0:58
Bryson Barnes run for 15 yds to the VAN 41 for a 1ST down
97.5%
0.0
Q2 0:43
Timeout Vanderbilt, clock 00:43
97.2%
-0.3
Q2 0:42
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Broc Lane for 8 yds to the VAN 33
97.3%
+0.1
Q2 0:35
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Javen Jacobs for 24 yds to the VAN 9 for a 1ST down
97.4%
+0.1
Q2 0:20
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Braden Pegan for 9 yds for a TD (Tanner Rinker KICK)
90.7%
-6.7
VAN · Drive 12FG · 3 plays · 33 yds
Q2 0:15
Zachary Robbins kickoff for 36 yds , Jaylon Stone return for 10 yds to the VAN 39
91.5%
+0.8
Q2 0:04
Diego Pavia run for 33 yds to the USU 28 for a 1ST down
92.9%
+1.4
Q2 0:00
Brock Taylor 46 yd FG GOOD
96.9%
+4.0
VAN · Drive 13TD · 13 plays · 75 yds
Q3 15:00
Zachary Robbins kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
94.2%
-2.7
Q3 14:53
Sedrick Alexander run for no gain to the VAN 25
96.2%
+2.0
Q3 14:13
Diego Pavia run for 13 yds to the VAN 38 for a 1ST down
96.2%
0.0
Q3 13:24
Diego Pavia pass incomplete to Richie Hoskins
96.5%
+0.3
Q3 13:16
Diego Pavia pass complete to Tre Richardson for 8 yds to the VAN 46
96.5%
0.0
Q3 12:37
Sedrick Alexander run for 5 yds to the USU 49 for a 1ST down
96.5%
0.0
Q3 11:49
Diego Pavia pass complete to Eli Stowers for 3 yds to the USU 46
96.5%
0.0
Q3 11:11
Sedrick Alexander run for 3 yds to the USU 43
96.3%
-0.2
Q3 10:22
Diego Pavia run for 6 yds to the USU 37 for a 1ST down
96.3%
0.0
Q3 10:11
Timeout Vanderbilt, clock 10:11
96.7%
+0.4
Q3 10:03
Diego Pavia pass incomplete to Eli Stowers
96.7%
0.0
Q3 9:52
Diego Pavia pass complete to Eli Stowers for 27 yds to the USU 10 for a 1ST down
96.7%
0.0
Q3 9:32
Diego Pavia pass complete to Eli Stowers for 10 yds for a TD (Brock Taylor KICK)
99.4%
+2.7
USU · Drive 14DOWNS · 5 plays · 9 yds
Q3 9:32
Brock Taylor kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
99.4%
0.0
Q3 9:25
Miles Davis run for a loss of 2 yards to the USU 23
98.3%
-1.1
Q3 8:50
Bryson Barnes run for 5 yds to the USU 28
98.3%
0.0
Q3 8:08
Bryson Barnes pass incomplete to Braden Pegan
98.3%
0.0
Q3 8:00
Landon Rehkow pass complete to Josh Sterzer for 6 yds Josh Sterzer fumbled, recovered by USU Noah Avinger
98.3%
0.0
VAN · Drive 15FG · 8 plays · 21 yds
Q3 7:37
Diego Pavia run for 5 yds to the USU 29
99.4%
+1.1
Q3 7:10
Diego Pavia pass incomplete to Eli Stowers
99.4%
0.0
Q3 7:02
Sedrick Alexander run for 9 yds to the USU 20 for a 1ST down
99.4%
0.0
Q3 6:13
Diego Pavia pass complete to Richie Hoskins for 10 yds to the USU 10 for a 1ST down
99.5%
+0.1
Q3 5:37
Sedrick Alexander run for 1 yd to the USU 9
99.5%
0.0
Q3 4:58
Diego Pavia pass incomplete to Eli Stowers
99.5%
0.0
Q3 4:48
Diego Pavia sacked by John Miller for a loss of 4 yards to the USU 13
99.5%
0.0
Q3 4:13
Brock Taylor 31 yd FG GOOD
99.6%
+0.1
USU · Drive 16PUNT · 5 plays · 6 yds
Q3 4:13
Justin Dewers kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
99.6%
0.0
Q3 4:07
Bryson Barnes pass incomplete to Noah White
99.1%
-0.6
Q3 4:05
Bryson Barnes pass incomplete to Broc Lane
99.1%
0.0
Q3 3:55
Noah White run for 6 yds to the USU 31
99.1%
0.0
Q3 3:22
Landon Rehkow punt for 58 yds
99.1%
0.0
VAN · Drive 17TD · 5 plays · 89 yds
Q3 3:06
Diego Pavia pass complete to Tristen Brown for 11 yds to the VAN 22 for a 1ST down
99.6%
+0.6
Q3 2:29
Diego Pavia pass complete to Tre Richardson for 13 yds to the VAN 35 for a 1ST down
99.6%
0.0
Q3 2:04
Diego Pavia pass complete to Makhilyn Young for 3 yds to the VAN 38
99.6%
0.0
Q3 1:42
Diego Pavia pass complete to Eli Stowers for 9 yds to the VAN 47 for a 1ST down
99.6%
0.0
Q3 1:19
Diego Pavia pass complete to Richie Hoskins for 53 yds for a TD (Brock Taylor KICK)
99.9%
+0.2
USU · Drive 18FUMBLE · 4 plays · 18 yds
Q3 1:14
Justin Dewers kickoff for 65 yds , Javen Jacobs return for 25 yds to the USU 25
99.9%
0.0
Q3 1:06
Noah White run for 4 yds to the USU 29
99.7%
-0.2
Q3 0:00
Miles Davis run for a loss of 4 yards to the USU 25
99.7%
0.0
Q4 14:48
Bryson Barnes run for 18 yds to the USU 43 Bryson Barnes fumbled, recovered by USU Kolbey Taylor
99.6%
0.0
VAN · Drive 19INT · 1 play · 0 yds
Q4 14:39
Diego Pavia pass intercepted, touchback. Noah Avinger return for no gain
99.8%
+0.2
USU · Drive 20PUNT · 8 plays · 33 yds
Q4 14:29
Jacob Conover pass complete to Javen Jacobs for 7 yds to the USU 27
99.6%
-0.2
Q4 13:52
Javen Jacobs run for a loss of 1 yard to the USU 26
99.7%
0.0
Q4 13:17
Javen Jacobs run for 6 yds to the USU 32 for a 1ST down
99.7%
0.0
Q4 12:48
Jacob Conover pass complete to Broc Lane for 22 yds to the VAN 46 for a 1ST down
99.7%
0.0
Q4 12:21
Jacob Conover pass incomplete to Broc Lane
99.7%
0.0
Q4 12:14
Jacob Conover pass complete to Broc Lane for 2 yds to the VAN 48
99.7%
0.0
Q4 11:35
Miles Davis run for 1 yd to the VAN 47
99.7%
0.0
Q4 10:50
Landon Rehkow punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Martel Hight at the VAN 10
99.7%
0.0
VAN · Drive 21PUNT · 4 plays · 7 yds
Q4 10:35
Kayleb Barnett run for 3 yds to the VAN 13
99.9%
+0.2
Q4 9:57
Diego Pavia pass incomplete to Martel Hight
99.9%
0.0
Q4 9:46
Diego Pavia pass complete to Richie Hoskins for 4 yds to the VAN 17
99.9%
0.0
Q4 9:14
Nick Haberer punt for 55 yds, fair catch by Javen Jacobs at the USU 28
99.9%
0.0
USU · Drive 22TD · 2 plays · 72 yds
Q4 9:03
Javen Jacobs run for 58 yds to the VAN 14 for a 1ST down
99.7%
-0.2
Q4 8:23
Jacob Conover pass complete to Brady Boyd for 14 yds for a TD (Tanner Rinker KICK)
99.2%
-0.5
VAN · Drive 23TD · 7 plays · 75 yds
Q4 8:23
Zachary Robbins kickoff for 62 yds
99.2%
0.0
Q4 8:10
Jamezell Lassiter run for 48 yds to the USU 27 for a 1ST down
99.7%
+0.6
Q4 7:35
Jamezell Lassiter run for 4 yds to the USU 23
99.8%
0.0
Q4 6:58
Makhilyn Young run for 4 yds to the USU 19
99.8%
0.0
Q4 6:16
AJ Newberry run for 4 yds to the USU 15 for a 1ST down
99.7%
0.0
Q4 5:33
Blaze Berlowitz pass incomplete to Kayleb Barnett
99.7%
0.0
Q4 5:21
Makhilyn Young run for 15 yds for a TD (Justin Dewers KICK)
99.9%
+0.1
USU · Drive 24TD · 15 plays · 75 yds
Q4 5:21
Justin Dewers kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
99.9%
0.0
Q4 5:11
Jacob Conover sacked by Linus Zunk for a loss of 2 yards to the USU 23
99.7%
-0.2
Q4 4:32
Jacob Conover pass complete to Javen Jacobs for 8 yds to the USU 31
99.7%
0.0
Q4 3:52
Jacob Conover pass complete to Anthony Garcia for 8 yds to the USU 39 for a 1ST down
99.7%
0.0
Q4 3:24
Jacob Conover pass complete to Braden Pegan for 7 yds to the USU 46
99.7%
0.0
Q4 2:59
Jacob Conover pass complete to Anthony Garcia for 5 yds to the VAN 49 for a 1ST down
99.7%
0.0
Q4 2:38
Jacob Conover pass complete to Broc Lane for 17 yds to the VAN 32 for a 1ST down
99.7%
0.0
Q4 2:10
Jacob Conover pass incomplete to Braden Pegan
99.6%
0.0
Q4 2:00
Jacob Conover run for 1 yd to the VAN 31
99.6%
0.0
Q4 2:00
Timeout Vanderbilt, clock 02:00
99.6%
0.0
Q4 1:55
(01:58) No Huddle-Shotgun Conover,Jacob pass incomplete short middle to Boyd,Brady thrown to Vandy15 QB hurried by Zunk,Linus PENALTY Vandy Holding (Lackey,Jaylin) 10 yards from Vandy31 to Vandy21, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.
99.7%
0.0
Q4 1:48
Anthony Garcia pass complete to Broc Lane for 15 yds to the VAN 6 for a 1ST down
99.7%
0.0
Q4 1:38
Jacob Conover pass complete to Brady Boyd for no gain to the VAN 6
99.6%
0.0
Q4 1:01
Jacob Conover pass incomplete to Braden Pegan
99.6%
0.0
Q4 0:55
Jacob Conover pass complete to Javen Jacobs for 6 yds for a TD (Tanner Rinker KICK)
99.2%
-0.5
VAN · Drive 25END OF GAME · 3 plays · -3 yds
Q4 0:55
Zachary Robbins kickoff for 56 yds
99.2%
0.0
Q4 0:42
B. Berlowitz takes a knee
99.7%
+0.5
Q4 0:00
B. Berlowitz takes a knee
99.7%
0.0
Biggest swings
KEY PLAY · Q2 6:07
Brock Taylor kickoff for 62 yds , Javen Jacobs return for 17 yds to the USU 48 Utah State Penalty, Offensive Holding (10 Yards) to the USU 10
-17.8
TD · Q2 6:14
Diego Pavia run for 6 yds for a TD (Brock Taylor KICK)
+12.7
TD · Q1 1:29
Diego Pavia pass complete to Junior Sherrill for 21 yds for a TD (Brock Taylor KICK)
+11.6