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AUB

Auburn 10 at Texas A&M 16

TA&M
2025 · Week 5 · Sep 27, 2025 · Kyle Field
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Win probability · TA&M
modelTA&M aheadAUB aheadconfidence bandkey playTA&M scoreAUB score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 10:05 · Hudson Kaak punt for 46 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Offense timeoutsHome team on offensePregame priorDefense timeoutsScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differential
+31.0+15.50−15.5−31.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 15Offense timeouts−2.8Home team on offense+0.8Pregame prior+20.4Defense timeouts−2.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.2Score differential+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q2 1:45: Randy Bond 49 Yd Field Goal — TA&M win probability +9.1 pts (now 45%) (top driver: offense timeouts not recorded for this play).
  2. KEY PLAY · Q3 14:55: Connor Gibbs kickoff for 57 yds , Terry Bussey return for 18 yds to the TA&M 26 — TA&M win probability +14.8 pts (now 66%) (top driver: offense timeouts not recorded for this play).
  3. TD · Q4 10:20: Jackson Arnold 2 Yd Run (Alex McPherson Kick) — AUB win probability +13.3 pts (now 20%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 2:42: Randy Bond 44 Yd Field Goal — AUB win probability +11.1 pts (now 12%) (top driver: TA&M has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 0:59: Texas A&M Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Cashius Howell) to the AUB 40 — TA&M win probability +15.3 pts (now 94%) (top driver: TA&M has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TA&M made the numbers' call on 8 of 10AUB made the numbers' call on 10 of 13
  1. Q1 14:03AUB 4th & 16 at AUB 19, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.8%−0.2
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:05AUB 4th & 2 at AUB 33, down 7
    Close callPunted · 30.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:27TA&M 4th & 18 at TA&M 32, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.8%−0.7
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.5%
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:22AUB 4th & 6 at AUB 44, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.7%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.8%
    average punt
  5. Q1 1:53TA&M 4th & 17 at TA&M 7, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.5%−1.2
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.8%
    average punt
  6. Q1 0:29AUB 4th & 11 at TA&M 44, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.2%−0.3
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    28.9%−0.5
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    29.5%
    average punt
  7. Q2 13:33TA&M 4th & 5 at TA&M 28, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.3%−0.3
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.6%
    average punt
  8. Q2 10:50AUB 4th & 10 at TA&M 14, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 29.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.3%−0.8
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    29.1%
    84% to make
    Punt
    24.9%−4.2
    average punt
  9. Q2 6:49TA&M 4th & 15 at AUB 15, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 67.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.0%−1.2
    15% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    67.2%
    83% to make
    Punt
    63.3%−3.9
    average punt
  10. Q2 4:50AUB 4th & 16 at AUB 19, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.8%−1.8
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.6%
    average punt
  11. Q2 1:45TA&M 4th & 6 at AUB 31, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 74.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.8%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    73.7%−0.1
    54% to make
    Punt
    72.3%−1.5
    average punt
  12. Q2 1:28AUB 4th & 3 at AUB 32, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.3%−0.2
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.5%
    average punt
  13. Q3 10:53TA&M 4th & 18 at AUB 32, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 83.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.8%−1.8
    13% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    83.7%
    51% to make
    Punt
    82.7%−1.0
    average punt
  14. Q3 7:58AUB 4th & 10 at TA&M 41, down 13
    Close callWent for it · 14.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    14.5%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    14.2%−0.4
    32% to make
    Punt
    14.6%
    average punt
  15. Q3 5:49TA&M 4th & 8 at TA&M 37, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.2%−1.0
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.2%
    average punt
  16. Q3 0:33AUB 4th & 12 at TA&M 37, down 13
    Close callWent for it · 10.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.6%−0.3
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    10.9%
    40% to make
    Punt
    10.7%−0.2
    average punt
  17. Q3 0:13AUB 4th & 22 at TA&M 47, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.2%−1.7
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.9%
    average punt
  18. Q4 7:12TA&M 4th & 1 at TA&M 45, up 13
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsPunted · 95.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.3%−1.1
    average punt
  19. Q4 5:15AUB 4th & 14 at AUB 9, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.1%−0.1
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.3%
    average punt
  20. Q4 2:42TA&M 4th & 9 at AUB 27, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 96.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.5%−0.2
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    96.7%
    62% to make
    Punt
    95.0%−1.7
    average punt
  21. Q4 2:25AUB 4th & 10 at AUB 25, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.6%−0.4
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.1%
    average punt
  22. Q4 1:59TA&M 4th & 11 at TA&M 27, up 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.3%−0.6
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.9%
    average punt
  23. Q4 1:02AUB 4th & 1 at AUB 31, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 6.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    5.0%−0.9
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TA&M made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 12:14TA&M Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
AUBDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · -6 yds · 0:5728% → 29%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
72.2%
Jackson Arnold pass complete to Eric Singleton Jr. for 3 yds to the AUB 28Similar
Q1 14:36
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
71.6%
Jackson Arnold pass incomplete to Eric Singleton Jr.Similar
Q1 14:32
3RD & 7
OWN 28
-9
71.6%
Jackson Arnold sacked by Daymion Sanford for a loss of 9 yards to the AUB 19Similar
Q1 14:03
4TH & 16
OWN 19
+1
71.0%
Hudson Kaak punt for 48 yds , KC Concepcion returns for 1 yd to the TA&M 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 2TD
4 plays · 66 yds · 1:4171% → 69%
Q1 13:55
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+3
70.8%
Le'Veon Moss run for 3 yds to the TA&M 37Similar
Q1 13:30
2ND & 7
OWN 37
+24
70.3%
Marcel Reed pass complete to KC Concepcion for 24 yds to the AUB 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:52
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+38
69.6%
Le'Veon Moss run for 38 yds to the AUB 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
69.2%
Le'Veon Moss 1 Yd Run (Randy Bond Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 8 yds · 2:0831% → 32%
Q1 12:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
69.5%
Jackson Arnold run for 1 yd to the AUB 26Similar
Q1 11:40
2ND & 9
OWN 26
-5
69.0%
Auburn Penalty, false start (Eric Singleton Jr.) to the AUB 21Similar
Q1 11:18
2ND & 14
OWN 21
+5
68.1%
Jackson Arnold pass complete to Cam Coleman for 5 yds to the AUB 26Similar
Q1 10:37
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+7
68.9%
Jackson Arnold pass complete to Brandon Frazier for 7 yds to the AUB 33Similar
Q1 10:05
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
68.4%
Hudson Kaak punt for 46 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 11 yds · 2:3166% → 63%
Q1 9:58
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+19
66.2%
Marcel Reed pass complete to KC Concepcion for 19 yds to the TA&M 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:16
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
65.7%
Amari Daniels run for 1 yd to the TA&M 41Similar
Q1 8:42
2ND & 9
OWN 41
+3
65.4%
Marcel Reed run for 3 yds to the TA&M 44Similar
Q1 8:03
3RD & 6
OWN 44
-12
64.8%
Marcel Reed sacked by Eric Winters for a loss of 12 yards to the TA&M 32Similar
Q1 7:27
4TH & 18
OWN 32
+6
63.3%
Tyler White punt for 46 yds , Malcolm Simmons returns for 6 yds to the AUB 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 5PUNT
7 plays · 16 yds · 2:5735% → 37%
Q1 7:19
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+5
65.5%
Jackson Arnold pass complete to Cam Coleman for 5 yds to the AUB 33Similar
Q1 6:55
2ND & 5
OWN 33
+7
64.9%
Jackson Arnold run for 7 yds to the AUB 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:27
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-5
64.4%
Auburn Penalty, false start (Xavier Chaplin) to the AUB 35Similar
Q1 6:00
1ST & 15
OWN 35
+1
64.0%
Jackson Arnold run for 1 yd to the AUB 36Similar
Q1 5:37
2ND & 14
OWN 36
+5
63.7%
Jackson Arnold run for 5 yds to the AUB 41Similar
Q1 4:56
3RD & 9
OWN 41
+3
63.0%
Eric Singleton Jr. run for 3 yds to the AUB 44Similar
Q1 4:22
4TH & 6
OWN 44
0
62.6%
Hudson Kaak punt for 42 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 6DOWNS
6 plays · -7 yds · 2:2460% → 54%
Q1 4:17
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+7
59.6%
Amari Daniels run for 7 yds to the TA&M 21Similar
Q1 3:54
2ND & 3
OWN 21
-7
59.1%
Amari Daniels run for 3 yds to the TA&M 24 Texas A&M Penalty, Offensive holding (Mark Nabou Jr.) to the TA&M 14Similar
Q1 3:23
2ND & 10
OWN 14
+1
58.3%
Jamarion Morrow run for 1 yd to the TA&M 15Similar
Q1 2:42
3RD & 9
OWN 15
-3
56.9%
Marcel Reed sacked by Keyron Crawford for a loss of 3 yards to the TA&M 12Similar
Q1 2:42
4TH & 12
OWN 12
-5
56.5%
Texas A&M Penalty, false start (Jarred Kerr) to the TA&M 7Similar
Q1 1:53
4TH & 17
OWN 7
0
53.6%
Tyler White punt for 36 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 1:1943% → 43%
Q1 1:48
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-7
57.5%
Jackson Arnold sacked by DJ Hicks for a loss of 7 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 1:06
2ND & 17
50
+6
57.3%
Jackson Arnold pass complete to Malcolm Simmons for 6 yds to the TA&M 44Similar
Q1 0:34
3RD & 11
OPP 44
0
56.6%
Jackson Arnold pass incomplete to Malcolm Simmons, broken up by Taurean YorkSimilar
Q1 0:29
4TH & 11
OPP 44
0
57.2%
Hudson Kaak punt for 40 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 8PUNT
7 plays · 24 yds · 1:4652% → 49%
Q1 0:19
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+11
51.8%
Le'Veon Moss run for 11 yds to the TA&M 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+6
51.5%
Le'Veon Moss run for 6 yds to the TA&M 21Similar
Q2 14:40
2ND & 4
OWN 21
+2
52.3%
Marcel Reed pass incomplete to KC Concepcion for a 1ST down Auburn Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Jay Crawford) to the TA&M 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:25
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+5
52.0%
Le'Veon Moss run for 5 yds to the TA&M 28Similar
Q2 14:10
2ND & 5
OWN 28
0
51.6%
Marcel Reed pass incomplete to Ashton Bethel-RomanSimilar
Q2 13:50
3RD & 5
OWN 28
0
50.6%
Marcel Reed pass incomplete to Mario CraverSimilar
Q2 13:33
4TH & 5
OWN 28
0
49.4%
Tyler White punt for 43 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 9FG
10 plays · 57 yds · 2:3845% → 46%
Q2 13:28
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+11
55.0%
Jackson Arnold pass complete to Eric Singleton Jr. for 11 yds to the AUB 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:52
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+37
53.8%
Jackson Arnold pass complete to Eric Singleton Jr. for 37 yds to the TA&M 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:35
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-10
53.0%
Damari Alston run for no gain to the TA&M 23 Auburn Penalty, Offensive holding (Izavion Miller) to the TA&M 33Similar
Q2 12:20
1ST & 20
OPP 33
0
52.6%
Jackson Arnold pass incomplete to Malcolm SimmonsSimilar
Q2 12:00
2ND & 20
OPP 33
+19
52.6%
Damari Alston run for 5 yds to the TA&M 28 for a 1ST down Texas A&M Penalty, personal foul (Albert Regis) to the TA&M 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:52
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
52.1%
Jackson Arnold pass incomplete to Malcolm SimmonsSimilar
Q2 11:45
2ND & 10
OPP 14
0
52.0%
Jackson Arnold pass incomplete to Cam ColemanSimilar
Q2 11:30
3RD & 10
OPP 14
-5
52.9%
Auburn Penalty, false start (Robert Woodyard Jr.) to the TA&M 19Similar
Q2 11:30
3RD & 15
OPP 19
+5
53.5%
Damari Alston run for 5 yds to the TA&M 14Similar
Q2 10:50
4TH & 10
OPP 14
+32
53.9%
Alex McPherson 32 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 10FG
12 plays · 60 yds · 4:0150% → 44%
Q2 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
50.3%
Amari Daniels run for 3 yds to the TA&M 28Similar
Q2 10:15
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+12
49.6%
Marcel Reed pass incomplete to Mario Craver for a 1ST down Auburn Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Kensley Louidor-Faustin) to the TA&M 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:07
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
50.7%
Marcel Reed pass incomplete to KC ConcepcionSimilar
Q2 10:02
2ND & 10
OWN 40
0
50.0%
Marcel Reed pass incomplete to Terry BusseySimilar
Q2 9:58
3RD & 10
OWN 40
+17
50.1%
Marcel Reed pass complete to Mario Craver for 17 yds to the AUB 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:23
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+33
51.4%
Rueben Owens II run for 33 yds to the AUB 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+4
52.2%
Rueben Owens II run for 4 yds to the AUB 6Similar
Q2 8:31
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
-10
51.6%
Marcel Reed run for no gain to the AUB 6 Texas A&M Penalty, Offensive holding (Dametrious Crownover) to the AUB 16Similar
Q2 8:11
2ND & GOAL
OPP 16
-2
53.6%
Marcel Reed pass complete to Mario Craver for a loss of 2 yards to the AUB 18Similar
Q2 7:31
3RD & GOAL
OPP 18
+3
51.7%
Amari Daniels run for 3 yds to the AUB 15Similar
Q2 6:49
4TH & GOAL
OPP 15
+33
44.3%
Randy Bond 33 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 11PUNT
6 plays · -6 yds · 1:5948% → 48%
Q2 6:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
51.8%
Jeremiah Cobb run for 1 yd to the AUB 26Similar
Q2 6:22
2ND & 9
OWN 26
-10
51.5%
Jackson Arnold run for no gain to the AUB 26 Auburn Penalty, Offensive holding (Preston Howard) to the AUB 16Similar
Q2 5:56
2ND & 19
OWN 16
-4
51.5%
Jackson Arnold pass complete to Brandon Frazier for a loss of 4 yards to the AUB 12Similar
Q2 5:22
3RD & 23
OWN 12
+7
52.3%
Jeremiah Cobb run for 7 yds to the AUB 19Similar
Q2 4:50
4TH & 16
OWN 19
+10
52.2%
Hudson Kaak punt for 47 yds , KC Concepcion returns for 10 yds to the TA&M 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 12FG
8 plays · 25 yds · 2:5343% → 45%
Q2 4:38
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+2
42.6%
Le'Veon Moss run for 2 yds to the TA&M 46Similar
Q2 4:04
2ND & 8
OWN 46
-9
41.8%
Le'Veon Moss run for 1 yd to the TA&M 47 Texas A&M Penalty, Offensive holding (Ar'maj Reed-Adams) to the TA&M 37Similar
Q2 3:48
2ND & 17
OWN 37
+5
40.1%
Amari Daniels run for 5 yds to the TA&M 42Similar
Q2 3:10
3RD & 12
OWN 42
+23
43.4%
Marcel Reed pass complete to Amari Niblack for 23 yds to the AUB 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:35
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+2
47.9%
Amari Daniels run for 2 yds to the AUB 33Similar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 8
OPP 33
0
37.4%
Marcel Reed pass incomplete to Ashton Bethel-RomanSimilar
Q2 1:55
3RD & 8
OPP 33
+2
36.2%
Amari Daniels run for 2 yds to the AUB 31Similar
Q2 1:45
4TH & 6
OPP 31
+49
45.4%
Randy Bond 49 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 13PUNT
8 plays · 7 yds · 0:5548% → 48%
Q2 1:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
52.0%
Jackson Arnold pass incomplete to Perry Thompson, broken up by Dezz RicksSimilar
Q2 1:38
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
52.2%
Jackson Arnold pass complete to Cam Coleman for 4 yds to the AUB 29Similar
Q2 1:33
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+3
52.2%
Jackson Arnold run for 3 yds to the AUB 32Similar
Q2 1:28
4TH & 3
OWN 32
+3
52.5%
Hudson Kaak puntSimilar
Q2 0:59
2ND & 10
OWN 38
-5
52.0%
Auburn Penalty, false start (Xavier Chaplin) to the AUB 33Similar
Q2 0:58
2ND & 15
OWN 33
+8
52.6%
Jackson Arnold run for 8 yds to the AUB 41Similar
Q2 0:49
3RD & 7
OWN 41
+19
51.9%
Hudson Kaak punt for 47 yds , KC Concepcion returns for 19 yds to the TA&M 40 Texas A&M Penalty, Offensive holding (Bravion Rogers) to the TA&M 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 14MISSED FG
5 plays · 46 yds · 0:3354% → 51%
Q2 0:37
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+15
53.9%
Rueben Owens II run for 15 yds to the TA&M 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:26
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+10
54.0%
Marcel Reed pass complete to Terry Bussey for 10 yds to the TA&M 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:12
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+12
52.3%
Marcel Reed run for 12 yds to the AUB 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:08
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+9
51.1%
Marcel Reed pass complete to Nate Boerkircher for 9 yds to the AUB 33Similar
Q2 0:04
2ND & 1
OPP 33
+50
51.2%
Randy Bond 50 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 15MISSED FG
11 plays · 42 yds · 4:0164% → 68%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
63.8%
Amari Daniels run for 5 yds to the TA&M 31Similar
Q3 14:29
2ND & 5
OWN 31
+8
63.8%
Marcel Reed pass complete to KC Concepcion for 8 yds to the TA&M 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:58
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+18
65.5%
Marcel Reed pass complete to Ashton Bethel-Roman for 18 yds to the AUB 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:18
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+19
65.8%
Marcel Reed pass complete to KC Concepcion for 19 yds to the AUB 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:36
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-10
68.6%
Le'Veon Moss run for no gain to the AUB 24 Texas A&M Penalty, Offensive holding (Chase Bisontis) to the AUB 34Similar
Q3 12:14
1ST & 20
OPP 34
-15
69.9%
Marcel Reed sacked by Chris Murray for a loss of 15 yards to the AUB 49 Texas A&M Penalty, intentional grounding (Marcel Reed) to the AUB 49Similar
Q3 12:09
2ND & 35
OPP 49
+20
68.9%
Marcel Reed pass complete to KC Concepcion for 20 yds to the AUB 29Similar
Q3 11:49
3RD & 15
OPP 29
-15
69.5%
Texas A&M Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Chase Bisontis) to the AUB 44Similar
Q3 11:38
3RD & 30
OPP 44
+12
67.9%
Marcel Reed pass complete to Mario Craver for 12 yds to the AUB 32Similar
Q3 10:53
4TH & 18
OPP 32
+49
68.3%
Randy Bond 49 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 16DOWNS
8 plays · 33 yds · 2:4233% → 36%
Q3 10:40
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
67.5%
Jackson Arnold pass complete to Eric Singleton Jr. for 4 yds to the AUB 36Similar
Q3 10:08
2ND & 6
OWN 36
+11
67.3%
Jackson Arnold pass complete to Jeremiah Cobb for 11 yds to the AUB 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:36
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
67.4%
Jeremiah Cobb run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 8:54
2ND & 7
50
+9
66.5%
Jackson Arnold run for 9 yds to the TA&M 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:11
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
61.9%
Jackson Arnold pass incomplete to Cam ColemanSimilar
Q3 8:07
2ND & 10
OPP 41
0
62.0%
Jackson Arnold pass incomplete to Malcolm SimmonsSimilar
Q3 8:02
3RD & 10
OPP 41
0
63.5%
Jackson Arnold pass incomplete to Brandon FrazierSimilar
Q3 7:58
4TH & 10
OPP 41
+6
64.2%
Jackson Arnold run for 6 yds to the TA&M 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:5965% → 65%
Q3 7:48
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
65.4%
Le'Veon Moss run for no gain to the TA&M 35Similar
Q3 7:05
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+8
65.0%
Le'Veon Moss run for 8 yds to the TA&M 43Similar
Q3 6:33
3RD & 2
OWN 43
-6
65.0%
Marcel Reed sacked by Xavier Atkins for a loss of 6 yards to the TA&M 37 Marcel Reed fumbled, recovered by TA&M Trey Zuhn III , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q3 5:49
4TH & 8
OWN 37
0
64.9%
Tyler White punt for 63 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 18PUNT
12 plays · 33 yds · 5:3336% → 27%
Q3 5:46
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
63.9%
Jeremiah Cobb run for 5 yds to the AUB 25Similar
Q3 5:09
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+14
62.5%
Jackson Arnold pass complete to Brandon Frazier for 14 yds to the AUB 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+6
64.1%
Jeremiah Cobb run for 6 yds to the AUB 45Similar
Q3 3:59
2ND & 4
OWN 45
0
63.4%
Jackson Arnold pass incomplete to Perry ThompsonSimilar
Q3 3:54
3RD & 4
OWN 45
+10
63.7%
Jackson Arnold pass incomplete to Eric Singleton Jr., broken up by Albert Regis for a 1ST down Texas A&M Penalty, Defensive holding (Tyreek Chappell) to the TA&M 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:49
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+10
62.3%
Jackson Arnold pass complete to Brandon Frazier for 10 yds to the TA&M 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:07
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+1
62.3%
Jackson Arnold pass complete to Eric Singleton Jr. for 1 yd to the TA&M 34Similar
Q3 2:33
2ND & 9
OPP 34
+1
64.6%
Jackson Arnold run for 1 yd to the TA&M 33Similar
Q3 1:49
3RD & 8
OPP 33
-5
67.4%
Jackson Arnold run for no gain to the TA&M 33 Auburn Penalty, illegal shift (Robert Woodyard Jr.) to the TA&M 38Similar
Q3 1:20
3RD & 13
OPP 38
+1
69.1%
Jackson Arnold pass complete to Malcolm Simmons for 1 yd to the TA&M 37Similar
Q3 0:33
4TH & 12
OPP 37
-10
70.3%
Jackson Arnold pass complete to Brandon Frazier for no gain to the TA&M 37 Auburn Penalty, Offensive holding (Xavier Chaplin) to the TA&M 47Similar
Q3 0:13
4TH & 22
OPP 47
0
73.2%
Hudson Kaak punt for 47 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 19INT
9 plays · 59 yds · 3:4281% → 94%
Q3 0:03
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
80.8%
Marcel Reed run for a loss of 2 yards to the TA&M 25 Marcel Reed fumbled, recovered by TA&M Le'Veon Moss Le'Veon Moss run for 7 yds to the TA&M 25Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+4
80.9%
Marcel Reed pass complete to KC Concepcion for 4 yds to the TA&M 29Similar
Q4 14:16
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+1
88.1%
Nate Boerkircher run for 1 yd to the TA&M 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+11
92.0%
Le'Veon Moss run for 11 yds to the TA&M 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:09
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+19
92.4%
Marcel Reed pass complete to KC Concepcion for 19 yds to the AUB 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:32
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+10
92.7%
Le'Veon Moss run for 10 yds to the AUB 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+6
93.6%
Amari Daniels run for 6 yds to the AUB 24Similar
Q4 11:21
2ND & 4
OPP 24
+3
93.5%
Amari Daniels run for 3 yds to the AUB 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 20TD
1 play · 2 yds · 0:0020% → 20%
Q4 10:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
80.3%
Jackson Arnold 2 Yd Run (Alex McPherson Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 21PUNT
7 plays · 20 yds · 3:0893% → 97%
Q4 10:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
93.4%
Le'Veon Moss run for 4 yds to the TA&M 29Similar
Q4 9:50
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+7
94.2%
Marcel Reed pass complete to Mario Craver for 7 yds to the TA&M 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:08
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
95.1%
Le'Veon Moss run for 4 yds to the TA&M 40Similar
Q4 8:32
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+3
95.7%
Le'Veon Moss run for 3 yds to the TA&M 43Similar
Q4 7:53
3RD & 3
OWN 43
+2
95.8%
Amari Daniels run for 2 yds to the TA&M 45Similar
Q4 7:12
4TH & 1
OWN 45
0
97.0%
Tyler White punt for 42 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · -4 yds · 1:458% → 6%
Q4 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 13
-7
92.5%
Jackson Arnold sacked by Taurean York for a loss of 7 yards to the AUB 6Similar
Q4 6:25
2ND & 17
OWN 6
+6
93.7%
Jeremiah Cobb run for 6 yds to the AUB 12Similar
Q4 5:49
3RD & 11
OWN 12
-3
93.9%
Jackson Arnold sacked by Cashius Howell for a loss of 3 yards to the AUB 9Similar
Q4 5:15
4TH & 14
OWN 9
0
94.3%
Hudson Kaak punt for 39 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 23TD
6 plays · 48 yds · 2:2698% → 88%
Q4 5:08
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+20
97.8%
Le'Veon Moss run for 20 yds to the AUB 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:22
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+6
98.6%
Le'Veon Moss run for 6 yds to the AUB 22Similar
Q4 3:38
2ND & 4
OPP 22
0
98.6%
Le'Veon Moss run for no gain to the AUB 22Similar
Q4 2:56
3RD & 4
OPP 22
-5
99.0%
Marcel Reed pass complete to Mario Craver for no gain Texas A&M Penalty, inelgible downfield on pass (-5 Yards) to the AUB 27Similar
Q4 2:50
3RD & 9
OPP 27
0
99.0%
Marcel Reed pass incomplete to KC ConcepcionSimilar
Q4 2:42
4TH & 9
OPP 27
+44
88.0%
Randy Bond 44 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 24PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:167% → 7%
Q4 2:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
92.8%
Jackson Arnold pass incomplete to Eric Singleton Jr.Similar
Q4 2:30
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
92.9%
Jackson Arnold pass incomplete to Cam Coleman, broken up by Albert RegisSimilar
Q4 2:28
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
93.3%
Jackson Arnold pass incomplete to Malcolm SimmonsSimilar
Q4 2:25
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
93.5%
Hudson Kaak punt for 47 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 25PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:1597% → 90%
Q4 2:14
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-1
96.8%
Le'Veon Moss run for a loss of 1 yard to the TA&M 27Similar
Q4 2:09
2ND & 11
OWN 27
0
96.6%
Le'Veon Moss run for no gain to the TA&M 27Similar
Q4 2:07
3RD & 11
OWN 27
0
96.6%
Le'Veon Moss run for no gain to the TA&M 27Similar
Q4 1:59
4TH & 11
OWN 27
0
90.2%
Tyler White punt for 51 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 26DOWNS
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:4521% → 21%
Q4 1:47
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+5
78.7%
Jackson Arnold pass complete to Damari Alston for 5 yds to the AUB 27Similar
Q4 1:24
2ND & 5
OWN 27
+4
77.3%
Jackson Arnold pass complete to Cam Coleman for 4 yds to the AUB 31Similar
Q4 1:06
3RD & 1
OWN 31
0
77.7%
Jackson Arnold pass incomplete to Malcolm SimmonsSimilar
Q4 1:02
4TH & 1
OWN 31
-6
78.8%
Jackson Arnold sacked by Dayon Hayes for a loss of 6 yards to the AUB 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 27Uncategorized
3 plays · -18 yds · 0:3594% → 90%
Q4 0:59
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-15
94.1%
Texas A&M Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Cashius Howell) to the AUB 40Similar
Q4 0:57
1ST & 25
OPP 40
-3
90.2%
Marcel Reed run for a loss of 3 yards to the AUB 43Similar
Q4 0:24
2ND & 28
OPP 43
-2
90.2%
Marcel Reed run for a loss of 2 yards to the AUB 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
KEY PLAY · Q4 0:59
Texas A&M Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Cashius Howell) to the AUB 40
+15.3
KEY PLAY · Q3 14:55
Connor Gibbs kickoff for 57 yds , Terry Bussey return for 18 yds to the TA&M 26
+14.8
TD · Q4 10:20
Jackson Arnold 2 Yd Run (Alex McPherson Kick)
-13.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com