2025 · Week 5 · Sep 27, 2025 · Williams-Brice Stadium
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Win probability · SC
modelSC aheadUK aheadconfidence bandkey playSC scoreUK score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:23 · Matt Fuller run for 1 yd to the UK 17
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 5:48: Rahsul Faison run for 12 yds for a TD (William Joyce KICK) — SC win probability +3.4 pts (now 69%) (top driver: SC has the ball).
- TD · Q2 11:28: Jatius Geer 41 Yd Fumble Return (William Joyce Kick) — SC win probability +5.1 pts (now 67%) (top driver: UK has the ball).
- TD · Q2 10:43: Cutter Boley pass intercepted Gerald Kilgore return for 45 yds for a TD (William Joyce KICK) — SC win probability +5.7 pts (now 75%) (top driver: UK has the ball).
- FG · Q3 0:34: Jacob Kauwe 42 yd FG GOOD — UK win probability +2.2 pts (now 10%) (top driver: UK has the ball).
- FG · Q3 0:34: Timeout South Carolina, clock 00:34 — SC win probability +4.9 pts (now 95%) (top driver: SC has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
SC made the numbers' call on 4 of 7UK made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
- Q1 7:43SC 4th & 3 at UK 43, down 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 63.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call63.3%52% to convertField goal62.8%−0.528% to makePunt63.0%−0.3average punt
- Q1 0:58UK 4th & 8 at SC 8, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 36.5% before the snapGo for it36.1%−0.226% to convertField goalTheir call36.3%90% to makePunt34.1%−2.2average punt
- Q2 14:05SC 4th & 2 at SC 46, down 3Close callPunted · 62.6% before the snapGo for it62.9%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call62.4%−0.4average punt
- Q2 8:44UK 4th & 3 at SC 47, down 11Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 26.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call27.0%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt26.6%−0.4average punt
- Q2 8:44UK 4th & 3 at SC 47, down 11Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 26.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call27.0%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt26.6%−0.4average punt
- Q2 4:55SC 4th & 18 at UK 44, up 11Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.3% before the snapGo for it74.4%−0.913% to convertField goal74.8%−0.527% to makePuntTheir call75.3%average punt
- Q2 0:00UK 4th & 18 at UK 43, down 18Numbers favored punt by 2.7 ptsWent for it · 13.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call10.3%−2.713% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt13.0%average punt
- Q3 13:12SC 4th & 7 at SC 43, up 18Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.4% before the snapGo for it89.3%−0.837% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call90.1%average punt
- Q3 8:12UK 4th & 22 at UK 44, down 18Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.7% before the snapGo for it7.0%−2.98% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call9.9%average punt
- Q3 4:04SC 4th & 12 at SC 29, up 18Close callWent for it · 93.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call93.1%−0.722% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt93.8%average punt
- Q3 0:34UK 4th & 6 at SC 24, down 18Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 5.8% before the snapGo for it5.5%−0.139% to convertField goalTheir call5.6%68% to makePunt1.4%−4.2average punt
- Q4 9:51UK 4th & 6 at UK 24, down 22Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.2% before the snapGo for it1.1%−0.238% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.2%average punt
- Q4 9:51UK 4th & 6 at UK 24, down 22Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.2% before the snapGo for it1.1%−0.238% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.2%average punt
- Q4 2:48SC 4th & 1 at UK 31, up 22Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.4%71% to convertField goal99.2%−0.254% to makePunt99.1%−0.3average punt
- Q4 0:23SC 4th & 2 at UK 18, up 22Close callWent for it · 99.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.5%−<0.156% to convertField goal99.6%79% to makePunt99.2%−0.3average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
SC made the numbers' call on 5 of 5UK made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q1 11:27UK Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call35.0%97% to makeGo for two35.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 5:48SC Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call65.2%97% to makeGo for two65.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 11:28SC Touchdown, up 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call66.7%97% to makeGo for two66.7%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 10:43SC Touchdown, up 10 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call72.9%97% to makeGo for two72.8%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 1:07SC Touchdown, up 17 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call86.6%97% to makeGo for two86.4%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 12:14SC Touchdown, up 21 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.9%97% to makeGo for two98.8%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartUKDrive 1TD11 plays · 65 yds · 3:1730% → 32%
SCDrive 2TD14 plays · 75 yds · 5:2468% → 69%
Q1 9:24
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+14
67.0%
LaNorris Sellers pass complete to Vandrevius Jacobs for 14 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:33
3RD & 9
OPP 49
+6
66.4%
LaNorris Sellers pass complete to Brian Rowe Jr. for 6 yds to the UK 43Similar
Q1 7:43
4TH & 3
OPP 43
+10
66.1%
LaNorris Sellers pass complete to Nyck Harbor for 10 yds to the UK 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:39
2ND & 8
OPP 31
+7
66.3%
LaNorris Sellers pass complete to Oscar Adaway III for 7 yds to the UK 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 3FG11 plays · 76 yds · 4:4332% → 35%
SCDrive 4PUNT6 plays · 21 yds · 1:3063% → 63%
Q1 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
63.2%
LaNorris Sellers pass complete to Vandrevius Jacobs for 13 yds to the SC 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 5FUMBLE RETURN TD6 plays · 3 yds · 2:2237% → 33%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 6INT TD4 plays · 1 yds · 0:2931% → 25%
UKDrive 7DOWNS5 plays · 7 yds · 1:3626% → 25%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 8PUNT7 plays · 9 yds · 3:3283% → 82%
UKDrive 9INT7 plays · 8 yds · 2:2921% → 18%
Q2 2:05
3RD & 13
OWN 13
0
81.9%
Cutter Boley pass intercepted Brandon Cisse return for no gain to the UK 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 10TD7 plays · 43 yds · 0:5084% → 86%
Q2 1:57
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
84.1%
LaNorris Sellers pass complete to Rahsul Faison for no gain to the UK 43Similar
Q2 1:51
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+5
85.8%
(01:46) Shotgun Sellers,LaNorris pass incomplete deep right to Harbor,Nyck thrown to UKY02 PENALTY UKY Offside (Gusta,David) 5 yards from UKY43 to UKY38. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:11
2ND & 8
OPP 30
+24
84.6%
LaNorris Sellers run for 17 yds to the UK 13 for a 1ST down Kentucky Penalty, Defensive Holding (JQ Hardaway) to the UK 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
86.2%
Rahsul Faison run for 6 yds for a TD Kentucky Penalty, UNR: Unnecessary Roughness (Kahlil Saunders) to the UK 0 (William Joyce KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 11FUMBLE15 plays · 36 yds · 0:4314% → 11%
Q2 0:29
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-3
87.4%
Cutter Boley sacked by Bryan Thomas Jr. for a loss of 3 yards to the UK 37Similar
Q2 0:24
2ND & 13
OWN 37
+10
88.2%
Cutter Boley pass complete to Ja'Mori Maclin for 10 yds to the UK 47Similar
Q2 0:20
3RD & 3
OWN 47
+4
86.8%
Cutter Boley pass complete to Ja'Mori Maclin for 4 yds to the SC 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:13
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-3
86.4%
Cutter Boley sacked by Nick Barrett for a loss of 3 yards to the UK 48Similar
Q2 0:10
2ND & 13
OWN 48
+3
88.3%
Cutter Boley pass complete to Jason Patterson for 3 yds to the SC 49Similar
Q2 0:01
3RD & 10
OPP 49
-8
87.9%
Kentucky Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Cutter Boley) to the UK 43Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 18
OWN 43
+13
88.8%
Cutter Boley pass complete to Willie Rodriguez for 13 yds Fred Farrier II fumbled, recovered by SC Jalon KilgoreSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 12PUNT7 plays · 18 yds · 1:4287% → 90%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
87.1%
LaNorris Sellers pass complete to Brady Hunt for 15 yds to the SC 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 13PUNT11 plays · 24 yds · 4:4112% → 8%
Q3 12:21
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+7
88.5%
Cutter Boley pass complete to Kendrick Law for 7 yds to the UK 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:53
2ND & 9
OWN 41
+15
90.3%
(09:59) No Huddle-Shotgun Boley,Cutter pass incomplete short right to Farrier II,Fred thrown to USC40 PENALTY USC Pass Interference (Williams,Peyton) 15 yards from UKY41 to USC44, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:58
3RD & 12
OPP 46
-5
90.8%
Cutter Boley sacked by Bryan Thomas Jr. for a loss of 5 yards to the UK 49Similar
Q3 8:32
4TH & 17
OWN 49
-5
91.5%
PENALTY UKY False Start (McGowan,Seth) 5 yards from UKY49 to UKY44. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 14DOWNS10 plays · 19 yds · 4:0892% → 93%
Q3 8:12
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-5
92.1%
(08:01) PENALTY USC False Start (Babalade,Tree) 5 yards from USC20 to USC15. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 7:46
1ST & 15
OWN 15
+12
91.1%
LaNorris Sellers pass complete to Vandrevius Jacobs for 12 yds to the SC 27Similar
Q3 5:35
2ND & 8
OWN 33
-15
93.0%
South Carolina Penalty, UNR: Unnecessary Roughness (-15 Yards) to the SC 21Similar
Q3 4:16
2ND & 20
OWN 21
-4
93.1%
LaNorris Sellers sacked by Tavion Gadson for a loss of 4 yards to the SC 17Similar
Q3 4:04
4TH & 12
OWN 29
+10
92.5%
Mason Love pass complete to Maurice Brown II for 10 yds to the SC 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 15FG8 plays · 15 yds · 3:098% → 10%
Q3 3:43
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+7
91.7%
Cutter Boley pass complete to Kendrick Law for 7 yds to the SC 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 16TD10 plays · 84 yds · 2:4695% → 100%
UKDrive 17PUNT6 plays · 4 yds · 2:021% → 1%
Q4 11:18
2ND & 15
OWN 15
-7
98.7%
Cutter Boley sacked by Jatius Geer for a loss of 7 yards to the UK 8 Cutter Boley fumbled, recovered by UK Alex Wollschlaeger , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q4 9:51
4TH & 6
OWN 24
0
98.8%
Aidan Laros punt for 56 yds , Vicari Swain returns for no gain to the SC 15 Vicari Swain fumbled, recovered by SC Vicari SwainSimilar
Q4 9:51
4TH & 6
OWN 24
0
98.8%
Aidan Laros punt for 56 yds , Vicari Swain returns for no gain to the SC 15 Vicari Swain fumbled, recovered by SC Vicari SwainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 18DOWNS20 plays · 68 yds · 9:12100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 19END OF GAME1 play · 3 yds · 0:000% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 10:43
Cutter Boley pass intercepted Gerald Kilgore return for 45 yds for a TD (William Joyce KICK)
+5.7
TD · Q2 11:28
Jatius Geer 41 Yd Fumble Return (William Joyce Kick)
+5.1
FG · Q3 0:34
Timeout South Carolina, clock 00:34
+4.9