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TENN

Tennessee 41 at Mississippi State 34

MSST
2025 · Week 5 · Sep 27, 2025 · Davis Wade Stadium
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Win probability · MSST
modelMSST aheadTENN aheadconfidence bandkey playMSST scoreTENN score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4OTTDFGTDTDFGTDFGTDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of GameFG-2.3MSST 38.3%Max Gilbert 27 yd FG GOODAWAY 20 - HOME 17 · Q3 11:28
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 11:28 · Max Gilbert 27 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+31.5+15.80−15.8−31.5Q1Q2Q3Q4OTPlay 109Pregame prior−8.1Home team on offense−5.2Score differential−2.5Garbage-time factor−0.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.0Blowout margin+0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 3:48: Fluff Bothwell run for 1 yd for a TD (Kyle Ferrie KICK) — MSST win probability +19.4 pts (now 67%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 13:29: Joshua Josephs 41 Yd Fumble Return (Max Gilbert Kick) — TENN win probability +16.5 pts (now 54%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  3. TD · Q4 7:59: Blake Shapen pass complete to Seydou Traore for 2 yds for a TD (Kyle Ferrie KICK) — MSST win probability +25.7 pts (now 88%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 1:55: Joey Aguilar run for 6 yds for a TD (Max Gilbert KICK) — TENN win probability +42.6 pts (now 60%) (top driver: TENN has the ball).
  5. TD · OT 0:00: D.Bishop rushed for 25 yards. TOUCHDOWN. — TENN win probability +31.1 pts (now 89%) (top driver: TENN has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MSST made the numbers' call on 6 of 9TENN made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
  1. Q1 13:27MSST 4th & 16 at MSST 19, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.8%−0.2
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.9%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:19TENN 4th & 7 at MSST 20, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 63.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.3%−0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    63.4%
    75% to make
    Punt
    62.7%−0.7
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:50MSST 4th & 3 at MSST 32, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.2%−0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.3%
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:00TENN 4th & 2 at MSST 49, down 4
    Close callPunted · 62.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.5%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.2%−0.3
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:51TENN 4th & 6 at TENN 44, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.5%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.7%
    average punt
  6. Q2 8:41MSST 4th & 7 at TENN 33, up 4
    Close callKicked a field goal · 44.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.4%
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    44.3%−0.1
    49% to make
    Punt
    43.7%−0.7
    average punt
  7. Q2 4:18MSST 4th & 15 at TENN 48, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.4%−1.2
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.7%
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:53TENN 4th & 2 at MSST 48, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 60.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    60.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    59.1%−1.2
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:11TENN 4th & 11 at MSST 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 58.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.4%−1.2
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    58.6%
    60% to make
    Punt
    53.7%−4.9
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:05MSST 4th & 1 at MSST 37, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.0 ptsPunted · 44.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.9%−2.0
    average punt
  11. Q3 11:28TENN 4th & 9 at MSST 9, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 57.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.4%−1.3
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    56.7%
    89% to make
    Punt
    47.8%−8.9
    average punt
  12. Q3 6:03MSST 4th & 10 at TENN 24, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 41.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.5%−1.7
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    41.1%
    68% to make
    Punt
    31.2%−9.9
    average punt
  13. Q3 1:02TENN 4th & 15 at TENN 36, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.4%−3.8
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.2%
    average punt
  14. Q4 14:09MSST 4th & 7 at MSST 33, up 4
    Numbers favored punt by 3.2 ptsWent for it · 62.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    62.1%−3.2
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    65.3%
    average punt
  15. Q4 10:31MSST 4th & 6 at TENN 21, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 39.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.8%−2.6
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    40.4%
    74% to make
    Punt
    25.7%−14.7
    average punt
  16. Q4 4:51TENN 4th & 4 at MSST 47, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 17.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    15.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    12.1%−3.1
    average punt
  17. Q4 1:23MSST 4th & 8 at MSST 27, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.4%−7.0
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.5%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MSST made the numbers' call on 4 of 4TENN made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 11:49MSST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    34.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    34.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 4:19TENN Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 13:53MSST Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    41.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    41.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 7:25TENN Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 3:48MSST Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 13:29TENN Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 7:59MSST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.7%−0.7
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 1:55TENN Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    42.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    39.7%−2.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MSSTDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · -6 yds · 1:2433% → 33%
Q1 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
32.5%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Jordan Mosley for 2 yds to the MSST 23Similar
Q1 14:35
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+3
32.6%
Fluff Bothwell run for 3 yds to the MSST 26Similar
Q1 14:07
3RD & 9
OWN 26
-7
32.8%
Blake Shapen sacked by Dominic Bailey for a loss of 7 yards to the MSST 19Similar
Q1 13:27
4TH & 16
OWN 19
+61
33.0%
Ethan Pulliam punt for 54 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 2TD
5 plays · 20 yds · 1:3133% → 35%
Q1 13:20
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+2
33.4%
Anthony Evans III run for 2 yds to the TENN 18Similar
Q1 12:55
2ND & 8
OPP 18
+3
33.6%
Kamario Taylor run for 3 yds to the TENN 15Similar
Q1 12:28
3RD & 5
OPP 15
+5
33.8%
Blake Shapen run for 5 yds to the TENN 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+5
34.2%
Tennessee Penalty, Personal Foul (Joshua Josephs) to the TENN 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
35.3%
Fluff Bothwell run for 5 yds for a TD (Kyle Ferrie KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 3FG
9 plays · 55 yds · 2:1965% → 65%
Q1 11:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+26
35.0%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Braylon Staley for 26 yds to the MSST 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:25
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
34.8%
DeSean Bishop run for 4 yds to the MSST 45Similar
Q1 11:07
2ND & 6
OPP 45
+11
35.0%
(11:10) No Huddle-Shotgun Aguilar,Joey pass incomplete short right to Brazzell II,Chris thrown to MSU32, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY MSU Pass Interference (Jones,Kelley) 11 yard from MSU45 to MSU34, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 11:01
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+11
34.9%
DeSean Bishop run for 11 yds to the MSST 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:34
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+3
35.1%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Miles Kitselman for 3 yds to the MSST 20Similar
Q1 10:04
2ND & 7
OPP 20
0
35.4%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Braylon Staley for no gain to the MSST 20Similar
Q1 9:24
3RD & 7
OPP 20
0
36.2%
Joey Aguilar pass incomplete to Braylon StaleySimilar
Q1 9:19
4TH & 7
OPP 20
+38
35.5%
Max Gilbert 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:2136% → 36%
Q1 9:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
35.5%
Davon Booth run for a loss of 1 yard to the MSST 24Similar
Q1 8:46
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+2
35.5%
Blake Shapen run for 2 yds to the MSST 26Similar
Q1 8:10
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+6
35.6%
Blake Shapen run for 6 yds to the MSST 32Similar
Q1 7:50
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
36.1%
Ethan Pulliam punt for 67 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 50 yds · 2:4463% → 62%
Q1 7:44
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+3
36.7%
Star Thomas run for 3 yds to the TENN 4Similar
Q1 7:11
2ND & 7
OWN 4
+39
37.1%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Mike Matthews for 39 yds to the TENN 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:06
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+1
36.8%
Star Thomas run for 1 yd to the TENN 44Similar
Q1 5:43
2ND & 9
OWN 44
+7
37.1%
Joey Aguilar run for 7 yds to the MSST 49Similar
Q1 5:08
3RD & 2
OPP 49
0
37.2%
Joey Aguilar pass incomplete to Star ThomasSimilar
Q1 5:00
4TH & 2
OPP 49
0
37.7%
Jackson Ross punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Anthony Evans III at the MSST 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 6INT TD
3 plays · 5 yds · 0:3338% → 35%
Q1 4:52
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+5
38.0%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Jordan Mosley for 5 yds to the MSST 15Similar
Q1 4:27
2ND & 5
OWN 15
0
38.2%
Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Anthony Evans IIISimilar
Q1 4:19
3RD & 5
OWN 15
-23
35.0%
Blake Shapen pass intercepted Colton Hood return for 23 yds for a TD (Max Gilbert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 7TD
16 plays · 75 yds · 5:1936% → 43%
Q1 4:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-4
35.5%
Blake Shapen sacked by Tyre West for a loss of 4 yards to the MSST 21Similar
Q1 3:41
2ND & 14
OWN 21
+6
35.5%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Brenen Thompson for 6 yds to the MSST 27Similar
Q1 3:23
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+11
35.2%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Brenen Thompson for 11 yds to the MSST 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:02
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
36.4%
Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Brenen ThompsonSimilar
Q1 2:51
2ND & 10
OWN 38
-8
36.4%
Davon Booth run for 2 yds Mississippi State Penalty, Offensive Holding (Seydou Traore) to the MSST 30Similar
Q1 2:43
2ND & 18
OWN 30
+15
35.9%
Fluff Bothwell run for 15 yds to the MSST 45Similar
Q1 2:05
3RD & 3
OWN 45
+5
36.9%
Fluff Bothwell run for 5 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:50
1ST & 10
50
0
37.6%
Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Anthony Evans IIISimilar
Q1 1:43
2ND & 10
50
+4
37.4%
Davon Booth run for 4 yds to the TENN 46Similar
Q1 1:10
3RD & 6
OPP 46
+16
37.6%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Brenen Thompson for 16 yds to the TENN 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:53
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
38.6%
Davon Booth run for no gain to the TENN 30Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+6
39.0%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Anthony Evans III for 6 yds to the TENN 24Similar
Q2 14:54
3RD & 4
OPP 24
+5
38.3%
Kamario Taylor run for 5 yds to the TENN 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:16
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+14
39.3%
Davon Booth run for 14 yds to the TENN 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
43.2%
Davon Booth run for 5 yds for a TD (Kyle Ferrie KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 8PUNT
8 plays · 19 yds · 1:5659% → 57%
Q2 13:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
41.4%
Peyton Lewis run for 6 yds to the TENN 31Similar
Q2 13:24
2ND & 4
OWN 31
0
40.9%
Joey Aguilar pass incomplete to Mike MatthewsSimilar
Q2 13:16
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+9
41.7%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Chris Brazzell II for 9 yds to the TENN 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:59
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+6
40.7%
Peyton Lewis run for 6 yds to the TENN 46Similar
Q2 12:41
2ND & 4
OWN 46
-2
40.4%
Peyton Lewis run for a loss of 2 yards to the TENN 44Similar
Q2 12:00
3RD & 6
OWN 44
0
41.2%
Joey Aguilar pass incomplete to Mike MatthewsSimilar
Q2 11:51
4TH & 6
OWN 44
+3
42.6%
Jackson Ross punt for 43 yds , Anthony Evans III returns for 3 yds to the MSST 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 9FG
8 plays · 51 yds · 3:0243% → 50%
Q2 11:43
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+8
42.5%
Fluff Bothwell run for 8 yds to the MSST 24Similar
Q2 11:25
2ND & 2
OWN 24
+3
43.0%
Fluff Bothwell run for 3 yds to the MSST 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:56
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+20
43.0%
Fluff Bothwell run for 20 yds to the MSST 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:12
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+17
44.9%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Jordan Mosley for 17 yds to the TENN 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:53
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
45.7%
Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Anthony Evans IIISimilar
Q2 9:42
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+3
45.8%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Cameron Ball for 3 yds to the TENN 33Similar
Q2 9:27
3RD & 7
OPP 33
0
45.6%
Davon Booth run for no gain to the TENN 33Similar
Q2 8:41
4TH & 7
OPP 33
+51
49.8%
Kyle Ferrie 51 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 10TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 1:1051% → 64%
Q2 8:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
49.3%
Mississippi State Penalty, UNR: Unnecessary Roughness (15 Yards) to the TENN 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:17
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+42
48.4%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Chris Brazzell II for 27 yds to the MSST 30 for a 1ST down Mississippi State Penalty, Roughing The Passer (Nic Mitchell) to the MSST 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:25
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+15
36.5%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Chris Brazzell II for 15 yds for a TD (Max Gilbert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 11PUNT
9 plays · 27 yds · 3:0042% → 43%
Q2 7:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
42.4%
Fluff Bothwell run for 9 yds to the MSST 34Similar
Q2 7:01
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+3
44.0%
Fluff Bothwell run for 3 yds to the MSST 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:37
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+9
43.5%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Seydou Traore for 9 yds to the MSST 46Similar
Q2 6:20
2ND & 1
OWN 46
+11
45.2%
Fluff Bothwell run for 11 yds to the TENN 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:03
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-7
45.7%
Blake Shapen sacked by Caleb Herring for a loss of 7 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 5:31
2ND & 17
50
+9
44.1%
Davon Booth run for 9 yds to the TENN 41Similar
Q2 5:02
3RD & 8
OPP 41
-7
45.6%
Blake Shapen sacked for a loss of 7 yards to the TENN 48Similar
Q2 4:18
4TH & 15
OPP 48
0
42.5%
Ethan Pulliam punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Boo Carter at the TENN 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 12MISSED FG
14 plays · 61 yds · 3:0059% → 58%
Q2 4:11
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+1
40.8%
Star Thomas run for 1 yd to the TENN 12Similar
Q2 3:43
2ND & 9
OWN 12
+32
41.2%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Chris Brazzell II for 32 yds to the TENN 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:27
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
38.8%
Joey Aguilar pass incomplete to Braylon StaleySimilar
Q2 3:16
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+9
39.5%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Miles Kitselman for 9 yds to the MSST 47Similar
Q2 3:06
3RD & 1
OPP 47
-5
38.3%
PENALTY TENN False Start (Perry,Jesse) 5 yards from MSU47 to TENN48. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:39
3RD & 6
OWN 48
+4
38.9%
Joey Aguilar run for 4 yds to the MSST 48Similar
Q2 1:53
4TH & 2
OPP 48
+21
40.3%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Star Thomas for 21 yds to the MSST 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:45
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-1
37.3%
Joey Aguilar sacked by DJ Reed for a loss of 1 yard to the MSST 28Similar
Q2 1:20
2ND & 11
OPP 28
0
36.6%
Joey Aguilar pass incomplete to Miles KitselmanSimilar
Q2 1:16
3RD & 11
OPP 28
0
38.9%
Joey Aguilar pass incomplete to Braylon StaleySimilar
Q2 1:11
4TH & 11
OPP 28
+47
41.8%
Max Gilbert 47 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:0146% → 45%
Q2 1:06
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
46.3%
Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Fluff BothwellSimilar
Q2 1:01
2ND & 10
OWN 28
0
45.8%
Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Ayden WilliamsSimilar
Q2 0:55
3RD & 10
OWN 28
+9
44.8%
Fluff Bothwell run for 9 yds to the MSST 37Similar
Q2 0:05
4TH & 1
OWN 37
0
44.6%
Ethan Pulliam punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Boo Carter at the TENN 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 14END OF HALF
1 play · -5 yds · 0:0058% → 58%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 16
-5
42.5%
(00:05) Kneel down by Tennessee at TENN11 for loss of 5 yards.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 15FG
11 plays · 66 yds · 3:2958% → 62%
Q3 14:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
41.9%
Joey Aguilar pass incomplete to Braylon StaleySimilar
Q3 14:51
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
42.2%
DeSean Bishop run for 4 yds to the TENN 29Similar
Q3 14:19
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+39
42.8%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Mike Matthews for 24 yds to the MSST 47 for a 1ST down Mississippi State Penalty, Personal Foul (Deonte Anderson) to the MSST 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:56
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+2
38.3%
DeSean Bishop run for 2 yds to the MSST 30Similar
Q3 13:29
2ND & 8
OPP 30
+3
38.1%
Joey Aguilar run for 3 yds to the MSST 27Similar
Q3 12:43
3RD & 5
OPP 27
+17
39.6%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Miles Kitselman for 17 yds to the MSST 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+1
38.6%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Mike Matthews for 1 yd to the MSST 9Similar
Q3 11:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
0
38.7%
Joey Aguilar pass incomplete to Miles KitselmanSimilar
Q3 11:33
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
0
40.5%
Joey Aguilar pass incomplete to Chris Brazzell IISimilar
Q3 11:28
4TH & GOAL
OPP 9
+27
38.3%
Max Gilbert 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 16MISSED FG
14 plays · 51 yds · 5:1839% → 41%
Q3 11:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
39.2%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Anthony Evans III for 5 yds to the MSST 30Similar
Q3 10:53
2ND & 5
OWN 30
-5
40.0%
Blake Shapen run for a loss of 5 yards to the MSST 25Similar
Q3 10:17
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+16
37.8%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Seydou Traore for 16 yds to the MSST 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:56
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
42.6%
Fluff Bothwell run for 3 yds to the MSST 44Similar
Q3 9:36
2ND & 7
OWN 44
+6
43.0%
Fluff Bothwell run for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 9:15
3RD & 1
50
+6
43.0%
Fluff Bothwell run for 6 yds to the TENN 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:54
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+5
44.1%
Fluff Bothwell run for 5 yds to the TENN 39Similar
Q3 8:35
2ND & 5
OPP 39
+15
44.3%
(08:41) No Huddle-Shotgun Shapen,Blake pass incomplete deep right to Williams,Ayden thrown to TENN01 PENALTY TENN Pass Interference (Hood,Colton) 15 yards from TENN39 to TENN24, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:30
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-5
45.7%
(08:34) No Huddle-Shotgun Booth,Davon rush middle for 1 yard gain to the TENN23 (Carter,Arion; Spillman,Edwin) PENALTY MSU Illegal Shift 5 yards from TENN24 to TENN29. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:11
1ST & 15
OPP 29
+5
45.0%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Anthony Evans III for 5 yds to the TENN 34Similar
Q3 7:32
2ND & 20
OPP 34
-3
43.3%
Davon Booth run for a loss of 3 yards to the TENN 37Similar
Q3 6:45
3RD & 23
OPP 37
+13
41.0%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Seydou Traore for 13 yds to the TENN 24Similar
Q3 6:03
4TH & 10
OPP 24
+42
41.3%
Kyle Ferrie 42 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 17INT
4 plays · 29 yds · 1:0462% → 64%
Q3 5:53
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+36
38.2%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Mike Matthews for 36 yds to the MSST 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:31
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-7
35.0%
Joey Aguilar sacked by Zakari Tillman for a loss of 7 yards to the MSST 47Similar
Q3 4:49
2ND & 17
OPP 47
-21
35.6%
Tennessee Penalty, Personal Foul (Lance Heard) to the TENN 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:49
2ND & 17
OPP 47
-15
35.6%
Tennessee Penalty, Personal Foul (Lance Heard) to the TENN 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 18TD
3 plays · 26 yds · 0:5247% → 67%
Q3 4:40
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+15
47.0%
Fluff Bothwell run for 15 yds to the TENN 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:13
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+6
47.2%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Anthony Evans III for 6 yds to the TENN 5Similar
Q3 3:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
66.5%
Fluff Bothwell run for 1 yd for a TD (Kyle Ferrie KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 19PUNT
8 plays · 11 yds · 2:3941% → 37%
Q3 3:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
59.1%
Star Thomas run for 5 yds to the TENN 30Similar
Q3 3:24
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+11
58.1%
Star Thomas run for 11 yds to the TENN 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:01
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-15
56.8%
(03:09) No Huddle-Shotgun Aguilar,Joey pass complete deep right to Brazzell II,Chris caught at MSU15, for 59 yards to the MSU00 TOUCHDOWN nullified by penalty, clock 03:01 PENALTY TENN Pass Interference (Brazzell II,Chris) 15 yards from TENN41 to TENN26. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 2:55
1ST & 25
OWN 26
+1
59.5%
Star Thomas run for 1 yd to the TENN 27Similar
Q3 2:14
2ND & 24
OWN 27
+7
60.6%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Braylon Staley for 7 yds to the TENN 34Similar
Q3 1:43
3RD & 17
OWN 34
+2
62.4%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Star Thomas for 2 yds to the TENN 36Similar
Q3 1:02
4TH & 15
OWN 36
0
63.2%
Jackson Ross punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Anthony Evans III at the MSST 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 20FUMBLE RETURN TD
7 plays · 24 yds · 2:2564% → 46%
Q3 0:54
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+7
63.7%
Davon Booth run for 7 yds to the MSST 24Similar
Q3 0:32
2ND & 3
OWN 24
+6
64.4%
Davon Booth run for 6 yds to the MSST 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
64.7%
Davon Booth run for 3 yds to the MSST 33Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 7
OWN 33
0
65.2%
Davon Booth run for no gain to the MSST 33Similar
Q4 14:21
3RD & 7
OWN 33
0
63.9%
Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Anthony Evans IIISimilar
Q4 14:09
4TH & 7
OWN 33
+15
62.6%
Sam West run for 15 yds to the MSST 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:29
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+41
46.1%
Joshua Josephs 41 Yd Fumble Return (Max Gilbert Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 21FG
7 plays · 54 yds · 2:5242% → 55%
Q4 13:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
41.5%
Fluff Bothwell run for 1 yd to the MSST 26Similar
Q4 12:48
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+49
41.4%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Ayden Williams for 49 yds to the TENN 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:26
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
48.2%
Fluff Bothwell run for no gain to the TENN 25Similar
Q4 11:51
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+2
48.3%
Kamario Taylor run for 2 yds to the TENN 23Similar
Q4 11:13
3RD & 8
OPP 23
+2
44.6%
Blake Shapen run for 2 yds to the TENN 21Similar
Q4 10:31
4TH & 6
OPP 21
+38
55.2%
Kyle Ferrie 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 22INT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:4451% → 51%
Q4 10:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
48.6%
Joey Aguilar pass incomplete to Chris Brazzell IISimilar
Q4 10:21
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
49.0%
DeSean Bishop run for 6 yds to the TENN 31Similar
Q4 9:43
3RD & 4
OWN 31
-26
49.1%
Joey Aguilar pass intercepted Zakari Tillman return for 26 yds to the TENN 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 23TD
5 plays · 17 yds · 1:3761% → 88%
Q4 9:36
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+2
61.1%
Davon Booth run for 2 yds to the TENN 15Similar
Q4 9:07
2ND & 8
OPP 15
+7
61.3%
Davon Booth run for 7 yds to the TENN 8Similar
Q4 8:51
3RD & 1
OPP 8
+3
59.4%
Davon Booth run for 3 yds to the TENN 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
61.8%
Fluff Bothwell run for 3 yds to the TENN 2Similar
Q4 7:59
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
87.5%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Seydou Traore for 2 yds for a TD (Kyle Ferrie KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 24TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 5:5820% → 60%
Q4 7:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
80.0%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Chris Brazzell II for 11 yds to the TENN 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:22
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+8
80.9%
Star Thomas run for 8 yds to the TENN 44Similar
Q4 6:57
2ND & 2
OWN 44
+3
79.3%
Star Thomas run for 3 yds to the TENN 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:35
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+1
79.7%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Mike Matthews for 1 yd to the TENN 48Similar
Q4 6:13
2ND & 9
OWN 48
-1
80.6%
Star Thomas run for a loss of 1 yard to the TENN 47Similar
Q4 5:34
3RD & 10
OWN 47
+6
82.8%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Star Thomas for 6 yds to the MSST 47Similar
Q4 4:51
4TH & 4
OPP 47
+11
82.7%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Chris Brazzell II for 11 yds to the MSST 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:34
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+1
80.7%
Star Thomas run for 1 yd to the MSST 35Similar
Q4 3:47
2ND & 9
OPP 35
+17
80.8%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Mike Matthews for 17 yds to the MSST 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:29
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+6
79.8%
DeSean Bishop run for 6 yds to the MSST 12Similar
Q4 2:52
2ND & 4
OPP 12
+3
80.2%
DeSean Bishop run for 3 yds to the MSST 9Similar
Q4 2:38
3RD & 1
OPP 9
-5
82.1%
PENALTY TENN False Start (Sanders Jr.,David) 5 yards from MSU09 to MSU14. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 2:00
3RD & 6
OPP 14
+8
82.3%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Braylon Staley for 8 yds to the MSST 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
39.7%
Joey Aguilar run for 6 yds for a TD (Max Gilbert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 25PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:2557% → 52%
Q4 1:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
56.8%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Fluff Bothwell for 2 yds to the MSST 27Similar
Q4 1:44
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
57.2%
Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Jordan MosleySimilar
Q4 1:39
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
53.5%
Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Fluff BothwellSimilar
Q4 1:23
4TH & 8
OWN 27
+1
51.9%
Ethan Pulliam punt for 48 yds , Boo Carter returns for 1 yd to the TENN 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 26END OF GAME
9 plays · 30 yds · 1:1650% → 57%
Q4 1:16
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+3
50.0%
DeSean Bishop run for 3 yds to the TENN 29Similar
Q4 0:38
2ND & 7
OWN 29
+13
49.4%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Miles Kitselman for 13 yds to the TENN 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:24
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+9
46.8%
Joey Aguilar run for 9 yds to the MSST 49Similar
Q4 0:18
2ND & 1
OPP 49
0
44.0%
Joey Aguilar pass incomplete to Braylon StaleySimilar
Q4 0:13
3RD & 1
OPP 49
+5
44.8%
DeSean Bishop run for 5 yds to the MSST 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:04
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
43.9%
Joey Aguilar pass incomplete to DeSean BishopSimilar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 44
0
42.7%
Tennessee Penalty, Offensive Holding (William Wright) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 27TD
1 play · 25 yds · 0:0089% → 89%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+25
11.5%
D.Bishop rushed for 25 yards. TOUCHDOWN.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 28END OF GAME
6 plays · 21 yds · 0:0029% → 25%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-1
28.9%
F.Bothwell rushed for -1 yards. Tackled by J.Josephs; E.Spillman at TENN 26.Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 11
OPP 26
+21
24.8%
B.Shapen pass complete. Catch made by A.Evans for 21 yards. Tackled by E.Spillman at TENN 5.Similar
OT 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
30.3%
B.Shapen rushed for 1 yards. Tackled by J.Josephs at TENN 4.Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
30.3%
F.Bothwell rushed for 0 yards. Tackled by A.Carter, B.Eason at MSST 4.Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
27.5%
B.Shapen rushed for 0 yards. Tackled by J.McMurray at TENN 4.Similar
OT 0:00
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
0
24.8%
B.Shapen steps back to pass. Pass incomplete intended for A.Evans.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 1:55
Joey Aguilar run for 6 yds for a TD (Max Gilbert KICK)
-42.6
TD · OT 0:00
D.Bishop rushed for 25 yards. TOUCHDOWN.
-31.1
TD · Q4 7:59
Blake Shapen pass complete to Seydou Traore for 2 yds for a TD (Kyle Ferrie KICK)
+25.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com