Try the model
LSU

LSU 19 at Ole Miss 24

MISS
2025 · Week 5 · Sep 27, 2025 · Vaught-Hemingway Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · MISS
modelMISS aheadLSU aheadconfidence bandkey playMISS scoreLSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDFGFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 1:37 · Trinidad Chambliss pass complete to Dae'Quan Wright for 20 yds to the LSU 15 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout marginTime remaining
+26.5+13.30−13.3−26.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 184Home team on offense+23.1Garbage-time factor+15.1Score differential+1.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+4.0Blowout margin−1.2Time remaining−1.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 5:09: Kewan Lacy run for 15 yds for a TD (Lucas Carneiro KICK) — MISS win probability +8.6 pts (now 61%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:13: Trinidad Chambliss pass complete to Cayden Lee for 2 yds for a TD (Lucas Carneiro KICK) — MISS win probability +6.9 pts (now 71%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
  3. FG · Q3 0:58: Damian Ramos 48 yd FG GOOD — LSU win probability +7.4 pts (now 31%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 11:08: Logan Diggs run for 6 yds for a TD (Lucas Carneiro KICK) — MISS win probability +13.3 pts (now 90%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 5:04: Harlem Berry run for 6 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed) — LSU win probability +15.1 pts (now 23%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MISS made the numbers' call on 6 of 7LSU made the numbers' call on 8 of 9
  1. Q1 13:33MISS 4th & 10 at MISS 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.9%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.1%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:18LSU 4th & 6 at LSU 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.7%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.8%
    average punt
  3. Q1 11:45MISS 4th & 10 at MISS 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.9%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.0%
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:40MISS 4th & 4 at LSU 7, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 54.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.2%
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    53.9%−0.3
    91% to make
    Punt
    49.7%−4.5
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:14MISS 4th & 23 at MISS 24, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.3%−2.4
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.7%
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:43LSU 4th & 5 at LSU 32, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.9%−0.7
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.7%
    average punt
  7. Q2 6:49LSU 4th & 10 at LSU 20, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.6%−1.0
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.6%
    average punt
  8. Q2 2:16LSU 4th & 4 at LSU 38, down 3
    Close callPunted · 37.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.4%−0.7
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:26MISS 4th & 1 at LSU 13, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 63.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    63.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    63.0%−0.2
    85% to make
    Punt
    57.7%−5.5
    average punt
  10. Q3 12:19LSU 4th & 8 at LSU 40, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.9%−0.7
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.6%
    average punt
  11. Q3 10:37MISS 4th & 8 at MISS 19, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.4%−1.2
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.6%
    average punt
  12. Q3 6:02LSU 4th & 8 at MISS 22, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 21.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.4%−1.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    21.5%
    72% to make
    Punt
    13.4%−8.1
    average punt
  13. Q3 0:58LSU 4th & 10 at MISS 31, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 23.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.0%−0.9
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    22.9%
    54% to make
    Punt
    20.8%−2.0
    average punt
  14. Q4 7:56LSU 4th & 3 at MISS 38, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 10.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.5%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    9.2%−1.3
    38% to make
    Punt
    9.0%−1.5
    average punt
  15. Q4 6:03LSU 4th & 5 at MISS 30, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 8.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    8.4%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    8.1%−0.3
    56% to make
    Punt
    7.0%−1.4
    average punt
  16. Q4 1:37MISS 4th & 3 at LSU 35, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 91.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    91.9%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    90.7%−1.2
    45% to make
    Punt
    89.0%−2.8
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MISS made the numbers' call on 3 of 3LSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 9:10LSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    42.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    42.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 5:09MISS Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:13MISS Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 11:08MISS Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 5:04LSU Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    17.0%−2.1
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    19.1%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MISSDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 0 yds · 1:2251% → 51%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
51.2%
Kewan Lacy run for 3 yds to the MISS 28Similar
Q1 14:36
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+2
51.3%
Trinidad Chambliss pass complete to De'Zhaun Stribling for 2 yds to the MISS 30Similar
Q1 14:04
3RD & 5
OWN 30
-5
51.3%
Ole Miss Penalty, False Start (Patrick Kutas) to the MISS 25Similar
Q1 13:38
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
51.3%
Trinidad Chambliss pass incomplete to Dae'Quan Wright, broken up by PJ WoodlandSimilar
Q1 13:33
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
51.3%
Oscar Bird punt for 50 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the LSU 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:1149% → 48%
Q1 13:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
51.4%
Garrett Nussmeier pass incomplete to Bauer SharpSimilar
Q1 13:09
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
51.5%
Zavion Thomas run for 4 yds to the LSU 29Similar
Q1 12:25
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
51.7%
Garrett Nussmeier pass incomplete to Aaron Anderson, broken up by Sage RyanSimilar
Q1 12:18
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
51.8%
Grant Chadwick punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Harrison Wallace III at the MISS 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:2752% → 51%
Q1 12:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
51.7%
Trinidad Chambliss pass incomplete to Dae'Quan Wright, broken up by Tamarcus CooleySimilar
Q1 12:06
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
51.7%
Trinidad Chambliss pass incomplete to Kewan LacySimilar
Q1 11:58
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
51.5%
Trinidad Chambliss pass incomplete to Cayden LeeSimilar
Q1 11:45
4TH & 10
OWN 25
+12
51.4%
Oscar Bird punt for 54 yds , Zavion Thomas returns for 12 yds to the LSU 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 4TD
6 plays · 67 yds · 2:2248% → 51%
Q1 11:32
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+50
51.6%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Zavion Thomas for 50 yds to the MISS 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:51
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+7
51.2%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Aaron Anderson for 7 yds to the MISS 10Similar
Q1 10:25
2ND & 3
OPP 10
+4
51.1%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Barion Brown for 4 yds to the MISS 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
-1
51.2%
Ju'Juan Johnson run for a loss of 1 yard to the MISS 7Similar
Q1 9:10
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
49.1%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Nic Anderson for 7 yds for a TD (Damian Ramos KICK)Similar
Q1 9:10
2ND & 0
OPP 3
+2
49.0%
Ole Miss Penalty, Defensive Offside (TJ Dottery) to the MISS 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 5FG
20 plays · 83 yds · 7:1850% → 51%
Q1 8:58
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
49.6%
Deuce Alexander run for no gain to the MISS 10Similar
Q1 8:38
2ND & 10
OWN 10
+4
49.5%
Kewan Lacy run for 4 yds to the MISS 14Similar
Q1 7:59
3RD & 6
OWN 14
+12
49.1%
Trinidad Chambliss pass complete to Dae'Quan Wright for 12 yds to the MISS 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:28
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+9
49.4%
Trinidad Chambliss pass complete to Kewan Lacy for 9 yds to the MISS 35Similar
Q1 7:07
2ND & 1
OWN 35
+2
49.8%
Kewan Lacy run for 2 yds to the MISS 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:46
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+8
49.4%
Kewan Lacy run for 8 yds to the MISS 45Similar
Q1 6:27
2ND & 2
OWN 45
+1
49.9%
Kewan Lacy run for 1 yd to the MISS 46Similar
Q1 6:02
3RD & 1
OWN 46
+2
49.6%
Trinidad Chambliss run for 2 yds to the MISS 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:26
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+13
49.7%
Trinidad Chambliss pass complete to Winston Watkins for 13 yds to the LSU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:02
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+1
49.9%
Deuce Alexander run for 1 yd to the LSU 38Similar
Q1 4:33
2ND & 9
OPP 38
+11
49.8%
Trinidad Chambliss run for 11 yds to the LSU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:15
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+2
50.3%
Logan Diggs run for 2 yds to the LSU 25Similar
Q1 3:43
2ND & 8
OPP 25
+3
50.2%
Kewan Lacy run for 3 yds to the LSU 22Similar
Q1 3:13
3RD & 5
OPP 22
+8
49.6%
Trinidad Chambliss run for 8 yds to the LSU 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:54
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+1
50.2%
Kewan Lacy run for 1 yd to the LSU 13Similar
Q1 2:26
2ND & 9
OPP 13
+6
49.7%
Trinidad Chambliss pass complete to Cayden Lee for 6 yds to the LSU 7Similar
Q1 1:44
3RD & 3
OPP 7
0
48.5%
Trinidad Chambliss pass incomplete to Dae'Quan Wright, broken up by Patrick PaytonSimilar
Q1 1:40
4TH & 4
OPP 7
+25
51.0%
Lucas Carneiro 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 6INT
8 plays · 46 yds · 2:1750% → 52%
Q1 1:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
50.1%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Barion Brown for 7 yds to the LSU 32Similar
Q1 1:06
2ND & 3
OWN 32
-2
49.3%
Zavion Thomas run for a loss of 2 yards to the LSU 30Similar
Q1 0:27
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+2
50.0%
Nussmeier, Garrett pass incomplete to Anderson, Aaron, PENALTY MISS pass interference (Braxton, Jaylon) 2 yards to the LSU32, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN LSU.Similar
Q1 0:18
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+25
49.5%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Chris Hilton Jr. for 10 yds to the MISS 42 for a 1ST down Ole Miss Penalty, Personal Foul (Jamarious Brown) to the MISS 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+5
48.5%
Nussmeier, Garrett pass incomplete to Hilton Jr., Chris, PENALTY MISS offside (Echoles, Will) 5 yards to the MISS38, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:53
1ST & 5
OPP 38
+9
48.3%
Barion Brown run for 9 yds to the MISS 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:16
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
47.6%
Garrett Nussmeier pass intercepted Wydett Williams Jr. return for no gain to the MISS 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 7PUNT
11 plays · 12 yds · 2:5750% → 48%
Q2 14:11
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
49.8%
Trinidad Chambliss pass incomplete to De'Zhaun StriblingSimilar
Q2 14:11
2ND & 10
OWN 12
-5
49.7%
Ole Miss Penalty, False Start (Diego Pounds) to the MISS 7Similar
Q2 14:03
2ND & 15
OWN 7
+18
49.4%
Trinidad Chambliss run for 3 yds to the MISS 10 for a 1ST down LSU Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Walter Mathis Jr.) to the MISS 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
50.0%
Trinidad Chambliss run for 9 yds to the MISS 34Similar
Q2 13:22
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+3
51.2%
Kewan Lacy run for 3 yds to the MISS 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:57
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-10
50.6%
Lacy, Kewan rush for 13 yards to the 50 yardline, PENALTY MISS holding (Hasz, Luke) 10 yards to the MISS27, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:41
1ST & 20
OWN 27
-1
49.8%
Trinidad Chambliss pass complete to Logan Diggs for a loss of 1 yard to the MISS 26Similar
Q2 12:03
2ND & 21
OWN 26
0
49.5%
Trinidad Chambliss pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:57
3RD & 21
OWN 26
+3
48.8%
Trinidad Chambliss run for 3 yds to the MISS 29Similar
Q2 11:22
4TH & 18
OWN 29
-5
48.3%
Bird, Oscar punt 44 yards to the LSU27, out-of-bounds, PENALTY MISS illegal formation 5 yards to the MISS24, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 11:14
4TH & 23
OWN 24
0
48.3%
Oscar Bird punt for 49 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the LSU 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:2551% → 50%
Q2 11:08
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
48.9%
Garrett Nussmeier pass incomplete to Barion BrownSimilar
Q2 11:01
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+4
49.4%
Zavion Thomas run for 4 yds to the LSU 31Similar
Q2 10:23
3RD & 6
OWN 31
+1
49.2%
Garrett Nussmeier run for 1 yd to the LSU 32Similar
Q2 9:43
4TH & 5
OWN 32
+10
49.7%
Grant Chadwick punt for 48 yds , Harrison Wallace III returns for 10 yds to the MISS 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 9FUMBLE
5 plays · 70 yds · 1:3750% → 52%
Q2 9:37
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+23
49.5%
Trinidad Chambliss pass complete to Deuce Alexander for 23 yds to the LSU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:10
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-1
52.0%
Kewan Lacy run for a loss of 1 yard to the LSU 48Similar
Q2 8:36
2ND & 11
OPP 48
0
51.6%
Trinidad Chambliss pass incomplete to Harrison Wallace IIISimilar
Q2 8:28
3RD & 11
OPP 48
+16
49.8%
Trinidad Chambliss pass complete to Deuce Alexander for 16 yds to the LSU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+32
52.0%
Trinidad Chambliss pass complete to Cayden Lee for 32 yds Cayden Lee fumbled, forced by A.J. Haulcy, recovered by LSU Whit WeeksSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 1:0453% → 51%
Q2 7:53
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-10
47.5%
Nussmeier, Garrett pass complete to Anderson, Aaron for 11 yards to the LSU31, PENALTY LSU holding (Green, Trey'Dez) 10 yards to the LSU10, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:40
1ST & 20
OWN 10
0
47.6%
Garrett Nussmeier pass incomplete to Aaron AndersonSimilar
Q2 7:31
2ND & 20
OWN 10
0
47.9%
Garrett Nussmeier pass incomplete to Trey'Dez Green, broken up by Antonio KiteSimilar
Q2 7:23
3RD & 20
OWN 10
+10
48.6%
Kaleb Jackson run for 10 yds to the LSU 20Similar
Q2 6:49
4TH & 10
OWN 20
0
49.3%
Grant Chadwick punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Harrison Wallace III at the MISS 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 11TD
10 plays · 70 yds · 1:3448% → 61%
Q2 6:43
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-10
48.2%
Lacy, Kewan rush for no gain to the MISS30, PENALTY MISS holding (Wright, Dae'Quan) 10 yards to the MISS20, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:19
1ST & 20
OWN 20
+15
47.7%
Chambliss, Trinidad pass incomplete to Wright, Dae'Quan, PENALTY LSU roughing passer (Weeks, West) 15 yards to the MISS35, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MISS.Similar
Q2 6:12
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
48.3%
Trinidad Chambliss pass incomplete to Dae'Quan Wright, broken up by Patrick PaytonSimilar
Q2 6:07
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
48.0%
Trinidad Chambliss pass incomplete to Deuce AlexanderSimilar
Q2 6:06
3RD & 10
OWN 35
+5
46.8%
LSU Penalty, Defensive Offside (Bernard Gooden) to the MISS 40Similar
Q2 5:59
3RD & 5
OWN 40
+12
49.2%
Trinidad Chambliss pass complete to Winston Watkins for 12 yds to the LSU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:43
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+4
51.0%
Trinidad Chambliss pass complete to Kewan Lacy for 4 yds to the LSU 44Similar
Q2 5:20
2ND & 6
OPP 44
+14
51.1%
Chambliss, Trinidad pass pass intended for Alexander, Deuce intercepted by Pickett, DJ at the LSU29, Pickett, DJ return 71 yards to the MISS0, PENALTY LSU pass interference (Pickett, DJ) 14 yards to the LSU30, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MISS.Similar
Q2 5:15
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+15
52.0%
Chambliss, Trinidad pass incomplete to Wallace III, Harrison, PENALTY LSU pass interference (Woodland, PJ) 15 yards to the LSU15, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MISS.Similar
Q2 5:09
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+15
60.6%
Kewan Lacy run for 15 yds for a TD (Lucas Carneiro KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 12PUNT
6 plays · 18 yds · 2:3743% → 43%
Q2 4:53
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+12
57.0%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Zavion Thomas for 12 yds to the LSU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:17
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+1
56.3%
Zavion Thomas run for 1 yd to the LSU 33Similar
Q2 3:48
2ND & 9
OWN 33
+5
56.8%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Aaron Anderson for 5 yds to the LSU 38Similar
Q2 2:59
3RD & 4
OWN 38
0
55.8%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Kaleb Jackson for no gain to the LSU 38Similar
Q2 2:16
4TH & 4
OWN 38
+7
57.5%
Grant Chadwick punt for 38 yds , Harrison Wallace III returns for 7 yds to the MISS 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 13TD
12 plays · 69 yds · 1:5658% → 71%
Q2 2:09
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+30
58.1%
Trinidad Chambliss pass complete to Cayden Lee for 30 yds to the LSU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:54
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-8
60.9%
Kewan Lacy run for 2 yds to the LSU 37 Ole Miss Penalty, Offensive Holding (Patrick Kutas) to the LSU 47Similar
Q2 1:39
1ST & 18
OPP 47
+25
59.6%
Trinidad Chambliss pass complete to Deuce Alexander for 25 yds to the LSU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:34
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+4
61.8%
Trinidad Chambliss run for 4 yds to the LSU 18Similar
Q2 0:54
2ND & 6
OPP 18
+4
62.0%
Kewan Lacy run for 4 yds to the LSU 14Similar
Q2 0:44
3RD & 2
OPP 14
+1
61.0%
Kewan Lacy run for 1 yd to the LSU 13Similar
Q2 0:26
4TH & 1
OPP 13
+8
60.5%
Trinidad Chambliss pass complete to Dae'Quan Wright for 8 yds to the LSU 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
62.7%
Kewan Lacy run for 3 yds to the LSU 2Similar
Q2 0:13
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
71.1%
Trinidad Chambliss pass complete to Cayden Lee for 2 yds for a TD (Lucas Carneiro KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 14END OF HALF
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0030% → 30%
Q2 0:04
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-2
70.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the LSU 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 15PUNT
7 plays · 15 yds · 2:3330% → 26%
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
70.0%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Barion Brown for 8 yds to the LSU 33Similar
Q3 14:33
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+5
68.7%
Ju'Juan Johnson run for 5 yds to the LSU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:55
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-8
69.4%
Garrett Nussmeier sacked by Will Echoles for a loss of 8 yards to the LSU 30Similar
Q3 13:07
2ND & 18
OWN 30
0
72.7%
Garrett Nussmeier pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:59
3RD & 18
OWN 30
+10
73.9%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Kaleb Jackson for 10 yds to the LSU 40Similar
Q3 12:19
4TH & 8
OWN 40
0
74.1%
Grant Chadwick punt for 53 yds, fair catch by Harrison Wallace III at the MISS 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 16PUNT
7 plays · 12 yds · 1:3873% → 73%
Q3 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 7
0
73.1%
Trinidad Chambliss pass incomplete to Deuce AlexanderSimilar
Q3 12:09
2ND & 10
OWN 7
-1
72.9%
Kewan Lacy run for a loss of 1 yard to the MISS 6Similar
Q3 11:54
3RD & 11
OWN 6
+11
72.2%
Trinidad Chambliss run for 11 yds to the MISS 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:32
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
74.1%
Trinidad Chambliss pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:27
2ND & 10
OWN 17
+2
73.8%
Trinidad Chambliss run for 2 yds to the MISS 19Similar
Q3 10:42
3RD & 8
OWN 19
0
73.5%
Trinidad Chambliss pass incomplete to Deuce AlexanderSimilar
Q3 10:37
4TH & 8
OWN 19
0
72.6%
Oscar Bird punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Zavion Thomas at the LSU 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 17FG
9 plays · 33 yds · 4:2928% → 31%
Q3 10:31
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
72.5%
Harlem Berry run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 9:57
2ND & 5
50
+2
72.4%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Harlem Berry for 2 yds to the MISS 48Similar
Q3 9:36
3RD & 3
OPP 48
+3
73.0%
Harlem Berry run for 3 yds to the MISS 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:59
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+6
72.9%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Barion Brown for 6 yds to the MISS 39Similar
Q3 8:20
2ND & 4
OPP 39
+15
72.8%
Nussmeier, Garrett pass incomplete to Hilton Jr., Chris, PENALTY MISS pass interference (Graves Jr., Chris) 15 yards to the MISS24, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN LSU.Similar
Q3 8:14
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
71.6%
Harlem Berry run for no gain to the MISS 24Similar
Q3 7:30
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+1
72.5%
Harlem Berry run for 1 yd to the MISS 23Similar
Q3 6:41
3RD & 9
OPP 23
+1
74.4%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Zavion Thomas for 1 yd to the MISS 22Similar
Q3 6:02
4TH & 8
OPP 22
+39
68.9%
Damian Ramos 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 18INT
8 plays · 32 yds · 2:4475% → 78%
Q3 5:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
74.8%
Deuce Alexander run for 3 yds to the MISS 28Similar
Q3 5:35
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+12
74.9%
Trinidad Chambliss pass complete to Caleb Odom for 12 yds to the MISS 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:19
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
77.0%
Trinidad Chambliss run for 2 yds to the MISS 42Similar
Q3 4:46
2ND & 8
OWN 42
-1
76.9%
Kewan Lacy run for a loss of 1 yard to the MISS 41Similar
Q3 4:16
3RD & 9
OWN 41
+13
75.4%
Trinidad Chambliss pass complete to Winston Watkins for 13 yds to the LSU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:52
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+3
78.2%
Kewan Lacy run for 3 yds to the LSU 43Similar
Q3 3:12
2ND & 7
OPP 43
-31
78.4%
Trinidad Chambliss pass intercepted PJ Woodland return for 31 yds to the MISS 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 19FG
7 plays · 16 yds · 2:0932% → 31%
Q3 3:07
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+1
68.4%
Ju'Juan Johnson run for 1 yd to the MISS 46Similar
Q3 2:29
2ND & 9
OPP 46
+15
68.7%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Barion Brown for 15 yds to the MISS 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:56
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
67.0%
Garrett Nussmeier pass incomplete to Zavion ThomasSimilar
Q3 1:53
2ND & 10
OPP 31
0
67.1%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Kyle Parker for no gain to the MISS 31Similar
Q3 1:03
3RD & 10
OPP 31
0
71.5%
Garrett Nussmeier pass incomplete to Kyle ParkerSimilar
Q3 0:58
4TH & 10
OPP 31
+48
69.1%
Damian Ramos 48 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 20TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 4:4670% → 90%
Q3 0:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
69.8%
Trinidad Chambliss pass incomplete to Cayden LeeSimilar
Q3 0:42
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+26
69.4%
Trinidad Chambliss pass complete to Dae'Quan Wright for 26 yds to the LSU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:08
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-10
73.9%
Chambliss, Trinidad pass complete to Lee, Cayden for 10 yards to the LSU39, PENALTY MISS holding (Wilkins, PJ) 10 yards to the MISS41, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:56
1ST & 20
OWN 41
0
71.5%
Trinidad Chambliss pass incomplete to Kewan LacySimilar
Q4 14:50
2ND & 20
OWN 41
+12
71.1%
Trinidad Chambliss pass complete to De'Zhaun Stribling for 12 yds to the LSU 47Similar
Q4 14:12
3RD & 8
OPP 47
-6
73.0%
Kewan Lacy run for 4 yds to the MISS 43 Ole Miss Penalty, Offensive Holding (De'Zhaun Stribling) to the MISS 47Similar
Q4 13:59
3RD & 14
OWN 47
+18
70.3%
Trinidad Chambliss pass complete to Harrison Wallace III for 18 yds to the LSU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:28
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+12
76.2%
Trinidad Chambliss pass complete to Caleb Odom for 12 yds to the LSU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:04
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+8
76.4%
Trinidad Chambliss pass complete to Kewan Lacy for 8 yds to the LSU 15Similar
Q4 12:19
2ND & 2
OPP 15
+12
76.7%
Kewan Lacy run for 12 yds to the LSU 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-3
76.9%
Kewan Lacy run for a loss of 3 yards to the LSU 6Similar
Q4 11:08
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
90.3%
Logan Diggs run for 6 yds for a TD (Lucas Carneiro KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 21TD
19 plays · 80 yds · 5:5011% → 23%
Q4 10:54
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-2
89.2%
Harlem Berry run for a loss of 2 yards to the LSU 18Similar
Q4 10:16
2ND & 12
OWN 18
+10
90.7%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Kyle Parker for 10 yds to the LSU 28Similar
Q4 9:50
3RD & 2
OWN 28
+6
90.0%
Ju'Juan Johnson run for 6 yds to the LSU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:24
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+21
90.3%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Nic Anderson for 21 yds to the MISS 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:55
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
89.3%
Garrett Nussmeier pass incomplete to Chris Hilton Jr.Similar
Q4 8:51
2ND & 10
OPP 45
0
89.4%
Garrett Nussmeier pass incomplete to Kaleb JacksonSimilar
Q4 8:40
3RD & 10
OPP 45
+7
89.9%
Ju'Juan Johnson run for 7 yds to the MISS 38Similar
Q4 7:56
4TH & 3
OPP 38
+3
90.7%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Kyle Parker for 3 yds to the MISS 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:26
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+9
89.5%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Bauer Sharp for 9 yds to the MISS 26Similar
Q4 6:58
2ND & 1
OPP 26
0
89.3%
Garrett Nussmeier pass incomplete to Barion BrownSimilar
Q4 6:52
3RD & 1
OPP 26
0
90.1%
Ju'Juan Johnson run for no gain to the MISS 26Similar
Q4 6:13
4TH & 1
OPP 26
-4
93.4%
LSU Penalty, False Start (Josh Thompson) to the MISS 30Similar
Q4 6:03
4TH & 5
OPP 30
+10
93.9%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Kyle Parker for 10 yds to the MISS 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:48
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
92.5%
Garrett Nussmeier pass incomplete to Zavion ThomasSimilar
Q4 5:43
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+5
92.7%
Nussmeier, Garrett pass sacked for loss of 5 yards to the MISS25 (Womack, Da'Shawn), PENALTY MISS offside (Womack, Da'Shawn) 5 yards to the MISS15, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 5:30
2ND & 5
OPP 15
+9
92.6%
Harlem Berry run for 9 yds to the MISS 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
77.4%
Harlem Berry run for 6 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 22END OF GAME
14 plays · 56 yds · 4:3387% → 96%
Q4 4:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
87.0%
Trinidad Chambliss run for 1 yd to the MISS 26Similar
Q4 4:13
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+11
87.7%
Trinidad Chambliss run for 11 yds to the MISS 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:29
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
89.8%
Kewan Lacy run for 4 yds to the MISS 41Similar
Q4 2:43
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+17
91.3%
Kewan Lacy run for 17 yds to the LSU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+3
93.9%
Kewan Lacy run for 3 yds to the LSU 39Similar
Q4 1:53
2ND & 7
OPP 39
+4
94.0%
Trinidad Chambliss run for 4 yds to the LSU 35Similar
Q4 1:47
3RD & 3
OPP 35
0
94.1%
Trinidad Chambliss run for no gain to the LSU 35Similar
Q4 1:37
4TH & 3
OPP 35
+20
94.1%
Trinidad Chambliss pass complete to Dae'Quan Wright for 20 yds to the LSU 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:20
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-2
95.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the LSU 17Similar
Q4 0:42
2ND & 12
OPP 17
-2
96.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the LSU 19Similar
Q4 0:23
3RD & 14
OPP 19
0
96.2%
TEAM run for no gain to the LSU 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 5:04
Harlem Berry run for 6 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)
-15.1
TD · Q4 11:08
Logan Diggs run for 6 yds for a TD (Lucas Carneiro KICK)
+13.3
TD · Q2 5:09
Kewan Lacy run for 15 yds for a TD (Lucas Carneiro KICK)
+8.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com