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ALA

Alabama 24 at Georgia 21

UGA
2025 · Week 5 · Sep 27, 2025 · Sanford Stadium
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Win probability · UGA
modelUGA aheadALA aheadconfidence bandkey playUGA scoreALA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 8:10 · Blake Doud punt for 35 yds, downed at the UGA 5
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+34.0+17.00−17.0−34.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 141Home team on offense−11.3Pregame prior+0.7Score differential−4.4Garbage-time factor−3.9Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−3.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 12:48: Gunner Stockton pass complete to Colbie Young for 38 yds for a TD (Peyton Woodring KICK) — UGA win probability +7.7 pts (now 53%) (top driver: UGA has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 8:30: Conor Talty 24 yd FG GOOD — UGA win probability +6.4 pts (now 55%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 2:08: Chauncey Bowens run for 2 yds for a TD (Peyton Woodring KICK) — UGA win probability +12.4 pts (now 58%) (top driver: UGA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 0:34: Ty Simpson run for 2 yds for a TD (Conor Talty KICK) — ALA win probability +11.2 pts (now 67%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 6:30: Josh McCray run for 1 yd for a TD (Peyton Woodring KICK) — UGA win probability +18.6 pts (now 55%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UGA made the numbers' call on 5 of 5ALA made the numbers' call on 3 of 6
  1. Q1 14:11UGA 4th & 8 at UGA 27, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.7%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:58UGA 4th & 5 at UGA 39, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.4%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.4%
    average punt
  3. Q2 10:42ALA 4th & 7 at UGA 45, up 7
    Close callPunted · 50.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.6%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    49.6%−1.1
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    50.6%−<0.1
    average punt
  4. Q2 8:30ALA 4th & 5 at UGA 6, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 52.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.1%
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    51.9%−0.1
    91% to make
    Punt
    47.4%−4.7
    average punt
  5. Q3 9:37ALA 4th & 11 at UGA 26, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 65.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.4%−1.5
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    64.9%
    64% to make
    Punt
    58.2%−6.7
    average punt
  6. Q3 3:43ALA 4th & 1 at UGA 47, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 55.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    55.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    51.6%−4.2
    average punt
  7. Q3 2:52UGA 4th & 9 at midfield, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.8%−0.8
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.5%
    average punt
  8. Q3 2:30ALA 4th & 10 at ALA 8, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.0%−3.4
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.4%
    average punt
  9. Q4 13:20UGA 4th & 1 at ALA 8, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 50.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    50.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    45.7%−4.6
    90% to make
    Punt
    31.7%−18.6
    average punt
  10. Q4 8:10ALA 4th & 7 at UGA 40, up 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.3 ptsPunted · 65.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.8%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    62.9%−2.9
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    63.5%−2.3
    average punt
  11. Q4 3:19UGA 4th & 13 at UGA 45, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.9%−0.2
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.1%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UGA made the numbers' call on 3 of 3ALA made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 7:41ALA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    43.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    43.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:01ALA Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    53.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    53.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 12:48UGA Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    50.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    50.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 2:08UGA Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    51.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    51.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:34ALA Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 6:30UGA Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    47.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UGADrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:3155% → 55%
Q1 14:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
55.3%
Nate Frazier run for 2 yds to the UGA 27Similar
Q1 14:24
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
55.4%
Gunner Stockton pass incomplete to Colbie YoungSimilar
Q1 14:19
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
55.3%
Gunner Stockton pass incomplete to Zachariah BranchSimilar
Q1 14:11
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
55.3%
Brett Thorson punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Cole Adams at the ALA 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 2TD
17 plays · 74 yds · 6:0745% → 48%
Q1 13:48
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+2
55.4%
Jam Miller run for 2 yds to the ALA 28Similar
Q1 13:25
2ND & 8
OWN 28
0
55.4%
Ty Simpson pass incomplete to Isaiah HortonSimilar
Q1 13:15
3RD & 8
OWN 28
+10
55.5%
Ty Simpson run for 10 yds to the ALA 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
55.4%
Jam Miller run for no gain to the ALA 38Similar
Q1 11:53
2ND & 10
OWN 38
0
55.4%
Ty Simpson pass incomplete to Ryan WilliamsSimilar
Q1 11:48
3RD & 10
OWN 38
+10
55.6%
Ty Simpson pass complete to Isaiah Horton for 10 yds to the ALA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:17
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
55.2%
Ty Simpson pass incomplete to Isaiah HortonSimilar
Q1 10:53
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+5
55.3%
Kevin Riley run for 5 yds to the UGA 47Similar
Q1 10:00
3RD & 5
OPP 47
+24
55.2%
Ty Simpson pass complete to Isaiah Horton for 24 yds to the UGA 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:53
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-5
55.1%
Alabama Penalty, False Start (Jam Miller) to the UGA 28Similar
Q1 9:45
1ST & 15
OPP 28
+2
55.2%
Jam Miller run for 2 yds to the UGA 26Similar
Q1 8:51
2ND & 13
OPP 26
+18
55.1%
Ty Simpson pass complete to Germie Bernard for 18 yds to the UGA 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
54.9%
Jam Miller run for 2 yds to the UGA 6Similar
Q1 7:45
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
55.0%
Ty Simpson pass incomplete to Isaiah HortonSimilar
Q1 7:41
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
52.3%
Ty Simpson pass complete to Germie Bernard for 6 yds for a TD (Conor Talty KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 3PUNT
7 plays · 24 yds · 1:0254% → 54%
Q1 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-5
54.1%
Stockton, Gunner pass complete to Young, Colbie for 8 yards to the UGA23, PENALTY UGA ineligible downfield on pass (Hughley, Bo) 5 yards to the UGA10, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 6:49
1ST & 15
OWN 10
+24
54.1%
Nate Frazier run for 24 yds to the UGA 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
54.3%
Gunner Stockton pass incomplete to Henry DelpSimilar
Q1 6:10
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+5
53.8%
Chauncey Bowens run for 5 yds to the UGA 39Similar
Q1 6:05
3RD & 5
OWN 39
0
53.9%
Gunner Stockton pass incomplete to Zachariah BranchSimilar
Q1 5:58
4TH & 5
OWN 39
0
53.9%
Brett Thorson punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Cole Adams at the ALA 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 4TD
15 plays · 83 yds · 6:3348% → 55%
Q1 5:34
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+3
52.5%
Jam Miller run for 3 yds to the ALA 20Similar
Q1 5:23
2ND & 7
OWN 20
0
52.4%
Ty Simpson pass incomplete to Germie BernardSimilar
Q1 4:55
3RD & 7
OWN 20
+12
52.5%
Ty Simpson pass complete to Josh Cuevas for 12 yds to the ALA 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-6
51.7%
Germie Bernard sacked by Chris Cole for a loss of 6 yards to the ALA 26Similar
Q1 3:15
2ND & 16
OWN 26
+10
51.9%
Ty Simpson pass complete to Kevin Riley for 10 yds to the ALA 36Similar
Q1 2:40
3RD & 6
OWN 36
+7
54.0%
Ty Simpson pass complete to Ryan Williams for 7 yds to the ALA 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:04
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+5
52.2%
Ty Simpson pass complete to Germie Bernard for 5 yds to the ALA 48Similar
Q1 1:35
2ND & 5
OWN 48
+3
51.8%
Jam Miller run for 3 yds to the UGA 49Similar
Q1 1:12
3RD & 2
OPP 49
+11
51.4%
Germie Bernard run for 11 yds to the UGA 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:50
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+19
51.0%
Ty Simpson pass complete to Lotzeir Brooks for 19 yds to the UGA 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:01
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+4
50.9%
Kevin Riley run for 4 yds to the UGA 15Similar
Q2 14:34
2ND & 6
OPP 15
+2
50.7%
Jam Miller run for 2 yds to the UGA 13Similar
Q2 14:11
3RD & 4
OPP 13
+7
50.8%
Jam Miller run for 7 yds to the UGA 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
45.1%
Ty Simpson pass complete to Isaiah Horton for 6 yds for a TD (Conor Talty KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 5TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 0:4744% → 53%
Q2 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
44.4%
Gunner Stockton pass complete to Zachariah Branch for 8 yds to the UGA 33Similar
Q2 13:14
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+29
44.9%
Chauncey Bowens run for 29 yds to the ALA 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:48
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+38
52.6%
Gunner Stockton pass complete to Colbie Young for 38 yds for a TD (Peyton Woodring KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 6PUNT
6 plays · 30 yds · 1:3849% → 50%
Q2 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+27
51.5%
Ty Simpson pass complete to Kevin Riley for 27 yds to the UGA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:44
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+2
49.4%
Ty Simpson pass complete to Germie Bernard for 2 yds to the UGA 46Similar
Q2 11:00
2ND & 8
OPP 46
+1
49.1%
Kevin Riley run for 1 yd to the UGA 45Similar
Q2 10:50
3RD & 7
OPP 45
0
49.2%
Ty Simpson pass incomplete to Rico ScottSimilar
Q2 10:42
4TH & 7
OPP 45
0
50.3%
Blake Doud punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Zachariah Branch at the UGA 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 7FUMBLE
2 plays · 4 yds · 0:2450% → 49%
Q2 10:22
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+2
49.8%
Nate Frazier run for 2 yds to the UGA 9Similar
Q2 9:58
2ND & 8
OWN 9
+2
49.3%
Nate Frazier run for 2 yds to the UGA 11 Nate Frazier fumbled, forced by Bray Hubbard, recovered by ALA Deontae LawsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 8FG
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:5552% → 45%
Q2 9:25
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+3
47.9%
Jam Miller run for 3 yds to the UGA 8Similar
Q2 8:52
2ND & 7
OPP 8
+2
47.7%
Jam Miller run for 2 yds to the UGA 6Similar
Q2 8:33
3RD & 5
OPP 6
0
48.8%
Ty Simpson pass incomplete to Germie BernardSimilar
Q2 8:30
4TH & 5
OPP 6
+24
55.2%
Conor Talty 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 9TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 5:3744% → 58%
Q2 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-6
43.9%
Zachariah Branch run for a loss of 6 yards to the UGA 19Similar
Q2 7:00
2ND & 16
OWN 19
+17
43.3%
Gunner Stockton pass complete to Colbie Young for 17 yds to the UGA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:39
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
44.0%
Chauncey Bowens run for 4 yds to the UGA 40Similar
Q2 6:08
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+9
44.3%
Gunner Stockton pass complete to London Humphreys for 9 yds to the UGA 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:18
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-2
44.4%
Gunner Stockton sacked by Edric Hill and LT Overton for a loss of 2 yards to the UGA 47Similar
Q2 4:52
2ND & 12
OWN 47
+43
43.6%
Chauncey Bowens run for 43 yds to the ALA 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+5
45.9%
Gunner Stockton pass complete to Zachariah Branch for 5 yds to the ALA 5Similar
Q2 3:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
45.7%
Josh McCray run for 3 yds to the ALA 2Similar
Q2 3:14
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
0
44.1%
Josh McCray run for no gain to the ALA 2Similar
Q2 2:45
4TH & 0
OPP 2
+1
43.0%
Stockton, Gunner pass complete to Bowens, Chauncey for 1 yard to the ALA1, PENALTY ALA holding 1 yards to the ALA1, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN UGA.Similar
Q2 2:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
45.4%
Chauncey Bowens run for a loss of 1 yard to the ALA 2Similar
Q2 2:08
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
57.8%
Chauncey Bowens run for 2 yds for a TD (Peyton Woodring KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 10TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 1:2650% → 63%
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
50.5%
Kevin Riley run for 2 yds to the ALA 27Similar
Q2 1:54
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+7
50.4%
Ty Simpson pass complete to Ryan Williams for 7 yds to the ALA 34Similar
Q2 1:28
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+4
48.8%
Germie Bernard pass complete to Isaiah Horton for 4 yds to the ALA 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:10
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+18
47.2%
Ty Simpson pass complete to Ryan Williams for 18 yds to the UGA 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:03
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
45.1%
Ty Simpson pass incomplete to Ryan WilliamsSimilar
Q2 0:53
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+21
45.6%
Ty Simpson pass complete to Lotzeir Brooks for 21 yds to the UGA 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:46
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+10
44.8%
Simpson, Ty pass complete to Bernard, Germie for 4 yards to the UGA19, PENALTY UGA holding (Everette, Daylen) 10 yards to the UGA13, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN ALA.Similar
Q2 0:39
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+11
44.6%
Kadyn Proctor run for 11 yds to the UGA 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
33.4%
Ty Simpson run for 2 yds for a TD (Conor Talty KICK)Similar
Q2 0:34
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+15
37.4%
Georgia Penalty, Personal Foul (Xzavier McLeod) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 11END OF HALF
3 plays · 12 yds · 0:2237% → 37%
Q2 0:22
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+10
37.1%
Chauncey Bowens run for 10 yds to the UGA 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
37.0%
Gunner Stockton pass complete to Chauncey Bowens for 2 yds to the UGA 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 12MISSED FG
11 plays · 49 yds · 4:4263% → 66%
Q3 14:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
37.0%
Ty Simpson pass complete to Jam Miller for 14 yds to the ALA 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:15
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
35.6%
Jam Miller run for 4 yds to the ALA 43Similar
Q3 13:19
2ND & 6
OWN 43
+8
34.9%
Germie Bernard run for 8 yds to the UGA 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:45
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
33.6%
Kevin Riley run for 4 yds to the UGA 45Similar
Q3 12:09
2ND & 6
OPP 45
+3
33.4%
Kevin Riley run for 3 yds to the UGA 42Similar
Q3 11:15
3RD & 3
OPP 42
+17
33.4%
Ty Simpson pass complete to Kaleb Edwards for 17 yds to the UGA 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:44
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-2
32.0%
Ty Simpson pass complete to Jam Miller for a loss of 2 yards to the UGA 27Similar
Q3 9:53
2ND & 12
OPP 27
+1
31.8%
Germie Bernard run for 1 yd to the UGA 26Similar
Q3 9:42
3RD & 11
OPP 26
0
32.6%
Ty Simpson pass incomplete to Josh CuevasSimilar
Q3 9:37
4TH & 11
OPP 26
+43
34.1%
Conor Talty 43 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 13TD
6 plays · 74 yds · 2:3533% → 55%
Q3 9:05
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+6
33.0%
Gunner Stockton pass complete to Chauncey Bowens for 6 yds to the UGA 32Similar
Q3 8:48
2ND & 4
OWN 32
+43
33.4%
Dillon Bell run for 43 yds to the ALA 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:40
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+14
36.6%
Chauncey Bowens run for 14 yds to the ALA 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:30
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+6
36.4%
Chauncey Bowens run for 1 yd to the ALA 10 for a 1ST down Alabama Penalty, Personal Foul (LT Overton) to the ALA 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
36.2%
Josh McCray run for 4 yds to the ALA 1Similar
Q3 6:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
54.8%
Josh McCray run for 1 yd for a TD (Peyton Woodring KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 14DOWNS
7 plays · 26 yds · 2:2454% → 56%
Q3 6:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
46.2%
Ty Simpson pass complete to Germie Bernard for 4 yds to the ALA 29Similar
Q3 5:30
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+15
45.2%
Riley, Kevin rush for 1 yard to the ALA30, PENALTY UGA personal foul (Johnson, Quintavius) 15 yards to the ALA44, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN ALA.Similar
Q3 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+5
42.8%
Kevin Riley run for 5 yds to the ALA 49Similar
Q3 4:40
2ND & 5
OWN 49
+4
41.8%
Kevin Riley run for 4 yds to the UGA 47Similar
Q3 4:27
3RD & 1
OPP 47
0
41.4%
Kevin Riley run for no gain to the UGA 47Similar
Q3 3:43
4TH & 1
OPP 47
-2
43.8%
Ty Simpson run for a loss of 2 yards to the UGA 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:1852% → 47%
Q3 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+1
52.1%
Dwight Phillips Jr. run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 3:03
2ND & 9
50
0
52.2%
Gunner Stockton pass incomplete to Talyn TaylorSimilar
Q3 2:59
3RD & 9
50
0
49.1%
Gunner Stockton pass incomplete to Zachariah BranchSimilar
Q3 2:52
4TH & 9
50
0
47.0%
Brett Thorson punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Cole Adams at the ALA 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:1655% → 52%
Q3 2:46
1ST & 10
OWN 8
0
45.2%
Ty Simpson pass incomplete to Germie BernardSimilar
Q3 2:42
2ND & 10
OWN 8
0
45.6%
Ty Simpson pass incomplete to Rico ScottSimilar
Q3 2:37
3RD & 10
OWN 8
0
47.0%
Ty Simpson pass incomplete to Ryan WilliamsSimilar
Q3 2:30
4TH & 10
OWN 8
0
48.4%
Blake Doud punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Zachariah Branch at the UGA 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 17DOWNS
9 plays · 43 yds · 3:4652% → 50%
Q3 2:06
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
51.5%
Gunner Stockton pass complete to Colbie Young for 3 yds to the UGA 49Similar
Q3 1:47
2ND & 7
OWN 49
+3
51.8%
Gunner Stockton run for 3 yds to the ALA 48Similar
Q3 1:16
3RD & 4
OPP 48
+21
51.7%
Gunner Stockton run for 21 yds to the ALA 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+4
54.9%
Chauncey Bowens run for 4 yds to the ALA 23Similar
Q3 0:01
2ND & 6
OPP 23
+6
54.8%
Chauncey Bowens run for 6 yds to the ALA 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:20
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+7
54.8%
Josh McCray run for 7 yds to the ALA 10Similar
Q4 13:56
2ND & 3
OPP 10
0
54.8%
Josh McCray run for no gain to the ALA 10Similar
Q4 13:45
3RD & 3
OPP 10
+2
51.9%
Gunner Stockton run for 2 yds to the ALA 8Similar
Q4 13:20
4TH & 1
OPP 8
-3
49.5%
Cash Jones run for a loss of 3 yards to the ALA 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 18PUNT
11 plays · 49 yds · 4:5057% → 66%
Q4 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+2
43.3%
Kevin Riley run for 2 yds to the ALA 13Similar
Q4 12:46
2ND & 8
OWN 13
0
43.6%
Ty Simpson pass incomplete to Germie BernardSimilar
Q4 12:12
3RD & 8
OWN 13
+9
42.9%
Ty Simpson pass complete to Ryan Williams for 9 yds to the ALA 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:40
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+2
40.3%
Jam Miller run for 2 yds to the ALA 24Similar
Q4 11:10
2ND & 8
OWN 24
+21
40.2%
Ty Simpson pass complete to Isaiah Horton for 21 yds to the ALA 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:15
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+12
33.7%
Ty Simpson pass complete to Josh Cuevas for 12 yds to the UGA 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:31
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-5
32.0%
Alabama Penalty, False Start (Geno VanDeMark) to the UGA 48Similar
Q4 9:14
1ST & 15
OPP 48
+2
33.1%
Ty Simpson pass complete to Ryan Williams for 2 yds to the UGA 46Similar
Q4 8:29
2ND & 13
OPP 46
+6
31.8%
Germie Bernard run for 6 yds to the UGA 40Similar
Q4 8:19
3RD & 7
OPP 40
0
31.4%
Ty Simpson pass incomplete to Isaiah HortonSimilar
Q4 8:10
4TH & 7
OPP 40
0
34.0%
Blake Doud punt for 35 yds, downed at the UGA 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 19PUNT
11 plays · 40 yds · 4:3241% → 34%
Q4 7:51
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+10
40.6%
Zachariah Branch run for 10 yds to the UGA 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-6
41.2%
Chauncey Bowens run for 2 yds to the UGA 17 Georgia Penalty, Offensive Holding (Bo Hughley) to the UGA 9Similar
Q4 7:00
1ST & 16
OWN 9
+7
38.8%
Gunner Stockton pass complete to Chauncey Bowens for 7 yds to the UGA 16Similar
Q4 6:15
2ND & 9
OWN 16
-2
38.4%
Gunner Stockton run for a loss of 2 yards to the UGA 14Similar
Q4 5:40
3RD & 11
OWN 14
+22
36.3%
Gunner Stockton pass complete to Zachariah Branch for 22 yds to the UGA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
39.0%
Gunner Stockton pass complete to Sacovie White-Helton for 5 yds to the UGA 41Similar
Q4 4:15
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+7
42.2%
Gunner Stockton pass complete to Chauncey Bowens for 7 yds to the UGA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+1
42.6%
Gunner Stockton pass complete to Colbie Young for 1 yd to the UGA 49Similar
Q4 3:38
2ND & 9
OWN 49
0
42.2%
Gunner Stockton pass incomplete to Zachariah BranchSimilar
Q4 3:20
3RD & 9
OWN 49
-4
38.5%
Cash Jones run for a loss of 4 yards to the UGA 45Similar
Q4 3:19
4TH & 13
OWN 45
0
34.2%
Brett Thorson punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Cole Adams at the ALA 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 20END OF GAME
12 plays · 36 yds · 2:5176% → 94%
Q4 2:52
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+7
24.3%
Jam Miller run for 7 yds to the ALA 19Similar
Q4 2:23
2ND & 3
OWN 19
+2
21.8%
Jam Miller run for 2 yds to the ALA 21Similar
Q4 2:16
3RD & 1
OWN 21
+17
22.0%
Ty Simpson run for 2 yds to the ALA 23 for a 1ST down Georgia Penalty, Personal Foul (Ellis Robinson IV) to the ALA 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+6
14.4%
Jam Miller run for 6 yds to the ALA 44Similar
Q4 1:51
2ND & 4
OWN 44
-1
11.7%
Jam Miller run for a loss of 1 yard to the ALA 43Similar
Q4 1:29
3RD & 5
OWN 43
+7
11.9%
Ty Simpson pass complete to Jam Miller for 7 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:45
1ST & 10
50
-1
6.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the ALA 49Similar
Q4 0:01
2ND & 11
OWN 49
-1
6.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the ALA 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 6:30
Josh McCray run for 1 yd for a TD (Peyton Woodring KICK)
+18.6
TD · Q2 2:08
Chauncey Bowens run for 2 yds for a TD (Peyton Woodring KICK)
+12.4
TD · Q2 0:34
Ty Simpson run for 2 yds for a TD (Conor Talty KICK)
-11.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com