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Notre Dame 56 at Arkansas 13

ARK
2025 · Week 5 · Sep 27, 2025 · Razorback Stadium
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Win probability · ARK
modelARK aheadND aheadconfidence bandkey playARK scoreND score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 7:28 · Devin Bale punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Jordan Faison at the ND 27
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+59.0+29.50−29.5−59.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 25Home team on offense−0.8Score differential−0.1Pregame prior−12.9Garbage-time factor−0.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 11:19: JacQawn McRoy run for 1 yd for a TD (Scott Starzyk KICK) — ARK win probability +7.0 pts (now 41%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
  2. TD · Q2 8:26: CJ Carr pass complete to Will Pauling for 23 yds for a TD (Noah Burnette KICK) — ND win probability +6.9 pts (now 70%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 6:04: CJ Carr pass complete to Jeremiyah Love for 34 yds for a TD (Noah Burnette KICK) — ND win probability +10.6 pts (now 82%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 0:35: Jeremiyah Love run for 3 yds for a TD (Noah Burnette KICK) — ND win probability +8.6 pts (now 91%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
  5. TD · Q2 0:09: CJ Carr pass complete to Jadarian Price for 35 yds for a TD (Noah Burnette KICK) — ND win probability +4.6 pts (now 96%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ARK made the numbers' call on 5 of 7ND made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q1 12:55ARK 4th & 3 at ND 21, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 38.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.5%
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    38.5%−<0.1
    74% to make
    Punt
    38.1%−0.4
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:28ARK 4th & 5 at ARK 30, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.5%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.6%
    average punt
  3. Q2 7:29ARK 4th & 9 at ARK 26, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.1%−0.8
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.8%
    average punt
  4. Q2 3:48ARK 4th & 20 at ND 31, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 22.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.3%−1.7
    10% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    22.0%
    54% to make
    Punt
    20.7%−1.3
    average punt
  5. Q2 1:12ND 4th & 2 at ARK 24, up 15
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 79.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    79.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    79.1%−0.4
    68% to make
    Punt
    73.3%−6.1
    average punt
  6. Q3 13:30ND 4th & 10 at ND 25, up 29
    Close callWent for it · 94.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    94.3%−0.4
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    94.7%
    average punt
  7. Q3 10:55ND 4th & 1 at ARK 26, up 29
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 96.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    96.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    96.1%−0.1
    64% to make
    Punt
    95.8%−0.5
    average punt
  8. Q3 6:38ARK 4th & 9 at ND 13, down 29
    Close callWent for it · 2.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.8%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    2.9%
    85% to make
    Punt
    2.4%−0.4
    average punt
  9. Q4 14:55ARK 4th & 2 at ARK 33, down 36
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.5%−<0.1
    average punt
  10. Q4 11:01ARK 4th & 8 at ND 36, down 36
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.3%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    0.3%−<0.1
    42% to make
    Punt
    0.3%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ARK made the numbers' call on 1 of 1ND made the numbers' call on 8 of 8
  1. Q1 8:16ND Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 4:14ND Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 11:19ARK Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    40.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    40.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 8:26ND Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 6:04ND Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 0:35ND Touchdown, up 21 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 0:09ND Touchdown, up 28 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 1:01ND Touchdown, up 35 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 8:54ND Touchdown, up 42 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ARKDrive 1FG
8 plays · 54 yds · 2:0136% → 37%
Q1 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
35.5%
Taylen Green pass incomplete to O'Mega BlakeSimilar
Q1 14:48
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+14
35.5%
Taylen Green run for 14 yds to the ARK 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:25
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+33
35.7%
Taylen Green pass complete to O'Mega Blake for 33 yds to the ND 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:54
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+7
36.1%
Braylen Russell run for 7 yds to the ND 21Similar
Q1 13:22
2ND & 3
OPP 21
0
36.4%
Taylen Green pass incomplete to O'Mega BlakeSimilar
Q1 13:16
3RD & 3
OPP 21
0
36.4%
Taylen Green pass incomplete to Raylen SharpeSimilar
Q1 12:55
4TH & 3
OPP 21
+39
36.6%
Scott Starzyk 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 2TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 4:3263% → 64%
Q1 12:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-12
36.6%
Carr, CJ pass complete to Fields, Malachi for 22 yards to the NOTREDAME47, PENALTY NOTREDAME pass interference (Faison, Jordan) 12 yards to the NOTREDAME13, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 12:34
1ST & 22
OWN 13
+4
36.7%
Jeremiyah Love run for 4 yds to the ND 17Similar
Q1 11:55
2ND & 18
OWN 17
+21
37.1%
CJ Carr pass complete to Malachi Fields for 21 yds to the ND 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:26
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
37.1%
Jeremiyah Love run for 3 yds to the ND 41Similar
Q1 10:56
2ND & 7
OWN 41
+25
37.2%
CJ Carr pass complete to Jeremiyah Love for 25 yds to the ARK 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:40
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
37.1%
CJ Carr pass incomplete to Jaden Greathouse, broken up by Jordan YoungSimilar
Q1 10:33
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+3
37.1%
Jeremiyah Love run for 3 yds to the ARK 31Similar
Q1 9:49
3RD & 7
OPP 31
+15
37.6%
Jeremiyah Love run for 15 yds to the ARK 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:05
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+1
37.8%
Jadarian Price run for 1 yd to the ARK 15Similar
Q1 8:29
2ND & 9
OPP 15
+14
37.9%
Jadarian Price run for 14 yds to the ARK 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
36.3%
Jeremiyah Love run for 1 yd for a TD (Noah Burnette KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:4337% → 37%
Q1 8:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
37.0%
Mike Washington Jr. run for 5 yds to the ARK 30Similar
Q1 7:40
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
37.2%
Taylen Green pass incomplete to Jaden Platt, broken up by Adon ShulerSimilar
Q1 7:35
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
36.9%
Taylen Green pass incomplete to Braylen RussellSimilar
Q1 7:28
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
36.5%
Devin Bale punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Jordan Faison at the ND 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 4TD
6 plays · 73 yds · 3:0763% → 67%
Q1 7:21
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+18
37.0%
CJ Carr pass complete to Eli Raridon for 18 yds to the ND 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:51
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
36.6%
Jadarian Price run for 3 yds to the ND 48Similar
Q1 6:15
2ND & 7
OWN 48
+22
36.8%
CJ Carr pass complete to Will Pauling for 22 yds to the ARK 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:33
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+20
36.5%
Jadarian Price run for 20 yds to the ARK 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+3
36.5%
Jeremiyah Love run for 3 yds to the ARK 7Similar
Q1 4:14
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
33.5%
CJ Carr pass complete to Jeremiyah Love for 7 yds for a TD (Noah Burnette KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 5TD
16 plays · 75 yds · 7:4635% → 41%
Q1 4:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
34.8%
Taylen Green pass complete to O'Mega Blake for 8 yds to the ARK 33Similar
Q1 3:40
2ND & 2
OWN 33
0
34.2%
Mike Washington Jr. run for no gain to the ARK 33Similar
Q1 3:00
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+21
33.7%
Mike Washington Jr. run for 21 yds to the ND 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:24
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+8
34.4%
Taylen Green pass complete to Andreas Paaske for 8 yds to the ND 38Similar
Q1 1:48
2ND & 2
OPP 38
-10
34.4%
Washington Jr., Mike rush for 14 yards to the NOTREDAME24, PENALTY ARK holding (Robinson II, Corey) 10 yards to the NOTREDAME48, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 1:38
2ND & 12
OPP 48
+11
34.0%
Taylen Green pass complete to Jalen Brown for 11 yds to the ND 37Similar
Q1 0:47
3RD & 1
OPP 37
+3
34.2%
Braylen Russell run for 3 yds to the ND 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:11
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+9
34.8%
Mike Washington Jr. run for 9 yds to the ND 25Similar
Q2 14:54
2ND & 1
OPP 25
0
34.9%
Taylen Green run for no gain to the ND 25Similar
Q2 14:16
3RD & 1
OPP 25
+3
34.1%
Mike Washington Jr. run for 3 yds to the ND 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:36
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+5
34.4%
Taylen Green pass complete to O'Mega Blake for 5 yds to the ND 17Similar
Q2 13:04
2ND & 5
OPP 17
+15
34.3%
Mike Washington Jr. run for 15 yds to the ND 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
34.2%
Mike Washington Jr. run for 1 yd to the ND 1Similar
Q2 11:56
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
34.1%
Mike Washington Jr. run for no gain to the ND 1Similar
Q2 11:19
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
41.1%
JacQawn McRoy run for 1 yd for a TD (Scott Starzyk KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 6TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:4661% → 70%
Q2 11:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
38.9%
CJ Carr pass complete to Jeremiyah Love for 5 yds to the ND 30Similar
Q2 10:37
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+6
38.5%
Jeremiyah Love run for 6 yds to the ND 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:09
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+25
38.4%
CJ Carr pass complete to Eli Raridon for 25 yds to the ARK 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:41
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+5
37.2%
Carr, CJ pass incomplete to Gilbert, Micah, PENALTY ARK offside (Rhodes Jr., Quincy) 5 yards to the ARK34, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:35
1ST & 5
OPP 34
+4
36.5%
Jadarian Price run for 4 yds to the ARK 30Similar
Q2 9:01
2ND & 1
OPP 30
+7
36.5%
Jadarian Price run for 7 yds to the ARK 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:26
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+23
29.6%
CJ Carr pass complete to Will Pauling for 23 yds for a TD (Noah Burnette KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:5130% → 28%
Q2 8:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
30.3%
Mike Washington Jr. run for 1 yd to the ARK 26Similar
Q2 7:47
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
29.6%
Taylen Green pass incomplete to O'Mega BlakeSimilar
Q2 7:40
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
28.8%
Taylen Green pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:29
4TH & 9
OWN 26
+3
28.4%
Devin Bale punt for 47 yds , Jordan Faison returns for 3 yds to the ND 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 8TD
5 plays · 70 yds · 1:1870% → 82%
Q2 7:22
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+12
29.9%
Jeremiyah Love run for 12 yds to the ND 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:44
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
28.9%
CJ Carr pass incomplete to Ty WashingtonSimilar
Q2 6:37
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+24
29.1%
CJ Carr pass complete to Jaden Greathouse for 24 yds to the ARK 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:16
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
28.7%
CJ Carr pass incomplete to Malachi FieldsSimilar
Q2 6:04
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+34
18.1%
CJ Carr pass complete to Jeremiyah Love for 34 yds for a TD (Noah Burnette KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 9FG
7 plays · 44 yds · 2:1022% → 25%
Q2 5:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
22.0%
Taylen Green pass incomplete to Jalen Brown, broken up by Christian GraySimilar
Q2 5:47
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+54
21.8%
Taylen Green run for 54 yds to the ND 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:11
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-10
24.3%
Taylen Green sacked by Boubacar Traore for a loss of 10 yards to the ND 31Similar
Q2 4:34
2ND & 20
OPP 31
0
22.9%
Taylen Green pass incomplete to Jalen BrownSimilar
Q2 4:29
3RD & 20
OPP 31
0
22.0%
Taylen Green run for no gain to the ND 31Similar
Q2 3:48
4TH & 20
OPP 31
+49
24.7%
Scott Starzyk 49 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 10TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 3:0878% → 91%
Q2 3:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
22.2%
CJ Carr pass complete to Jordan Faison for 5 yds to the ND 30Similar
Q2 3:10
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
21.8%
CJ Carr pass incomplete to Malachi FieldsSimilar
Q2 3:03
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+14
21.5%
CJ Carr run for 14 yds to the ND 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:33
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+24
20.5%
CJ Carr pass complete to Jordan Faison for 24 yds to the ARK 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:54
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+8
18.3%
Jadarian Price run for 8 yds to the ARK 24Similar
Q2 1:24
2ND & 2
OPP 24
0
18.0%
CJ Carr pass incomplete to Jordan FaisonSimilar
Q2 1:19
3RD & 2
OPP 24
0
18.3%
Jadarian Price run for no gain to the ARK 24Similar
Q2 1:12
4TH & 2
OPP 24
+8
18.9%
CJ Carr pass complete to Will Pauling for 8 yds to the ARK 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:07
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
17.4%
CJ Carr pass incomplete to Will PaulingSimilar
Q2 0:59
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+5
17.3%
Jeremiyah Love run for 5 yds to the ARK 11Similar
Q2 0:40
3RD & 5
OPP 11
+8
17.3%
CJ Carr pass complete to Jaden Greathouse for 8 yds to the ARK 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
8.7%
Jeremiyah Love run for 3 yds for a TD (Noah Burnette KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 11FUMBLE
2 plays · 20 yds · 0:0015% → 15%
Q2 0:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+20
15.1%
Taylen Green pass complete to Raylen Sharpe for 20 yds Raylen Sharpe fumbled, forced by Adon Shuler, recovered by ND DeVonta SmithSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 12TD
2 plays · 45 yds · 0:1091% → 96%
Q2 0:19
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+10
8.8%
CJ Carr pass complete to Jordan Faison for 10 yds to the ARK 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:09
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+35
4.2%
CJ Carr pass complete to Jadarian Price for 35 yds for a TD (Noah Burnette KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 13END OF HALF
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q2 0:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
3.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the ARK 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 14DOWNS
9 plays · 35 yds · 3:5995% → 96%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
5.3%
Jeremiyah Love run for 1 yd to the ND 26Similar
Q3 14:17
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
5.0%
CJ Carr pass incomplete to Eli Raridon, broken up by Xavian Sorey Jr.Similar
Q3 14:09
3RD & 9
OWN 26
-1
5.2%
CJ Carr pass complete to Jeremiyah Love for a loss of 1 yard to the ND 25Similar
Q3 13:30
4TH & 10
OWN 25
+40
5.3%
Jordan Faison pass complete to Malachi Fields for 40 yds to the ARK 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:56
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-1
4.2%
Jeremiyah Love run for a loss of 1 yard to the ARK 36Similar
Q3 12:15
2ND & 11
OPP 36
0
3.9%
Jeremiyah Love run for no gain to the ARK 36Similar
Q3 11:35
3RD & 11
OPP 36
+10
3.8%
CJ Carr pass complete to Jordan Faison for 10 yds to the ARK 26Similar
Q3 10:55
4TH & 1
OPP 26
-14
3.6%
CJ Carr sacked by Phillip Lee for a loss of 14 yards to the ARK 40 Notre Dame Penalty, Intentional Grounding (CJ Carr) to the ARK 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 15DOWNS
10 plays · 47 yds · 4:124% → 3%
Q3 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
3.6%
Mike Washington Jr. run for 3 yds to the ARK 43Similar
Q3 10:18
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+6
3.6%
Taylen Green pass complete to Mike Washington Jr. for 6 yds to the ARK 49Similar
Q3 9:42
3RD & 1
OWN 49
+23
3.6%
Taylen Green pass complete to Jaden Platt for 23 yds to the ND 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:10
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+9
3.9%
Taylen Green pass complete to Raylen Sharpe for 9 yds to the ND 19Similar
Q3 8:38
2ND & 1
OPP 19
0
3.5%
Mike Washington Jr. run for no gain to the ND 19Similar
Q3 7:59
3RD & 1
OPP 19
+5
3.3%
Braylen Russell run for 5 yds to the ND 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:23
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
3.4%
Taylen Green pass incomplete to Jaden Platt, broken up by Tae JohnsonSimilar
Q3 7:18
2ND & 10
OPP 14
+1
3.3%
Mike Washington Jr. run for 1 yd to the ND 13Similar
Q3 6:42
3RD & 9
OPP 13
0
3.0%
Taylen Green pass incomplete to Jalen Brown, broken up by Mark Zackery IVSimilar
Q3 6:38
4TH & 9
OPP 13
0
2.8%
Taylen Green pass incomplete to CJ BrownSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 16TD
12 plays · 87 yds · 5:3098% → 99%
Q3 6:31
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+11
2.5%
CJ Carr pass complete to Jordan Faison for 11 yds to the ND 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:54
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+1
2.2%
Jadarian Price run for 1 yd to the ND 25Similar
Q3 5:23
2ND & 9
OWN 25
+1
2.1%
Jadarian Price run for 1 yd to the ND 26Similar
Q3 4:46
3RD & 8
OWN 26
+15
2.6%
Carr, CJ pass incomplete to Pauling, Will, PENALTY ARK pass interference (Young, Jordan) 15 yards to the NOTREDAME41, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN NOTREDAME.Similar
Q3 4:38
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+15
2.3%
CJ Carr pass complete to Jordan Faison for 15 yds to the ARK 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:04
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+5
2.2%
Jadarian Price run for 5 yds to the ARK 39Similar
Q3 3:21
2ND & 5
OPP 39
-4
2.0%
Jadarian Price run for 6 yds to the ARK 33 Notre Dame Penalty, Illegal Block (Will Pauling) to the ARK 43Similar
Q3 2:59
2ND & 9
OPP 43
0
1.9%
CJ Carr pass incomplete to Malachi Fields, broken up by Kani WalkerSimilar
Q3 2:52
3RD & 9
OPP 43
+11
2.0%
CJ Carr pass complete to Malachi Fields for 11 yds to the ARK 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:13
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+2
1.8%
Jeremiyah Love run for 2 yds to the ARK 30Similar
Q3 1:39
2ND & 8
OPP 30
+14
1.0%
CJ Carr pass complete to Jordan Faison for 14 yds to the ARK 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:01
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+16
0.7%
Jadarian Price run for 16 yds for a TD (Noah Burnette KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 17DOWNS
15 plays · 32 yds · 4:541% → 0%
Q3 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
0.6%
Taylen Green pass complete to Raylen Sharpe for 2 yds to the ARK 27Similar
Q3 0:26
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-10
0.5%
Green, Taylen pass complete to Russell, Braylen for 3 yards to the ARK30, PENALTY ARK holding (Kitler, Caden) 10 yards to the ARK17, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 0:16
2ND & 18
OWN 17
0
0.5%
Taylen Green pass incomplete to O'Mega BlakeSimilar
Q3 0:05
3RD & 18
OWN 17
+16
0.5%
Taylen Green run for 16 yds to the ARK 33Similar
Q4 14:55
4TH & 2
OWN 33
+5
0.5%
Taylen Green pass complete to Raylen Sharpe for 5 yds to the ARK 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:27
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+13
0.5%
Taylen Green run for 13 yds to the ND 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:01
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+5
0.5%
Taylen Green pass complete to O'Mega Blake for 5 yds to the ND 44Similar
Q4 13:40
2ND & 5
OPP 44
+6
0.5%
Taylen Green pass complete to Raylen Sharpe for 6 yds to the ND 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:06
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-10
0.5%
Green, Taylen rush for 12 yards to the NOTREDAME26, PENALTY ARK holding (Robinson II, Corey) 10 yards to the NOTREDAME48, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:52
1ST & 20
OPP 48
+5
0.4%
Taylen Green run for 5 yds to the ND 43Similar
Q4 12:22
2ND & 15
OPP 43
-10
0.4%
Green, Taylen pass complete to Sharpe, Raylen for 4 yards to the NOTREDAME39, PENALTY ARK holding (Carmona, Fernando) 10 yards to the ARK47, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:13
2ND & 25
OWN 47
-4
0.3%
Taylen Green sacked by Jordan Botelho for a loss of 4 yards to the ARK 43Similar
Q4 11:30
3RD & 29
OWN 43
+21
0.3%
Taylen Green pass complete to Andy Jean for 21 yds to the ND 36Similar
Q4 11:01
4TH & 8
OPP 36
-7
0.3%
Taylen Green sacked by Jaylen Sneed for a loss of 7 yards to the ND 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 18TD
4 plays · 57 yds · 2:02100% → 100%
Q4 10:56
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
0.4%
Aneyas Williams run for 3 yds to the ND 46Similar
Q4 10:17
2ND & 7
OWN 46
0
0.4%
Kenny Minchey run for no gain to the ND 46Similar
Q4 9:29
3RD & 7
OWN 46
+37
0.3%
Kenny Minchey pass complete to Matt Jeffery for 37 yds to the ARK 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:54
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+17
0.3%
A. Williams run for 17 yds for a TD (Erik Schmidt KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 19INT
9 plays · 49 yds · 3:250% → 0%
Q4 8:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+23
0.2%
Taylen Green pass complete to Rohan Jones for 23 yds to the ARK 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:13
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+9
0.2%
Taylen Green pass complete to O'Mega Blake for 9 yds to the ND 43Similar
Q4 7:43
2ND & 1
OPP 43
0
0.2%
Mike Washington Jr. run for no gain to the ND 43Similar
Q4 7:03
3RD & 1
OPP 43
+3
0.2%
Mike Washington Jr. run for 3 yds to the ND 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:32
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+13
0.2%
Taylen Green pass complete to O'Mega Blake for 13 yds to the ND 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:59
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+1
0.2%
Mike Washington Jr. run for 1 yd to the ND 26Similar
Q4 5:25
2ND & 9
OPP 26
0
0.2%
Taylen Green pass incomplete to Raylen Sharpe, broken up by Cole MullinsSimilar
Q4 5:19
3RD & 9
OPP 26
0
0.2%
Taylen Green pass intercepted, touchback. Luke Talich return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 20END OF GAME
11 plays · 27 yds · 4:57100% → 100%
Q4 5:15
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
0.2%
Nolan James Jr. run for 1 yd to the ND 21Similar
Q4 4:29
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+24
0.2%
Gi'Bran Payne run for 24 yds to the ND 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:29
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-15
0.2%
Notre Dame Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (James Flanigan) to the ND 30Similar
Q4 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
0.2%
Nolan James Jr. run for 4 yds to the ND 34Similar
Q4 3:14
2ND & 6
OWN 34
+5
0.2%
Gi'Bran Payne run for 5 yds to the ND 39Similar
Q4 2:29
3RD & 1
OWN 39
+2
0.1%
Nolan James Jr. run for 2 yds to the ND 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-2
0.1%
Gi'Bran Payne run for a loss of 2 yards to the ND 39Similar
Q4 1:10
2ND & 12
OWN 39
-5
0.1%
Notre Dame Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the ND 34Similar
Q4 0:44
2ND & 17
OWN 34
+15
0.1%
Nolan James Jr. run for 15 yds to the ND 49Similar
Q4 0:18
3RD & 2
OWN 49
-2
0.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the ND 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 6:04
CJ Carr pass complete to Jeremiyah Love for 34 yds for a TD (Noah Burnette KICK)
-10.6
TD · Q2 0:35
Jeremiyah Love run for 3 yds for a TD (Noah Burnette KICK)
-8.6
TD · Q2 11:19
JacQawn McRoy run for 1 yd for a TD (Scott Starzyk KICK)
+7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com