View as
Win probability · TENN
modelTENN aheadUAB aheadconfidence bandkey playTENN scoreUAB score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 5:27 · Patrick Foley punt for 40 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UAB 45 , Boo Carter returns for 34 yds to the UAB 45
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factor
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 4:01: DeSean Bishop run for 3 yds for a TD — TENN win probability +0.3 pts (now 99%) (top driver: TENN has the ball).
- TD · Q2 10:44: Star Thomas run for 1 yd for a TD (Max Gilbert KICK) — TENN win probability +0.4 pts (now 99%) (top driver: TENN has the ball).
- TD · Q2 7:34: Jalen Kitna pass complete to Brandon Hawkins Jr. for 30 yds for a TD (Jonah Delange KICK) — UAB win probability +0.8 pts (now 1%) (top driver: UAB has the ball).
- TD · Q2 7:34: Timeout Tennessee, clock 07:34 — TENN win probability +0.5 pts (now 99%) (top driver: TENN has the ball).
- TD · Q2 2:50: Peyton Lewis run for 32 yds for a TD (Max Gilbert KICK) — TENN win probability +0.4 pts (now 100%) (top driver: TENN has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
TENN made the numbers' call on 4 of 4UAB made the numbers' call on 9 of 10
- Q1 11:30UAB 4th & 8 at UAB 27, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.7% before the snapGo for it1.7%−0.133% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.7%average punt
- Q1 8:32UAB 4th & 11 at UAB 45, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.8% before the snapGo for it1.7%−0.126% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.8%average punt
- Q1 5:27UAB 4th & 9 at UAB 39, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.9% before the snapGo for it1.9%−0.132% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.0%average punt
- Q2 14:09UAB 4th & 3 at UAB 27, down 21Close callPunted · 1.5% before the snapGo for it1.6%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.5%−<0.1average punt
- Q2 5:23TENN 4th & 1 at TENN 47, up 21Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call98.6%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt98.3%−0.3average punt
- Q2 1:46UAB 4th & 3 at UAB 32, down 28Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.6%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt0.6%−<0.1average punt
- Q3 13:23UAB 4th & 4 at UAB 31, down 35Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snapGo for it0.3%−0.148% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.3%average punt
- Q3 12:06UAB 4th & 6 at TENN 27, down 35Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.4% before the snapGo for it0.4%−<0.139% to convertField goalTheir call0.4%62% to makePunt0.1%−0.4average punt
- Q3 8:16UAB 4th & 1 at UAB 49, down 39Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.2%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt0.1%−0.1average punt
- Q3 5:10TENN 4th & 8 at TENN 47, up 39Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.8% before the snapGo for it99.8%−<0.134% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.9%average punt
- Q4 11:52TENN 4th & 14 at TENN 43, up 39Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.8%−0.118% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call100.0%average punt
- Q4 9:10UAB 4th & 9 at UAB 49, down 39Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.0%−<0.132% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 7:36TENN 4th & 5 at TENN 36, up 39Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.9%−<0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.9%average punt
- Q4 5:16UAB 4th & 2 at UAB 38, down 39Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.1%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt0.0%−<0.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TENN made the numbers' call on 8 of 8UAB made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
- Q1 12:56TENN Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.5%97% to makeGo for two98.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 11:05TENN Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.4%97% to makeGo for two98.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 4:01TENN Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.6%97% to makeGo for two98.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 10:44TENN Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.4%97% to makeGo for two99.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 7:34UAB Touchdown, down 22 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call1.4%97% to makeGo for two1.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 2:50TENN Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.8%97% to makeGo for two99.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:32TENN Touchdown, up 34 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.8%97% to makeGo for two99.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 9:53TENN Touchdown, up 38 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 2:37TENN Touchdown, up 45 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 1:24UAB Touchdown, down 40 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call0.2%97% to makeGo for two0.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 0:48UAB Touchdown, down 33 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call0.1%97% to makeGo for two0.1%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartTENNDrive 1TD9 plays · 75 yds · 1:5499% → 99%
Q1 14:12
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+31
98.9%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Braylon Staley for 31 yds to the UAB 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:34
1ST & 18
OPP 37
+12
98.8%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Braylon Staley for 12 yds to the UAB 25Similar
Q1 12:56
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+19
98.8%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Chris Brazzell II for 19 yds for a TD (Max Gilbert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 2Uncategorized5 plays · 2 yds · 1:191% → 1%
TENNDrive 3TD2 plays · 50 yds · 0:1599% → 99%
UABDrive 4PUNT6 plays · 20 yds · 2:191% → 1%
Q1 10:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+21
98.7%
Jalen Kitna pass complete to AJ Johnson for 21 yds to the UAB 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:15
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+4
98.7%
Jalen Kitna pass complete to Solomon Beebe for 4 yds to the UAB 42Similar
Q1 9:37
2ND & 14
OWN 42
+7
98.7%
Ryder Burton pass complete to Brandon Hawkins Jr. for 7 yds to the UAB 49Similar
Q1 8:32
4TH & 11
OWN 45
0
98.6%
Patrick Foley punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Boo Carter at the TENN 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 5INT8 plays · 26 yds · 2:0799% → 99%
Q1 7:44
3RD & 4
OWN 16
+7
98.7%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Chris Brazzell II for 7 yds to the TENN 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:42
3RD & 8
OWN 25
+11
98.6%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Miles Kitselman for 11 yds to the TENN 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:21
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
98.6%
Joey Aguilar pass intercepted Pierre Royster return for a loss of 5 yards to the UAB 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 6PUNT4 plays · 1 yds · 0:472% → 2%
Q1 5:27
4TH & 9
OWN 39
+34
98.5%
Patrick Foley punt for 40 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UAB 45 , Boo Carter returns for 34 yds to the UAB 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 7TD8 plays · 45 yds · 1:2599% → 99%
UABDrive 8PUNT9 plays · 19 yds · 4:321% → 1%
Q1 3:41
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+7
98.8%
Jalen Kitna pass complete to Isaiah Jacobs for 7 yds to the UAB 15Similar
Q1 2:25
3RD & 2
OWN 16
+4
98.8%
Jalen Kitna pass complete to Kaleb Brown for 4 yds to the UAB 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:34
1ST & 15
OWN 15
-5
98.8%
PENALTY UAB False Start (Moore,Logan) 5 yards from UAB15 to UAB10. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 1:09
1ST & 20
OWN 10
+4
98.8%
Jalen Kitna pass complete to Isaiah Jacobs for 4 yds to the UAB 14Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 16
OWN 14
+5
98.8%
Jalen Kitna pass complete to Brandon Hawkins Jr. for 5 yds to the UAB 19Similar
Q2 14:49
3RD & 11
OWN 19
+8
98.8%
Jalen Kitna pass complete to Jevon Jackson for 8 yds to the UAB 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 9TD11 plays · 60 yds · 3:1799% → 99%
UABDrive 10TD14 plays · 75 yds · 3:031% → 1%
Q2 10:03
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+9
99.3%
Jalen Kitna pass complete to Xavier Daisy for 9 yds to the UAB 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:45
2ND & 10
OWN 38
-5
99.3%
PENALTY UAB False Start (Morgan,JonDarius) 5 yards from UAB38 to UAB33. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:28
3RD & 15
OWN 33
+22
99.4%
Jalen Kitna pass complete to Iverson Hooks for 22 yds to the TENN 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:57
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+8
99.3%
Jalen Kitna pass complete to J.C. Sivley for 8 yds to the TENN 37Similar
Q2 8:14
2ND & 2
OPP 37
+7
99.2%
Jalen Kitna pass complete to Evan McCray for 7 yds to the TENN 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:34
3RD & 10
OPP 30
+30
98.6%
Jalen Kitna pass complete to Brandon Hawkins Jr. for 30 yds for a TD (Jonah Delange KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 11TD17 plays · 75 yds · 4:3999% → 100%
Q2 7:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
99.1%
(07:33) No Huddle-Shotgun Aguilar,Joey pass incomplete short middle to Staley,Braylon thrown to TENN28 PENALTY TENN Illegal Shift 5 yards from TENN25 to TENN20. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:21
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+14
99.2%
(07:28) Shotgun Aguilar,Joey pass complete short right to Staley,Braylon caught at TENN20, for 14 yards to the TENN34 (Brown,AJ; Gulley,Delvon) PENALTY TENN Holding (Perry,Jesse) TENN Ineligible Downfield on Pass declined UAB Illegal Block in Back declined 10 yards from TENN20 to TENN10. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:03
1ST & 25
OWN 10
+7
99.2%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Braylon Staley for 7 yds to the TENN 17Similar
Q2 6:24
3RD & 12
OWN 23
0
99.1%
(06:29) No Huddle-Shotgun Aguilar,Joey pass incomplete deep right to Brazzell II,Chris thrown to UAB25 PENALTY UAB Pass Interference (Gulley,Delvon) UAB Offside declined 15 yards from TENN23 to TENN38, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:52
3RD & 10
OWN 38
+9
99.2%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Travis Smith Jr. for 9 yds to the TENN 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 12DOWNS7 plays · 9 yds · 0:520% → 0%
Q2 2:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
99.6%
Jalen Kitna pass complete to Brandon Hawkins Jr. for a loss of 1 yard to the UAB 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 13TD5 plays · 33 yds · 1:00100% → 100%
Q2 0:53
2ND & 3
OPP 26
-3
99.7%
Joey Aguilar run for a loss of 3 yards to the UAB 29 Joey Aguilar fumbled, recovered by UAB Joey AguilarSimilar
Q2 0:53
3RD & 6
OPP 29
+12
99.7%
UAB Penalty, Face Mask (12 yards) (12 Yards) to the UAB 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:35
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+10
99.7%
(00:36) No Huddle-Shotgun Aguilar,Joey pass incomplete short left to Kitselman,Miles thrown to UAB00 PENALTY UAB Pass Interference (Fisher,Perry) 10 yards from UAB12 to UAB02, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 14END OF HALF5 plays · 10 yds · 0:180% → 0%
UABDrive 15PUNT5 plays · 6 yds · 1:330% → 0%
UABDrive 16FG5 plays · 4 yds · 1:110% → 1%
Q3 12:44
2ND & 7
OPP 28
+1
99.7%
Jalen Kitna pass complete to Jevon Jackson for 1 yd to the TENN 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 17TD9 plays · 54 yds · 1:53100% → 100%
UABDrive 18INT8 plays · 25 yds · 2:590% → 0%
Q3 9:41
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-1
99.8%
Jalen Kitna pass complete to Kaleb Brown for a loss of 1 yard to the UAB 39Similar
Q3 8:58
3RD & 11
OWN 39
+10
99.8%
Jalen Kitna pass complete to Evan McCray for 10 yds to the UAB 49Similar
Q3 7:34
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+1
99.9%
Jalen Kitna pass complete to Jevon Jackson for 1 yd to the TENN 48Similar
Q3 7:04
2ND & 9
OPP 48
+13
99.9%
Jalen Kitna pass complete to Solomon Beebe for 13 yds to the TENN 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:42
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-1
99.9%
Jalen Kitna pass intercepted Andre Turrentine return for 1 yd to the TENN 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 19PUNT5 plays · 14 yds · 1:21100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 20FUMBLE RETURN TD6 plays · 14 yds · 2:230% → 0%
Q3 4:16
2ND & 2
OWN 17
+6
99.9%
Jalen Kitna pass complete to Jevon Jackson for 6 yds to the UAB 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:59
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-6
99.9%
Jalen Kitna sacked by Boo Carter for a loss of 6 yards to the UAB 17 Jalen Kitna fumbled, recovered by UAB Logan Moore , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 21TD4 plays · 75 yds · 1:070% → 0%
TENNDrive 22PUNT12 plays · 18 yds · 4:19100% → 100%
Q3 1:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
99.9%
Jake Merklinger pass complete to Jack Van Dorselaer for 5 yds to the TENN 30Similar
Q4 13:48
4TH & 3
OWN 42
+5
99.9%
PENALTY UAB Offside (Warren,Denver) 5 yards from TENN42 to TENN47, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 11:52
4TH & 14
OWN 43
0
99.9%
Jackson Ross punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Iverson Hooks at the UAB 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 23PUNT7 plays · 27 yds · 2:320% → 0%
Q4 11:42
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+26
100.0%
Jalen Kitna pass complete to Solomon Beebe for 26 yds to the UAB 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:01
2ND & 10
OWN 48
-5
100.0%
(11:12) Shotgun Burton,Ryder rush left for 5 yards gain to the TENN47 (Carter,Boo; Perlotte,Jadon) PENALTY UAB Illegal Formation (Brown,Kaleb) 5 yards from UAB48 to UAB43. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 10:26
2ND & 15
OWN 43
0
100.0%
Jalen Kitna pass complete to Iverson Hooks for no gain to the UAB 43Similar
Q4 9:33
3RD & 15
OWN 43
+6
100.0%
Jalen Kitna pass complete to Iverson Hooks for 6 yds to the UAB 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 24PUNT7 plays · 16 yds · 1:17100% → 100%
Q4 8:53
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+11
100.0%
Jake Merklinger pass complete to Joakim Dodson for 11 yds to the TENN 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:09
3RD & 10
OWN 31
+5
100.0%
PENALTY UAB Offside (Peterson,JaSir) 5 yards from TENN31 to TENN36. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 7:36
4TH & 5
OWN 36
0
100.0%
Jackson Ross punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Iverson Hooks at the UAB 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 25TD17 plays · 82 yds · 6:330% → 0%
Q4 7:21
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+12
100.0%
Jalen Kitna pass complete to Brandon Hawkins Jr. for 12 yds to the UAB 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:16
4TH & 2
OWN 38
+4
100.0%
Jalen Kitna pass complete to Isaiah Jacobs for 4 yds to the UAB 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:45
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
100.0%
Jalen Kitna pass complete to Solomon Beebe for 3 yds to the UAB 45Similar
Q4 4:00
2ND & 7
OWN 45
+7
100.0%
Jalen Kitna pass complete to Iverson Hooks for 7 yds to the TENN 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:30
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+5
100.0%
Jalen Kitna pass complete to Isaiah Jacobs for 5 yds to the TENN 43Similar
Q4 3:06
2ND & 5
OPP 43
+4
100.0%
Jalen Kitna pass complete to Isaiah Jacobs for 4 yds to the TENN 39Similar
Q4 2:29
3RD & 1
OPP 39
+10
100.0%
Jalen Kitna pass complete to Brandon Hawkins Jr. for 10 yds to the TENN 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+3
100.0%
Jalen Kitna pass complete to Iverson Hooks for 3 yds to the TENN 26Similar
Q4 1:15
3RD & 1
OPP 20
+19
100.0%
Jalen Kitna pass complete to Xavier Daisy for 19 yds to the TENN 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 26END OF GAME5 plays · 56 yds · 0:39100% → 100%
Q4 0:19
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+41
100.0%
Jake Merklinger pass complete to Braylon Harmon for 41 yds to the UAB 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 7:34
Jalen Kitna pass complete to Brandon Hawkins Jr. for 30 yds for a TD (Jonah Delange KICK)
-0.8
TD · Q2 7:34
Timeout Tennessee, clock 07:34
+0.5
TD · Q2 10:44
Star Thomas run for 1 yd for a TD (Max Gilbert KICK)
+0.4