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AUB

Auburn 17 at Oklahoma 24

OU
2025 · Week 4 · Sep 20, 2025 · Memorial Stadium (Norman, OK)
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Win probability · OU
modelOU aheadAUB aheadconfidence bandkey playOU scoreAUB score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGTDTDFGFGTDTDSAFETYEnd of GameFG+8.3OU 81.9%Tate Sandell 28 yd FG GOODAWAY 10 - HOME 16 · Q4 14:56
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 14:56 · Tate Sandell 28 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorScore differentialBlowout margin
+27.0+13.50−13.5−27.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 143Pregame prior+5.5Home team on offense+12.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+2.0Garbage-time factor+4.8Score differential+1.8Blowout margin−1.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 10:45: John Mateer pass complete to Isaiah Sategna III for 24 yds for a TD (Tate Sandell KICK) — OU win probability +4.7 pts (now 75%) (top driver: OU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 1:08: Jackson Arnold pass complete to Cam Coleman for 2 yds for a TD (Alex McPherson KICK) — AUB win probability +11.7 pts (now 44%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
  3. FG · Q4 14:56: Tate Sandell 28 yd FG GOOD — OU win probability +8.3 pts (now 82%) (top driver: OU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 7:08: Malcolm Simmons run for 4 yds for a TD (Alex McPherson KICK) — AUB win probability +42.6 pts (now 61%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 4:54: John Mateer run for 9 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed) — OU win probability +30.6 pts (now 91%) (top driver: OU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
OU made the numbers' call on 8 of 9AUB made the numbers' call on 8 of 9
  1. Q1 13:01AUB 4th & 18 at AUB 16, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.8%−0.2
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:37OU 4th & 1 at AUB 48, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 67.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    67.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    67.6%−0.2
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:32OU 4th & 11 at AUB 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 67.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.0%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    67.1%
    54% to make
    Punt
    67.0%−0.2
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:56AUB 4th & 5 at OU 6, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 32.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.4%−<0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    32.4%
    91% to make
    Punt
    30.3%−2.2
    average punt
  5. Q1 1:58OU 4th & 6 at OU 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.6%−0.2
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.8%
    average punt
  6. Q1 0:31AUB 4th & 11 at AUB 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.3%−0.8
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.1%
    average punt
  7. Q2 14:45OU 4th & 7 at OU 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.1%−0.2
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.3%
    average punt
  8. Q2 8:53AUB 4th & 2 at AUB 33, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.3%−0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.4%
    average punt
  9. Q2 5:25AUB 4th & 12 at AUB 48, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.5%−0.8
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.3%
    average punt
  10. Q2 4:25OU 4th & 10 at OU 14, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.6%−1.6
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.2%
    average punt
  11. Q3 14:19OU 4th & 10 at OU 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.5%−2.2
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.7%
    average punt
  12. Q3 12:57AUB 4th & 13 at AUB 17, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.6%−2.8
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.5%
    average punt
  13. Q3 8:36OU 4th & 5 at AUB 14, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 63.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.7%−0.6
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    63.3%
    84% to make
    Punt
    53.7%−9.6
    average punt
  14. Q3 6:22AUB 4th & 7 at AUB 28, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.2%−1.4
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.6%
    average punt
  15. Q3 4:51OU 4th & 6 at OU 28, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.8%−1.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.9%
    average punt
  16. Q3 3:05AUB 4th & 9 at OU 32, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 32.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.4%−0.5
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    32.0%
    51% to make
    Punt
    30.3%−1.7
    average punt
  17. Q4 14:56OU 4th & 2 at AUB 10, up 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.9 ptsKicked a field goal · 69.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.8%
    55% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    66.9%−1.9
    88% to make
    Punt
    54.3%−14.4
    average punt
  18. Q4 9:16AUB 4th & 11 at OU 38, down 6
    Close callWent for it · 23.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    21.4%−0.2
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    21.6%
    38% to make
    Punt
    20.5%−1.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
OU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2AUB made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q2 10:45OU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 1:08AUB Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    34.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    34.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 7:08AUB Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    48.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    45.3%−2.6
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 4:54OU Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    79.5%−0.3
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    79.8%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
AUBDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · -8 yds · 1:3928% → 29%
Q1 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+1
71.6%
Jackson Arnold run for 1 yd to the AUB 25Similar
Q1 14:00
2ND & 9
OWN 25
+2
71.5%
Jeremiah Cobb run for 2 yds to the AUB 27Similar
Q1 13:38
3RD & 7
OWN 27
-11
71.5%
Jackson Arnold sacked by Taylor Wein for a loss of 11 yards to the AUB 16Similar
Q1 13:01
4TH & 18
OWN 16
+4
71.5%
Hudson Kaak punt for 48 yds , Isaiah Sategna III returns for 4 yds to the OU 20 Oklahoma Penalty, Illegal Block (Devon Jordan) to the OU 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 2FG
14 plays · 39 yds · 4:1971% → 71%
Q1 12:51
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
71.3%
Tory Blaylock run for 3 yds to the OU 33Similar
Q1 12:30
2ND & 7
OWN 33
+10
71.3%
John Mateer pass complete to Deion Burks for 10 yds to the OU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:09
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+2
71.4%
Tory Blaylock run for 2 yds to the OU 45Similar
Q1 11:27
2ND & 8
OWN 45
+6
71.3%
John Mateer run for 6 yds to the AUB 49Similar
Q1 11:11
3RD & 2
OPP 49
+1
71.3%
Tory Blaylock run for 1 yd to the AUB 48Similar
Q1 10:37
4TH & 1
OPP 48
+8
71.1%
John Mateer run for 8 yds to the AUB 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:18
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
71.4%
John Mateer pass incomplete to Deion BurksSimilar
Q1 10:03
2ND & 10
OPP 40
0
71.3%
John Mateer pass incomplete to Isaiah Sategna IIISimilar
Q1 9:54
3RD & 10
OPP 40
+10
71.1%
Auburn Penalty, Defensive Holding (Rayshawn Pleasant) to the AUB 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:54
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-5
71.4%
Oklahoma Penalty, False Start (Heath Ozaeta) to the AUB 35Similar
Q1 9:48
1ST & 15
OPP 35
+1
71.2%
John Mateer run for 1 yd to the AUB 34Similar
Q1 9:20
2ND & 14
OPP 34
0
71.1%
John Mateer pass incomplete to Isaiah Sategna IIISimilar
Q1 9:03
3RD & 14
OPP 34
+3
70.8%
John Mateer pass complete to Ivan Carreon for 3 yds to the AUB 31Similar
Q1 8:32
4TH & 11
OPP 31
+49
70.9%
Tate Sandell 49 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 3FG
12 plays · 87 yds · 4:1129% → 31%
Q1 8:07
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+46
71.2%
Jackson Arnold pass complete to Cam Coleman for 46 yds to the OU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:47
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
70.5%
Jackson Arnold pass incomplete to Eric Singleton Jr.Similar
Q1 7:43
2ND & 10
OPP 47
0
70.6%
Jackson Arnold pass incomplete to Eric Singleton Jr.Similar
Q1 7:34
3RD & 10
OPP 47
+11
70.8%
Jackson Arnold run for 11 yds to the OU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:53
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
70.4%
Jeremiah Cobb run for no gain to the OU 36Similar
Q1 6:16
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+15
70.3%
Jackson Arnold pass complete to Malcolm Simmons for 15 yds to the OU 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:10
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+10
69.9%
Oklahoma Penalty, Face Mask (10 yards) (Gentry Williams) to the OU 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:50
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+7
69.8%
Jeremiah Cobb run for 7 yds to the OU 4Similar
Q1 5:14
2ND & 3
OPP 4
-2
69.7%
Jackson Arnold run for a loss of 2 yards to the OU 6Similar
Q1 4:29
3RD & 5
OPP 6
0
69.9%
Jackson Arnold pass complete to Eric Singleton Jr. for no gain to the OU 6Similar
Q1 3:56
4TH & 5
OPP 6
+24
68.9%
Alex McPherson 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:4370% → 68%
Q1 3:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
69.5%
John Mateer pass complete to Jaren Kanak for 8 yds to the OU 33Similar
Q1 3:13
2ND & 2
OWN 33
-4
70.0%
Isaiah Sategna III run for a loss of 4 yards to the OU 29Similar
Q1 2:39
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
69.0%
John Mateer run for no gain to the OU 29Similar
Q1 1:58
4TH & 6
OWN 29
+1
68.4%
Grayson Miller punt for 47 yds , Malcolm Simmons returns for 1 yd to the AUB 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 1:2232% → 31%
Q1 1:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
68.5%
Damari Alston run for 1 yd to the AUB 26Similar
Q1 1:11
2ND & 9
OWN 26
-2
68.4%
Jackson Arnold sacked by Owen Heinecke for a loss of 2 yards to the AUB 24Similar
Q1 0:40
3RD & 11
OWN 24
0
68.8%
Jackson Arnold pass incomplete to Cam ColemanSimilar
Q1 0:31
4TH & 11
OWN 24
0
69.2%
Hudson Kaak punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Isaiah Sategna III at the OU 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:4069% → 68%
Q1 0:25
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+6
69.1%
Tory Blaylock run for 6 yds to the OU 33Similar
Q1 0:01
2ND & 4
OWN 33
+2
69.6%
John Mateer pass complete to Deion Burks for 2 yds to the OU 35Similar
Q2 14:56
3RD & 2
OWN 35
0
69.1%
John Mateer pass incomplete to Carson KentSimilar
Q2 14:56
4TH & 2
OWN 35
-5
68.4%
Oklahoma Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the OU 30Similar
Q2 14:45
4TH & 7
OWN 30
+66
67.9%
Grayson Miller punt for 66 yds , Malcolm Simmons returns for a loss of 1 yard to the AUB 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 7DOWNS
11 plays · 9 yds · 2:5532% → 32%
Q2 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+40
68.2%
Jackson Arnold pass complete to Cam Coleman for 40 yds to the AUB 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:48
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
66.6%
Jackson Arnold pass incomplete to Horatio FieldsSimilar
Q2 13:48
2ND & 10
OWN 43
-5
67.0%
Auburn Penalty, False Start (Mason Murphy) to the AUB 38Similar
Q2 13:48
2ND & 15
OWN 38
-5
67.5%
Auburn Penalty, False Start (Dillon Wade) to the AUB 33Similar
Q2 13:40
2ND & 20
OWN 33
+14
67.8%
Jackson Arnold sacked by Marvin Jones Jr. for a loss of 1 yard to the AUB 32 for a 1ST down Oklahoma Penalty, Horse Collar Tackle (Marvin Jones Jr.) to the AUB 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:17
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-10
66.3%
Auburn Penalty, Offensive Holding (Connor Lew) to the AUB 37Similar
Q2 12:49
1ST & 20
OWN 37
-8
67.4%
Jackson Arnold sacked by David Stone for a loss of 8 yards to the AUB 29Similar
Q2 12:13
2ND & 28
OWN 29
0
67.6%
Jackson Arnold pass incomplete to Preston HowardSimilar
Q2 12:13
3RD & 28
OWN 29
-5
68.1%
Auburn Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the AUB 24Similar
Q2 12:09
3RD & 33
OWN 24
0
68.1%
Damari Alston run for no gain to the AUB 24Similar
Q2 11:35
4TH & 33
OWN 24
-12
68.5%
Hudson Kaak run for a loss of 12 yards to the AUB 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 8TD
3 plays · 12 yds · 0:4470% → 75%
Q2 11:29
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-10
70.4%
Oklahoma Penalty, Offensive Holding (Heath Ozaeta) to the AUB 22Similar
Q2 11:06
1ST & 20
OPP 22
-2
70.2%
Tory Blaylock run for a loss of 2 yards to the AUB 24Similar
Q2 10:45
2ND & 22
OPP 24
+24
74.9%
John Mateer pass complete to Isaiah Sategna III for 24 yds for a TD (Tate Sandell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:4627% → 26%
Q2 10:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
73.5%
Jackson Arnold sacked by Jayden Jackson for a loss of 2 yards to the AUB 23Similar
Q2 10:11
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+3
73.7%
Jackson Arnold run for 3 yds to the AUB 26Similar
Q2 9:27
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+7
74.4%
Jackson Arnold pass complete to Eric Singleton Jr. for 7 yds to the AUB 33Similar
Q2 8:53
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
74.2%
Hudson Kaak punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Isaiah Sategna III at the OU 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 10FUMBLE
5 plays · 47 yds · 1:0874% → 77%
Q2 8:48
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
74.4%
John Mateer pass incomplete to Deion BurksSimilar
Q2 8:37
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+3
74.3%
Tory Blaylock run for 3 yds to the OU 22Similar
Q2 8:12
3RD & 7
OWN 22
+29
74.3%
John Mateer pass complete to Isaiah Sategna III for 29 yds to the AUB 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:46
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+19
76.5%
John Mateer pass complete to Keontez Lewis for 19 yds to the AUB 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:40
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-4
76.7%
John Mateer run for a loss of 4 yards to the AUB 34 John Mateer fumbled, recovered by AUB Keyron CrawfordSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 11PUNT
6 plays · 14 yds · 2:1026% → 25%
Q2 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
73.9%
Jackson Arnold pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:25
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+16
74.2%
Jackson Arnold pass complete to Eric Singleton Jr. for 16 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:06
1ST & 10
50
+2
72.5%
Jackson Arnold pass complete to Eric Singleton Jr. for 2 yds to the OU 48Similar
Q2 6:33
2ND & 8
OPP 48
-2
72.6%
Jackson Arnold sacked by Jayden Jackson for a loss of 2 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 6:05
3RD & 10
50
-2
73.9%
Jackson Arnold sacked by Kip Lewis and Jayden Jackson for a loss of 2 yards to the AUB 48Similar
Q2 5:25
4TH & 12
OWN 48
0
75.4%
Hudson Kaak punt for 38 yds , Isaiah Sategna III returns for no gain to the OU 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:5575% → 73%
Q2 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 14
0
75.4%
Jovantae Barnes run for no gain to the OU 14Similar
Q2 4:41
2ND & 10
OWN 14
0
75.3%
John Mateer pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:41
3RD & 10
OWN 14
0
74.0%
John Mateer pass incomplete to Jaren KanakSimilar
Q2 4:25
4TH & 10
OWN 14
+6
73.4%
Grayson Miller punt for 52 yds , Malcolm Simmons returns for 6 yds to the AUB 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 13TD
12 plays · 60 yds · 3:1127% → 44%
Q2 4:19
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-1
73.2%
Jackson Arnold pass complete to Eric Singleton Jr. for a loss of 1 yard to the AUB 39Similar
Q2 3:50
2ND & 11
OWN 39
+18
73.8%
Jackson Arnold pass complete to Eric Singleton Jr. for 18 yds to the OU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:21
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-5
72.1%
Auburn Penalty, False Start (Jeremiah Wright) to the OU 48Similar
Q2 2:59
1ST & 15
OPP 48
+15
73.2%
Damari Alston run for 15 yds to the OU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:12
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+7
70.7%
Jackson Arnold pass complete to Damari Alston for 7 yds to the OU 26Similar
Q2 1:53
2ND & 3
OPP 26
+10
69.7%
Jackson Arnold pass complete to Eric Singleton Jr. for 10 yds to the OU 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:22
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
69.6%
Damari Alston run for no gain to the OU 16Similar
Q2 1:18
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+14
69.5%
Oklahoma Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Courtland Guillory) to the OU 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
69.4%
Damari Alston run for no gain to the OU 2Similar
Q2 1:08
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
56.5%
Jackson Arnold pass complete to Cam Coleman for 2 yds for a TD (Alex McPherson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 14END OF HALF
6 plays · -7 yds · 0:4864% → 63%
Q2 0:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
63.8%
John Mateer pass complete to Isaiah Sategna III for 9 yds to the OU 34Similar
Q2 0:47
2ND & 1
OWN 34
0
65.4%
John Mateer pass incomplete to Keontez LewisSimilar
Q2 0:42
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+4
63.9%
John Mateer run for 4 yds to the OU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-5
65.0%
John Mateer sacked by Keldric Faulk for a loss of 5 yards to the OU 33Similar
Q2 0:06
2ND & 15
OWN 33
-15
63.1%
Oklahoma Penalty, Offensive Pass Interference (Isaiah Sategna III) to the OU 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:3666% → 63%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
65.8%
Tory Blaylock run for no gain to the OU 25Similar
Q3 14:36
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
65.5%
John Mateer pass incomplete to Jaren KanakSimilar
Q3 14:30
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
64.2%
John Mateer pass incomplete to Tory BlaylockSimilar
Q3 14:19
4TH & 10
OWN 25
+3
63.3%
Grayson Miller punt for 58 yds , Malcolm Simmons returns for 3 yds to the AUB 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 1:1838% → 36%
Q3 14:15
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
62.1%
Jackson Arnold pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:08
2ND & 10
OWN 20
-8
62.4%
Jackson Arnold sacked by R Mason Thomas for a loss of 8 yards to the AUB 12Similar
Q3 13:30
3RD & 18
OWN 12
+5
63.5%
Jeremiah Cobb run for 5 yds to the AUB 17Similar
Q3 12:57
4TH & 13
OWN 17
0
64.4%
Hudson Kaak punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Isaiah Sategna III at the OU 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 17FG
11 plays · 46 yds · 4:1567% → 71%
Q3 12:51
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
67.1%
John Mateer pass incomplete to Deion BurksSimilar
Q3 12:45
2ND & 10
OWN 40
-1
66.2%
Tory Blaylock run for a loss of 1 yard to the OU 39Similar
Q3 11:58
3RD & 11
OWN 39
+16
64.1%
John Mateer pass complete to Jaren Kanak for 16 yds to the AUB 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:42
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+6
68.0%
John Mateer run for 6 yds to the AUB 39Similar
Q3 11:06
2ND & 4
OPP 39
+5
68.0%
John Mateer pass complete to Isaiah Sategna III for 5 yds to the AUB 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:47
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+8
68.7%
John Mateer pass complete to Tory Blaylock for 8 yds to the AUB 26Similar
Q3 10:06
2ND & 2
OPP 26
+7
68.8%
John Mateer pass complete to Isaiah Sategna III for 7 yds to the AUB 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:50
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+2
68.7%
John Mateer pass complete to Tory Blaylock for 2 yds to the AUB 17Similar
Q3 9:16
2ND & 8
OPP 17
0
68.7%
John Mateer pass incomplete to Jovantae BarnesSimilar
Q3 9:07
3RD & 8
OPP 17
+3
67.4%
John Mateer pass complete to Deion Burks for 3 yds to the AUB 14Similar
Q3 8:36
4TH & 5
OPP 14
+32
70.6%
Tate Sandell 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 18PUNT
6 plays · 3 yds · 1:5932% → 30%
Q3 8:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
68.2%
Jackson Arnold pass complete to Eric Singleton Jr. for 5 yds to the AUB 30Similar
Q3 8:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+3
67.2%
Jackson Arnold run for 3 yds to the AUB 33Similar
Q3 7:16
3RD & 2
OWN 33
0
67.4%
Jackson Arnold pass complete to Malcolm Simmons for no gain to the AUB 33Similar
Q3 6:39
4TH & 2
OWN 33
-5
68.9%
Auburn Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the AUB 28Similar
Q3 6:22
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
70.2%
Hudson Kaak punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Isaiah Sategna III at the OU 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:2470% → 67%
Q3 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+4
69.5%
Tory Blaylock run for 4 yds to the OU 28Similar
Q3 5:56
2ND & 6
OWN 28
-4
69.7%
Tory Blaylock run for a loss of 4 yards to the OU 24Similar
Q3 5:13
3RD & 10
OWN 24
+4
67.8%
John Mateer pass complete to Deion Burks for 4 yds to the OU 28Similar
Q3 4:51
4TH & 6
OWN 28
0
66.6%
Grayson Miller punt for 49 yds, downed at the AUB 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 20MISSED FG
6 plays · 45 yds · 1:3432% → 31%
Q3 4:39
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+44
67.7%
Jeremiah Cobb run for 44 yds to the OU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:53
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
63.1%
Jackson Arnold pass incomplete to Cam ColemanSimilar
Q3 3:48
2ND & 10
OPP 33
0
63.2%
Jackson Arnold pass incomplete to Horatio FieldsSimilar
Q3 3:48
3RD & 10
OPP 33
-5
64.9%
Auburn Penalty, False Start (Xavier Chaplin) to the OU 38Similar
Q3 3:42
3RD & 15
OPP 38
+6
67.6%
Jackson Arnold pass complete to Malcolm Simmons for 6 yds to the OU 32Similar
Q3 3:05
4TH & 9
OPP 32
+50
68.8%
Connor Gibbs 50 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 21FG
9 plays · 58 yds · 2:5369% → 82%
Q3 2:49
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+12
69.4%
John Mateer pass complete to Deion Burks for 12 yds to the OU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:26
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+5
72.7%
John Mateer pass complete to Isaiah Sategna III for 5 yds to the OU 49Similar
Q3 2:03
2ND & 5
OWN 49
+10
73.1%
John Mateer pass complete to Isaiah Sategna III for 10 yds to the AUB 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:36
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+23
73.7%
John Mateer pass complete to Jaren Kanak for 23 yds to the AUB 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:15
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-3
75.1%
Deion Burks run for a loss of 3 yards to the AUB 21Similar
Q3 0:34
2ND & 13
OPP 21
+10
74.6%
John Mateer pass complete to Keontez Lewis for 10 yds to the AUB 11Similar
Q3 0:20
3RD & 3
OPP 11
+1
73.6%
Tory Blaylock run for 1 yd to the AUB 10Similar
Q4 14:56
4TH & 2
OPP 10
+28
81.9%
Tate Sandell 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 22TD
18 plays · 75 yds · 7:3722% → 61%
Q4 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
77.7%
Jackson Arnold pass complete to Damari Alston for 12 yds to the AUB 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:10
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
76.8%
Damari Alston run for 4 yds to the AUB 41Similar
Q4 13:32
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+3
75.4%
Jackson Arnold run for 3 yds to the AUB 44Similar
Q4 12:49
3RD & 3
OWN 44
+5
75.4%
Jackson Arnold pass complete to Damari Alston for 5 yds to the AUB 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:02
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+9
76.2%
Jackson Arnold pass complete to Malcolm Simmons for 9 yds to the OU 42Similar
Q4 11:36
2ND & 1
OPP 42
+5
75.5%
Damari Alston run for 5 yds to the OU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:51
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-4
75.9%
Jackson Arnold run for a loss of 4 yards to the OU 41Similar
Q4 10:05
2ND & 14
OPP 41
+3
80.0%
Jackson Arnold pass complete to Eric Singleton Jr. for 3 yds to the OU 38Similar
Q4 9:24
3RD & 11
OPP 38
0
79.7%
Eric Singleton Jr. pass incomplete to Cam ColemanSimilar
Q4 9:16
4TH & 11
OPP 38
+15
82.4%
Jackson Arnold run for 15 yds to the OU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:31
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
77.3%
Jackson Arnold pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:25
2ND & 10
OPP 23
0
77.5%
Jackson Arnold pass incomplete to Malcolm SimmonsSimilar
Q4 8:12
3RD & 10
OPP 23
+9
79.4%
Jackson Arnold pass complete to Horatio Fields for 9 yds to the OU 14Similar
Q4 7:36
4TH & 1
OPP 14
-5
80.6%
Auburn Penalty, False Start (Xavier Chaplin) to the OU 19Similar
Q4 7:12
4TH & 6
OPP 19
+15
81.4%
Oklahoma Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Courtland Guillory) to the OU 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
38.9%
Malcolm Simmons run for 4 yds for a TD (Alex McPherson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 23TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:0455% → 91%
Q4 6:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
54.7%
John Mateer pass complete to Deion Burks for 9 yds to the OU 34Similar
Q4 6:42
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+4
58.7%
John Mateer run for 4 yds to the OU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+7
56.5%
John Mateer pass complete to Isaiah Sategna III for 7 yds to the OU 45Similar
Q4 5:48
2ND & 3
OWN 45
+15
59.2%
John Mateer pass complete to Jaren Kanak for 15 yds to the AUB 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:12
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+31
60.2%
John Mateer pass complete to Isaiah Sategna III for 31 yds to the AUB 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
90.8%
John Mateer run for 9 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 24SF
11 plays · -8 yds · 3:3214% → 7%
Q4 4:38
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+3
86.4%
Jeremiah Cobb run for 3 yds to the AUB 11Similar
Q4 4:03
2ND & 7
OWN 11
+3
86.1%
Jackson Arnold run for 3 yds to the AUB 14Similar
Q4 3:36
3RD & 4
OWN 14
+9
87.7%
Jackson Arnold pass complete to Horatio Fields for 9 yds to the AUB 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:52
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
86.9%
Jackson Arnold run for no gain to the AUB 23Similar
Q4 2:30
2ND & 10
OWN 23
-10
87.3%
Auburn Penalty, Offensive Holding (Connor Lew) to the AUB 13Similar
Q4 2:17
2ND & 20
OWN 13
-5
87.8%
Auburn Penalty, False Start (Xavier Chaplin) to the AUB 8Similar
Q4 1:52
2ND & 25
OWN 8
0
88.5%
Jackson Arnold run for no gain to the AUB 8Similar
Q4 1:18
3RD & 25
OWN 8
-4
90.1%
Jackson Arnold sacked by Gracen Halton for a loss of 4 yards to the AUB 4Similar
Q4 1:06
4TH & 29
OWN 4
-4
93.5%
Jackson Arnold sacked by R Mason Thomas for a loss of 4 yards for a SAFETYSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 25END OF GAME
3 plays · -3 yds · 0:3497% → 97%
Q4 1:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-2
97.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the AUB 31Similar
Q4 0:26
2ND & 12
OPP 31
-1
97.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the AUB 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 7:08
Malcolm Simmons run for 4 yds for a TD (Alex McPherson KICK)
-42.6
TD · Q4 4:54
John Mateer run for 9 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)
+30.6
TD · Q2 1:08
Jackson Arnold pass complete to Cam Coleman for 2 yds for a TD (Alex McPherson KICK)
-11.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com