SC
South Carolina 20 at Missouri 29
MIZ2025 · Week 4 · Sep 20, 2025 · Memorial Stadium
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Win probability · MIZ
modelMIZ aheadSC aheadconfidence bandkey play
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SC · Drive 1PUNT · 6 plays · 9 yds
Q1 14:54
Oliver Robbins kickoff for 65 yds , Nyck Harbor return for 26 yds to the SC 26
73.7%
0.0
Q1 14:40
LaNorris Sellers pass complete to Rahsul Faison for 10 yds to the SC 36 for a 1ST down
71.1%
-2.7
Q1 14:04
Brian Rowe Jr. run for no gain to the SC 36
70.9%
-0.2
Q1 13:23
LaNorris Sellers pass complete to Vandrevius Jacobs for a loss of 1 yard to the SC 35
70.9%
0.0
Q1 13:01
LaNorris Sellers pass incomplete to Brian Rowe Jr.
71.1%
+0.2
Q1 12:49
Mason Love punt for 56 yds
71.1%
0.0
MIZ · Drive 2PUNT · 12 plays · 39 yds
Q1 12:42
Ahmad Hardy run for 4 yds to the MIZ 13
73.5%
+2.4
Q1 12:04
Ahmad Hardy run for 4 yds to the MIZ 17
73.5%
0.0
Q1 11:29
Jamal Roberts run for 6 yds to the MIZ 23 for a 1ST down
73.5%
0.0
Q1 10:46
Beau Pribula run for 5 yds to the MIZ 28
73.5%
0.0
Q1 10:09
Ahmad Hardy run for 2 yds to the MIZ 30
73.5%
0.0
Q1 9:23
Beau Pribula pass complete to Marquis Johnson for 5 yds to the MIZ 35 for a 1ST down
73.6%
+0.1
Q1 9:03
Beau Pribula pass complete to Marquis Johnson for 7 yds to the MIZ 42
73.6%
0.0
Q1 8:46
Jamal Roberts run for 3 yds to the MIZ 45 for a 1ST down
74.0%
+0.4
Q1 8:05
Ahmad Hardy run for 3 yds to the MIZ 48
74.2%
+0.2
Q1 7:34
Beau Pribula pass incomplete to Donovan Olugbode
74.2%
0.0
Q1 7:29
Beau Pribula pass incomplete to Xavier Loyd
74.0%
-0.2
Q1 7:19
Connor Weselman punt for 52 yds for a touchback
73.7%
-0.3
SC · Drive 3PUNT · 11 plays · 37 yds
Q1 7:19
PENALTY USC False Start (Stanley,Boaz) 5 yards from USC20 to USC15. NO PLAY.
70.9%
-2.9
Q1 7:13
Rahsul Faison run for a loss of 1 yard to the SC 14
70.9%
0.0
Q1 6:46
(06:47) No Huddle-Shotgun Sellers,LaNorris pass incomplete short left to Harbor,Nyck thrown to USC28 broken up by Norwood,Dreyden PENALTY Mizzou Holding (Norwood,Dreyden) 10 yards from USC14 to USC24, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.
70.9%
0.0
Q1 6:35
LaNorris Sellers pass complete to Jordan Dingle for 20 yds to the SC 44 for a 1ST down
70.9%
0.0
Q1 6:02
Matt Fuller run for 1 yd to the SC 45
67.9%
-3.0
Q1 5:32
LaNorris Sellers pass incomplete to Vandrevius Jacobs
67.9%
0.0
Q1 5:27
(05:27) No Huddle-Shotgun Sellers,LaNorris pass incomplete short middle to Rowe Jr.,Brian thrown to Mizzou40, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY Mizzou Pass Interference (Hall,Stephen) 14 yards from USC45 to Mizzou41, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.
67.9%
0.0
Q1 5:18
LaNorris Sellers sacked by Nicholas Rodriguez for a loss of 3 yards to the MIZ 44
67.3%
-0.6
Q1 4:54
Rahsul Faison run for 1 yd to the MIZ 43
67.4%
+0.1
Q1 4:11
LaNorris Sellers pass incomplete to Mazeo Bennett Jr.
67.3%
-0.1
Q1 4:02
Mason Love punt for 42 yds
68.0%
+0.7
MIZ · Drive 4TD · 9 plays · 99 yds
Q1 3:55
Jamal Roberts run for no gain to the MIZ 1
72.0%
+4.0
Q1 3:06
Beau Pribula pass complete to Marquis Johnson for 8 yds to the MIZ 9
72.0%
0.0
Q1 2:28
Beau Pribula run for 14 yds to the MIZ 23 for a 1ST down South Carolina Penalty, Defensive Holding (Brandon Cisse) to the MIZ 33 for a 1ST down
72.0%
-0.1
Q1 2:02
Kevin Coleman Jr. run for 3 yds to the MIZ 36
71.5%
-0.5
Q1 1:33
Ahmad Hardy run for 27 yds to the SC 37 for a 1ST down
71.7%
+0.2
Q1 0:53
Beau Pribula pass complete to Brett Norfleet for 25 yds to the SC 12 for a 1ST down
73.5%
+1.8
Q1 0:00
Ahmad Hardy run for no gain to the SC 12
73.1%
-0.4
Q2 14:50
Beau Pribula pass complete to Kevin Coleman Jr. for 4 yds to the SC 8
73.1%
0.0
Q2 14:24
Joshua Manning 8 Yd pass from Beau Pribula (Robert Meyer PAT failed)
82.4%
+9.3
SC · Drive 5TD · 11 plays · 67 yds
Q2 14:24
Missouri Penalty, (Yards) declined
75.3%
-7.1
Q2 14:18
Connor Weselman kickoff for 57 yds , Jaquel Holman return for 25 yds to the SC 33
92.9%
+17.6
Q2 14:12
LaNorris Sellers pass complete to Brian Rowe Jr. for 11 yds to the SC 44 for a 1ST down
90.5%
-2.4
Q2 13:48
Matt Fuller run for 6 yds to the 50 yard line
90.5%
0.0
Q2 13:26
Timeout South Carolina, clock 13:26
90.1%
-0.4
Q2 13:19
Oscar Adaway III run for 5 yds to the MIZ 45 for a 1ST down
90.1%
0.0
Q2 12:53
PENALTY USC False Start 5 yards from Mizzou45 to Mizzou50. NO PLAY.
90.0%
-0.1
Q2 12:29
Oscar Adaway III run for a loss of 1 yard to the SC 49
90.1%
+0.1
Q2 11:55
LaNorris Sellers run for 2 yds to the MIZ 49
90.1%
0.0
Q2 11:26
Missouri Penalty, (Yards) declined
76.5%
-13.7
Q2 11:26
Vandrevius Jacobs 49 Yd pass from LaNorris Sellers (William Joyce Kick)
60.8%
-17.7
MIZ · Drive 6FG · 13 plays · 60 yds
Q2 11:26
Max Kelley kickoff for 62 yds
78.5%
+2.0
Q2 11:14
Beau Pribula run for 4 yds to the MIZ 39
67.8%
+7.0
Q2 10:40
Ahmad Hardy run for 14 yds to the SC 47 for a 1ST down
68.1%
+0.3
Q2 10:06
(10:07) No Huddle-Shotgun Pribula,Beau pass complete short right to Johnson,Marquis caught at USC42, for 5 yards to the USC42, End Of Play PENALTY USC Offside (Kilgore,Jalon) 5 yards from USC47 to USC42. NO PLAY.
69.5%
+1.3
Q2 9:35
Beau Pribula pass incomplete
70.0%
+0.6
Q2 9:26
Ahmad Hardy run for 2 yds to the SC 40
70.0%
0.0
Q2 8:41
Beau Pribula pass complete to Marquis Johnson for 18 yds to the SC 22 for a 1ST down
69.8%
-0.2
Q2 7:56
Beau Pribula pass complete to Brett Norfleet for 7 yds to the SC 15
68.2%
-1.6
Q2 7:19
South Carolina Penalty, Face Mask (8 yards) (Shawn Murphy) to the SC 7 for a 1ST down
68.2%
0.0
Q2 6:43
Ahmad Hardy run for 2 yds to the SC 5
68.2%
0.0
Q2 6:03
Beau Pribula pass incomplete to Marquis Johnson
68.2%
0.0
Q2 5:58
Beau Pribula pass incomplete to Kevin Coleman Jr.
68.0%
-0.2
Q2 5:54
Robert Meyer 23 yd FG GOOD
76.2%
+8.2
SC · Drive 7PUNT · 7 plays · -19 yds
Q2 5:54
Oliver Robbins kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
75.8%
-0.4
Q2 5:48
LaNorris Sellers pass incomplete to Jordan Dingle
71.5%
-4.3
Q2 5:42
Rahsul Faison run for 2 yds to the SC 27
71.5%
0.0
Q2 5:07
PENALTY USC False Start (Hay,Nolan) 5 yards from USC27 to USC22. NO PLAY.
71.5%
0.0
Q2 4:36
LaNorris Sellers sacked for a loss of 11 yards to the SC 11
71.5%
0.0
Q2 4:06
PENALTY USC False Start (Hunt,Brady) 5 yards from USC11 to USC06. NO PLAY.
71.5%
0.0
Q2 3:53
Mason Love punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Kevin Coleman Jr. at the SC 46
71.5%
0.0
MIZ · Drive 8INT · 1 play · 0 yds
Q2 3:46
Beau Pribula pass intercepted Gerald Kilgore return for no gain to the SC 30
76.6%
+5.2
SC · Drive 9TD · 4 plays · 70 yds
Q2 3:38
Missouri Penalty, (15 Yards) to the SC 46 for a 1ST down
71.5%
-5.2
Q2 3:08
LaNorris Sellers pass complete to Vandrevius Jacobs for 15 yds to the MIZ 39 for a 1ST down
69.8%
-1.7
Q2 2:43
LaNorris Sellers pass complete to Brian Rowe Jr. for 15 yds to the MIZ 24 for a 1ST down
68.6%
-1.1
Q2 2:31
LaNorris Sellers pass complete to Brian Rowe Jr. for 24 yds for a TD (William Joyce KICK)
47.3%
-21.4
MIZ · Drive 10FG · 14 plays · 71 yds
Q2 2:31
Max Kelley kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
49.1%
+1.8
Q2 2:26
Beau Pribula pass incomplete to Joshua Manning
55.4%
+6.4
Q2 2:17
Ahmad Hardy run for 3 yds to the MIZ 28
55.4%
0.0
Q2 2:00
Timeout Missouri, clock 02:00
54.8%
-0.7
Q2 1:52
Beau Pribula pass complete to Kevin Coleman Jr. for 12 yds to the MIZ 40 for a 1ST down
54.8%
0.0
Q2 1:35
Beau Pribula pass complete to Marquis Johnson for 17 yds to the SC 43 for a 1ST down
55.4%
+0.7
Q2 1:13
Beau Pribula pass incomplete to Joshua Manning
58.0%
+2.6
Q2 1:07
Jamal Roberts run for 18 yds to the SC 25 for a 1ST down
57.4%
-0.6
Q2 0:17
Beau Pribula pass complete to Joshua Manning for 16 yds to the SC 9 for a 1ST down
56.1%
-1.4
Q2 0:17
Timeout Missouri, clock 00:17
55.8%
-0.2
Q2 0:17
Beau Pribula pass incomplete
55.8%
0.0
Q2 0:17
Robert Meyer 22 yd FG GOOD
65.4%
+9.6
Q2 0:00
Ahmad Hardy run for 1 yd to the SC 8
55.4%
-7.6
Q2 0:00
Beau Pribula pass complete to Kevin Coleman Jr. for 4 yds to the SC 4
55.4%
0.0
SC · Drive 11END OF HALF · 2 plays · -1 yds
Q2 0:12
Connor Weselman kickoff for 41 yds , Brady Hunt return for 11 yds to the SC 35
63.0%
-2.4
Q2 0:00
LaNorris Sellers sacked by Khalil Jacobs for a loss of 1 yard to the SC 34
55.6%
+0.3
MIZ · Drive 12PUNT · 6 plays · 7 yds
Q3 14:50
Max Kelley kickoff for 64 yds , DaMarion Fowlkes return for 12 yds to the MIZ 13
58.3%
+2.6
Q3 13:18
Beau Pribula pass complete to Marquis Johnson for 12 yds to the MIZ 25 for a 1ST down
63.4%
+5.1
Q3 13:05
Ahmad Hardy run for no gain to the MIZ 25
63.3%
-0.1
Q3 13:02
Beau Pribula sacked by Fred Johnson for a loss of 5 yards to the MIZ 20
63.3%
0.0
Q3 13:01
Beau Pribula pass incomplete to Donovan Olugbode
63.3%
0.0
Q3 12:50
Connor Weselman punt for 56 yds , Vicari Swain returns for 13 yds to the SC 37
63.3%
0.0
SC · Drive 13FG · 9 plays · 49 yds
Q3 12:10
LaNorris Sellers pass complete to Vandrevius Jacobs for 10 yds to the SC 47 for a 1ST down
57.5%
-5.8
Q3 11:48
Rahsul Faison run for 1 yd to the SC 48
55.7%
-1.7
Q3 11:20
LaNorris Sellers run for 7 yds to the MIZ 45
55.7%
0.0
Q3 10:55
LaNorris Sellers pass complete to Vandrevius Jacobs for 43 yds to the MIZ 2 for a 1ST down
55.5%
-0.3
Q3 10:19
LaNorris Sellers sacked by Zion Young for a loss of 13 yards to the MIZ 15
55.4%
-0.1
Q3 10:00
(10:00) No Huddle-Shotgun Sellers,LaNorris pass incomplete short left to Dingle,Jordan thrown to Mizzou00 PENALTY USC Holding (Sarratt Jr.,Shedrick) 10 yards from Mizzou15 to Mizzou25. NO PLAY.
55.2%
-0.2
Q3 9:52
LaNorris Sellers run for 2 yds to the MIZ 23
55.2%
0.0
Q3 9:05
LaNorris Sellers pass complete to Nyck Harbor for 9 yds to the MIZ 14
55.2%
0.0
Q3 8:27
William Joyce 32 yd FG GOOD
43.1%
-12.1
MIZ · Drive 14TD · 7 plays · 75 yds
Q3 8:27
Max Kelley kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
44.1%
+1.0
Q3 8:17
Ahmad Hardy run for 38 yds to the SC 37 for a 1ST down
51.5%
+7.4
Q3 7:49
Ahmad Hardy run for 4 yds to the SC 33
54.8%
+3.3
Q3 7:20
Ahmad Hardy run for 4 yds to the SC 29
54.8%
0.0
Q3 6:36
Jamal Roberts run for 2 yds to the SC 27 for a 1ST down
54.5%
-0.2
Q3 5:56
Beau Pribula run for 17 yds to the SC 5 for a 1ST down
54.8%
+0.2
Q3 5:34
Ahmad Hardy run for 5 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)
74.7%
+19.9
SC · Drive 15FG · 13 plays · 56 yds
Q3 5:28
Connor Weselman kickoff for 57 yds , Jaquel Holman return for 18 yds to the SC 26
72.9%
-1.8
Q3 5:22
Oscar Adaway III run for 3 yds to the SC 29
68.7%
-4.2
Q3 5:03
LaNorris Sellers pass incomplete to Brady Hunt
68.3%
-0.4
Q3 4:43
LaNorris Sellers pass complete to Jared Brown for 32 yds to the MIZ 39 for a 1ST down
68.0%
-0.4
Q3 4:30
PENALTY USC False Start 5 yards from Mizzou39 to Mizzou44. NO PLAY.
65.4%
-2.6
Q3 4:04
LaNorris Sellers run for 6 yds to the MIZ 38
65.3%
-0.1
Q3 3:22
LaNorris Sellers pass complete to Oscar Adaway III for 14 yds to the MIZ 24 for a 1ST down
64.7%
-0.6
Q3 2:59
Rahsul Faison run for 1 yd to the MIZ 23
64.7%
0.0
Q3 2:18
LaNorris Sellers sacked by Sterling Webb for a loss of 18 yards to the MIZ 41
64.7%
0.0
Q3 1:27
(01:27) No Huddle-Shotgun Sellers,LaNorris pass complete short middle to Dingle,Jordan caught at Mizzou35, for 12 yards to the Mizzou29 (Trotter,Josiah) PENALTY USC Holding (Thompson,Josiah) 10 yards from Mizzou41 to USC49. NO PLAY.
65.0%
+0.2
Q3 0:50
LaNorris Sellers pass complete to Nyck Harbor for 33 yds to the MIZ 18
65.6%
+0.6
Q3 0:23
Timeout Missouri, clock 00:23
65.0%
-0.5
Q3 0:18
William Joyce 36 yd FG GOOD
50.6%
-14.4
MIZ · Drive 16TD · 12 plays · 75 yds
Q3 0:18
Max Kelley kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
51.7%
+1.1
Q3 0:00
Ahmad Hardy run for 6 yds to the MIZ 31
56.6%
+4.8
Q4 14:52
Beau Pribula pass complete to Marquis Johnson for 13 yds to the MIZ 44 for a 1ST down
56.6%
0.0
Q4 14:25
Ahmad Hardy run for 4 yds to the MIZ 48
57.0%
+0.4
Q4 13:55
PENALTY Mizzou False Start (Manning,Joshua) 5 yards from Mizzou48 to Mizzou43. NO PLAY.
57.1%
+0.1
Q4 13:17
Beau Pribula pass complete to Joshua Manning for 12 yds to the SC 45 for a 1ST down
56.8%
-0.3
Q4 12:40
Ahmad Hardy run for 6 yds to the SC 39
58.0%
+1.2
Q4 12:02
Ahmad Hardy run for 4 yds to the SC 35 for a 1ST down
59.0%
+1.0
Q4 11:23
Beau Pribula pass complete to Brett Norfleet for 3 yds to the SC 32
58.9%
-0.1
Q4 10:42
Beau Pribula run for 11 yds to the SC 21 for a 1ST down
58.9%
0.0
Q4 10:05
Ahmad Hardy run for 5 yds to the SC 16
58.9%
0.0
Q4 9:32
Jamal Roberts run for 16 yds for a TD (B. Pribula Run For Two-point Conversion)
85.9%
+27.0
SC · Drive 17PUNT · 5 plays · 3 yds
Q4 9:24
Connor Weselman kickoff for 54 yds , Jaquel Holman return for 19 yds to the SC 30
85.3%
-0.6
Q4 9:19
LaNorris Sellers pass incomplete to Brady Hunt
80.3%
-5.0
Q4 9:03
LaNorris Sellers pass complete to Rahsul Faison for 3 yds to the SC 33
80.6%
+0.3
Q4 8:22
LaNorris Sellers pass incomplete to Nyck Harbor
80.3%
-0.2
Q4 8:15
Mason Love punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Kevin Coleman Jr. at the MIZ 29
80.3%
0.0
MIZ · Drive 18PUNT · 5 plays · 3 yds
Q4 8:07
(08:09) No Huddle-Shotgun Hardy,Ahmad rush right for 0 yards to the Mizzou29 (Okoronkwo,Justin) PENALTY Mizzou Holding (Harris,Jordon) 10 yards from Mizzou29 to Mizzou19. NO PLAY.
85.1%
+4.7
Q4 7:35
Beau Pribula run for 13 yds to the MIZ 32
85.2%
+0.1
Q4 6:55
Jamal Roberts run for no gain to the MIZ 32
85.2%
0.0
Q4 6:16
Beau Pribula pass incomplete to Marquis Johnson
85.4%
+0.2
Q4 6:03
Connor Weselman punt for 37 yds
85.8%
+0.4
SC · Drive 19PUNT · 4 plays · 1 yds
Q4 5:55
LaNorris Sellers run for 1 yd to the SC 32
80.8%
-5.0
Q4 5:17
LaNorris Sellers pass incomplete to Nyck Harbor
82.1%
+1.2
Q4 5:11
LaNorris Sellers pass incomplete to Brian Rowe Jr.
82.1%
0.0
Q4 5:03
Mason Love punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Kevin Coleman Jr. at the MIZ 21
81.4%
-0.6
MIZ · Drive 20FG · 11 plays · 57 yds
Q4 4:56
Jamal Roberts run for 5 yds to the MIZ 26
87.1%
+5.6
Q4 4:14
South Carolina Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (David Bucey) to the MIZ 42 for a 1ST down
87.6%
+0.5
Q4 3:39
Beau Pribula run for 15 yds to the SC 43 for a 1ST down
88.0%
+0.4
Q4 2:59
Jamal Roberts run for 6 yds to the SC 37
89.9%
+1.9
Q4 2:12
Jamal Roberts run for 4 yds to the SC 33 for a 1ST down
90.4%
+0.4
Q4 2:00
Timeout Missouri, clock 02:00
90.4%
+0.1
Q4 1:54
Jamal Roberts run for 15 yds to the SC 18 for a 1ST down
90.8%
+0.4
Q4 1:50
Jamal Roberts run for no gain to the SC 18
90.8%
0.0
Q4 1:45
Beau Pribula run for a loss of 2 yards to the SC 20
90.9%
+0.1
Q4 1:39
Kevin Coleman Jr. run for a loss of 2 yards to the SC 22
90.9%
0.0
Q4 1:34
Robert Meyer 40 yd FG GOOD
91.7%
+0.7
SC · Drive 21DOWNS · 7 plays · 5 yds
Q4 1:30
Connor Weselman kickoff for 50 yds , Jaquel Holman return for 25 yds to the SC 40
91.7%
0.0
Q4 1:21
LaNorris Sellers pass complete to Vandrevius Jacobs for 7 yds to the SC 47
92.1%
+0.4
Q4 1:17
(01:17) Shotgun Sellers,LaNorris pass incomplete short left to Harbor,Nyck thrown to Mizzou48 PENALTY USC Ineligible Downfield on Pass (Hunt,Brady) 5 yards from USC47 to USC42. NO PLAY.
92.1%
0.0
Q4 1:02
LaNorris Sellers pass complete to Vandrevius Jacobs for 5 yds to the SC 47
92.1%
0.0
Q4 0:52
LaNorris Sellers pass incomplete
92.2%
+0.1
Q4 0:52
PENALTY USC False Start (Thompson,Josiah) 5 yards from USC47 to USC42. NO PLAY.
92.2%
0.0
Q4 0:46
LaNorris Sellers pass complete to Nyck Harbor for 3 yds to the SC 45
92.2%
0.0
MIZ · Drive 22END OF GAME · 3 plays · -2 yds
Q4 0:39
J. Roberts takes a knee
91.7%
-0.5
Q4 0:00
J. Roberts takes a knee
91.7%
-0.1
Q4 0:00
J. Roberts takes a knee
91.7%
0.0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 9:32
Jamal Roberts run for 16 yds for a TD (B. Pribula Run For Two-point Conversion)
+27
TD · Q2 2:31
LaNorris Sellers pass complete to Brian Rowe Jr. for 24 yds for a TD (William Joyce KICK)
-21.4
TD · Q3 5:34
Ahmad Hardy run for 5 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)
+19.9