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NIU

Northern Illinois 10 at Mississippi State 38

MSST
2025 · Week 4 · Sep 20, 2025 · Davis Wade Stadium
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Win probability · MSST
modelMSST aheadNIU aheadconfidence bandkey playMSST scoreNIU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 2:35 · Danny Vuckovic punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Anthony Evans III at the MSST 33
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+45.0+22.50−22.5−45.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 153Pregame prior+2.9Home team on offense+36.7Score differential+31.6Garbage-time factor+12.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+9.8Blowout margin+17.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 14:53: Josh Holst pass complete to DeAree Rogers for 24 yds for a TD (Andrew Glass KICK) — NIU win probability +1.6 pts (now 11%) (top driver: NIU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 11:31: Blake Shapen pass complete to Seydou Traore for 1 yd for a TD (Kyle Ferrie KICK) — MSST win probability +1.1 pts (now 91%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 12:55: Davon Booth run for 1 yd for a TD (Kyle Ferrie KICK) — MSST win probability +5.1 pts (now 93%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  4. FG · Q3 0:54: Kyle Ferrie 48 yd FG GOOD — MSST win probability +3.2 pts (now 96%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 11:18: Davon Booth run for 6 yds for a TD (Kyle Ferrie KICK) — MSST win probability +2.5 pts (now 99%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MSST made the numbers' call on 8 of 8NIU made the numbers' call on 9 of 10
  1. Q1 9:41NIU 4th & 8 at MSST 12, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 8.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.0%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    8.1%
    86% to make
    Punt
    7.6%−0.5
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:49MSST 4th & 1 at NIU 40, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 90.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    90.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    90.3%−0.3
    34% to make
    Punt
    90.3%−0.2
    average punt
  3. Q1 0:57NIU 4th & 10 at NIU 47, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.9%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.1%
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:57NIU 4th & 10 at NIU 47, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.9%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.1%
    average punt
  5. Q1 0:21MSST 4th & 8 at MSST 6, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.9%−0.3
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.2%
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:59MSST 4th & 5 at NIU 43, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 87.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    87.4%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    87.0%−0.3
    28% to make
    Punt
    87.2%−0.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 9:53NIU 4th & 5 at NIU 40, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.0%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.0%
    average punt
  8. Q2 8:51MSST 4th & 5 at MSST 35, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.1%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.3%
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:58NIU 4th & 13 at MSST 46, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.1%−0.3
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    14.0%−0.4
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    14.4%
    average punt
  10. Q2 1:58NIU 4th & 13 at MSST 46, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.1%−0.3
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    14.0%−0.4
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    14.4%
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:35MSST 4th & 4 at MSST 32, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.7%−0.5
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.2%
    average punt
  12. Q3 7:01MSST 4th & 1 at MSST 45, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 90.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    91.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    90.0%−1.0
    average punt
  13. Q3 0:54MSST 4th & 24 at NIU 30, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 91.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.2%−1.6
    7% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    90.8%
    56% to make
    Punt
    89.9%−0.9
    average punt
  14. Q4 13:28NIU 4th & 5 at MSST 40, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 6.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.5%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    5.7%−0.8
    34% to make
    Punt
    5.8%−0.6
    average punt
  15. Q4 9:33NIU 4th & 6 at NIU 43, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 0.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.9%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    1.0%
    average punt
  16. Q4 7:57MSST 4th & 3 at NIU 36, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.1%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    98.9%−0.2
    42% to make
    Punt
    98.8%−0.3
    average punt
  17. Q4 2:35NIU 4th & 15 at NIU 20, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−<0.1
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.0%
    average punt
  18. Q4 2:35NIU 4th & 15 at NIU 20, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−<0.1
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.0%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MSST made the numbers' call on 5 of 5NIU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 3:48MSST Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:53NIU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    12.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    12.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 11:31MSST Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 12:55MSST Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 11:18MSST Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 4:31MSST Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NIUDrive 1FG
12 plays · 63 yds · 5:135% → 7%
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
94.8%
Chavon Wright run for 3 yds to the NIU 28Similar
Q1 14:26
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-5
94.7%
PENALTY NIU False Start (Tweedy,Aidan) 5 yards from NIU28 to NIU23. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 13:53
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+32
94.6%
Telly Johnson Jr. run for 32 yds to the MSST 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:09
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+8
94.4%
Josh Holst pass complete to Jaylen Poe for 8 yds to the MSST 37Similar
Q1 12:31
2ND & 2
OPP 37
+13
94.2%
Josh Holst pass complete to DeAree Rogers for 13 yds to the MSST 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:54
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+4
94.0%
Chavon Wright run for 4 yds to the MSST 20Similar
Q1 11:13
2ND & 6
OPP 20
+6
93.8%
Josh Holst run for 6 yds to the MSST 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:29
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
93.6%
Josh Holst pass incomplete to Jake ApplegetSimilar
Q1 10:24
2ND & 10
OPP 14
0
93.6%
Josh Holst pass incomplete to Telly Johnson Jr.Similar
Q1 10:14
3RD & 10
OPP 14
+2
93.6%
Josh Holst pass complete to Chavon Wright for 2 yds to the MSST 12Similar
Q1 9:41
4TH & 8
OPP 12
+30
93.5%
Andrew Glass 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 2TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 5:4293% → 93%
Q1 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
93.4%
Blake Shapen run for 5 yds to the MSST 30Similar
Q1 9:07
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
93.3%
Blake Shapen run for no gain to the MSST 30Similar
Q1 8:37
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+8
93.1%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Davon Booth for 8 yds to the MSST 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
93.1%
Davon Booth run for 2 yds to the MSST 40Similar
Q1 7:48
2ND & 8
OWN 40
+11
93.0%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Brenen Thompson for 11 yds to the NIU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:28
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+3
93.0%
Blake Shapen run for 3 yds to the NIU 46Similar
Q1 6:52
2ND & 7
OPP 46
+2
92.9%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Brenen Thompson for 2 yds to the NIU 44Similar
Q1 6:24
3RD & 5
OPP 44
+4
92.7%
Blake Shapen run for 4 yds to the NIU 40Similar
Q1 5:49
4TH & 1
OPP 40
+1
92.3%
Fluff Bothwell run for 1 yd to the NIU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:22
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+1
92.4%
Fluff Bothwell run for 1 yd to the NIU 38Similar
Q1 4:50
2ND & 9
OPP 38
+24
92.2%
Blake Shapen run for 24 yds to the NIU 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:26
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+4
92.2%
Fluff Bothwell run for 4 yds to the NIU 10Similar
Q1 3:48
2ND & 6
OPP 10
+10
92.8%
Brenen Thompson run for 10 yds for a TD (Kyle Ferrie KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 3PUNT
8 plays · 22 yds · 2:458% → 8%
Q1 3:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
92.4%
Telly Johnson Jr. run for 3 yds to the NIU 28Similar
Q1 3:02
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+19
92.2%
Josh Holst pass complete to Gary Givens for 19 yds to the NIU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:26
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
91.6%
Telly Johnson Jr. run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 1:45
2ND & 7
50
-3
91.4%
Jaylen Poe run for a loss of 3 yards to the NIU 47Similar
Q1 1:09
3RD & 10
OWN 47
0
91.4%
Josh Holst pass incomplete to George DimopoulosSimilar
Q1 0:57
4TH & 10
OWN 47
+16
91.7%
Danny Vuckovic punt for 47 yds , Anthony Evans III returns for 16 yds to the MSST 22Similar
Q1 0:57
4TH & 10
OWN 47
+16
91.7%
Danny Vuckovic punt for 47 yds , Anthony Evans III returns for 16 yds to the MSST 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:3292% → 91%
Q1 0:53
1ST & 10
OWN 4
0
91.5%
Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Brenen ThompsonSimilar
Q1 0:46
2ND & 10
OWN 4
+7
91.4%
Fluff Bothwell run for 7 yds to the MSST 11Similar
Q1 0:25
3RD & 3
OWN 11
0
91.1%
Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Seydou TraoreSimilar
Q1 0:25
4TH & 3
OWN 11
-5
91.0%
PENALTY MSU Delay Of Game (Tiyce,Nathan) 5 yards from MSU11 to MSU06. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 0:21
4TH & 8
OWN 6
0
91.0%
Nathan Tiyce punt for 21 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MSST 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 5TD
2 plays · 27 yds · 0:0710% → 11%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+3
90.5%
Chavon Wright run for 3 yds to the MSST 24Similar
Q2 14:53
2ND & 7
OPP 24
+24
88.9%
Josh Holst pass complete to DeAree Rogers for 24 yds for a TD (Andrew Glass KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 6TD
11 plays · 48 yds · 3:1490% → 91%
Q2 14:45
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
90.4%
Davon Booth run for 3 yds to the NIU 45Similar
Q2 14:23
2ND & 7
OPP 45
+3
90.3%
Davon Booth run for 3 yds to the NIU 42Similar
Q2 14:01
3RD & 4
OPP 42
-5
90.1%
(14:06) No Huddle-Shotgun Booth,Davon rush middle for 7 yards gain to the NIU35 (Beeler,Jasper; Maciorowski,Filip) PENALTY MSU Illegal Formation 5 yards from NIU42 to NIU47. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 13:31
3RD & 9
OPP 47
+4
89.7%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Anthony Evans III for 4 yds to the NIU 43Similar
Q2 12:59
4TH & 5
OPP 43
+9
89.2%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Anthony Evans III for 9 yds to the NIU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:38
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+15
89.9%
(12:42) No Huddle-Shotgun Shapen,Blake pass incomplete deep right to Thompson,Brenen thrown to NIU00 PENALTY NIU Pass Interference (Finley,Jacob) 15 yards from NIU34 to NIU19, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:31
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+12
89.8%
Xavier Gayten run for 12 yds to the NIU 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
89.6%
Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Fluff BothwellSimilar
Q2 11:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+6
89.6%
Blake Shapen run for 6 yds to the NIU 1Similar
Q2 11:31
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
90.7%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Seydou Traore for 1 yd for a TD (Kyle Ferrie KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:3110% → 10%
Q2 11:24
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-1
90.0%
Telly Johnson Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the NIU 34Similar
Q2 10:50
2ND & 11
OWN 34
+4
90.0%
Josh Holst pass complete to DeAree Rogers for 4 yds to the NIU 38Similar
Q2 10:34
3RD & 7
OWN 38
+2
89.7%
Chavon Wright run for 2 yds to the NIU 40Similar
Q2 9:53
4TH & 5
OWN 40
0
89.7%
Danny Vuckovic punt for 47 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 22 yds · 0:5590% → 89%
Q2 9:46
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+17
89.6%
Anthony Evans III run for 17 yds to the MSST 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:23
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
89.6%
Davon Booth run for 5 yds to the MSST 35Similar
Q2 9:07
2ND & 5
OWN 35
0
89.8%
Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Jordan MosleySimilar
Q2 8:59
3RD & 5
OWN 35
0
89.3%
Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Sam WestSimilar
Q2 8:51
4TH & 5
OWN 35
0
89.0%
Ethan Pulliam punt for 50 yds, fair catch by DeAree Rogers at the NIU 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 9PUNT
15 plays · 54 yds · 6:4611% → 11%
Q2 8:44
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+11
89.2%
Josh Holst run for 11 yds to the NIU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:07
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+8
89.1%
Chavon Wright run for 8 yds to the NIU 34Similar
Q2 7:32
2ND & 2
OWN 34
+5
88.4%
Telly Johnson Jr. run for 5 yds to the NIU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:51
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+1
88.1%
Chavon Wright run for 1 yd to the NIU 40Similar
Q2 6:05
2ND & 9
OWN 40
+2
87.9%
Josh Holst run for 2 yds to the NIU 42Similar
Q2 5:15
3RD & 7
OWN 42
+15
87.6%
Josh Holst pass complete to DeAree Rogers for 15 yds to the MSST 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:18
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+4
87.4%
Josh Holst pass complete to George Dimopoulos for 4 yds George Dimopoulos fumbled, recovered by NIU George DimopoulosSimilar
Q2 3:47
2ND & 14
OPP 47
-10
88.9%
(03:53) No Huddle-Shotgun Wright,Chavon rush left for 15 yards gain to the MSU32 (Smith,Jalen) PENALTY NIU Holding (Malcore,Evan) 10 yards from MSU47 to NIU43. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 3:28
2ND & 24
OWN 43
+5
89.3%
Josh Holst pass complete to Chavon Wright for 5 yds to the NIU 48Similar
Q2 2:46
3RD & 19
OWN 48
+6
89.1%
Chavon Wright run for 6 yds to the MSST 46Similar
Q2 1:58
4TH & 13
OPP 46
+5
88.9%
Danny Vuckovic punt blocked by Nevaeh Sanders blocked by Nevaeh SandersSimilar
Q2 1:58
4TH & 13
OPP 46
+5
88.9%
Danny Vuckovic punt blocked by Nevaeh Sanders blocked by Nevaeh SandersSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:1788% → 87%
Q2 1:52
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
87.6%
Fluff Bothwell run for 5 yds to the MSST 31Similar
Q2 1:33
2ND & 5
OWN 31
0
87.6%
Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Jordan MosleySimilar
Q2 1:23
3RD & 5
OWN 31
+1
87.1%
Blake Shapen run for 1 yd to the MSST 32Similar
Q2 0:35
4TH & 4
OWN 32
0
86.9%
Ethan Pulliam punt for 51 yds, fair catch by DeAree Rogers at the NIU 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 11END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0011% → 11%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-1
88.7%
J. Holst takes a kneeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 12TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 1:5887% → 93%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
86.5%
(15:00) No Huddle-Shotgun Bothwell,Fluff rush left for 7 yards gain to the MSU32 (Urwiler,Quinton; Beeler,Jasper) PENALTY MSU Holding (Work,Luke) 10 yards from MSU25 to MSU15. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 14:35
1ST & 20
OWN 15
+22
86.2%
Fluff Bothwell run for 22 yds to the MSST 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:10
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
86.6%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Fluff Bothwell for 5 yds to the MSST 42Similar
Q3 13:48
2ND & 5
OWN 42
+10
87.0%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Anthony Evans III for 10 yds to the NIU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:26
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+45
87.3%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Jordan Mosley for 45 yds to the NIU 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
87.6%
Davon Booth run for 2 yds to the NIU 1Similar
Q3 12:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
92.6%
Davon Booth run for 1 yd for a TD (Kyle Ferrie KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 13INT
10 plays · 55 yds · 4:078% → 10%
Q3 12:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+24
91.6%
Josh Holst pass complete to DeAree Rogers for 24 yds to the NIU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:17
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-10
90.7%
Northern Illinois Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the NIU 45Similar
Q3 11:57
1ST & 14
OWN 45
+5
91.1%
Jaylen Poe run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 11:17
2ND & 9
50
+15
90.5%
Mississippi State Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the MSST 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:49
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
89.8%
Josh Holst pass incomplete to Gary GivensSimilar
Q3 10:44
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+11
89.8%
Chavon Wright run for 11 yds to the MSST 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:02
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+3
89.4%
Chavon Wright run for 3 yds to the MSST 16Similar
Q3 9:23
2ND & 7
OPP 16
-4
89.3%
Chavon Wright run for a loss of 4 yards to the MSST 20Similar
Q3 8:41
3RD & 11
OPP 20
0
90.1%
Josh Holst pass intercepted, touchback. Isaac Smith return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 14FG
17 plays · 50 yds · 7:4192% → 96%
Q3 8:35
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+16
91.9%
Fluff Bothwell run for 16 yds to the MSST 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:12
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
92.2%
Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Brenen ThompsonSimilar
Q3 8:06
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+8
92.0%
Fluff Bothwell run for 8 yds to the MSST 44Similar
Q3 7:50
3RD & 2
OWN 44
+1
92.1%
Fluff Bothwell run for 1 yd to the MSST 45Similar
Q3 7:01
4TH & 1
OWN 45
+5
91.6%
Kamario Taylor run for 5 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:24
1ST & 10
50
+5
92.4%
Anthony Evans III run for 5 yds to the NIU 45Similar
Q3 5:53
2ND & 5
OPP 45
-10
92.4%
(06:01) Shotgun Booth,Davon rush middle for 15 yards gain to the NIU30 (Finley,Jacob; Beeler,Jasper) PENALTY MSU Holding (West,Sam) 10 yards from NIU45 to MSU45. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:37
2ND & 15
OWN 45
-6
92.3%
Blake Shapen sacked for a loss of 6 yards to the MSST 39Similar
Q3 4:53
3RD & 21
OWN 39
+22
91.9%
Blake Shapen run for 22 yds to the NIU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:18
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+3
92.6%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Ayden Williams for 3 yds to the NIU 36Similar
Q3 3:56
2ND & 7
OPP 36
+6
92.6%
Fluff Bothwell run for 6 yds to the NIU 30Similar
Q3 3:34
3RD & 1
OPP 30
+14
92.4%
Fluff Bothwell run for 14 yds to the NIU 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:01
1ST & 10
OPP 16
-1
92.7%
Anthony Evans III run for a loss of 1 yard to the NIU 17Similar
Q3 2:34
2ND & 11
OPP 17
-8
93.0%
Blake Shapen sacked for a loss of 8 yards to the NIU 25Similar
Q3 1:52
3RD & 19
OPP 25
-10
92.4%
(02:00) No Huddle-Shotgun Booth,Davon rush left for 19 yards gain to the NIU06 (Myles,Ty; Harrison,Donte) PENALTY MSU Holding 10 yards from NIU25 to NIU35. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 1:34
3RD & 29
OPP 35
+5
92.3%
Fluff Bothwell run for 5 yds to the NIU 30Similar
Q3 0:54
4TH & 24
OPP 30
+48
95.5%
Kyle Ferrie 48 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 15DOWNS
7 plays · 39 yds · 2:206% → 6%
Q3 0:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
93.9%
Telly Johnson Jr. run for 4 yds to the NIU 29Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+26
94.0%
Josh Holst pass complete to George Dimopoulos for 11 yds to the MSST 40 for a 1ST down Mississippi State Penalty, UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Hunter Washington) to the MSST 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-1
93.7%
Chavon Wright run for a loss of 1 yard to the MSST 46Similar
Q4 14:18
2ND & 11
OPP 46
0
93.6%
Josh Holst pass incomplete to La'Don BryantSimilar
Q4 14:10
3RD & 11
OPP 46
+6
93.8%
Chavon Wright run for 6 yds to the MSST 40Similar
Q4 13:28
4TH & 5
OPP 40
+4
93.9%
Josh Holst pass complete to DeAree Rogers for 4 yds to the MSST 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 16TD
5 plays · 64 yds · 2:0496% → 99%
Q4 13:22
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
96.1%
Fluff Bothwell run for 1 yd to the MSST 37Similar
Q4 12:55
2ND & 9
OWN 37
0
96.1%
Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Anthony Evans IIISimilar
Q4 12:42
3RD & 9
OWN 37
+57
96.0%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Anthony Evans III for 57 yds to the NIU 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
96.6%
Blake Shapen run for no gain to the NIU 6Similar
Q4 11:18
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
99.1%
Davon Booth run for 6 yds for a TD (Kyle Ferrie KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 17DOWNS
7 plays · 18 yds · 1:371% → 1%
Q4 11:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
99.1%
Jaylen Poe run for 14 yds to the NIU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:32
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
99.1%
Josh Holst pass incomplete to Andrew BondSimilar
Q4 10:23
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+4
99.1%
Josh Holst pass complete to Telly Johnson Jr. for 4 yds to the NIU 43Similar
Q4 9:38
3RD & 6
OWN 43
0
99.1%
Josh Holst pass incomplete to DeAree RogersSimilar
Q4 9:33
4TH & 6
OWN 43
0
99.1%
Josh Holst pass incomplete to George DimopoulosSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 18TD
10 plays · 43 yds · 4:5699% → 100%
Q4 9:27
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+2
99.3%
Fluff Bothwell run for 2 yds to the NIU 41Similar
Q4 8:44
2ND & 8
OPP 41
+2
99.3%
Fluff Bothwell run for 2 yds to the NIU 39Similar
Q4 8:05
3RD & 6
OPP 39
+3
99.3%
Fluff Bothwell run for 3 yds to the NIU 36Similar
Q4 7:57
4TH & 3
OPP 36
+5
99.3%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Fluff Bothwell for 5 yds to the NIU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:13
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+3
99.4%
Fluff Bothwell run for 3 yds to the NIU 28Similar
Q4 6:27
2ND & 7
OPP 28
+10
99.4%
Xavier Gayten run for 10 yds to the NIU 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:42
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-5
99.5%
PENALTY MSU False Start 5 yards from NIU18 to NIU23. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 5:09
1ST & 15
OPP 23
+22
99.5%
Xavier Gayten run for 22 yds to the NIU 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.9%
Xavier Gayten run for 1 yd for a TD (Kyle Ferrie KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 19PUNT
7 plays · -5 yds · 1:470% → 0%
Q4 4:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
100.0%
(04:31) No Huddle-Shotgun Davidson,Brady pass complete short middle to Bryant,La'Don caught at NIU29, for 9 yards to the NIU34 (Forrest,Fatt; Chapman,Montrell) PENALTY NIU Holding 10 yards from NIU25 to NIU15. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 3:57
1ST & 20
OWN 15
0
100.0%
Brady Davidson pass incomplete to La'Don BryantSimilar
Q4 3:49
2ND & 20
OWN 15
+7
100.0%
Brady Davidson pass complete to Kenji Lewis for 7 yds to the NIU 22Similar
Q4 3:14
3RD & 13
OWN 22
-2
100.0%
Brady Davidson sacked by Ray Thomas for a loss of 2 yards to the NIU 20Similar
Q4 2:35
4TH & 15
OWN 20
0
100.0%
Danny Vuckovic punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Anthony Evans III at the MSST 33Similar
Q4 2:35
4TH & 15
OWN 20
0
100.0%
Danny Vuckovic punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Anthony Evans III at the MSST 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 20END OF GAME
5 plays · 37 yds · 2:25100% → 100%
Q4 2:25
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+9
100.0%
Kamario Taylor run for 9 yds to the MSST 32Similar
Q4 1:53
2ND & 1
OWN 32
+5
100.0%
Seth Davis run for 5 yds to the MSST 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:08
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+12
100.0%
Kamario Taylor run for 12 yds to the MSST 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:02
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+4
100.0%
Seth Davis run for 4 yds to the NIU 47Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 6
OPP 47
+7
100.0%
Seth Davis run for 7 yds to the NIU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 12:55
Davon Booth run for 1 yd for a TD (Kyle Ferrie KICK)
+5.1
FG · Q3 0:54
Kyle Ferrie 48 yd FG GOOD
+3.2
TD · Q4 11:18
Davon Booth run for 6 yds for a TD (Kyle Ferrie KICK)
+2.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com