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UTEP

UTEP 10 at Texas 27

TEX
2025 · Week 3 · Sep 13, 2025 · DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium
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Win probability · TEX
modelTEX aheadUTEP aheadconfidence bandkey playTEX scoreUTEP score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDFGFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 5:57 · Noah Botsford punt for 58 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TEX 15 Texas Penalty, Illegal Block (Warren Roberson) to the TEX 8
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+49.0+24.50−24.5−49.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 63Pregame prior+39.9Home team on offense+5.3Score differential+1.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+2.5Garbage-time factor−0.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.9
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q2 1:55: Carlos Arreola 39 yd FG GOOD — UTEP win probability +0.9 pts (now 6%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  2. TD · Q2 0:01: Arch Manning run for 5 yds for a TD (Mason Shipley KICK) — TEX win probability +2.0 pts (now 97%) (top driver: TEX has the ball).
  3. FG · Q3 7:50: Mason Shipley 31 yd FG GOOD — TEX win probability +1.0 pts (now 97%) (top driver: TEX has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 1:57: Shay Smith run for 2 yds for a TD (Carlos Arreola KICK) — UTEP win probability +1.8 pts (now 3%) (top driver: UTEP has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 1:50: Matthew Caldwell run for 14 yds to the UTEP 33 for a 1ST down — TEX win probability +1.4 pts (now 100%) (top driver: TEX has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TEX made the numbers' call on 12 of 12UTEP made the numbers' call on 7 of 10
  1. Q1 11:54TEX 4th & 4 at UTEP 44, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    98.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    98.3%−0.1
    27% to make
    Punt
    98.4%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:22UTEP 4th & 1 at TEX 47, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    1.6%−0.2
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:55TEX 4th & 1 at UTEP 22, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    98.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    97.8%−0.1
    72% to make
    Punt
    97.4%−0.5
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:12UTEP 4th & 11 at UTEP 12, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.3%−0.2
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.5%
    average punt
  5. Q1 0:00TEX 4th & 1 at UTEP 22, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 97.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    97.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    97.1%−0.1
    72% to make
    Punt
    96.7%−0.5
    average punt
  6. Q2 13:39TEX 4th & 2 at UTEP 10, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 97.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    97.1%
    55% to convert
    Field goal
    97.0%−0.1
    88% to make
    Punt
    96.5%−0.5
    average punt
  7. Q2 11:43UTEP 4th & 6 at UTEP 9, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.1%−<0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.1%
    average punt
  8. Q2 8:59TEX 4th & 2 at UTEP 34, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 96.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    96.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    96.2%−0.2
    47% to make
    Punt
    96.1%−0.3
    average punt
  9. Q2 8:59TEX 4th & 2 at UTEP 34, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 96.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    96.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    96.2%−0.2
    47% to make
    Punt
    96.1%−0.3
    average punt
  10. Q2 7:50TEX 4th & 10 at TEX 38, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.9%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.1%
    average punt
  11. Q2 5:57UTEP 4th & 1 at UTEP 27, down 7
    Close callPunted · 4.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.0%−0.2
    average punt
  12. Q2 4:05TEX 4th & 8 at TEX 20, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.9%−0.2
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.1%
    average punt
  13. Q2 1:55UTEP 4th & 3 at TEX 22, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 5.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    5.5%−0.1
    72% to make
    Punt
    4.2%−1.5
    average punt
  14. Q2 1:27TEX 4th & 5 at TEX 27, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.6%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.7%
    average punt
  15. Q2 0:54UTEP 4th & 9 at UTEP 33, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.3%−0.4
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.6%
    average punt
  16. Q2 0:54UTEP 4th & 9 at UTEP 33, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.3%−0.4
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.6%
    average punt
  17. Q3 12:45UTEP 4th & 9 at UTEP 36, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.2%−0.2
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.4%
    average punt
  18. Q3 7:50TEX 4th & 13 at UTEP 13, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 94.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.2%−0.5
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    94.7%
    85% to make
    Punt
    92.7%−2.1
    average punt
  19. Q3 1:41TEX 4th & 12 at UTEP 12, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 97.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.3%−0.6
    19% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    96.9%
    86% to make
    Punt
    94.4%−2.4
    average punt
  20. Q4 14:32UTEP 4th & 3 at UTEP 47, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    2.5%−0.3
    average punt
  21. Q4 8:11UTEP 4th & 6 at TEX 24, down 24
    Close callWent for it · 0.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.7%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    0.7%
    68% to make
    Punt
    0.4%−0.3
    average punt
  22. Q4 4:53TEX 4th & 14 at TEX 34, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.3%−0.1
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.4%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TEX made the numbers' call on 2 of 3UTEP made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 5:26TEX Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 0:01TEX Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 10:52TEX Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.4%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.4%
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 1:57UTEP Touchdown, down 18 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    1.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    1.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TEXDrive 1DOWNS
8 plays · 35 yds · 2:5499% → 99%
Q1 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+6
98.9%
CJ Baxter run for 6 yds to the TEX 27Similar
Q1 14:02
2ND & 4
OWN 27
+23
98.8%
Arch Manning pass complete to Christian Clark for 23 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:23
1ST & 10
50
+2
98.8%
Christian Clark run for 2 yds to the UTEP 48Similar
Q1 12:54
2ND & 8
OPP 48
+2
98.7%
Jerrick Gibson run for 2 yds to the UTEP 46Similar
Q1 12:21
3RD & 6
OPP 46
+2
98.7%
Christian Clark run for 2 yds to the UTEP 44Similar
Q1 11:54
4TH & 4
OPP 44
0
98.6%
Arch Manning pass incomplete to Ryan WingoSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 2DOWNS
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:151% → 2%
Q1 11:37
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+9
98.6%
Malachi Nelson pass complete to Toric Goins Jr. for 9 yds to the TEX 47Similar
Q1 11:25
2ND & 1
OPP 47
0
98.6%
Ashten Emory run for no gain to the TEX 47Similar
Q1 10:46
3RD & 1
OPP 47
0
98.5%
Ashten Emory run for no gain to the TEX 47Similar
Q1 10:22
4TH & 1
OPP 47
0
98.5%
Ashten Emory run for no gain to the TEX 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 3TD
12 plays · 53 yds · 4:4399% → 98%
Q1 10:09
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+22
98.5%
Arch Manning pass complete to Parker Livingstone for 22 yds to the UTEP 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:31
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+9
98.4%
Jerrick Gibson run for 9 yds to the UTEP 22Similar
Q1 9:04
2ND & 1
OPP 22
0
98.4%
Jerrick Gibson run for no gain to the UTEP 22Similar
Q1 8:27
3RD & 1
OPP 22
0
98.3%
Jerrick Gibson run for no gain to the UTEP 22Similar
Q1 7:55
4TH & 1
OPP 22
+7
98.2%
Jerrick Gibson run for 7 yds to the UTEP 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:12
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+7
98.2%
Arch Manning run for 7 yds to the UTEP 8Similar
Q1 6:55
2ND & 3
OPP 8
+7
98.2%
Christian Clark run for 7 yds to the UTEP 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
98.1%
(06:23) Shotgun Gibson,Jerrick rush middle for 0 yards to the UTE01 (Campbell,Neil) PENALTY UTE Offside. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 5:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-2
98.1%
Jerrick Gibson run for a loss of 2 yards to the UTEP 3Similar
Q1 5:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
98.0%
(05:30) No Huddle-Shotgun Manning,Arch pass incomplete short right to Wingo,Ryan thrown to UTE00 broken up by Thompson,Donte PENALTY UTE Holding declined UTE Pass Interference (Thompson,Donte) 1 yard from UTE03 to UTE02, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 5:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
98.3%
Arch Manning run for 2 yds for a TD (Mason Shipley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 4PUNT
8 plays · 9 yds · 3:072% → 2%
Q1 5:19
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+2
98.3%
Ashten Emory run for 2 yds to the UTEP 5Similar
Q1 4:41
2ND & 8
OWN 5
+5
98.2%
Malachi Nelson pass complete to Kenny Odom for 5 yds to the UTEP 10Similar
Q1 3:58
3RD & 3
OWN 10
+3
98.2%
Ashten Emory run for 3 yds to the UTEP 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:13
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
98.1%
Malachi Nelson pass complete to Ashten Emory for no gain to the UTEP 13Similar
Q1 2:37
2ND & 10
OWN 13
-1
98.0%
Ashten Emory run for a loss of 1 yard to the UTEP 12Similar
Q1 2:25
3RD & 11
OWN 12
0
98.0%
Malachi Nelson pass incomplete to Toric Goins Jr.Similar
Q1 2:12
4TH & 11
OWN 12
+23
98.0%
Noah Botsford punt for 42 yds , Ryan Niblett returns for 23 yds to the UTEP 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 5INT
9 plays · 21 yds · 3:2398% → 98%
Q1 2:02
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-2
98.0%
Ryan Wingo run for a loss of 2 yards to the UTEP 33Similar
Q1 1:29
2ND & 12
OPP 33
+2
97.9%
Jerrick Gibson run for 2 yds to the UTEP 31Similar
Q1 0:49
3RD & 10
OPP 31
+9
97.8%
Arch Manning pass complete to Christian Clark for 9 yds to the UTEP 22Similar
Q1 0:00
4TH & 1
OPP 22
+4
97.7%
Jerrick Gibson run for 4 yds to the UTEP 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:47
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+4
97.8%
Jerrick Gibson run for 4 yds to the UTEP 14Similar
Q2 14:21
2ND & 6
OPP 14
+4
97.7%
Arch Manning pass complete to Jack Endries for 4 yds to the UTEP 10Similar
Q2 13:52
3RD & 2
OPP 10
0
97.6%
Arch Manning pass incomplete to Ryan WingoSimilar
Q2 13:39
4TH & 2
OPP 10
-5
97.5%
Arch Manning pass intercepted Xavier Smith return for 5 yds to the UTEP 5Similar
Q2 13:39
4TH & 2
OPP 10
0
97.5%
Texas Penalty, Ineligible Downfield on Pass (Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:452% → 3%
Q2 13:28
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+3
97.6%
Malachi Nelson pass complete to Trevon Tate for 3 yds to the UTEP 8Similar
Q2 13:07
2ND & 7
OWN 8
-4
97.5%
Ashten Emory run for a loss of 4 yards to the UTEP 4Similar
Q2 12:44
3RD & 11
OWN 4
-2
97.5%
(12:50) PENALTY UTE False Start 2 yards from UTE04 to UTE02. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:25
3RD & 13
OWN 2
+7
97.5%
Malachi Nelson pass complete to Ashten Emory for 7 yds to the UTEP 9Similar
Q2 11:43
4TH & 6
OWN 9
0
97.5%
Noah Botsford punt for 37 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TEX 44 , Ryan Niblett returns for no gain to the TEX 9 Texas Penalty, Illegal Block (Warren Roberson) to the TEX 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 7DOWNS
7 plays · 22 yds · 2:2897% → 97%
Q2 11:27
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+9
97.3%
Christian Clark run for 9 yds to the UTEP 47Similar
Q2 11:13
2ND & 1
OPP 47
+5
97.3%
Christian Clark run for 5 yds to the UTEP 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:38
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+6
97.3%
Jerrick Gibson run for 6 yds to the UTEP 36Similar
Q2 10:09
2ND & 4
OPP 36
0
97.2%
Jerrick Gibson run for no gain to the UTEP 36Similar
Q2 9:38
3RD & 4
OPP 36
+2
97.1%
Christian Clark run for 2 yds to the UTEP 34Similar
Q2 8:59
4TH & 2
OPP 34
0
96.9%
Arch Manning pass incomplete to Parker LivingstoneSimilar
Q2 8:59
4TH & 2
OPP 34
0
96.9%
Arch Manning pass incomplete to Parker LivingstoneSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 8INT
2 plays · 33 yds · 0:293% → 4%
Q2 8:44
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+33
96.8%
Malachi Nelson pass complete to Judah Ezinwa for 33 yds to the TEX 33 for a 1ST down Texas Penalty, Defensive Holding (Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:15
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-16
96.3%
Malachi Nelson pass intercepted Jelani McDonald return for 16 yds to the TEX 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:2097% → 97%
Q2 8:10
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
96.9%
Arch Manning pass incomplete to Jordan WashingtonSimilar
Q2 8:07
2ND & 10
OWN 38
0
96.9%
Arch Manning pass incomplete to Ryan WingoSimilar
Q2 8:00
3RD & 10
OWN 38
0
96.8%
Arch Manning pass incomplete to Jack EndriesSimilar
Q2 7:50
4TH & 10
OWN 38
+4
96.6%
Jack Bouwmeester punt for 48 yds , Eric Willis III returns for 4 yds to the UTEP 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:403% → 3%
Q2 7:37
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+2
96.8%
Ashten Emory run for 2 yds to the UTEP 20Similar
Q2 6:51
2ND & 8
OWN 20
+4
96.7%
Malachi Nelson pass complete to Eric Willis III for 4 yds to the UTEP 24Similar
Q2 6:40
3RD & 4
OWN 24
+3
96.7%
Malachi Nelson pass complete to Kenny Odom for 3 yds to the UTEP 27Similar
Q2 5:57
4TH & 1
OWN 27
+65
96.6%
Noah Botsford punt for 58 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TEX 15 Texas Penalty, Illegal Block (Warren Roberson) to the TEX 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 12 yds · 1:4496% → 96%
Q2 5:49
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+10
96.4%
Jerrick Gibson run for 10 yds to the TEX 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:24
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+1
96.4%
Jerrick Gibson run for 1 yd to the TEX 19Similar
Q2 4:56
2ND & 9
OWN 19
+1
96.3%
Jerrick Gibson run for 1 yd to the TEX 20Similar
Q2 4:14
3RD & 8
OWN 20
0
96.0%
Arch Manning pass incomplete to Emaree WinstonSimilar
Q2 4:05
4TH & 8
OWN 20
0
95.8%
Jack Bouwmeester punt for 58 yds, fair catch by Eric Willis III at the UTEP 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 12FG
8 plays · 56 yds · 2:014% → 6%
Q2 3:56
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+5
96.2%
Malachi Nelson pass complete to Kenny Odom for 5 yds to the UTEP 27Similar
Q2 3:25
2ND & 5
OWN 27
+30
96.0%
Hahsaun Wilson run for 30 yds to the TEX 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:57
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+14
95.5%
Malachi Nelson pass complete to Toric Goins Jr. for 14 yds to the TEX 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:42
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-5
95.1%
Malachi Nelson sacked by Zina Umeozulu for a loss of 5 yards to the TEX 34Similar
Q2 2:07
2ND & 15
OPP 34
0
95.3%
Malachi Nelson pass incomplete to Kenny OdomSimilar
Q2 2:00
3RD & 15
OPP 34
+12
95.5%
Malachi Nelson pass complete to Toric Goins Jr. for 12 yds to the TEX 22Similar
Q2 1:55
4TH & 3
OPP 22
+39
94.0%
Carlos Arreola 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:1794% → 94%
Q2 1:44
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
94.1%
Arch Manning pass incomplete to Christian ClarkSimilar
Q2 1:36
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+5
94.0%
Christian Clark run for 5 yds to the TEX 27Similar
Q2 1:33
3RD & 5
OWN 27
0
94.0%
Arch Manning pass incomplete to Kaliq LockettSimilar
Q2 1:27
4TH & 5
OWN 27
0
93.6%
Jack Bouwmeester punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Eric Willis III at the UTEP 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 14PUNT
6 plays · 1 yds · 0:176% → 5%
Q2 1:11
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
94.5%
Malachi Nelson pass complete to Trevon Tate for 4 yds to the UTEP 36Similar
Q2 1:05
2ND & 6
OWN 36
0
94.3%
Malachi Nelson pass incomplete to Eric Willis IIISimilar
Q2 1:00
3RD & 6
OWN 36
-3
94.5%
Hahsaun Wilson run for a loss of 3 yards to the UTEP 33Similar
Q2 0:54
4TH & 9
OWN 33
+32
95.0%
Noah Botsford punt for 32 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TEX 35 for a 1ST down UTEP Penalty, Personal Foul (Chace Biddle) to the TEX 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:54
4TH & 9
OWN 33
+7
95.0%
Noah Botsford punt for 22 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TEX 45 for a 1ST down UTEP Penalty, Personal Foul (Chace Biddle) to the UTEP 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 15TD
9 plays · 40 yds · 0:4695% → 97%
Q2 0:47
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+10
94.7%
Arch Manning run for 10 yds to the UTEP 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:36
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+8
94.8%
Jerrick Gibson run for 8 yds to the UTEP 22Similar
Q2 0:24
2ND & 2
OPP 22
-1
94.7%
Arch Manning run for a loss of 1 yard to the UTEP 23Similar
Q2 0:18
3RD & 3
OPP 23
+7
94.6%
Jerrick Gibson run for 7 yds to the UTEP 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:13
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
94.9%
Arch Manning pass incomplete to Jordan WashingtonSimilar
Q2 0:06
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+11
94.8%
Arch Manning pass complete to Jordan Washington for 11 yds to the UTEP 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
96.6%
Arch Manning run for 5 yds for a TD (Mason Shipley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 16END OF HALF
2 plays · 2 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
96.7%
Ashten Emory run for 2 yds to the UTEP 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 17PUNT
8 plays · 11 yds · 2:054% → 4%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
96.1%
Malachi Nelson pass complete to Kenny Odom for no gain to the UTEP 25Similar
Q3 14:14
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+8
96.0%
Hahsaun Wilson run for 8 yds to the UTEP 33Similar
Q3 13:49
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+2
95.9%
Malachi Nelson pass complete to Kenny Odom for 2 yds to the UTEP 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:31
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
95.7%
Malachi Nelson pass incomplete to Toric Goins Jr.Similar
Q3 13:22
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+1
95.8%
Hahsaun Wilson run for 1 yd to the UTEP 36Similar
Q3 13:03
3RD & 9
OWN 36
0
95.8%
Malachi Nelson pass incomplete to Eric Willis IIISimilar
Q3 12:45
4TH & 9
OWN 36
+49
96.0%
Noah Botsford punt for 51 yds , Ryan Niblett returns for 49 yds to the UTEP 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 18FG
11 plays · 25 yds · 4:4896% → 97%
Q3 12:38
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+4
96.3%
Arch Manning run for 4 yds to the UTEP 34Similar
Q3 12:11
2ND & 6
OPP 34
-5
96.2%
PENALTY TEX False Start (Campbell,DJ) 5 yards from UTE34 to UTE39. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 11:36
2ND & 11
OPP 39
+3
96.2%
James Simon run for 3 yds to the UTEP 36Similar
Q3 11:07
3RD & 8
OPP 36
+6
95.9%
(11:07) No Huddle-Shotgun Manning,Arch pass complete short left to Endries,Jack caught at UTE31, for 6 yards to the UTE30 QB hurried by Ezeani,Udoka (Campbell,Neil) PENALTY TEX Illegal Block in Back offsetting UTE Roughing The Passer offsetting. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 10:57
3RD & 8
OPP 36
+10
95.9%
Arch Manning run for 10 yds to the UTEP 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:20
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+8
96.0%
Arch Manning pass complete to James Simon for 8 yds to the UTEP 18Similar
Q3 9:46
2ND & 2
OPP 18
+10
96.0%
James Simon run for 10 yds to the UTEP 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-5
95.9%
James Simon run for a loss of 5 yards to the UTEP 13Similar
Q3 8:39
2ND & GOAL
OPP 13
0
95.9%
James Simon run for no gain to the UTEP 13Similar
Q3 7:54
3RD & GOAL
OPP 13
0
95.5%
Texas Penalty, Offensive Holding (Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 7:50
4TH & GOAL
OPP 13
+31
96.6%
Mason Shipley 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 19INT
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:024% → 4%
Q3 7:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
96.2%
Hahsaun Wilson run for 1 yd to the UTEP 26Similar
Q3 7:16
2ND & 9
OWN 26
-1
96.2%
Malachi Nelson sacked by Hero Kanu for a loss of 1 yard to the UTEP 25Similar
Q3 6:41
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+15
96.2%
Texas Penalty, UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (15 Yards) to the UTEP 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 20FG
11 plays · 37 yds · 4:4597% → 98%
Q3 6:26
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+3
97.0%
James Simon run for 3 yds to the UTEP 46Similar
Q3 5:51
2ND & 7
OPP 46
+4
97.0%
James Simon run for 4 yds to the UTEP 42Similar
Q3 5:12
3RD & 3
OPP 42
+4
96.8%
Arch Manning pass complete to Ryan Niblett for 4 yds to the UTEP 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:43
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+15
97.0%
Arch Manning pass complete to Ryan Wingo for 15 yds to the UTEP 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:17
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
96.5%
Arch Manning run for no gain to the UTEP 23Similar
Q3 3:43
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+13
96.5%
James Simon run for 13 yds to the UTEP 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
-3
96.4%
James Simon run for a loss of 3 yards to the UTEP 13Similar
Q3 2:18
2ND & GOAL
OPP 13
+1
97.3%
Arch Manning pass complete to Parker Livingstone for 1 yd to the UTEP 12Similar
Q3 1:45
3RD & GOAL
OPP 12
0
97.2%
Arch Manning pass incomplete to Christian ClarkSimilar
Q3 1:41
4TH & GOAL
OPP 12
+30
97.7%
Mason Shipley 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 21DOWNS
8 plays · 22 yds · 1:583% → 3%
Q3 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
97.3%
Ashten Emory run for a loss of 1 yard to the UTEP 24Similar
Q3 0:52
2ND & 11
OWN 24
0
97.5%
Malachi Nelson pass incomplete to Eric Willis IIISimilar
Q3 0:40
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+16
97.5%
Malachi Nelson pass complete to Ashten Emory for 1 yd to the UTEP 25 for a 1ST down Texas Penalty, Block Below Waist (Jaylon Guilbeau) to the UTEP 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:27
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
97.2%
Malachi Nelson pass incomplete to Toric Goins Jr.Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+5
97.2%
Malachi Nelson pass complete to Toric Goins Jr. for 5 yds to the UTEP 45Similar
Q4 14:54
3RD & 5
OWN 45
+2
97.2%
Ashten Emory run for 2 yds to the UTEP 47Similar
Q4 14:32
4TH & 3
OWN 47
0
97.4%
Malachi Nelson pass incomplete to Marcus TorresSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 22TD
11 plays · 47 yds · 3:3498% → 100%
Q4 14:26
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+2
98.2%
James Simon run for 2 yds to the UTEP 45Similar
Q4 13:53
2ND & 8
OPP 45
+14
99.1%
Arch Manning run for 14 yds to the UTEP 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:21
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+1
99.2%
James Simon run for 1 yd to the UTEP 30Similar
Q4 12:48
2ND & 9
OPP 30
+5
99.2%
James Simon run for 5 yds to the UTEP 25Similar
Q4 12:23
3RD & 4
OPP 25
+6
99.2%
James Simon run for 6 yds to the UTEP 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:57
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+8
99.2%
James Simon run for 8 yds to the UTEP 11Similar
Q4 11:29
2ND & 2
OPP 11
+2
99.2%
James Simon run for 2 yds to the UTEP 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+5
99.2%
(11:10) No Huddle-Shotgun Manning,Arch pass complete short right to Simon,James caught at UTE09, for 1 yard to the UTE08 (Content,Justin) PENALTY UTE Illegal Substitution 5 yards from UTE09 to UTE04. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 10:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
99.7%
Arch Manning pass complete to Ryan Wingo for 4 yds for a TD (Mason Shipley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 23DOWNS
10 plays · 55 yds · 2:311% → 1%
Q4 10:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+23
99.3%
Malachi Nelson pass complete to Toric Goins Jr. for 23 yds to the UTEP 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:16
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+3
99.3%
Malachi Nelson run for 3 yds to the TEX 49Similar
Q4 9:46
2ND & 7
OPP 49
+6
99.3%
Malachi Nelson pass complete to Marcus Torres for 6 yds to the TEX 43Similar
Q4 9:26
3RD & 1
OPP 43
+4
99.3%
Malachi Nelson pass complete to Trevon Tate for 4 yds to the TEX 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:10
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+11
99.3%
(09:15) No Huddle-Shotgun Nelson,Malachi pass incomplete deep left to Willis III,Eric thrown to TEX08 broken up by McDonald,Jelani, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY TEX Pass Interference (Guilbeau,Jaylon) 11 yard from TEX39 to TEX28, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 8:23
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+4
99.1%
Eric Willis III run for 4 yds to the TEX 24Similar
Q4 8:18
2ND & 6
OPP 24
0
99.2%
Malachi Nelson pass incomplete to Trevon TateSimilar
Q4 8:18
3RD & 6
OPP 24
0
99.2%
Malachi Nelson pass incomplete to Marcus TorresSimilar
Q4 8:11
4TH & 6
OPP 24
+4
99.3%
Malachi Nelson pass complete to Ashten Emory for 4 yds to the TEX 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 24PUNT
7 plays · 14 yds · 3:07100% → 100%
Q4 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
99.7%
Jerrick Gibson run for 2 yds to the TEX 22Similar
Q4 7:30
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+3
99.7%
Jerrick Gibson run for 3 yds to the TEX 25Similar
Q4 6:55
3RD & 5
OWN 25
+13
99.7%
Arch Manning pass complete to Ryan Wingo for 13 yds to the TEX 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:21
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+1
99.7%
James Simon run for 1 yd to the TEX 39Similar
Q4 5:40
2ND & 9
OWN 39
-5
99.8%
Ryan Wingo run for a loss of 5 yards to the TEX 34Similar
Q4 5:05
3RD & 14
OWN 34
0
99.7%
Arch Manning pass incomplete to Christian ClarkSimilar
Q4 4:53
4TH & 14
OWN 34
+1
99.7%
Jack Bouwmeester punt for 44 yds , Eric Willis III returns for 1 yd to the UTEP 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 25TD
9 plays · 87 yds · 2:431% → 3%
Q4 4:40
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+12
99.5%
Malachi Nelson pass complete to Jaylan Brown for 12 yds to the UTEP 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
99.5%
(04:29) No Huddle-Shotgun Nelson,Malachi sacked for loss of 6 yards to the UTE19 (Jackson,Lance) PENALTY TEX Face Mask (Jackson,Lance) 15 yards from UTE25 to UTE40, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 4:01
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
99.5%
Malachi Nelson pass complete to Trevon Tate for 5 yds to the UTEP 45Similar
Q4 3:40
2ND & 5
OWN 45
+43
99.5%
Malachi Nelson pass complete to Trevon Tate for 43 yds to the TEX 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:09
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+5
99.4%
Malachi Nelson pass complete to Trevon Tate for 5 yds to the TEX 7Similar
Q4 2:58
2ND & 5
OPP 7
+2
99.4%
Hahsaun Wilson run for 2 yds to the TEX 5Similar
Q4 2:13
3RD & 3
OPP 5
+3
99.4%
Shay Smith run for 3 yds to the TEX 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
97.5%
Shay Smith run for 2 yds for a TD (Carlos Arreola KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 26END OF GAME
5 plays · 30 yds · 1:50100% → 100%
Q4 1:50
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+14
99.5%
Matthew Caldwell run for 14 yds to the UTEP 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:14
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+9
99.5%
James Simon run for 9 yds to the UTEP 24Similar
Q4 0:32
2ND & 1
OPP 24
+8
99.5%
James Simon run for 8 yds to the UTEP 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 16
-1
99.5%
(00:30) Kneel down by Texas at UTE17 for loss of 1 yard.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:01
Arch Manning run for 5 yds for a TD (Mason Shipley KICK)
+2
TD · Q4 1:57
Shay Smith run for 2 yds for a TD (Carlos Arreola KICK)
-1.8
KEY PLAY · Q4 1:50
Matthew Caldwell run for 14 yds to the UTEP 33 for a 1ST down
+1.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com