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Win probability · TEM
modelTEM aheadOU aheadconfidence bandkey playTEM scoreOU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 10:48 · Dante Atton punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Isaiah Sategna III at the TEM 45
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 9:36: Jovantae Barnes 3 Yd Run (Jaren Kanak Pass to Jacob Ulrich for Two-Point Conversion) — OU win probability +0.5 pts (now 94%) (top driver: OU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 12:11: Tory Blaylock run for 6 yds for a TD (Tate Sandell KICK) — OU win probability +2.5 pts (now 95%) (top driver: OU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 10:05: Tory Blaylock run for 18 yds for a TD (Tate Sandell KICK) — OU win probability +2.4 pts (now 97%) (top driver: OU has the ball).
- FG · Q2 2:33: Carl Hardin 34 yd FG GOOD — TEM win probability +3.9 pts (now 6%) (top driver: TEM has the ball).
- FG · Q2 0:27: Tate Sandell 29 yd FG GOOD — OU win probability +1.4 pts (now 98%) (top driver: OU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
TEM made the numbers' call on 12 of 13OU made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
- Q1 13:36TEM 4th & 9 at TEM 26, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 8.2% before the snapGo for it8.1%−0.130% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call8.2%average punt
- Q1 7:43TEM 4th & 4 at TEM 31, down 8Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.2% before the snapGo for it9.2%−0.148% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call9.3%average punt
- Q1 4:05OU 4th & 19 at TEM 34, up 8Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 89.7% before the snapGo for it89.4%−0.311% to convertField goalTheir call89.7%47% to makePunt89.6%−0.1average punt
- Q1 1:45TEM 4th & 11 at TEM 42, down 11Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.0% before the snapGo for it10.0%−0.226% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call10.2%average punt
- Q2 10:48TEM 4th & 4 at TEM 7, down 18Close callPunted · 8.0% before the snapGo for it7.9%45% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call7.8%−<0.1average punt
- Q2 8:52TEM 4th & 3 at TEM 32, down 25Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.5% before the snapGo for it3.6%−0.252% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call3.8%average punt
- Q2 7:16OU 4th & 9 at OU 46, up 25Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.5% before the snapGo for it96.4%−0.132% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call96.5%average punt
- Q2 3:42TEM 4th & 19 at OU 49, down 25Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.6% before the snapGo for it2.0%−0.711% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.8%average punt
- Q2 2:33TEM 4th & 13 at OU 16, down 25Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 2.8% before the snapGo for it1.8%−0.718% to convertField goalTheir call2.5%81% to makePunt0.1%−2.4average punt
- Q2 0:27OU 4th & 7 at TEM 11, up 22Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 95.2% before the snapGo for it94.8%−0.532% to convertField goalTheir call95.3%87% to makePunt93.3%−2.0average punt
- Q3 13:16OU 4th & 2 at OU 33, up 25Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.9% before the snapGo for it98.1%−<0.157% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call98.1%average punt
- Q3 12:22TEM 4th & 11 at TEM 14, down 25Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.5% before the snapGo for it0.9%−1.125% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.0%average punt
- Q3 11:24OU 4th & 2 at OU 48, up 25Close callPunted · 98.3% before the snapGo for it98.5%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call98.2%−0.3average punt
- Q3 9:17TEM 4th & 15 at TEM 30, down 25Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.9% before the snapGo for it0.4%−0.716% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.2%average punt
- Q3 5:47TEM 4th & 6 at TEM 29, down 32Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.8% before the snapGo for it0.8%−<0.139% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.9%average punt
- Q3 4:13TEM 4th & 6 at TEM 29, down 39Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.4% before the snapGo for it0.4%−<0.139% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.5%average punt
- Q3 1:36OU 4th & 16 at TEM 34, up 39Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.4% before the snapGo for it99.3%−0.116% to convertField goalTheir call99.4%47% to makePunt99.3%−0.1average punt
- Q4 10:08TEM 4th & 16 at OU 39, down 39Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snapGo for it0.1%−0.116% to convertField goal0.2%−<0.136% to makePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
- Q4 8:37OU 4th & 9 at OU 9, up 39Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.7% before the snapGo for it99.6%−0.129% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.7%average punt
- Q4 6:40TEM 4th & 8 at TEM 45, down 39Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%−<0.134% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
OU made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
- Q1 9:36OU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryClose callWent for two · convertedKick90.6%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call90.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 12:11OU Touchdown, up 17 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call91.8%97% to makeGo for two91.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 10:05OU Touchdown, up 24 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call94.0%97% to makeGo for two94.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 7:57OU Touchdown, up 31 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.9%97% to makeGo for two98.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 5:04OU Touchdown, up 38 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.5%97% to makeGo for two99.5%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartTEMDrive 1PUNT5 plays · 1 yds · 1:145% → 5%
Q1 13:36
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
5.4%
Dante Atton punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Isaiah Sategna III at the OU 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 2TD10 plays · 67 yds · 3:4495% → 94%
Q1 12:51
2ND & 2
OWN 41
+6
5.6%
John Mateer pass complete to Keontez Lewis for 6 yds to the OU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:24
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+20
5.7%
John Mateer pass complete to Jaren Kanak for 20 yds to the TEM 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:36
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+7
6.5%
John Mateer pass complete to Keontez Lewis for 7 yds Keontez Lewis fumbled, recovered by OUSimilar
Q1 9:36
3RD & 19
OPP 32
+23
6.6%
John Mateer pass complete to Jaren Kanak for 23 yds to the TEM 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:36
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
5.9%
Jovantae Barnes 3 Yd Run (Jaren Kanak Pass to Jacob Ulrich for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 3PUNT5 plays · 6 yds · 1:386% → 6%
Q1 7:43
4TH & 4
OWN 31
+10
6.4%
Dante Atton punt for 33 yds , Isaiah Sategna III returns for 10 yds to the OU 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 4FG10 plays · 20 yds · 3:2994% → 93%
Q1 7:34
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+15
6.3%
John Mateer pass complete to Zion Kearney for 15 yds to the TEM 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:31
3RD & 8
OPP 37
+12
6.5%
John Mateer pass complete to Jaren Kanak for 12 yds to the TEM 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:42
2ND & 2
OPP 17
-5
6.6%
PENALTY OKL False Start (Kearney,Zion) 5 yards from TEM17 to TEM22. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 5:18
2ND & 7
OPP 22
-10
6.7%
John Mateer sacked by Charles Calhoun for a loss of 10 yards to the TEM 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 5PUNT8 plays · 17 yds · 2:167% → 7%
Q1 3:17
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+12
6.9%
Evan Simon pass complete to Kajiya Hollawayne for 12 yds to the TEM 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:54
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+9
7.3%
Evan Simon pass complete to Kajiya Hollawayne for 9 yds to the OU 48Similar
Q1 2:27
3RD & 1
OPP 48
-10
7.5%
Evan Simon sacked by Reggie Powers III for a loss of 10 yards to the TEM 42Similar
Q1 1:45
4TH & 11
OWN 42
0
7.2%
Dante Atton punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Isaiah Sategna III at the OU 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 6TD11 plays · 89 yds · 4:2392% → 95%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+13
7.7%
John Mateer pass complete to Keontez Lewis for 13 yds to the OU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+5
7.7%
John Mateer pass complete to Isaiah Sategna III for 5 yds to the OU 39Similar
Q2 13:29
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+20
7.4%
John Mateer pass complete to Isaiah Sategna III for 20 yds to the TEM 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:59
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+16
7.5%
John Mateer pass complete to Zion Kearney for 16 yds to the TEM 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 7PUNT6 plays · 6 yds · 1:086% → 6%
OUDrive 8TD5 plays · 45 yds · 0:3895% → 97%
Q2 10:31
3RD & 10
OPP 45
+10
5.0%
(10:39) No Huddle-Shotgun Mateer,John pass incomplete short right to Robinson,Xavier thrown to TEM40 PENALTY TEM Holding (Osueke,Ben) 10 yards from TEM45 to TEM35, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:14
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+17
5.0%
John Mateer pass complete to Isaiah Sategna III for 17 yds to the TEM 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 9PUNT5 plays · 7 yds · 1:033% → 2%
Q2 8:52
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
2.4%
Dante Atton punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Isaiah Sategna III at the OU 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 10PUNT5 plays · 21 yds · 1:1597% → 97%
Q2 8:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+20
2.6%
John Mateer pass complete to Deion Burks for 20 yds to the OU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 11PUNT6 plays · 35 yds · 3:222% → 2%
OUDrive 12INT1 play · 0 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q2 3:36
1ST & 10
OWN 9
0
2.3%
John Mateer pass intercepted Ty Davis return for no gain to the OU 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 13FG4 plays · -3 yds · 0:572% → 6%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 14FG12 plays · 54 yds · 2:0096% → 98%
Q2 1:01
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+13
3.0%
John Mateer pass complete to Isaiah Sategna III for 13 yds to the TEM 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 15END OF HALF2 plays · -1 yds · 0:001% → 1%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 16PUNT5 plays · 8 yds · 1:3098% → 98%
TEMDrive 17PUNT4 plays · -1 yds · 0:461% → 1%
Q3 12:22
4TH & 11
OWN 14
0
1.2%
Dante Atton punt for 46 yds , Isaiah Sategna III returns for no gain to the OU 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 18PUNT4 plays · 8 yds · 0:5499% → 99%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 19PUNT5 plays · 10 yds · 1:501% → 1%
Q3 10:03
3RD & 11
OWN 34
-10
1.1%
(10:03) No Huddle-Shotgun Simon,Evan pass complete short middle to Worthy,Terrez caught at TEM40, for 9 yards to the TEM43 (Boganowski,Michael) PENALTY TEM Holding (Hills,Giakoby) 10 yards from TEM34 to TEM24. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:17
4TH & 15
OWN 30
0
0.7%
Dante Atton punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Isaiah Sategna III at the OU 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 20TD6 plays · 65 yds · 0:5499% → 99%
Q3 8:51
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+28
1.1%
John Mateer pass complete to Isaiah Sategna III for 28 yds to the TEM 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:25
3RD & 10
OPP 37
+31
1.0%
John Mateer pass complete to Jaren Kanak for 31 yds to the TEM 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:57
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
0.7%
John Mateer pass complete to Xavier Robinson for 6 yds for a TD (Tate Sandell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 21PUNT5 plays · 4 yds · 1:551% → 1%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 22TD2 plays · 76 yds · 0:3399% → 99%
TEMDrive 23PUNT5 plays · 4 yds · 0:391% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 24MISSED FG6 plays · 14 yds · 2:25100% → 99%
Q3 2:19
3RD & 9
OPP 27
-7
0.5%
Michael Hawkins Jr. sacked by Sekou Kromah for a loss of 7 yards to the TEM 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 25PUNT13 plays · 27 yds · 6:200% → 0%
Q3 0:00
3RD & 4
OWN 40
+5
0.3%
Evan Simon pass complete to Colin Chase for 5 yds to the TEM 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:12
3RD & 8
OPP 42
+9
0.2%
Evan Simon pass complete to JoJo Bermudez for 9 yds to the OU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:53
3RD & 9
OPP 32
-7
0.2%
Evan Simon sacked by Wyatt Gilmore for a loss of 7 yards to the OU 39 Evan Simon fumbled, recovered by TEM Jackson Pruitt , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q4 10:08
4TH & 16
OPP 39
0
0.1%
Dante Atton punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Isaiah Sategna III at the OU 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 26PUNT4 plays · 1 yds · 1:26100% → 100%
Q4 8:37
4TH & 9
OWN 9
+10
0.3%
Grayson Miller punt for 58 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TEM 43 , JoJo Bermudez returns for 10 yds to the TEM 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 27PUNT4 plays · 2 yds · 0:570% → 0%
OUDrive 28END OF GAME11 plays · 67 yds · 6:29100% → 100%
Q4 5:50
2ND & 5
OWN 21
+5
0.2%
Michael Hawkins Jr. pass complete to Elijah Thomas for 5 yds to the OU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:51
3RD & 7
OWN 29
+15
0.1%
(03:51) No Huddle-Shotgun Hawkins Jr.,Michael pass incomplete deep left to Thomas,Elijah thrown to TEM20 PENALTY TEM Pass Interference (Kulp,Earl) 15 yards from OKL29 to OKL44, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 1:24
2ND & 9
OPP 37
-4
0.1%
Michael Hawkins Jr. run for a loss of 4 yards to the TEM 41 Michael Hawkins Jr. fumbled, recovered by OU Michael Hawkins Jr.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FG · Q2 2:33
Carl Hardin 34 yd FG GOOD
+3.9
TD · Q2 12:11
Tory Blaylock run for 6 yds for a TD (Tate Sandell KICK)
-2.5
TD · Q2 10:05
Tory Blaylock run for 18 yds for a TD (Tate Sandell KICK)
-2.4