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ALCN

Alcorn State 0 at Mississippi State 63

MSST
2025 · Week 3 · Sep 13, 2025 · Davis Wade Stadium
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Win probability · MSST
modelMSST aheadALCN aheadconfidence bandkey playMSST scoreALCN score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 11:23 · Fluff Bothwell run for 3 yds to the MSST 44 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+49.5+24.80−24.8−49.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 57Pregame prior+43.7Home team on offense+17.8Score differential+12.2Blowout margin+3.7Garbage-time factor+5.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+2.8
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 9:15: Fluff Bothwell run for 3 yds for a TD (Kyle Ferrie KICK) — MSST win probability +0.1 pts (now 99%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 8:02: Kamario Taylor pass complete to Brenen Thompson for 42 yds for a TD (Kyle Ferrie KICK) — MSST win probability +0.1 pts (now 99%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  3. TD · Q1 5:12: Blake Shapen run for 6 yds for a TD (Kyle Ferrie KICK) — MSST win probability +0.1 pts (now 99%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 7:20: Blake Shapen pass complete to Anthony Evans III for 22 yds for a TD (Kyle Ferrie KICK) — MSST win probability +0.1 pts (now 100%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  5. TD · Q2 3:50: Fluff Bothwell run for 25 yds for a TD (Kyle Ferrie KICK) — MSST win probability +0.1 pts (now 100%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MSST made the numbers' call on 3 of 3ALCN made the numbers' call on 8 of 9
  1. Q1 11:40ALCN 4th & 14 at ALCN 30, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.1%−0.1
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.2%
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:10ALCN 4th & 7 at ALCN 29, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.1%−<0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.1%
    average punt
  3. Q2 13:33ALCN 4th & 6 at MSST 19, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.7%−<0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    0.7%
    77% to make
    Punt
    0.3%−0.4
    average punt
  4. Q2 11:23MSST 4th & 1 at MSST 41, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    99.3%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 5:53ALCN 4th & 18 at ALCN 17, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−0.2
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.4%
    average punt
  6. Q2 4:56MSST 4th & 1 at ALCN 35, up 35
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    99.4%−0.2
    45% to make
    Punt
    99.4%−0.2
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:38ALCN 4th & 1 at ALCN 48, down 42
    Close callPunted · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%−0.1
    average punt
  8. Q3 8:03ALCN 4th & 19 at ALCN 16, down 42
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    -0.0%−0.2
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  9. Q3 10:00MSST 4th & 8 at MSST 36, up 49
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%
    average punt
  10. Q3 1:56ALCN 4th & 7 at ALCN 44, down 49
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  11. Q4 7:29ALCN 4th & 10 at ALCN 25, down 56
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    -0.0%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  12. Q4 0:45ALCN 4th & 7 at ALCN 30, down 63
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−<0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.0%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MSST made the numbers' call on 8 of 8
  1. Q1 14:43MSST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 9:15MSST Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 8:02MSST Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q1 5:12MSST Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 7:20MSST Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 3:50MSST Touchdown, up 41 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 9:55MSST Touchdown, up 55 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 3:30MSST Touchdown, up 62 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MSSTDrive 1TD
3 plays · 75 yds · 0:1199% → 99%
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.4%
Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Brenen ThompsonSimilar
Q1 14:43
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+75
99.4%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Jordan Mosley for 75 yds for a TD (Kyle Ferrie KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALCNDrive 2PUNT
10 plays · 14 yds · 2:511% → 1%
Q1 14:31
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+3
99.3%
Jacorian Sewell run for 3 yds to the ALCN 19Similar
Q1 13:55
2ND & 7
OWN 19
+6
99.3%
Jaylon Tolbert pass complete to Omarion Blakes for 6 yds to the ALCN 25Similar
Q1 13:12
3RD & 1
OWN 25
+9
99.3%
Reggie Davis run for 9 yds to the ALCN 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:37
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+1
99.3%
Reggie Davis run for 1 yd to the ALCN 35Similar
Q1 11:59
2ND & 9
OWN 35
0
99.2%
Jaylon Tolbert pass incomplete to Jarvis RushSimilar
Q1 11:56
3RD & 9
OWN 35
0
99.2%
Jaylon Tolbert pass incomplete to Omarion BlakesSimilar
Q1 11:55
4TH & 9
OWN 35
-5
99.2%
PENALTY ASU False Start (Barnes,Brent) 5 yards from ASU35 to ASU30. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 11:40
4TH & 14
OWN 30
+41
99.2%
Demetrion Duvall punt for 40 yds , Anthony Evans III returns for 41 yds to the ALCN 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 3TD
8 plays · 29 yds · 2:1999% → 99%
Q1 11:34
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+6
99.2%
Fluff Bothwell run for 6 yds to the ALCN 23Similar
Q1 11:15
2ND & 4
OPP 23
+6
99.2%
Fluff Bothwell run for 6 yds to the ALCN 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:50
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+8
99.2%
Fluff Bothwell run for 8 yds to the ALCN 9Similar
Q1 10:32
2ND & 2
OPP 9
+7
99.2%
Fluff Bothwell run for 7 yds to the ALCN 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-5
99.2%
(10:12) PENALTY MSU False Start 5 yards from ASU02 to ASU07. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 9:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
-10
99.2%
(09:44) Shotgun Shapen,Blake pass complete short middle to Thompson,Brenen caught at ASU11, for 7 yards to the ASU00 TOUCHDOWN nullified by penalty, clock 09:41 PENALTY MSU Holding (West,Sam) 10 yards from ASU07 to ASU17. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 9:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 17
+14
99.1%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Fluff Bothwell for 14 yds to the ALCN 3Similar
Q1 9:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
99.2%
Fluff Bothwell run for 3 yds for a TD (Kyle Ferrie KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALCNDrive 4INT
3 plays · 12 yds · 0:321% → 1%
Q1 9:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
99.2%
Jacorian Sewell run for 12 yds to the ALCN 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:36
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-15
99.1%
Alcorn State Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Jarvis Rush) to the MSST 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 5TD
2 plays · 76 yds · 0:2399% → 99%
Q1 8:25
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+34
99.2%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Anthony Evans III for 34 yds to the ALCN 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:02
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+42
99.3%
Kamario Taylor pass complete to Brenen Thompson for 42 yds for a TD (Kyle Ferrie KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALCNDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:371% → 1%
Q1 7:47
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+3
99.3%
Jacorian Sewell run for 3 yds to the ALCN 29Similar
Q1 7:03
2ND & 7
OWN 29
0
99.3%
Jaylon Tolbert run for no gain to the ALCN 29Similar
Q1 6:25
3RD & 7
OWN 29
0
99.3%
Jaylon Tolbert pass incomplete to Tyran WarrenSimilar
Q1 6:10
4TH & 7
OWN 29
+43
99.2%
Demetrion Duvall punt for 41 yds , Anthony Evans III returns for 43 yds to the ALCN 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 7TD
3 plays · 27 yds · 0:3799% → 99%
Q1 5:49
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+5
99.3%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Max Reese for 5 yds to the ALCN 22Similar
Q1 5:36
2ND & 5
OPP 22
+16
99.3%
Davon Booth run for 16 yds to the ALCN 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
99.4%
Blake Shapen run for 6 yds for a TD (Kyle Ferrie KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALCNDrive 8MISSED FG
16 plays · 56 yds · 6:321% → 1%
Q1 5:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
99.5%
Tylan Citizen run for 1 yd to the ALCN 26Similar
Q1 4:35
2ND & 9
OWN 26
-1
99.5%
Tylan Citizen run for a loss of 1 yard to the ALCN 25Similar
Q1 3:58
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+5
99.5%
(04:02) No Huddle-Shotgun Tolbert,Jaylon pass incomplete short right to Kaho,Jamar thrown to ASU30 broken up by Williams,Jayven PENALTY MSU Pass Interference (Williams,Jayven) 5 yards from ASU25 to ASU30, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 3:52
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
99.5%
Tylan Citizen run for 1 yd to the ALCN 31Similar
Q1 3:10
2ND & 9
OWN 31
+4
99.5%
Tylan Citizen run for 4 yds to the ALCN 35Similar
Q1 2:26
3RD & 5
OWN 35
+10
99.5%
Jaylon Tolbert pass complete to Elijah Griffin for 10 yds to the ALCN 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:49
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
99.5%
(01:53) No Huddle-Shotgun Sewell,Jacorian rush middle for 9 yards gain to the MSU46 (Smith,Jalen; Manning,Jahron) PENALTY MSU Offside (Jennings,Branden) 5 yards from ASU45 to ASU50. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 1:21
1ST & 5
50
+4
99.5%
Jaylon Tolbert pass complete to Kole Williams for 4 yds to the MSST 46Similar
Q1 0:52
2ND & 1
OPP 46
+2
99.5%
Jacorian Sewell run for 2 yds to the MSST 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+21
99.5%
Jaylon Tolbert pass complete to Omarion Blakes for 21 yds to the MSST 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+3
99.5%
Jacorian Sewell run for 3 yds to the MSST 20Similar
Q2 14:19
2ND & 7
OPP 20
0
99.5%
Jaylon Tolbert pass incomplete to Tyran WarrenSimilar
Q2 14:19
3RD & 7
OPP 20
-5
99.5%
PENALTY ASU Illegal Substitution 5 yards from MSU20 to MSU25. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:07
3RD & 12
OPP 25
+6
99.6%
Jaylon Tolbert pass complete to Jacorian Sewell for 6 yds to the MSST 19Similar
Q2 13:33
4TH & 6
OPP 19
+36
99.4%
Grandin Willcox 36 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 9INT
11 plays · 48 yds · 3:49100% → 100%
Q2 13:26
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
99.5%
Fluff Bothwell run for 6 yds to the MSST 26Similar
Q2 13:11
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+6
99.6%
Fluff Bothwell run for 6 yds to the MSST 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:54
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
99.6%
Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Fluff BothwellSimilar
Q2 12:48
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+6
99.6%
Fluff Bothwell run for 6 yds to the MSST 38Similar
Q2 12:11
3RD & 4
OWN 38
+3
99.6%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Anthony Evans III for 3 yds to the MSST 41Similar
Q2 11:23
4TH & 1
OWN 41
+3
99.5%
Fluff Bothwell run for 3 yds to the MSST 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:02
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+13
99.6%
Fluff Bothwell run for 13 yds to the ALCN 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:38
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+11
99.6%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Brenen Thompson for 11 yds to the ALCN 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:05
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
99.6%
Blake Shapen run for no gain to the ALCN 32Similar
Q2 9:37
2ND & 10
OPP 32
-14
99.6%
Blake Shapen pass intercepted Bakari McCall return for 14 yds to the ALCN 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALCNDrive 10FUMBLE
1 play · 10 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q2 9:27
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+10
99.6%
Tylan Citizen run for 10 yds to the ALCN 29 Tylan Citizen fumbled, recovered by MSST Nic MitchellSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 11TD
5 plays · 29 yds · 1:56100% → 100%
Q2 9:16
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+7
99.6%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Anthony Evans III for 7 yds to the ALCN 22Similar
Q2 9:00
2ND & 3
OPP 22
+6
99.6%
Blake Shapen run for 6 yds to the ALCN 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:29
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+4
99.5%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Max Reese for 4 yds to the ALCN 20Similar
Q2 7:54
2ND & 14
OPP 20
-2
99.6%
Davon Booth run for a loss of 2 yards to the ALCN 22Similar
Q2 7:20
3RD & 16
OPP 22
+22
99.7%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Anthony Evans III for 22 yds for a TD (Kyle Ferrie KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALCNDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · -8 yds · 1:220% → 0%
Q2 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
99.8%
Jacorian Sewell run for a loss of 3 yards to the ALCN 22Similar
Q2 6:44
2ND & 13
OWN 22
-1
99.7%
Jacorian Sewell run for a loss of 1 yard to the ALCN 21Similar
Q2 6:05
3RD & 14
OWN 21
-4
99.8%
Alcorn State Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Jaylon Tolbert) to the ALCN 17Similar
Q2 5:53
4TH & 18
OWN 17
+13
99.8%
Franklin Rogers punt for 40 yds , Anthony Evans III returns for 13 yds to the ALCN 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 13TD
8 plays · 44 yds · 1:56100% → 100%
Q2 5:46
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+5
99.7%
Johnnie Daniels run for 5 yds to the ALCN 39Similar
Q2 5:26
2ND & 5
OPP 39
+4
99.7%
Johnnie Daniels run for 4 yds to the ALCN 35Similar
Q2 5:11
3RD & 1
OPP 35
0
99.7%
Johnnie Daniels run for no gain to the ALCN 35Similar
Q2 4:56
4TH & 1
OPP 35
+4
99.7%
Fluff Bothwell run for 4 yds to the ALCN 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:20
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
99.7%
Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Brenen ThompsonSimilar
Q2 4:11
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+6
99.7%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Sanfrisco Magee for 6 yds to the ALCN 25Similar
Q2 3:50
3RD & 4
OPP 25
+25
99.8%
Fluff Bothwell run for 25 yds for a TD (Kyle Ferrie KICK)Similar
Q2 3:50
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-15
99.8%
PENALTY MSU UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Bothwell,Fluff) 15 yards from MSU35 to MSU20. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALCNDrive 14PUNT
10 plays · 27 yds · 2:550% → 0%
Q2 3:33
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
99.8%
Jaylon Tolbert pass complete to Damien Jones for no gain to the ALCN 21Similar
Q2 3:03
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+7
99.8%
Jaylon Tolbert pass complete to Damien Jones for 7 yds to the ALCN 28Similar
Q2 2:28
3RD & 3
OWN 28
+11
99.8%
Jaylon Tolbert pass complete to Jacorian Sewell for 11 yds to the ALCN 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:54
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
99.9%
Jaylon Tolbert pass incomplete to Tyran WarrenSimilar
Q2 1:46
2ND & 10
OWN 39
-10
99.9%
(01:52) No Huddle-Shotgun Tolbert,Jaylon rush left for 5 yards gain to the ASU44 (Washington,Hunter) PENALTY ASU Holding (Diallo,Ibrahim) 10 yards from ASU39 to ASU29. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:37
2ND & 20
OWN 29
+9
99.9%
Jaylon Tolbert pass complete to Jarvis Rush for 9 yds to the ALCN 38Similar
Q2 1:27
3RD & 11
OWN 38
+10
99.9%
Jaylon Tolbert run for 10 yds to the ALCN 48Similar
Q2 0:38
4TH & 1
OWN 48
0
99.8%
Franklin Rogers punt for 17 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MSST 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 15END OF HALF
1 play · 5 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
99.8%
Johnnie Daniels run for 5 yds to the MSST 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALCNDrive 16PUNT
7 plays · -9 yds · 1:520% → 0%
Q3 9:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
99.9%
(10:00) No Huddle-Shotgun Sewell,Jacorian rush left for 2 yards gain to the ASU27 (Smith,Jalen) PENALTY ASU Holding (Rogers,Cameran) 10 yards from ASU25 to ASU15. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:19
1ST & 20
OWN 15
+5
99.9%
Jaylon Tolbert pass complete to Damien Jones for 5 yds to the ALCN 20Similar
Q3 8:50
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+1
99.9%
Jaylon Tolbert pass complete to Jacorian Sewell for 1 yd to the ALCN 21Similar
Q3 8:15
4TH & 14
OWN 21
-5
99.9%
(08:15) PENALTY ASU False Start (Parker,Deitron) 5 yards from ASU21 to ASU16. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:15
3RD & 14
OWN 21
0
99.9%
Jaylon Tolbert pass incomplete to Jarvis RushSimilar
Q3 8:03
4TH & 19
OWN 16
0
99.9%
Franklin Rogers punt for 47 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 17PUNT
6 plays · 19 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q3 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+4
99.9%
Kamario Taylor pass complete to Gracen Harris for 4 yds to the MSST 21Similar
Q3 10:00
2ND & 6
OWN 21
+13
99.9%
Kamario Taylor run for 13 yds to the MSST 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
99.9%
Kamario Taylor pass incomplete to Gracen HarrisSimilar
Q3 10:00
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+2
99.9%
Johnnie Daniels run for 2 yds to the MSST 36Similar
Q3 10:00
3RD & 8
OWN 36
0
99.9%
(10:00) No Huddle-Shotgun Taylor,Kamario pass complete short right to Mitchell,Isaiah caught at MSU46, for 17 yards to the ASU47 (McCall,Bakari; Ruffin,Elijah) PENALTY MSU Ineligible Downfield on Pass declined MSU Illegal Touch-Pass (Mitchell,Isaiah). NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 10:00
4TH & 8
OWN 36
0
99.9%
Ethan Pulliam punt for 36 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ALCN 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALCNDrive 18FUMBLE
2 plays · 8 yds · 10:000% → 0%
Q3 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+5
99.9%
(00:09) PENALTY MSU Offside (Clark,Corey) 5 yards from ASU28 to ASU33. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 5
OWN 33
+3
99.9%
Andre Washington pass complete to Damien Jones for 3 yds Damien Jones fumbled, recovered by MSST Dwight Lewis IIISimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 19TD
5 plays · 63 yds · 2:01100% → 100%
Q3 7:54
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
99.9%
Xavier Gayten run for 4 yds to the MSST 41Similar
Q3 7:17
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+15
99.9%
Xavier Gayten run for 15 yds to the ALCN 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:52
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+13
99.9%
Luke Kromenhoek pass complete to Ayden Williams for 13 yds to the ALCN 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:28
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+6
99.9%
Xavier Gayten run for 6 yds to the ALCN 25Similar
Q3 5:53
2ND & 4
OPP 25
+25
99.9%
Xavier Gayten run for 25 yds for a TD (Kyle Ferrie KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALCNDrive 20PUNT
10 plays · 19 yds · 3:510% → 0%
Q3 5:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
99.9%
(05:53) No Huddle-Shotgun Citizen,Tylon rush left for 4 yards gain to the ASU29 (Lockhart,Tyler; Lewis III,Dwight) PENALTY MSU Offside (Hibbler Jr.,Terrance) 5 yards from ASU25 to ASU30. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:24
1ST & 5
OWN 30
+4
99.9%
Andre Washington pass complete to Omarion Blakes for 4 yds to the ALCN 34Similar
Q3 4:57
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+3
99.9%
Andre Washington run for 3 yds to the ALCN 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:18
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-15
99.9%
(04:21) No Huddle-Shotgun Washington,Andre pass complete short left to Blakes,Omarion caught at ASU43, for 7 yards to the ASU44, End Of Play PENALTY ASU Pass Interference (Kaho,Jamar) 15 yards from ASU37 to ASU22. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:48
1ST & 25
OWN 22
+15
99.9%
Mississippi State Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the ALCN 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:28
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
99.9%
Tylan Citizen run for 2 yds to the ALCN 43Similar
Q3 2:51
2ND & 8
OWN 43
+1
99.9%
Tylan Citizen run for 1 yd to the ALCN 44Similar
Q3 2:07
3RD & 7
OWN 44
0
99.9%
Andre Washington pass incomplete to Elijah GriffinSimilar
Q3 1:56
4TH & 7
OWN 44
+1
99.9%
Franklin Rogers punt for 40 yds , Kolin Wilson returns for 1 yd to the MSST 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 21TD
1 play · 3 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 9:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
99.9%
Luke Kromenhoek run for 3 yds for a TD (Marlon Hauck KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALCNDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 2:180% → 0%
Q4 9:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
100.0%
Carl McDonald Jr. run for 3 yds to the ALCN 28Similar
Q4 9:04
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+5
100.0%
Carl McDonald Jr. run for 5 yds to the ALCN 23 Carl McDonald Jr. fumbled, recovered by ALCN Andre WashingtonSimilar
Q4 8:14
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+2
100.0%
Jacorian Sewell run for 2 yds to the ALCN 25Similar
Q4 7:29
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
100.0%
Franklin Rogers punt for 29 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 23TD
9 plays · 54 yds · 3:51100% → 100%
Q4 7:21
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+4
100.0%
Kolin Wilson run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 6:54
2ND & 6
50
+2
100.0%
Kolin Wilson run for 2 yds to the ALCN 48Similar
Q4 6:26
3RD & 4
OPP 48
+8
100.0%
Kamario Taylor run for 8 yds to the ALCN 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:01
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
100.0%
Kolin Wilson run for no gain to the ALCN 40Similar
Q4 5:23
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+8
100.0%
Seth Davis run for 8 yds to the ALCN 32Similar
Q4 4:40
3RD & 2
OPP 32
+19
100.0%
Kamario Taylor run for 19 yds to the ALCN 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:54
1ST & 10
OPP 13
-10
100.0%
(03:59) Shotgun Wilson,Kolin rush right for 10 yards gain to the ASU03 (Gibson,Brendon; Snow,Tyreke) PENALTY MSU Holding (Bouldin,Jaekwon) 10 yards from ASU13 to ASU23. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 3:30
1ST & 20
OPP 23
+23
100.0%
Seth Davis run for 23 yds for a TD (Marlon Hauck KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALCNDrive 24PUNT
6 plays · 3 yds · 2:340% → 0%
Q4 3:19
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+5
100.0%
Camren Stewart run for 5 yds to the ALCN 32Similar
Q4 2:35
2ND & 5
OWN 32
+1
100.0%
Ernest Lyons Iii run for 1 yd to the ALCN 33Similar
Q4 1:50
3RD & 4
OWN 33
+2
100.0%
Traylon Minor run for 2 yds to the ALCN 35Similar
Q4 1:12
4TH & 2
OWN 35
-5
100.0%
(01:12) PENALTY ASU False Start (Mcroy,Jaylen) 5 yards from ASU35 to ASU30. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 0:45
4TH & 7
OWN 30
0
100.0%
Franklin Rogers punt for 32 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MSST 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 25END OF GAME
1 play · 17 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+17
100.0%
Kolin Wilson run for 17 yds to the ALCN 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q1 9:15
Fluff Bothwell run for 3 yds for a TD (Kyle Ferrie KICK)
+0.1
TD · Q1 8:02
Kamario Taylor pass complete to Brenen Thompson for 42 yds for a TD (Kyle Ferrie KICK)
+0.1
TD · Q1 5:12
Blake Shapen run for 6 yds for a TD (Kyle Ferrie KICK)
+0.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com