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ARK

Arkansas 35 at Ole Miss 41

MISS
2025 · Week 3 · Sep 13, 2025 · Vaught-Hemingway Stadium
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Win probability · MISS
modelMISS aheadARK aheadconfidence bandkey playMISS scoreARK score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 4:00 · Oscar Bird punt for 51 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ARK 23
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialBlowout margin
+25.5+12.80−12.8−25.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 163Home team on offense+18.3Pregame prior+0.6Garbage-time factor+12.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+3.1Score differential+2.1Blowout margin−1.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 11:31: Trinidad Chambliss run for 1 yd for a TD Arkansas Penalty, Illegal Substitution (Justus Boone) declined (Lucas Carneiro KICK) — MISS win probability +8.9 pts (now 67%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 7:01: Braylen Russell run for 3 yds for a TD (Scott Starzyk KICK) — ARK win probability +10.6 pts (now 48%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 1:18: Taylen Green run for 5 yds for a TD (Scott Starzyk KICK) — ARK win probability +16.6 pts (now 51%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 4:56: Trinidad Chambliss pass complete to De'Zhaun Stribling for 6 yds for a TD (Lucas Carneiro KICK) — MISS win probability +13.6 pts (now 82%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 4:56: Mike Washington Jr. run for 3 yds for a TD (Scott Starzyk KICK) — ARK win probability +17.7 pts (now 23%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MISS made the numbers' call on 2 of 3ARK made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q1 12:51ARK 4th & 2 at MISS 33, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 38.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    38.4%−0.1
    49% to make
    Punt
    38.3%−0.2
    average punt
  2. Q3 13:45MISS 4th & 6 at MISS 29, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.1%−0.7
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.8%
    average punt
  3. Q3 9:54ARK 4th & 10 at ARK 46, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.8%−1.5
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.3%
    average punt
  4. Q3 0:22ARK 4th & 14 at MISS 31, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 14.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.9%−1.8
    19% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    14.7%
    54% to make
    Punt
    13.1%−1.6
    average punt
  5. Q4 10:58MISS 4th & 5 at ARK 5, up 10
    Close callKicked a field goal · 86.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.7%
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    85.7%−<0.1
    92% to make
    Punt
    80.1%−5.5
    average punt
  6. Q4 4:00MISS 4th & 9 at MISS 26, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.8%−2.3
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.1%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MISS made the numbers' call on 5 of 5ARK made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 7:14MISS Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 0:10ARK Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    38.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    38.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 14:16MISS Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 13:22ARK Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    38.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    38.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 11:31MISS Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 7:01ARK Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    37.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    37.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 3:17MISS Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q2 1:18ARK Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    37.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    37.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 4:56MISS Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 4:56ARK Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    11.5%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    11.6%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ARKDrive 1MISSED FG
6 plays · 42 yds · 1:5941% → 41%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+34
58.8%
Taylen Green pass complete to Jaden Platt for 34 yds to the MISS 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:14
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+2
58.8%
Mike Washington Jr. run for 2 yds to the MISS 39Similar
Q1 13:40
2ND & 8
OPP 39
0
58.7%
Taylen Green pass incomplete to Jordan YoungSimilar
Q1 13:21
3RD & 8
OPP 39
+6
58.7%
Taylen Green pass complete to O'Mega Blake for 6 yds to the MISS 33Similar
Q1 12:51
4TH & 2
OPP 33
+51
58.8%
Scott Starzyk 51 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 2TD
18 plays · 67 yds · 5:3059% → 63%
Q1 12:44
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+5
59.0%
Trinidad Chambliss run for 5 yds to the MISS 38Similar
Q1 12:25
2ND & 5
OWN 38
+4
59.1%
Trinidad Chambliss run for 4 yds to the MISS 42Similar
Q1 12:01
3RD & 1
OWN 42
+5
59.1%
Kewan Lacy run for 5 yds to the MISS 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:34
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+13
59.3%
Trinidad Chambliss pass complete to Kewan Lacy for 13 yds to the ARK 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:16
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+9
59.4%
Trinidad Chambliss pass complete to Cayden Lee for 9 yds to the ARK 31Similar
Q1 10:51
2ND & 1
OPP 31
0
59.6%
Trinidad Chambliss pass complete to Kewan Lacy for no gain to the ARK 31Similar
Q1 10:33
3RD & 1
OPP 31
+2
59.5%
Kewan Lacy run for 2 yds to the ARK 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:52
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+9
59.7%
Trinidad Chambliss run for 9 yds to the ARK 20Similar
Q1 9:24
2ND & 1
OPP 20
+1
59.9%
Damien Taylor run for 1 yd to the ARK 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:51
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+5
59.8%
Damien Taylor run for 5 yds to the ARK 14Similar
Q1 8:19
2ND & 5
OPP 14
+4
59.8%
Kewan Lacy run for 4 yds to the ARK 10Similar
Q1 7:53
3RD & 1
OPP 10
0
59.6%
Damien Taylor run for no gain to the ARK 10Similar
Q1 7:19
4TH & 1
OPP 10
+8
59.1%
(07:22) Chambliss,Trinidad pass incomplete short right to Wallace III,Harrison thrown to AR00 PENALTY AR Pass Interference (Walker,Kani) 8 yards from AR10 to AR02, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
62.5%
Kewan Lacy run for 2 yds for a TD (Lucas Carneiro KICK)Similar
Q1 7:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
62.5%
PENALTY AR Offside (Walker,Kani) 2 yards from AR03 to AR01. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-5
62.5%
PENALTY OM Delay Of Game 5 yards from AR01 to AR06. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
-10
62.5%
Carneiro,Lucas kick attempt good (H: Bird,Oscar, LS: Short,Carter) PENALTY OM Holding (Townsend,Delano) 10 yards from AR06 to AR16. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 3TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 6:5438% → 43%
Q1 7:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
61.7%
Taylen Green run for 11 yds to the ARK 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:31
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
61.5%
Mike Washington Jr. run for no gain to the ARK 36Similar
Q1 5:46
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+15
62.0%
Taylen Green pass complete to Jalen Brown for 15 yds to the MISS 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:16
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-4
61.3%
Mike Washington Jr. run for a loss of 4 yards to the ARK 47Similar
Q1 4:39
2ND & 14
OWN 47
+4
62.4%
Taylen Green run for 4 yds to the MISS 49Similar
Q1 4:04
3RD & 10
OPP 49
+10
62.2%
Taylen Green run for 10 yds to the MISS 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:27
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+4
61.7%
Braylen Russell run for 4 yds to the MISS 35Similar
Q1 2:47
2ND & 6
OPP 35
+4
61.0%
Braylen Russell run for 4 yds to the MISS 31Similar
Q1 2:06
3RD & 2
OPP 31
+7
61.5%
Braylen Russell run for 7 yds to the MISS 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:25
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+4
60.9%
Kam Shanks run for 4 yds to the MISS 20Similar
Q1 0:48
2ND & 6
OPP 20
-10
60.9%
(00:54) No Huddle-Shotgun Green,Taylen pass complete short right to Paaske,Andreas caught at OM16, for 10 yards to the OM10 (Dottery,TJ) PENALTY AR Holding (Kitler,Caden) 10 yards from OM20 to OM30. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 0:16
2ND & 16
OPP 30
0
62.0%
Taylen Green pass incomplete to CJ BrownSimilar
Q1 0:10
3RD & 16
OPP 30
+30
57.4%
Taylen Green pass complete to O'Mega Blake for 30 yds for a TD (Scott Starzyk KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 4TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 0:4459% → 66%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+62
58.9%
Trinidad Chambliss pass complete to Cayden Lee for 62 yds to the ARK 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:52
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+2
61.0%
Trinidad Chambliss run for 2 yds to the ARK 11Similar
Q2 14:29
2ND & 8
OPP 11
+9
61.0%
Trinidad Chambliss pass complete to Harrison Wallace III for 9 yds to the ARK 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
65.8%
Trinidad Chambliss run for 2 yds for a TD (Lucas Carneiro KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 5TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 0:4536% → 44%
Q2 14:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
63.9%
Taylen Green pass complete to Jalen Brown for 7 yds to the ARK 32Similar
Q2 13:40
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+21
63.0%
Taylen Green run for 6 yds to the MISS 38 for a 1ST down Ole Miss Penalty, (15 Yards) to the MISS 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:31
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
62.3%
Taylen Green pass incomplete to Raylen SharpeSimilar
Q2 13:22
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+47
56.1%
Mike Washington Jr. run for 47 yds for a TD (Scott Starzyk KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 6TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:4859% → 67%
Q2 13:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
58.9%
(13:22) Shotgun Chambliss,Trinidad pass incomplete short right to Wright,Dae'Quan thrown to OM24 PENALTY AR Holding (Boone,Justus) 10 yards from OM25 to OM35, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 13:13
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
59.2%
Damien Taylor run for 3 yds to the MISS 38Similar
Q2 12:40
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+3
60.1%
Trinidad Chambliss pass complete to Damien Taylor for 3 yds to the MISS 35Similar
Q2 11:51
3RD & 10
OWN 35
+64
58.1%
Trinidad Chambliss pass complete to Dae'Quan Wright for 64 yds to the ARK 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
67.0%
Trinidad Chambliss run for 1 yd for a TD Arkansas Penalty, Illegal Substitution (Justus Boone) declined (Lucas Carneiro KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 7TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 4:2435% → 48%
Q2 11:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
64.7%
Taylen Green pass complete to Jaden Platt for 13 yds to the ARK 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:57
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
63.9%
Taylen Green pass incomplete to O'Mega BlakeSimilar
Q2 10:50
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+9
64.1%
Taylen Green run for 9 yds to the ARK 47Similar
Q2 10:08
3RD & 1
OWN 47
+6
63.4%
Mike Washington Jr. run for 6 yds to the MISS 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:31
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+26
63.4%
Taylen Green pass complete to CJ Brown for 26 yds to the MISS 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:07
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+12
62.1%
Taylen Green run for 12 yds to the MISS 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+1
62.2%
Mike Washington Jr. run for 1 yd to the MISS 8Similar
Q2 8:03
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
0
62.8%
Taylen Green pass incomplete to Jalen BrownSimilar
Q2 7:52
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
+4
64.0%
(08:02) No Huddle-Shotgun Green,Taylen pass intercepted by Kite,Antonio at OM00 PENALTY OM Holding (Williams Jr.,Wydett) 4 yards from OM08 to OM04. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
62.8%
Braylen Russell run for 1 yd to the MISS 3Similar
Q2 7:01
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
52.2%
Braylen Russell run for 3 yds for a TD (Scott Starzyk KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 8TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 3:3759% → 71%
Q2 6:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+22
58.9%
Trinidad Chambliss pass complete to Kewan Lacy for 22 yds to the MISS 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:27
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
61.1%
Trinidad Chambliss pass incomplete to De'Zhaun StriblingSimilar
Q2 6:20
2ND & 10
OWN 47
0
60.7%
Trinidad Chambliss pass incomplete to Harrison Wallace IIISimilar
Q2 6:14
3RD & 10
OWN 47
+15
59.1%
(06:19) No Huddle-Shotgun Chambliss,Trinidad pass incomplete deep left to Lee,Cayden thrown to AR28 PENALTY AR Pass Interference (Davila,Keshawn) 15 yards from OM47 to AR38, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:06
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+8
61.7%
Kewan Lacy run for 8 yds to the ARK 30Similar
Q2 5:41
2ND & 2
OPP 30
+16
62.2%
Trinidad Chambliss pass complete to Deuce Alexander for 1 yd to the ARK 29 for a 1ST down Arkansas Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Kani Walker) to the ARK 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:26
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+1
62.2%
Kewan Lacy run for 1 yd to the ARK 13Similar
Q2 5:00
2ND & 9
OPP 13
+1
62.3%
Kewan Lacy run for 1 yd to the ARK 12Similar
Q2 4:13
3RD & 8
OPP 12
+8
61.4%
Austin Simmons run for 8 yds to the ARK 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
62.4%
Kewan Lacy run for no gain to the ARK 4Similar
Q2 3:17
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
71.4%
Austin Simmons pass complete to Harrison Wallace III for 4 yds for a TD (Lucas Carneiro KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 9TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 1:5132% → 51%
Q2 3:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
68.1%
Taylen Green pass incomplete to Mike Washington Jr.Similar
Q2 3:01
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+35
68.4%
Taylen Green pass complete to Mike Washington Jr. for 35 yds to the MISS 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:35
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+15
65.3%
Taylen Green run for 15 yds to the MISS 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:51
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
62.8%
Taylen Green pass incomplete to Jalen BrownSimilar
Q2 1:45
2ND & 10
OPP 25
0
64.6%
Taylen Green pass incomplete to O'Mega BlakeSimilar
Q2 1:39
3RD & 10
OPP 25
+20
66.0%
Taylen Green run for 20 yds to the MISS 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
49.4%
Taylen Green run for 5 yds for a TD (Scott Starzyk KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 10FG
10 plays · 57 yds · 1:0859% → 66%
Q2 1:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
58.5%
Trinidad Chambliss pass complete to Kewan Lacy for 5 yds to the MISS 30Similar
Q2 1:08
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+5
59.1%
Trinidad Chambliss run for 5 yds to the MISS 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:08
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
58.9%
Trinidad Chambliss pass incomplete to Dae'Quan WrightSimilar
Q2 1:08
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+15
58.6%
Trinidad Chambliss pass complete to Harrison Wallace III for 15 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:08
1ST & 10
50
+13
61.6%
Trinidad Chambliss pass complete to Logan Diggs for 13 yds to the ARK 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:08
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-2
61.9%
Trinidad Chambliss sacked by Miguel Mitchell for a loss of 2 yards to the ARK 39Similar
Q2 0:10
2ND & 12
OPP 39
+21
61.1%
Trinidad Chambliss pass complete to Deuce Alexander for 21 yds to the ARK 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:05
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
62.8%
Trinidad Chambliss pass incomplete to Harrison Wallace IIISimilar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+36
66.4%
Lucas Carneiro 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:0863% → 62%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
62.6%
Kewan Lacy run for no gain to the MISS 25Similar
Q3 14:11
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
63.6%
Trinidad Chambliss pass complete to Cayden Lee for 4 yds to the MISS 29Similar
Q3 13:56
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
63.0%
Trinidad Chambliss pass incomplete to Harrison Wallace IIISimilar
Q3 13:45
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
61.7%
Oscar Bird punt for 59 yds , Kam Shanks returns for no gain to the ARK 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 12PUNT
8 plays · 36 yds · 3:4537% → 36%
Q3 13:39
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+3
62.9%
Mike Washington Jr. run for 3 yds to the ARK 13Similar
Q3 12:58
2ND & 7
OWN 13
+10
63.2%
Taylen Green pass complete to O'Mega Blake for 10 yds to the ARK 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:25
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
62.7%
Mike Washington Jr. run for 2 yds to the ARK 25Similar
Q3 11:35
2ND & 8
OWN 25
+21
62.9%
Taylen Green pass complete to Rohan Jones for 21 yds to the ARK 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
59.8%
Mike Washington Jr. run for no gain to the ARK 46Similar
Q3 10:39
2ND & 10
OWN 46
0
60.7%
Taylen Green pass incomplete to Jaden PlattSimilar
Q3 10:31
3RD & 10
OWN 46
0
61.7%
Taylen Green pass complete to CJ Brown for no gain to the ARK 46Similar
Q3 9:54
4TH & 10
OWN 46
0
64.3%
Devin Bale punt for 47 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MISS 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 13TD
14 plays · 93 yds · 4:5264% → 82%
Q3 9:48
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+9
64.1%
Kewan Lacy run for 9 yds to the MISS 16Similar
Q3 9:27
2ND & 1
OWN 16
0
64.4%
Kewan Lacy run for no gain to the MISS 16Similar
Q3 8:43
3RD & 1
OWN 16
+1
63.0%
Kewan Lacy run for 1 yd to the MISS 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:17
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+7
64.7%
Trinidad Chambliss pass complete to Harrison Wallace III for 7 yds to the MISS 24Similar
Q3 7:42
2ND & 3
OWN 24
+40
65.1%
Trinidad Chambliss pass complete to Harrison Wallace III for 40 yds to the ARK 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:23
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
68.4%
Trinidad Chambliss pass incomplete to Caleb OdomSimilar
Q3 7:17
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+13
68.3%
Trinidad Chambliss pass complete to Deuce Alexander for 13 yds to the ARK 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:50
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+8
69.4%
Trinidad Chambliss run for 8 yds to the ARK 15Similar
Q3 6:21
2ND & 2
OPP 15
+6
69.5%
Kewan Lacy run for 6 yds to the ARK 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
69.6%
Trinidad Chambliss run for no gain to the ARK 9Similar
Q3 5:21
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
-9
69.8%
(05:26) No Huddle-Shotgun Chambliss,Trinidad rush middle for 9 yards gain to the AR00 TOUCHDOWN nullified by penalty, clock 05:21 PENALTY OM Holding (Sanders,Brycen) 9 yards from AR09 to AR18. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:16
2ND & GOAL
OPP 18
+17
69.0%
Trinidad Chambliss pass complete to Harrison Wallace III for 17 yds to the ARK 1Similar
Q3 5:08
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
-5
68.4%
(05:10) No Huddle-Shotgun Diggs,Logan rush middle for 1 yard gain to the AR00 TOUCHDOWN nullified by penalty, clock 05:08 PENALTY OM False Start (Wallace III,Harrison) 5 yards from AR01 to AR06. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:56
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
81.9%
Trinidad Chambliss pass complete to De'Zhaun Stribling for 6 yds for a TD (Lucas Carneiro KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 14MISSED FG
12 plays · 44 yds · 4:2520% → 14%
Q3 4:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
80.1%
Mike Washington Jr. run for 2 yds to the ARK 27Similar
Q3 4:24
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+7
79.8%
Taylen Green pass complete to O'Mega Blake for 7 yds to the ARK 34Similar
Q3 3:30
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+10
80.0%
Taylen Green pass complete to O'Mega Blake for 10 yds to the ARK 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:58
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+11
79.1%
Taylen Green run for 11 yds to the MISS 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:28
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
80.6%
Taylen Green pass incomplete to CJ BrownSimilar
Q3 2:22
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+18
80.9%
Taylen Green pass complete to Mike Washington Jr. for 18 yds to the MISS 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:55
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
79.5%
Mike Washington Jr. run for no gain to the MISS 27Similar
Q3 1:08
2ND & 10
OPP 27
-4
80.4%
Taylen Green run for a loss of 4 yards to the MISS 31Similar
Q3 0:29
3RD & 14
OPP 31
0
84.6%
Taylen Green pass incomplete to O'Mega BlakeSimilar
Q3 0:22
4TH & 14
OPP 31
+49
86.4%
Scott Starzyk 49 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 15FG
8 plays · 64 yds · 4:0286% → 94%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+5
85.7%
Kewan Lacy run for 5 yds to the MISS 36Similar
Q4 14:51
2ND & 5
OWN 36
+35
86.3%
Trinidad Chambliss pass complete to Deuce Alexander for 35 yds to the ARK 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:22
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-2
87.2%
Kewan Lacy run for a loss of 2 yards to the ARK 31Similar
Q4 13:59
2ND & 12
OPP 31
-1
87.1%
Kewan Lacy run for a loss of 1 yard to the ARK 32Similar
Q4 12:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
88.6%
Trinidad Chambliss pass complete to De'Zhaun Stribling for no gain to the ARK 7Similar
Q4 12:16
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+1
88.7%
Trinidad Chambliss run for 1 yd to the ARK 6Similar
Q4 11:34
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
88.2%
Harrison Wallace III run for 1 yd to the ARK 5Similar
Q4 10:58
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+23
93.9%
Lucas Carneiro 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 16TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 5:556% → 23%
Q4 10:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
93.7%
Taylen Green run for 1 yd to the ARK 26Similar
Q4 10:24
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+8
94.2%
Braylen Russell run for 8 yds to the ARK 34Similar
Q4 10:02
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+2
93.8%
Braylen Russell run for 2 yds to the ARK 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:26
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
93.7%
Taylen Green pass complete to Braylen Russell for 2 yds to the ARK 38Similar
Q4 8:57
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+5
93.9%
Taylen Green pass complete to Raylen Sharpe for 5 yds to the ARK 43Similar
Q4 8:22
3RD & 3
OWN 43
+19
94.4%
Taylen Green run for 4 yds to the MISS 47 for a 1ST down Ole Miss Penalty, (15 Yards) to the MISS 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:59
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+18
94.3%
Taylen Green pass complete to Raylen Sharpe for 18 yds to the MISS 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:27
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+5
93.7%
Braylen Russell run for 5 yds to the MISS 15Similar
Q4 6:51
2ND & 5
OPP 15
+3
94.0%
Braylen Russell run for 3 yds to the MISS 12Similar
Q4 6:11
3RD & 2
OPP 12
+3
95.2%
Mike Washington Jr. run for 3 yds to the MISS 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+6
94.8%
Taylen Green pass complete to Jaden Platt for 6 yds to the MISS 3Similar
Q4 4:56
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
77.1%
Mike Washington Jr. run for 3 yds for a TD (Scott Starzyk KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:5090% → 89%
Q4 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
89.6%
Trinidad Chambliss pass incomplete to Cayden LeeSimilar
Q4 4:44
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
89.5%
Trinidad Chambliss pass incomplete to Harrison Wallace IIISimilar
Q4 4:38
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+1
88.9%
Trinidad Chambliss run for 1 yd to the MISS 26Similar
Q4 4:00
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
89.2%
Oscar Bird punt for 51 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ARK 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 18FUMBLE
8 plays · 53 yds · 2:0115% → 25%
Q4 3:53
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
85.0%
Taylen Green pass incomplete to Jalen BrownSimilar
Q4 3:44
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+15
85.3%
Taylen Green pass complete to Jalen Brown for 15 yds to the ARK 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:18
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
83.0%
Taylen Green pass incomplete to Jalen BrownSimilar
Q4 3:02
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+18
83.7%
Taylen Green pass complete to O'Mega Blake for 18 yds to the MISS 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:40
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+11
81.5%
Taylen Green run for 11 yds to the MISS 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:21
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+6
79.5%
Taylen Green pass complete to Kam Shanks for 6 yds to the MISS 27Similar
Q4 1:52
2ND & 4
OPP 27
+3
75.1%
Taylen Green pass complete to Jalen Brown for 3 yds Jalen Brown fumbled, recovered by ARK Wydett Williams Jr.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 19END OF GAME
7 plays · 6 yds · 1:4795% → 96%
Q4 1:47
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+7
94.7%
Trinidad Chambliss run for 7 yds to the MISS 31Similar
Q4 1:42
2ND & 3
OWN 31
+2
94.7%
Trinidad Chambliss run for 2 yds to the MISS 33Similar
Q4 1:40
3RD & 1
OWN 33
+3
95.2%
Kewan Lacy run for 3 yds to the MISS 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:58
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-3
96.3%
T. Chambliss takes a kneeSimilar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 13
OWN 33
-3
96.1%
T. Chambliss takes a kneeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 4:56
Mike Washington Jr. run for 3 yds for a TD (Scott Starzyk KICK)
-17.7
TD · Q2 1:18
Taylen Green run for 5 yds for a TD (Scott Starzyk KICK)
-16.6
TD · Q3 4:56
Trinidad Chambliss pass complete to De'Zhaun Stribling for 6 yds for a TD (Lucas Carneiro KICK)
+13.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com