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USA

South Alabama 15 at Auburn 31

AUB
2025 · Week 3 · Sep 13, 2025 · Jordan-Hare Stadium
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Win probability · AUB
modelAUB aheadUSA aheadconfidence bandkey playAUB scoreUSA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 7:14 · Jackson Arnold run for 9 yds to the USA 43 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+46.0+23.00−23.0−46.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 106Pregame prior+23.7Home team on offense+16.3Score differential+7.6Garbage-time factor+5.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.9Time remaining−1.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 9:48: Jackson Arnold run for 5 yds for a TD (Alex McPherson KICK) — AUB win probability +1.7 pts (now 96%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 5:24: Bishop Davenport pass complete to Jeremy Scott for 20 yds for a TD (Hamilton DiBoyan PAT MISSED) — USA win probability +2.1 pts (now 8%) (top driver: USA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 0:40: Jeremiah Cobb run for 2 yds for a TD (Alex McPherson KICK) — AUB win probability +3.5 pts (now 97%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 9:55: Bishop Davenport pass complete to Devin Voisin for 12 yds for a TD (Hamilton DiBoyan PAT MISSED) — USA win probability +2.5 pts (now 7%) (top driver: USA has the ball).
  5. FG · Q3 1:15: Alex McPherson 34 yd FG GOOD — AUB win probability +1.4 pts (now 96%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
AUB made the numbers' call on 6 of 6USA made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
  1. Q1 9:34AUB 4th & 5 at USA 46, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 93.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    93.5%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    93.4%−0.1
    23% to make
    Punt
    93.5%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 3:43USA 4th & 8 at AUB 11, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 7.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.0%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    7.1%
    87% to make
    Punt
    6.5%−0.6
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:45AUB 4th & 6 at AUB 35, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.8%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.9%
    average punt
  4. Q2 12:24USA 4th & 4 at USA 15, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.1%−<0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.2%
    average punt
  5. Q2 8:05USA 4th & 1 at USA 34, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    5.2%−0.4
    average punt
  6. Q3 7:14AUB 4th & 1 at AUB 48, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 93.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    93.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    92.2%−1.2
    average punt
  7. Q3 3:13AUB 4th & 1 at USA 23, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 94.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    93.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    92.7%−1.2
    70% to make
    Punt
    89.1%−4.8
    average punt
  8. Q3 1:15AUB 4th & 6 at USA 16, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 94.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.4%−0.3
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    93.7%
    81% to make
    Punt
    89.6%−4.2
    average punt
  9. Q4 9:01AUB 4th & 8 at AUB 23, up 16
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.3%−0.5
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.8%
    average punt
  10. Q4 7:49USA 4th & 4 at USA 37, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    3.4%−0.2
    average punt
  11. Q4 6:47USA 4th & 3 at AUB 41, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    3.0%−0.6
    32% to make
    Punt
    3.0%−0.6
    average punt
  12. Q4 4:52USA 4th & 1 at AUB 28, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    2.7%−0.6
    60% to make
    Punt
    1.7%−1.6
    average punt
  13. Q4 2:32USA 4th & 8 at AUB 22, down 16
    Close callWent for it · 2.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.6%−<0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    2.6%
    72% to make
    Punt
    1.9%−0.7
    average punt
  14. Q4 2:32USA 4th & 8 at AUB 22, down 16
    Close callWent for it · 2.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.6%−<0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    2.6%
    72% to make
    Punt
    1.9%−0.7
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
AUB made the numbers' call on 4 of 4USA made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 9:09AUB Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:14AUB Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 9:48AUB Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 5:24USA Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    7.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    7.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:40AUB Touchdown, up 18 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 9:55USA Touchdown, down 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    6.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    6.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
AUBDrive 1TD
14 plays · 92 yds · 5:4496% → 95%
Q1 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+8
95.8%
Eric Singleton Jr. run for 8 yds to the AUB 16Similar
Q1 14:26
2ND & 2
OWN 16
+3
95.7%
Jeremiah Cobb run for 3 yds to the AUB 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:54
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
95.6%
Jackson Arnold pass incomplete to Cam ColemanSimilar
Q1 13:42
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+9
95.6%
Jackson Arnold pass complete to Eric Singleton Jr. for 9 yds to the AUB 28Similar
Q1 13:04
3RD & 1
OWN 28
+4
95.4%
Jeremiah Cobb run for 4 yds to the AUB 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:28
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+9
95.3%
Jackson Arnold run for 9 yds to the AUB 41Similar
Q1 11:50
2ND & 1
OWN 41
+8
95.3%
Jeremiah Cobb run for 8 yds to the AUB 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:06
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+1
95.1%
Jeremiah Cobb run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 10:30
2ND & 9
50
0
95.0%
Jackson Arnold pass incomplete to Preston HowardSimilar
Q1 10:20
3RD & 9
50
+4
94.9%
Jackson Arnold run for 4 yds to the USA 46Similar
Q1 9:34
4TH & 5
OPP 46
+14
94.7%
Jackson Arnold pass complete to Eric Singleton Jr. for 14 yds to the USA 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:09
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+32
95.2%
Jackson Arnold pass complete to Cam Coleman for 32 yds for a TD South Alabama Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Christopher Wallace Jr.) declined (Alex McPherson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 2FG
13 plays · 64 yds · 5:155% → 7%
Q1 8:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
95.0%
Bishop Davenport pass complete to Trent Thomas for 16 yds to the USA 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:27
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+9
94.8%
Kentrel Bullock run for 9 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 7:56
2ND & 1
50
0
94.7%
Kentrel Bullock run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 7:25
3RD & 1
50
+7
94.6%
Kentrel Bullock run for 7 yds to the AUB 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
94.5%
Bishop Davenport pass incomplete to Devin VoisinSimilar
Q1 6:54
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+4
94.5%
Keenan Phillips run for 4 yds to the AUB 39Similar
Q1 6:24
3RD & 6
OPP 39
+9
94.4%
Bishop Davenport pass complete to Anthony Eager for 9 yds to the AUB 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:51
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+13
94.2%
Auburn Penalty, Personal Foul (Dallas Walker IV) to the AUB 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:22
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+1
94.0%
Bishop Davenport pass complete to Anthony Eager for 1 yd to the AUB 12Similar
Q1 4:54
2ND & 9
OPP 12
-2
93.9%
Bishop Davenport run for a loss of 2 yards to the AUB 14Similar
Q1 4:14
3RD & 11
OPP 14
+3
94.0%
Kentrel Bullock run for 3 yds to the AUB 11Similar
Q1 3:43
4TH & 8
OPP 11
+29
93.4%
Hamilton DiBoyan 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:4394% → 93%
Q1 3:28
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+4
93.6%
Jeremiah Cobb run for 4 yds to the AUB 35Similar
Q1 2:56
2ND & 6
OWN 35
0
93.5%
Jackson Arnold pass incomplete to Horatio FieldsSimilar
Q1 2:53
3RD & 6
OWN 35
0
93.3%
Jackson Arnold pass incomplete to Preston HowardSimilar
Q1 2:45
4TH & 6
OWN 35
+42
93.2%
Hudson Kaak punt for 42 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the USA 23 South Alabama Penalty, Blocking Out Of Bounds (Brian Dillard) to the USA 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 4INT
6 plays · 18 yds · 1:357% → 7%
Q1 2:19
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+5
93.1%
Keenan Phillips run for 5 yds to the USA 17Similar
Q1 2:02
2ND & 5
OWN 17
+7
93.1%
Bishop Davenport pass complete to Devin Voisin for 7 yds to the USA 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:44
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-1
93.0%
Keenan Phillips run for a loss of 1 yard to the USA 23Similar
Q1 1:07
2ND & 11
OWN 23
+2
92.8%
Bishop Davenport pass complete to Keenan Phillips for 2 yds to the USA 25Similar
Q1 0:49
3RD & 9
OWN 25
+5
92.9%
(00:50) No Huddle-Shotgun Davenport,Bishop pass incomplete deep right to Voisin,Devin thrown to USA45 broken up by Lee,Kayin PENALTY AUB Offside (Murray,Chris) 5 yards from USA25 to USA30. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 0:44
3RD & 4
OWN 30
0
92.7%
South Alabama Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Anthony Eager) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 5TD
6 plays · 33 yds · 1:1893% → 94%
Q1 0:32
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+15
93.1%
Jeremiah Cobb run for 15 yds to the USA 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:23
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
93.1%
Jackson Arnold pass incomplete to Perry ThompsonSimilar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+9
93.0%
Jackson Arnold pass complete to Eric Singleton Jr. for 9 yds to the USA 9Similar
Q2 14:51
3RD & 1
OPP 9
+3
92.8%
Jackson Arnold run for 3 yds to the USA 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
94.1%
Jackson Arnold run for 6 yds for a TD (Alex McPherson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:386% → 6%
Q2 14:02
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+1
93.7%
Kentrel Bullock run for 1 yd to the USA 10Similar
Q2 13:35
2ND & 9
OWN 10
+5
93.8%
Bishop Davenport pass complete to Devin Voisin for 5 yds to the USA 15 South Alabama Penalty, Illegal Formation (Christopher Wallace Jr.) declinedSimilar
Q2 13:10
3RD & 4
OWN 15
0
93.8%
Kentrel Bullock run for no gain to the USA 15Similar
Q2 12:24
4TH & 4
OWN 15
0
93.8%
Aleksi Pulkkinen punt for 39 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 7TD
7 plays · 54 yds · 2:2894% → 96%
Q2 12:16
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+15
94.1%
Jeremiah Cobb run for 15 yds to the USA 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:39
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+14
94.1%
Jackson Arnold pass complete to Eric Singleton Jr. for 14 yds to the USA 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:03
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+6
94.0%
Jeremiah Cobb run for 6 yds to the USA 19Similar
Q2 10:26
2ND & 4
OPP 19
0
94.1%
Jackson Arnold pass incomplete to Jeremiah CobbSimilar
Q2 10:12
3RD & 4
OPP 19
+14
93.9%
Jackson Arnold pass complete to Horatio Fields for 14 yds to the USA 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
93.9%
Jackson Arnold pass incomplete to Cam ColemanSimilar
Q2 9:48
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
95.7%
Jackson Arnold run for 5 yds for a TD (Alex McPherson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 8TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 4:155% → 8%
Q2 9:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
95.4%
PJ Martin run for 3 yds to the USA 28Similar
Q2 9:07
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+4
95.3%
PJ Martin run for 4 yds to the USA 32Similar
Q2 8:32
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+2
95.3%
PJ Martin run for 2 yds to the USA 34Similar
Q2 8:05
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+2
95.1%
PJ Martin run for 2 yds to the USA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:27
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+8
95.0%
Kentrel Bullock run for 8 yds to the USA 44Similar
Q2 7:02
2ND & 2
OWN 44
+21
94.7%
Bishop Davenport pass complete to Devin Voisin for 21 yds to the AUB 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:43
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
94.4%
Kentrel Bullock run for no gain to the AUB 35Similar
Q2 6:10
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+11
94.4%
Bishop Davenport pass complete to Anthony Eager for 11 yds to the AUB 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:52
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+4
94.3%
Bishop Davenport pass complete to Anthony Eager for 4 yds to the AUB 20Similar
Q2 5:24
2ND & 6
OPP 20
+20
92.2%
Bishop Davenport pass complete to Jeremy Scott for 20 yds for a TD (Hamilton DiBoyan PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 9TD
16 plays · 75 yds · 4:3793% → 97%
Q2 5:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
93.3%
Jeremiah Cobb run for 3 yds to the AUB 28Similar
Q2 4:50
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+4
93.2%
Jackson Arnold pass complete to Perry Thompson for 4 yds to the AUB 32Similar
Q2 4:21
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+7
93.1%
Jackson Arnold pass complete to Eric Singleton Jr. for 7 yds to the AUB 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:49
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
93.5%
Eric Singleton Jr. run for 4 yds to the AUB 43Similar
Q2 3:11
2ND & 6
OWN 43
+4
93.4%
Jeremiah Cobb run for 4 yds to the AUB 47Similar
Q2 2:48
3RD & 2
OWN 47
+8
93.2%
Jackson Arnold run for 8 yds to the USA 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:19
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
93.6%
Jeremiah Cobb run for 2 yds to the USA 43Similar
Q2 1:52
2ND & 8
OPP 43
-1
94.4%
Jackson Arnold sacked by Tirrell Johnson Jr. for a loss of 1 yard to the USA 44Similar
Q2 1:46
3RD & 9
OPP 44
+12
94.1%
Jackson Arnold pass complete to Eric Singleton Jr. for 12 yds to the USA 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:22
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+9
94.5%
Jeremiah Cobb run for 9 yds to the USA 23Similar
Q2 1:04
2ND & 1
OPP 23
+17
94.3%
Jackson Arnold pass complete to Cam Coleman for 17 yds to the USA 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+4
93.9%
Jeremiah Cobb run for 4 yds to the USA 2Similar
Q2 0:43
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
93.7%
Jackson Arnold pass incomplete to Preston HowardSimilar
Q2 0:40
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
97.2%
Jeremiah Cobb run for 2 yds for a TD (Alex McPherson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 10END OF HALF
3 plays · -1 yds · 0:305% → 5%
Q2 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
95.5%
Keenan Phillips run for 4 yds to the USA 29Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
-5
95.2%
(00:12) No Huddle-Shotgun Phillips,Keenan rush middle for 4 yards gain to the USA33 (Melendez,Elijah) PENALTY USA Illegal Formation 5 yards from USA29 to USA24. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 11TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 4:584% → 7%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
95.9%
Kentrel Bullock run for 3 yds to the USA 28Similar
Q3 14:24
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+4
95.8%
Kentrel Bullock run for 4 yds to the USA 32Similar
Q3 13:41
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+6
95.7%
Bishop Davenport pass complete to Brendan Jenkins for 6 yds to the USA 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:10
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+25
95.9%
Bishop Davenport pass complete to Brendan Jenkins for 25 yds to the AUB 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:45
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+11
95.7%
Bishop Davenport pass complete to Anthony Eager for 11 yds to the AUB 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:28
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-2
95.3%
PJ Martin run for a loss of 2 yards to the AUB 28Similar
Q3 11:58
2ND & 12
OPP 28
+6
95.6%
Kentrel Bullock run for 6 yds to the AUB 22Similar
Q3 11:07
3RD & 6
OPP 22
+14
95.7%
Bishop Davenport pass complete to Anthony Eager for 14 yds to the AUB 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-5
95.4%
(10:49) PENALTY USA False Start 5 yards from AUB08 to AUB13. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 10:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 13
+1
95.6%
PJ Martin run for 1 yd to the AUB 12Similar
Q3 10:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 12
0
95.6%
Bishop Davenport pass incomplete to Rod GibbsSimilar
Q3 9:55
3RD & GOAL
OPP 12
+12
93.1%
Bishop Davenport pass complete to Devin Voisin for 12 yds for a TD (Hamilton DiBoyan PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 12FG
17 plays · 62 yds · 8:2694% → 96%
Q3 9:41
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+3
94.3%
Jeremiah Cobb run for 3 yds to the AUB 25Similar
Q3 9:05
2ND & 7
OWN 25
+14
94.3%
Jeremiah Cobb run for 14 yds to the AUB 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:20
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
94.5%
Eric Singleton Jr. run for 3 yds to the AUB 42Similar
Q3 7:49
2ND & 7
OWN 42
0
94.4%
Jackson Arnold pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:39
3RD & 7
OWN 42
+6
94.1%
Jackson Arnold pass complete to Horatio Fields for 6 yds to the AUB 48Similar
Q3 7:14
4TH & 1
OWN 48
+9
93.8%
Jackson Arnold run for 9 yds to the USA 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:31
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+7
94.6%
Jackson Arnold pass complete to Omar Mabson II for 7 yds to the USA 36Similar
Q3 5:59
2ND & 3
OPP 36
+4
94.8%
Jackson Arnold run for 4 yds to the USA 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:16
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+5
94.9%
Omar Mabson II run for 5 yds to the USA 27Similar
Q3 4:21
2ND & 5
OPP 27
+2
95.0%
Omar Mabson II run for 2 yds to the USA 25Similar
Q3 3:50
3RD & 3
OPP 25
+2
94.8%
Omar Mabson II run for 2 yds to the USA 23Similar
Q3 3:13
4TH & 1
OPP 23
+3
94.4%
Jackson Arnold run for 3 yds to the USA 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:33
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+4
95.1%
Omar Mabson II run for 4 yds to the USA 16Similar
Q3 1:53
2ND & 6
OPP 16
0
95.1%
Omar Mabson II run for no gain to the USA 16Similar
Q3 1:20
3RD & 6
OPP 16
0
94.9%
Jackson Arnold pass incomplete to Eric Singleton Jr.Similar
Q3 1:15
4TH & 6
OPP 16
+34
96.3%
Alex McPherson 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 13FUMBLE
15 plays · 54 yds · 5:285% → 5%
Q3 1:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
95.4%
Keenan Phillips run for 2 yds to the USA 27Similar
Q3 0:40
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+7
95.2%
Bishop Davenport run for 7 yds to the USA 34Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+6
95.1%
Keenan Phillips run for 6 yds to the USA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-1
95.0%
Keenan Phillips run for a loss of 1 yard to the USA 39Similar
Q4 14:29
2ND & 11
OWN 39
0
95.1%
Bishop Davenport pass incomplete to Jeremy ScottSimilar
Q4 14:22
3RD & 11
OWN 39
+16
95.4%
Bishop Davenport run for 16 yds to the AUB 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:42
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+1
95.0%
Bishop Davenport pass complete to Jeremy Scott for 1 yd to the AUB 44Similar
Q4 13:14
2ND & 9
OPP 44
-1
95.0%
PJ Martin run for a loss of 1 yard to the AUB 45Similar
Q4 12:44
3RD & 10
OPP 45
+10
95.1%
(12:46) No Huddle-Shotgun Davenport,Bishop pass incomplete deep left to Jones-Thomas,Jeremiah thrown to AUB20 PENALTY AUB Holding (Fegans,AnQuon) 10 yards from AUB45 to AUB35, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:35
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+16
94.4%
PJ Martin run for 16 yds to the AUB 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:20
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-5
94.0%
(12:20) PENALTY USA False Start (Hubbard,Ethan) 5 yards from AUB19 to AUB24. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 11:56
1ST & 15
OPP 24
+6
94.7%
PJ Martin run for 6 yds to the AUB 18Similar
Q4 11:17
2ND & 9
OPP 18
0
94.5%
PJ Martin run for no gain to the AUB 18Similar
Q4 10:43
3RD & 9
OPP 18
-3
95.5%
Bishop Davenport sacked by Jared Smith for a loss of 3 yards to the AUB 21 Bishop Davenport fumbled, recovered by AUB Xavier Atkins , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:3497% → 97%
Q4 10:35
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+5
97.0%
Jeremiah Cobb run for 5 yds to the AUB 26Similar
Q4 9:48
2ND & 5
OWN 26
+3
97.1%
Jackson Arnold pass complete to Bryce Cain for 3 yds to the AUB 23Similar
Q4 9:13
3RD & 8
OWN 23
0
97.0%
Jackson Arnold pass incomplete to Preston HowardSimilar
Q4 9:01
4TH & 8
OWN 23
0
96.8%
Hudson Kaak punt for 46 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 15DOWNS
19 plays · 47 yds · 6:204% → 2%
Q4 8:52
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+5
96.1%
Kentrel Bullock run for 5 yds to the USA 36Similar
Q4 8:22
2ND & 5
OWN 36
+1
96.1%
Bishop Davenport run for 1 yd to the USA 37Similar
Q4 7:55
3RD & 4
OWN 37
0
96.2%
Bishop Davenport pass incomplete to Brendan JenkinsSimilar
Q4 7:49
4TH & 4
OWN 37
0
96.3%
Bishop Davenport pass incomplete to Anthony EagerSimilar
Q4 7:49
4TH & 4
OWN 37
+15
96.3%
(07:54) No Huddle-Shotgun Davenport,Bishop pass incomplete deep right to Eager,Anthony thrown to AUB30 PENALTY AUB Pass Interference (Louidor-Faustin,Kensley) 15 yards from USA37 to AUB48, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 7:44
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
95.9%
Bishop Davenport pass incomplete to Devin VoisinSimilar
Q4 7:41
2ND & 10
OPP 48
0
96.0%
Bishop Davenport pass incomplete to Kentrel BullockSimilar
Q4 7:29
3RD & 10
OPP 48
+7
96.0%
Kentrel Bullock run for 7 yds to the AUB 41Similar
Q4 6:47
4TH & 3
OPP 41
+4
96.3%
Bishop Davenport pass complete to Anthony Eager for 4 yds to the AUB 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:23
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+1
96.2%
Bishop Davenport pass complete to Anthony Eager for 1 yd to the AUB 36Similar
Q4 5:52
2ND & 9
OPP 36
+1
96.2%
Kentrel Bullock run for 1 yd to the AUB 35Similar
Q4 5:18
3RD & 8
OPP 35
+7
96.3%
Keenan Phillips run for 7 yds to the AUB 28Similar
Q4 4:52
4TH & 1
OPP 28
+4
97.4%
Bishop Davenport run for 4 yds to the AUB 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:10
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+1
97.1%
Kentrel Bullock run for 1 yd to the AUB 23Similar
Q4 3:40
2ND & 9
OPP 23
+2
97.1%
Kentrel Bullock run for 2 yds to the AUB 21Similar
Q4 3:03
3RD & 7
OPP 21
-1
97.4%
PJ Martin run for a loss of 1 yard to the AUB 22Similar
Q4 2:32
4TH & 8
OPP 22
0
97.6%
Bishop Davenport pass incomplete to Devin VoisinSimilar
Q4 2:32
4TH & 8
OPP 22
0
97.6%
Bishop Davenport pass incomplete to Devin VoisinSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 16END OF GAME
5 plays · 15 yds · 2:2698% → 99%
Q4 2:26
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+7
98.3%
Jeremiah Cobb run for 7 yds to the AUB 29Similar
Q4 1:54
2ND & 3
OWN 29
+10
98.7%
Jeremiah Cobb run for 10 yds to the AUB 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:14
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-1
98.8%
J. Arnold takes a kneeSimilar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 11
OWN 38
-1
98.8%
J. Arnold takes a kneeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:40
Jeremiah Cobb run for 2 yds for a TD (Alex McPherson KICK)
+3.5
TD · Q3 9:55
Bishop Davenport pass complete to Devin Voisin for 12 yds for a TD (Hamilton DiBoyan PAT MISSED)
-2.5
TD · Q2 5:24
Bishop Davenport pass complete to Jeremy Scott for 20 yds for a TD (Hamilton DiBoyan PAT MISSED)
-2.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com