ARDLINETry the model
WIS

Wisconsin 14 at Alabama 38

ALA
2025 · Week 3 · Sep 13, 2025 · Bryant-Denny Stadium
Speed4x
Win probability · ALA
modelALA aheadWIS aheadconfidence bandkey play
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4KEY PLAYKEY PLAYINTKEY PLAYTDTDKEY PLAYKEY PLAY
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
WIS · Drive 1PUNT · 8 plays · -4 yds
Q1 15:00
Conor Talty kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
91.6%
0.0
Q1 14:44
Danny O'Neil pass complete to Grant Stec for 9 yds to the WIS 34
90.0%
-1.6
Q1 14:18
Dilin Jones run for 3 yds to the WIS 37 for a 1ST down
90.0%
0.0
Q1 13:20
Danny O'Neil run for 2 yds to the WIS 39
90.0%
0.0
Q1 12:50
Trech Kekahuna run for 4 yds to the WIS 43
89.7%
-0.3
Q1 12:00
O'Neil, Danny pass complete to Brooks Jr., Chris for 7 yards to the 50 yardline, PENALTY WIS pass interference (Kekahuna, Trech) 15 yards to the WIS28, NO PLAY.
89.7%
0.0
Q1 11:55
Danny O'Neil sacked by LT Overton for a loss of 7 yards to the WIS 21
90.0%
+0.3
Q1 11:21
Atticus Bertrams punt for 49 yds , Cole Adams returns for 8 yds to the ALA 38
90.0%
0.0
ALA · Drive 2DOWNS · 5 plays · 8 yds
Q1 10:47
Kevin Riley run for no gain to the ALA 38
91.0%
+1.0
Q1 10:42
Alabama Penalty, False Start (Josh Cuevas) to the ALA 33
91.0%
0.0
Q1 9:56
Ty Simpson pass complete to Kevin Riley for 6 yds to the ALA 39
91.0%
0.0
Q1 9:30
Ty Simpson run for 7 yds to the ALA 46
91.0%
0.0
Q1 9:01
Ty Simpson pass incomplete to Germie Bernard
91.0%
0.0
WIS · Drive 3INT · 1 play · 0 yds
Q1 8:53
Danny O'Neil pass intercepted Bray Hubbard return for 3 yds to the ALA 39
88.8%
-2.1
ALA · Drive 4TD · 11 plays · 61 yds
Q1 8:20
Richard Young run for 1 yd to the ALA 40
90.9%
+2.1
Q1 8:10
Richard Young run for no gain to the ALA 40
90.9%
0.0
Q1 7:30
Ty Simpson pass complete to Ryan Williams for 24 yds to the WIS 36 for a 1ST down
90.9%
0.0
Q1 6:54
Ty Simpson pass complete to Germie Bernard for 5 yds to the WIS 31
91.3%
+0.4
Q1 6:00
Kevin Riley run for 3 yds to the WIS 28
90.7%
-0.6
Q1 5:18
Ty Simpson pass complete to Ryan Williams for 3 yds to the WIS 25 for a 1ST down
90.6%
-0.1
Q1 4:40
Ty Simpson pass complete to Lotzeir Brooks for 14 yds to the WIS 11 for a 1ST down
90.6%
0.0
Q1 4:20
Kevin Riley run for 2 yds to the WIS 9
90.6%
0.0
Q1 3:30
Ty Simpson run for 5 yds to the WIS 4
90.6%
0.0
Q1 2:55
Richard Young run for 2 yds to the WIS 2
90.6%
0.0
Q1 2:24
Germie Bernard run for 2 yds for a TD (Conor Talty KICK)
95.1%
+4.5
WIS · Drive 5PUNT · 8 plays · 2 yds
Q1 2:24
Conor Talty kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
95.1%
0.0
Q1 2:10
Danny O'Neil pass complete to Darrion Dupree for no gain to the WIS 25
94.4%
-0.7
Q1 1:15
Darrion Dupree run for 3 yds to the WIS 28
94.4%
0.0
Q1 1:00
Danny O'Neil pass complete to Darrion Dupree for 12 yds to the WIS 40 for a 1ST down
94.4%
0.0
Q1 0:01
Danny O'Neil pass complete to Darrion Dupree for 1 yd to the WIS 41
94.3%
-0.2
Q2 14:51
Danny O'Neil sacked by Qua Russaw for a loss of 5 yards to the WIS 36
94.3%
0.0
Q2 14:08
Danny O'Neil sacked by London Simmons for a loss of 9 yards to the WIS 27
94.2%
0.0
Q2 13:51
Atticus Bertrams punt for 40 yds , Cole Adams returns for 12 yds to the ALA 39 Alabama Penalty, Offensive Holding (Zabien Brown) to the ALA 35
94.3%
+0.1
ALA · Drive 6TD · 4 plays · 65 yds
Q2 13:00
Ty Simpson pass complete to Josh Cuevas for 9 yds to the ALA 44
95.0%
+0.7
Q2 12:45
Ty Simpson sacked by Christian Alliegro for a loss of 14 yards to the ALA 30
95.1%
+0.1
Q2 12:25
Ty Simpson pass complete to Isaiah Horton for 12 yds to the WIS 42 for a 1ST down Wisconsin Penalty, Roughing Holder (Mason Reiger) to the WIS 43 for a 1ST down
95.1%
0.0
Q2 12:05
Ty Simpson pass complete to Germie Bernard for 43 yds for a TD (Conor Talty KICK)
98.6%
+3.5
WIS · Drive 7PUNT · 12 plays · 32 yds
Q2 12:05
Conor Talty kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
98.5%
0.0
Q2 11:40
Dilin Jones run for 1 yd to the WIS 26
97.7%
-0.8
Q2 11:05
Danny O'Neil run for 4 yds to the WIS 30
97.7%
0.0
Q2 10:30
Danny O'Neil pass complete to Lance Mason for 19 yds to the WIS 49 for a 1ST down
97.7%
0.0
Q2 9:50
Jones, Dilin rush for 1 yard to the 50 yardline, PENALTY ALA illegal procedure (TEAM) 5 yards to the ALA46, NO PLAY.
97.6%
-0.1
Q2 9:10
Danny O'Neil pass complete to Dilin Jones for 3 yds to the ALA 43
97.6%
0.0
Q2 8:40
Cade Yacamelli run for 2 yds to the ALA 41 for a 1ST down
97.6%
0.0
Q2 7:57
Kekahuna, Trech rush for 3 yards to the ALA38, PENALTY WIS personal foul (Brunner, Joe) 15 yards to the WIS44, NO PLAY.
97.5%
-0.1
Q2 7:25
Danny O'Neil run for 4 yds to the WIS 48
97.6%
+0.1
Q2 7:25
Tyrell Henry run for 3 yds to the ALA 49
97.5%
0.0
Q2 5:55
Dilin Jones run for 6 yds to the ALA 43
97.5%
0.0
Q2 5:43
Atticus Bertrams punt for 41 yds, downed at the ALA 2
97.5%
0.0
ALA · Drive 8TD · 9 plays · 98 yds
Q2 5:00
Kevin Riley run for 11 yds to the ALA 13 for a 1ST down
98.5%
+0.9
Q2 4:44
Kevin Riley run for 1 yd to the ALA 14
98.5%
0.0
Q2 3:54
Ty Simpson pass complete to Isaiah Horton for 6 yds to the ALA 20
98.5%
0.0
Q2 3:00
Simpson, Ty pass complete to Bernard, Germie for 6 yards to the ALA26, PENALTY WIS holding (Agard, Omillio) 10 yards to the ALA30, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN ALA.
98.5%
0.0
Q2 2:38
Ty Simpson pass complete to Ryan Williams for 22 yds to the WIS 48 for a 1ST down
98.5%
0.0
Q2 2:15
Ty Simpson run for no gain to the WIS 48
98.5%
0.0
Q2 1:33
Ty Simpson pass complete to Lotzeir Brooks for 16 yds to the WIS 32 for a 1ST down
98.5%
0.0
Q2 1:04
Ty Simpson pass complete to Kevin Riley for 19 yds to the WIS 13 for a 1ST down
98.7%
+0.2
Q2 0:45
Ty Simpson pass complete to Isaiah Horton for 13 yds for a TD (Conor Talty KICK)
99.5%
+0.8
WIS · Drive 9END OF HALF · 2 plays · 4 yds
Q2 0:45
Conor Talty kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
99.5%
0.0
Q2 0:01
Darrion Dupree run for 4 yds to the WIS 29
99.2%
-0.3
ALA · Drive 10TD · 3 plays · 75 yds
Q3 15:00
Nathanial Vakos kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
99.2%
0.0
Q3 14:45
Ty Simpson pass complete to Ryan Williams for 75 yds for a TD (Conor Talty KICK)
99.8%
+0.5
Q3 14:45
Alabama Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Mal Waldrep Jr.) to the ALA 20
99.5%
-0.2
WIS · Drive 11TD · 1 play · 0 yds
Q3 14:32
Conor Talty kickoff for 75 yds , Vinny Anthony II return for 95 yds for a TD (Nathanial Vakos KICK)
99.5%
0.0
ALA · Drive 12TD · 8 plays · 87 yds
Q3 14:32
Nathanial Vakos kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback Alabama Penalty, Personal Foul (QB Reese)
99.2%
-0.3
Q3 14:24
Ty Simpson pass incomplete to Josh Cuevas
99.5%
+0.3
Q3 13:40
Ty Simpson pass complete to Isaiah Horton for 11 yds to the ALA 24 for a 1ST down
99.5%
0.0
Q3 13:04
Ty Simpson run for 8 yds to the ALA 32
99.6%
+0.1
Q3 12:25
Ty Simpson pass complete to Josh Cuevas for 8 yds to the ALA 40 for a 1ST down
99.6%
0.0
Q3 11:53
Ty Simpson run for 19 yds to the WIS 41 for a 1ST down
99.6%
0.0
Q3 11:10
Richard Young run for no gain to the WIS 41
99.6%
0.0
Q3 11:02
Ty Simpson pass complete to Ryan Williams for 41 yds for a TD (Conor Talty KICK)
99.8%
+0.2
WIS · Drive 13INT · 13 plays · 54 yds
Q3 11:02
Conor Talty kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
99.8%
0.0
Q3 10:45
Dilin Jones run for 8 yds to the WIS 33
99.6%
-0.2
Q3 10:08
Danny O'Neil pass complete to Dilin Jones for 5 yds to the WIS 38 for a 1ST down
99.6%
0.0
Q3 9:34
Danny O'Neil pass incomplete to Vinny Anthony II
99.6%
0.0
Q3 9:34
Timeout Alabama, clock 09:34
99.6%
0.0
Q3 9:05
Dilin Jones run for 7 yds to the WIS 45
99.6%
0.0
Q3 8:45
Wisconsin Penalty, Illegal Procedure (Jake Renfro) to the WIS 40
99.6%
0.0
Q3 7:46
Danny O'Neil pass complete to Lance Mason for 11 yds to the ALA 49 for a 1ST down
99.6%
0.0
Q3 7:10
Tyrell Henry run for 5 yds to the ALA 44
99.6%
0.0
Q3 6:25
Danny O'Neil pass complete to Vinny Anthony II for 8 yds to the ALA 36 for a 1ST down
99.6%
0.0
Q3 6:08
Danny O'Neil run for 11 yds to the ALA 25 for a 1ST down
99.6%
0.0
Q3 5:35
Darrion Dupree run for 4 yds to the ALA 21
99.6%
0.0
Q3 4:56
Danny O'Neil pass intercepted Bray Hubbard return for 5 yds to the ALA 13
99.7%
0.0
ALA · Drive 14FG · 13 plays · 73 yds
Q3 4:16
Dre Washington run for 8 yds to the ALA 21
99.9%
+0.2
Q3 3:38
Ty Simpson pass complete to Germie Bernard for 19 yds to the ALA 40 for a 1ST down
99.9%
0.0
Q3 2:59
Ty Simpson pass complete to Dre Washington for 15 yds to the WIS 45 for a 1ST down
99.9%
0.0
Q3 2:45
Dre Washington run for 5 yds to the WIS 40
99.9%
0.0
Q3 2:00
Ty Simpson pass complete to Isaiah Horton for 6 yds to the WIS 34 for a 1ST down
99.9%
0.0
Q3 1:18
Ty Simpson pass complete to Josh Cuevas for 5 yds to the WIS 29
99.9%
0.0
Q3 0:10
Ty Simpson pass complete to Kevin Riley for 3 yds to the WIS 26
99.9%
0.0
Q3 0:01
Simpson, Ty pass incomplete to Bernard, Germie, PENALTY WIS offside (Suggs, Jay'viar) 5 yards to the WIS21, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN ALA.
99.9%
0.0
Q3 0:00
Ty Simpson pass complete to Kaleb Edwards for 12 yds to the WIS 9 for a 1ST down
99.9%
0.0
Q4 14:55
Ty Simpson pass incomplete to Josh Cuevas
99.9%
0.0
Q4 14:10
Ty Simpson pass complete to Germie Bernard for a loss of 5 yards to the WIS 14
99.9%
0.0
Q4 13:59
Ty Simpson pass incomplete to Ryan Williams
99.9%
0.0
Q4 13:56
Conor Talty 33 yd FG GOOD
99.9%
0.0
WIS · Drive 15PUNT · 9 plays · -2 yds
Q4 13:56
Conor Talty kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
99.9%
0.0
Q4 13:49
Darrion Dupree run for 3 yds to the WIS 28
99.7%
-0.2
Q4 13:00
Danny O'Neil run for 6 yds to the WIS 34
99.7%
0.0
Q4 12:38
Danny O'Neil pass incomplete to Chris Brooks Jr.
99.7%
0.0
Q4 12:25
Jackson Acker run for 1 yd to the WIS 35 for a 1ST down
99.7%
0.0
Q4 11:50
Danny O'Neil pass incomplete to Darrion Dupree
99.7%
0.0
Q4 11:43
Danny O'Neil pass incomplete to Jayden Ballard
99.7%
0.0
Q4 11:10
Danny O'Neil sacked by Yhonzae Pierre for a loss of 12 yards to the WIS 23
99.7%
0.0
Q4 10:54
Atticus Bertrams punt for 53 yds , Cole Adams returns for a loss of 1 yard to the ALA 23
99.7%
0.0
ALA · Drive 16PUNT · 5 plays · -2 yds
Q4 10:38
Kevin Riley run for 2 yds to the ALA 25
99.9%
+0.2
Q4 9:50
Kevin Riley run for 1 yd to the ALA 26
99.9%
0.0
Q4 9:34
Ty Simpson pass incomplete to Lotzeir Brooks
99.9%
0.0
Q4 9:34
Alabama Penalty, False Start (TEAM) to the ALA 21
99.9%
0.0
Q4 9:27
Blake Doud punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Tyrell Henry at the WIS 30
99.9%
0.0
WIS · Drive 17TD · 7 plays · 70 yds
Q4 9:00
Cade Yacamelli run for 6 yds to the WIS 36
99.7%
-0.1
Q4 8:25
Cade Yacamelli run for 1 yd to the WIS 37
99.7%
0.0
Q4 7:22
Danny O'Neil pass complete to Jackson Acker for 8 yds to the WIS 45 for a 1ST down
99.7%
0.0
Q4 7:00
Cade Yacamelli run for 9 yds to the ALA 46
99.7%
0.0
Q4 6:15
Danny O'Neil run for 2 yds to the ALA 44 for a 1ST down
99.7%
0.0
Q4 5:45
Danny O'Neil run for 3 yds to the ALA 41
99.7%
0.0
Q4 5:29
Danny O'Neil pass complete to Jayden Ballard for 41 yds for a TD (Nathanial Vakos KICK)
99.6%
-0.1
ALA · Drive 18PUNT · 6 plays · 4 yds
Q4 5:29
Nathanial Vakos kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
99.6%
0.0
Q4 4:50
AK Dear run for 5 yds to the ALA 30
99.8%
+0.2
Q4 4:38
AK Dear run for 4 yds to the ALA 34
99.8%
0.0
Q4 4:06
Dear, AK rush for 28 yards to the WIS38, PENALTY ALA illegal formation 5 yards to the ALA29, NO PLAY.
99.8%
0.0
Q4 3:38
Austin Mack pass incomplete to Rico Scott
99.8%
0.0
Q4 3:31
Blake Doud punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Tyrell Henry at the WIS 29
99.8%
0.0
WIS · Drive 19END OF GAME · 6 plays · 23 yds
Q4 2:55
Darrion Dupree run for 4 yds to the WIS 33
99.6%
-0.1
Q4 2:35
Darrion Dupree run for 5 yds to the WIS 38
99.7%
+0.1
Q4 2:00
Darrion Dupree run for 3 yds to the WIS 41 for a 1ST down
99.7%
0.0
Q4 1:53
Cade Yacamelli run for 3 yds to the WIS 44
99.7%
0.0
Q4 1:00
Trech Kekahuna run for no gain to the WIS 44
99.7%
0.0
Q4 0:03
Danny O'Neil run for 8 yds to the ALA 48 for a 1ST down
99.6%
0.0
Biggest swings
TD · Q1 2:24
Germie Bernard run for 2 yds for a TD (Conor Talty KICK)
+4.5
TD · Q2 12:05
Ty Simpson pass complete to Germie Bernard for 43 yds for a TD (Conor Talty KICK)
+3.5
INT · Q1 8:53
Danny O'Neil pass intercepted Bray Hubbard return for 3 yds to the ALA 39
-2.1
YardLine · model v3Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com