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USU

Utah State 22 at Texas A&M 44

TA&M
2025 · Week 2 · Sep 6, 2025 · Kyle Field
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Win probability · TA&M
modelTA&M aheadUSU aheadconfidence bandkey playTA&M scoreUSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:20 · TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the TA&M 32
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+48.5+24.30−24.3−48.5Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 12:01: Marcel Reed run for 1 yd for a TD (Jared Zirkel KICK) — TA&M win probability +1.1 pts (now 97%) (top driver: TA&M has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 3:18: Le'Veon Moss run for 21 yds for a TD (Jared Zirkel KICK) — TA&M win probability +1.1 pts (now 97%) (top driver: TA&M has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 0:16: Marcel Reed pass complete to KC Concepcion for 12 yds for a TD (Jared Zirkel PAT MISSED) — TA&M win probability +1.3 pts (now 99%) (top driver: TA&M has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 12:45: Bryson Barnes pass complete to Braden Pegan for 16 yds for a TD (Bryson Barnes pass to Javen Jacobs for Two-Point Conversion) — USU win probability +3.0 pts (now 5%) (top driver: USU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 6:07: Marcel Reed pass complete to KC Concepcion for 8 yds for a TD (Jared Zirkel KICK) — TA&M win probability +1.3 pts (now 99%) (top driver: TA&M has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TA&M made the numbers' call on 6 of 7USU made the numbers' call on 9 of 9
  1. Q1 13:09TA&M 4th & 5 at TA&M 42, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.5%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:05USU 4th & 8 at USU 22, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.6%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.7%
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:02USU 4th & 3 at TA&M 3, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.2%
    44% to convert
    Field goal
    3.1%−0.1
    93% to make
    Punt
    2.7%−0.6
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:55TA&M 4th & 14 at USU 20, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 95.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.6%−0.1
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    95.7%
    75% to make
    Punt
    95.3%−0.4
    average punt
  5. Q1 0:56USU 4th & 6 at USU 39, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.5%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.5%
    average punt
  6. Q2 14:27TA&M 4th & 1 at USU 43, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 95.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    95.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    94.9%−0.3
    28% to make
    Punt
    94.9%−0.2
    average punt
  7. Q2 8:21TA&M 4th & 1 at USU 27, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 95.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    95.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    95.2%−0.4
    62% to make
    Punt
    94.4%−1.2
    average punt
  8. Q2 6:37USU 4th & 24 at USU 14, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.2%−0.3
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.6%
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:41USU 4th & 8 at USU 37, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.1%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.2%
    average punt
  10. Q3 11:31TA&M 4th & 4 at USU 44, up 16
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 96.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    96.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    95.5%−0.6
    27% to make
    Punt
    95.8%−0.2
    average punt
  11. Q3 10:38USU 4th & 15 at USU 39, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.9%−0.4
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.3%
    average punt
  12. Q3 4:16USU 4th & 5 at USU 46, down 23
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.3%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.3%
    average punt
  13. Q3 0:16USU 4th & 8 at TA&M 49, down 23
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.9%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.0%
    average punt
  14. Q4 11:46USU 4th & 10 at USU 36, down 30
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  15. Q4 7:45TA&M 4th & 17 at USU 33, up 30
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%−0.1
    14% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.9%
    49% to make
    Punt
    99.9%−0.1
    average punt
  16. Q4 3:08TA&M 4th & 3 at TA&M 39, up 22
    Close callPunted · 99.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.4%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TA&M made the numbers' call on 6 of 6USU made the numbers' call on 1 of 3
  1. Q1 10:51TA&M Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 7:02USU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    3.6%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    3.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 12:01TA&M Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 3:18TA&M Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:16TA&M Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    98.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 12:45USU Touchdown, down 18 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    2.8%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    2.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 6:07TA&M Touchdown, up 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 13:36TA&M Touchdown, up 29 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 4:24USU Touchdown, down 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · converted
    Kick
    0.6%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    0.6%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TA&MDrive 1PUNT
7 plays · 32 yds · 1:3998% → 98%
Q1 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+10
98.4%
Le'Veon Moss run for 10 yds to the TA&M 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:15
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+17
98.4%
Le'Veon Moss run for 2 yds to the TA&M 22 for a 1ST down Utah State Penalty, Personal Foul (Carson Tujague) to the TA&M 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
98.3%
Marcel Reed pass incomplete to Le'Veon MossSimilar
Q1 13:53
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+5
98.3%
Le'Veon Moss run for 5 yds to the TA&M 42Similar
Q1 13:17
3RD & 5
OWN 42
0
98.3%
Marcel Reed pass incomplete to Ashton Bethel-RomanSimilar
Q1 13:09
4TH & 5
OWN 42
0
98.2%
Tyler White punt for 58 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:582% → 2%
Q1 13:03
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
98.2%
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Javen Jacobs for a loss of 1 yard to the USU 19Similar
Q1 12:36
2ND & 11
OWN 19
+3
98.2%
Bryson Barnes run for 3 yds to the USU 22Similar
Q1 12:14
3RD & 8
OWN 22
0
98.1%
Bryson Barnes pass incomplete to Braden PeganSimilar
Q1 12:05
4TH & 8
OWN 22
+13
98.1%
Landon Rehkow punt for 46 yds , KC Concepcion returns for 13 yds to the TA&M 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 3TD
3 plays · 55 yds · 1:0398% → 98%
Q1 11:54
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+12
98.1%
Marcel Reed pass complete to KC Concepcion for 12 yds to the USU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:29
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+9
98.1%
Rueben Owens II run for 9 yds to the USU 34Similar
Q1 10:51
2ND & 1
OPP 34
+34
98.1%
Marcel Reed pass complete to Terry Bussey for 34 yds for a TD (Jared Zirkel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 4TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 3:432% → 3%
Q1 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
98.1%
Barnes, Bryson pass incomplete to Lane, Broc, PENALTY TA&M roughing passer (York, Taurean) 15 yards to the UTAHST40, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN UTAHST.Similar
Q1 10:40
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+6
98.1%
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Javen Jacobs for 6 yds to the USU 46Similar
Q1 10:08
2ND & 4
OWN 46
+10
98.0%
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Brady Boyd for 10 yds to the TA&M 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:32
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+24
97.9%
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Brady Boyd for 24 yds to the TA&M 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:09
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+9
97.9%
Bryson Barnes run for 9 yds to the TA&M 11Similar
Q1 8:52
2ND & 1
OPP 11
+3
97.8%
Javen Jacobs run for 3 yds to the TA&M 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-2
97.8%
Bryson Barnes run for a loss of 2 yards to the TA&M 10Similar
Q1 7:48
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
0
97.7%
Bryson Barnes pass incomplete to Brady BoydSimilar
Q1 7:42
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
+7
97.7%
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Braden Pegan for 7 yds to the TA&M 3Similar
Q1 7:02
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
97.5%
Anthony Garcia pass complete to Miles Davis for 3 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 5FG
11 plays · 55 yds · 4:0198% → 97%
Q1 6:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
97.5%
Le'Veon Moss run for 4 yds to the TA&M 29Similar
Q1 6:25
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+6
97.4%
Le'Veon Moss run for 6 yds to the TA&M 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:48
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+13
97.3%
Marcel Reed pass complete to Theo Melin hrstrm for 13 yds to the TA&M 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:09
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+15
97.3%
Reed, Marcel pass incomplete to Bethel-Roman, Ashton, PENALTY UTAHST pass interference (Tucker, Dylan) 15 yards to the UTAHST37, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN TA&M.Similar
Q1 5:02
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+21
97.3%
Marcel Reed run for 21 yds to the USU 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:25
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
97.3%
Marcel Reed pass incomplete to Amari NiblackSimilar
Q1 4:20
2ND & 10
OPP 16
-2
97.3%
Amari Daniels run for a loss of 2 yards to the USU 18Similar
Q1 3:50
3RD & 12
OPP 18
+5
97.1%
Utah State Penalty, Offside Defense (Carson Tujague) to the USU 13Similar
Q1 3:27
3RD & 7
OPP 13
-7
97.1%
Marcel Reed sacked by John Miller for a loss of 7 yards to the USU 20Similar
Q1 2:55
4TH & 14
OPP 20
+37
96.9%
Jared Zirkel 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 6PUNT
7 plays · 14 yds · 1:523% → 3%
Q1 2:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
96.9%
Bryson Barnes run for 5 yds to the USU 30Similar
Q1 2:20
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+5
96.8%
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Miles Davis for 5 yds to the USU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
96.7%
Miles Davis run for 3 yds to the USU 38Similar
Q1 1:20
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+1
96.5%
Bryson Barnes run for 1 yd to the USU 39Similar
Q1 1:02
3RD & 6
OWN 39
0
96.5%
Bryson Barnes pass incomplete to Javen JacobsSimilar
Q1 0:56
4TH & 6
OWN 39
0
96.6%
Landon Rehkow punt for 24 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TA&M 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 7TD
11 plays · 63 yds · 3:4497% → 97%
Q1 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+11
96.6%
Marcel Reed run for 11 yds to the TA&M 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:16
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
96.6%
Marcel Reed pass incomplete to Mario CraverSimilar
Q1 0:08
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+7
96.5%
Le'Veon Moss run for 7 yds to the USU 45Similar
Q2 14:55
3RD & 3
OPP 45
+2
96.5%
Rueben Owens II run for 2 yds to the USU 43Similar
Q2 14:27
4TH & 1
OPP 43
+3
96.3%
Rueben Owens II run for 3 yds to the USU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:03
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+5
96.4%
Utah State Penalty, Offside Defense (Tyree Morris) to the USU 35Similar
Q2 13:42
1ST & 5
OPP 35
+15
96.4%
Marcel Reed pass complete to KC Concepcion for 15 yds to the USU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:57
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+6
96.2%
Marcel Reed pass complete to Ashton Bethel-Roman for 6 yds to the USU 14Similar
Q2 12:20
2ND & 4
OPP 14
0
96.1%
Marcel Reed pass incomplete to Amari NiblackSimilar
Q2 12:14
3RD & 4
OPP 14
+13
96.0%
Marcel Reed pass complete to Rueben Owens II for 11 yds to the USU 3 for a 1ST down Utah State Penalty, Personal Foul (Carson Tujague) to the USU 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
97.1%
Marcel Reed run for 1 yd for a TD (Jared Zirkel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · -21 yds · 2:103% → 3%
Q2 11:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-6
96.7%
Bryson Barnes sacked by Cashius Howell for a loss of 6 yards to the USU 19Similar
Q2 11:21
2ND & 16
OWN 19
-7
96.7%
Bryson Barnes sacked by Cashius Howell for a loss of 7 yards to the USU 12Similar
Q2 10:45
3RD & 23
OWN 12
-8
96.7%
Bryson Barnes sacked by Cashius Howell for a loss of 8 yards to the USU 4Similar
Q2 9:46
4TH & 31
OWN 4
+32
96.7%
Landon Rehkow punt for 37 yds, downed at the USU 41 Utah State Penalty, Illegal Formation (-5 Yards) to the USU 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 9DOWNS
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:2097% → 97%
Q2 9:41
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
96.9%
Marcel Reed pass incomplete to Terry BusseySimilar
Q2 9:35
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+3
96.9%
Marcel Reed run for 3 yds to the USU 33Similar
Q2 8:59
3RD & 7
OPP 33
+6
96.7%
Marcel Reed run for 6 yds to the USU 27Similar
Q2 8:21
4TH & 1
OPP 27
-1
96.5%
Rueben Owens II run for a loss of 1 yard to the USU 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · -14 yds · 1:384% → 4%
Q2 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
96.2%
Miles Davis run for no gain to the USU 28Similar
Q2 7:38
2ND & 10
OWN 28
0
96.3%
Bryson Barnes pass incomplete to Brady BoydSimilar
Q2 7:30
3RD & 10
OWN 28
-9
96.3%
Bryson Barnes sacked by Scooby Williams for a loss of 9 yards to the USU 19 Bryson Barnes fumbled, forced by Scooby Williams, recovered by USU Javen Jacobs , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q2 6:44
4TH & 19
OWN 19
-5
96.4%
Utah State Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the USU 14Similar
Q2 6:37
4TH & 24
OWN 14
0
96.4%
Landon Rehkow punt for 49 yds, fair catch by KC Concepcion at the TA&M 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 11TD
7 plays · 63 yds · 3:1496% → 97%
Q2 6:32
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
96.4%
Le'Veon Moss run for 4 yds to the TA&M 41Similar
Q2 5:50
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+18
96.4%
Rueben Owens II run for 18 yds to the USU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+11
96.2%
Marcel Reed pass complete to KC Concepcion for 11 yds to the USU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:25
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+9
96.1%
Amari Daniels run for 9 yds to the USU 21Similar
Q2 3:50
2ND & 1
OPP 21
0
96.1%
Amari Daniels run for no gain to the USU 21Similar
Q2 3:18
3RD & 1
OPP 21
+21
97.2%
Le'Veon Moss run for 21 yds for a TD (Jared Zirkel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 12PUNT
7 plays · 12 yds · 1:293% → 3%
Q2 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
97.2%
Miles Davis run for 4 yds to the USU 29Similar
Q2 2:42
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+6
97.1%
Javen Jacobs run for 6 yds to the USU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:08
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
97.0%
Bryson Barnes run for 2 yds to the USU 37Similar
Q2 1:56
2ND & 8
OWN 37
0
97.0%
Bryson Barnes pass incomplete to Braden PeganSimilar
Q2 1:50
3RD & 8
OWN 37
0
97.0%
Bryson Barnes pass incomplete to Brady BoydSimilar
Q2 1:41
4TH & 8
OWN 37
+5
97.1%
Landon Rehkow punt for 45 yds , KC Concepcion returns for 5 yds to the TA&M 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 13TD
9 plays · 77 yds · 1:2097% → 99%
Q2 1:36
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
97.0%
Marcel Reed pass incomplete to Ashton Bethel-RomanSimilar
Q2 1:26
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+6
97.0%
EJ Smith run for 6 yds to the TA&M 29Similar
Q2 0:56
3RD & 4
OWN 29
+17
96.9%
Marcel Reed pass complete to Ashton Bethel-Roman for 17 yds to the TA&M 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+15
97.2%
Marcel Reed pass complete to Mario Craver for 15 yds to the USU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:38
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+3
97.2%
Marcel Reed pass complete to Theo Melin hrstrm for 3 yds to the USU 36Similar
Q2 0:30
2ND & 7
OPP 36
+24
97.2%
Marcel Reed run for 24 yds to the USU 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:22
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
97.0%
Marcel Reed run for no gain to the USU 12Similar
Q2 0:16
2ND & 10
OPP 12
+12
98.8%
Marcel Reed pass complete to KC Concepcion for 12 yds for a TD (Jared Zirkel PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 14END OF HALF
2 plays · 3 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q2 0:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
98.3%
Miles Davis run for 3 yds to the USU 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 15TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 2:082% → 5%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+30
98.5%
Miles Davis run for 30 yds to the TA&M 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:28
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
98.3%
Bryson Barnes pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:23
2ND & 10
OPP 45
0
98.4%
Bryson Barnes pass incomplete to Braden PeganSimilar
Q3 14:16
3RD & 10
OPP 45
+10
98.4%
Barnes, Bryson pass incomplete to Pegan, Braden, PENALTY TA&M holding (Lee III, Will) 10 yards to the TA&M35, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN UTAHST.Similar
Q3 14:07
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+4
98.2%
Bryson Barnes run for 4 yds to the TA&M 31Similar
Q3 13:45
2ND & 6
OPP 31
+3
98.0%
Miles Davis run for 3 yds to the TA&M 28Similar
Q3 13:13
3RD & 3
OPP 28
-5
98.4%
Utah State Penalty, Illegal Formation (-5 Yards) to the TA&M 33Similar
Q3 12:56
3RD & 8
OPP 33
+17
98.5%
Miles Davis run for 2 yds to the TA&M 31 for a 1ST down Texas A&M Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Albert Regis) to the TA&M 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:45
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+16
95.5%
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Braden Pegan for 16 yds for a TD (Bryson Barnes pass to Javen Jacobs for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 16DOWNS
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:5997% → 97%
Q3 12:30
1ST & 10
50
+2
96.9%
Marcel Reed pass complete to Mario Craver for 2 yds to the USU 48Similar
Q3 12:05
2ND & 8
OPP 48
+4
96.9%
Le'Veon Moss run for 4 yds to the USU 44Similar
Q3 11:35
3RD & 4
OPP 44
0
96.8%
Marcel Reed pass incomplete to KC ConcepcionSimilar
Q3 11:31
4TH & 4
OPP 44
0
96.6%
Marcel Reed pass incomplete to KC ConcepcionSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · -5 yds · 0:484% → 4%
Q3 11:26
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
95.9%
Bryson Barnes pass incomplete to Anthony GarciaSimilar
Q3 11:21
2ND & 10
OWN 44
-7
96.0%
Bryson Barnes sacked by Marco Jones for a loss of 7 yards to the USU 37 Utah State Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Bryson Barnes) to the USU 37Similar
Q3 11:14
3RD & 17
OWN 37
+2
96.5%
Bryson Barnes run for 2 yds to the USU 39Similar
Q3 10:38
4TH & 15
OWN 39
0
96.5%
Landon Rehkow punt for 61 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 18TD
9 plays · 80 yds · 4:2397% → 99%
Q3 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
96.8%
Marcel Reed pass complete to Terry Bussey for 6 yds to the TA&M 26Similar
Q3 9:55
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+9
96.8%
Marcel Reed pass complete to Terry Bussey for 9 yds to the TA&M 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
96.8%
Le'Veon Moss run for 5 yds to the TA&M 40Similar
Q3 8:50
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+19
97.0%
Marcel Reed pass complete to Mario Craver for 19 yds to the USU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:30
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+6
97.0%
Marcel Reed run for 6 yds to the USU 35Similar
Q3 8:02
2ND & 4
OPP 35
+15
97.4%
Marcel Reed pass complete to KC Concepcion for 15 yds to the USU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:25
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+6
97.4%
Marcel Reed pass complete to Mario Craver for 6 yds to the USU 14Similar
Q3 6:45
2ND & 4
OPP 14
+6
97.5%
Rueben Owens II run for 6 yds to the USU 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
98.8%
Marcel Reed pass complete to KC Concepcion for 8 yds for a TD (Jared Zirkel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 19PUNT
8 plays · 21 yds · 1:461% → 1%
Q3 6:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
98.8%
Miles Davis run for 3 yds to the USU 28Similar
Q3 5:41
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-5
98.7%
Utah State Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the USU 23Similar
Q3 5:18
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+18
98.8%
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Javen Jacobs for 18 yds to the USU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:58
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
98.8%
Bryson Barnes pass incomplete to Brady BoydSimilar
Q3 4:50
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+5
98.8%
Javen Jacobs run for 5 yds to the USU 46Similar
Q3 4:24
3RD & 5
OWN 46
0
98.8%
Bryson Barnes pass incomplete to Brady BoydSimilar
Q3 4:16
4TH & 5
OWN 46
0
98.9%
Landon Rehkow punt for 36 yds, fair catch by KC Concepcion at the TA&M 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 20INT
6 plays · 35 yds · 2:4599% → 99%
Q3 4:11
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+6
98.9%
Marcel Reed pass complete to Terry Bussey for 6 yds to the TA&M 24Similar
Q3 3:44
2ND & 4
OWN 24
+1
98.9%
Marcel Reed run for 1 yd to the TA&M 25Similar
Q3 3:20
3RD & 3
OWN 25
+3
99.1%
Rueben Owens II run for 3 yds to the TA&M 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+25
99.1%
Miles O'Neill pass complete to Ashton Bethel-Roman for 25 yds to the USU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:50
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
99.2%
Miles O'Neill run for no gain to the USU 47Similar
Q3 1:26
2ND & 10
OPP 47
-9
99.2%
Miles O'Neill pass intercepted Noah Avinger return for 9 yds to the USU 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:041% → 1%
Q3 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+2
99.1%
Miles Davis run for 2 yds to the TA&M 49Similar
Q3 0:48
2ND & 8
OPP 49
0
99.1%
Noah White run for no gain to the TA&M 49Similar
Q3 0:23
3RD & 8
OPP 49
0
99.2%
Bryson Barnes pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:16
4TH & 8
OPP 49
0
99.2%
Landon Rehkow punt for 32 yds, fair catch by KC Concepcion at the TA&M 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 22TD
4 plays · 83 yds · 1:3299% → 100%
Q3 0:08
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+9
99.2%
Amari Daniels run for 9 yds to the TA&M 26Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 1
OWN 26
-1
99.2%
Amari Daniels run for a loss of 1 yard to the TA&M 25Similar
Q4 14:14
3RD & 2
OWN 25
+3
99.2%
Amari Daniels run for 3 yds to the TA&M 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:36
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+72
99.9%
Miles O'Neill pass complete to Mario Craver for 72 yds for a TD (Jared Zirkel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 23PUNT
6 plays · 20 yds · 1:380% → 0%
Q4 13:24
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+20
99.9%
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Brady Boyd for 20 yds to the USU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:01
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-2
99.9%
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Broc Lane for a loss of 2 yards to the USU 34Similar
Q4 12:22
2ND & 12
OWN 34
+2
99.9%
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Javen Jacobs for 2 yds to the USU 36Similar
Q4 11:52
3RD & 10
OWN 36
0
99.9%
Bryson Barnes pass incomplete to Braden PeganSimilar
Q4 11:46
4TH & 10
OWN 36
0
99.9%
Landon Rehkow punt for 34 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TA&M 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 24MISSED FG
8 plays · 37 yds · 3:50100% → 100%
Q4 11:35
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+8
99.9%
EJ Smith run for 8 yds to the TA&M 38Similar
Q4 11:00
2ND & 2
OWN 38
+11
99.9%
EJ Smith run for 11 yds to the TA&M 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:22
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+3
99.9%
Jamarion Morrow run for 3 yds to the USU 48Similar
Q4 9:49
2ND & 7
OPP 48
+22
99.9%
Jamarion Morrow run for 22 yds to the USU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:09
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
99.9%
Miles O'Neill pass incomplete to Micah RileySimilar
Q4 9:02
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+2
99.9%
Miles O'Neill pass complete to Kelshaun Johnson for 2 yds to the USU 24Similar
Q4 8:22
3RD & 8
OPP 24
-9
99.9%
Miles O'Neill sacked by John Miller for a loss of 9 yards to the USU 33Similar
Q4 7:45
4TH & 17
OPP 33
+50
99.9%
Randy Bond 50 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 25TD
9 plays · 67 yds · 3:110% → 1%
Q4 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+18
99.9%
Bryson Barnes run for 18 yds to the TA&M 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:13
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+3
99.9%
Javen Jacobs run for 3 yds to the TA&M 46Similar
Q4 6:40
2ND & 7
OPP 46
+6
99.9%
Javen Jacobs run for 6 yds to the TA&M 40Similar
Q4 6:19
3RD & 1
OPP 40
+2
99.9%
Javen Jacobs run for 2 yds to the TA&M 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:47
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+36
99.9%
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Kahanu Davis for 36 yds to the TA&M 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
99.9%
Javen Jacobs run for no gain to the TA&M 2Similar
Q4 5:02
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
99.9%
Bryson Barnes run for 1 yd to the TA&M 1Similar
Q4 4:24
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.3%
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Miles Davis for 1 yd for a TD (Bryson Barnes pass to Braden Pegan for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 26PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:07100% → 100%
Q4 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+5
99.6%
Jamarion Morrow run for 5 yds to the TA&M 37Similar
Q4 3:46
2ND & 5
OWN 37
+2
99.6%
Jamarion Morrow run for 2 yds to the TA&M 39Similar
Q4 3:13
3RD & 3
OWN 39
0
99.6%
Brady Hart pass incomplete to Kiotti ArmstrongSimilar
Q4 3:08
4TH & 3
OWN 39
0
99.6%
Tyler White punt for 16 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the USU 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 27FUMBLE
8 plays · 18 yds · 1:341% → 1%
Q4 2:58
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+14
99.4%
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Brady Boyd for 14 yds to the TA&M 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:40
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+4
99.4%
Barnes, Bryson pass incomplete to Jacobs, Javen, PENALTY TA&M pass interference (Mikhail, Noah) 4 yards to the TA&M37, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN UTAHST.Similar
Q4 2:33
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+4
99.4%
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Brady Boyd for 4 yds to the TA&M 33Similar
Q4 2:00
2ND & 6
OPP 33
+15
99.3%
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Brady Boyd for 15 yds to the TA&M 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:56
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
99.3%
Bryson Barnes pass incomplete to Brady BoydSimilar
Q4 1:50
2ND & 10
OPP 18
0
99.3%
Bryson Barnes pass incomplete to Javen JacobsSimilar
Q4 1:43
3RD & 10
OPP 18
-9
99.4%
Javen Jacobs run for 1 yd to the TA&M 17 Utah State Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the TA&M 27Similar
Q4 1:24
3RD & 19
OPP 27
-10
99.4%
Bryson Barnes sacked by Sam M'Pemba for a loss of 10 yards to the TA&M 37 Bryson Barnes fumbled, forced by Sam M'Pemba, recovered by TA&M Sam M'Pemba , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 28END OF GAME
3 plays · -5 yds · 0:58100% → 100%
Q4 1:18
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-2
99.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the TA&M 35Similar
Q4 0:44
2ND & 12
OWN 35
-2
99.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the TA&M 33Similar
Q4 0:20
3RD & 14
OWN 33
-1
99.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the TA&M 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 12:45
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Braden Pegan for 16 yds for a TD (Bryson Barnes pass to Javen Jacobs for Two-Point Conversion)
-3
TD · Q2 0:16
Marcel Reed pass complete to KC Concepcion for 12 yds for a TD (Jared Zirkel PAT MISSED)
+1.3
TD · Q3 6:07
Marcel Reed pass complete to KC Concepcion for 8 yds for a TD (Jared Zirkel KICK)
+1.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com