Try the model
SJSU

San José State 7 at Texas 38

TEX
2025 · Week 2 · Sep 6, 2025 · DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · TEX
modelTEX aheadSJSU aheadconfidence bandkey playTEX scoreSJSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDFGTDEnd of GameFG-0.1TEX 98.7%Mason Shipley 47 yd FG GOODAWAY 7 - HOME 31 · Q3 10:50
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 10:50 · Mason Shipley 47 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+49.0+24.50−24.5−49.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 110Pregame prior+32.6Home team on offense+23.5Score differential+15.8Garbage-time factor+7.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+3.0Blowout margin−0.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 0:12: Arch Manning pass complete to Parker Livingstone for 3 yds for a TD (Mason Shipley KICK) — TEX win probability +0.5 pts (now 98%) (top driver: TEX has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 14:45: Arch Manning pass complete to Jack Endries for 36 yds for a TD (Mason Shipley KICK) — TEX win probability +0.9 pts (now 99%) (top driver: TEX has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 12:56: Arch Manning pass complete to Jack Endries for 16 yds for a TD (Mason Shipley KICK) — TEX win probability +0.6 pts (now 99%) (top driver: TEX has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 8:19: Jabari Bates run for 4 yds for a TD (Denis Lynch KICK) — SJSU win probability +0.8 pts (now 2%) (top driver: SJSU has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q3 15:00: Will Stone kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback — TEX win probability +0.7 pts (now 99%) (top driver: TEX has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TEX made the numbers' call on 9 of 9SJSU made the numbers' call on 8 of 8
  1. Q1 13:54TEX 4th & 14 at TEX 21, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.0%−0.2
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.2%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:22SJSU 4th & 10 at TEX 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 2.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.3%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    2.3%
    58% to make
    Punt
    2.0%−0.3
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:56TEX 4th & 6 at TEX 45, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.3%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.3%
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:10SJSU 4th & 9 at SJSU 41, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.4%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.4%
    average punt
  5. Q2 5:28TEX 4th & 19 at SJSU 43, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.1%−0.2
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    98.2%−0.1
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    98.2%
    average punt
  6. Q2 3:56SJSU 4th & 7 at SJSU 36, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.6%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.7%
    average punt
  7. Q2 3:31TEX 4th & 11 at TEX 7, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.9%−0.5
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.4%
    average punt
  8. Q3 14:03SJSU 4th & 18 at SJSU 17, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.3%−0.4
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.7%
    average punt
  9. Q3 10:50TEX 4th & 9 at SJSU 29, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 98.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.5%−0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    98.5%
    58% to make
    Punt
    98.1%−0.5
    average punt
  10. Q3 6:52SJSU 4th & 7 at TEX 48, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.4%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.4%
    average punt
  11. Q3 5:04TEX 4th & 17 at TEX 1, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.3%−0.6
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.9%
    average punt
  12. Q3 4:13SJSU 4th & 9 at TEX 37, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.1%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    1.1%−<0.1
    40% to make
    Punt
    1.1%−0.1
    average punt
  13. Q3 2:00TEX 4th & 2 at TEX 45, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    99.0%−0.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 10:34SJSU 4th & 4 at TEX 11, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%
    45% to convert
    Field goal
    0.1%−<0.1
    87% to make
    Punt
    -0.2%−0.3
    average punt
  15. Q4 6:58TEX 4th & 25 at SJSU 48, up 31
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%−0.2
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    100.0%
    average punt
  16. Q4 6:00SJSU 4th & 4 at SJSU 26, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−<0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  17. Q4 1:50TEX 4th & 6 at SJSU 38, up 31
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 100.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.9%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    99.9%−<0.1
    38% to make
    Punt
    99.9%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TEX made the numbers' call on 5 of 5SJSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 2:52TEX Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 0:12TEX Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 14:45TEX Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 12:56TEX Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 8:19SJSU Touchdown, down 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    1.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    1.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 0:43TEX Touchdown, up 30 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TEXDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · -4 yds · 0:5699% → 99%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-4
98.7%
Arch Manning pass complete to DeAndre Moore Jr. for 6 yds to the TEX 31 Texas Penalty, Offensive Holding (Parker Livingstone) to the TEX 21Similar
Q1 14:30
1ST & 14
OWN 21
0
98.6%
CJ Baxter run for no gain to the TEX 21Similar
Q1 14:07
2ND & 14
OWN 21
0
98.6%
Arch Manning pass incomplete to Ryan WingoSimilar
Q1 14:01
3RD & 14
OWN 21
0
98.6%
Arch Manning pass incomplete to Daylan McCutcheonSimilar
Q1 13:54
4TH & 14
OWN 21
0
98.6%
Jack Bouwmeester punt for 38 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SJSU 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 2MISSED FG
11 plays · 30 yds · 3:231% → 2%
Q1 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+8
98.6%
Floyd Chalk IV run for 8 yds to the SJSU 49Similar
Q1 13:21
2ND & 2
OWN 49
+1
98.5%
Floyd Chalk IV run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 12:50
3RD & 1
50
+10
98.5%
Walker Eget pass complete to Danny Scudero for 10 yds to the TEX 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:18
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
98.4%
Walker Eget pass incomplete to Danny ScuderoSimilar
Q1 12:18
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+5
98.4%
Texas Penalty, Defensive Offside (Colin Simmons) to the TEX 35Similar
Q1 12:14
2ND & 5
OPP 35
0
98.4%
Walker Eget pass incomplete to Danny ScuderoSimilar
Q1 12:08
3RD & 5
OPP 35
+6
98.4%
Walker Eget pass complete to Cooper Hoch for 6 yds to the TEX 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:39
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
98.3%
Walker Eget pass incomplete to Cooper HochSimilar
Q1 11:33
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+6
98.3%
Floyd Chalk IV run for 6 yds to the TEX 23Similar
Q1 10:49
3RD & 4
OPP 23
-6
98.2%
Walker Eget run for a loss of 6 yards to the TEX 29Similar
Q1 10:22
4TH & 10
OPP 29
+47
98.2%
Denis Lynch 47 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 16 yds · 2:2498% → 98%
Q1 10:20
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+2
98.2%
CJ Baxter run for 2 yds to the TEX 31Similar
Q1 10:10
2ND & 8
OWN 31
+10
98.2%
Arch Manning pass complete to Ryan Wingo for 10 yds to the TEX 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-5
98.1%
Arch Manning pass complete to CJ Baxter for a loss of 5 yards to the TEX 36Similar
Q1 8:40
2ND & 15
OWN 36
+9
98.0%
Arch Manning run for 9 yds to the TEX 45Similar
Q1 8:03
3RD & 6
OWN 45
0
97.9%
Arch Manning pass incomplete to Ryan WingoSimilar
Q1 7:56
4TH & 6
OWN 45
0
97.9%
Jack Bouwmeester punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Jaylen Thomas at the SJSU 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 4PUNT
11 plays · 27 yds · 3:422% → 3%
Q1 7:52
1ST & 10
OWN 14
0
97.9%
Walker Eget pass incomplete to Leland SmithSimilar
Q1 7:35
2ND & 10
OWN 14
-5
97.8%
Eget, Walker pass complete to Scudero, Danny for 5 yards to the SJSU19, PENALTY SJSU illegal shift 5 yards to the SJSU9, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:25
2ND & 15
OWN 9
0
97.8%
Walker Eget pass incomplete to Danny ScuderoSimilar
Q1 7:20
3RD & 15
OWN 9
+5
97.8%
Floyd Chalk IV run for 5 yds to the SJSU 14Similar
Q1 6:34
4TH & 10
OWN 14
+15
97.8%
Carrizosa, Trent punt 37 yards to the TEX49, Niblett, Ryan return 5 yards to the SJSU46, PENALTY TEX roughing the kicker (Taaffe, Michael) 15 yards to the SJSU29, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN SJSU.Similar
Q1 6:24
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+8
97.7%
Lamar Radcliffe run for 8 yds to the SJSU 37Similar
Q1 5:51
2ND & 2
OWN 37
+3
97.5%
Lamar Radcliffe run for 3 yds to the SJSU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:07
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
97.4%
Walker Eget pass incomplete to Danny ScuderoSimilar
Q1 5:00
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+1
97.4%
Lamar Radcliffe run for 1 yd to the SJSU 41Similar
Q1 4:19
3RD & 9
OWN 41
0
97.3%
Walker Eget pass incomplete to Danny ScuderoSimilar
Q1 4:10
4TH & 9
OWN 41
0
97.4%
Trent Carrizosa punt for 49 yds , Ryan Niblett returns for no gain to the TEX 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 5TD
3 plays · 90 yds · 1:0897% → 98%
Q1 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+2
97.3%
Christian Clark run for 2 yds to the TEX 12Similar
Q1 3:35
2ND & 8
OWN 12
+5
97.2%
Christian Clark run for 5 yds to the TEX 17Similar
Q1 2:52
3RD & 3
OWN 17
+83
97.5%
Arch Manning pass complete to Parker Livingstone for 83 yds for a TD (Mason Shipley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 6INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q1 2:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
97.6%
Walker Eget pass intercepted Jaylon Guilbeau return for no gain to the SJSU 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 7TD
5 plays · 34 yds · 2:2898% → 98%
Q1 2:40
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+13
97.7%
CJ Baxter run for 13 yds to the SJSU 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:10
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+4
97.6%
Arch Manning pass complete to Ryan Wingo for 4 yds to the SJSU 17Similar
Q1 1:31
2ND & 6
OPP 17
+8
97.5%
CJ Baxter run for 8 yds to the SJSU 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+6
97.5%
CJ Baxter run for 6 yds to the SJSU 3Similar
Q1 0:12
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
98.0%
Arch Manning pass complete to Parker Livingstone for 3 yds for a TD (Mason Shipley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 8FUMBLE
3 plays · 11 yds · 0:072% → 2%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
97.7%
Walker Eget pass complete to Cooper Hoch for 8 yds to the SJSU 33Similar
Q2 14:53
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+3
97.6%
Lamar Radcliffe run for 3 yds to the SJSU 36 Lamar Radcliffe fumbled, forced by Ty'Anthony Smith, recovered by TEX Ty'Anthony SmithSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 9TD
1 play · 36 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q2 14:45
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+36
98.6%
Arch Manning pass complete to Jack Endries for 36 yds for a TD (Mason Shipley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 10FUMBLE
4 plays · -3 yds · 1:191% → 1%
Q2 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
98.6%
Floyd Chalk IV run for 2 yds to the SJSU 27Similar
Q2 13:45
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-5
98.6%
Walker Eget sacked by Colin Simmons and Maraad Watson for a loss of 5 yards to the SJSU 22Similar
Q2 13:21
3RD & 13
OWN 22
+21
98.6%
Floyd Chalk IV run for no gain to the SJSU 1 Floyd Chalk IV fumbled, forced by Anthony Hill Jr., recovered by TEX Trey Moore , return for 21 yds to the SJSU 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 11TD
3 plays · 1 yds · 0:1999% → 99%
Q2 13:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
98.6%
CJ Baxter run for no gain to the SJSU 1Similar
Q2 13:05
2ND & 0
OPP 1
-15
98.7%
Baxter, CJ rush for 1 yard to the SJSU0, PENALTY TEX illegal block (Hutson, Cole) 15 yards to the SJSU16, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:56
2ND & 0
OPP 16
+16
99.2%
Arch Manning pass complete to Jack Endries for 16 yds for a TD (Mason Shipley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 12TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 4:261% → 2%
Q2 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
99.3%
Eget, Walker pass complete to Tagovailoa-Amosa, Tuli for 10 yards to the SJSU35, PENALTY SJSU holding (Nomani, Sione) 10 yards to the SJSU15, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:18
1ST & 20
OWN 15
+10
99.3%
Walker Eget pass complete to Kyri Shoels for 10 yds to the SJSU 25Similar
Q2 11:45
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+16
99.3%
Walker Eget pass complete to Kyri Shoels for 16 yds to the SJSU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+17
99.2%
Walker Eget pass complete to Tuli Tagovailoa-Amosa for 17 yds to the TEX 42 for a 1ST down Texas Penalty, Defensive Offside (Colin Simmons) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:45
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+5
99.2%
Jabari Bates run for 5 yds to the TEX 37Similar
Q2 10:10
2ND & 5
OPP 37
+15
99.2%
Walker Eget pass complete to Kyri Shoels for 15 yds to the TEX 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:35
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+4
99.2%
Jabari Bates run for 4 yds to the TEX 18Similar
Q2 8:55
2ND & 6
OPP 18
+14
99.1%
Walker Eget pass complete to Danny Scudero for 14 yds to the TEX 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
98.4%
Jabari Bates run for 4 yds for a TD (Denis Lynch KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 13PUNT
8 plays · 15 yds · 2:4299% → 99%
Q2 8:10
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+7
98.7%
Arch Manning pass complete to DeAndre Moore Jr. for 7 yds to the TEX 49Similar
Q2 7:35
2ND & 3
OWN 49
+17
98.7%
Arch Manning pass complete to DeAndre Moore Jr. for 17 yds to the SJSU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:15
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-2
98.7%
Christian Clark run for a loss of 2 yards to the SJSU 36Similar
Q2 6:30
2ND & 12
OPP 36
-10
98.7%
Manning, Arch pass complete to Livingstone, Parker for 34 yards to the SJSU2, PENALTY TEX holding (Campbell, DJ) 10 yards to the SJSU46, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:00
2ND & 22
OPP 46
+3
98.7%
Arch Manning pass complete to Daylan McCutcheon for 3 yds to the SJSU 43Similar
Q2 5:35
3RD & 19
OPP 43
0
98.7%
Arch Manning pass incomplete to Ryan WingoSimilar
Q2 5:28
4TH & 19
OPP 43
0
98.6%
Jack Bouwmeester punt for 43 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 16 yds · 1:302% → 2%
Q2 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+13
98.5%
Jabari Bates run for 13 yds to the SJSU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:43
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+3
98.4%
Walker Eget pass complete to Kyri Shoels for 3 yds to the SJSU 36Similar
Q2 4:12
2ND & 7
OWN 36
0
98.5%
Walker Eget pass incomplete to Danny ScuderoSimilar
Q2 3:56
4TH & 7
OWN 36
0
98.6%
Trent Carrizosa punt for 56 yds, downed at the TEX 8Similar
Q2 3:50
3RD & 7
OWN 36
0
98.5%
Walker Eget pass incomplete to Leland SmithSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 15PUNT
6 plays · -1 yds · 0:2099% → 99%
Q2 3:51
1ST & 10
OWN 8
0
98.7%
Arch Manning pass incomplete to Ryan WingoSimilar
Q2 3:45
2ND & 10
OWN 8
-1
98.8%
CJ Baxter run for a loss of 1 yard to the TEX 7Similar
Q2 3:39
3RD & 11
OWN 7
0
98.7%
Arch Manning pass incomplete to Aaron ButlerSimilar
Q2 3:31
4TH & 11
OWN 7
+8
98.7%
Jack Bouwmeester punt for 42 yds , Jaylen Thomas returns for 8 yds to the TEX 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 16FUMBLE
2 plays · 15 yds · 0:342% → 2%
Q2 3:25
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+5
98.3%
Jabari Bates run for 5 yds to the TEX 36Similar
Q2 2:51
2ND & 5
OPP 36
+24
98.2%
Walker Eget pass complete to Danny Scudero for 10 yds Danny Scudero fumbled, forced by Anthony Hill Jr., recovered by TEX Jelani McDonald , return to the 50 yard line , return for 24 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 17INT
6 plays · 37 yds · 2:0299% → 99%
Q2 2:40
1ST & 10
50
+9
98.8%
Ryan Wingo run for 9 yds to the SJSU 41Similar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 1
OPP 41
+3
98.9%
CJ Baxter run for 3 yds to the SJSU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:54
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+18
98.9%
CJ Baxter run for 18 yds to the SJSU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:40
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+5
98.9%
CJ Baxter run for 5 yds to the SJSU 15Similar
Q2 1:15
2ND & 5
OPP 15
+2
98.9%
CJ Baxter run for 2 yds to the SJSU 13Similar
Q2 0:38
3RD & 3
OPP 13
-41
98.9%
Arch Manning pass intercepted Jalen Apalit-Williams return for 41 yds to the SJSU 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 18DOWNS
6 plays · 27 yds · 0:352% → 2%
Q2 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
98.3%
Walker Eget pass complete to Tuli Tagovailoa-Amosa for 4 yds to the SJSU 45Similar
Q2 0:12
2ND & 6
OWN 45
+15
98.2%
Eget, Walker pass incomplete to Smith, Leland, PENALTY TEX roughing passer (Simmons, Colin) 15 yards to the TEX40, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN SJSU.Similar
Q2 0:06
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+8
98.1%
Walker Eget pass complete to Tuli Tagovailoa-Amosa for 8 yds to the TEX 32Similar
Q2 0:03
2ND & 2
OPP 32
0
98.0%
Walker Eget pass incomplete to Leland SmithSimilar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 2
OPP 32
+50
98.1%
Denis Lynch 50 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · -8 yds · 0:471% → 1%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
98.6%
Walker Eget pass complete to Kyri Shoels for 2 yds to the SJSU 27Similar
Q3 14:20
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-10
98.5%
Walker Eget sacked by Maraad Watson for a loss of 10 yards to the SJSU 17 San José State Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Walker Eget) to the SJSU 17Similar
Q3 14:12
3RD & 18
OWN 17
0
98.6%
Walker Eget pass incomplete to Kyri ShoelsSimilar
Q3 14:03
4TH & 18
OWN 17
+44
98.6%
Trent Carrizosa punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Ryan Niblett at the TEX 49 Texas Penalty, Offensive Holding (Xavier Filsaime) to the TEX 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 20FG
7 plays · 32 yds · 3:1099% → 99%
Q3 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
98.8%
Christian Clark run for 2 yds to the TEX 41Similar
Q3 13:20
2ND & 8
OWN 41
+13
98.8%
Christian Clark run for 13 yds to the SJSU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:46
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+16
98.8%
Arch Manning pass complete to Ryan Wingo for 16 yds to the SJSU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:15
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+1
98.9%
Christian Clark run for 1 yd to the SJSU 29Similar
Q3 11:39
2ND & 9
OPP 29
0
98.9%
Arch Manning pass incomplete to Jordan WashingtonSimilar
Q3 11:30
3RD & 9
OPP 29
0
98.8%
Arch Manning pass complete to DeAndre Moore Jr. for no gain to the SJSU 29Similar
Q3 10:50
4TH & 9
OPP 29
+47
98.7%
Mason Shipley 47 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 21PUNT
8 plays · 27 yds · 3:531% → 1%
Q3 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
98.8%
Floyd Chalk IV run for 11 yds to the SJSU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:10
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
98.8%
Walker Eget pass complete to Kyri Shoels for 7 yds to the SJSU 43Similar
Q3 9:30
2ND & 3
OWN 43
+6
98.8%
Walker Eget pass complete to Jackson Canaan for 6 yds to the SJSU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:55
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+2
98.8%
Walker Eget pass complete to Danny Scudero for 2 yds to the TEX 49Similar
Q3 8:15
2ND & 8
OPP 49
-2
98.8%
Walker Eget run for a loss of 2 yards to the SJSU 49Similar
Q3 7:35
3RD & 10
OWN 49
+3
98.8%
Walker Eget pass complete to Danny Scudero for 3 yds to the TEX 48Similar
Q3 6:52
4TH & 7
OPP 48
0
98.8%
Trent Carrizosa punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Ryan Niblett at the TEX 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · -7 yds · 1:4299% → 99%
Q3 6:46
1ST & 10
OWN 8
0
98.8%
Arch Manning pass incomplete to Parker LivingstoneSimilar
Q3 6:35
2ND & 10
OWN 8
0
98.8%
Arch Manning pass complete to Parker Livingstone for no gain to the TEX 8Similar
Q3 5:50
3RD & 10
OWN 8
-7
98.9%
Arch Manning sacked by Vili Taufatofua for a loss of 7 yards to the TEX 1 Arch Manning fumbled, forced by Vili Taufatofua, recovered by TEX Jordan Washington , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q3 5:04
4TH & 17
OWN 1
+13
98.9%
Jack Bouwmeester punt for 50 yds , Jaylen Thomas returns for 13 yds to the TEX 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 23DOWNS
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:471% → 1%
Q3 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+1
99.0%
Lamar Radcliffe run for 1 yd to the TEX 37Similar
Q3 4:24
2ND & 9
OPP 37
0
99.0%
Tama Amisone pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:19
3RD & 9
OPP 37
0
99.0%
Walker Eget pass incomplete to Tuli Tagovailoa-AmosaSimilar
Q3 4:13
4TH & 9
OPP 37
0
98.8%
Walker Eget pass incomplete to Danny ScuderoSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 24TD
6 plays · 63 yds · 3:2299% → 100%
Q3 4:05
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
99.4%
CJ Baxter run for 5 yds to the TEX 42Similar
Q3 3:30
2ND & 5
OWN 42
+2
99.4%
Arch Manning pass complete to CJ Baxter for 2 yds to the TEX 44Similar
Q3 2:45
3RD & 3
OWN 44
+1
99.4%
Arch Manning run for 1 yd to the TEX 45Similar
Q3 2:00
4TH & 2
OWN 45
+3
99.4%
CJ Baxter run for 3 yds to the TEX 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+32
99.5%
Arch Manning pass complete to Parker Livingstone for 42 yds to the SJSU 10 for a 1ST down Texas Penalty, Illegal Block (-10 Yards) to the SJSU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:43
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+20
99.9%
Arch Manning run for 20 yds for a TD (Mason Shipley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 25DOWNS
14 plays · 64 yds · 5:060% → 0%
Q3 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
99.9%
Jabari Bates run for 2 yds to the SJSU 27Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+9
99.9%
Walker Eget run for 9 yds to the SJSU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
99.9%
Jabari Bates run for 5 yds to the SJSU 41Similar
Q4 14:25
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+1
99.9%
Jabari Bates run for 1 yd to the SJSU 42Similar
Q4 13:43
3RD & 4
OWN 42
+6
99.9%
Walker Eget pass complete to Danny Scudero for 6 yds to the SJSU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:10
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+14
99.9%
Walker Eget pass complete to Kyri Shoels for 14 yds to the TEX 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:40
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
99.9%
Walker Eget pass incomplete to Danny ScuderoSimilar
Q4 12:35
2ND & 10
OPP 38
0
99.9%
Walker Eget pass incomplete to Danny ScuderoSimilar
Q4 12:20
3RD & 10
OPP 38
+21
99.9%
Walker Eget pass complete to Danny Scudero for 21 yds to the TEX 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:51
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
99.9%
Walker Eget pass incomplete to Jackson CanaanSimilar
Q4 11:20
2ND & 10
OPP 17
0
99.9%
Floyd Chalk IV run for no gain to the TEX 17Similar
Q4 11:05
3RD & 10
OPP 17
+6
99.9%
Floyd Chalk IV run for 6 yds to the TEX 11Similar
Q4 10:34
4TH & 4
OPP 11
0
99.9%
Walker Eget pass incomplete to Leland SmithSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 26PUNT
9 plays · 41 yds · 3:32100% → 100%
Q4 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+1
99.9%
Jerrick Gibson run for 1 yd to the TEX 12Similar
Q4 9:48
2ND & 9
OWN 12
+22
99.9%
Arch Manning pass complete to Jordan Washington for 22 yds to the TEX 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:05
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+33
99.9%
Arch Manning pass complete to Emaree Winston for 33 yds to the SJSU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:39
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-10
99.9%
Gibson, Jerrick rush for 4 yards to the SJSU29, PENALTY TEX holding (Goosby, Trevor) 10 yards to the SJSU43, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 8:00
1ST & 20
OPP 43
-5
99.9%
Gibson, Jerrick rush for 6 yards to the SJSU37, PENALTY TEX illegal shift (Gibson, Jerrick) 5 yards to the SJSU48, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 7:49
1ST & 25
OPP 48
0
99.9%
Arch Manning pass incomplete to Nick TownsendSimilar
Q4 7:40
2ND & 25
OPP 48
0
99.9%
Arch Manning pass complete to Ryan Wingo for no gain to the SJSU 48Similar
Q4 7:05
3RD & 25
OPP 48
0
99.9%
Arch Manning pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:58
4TH & 25
OPP 48
0
99.9%
Jack Bouwmeester punt for 48 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 27PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:540% → 0%
Q4 6:54
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
99.9%
Walker Eget pass incomplete to Leland SmithSimilar
Q4 6:42
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+6
99.9%
Walker Eget pass complete to Kyri Shoels for 6 yds to the SJSU 26Similar
Q4 6:07
3RD & 4
OWN 26
0
99.9%
Walker Eget pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:00
4TH & 4
OWN 26
0
99.9%
Trent Carrizosa punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Ryan Niblett at the TEX 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 28FUMBLE
12 plays · 49 yds · 4:44100% → 100%
Q4 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-5
99.9%
Texas Penalty, False Start (Brandon Baker) to the TEX 31Similar
Q4 5:50
1ST & 15
OWN 31
0
99.9%
Christian Clark run for no gain to the TEX 31Similar
Q4 5:25
2ND & 15
OWN 31
+14
99.9%
Jerrick Gibson run for 14 yds to the TEX 45Similar
Q4 5:00
3RD & 1
OWN 45
+1
99.9%
Jerrick Gibson run for 1 yd to the TEX 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+5
99.9%
Matthew Caldwell pass complete to Kaliq Lockett for 5 yds to the SJSU 49Similar
Q4 3:50
2ND & 5
OPP 49
+7
99.9%
Jerrick Gibson run for 7 yds to the SJSU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:30
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-5
99.9%
Texas Penalty, Substitution Infraction (-5 Yards) to the SJSU 47Similar
Q4 3:10
1ST & 15
OPP 47
0
99.9%
Matthew Caldwell pass incomplete to Aaron ButlerSimilar
Q4 2:57
2ND & 15
OPP 47
+3
99.9%
Jerrick Gibson run for 3 yds to the SJSU 44Similar
Q4 2:00
3RD & 12
OPP 44
+6
99.9%
Jerrick Gibson run for 6 yds to the SJSU 38Similar
Q4 1:50
4TH & 6
OPP 38
+17
99.9%
Matthew Caldwell pass complete to Kaliq Lockett for 17 yds to the SJSU 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:16
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+6
99.9%
Jerrick Gibson run for 6 yds to the SJSU 15 Jerrick Gibson fumbled, forced by Larry Turner-Gooden, recovered by SJSU Jordan PollardSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 29END OF GAME
3 plays · 5 yds · 1:100% → 0%
Q4 1:10
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
100.0%
Walker Eget pass incomplete to Leland SmithSimilar
Q4 1:00
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+3
100.0%
Jabari Bates run for 3 yds to the SJSU 18Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 7
OWN 18
+2
100.0%
Jabari Bates run for 2 yds to the SJSU 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 14:45
Arch Manning pass complete to Jack Endries for 36 yds for a TD (Mason Shipley KICK)
+0.9
TD · Q2 8:19
Jabari Bates run for 4 yds for a TD (Denis Lynch KICK)
-0.8
KEY PLAY · Q3 15:00
Will Stone kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
+0.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com