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MICH

Michigan 13 at Oklahoma 24

OU
2025 · Week 2 · Sep 6, 2025 · Memorial Stadium (Norman, OK)
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Win probability · OU
modelOU aheadMICH aheadconfidence bandkey playOU scoreMICH score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the OU 49
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+28.5+14.30−14.3−28.5Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:22: John Mateer run for 2 yds for a TD (Tate Sandell KICK) — OU win probability +6.0 pts (now 81%) (top driver: OU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 14:49: Justice Haynes run for 75 yds for a TD (Dominic Zvada KICK) — MICH win probability +11.3 pts (now 29%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 10:12: John Mateer run for 10 yds for a TD (Tate Sandell KICK) — OU win probability +10.0 pts (now 86%) (top driver: OU has the ball).
  4. FG · Q3 6:33: Dominic Zvada 42 yd FG GOOD — MICH win probability +2.7 pts (now 22%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 10:26: Timeout Michigan, clock 10:26 — OU win probability +4.8 pts (now 88%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
OU made the numbers' call on 6 of 7MICH made the numbers' call on 6 of 10
  1. Q1 10:47OU 4th & 1 at MICH 12, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 61.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    61.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    60.8%−0.2
    86% to make
    Punt
    60.3%−0.7
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:33MICH 4th & 5 at OU 47, down 7
    Close callPunted · 36.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.5%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.5%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:14OU 4th & 6 at OU 41, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.9%−0.3
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.2%
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:56MICH 4th & 14 at OU 38, down 7
    Close callPunted · 34.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.2%−0.3
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    34.6%
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    34.5%−<0.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:01MICH 4th & 5 at MICH 43, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.3%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.6%
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:25OU 4th & 8 at OU 48, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.6%−0.4
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.9%
    average punt
  7. Q2 3:17MICH 4th & 2 at OU 14, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 32.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.8%
    56% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    30.9%−1.0
    84% to make
    Punt
    25.1%−6.7
    average punt
  8. Q3 13:36OU 4th & 8 at OU 27, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.4%−1.5
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.0%
    average punt
  9. Q3 12:07MICH 4th & 12 at MICH 24, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.5%−2.7
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.2%
    average punt
  10. Q3 8:03MICH 4th & 16 at MICH 11, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.4%−2.6
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.0%
    average punt
  11. Q3 6:33MICH 4th & 2 at OU 23, down 14
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsKicked a field goal · 16.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    15.5%−1.2
    70% to make
    Punt
    8.7%−7.9
    average punt
  12. Q3 4:44OU 4th & 6 at OU 22, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.7%−1.1
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.8%
    average punt
  13. Q3 1:24MICH 4th & 6 at OU 17, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 16.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.7%−0.4
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    16.1%
    80% to make
    Punt
    11.0%−5.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 12:32OU 4th & 10 at MICH 24, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 85.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.3%−1.4
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    85.7%
    68% to make
    Punt
    77.1%−8.5
    average punt
  15. Q4 10:11MICH 4th & 15 at MICH 32, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.1%−4.1
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.2%
    average punt
  16. Q4 1:44OU 4th & 3 at MICH 3, up 8
    Close callKicked a field goal · 95.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.3%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    94.8%−0.5
    93% to make
    Punt
    91.8%−3.6
    average punt
  17. Q4 0:37MICH 4th & 1 at OU 48, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    3.8%−1.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
OU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3MICH made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 10:00OU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 0:22OU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 14:49MICH Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    26.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    26.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 10:12OU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
OUDrive 1TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 4:4562% → 64%
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
62.1%
John Mateer run for 1 yd to the OU 26Similar
Q1 14:26
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
62.1%
John Mateer pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:14
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+31
62.1%
John Mateer pass complete to Jaren Kanak for 31 yds to the MICH 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-4
62.2%
John Mateer pass complete to Isaiah Sategna III for a loss of 4 yards to the MICH 47Similar
Q1 13:16
2ND & 14
OPP 47
+5
62.2%
John Mateer pass complete to Isaiah Sategna III for 5 yds to the MICH 42Similar
Q1 12:46
3RD & 9
OPP 42
+21
62.3%
John Mateer pass complete to Deion Burks for 21 yds to the MICH 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:36
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+8
62.5%
John Mateer run for 8 yds to the MICH 13Similar
Q1 12:16
2ND & 2
OPP 13
-1
62.5%
Jaydn Ott run for a loss of 1 yard to the MICH 14Similar
Q1 11:28
3RD & 3
OPP 14
+2
62.4%
John Mateer run for 2 yds to the MICH 12Similar
Q1 10:47
4TH & 1
OPP 12
+3
62.3%
John Mateer run for 3 yds to the MICH 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
62.7%
John Mateer pass incomplete to Jovantae BarnesSimilar
Q1 10:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
64.4%
John Mateer pass complete to Deion Burks for 9 yds for a TD (Tate Sandell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 2PUNT
7 plays · 28 yds · 3:2236% → 35%
Q1 9:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
63.6%
Justice Haynes run for 4 yds to the MICH 29Similar
Q1 9:15
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+19
63.8%
Bryce Underwood pass complete to Semaj Morgan for 19 yds to the MICH 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:42
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+1
63.6%
Justice Haynes run for 1 yd to the MICH 49Similar
Q1 7:59
2ND & 9
OWN 49
+5
63.9%
Justice Haynes run for 5 yds to the OU 46Similar
Q1 7:14
3RD & 4
OPP 46
-1
63.9%
Bryce Underwood pass complete to Justice Haynes for a loss of 1 yard to the OU 47Similar
Q1 6:33
4TH & 5
OPP 47
0
64.7%
Hudson Hollenbeck punt for 41 yds, downed at the OU 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 35 yds · 1:1965% → 65%
Q1 6:33
1ST & 10
OWN 6
-3
64.9%
Oklahoma Penalty, False Start (Derek Simmons) to the OU 3Similar
Q1 6:26
1ST & 13
OWN 3
+34
64.9%
John Mateer pass complete to Deion Burks for 34 yds to the OU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:50
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
65.5%
Jaydn Ott run for 4 yds to the OU 41Similar
Q1 5:26
2ND & 6
OWN 41
0
66.0%
John Mateer pass incomplete to Deion BurksSimilar
Q1 5:22
3RD & 6
OWN 41
0
65.6%
John Mateer pass incomplete to Isaiah Sategna IIISimilar
Q1 5:14
4TH & 6
OWN 41
0
65.0%
Grayson Miller punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Semaj Morgan at the MICH 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 4PUNT
9 plays · 50 yds · 4:1235% → 34%
Q1 5:08
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
65.3%
Bryce Underwood pass incomplete to Donaven McCulleySimilar
Q1 5:00
2ND & 10
OWN 12
+15
65.4%
Haynes, Justice rush for loss of 5 yards to the MICH7, PENALTY OU face mask (Jones Jr., Marvin) 15 yards to the MICH27, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MICH.Similar
Q1 4:31
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+7
65.3%
Justice Haynes run for 7 yds to the MICH 34Similar
Q1 4:20
2ND & 3
OWN 34
-6
64.8%
Donaven McCulley run for a loss of 6 yards to the MICH 28Similar
Q1 3:02
3RD & 9
OWN 28
+38
66.2%
Bryce Underwood pass complete to Donaven McCulley for 38 yds to the OU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:16
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+1
63.8%
Justice Haynes run for 1 yd to the OU 33Similar
Q1 1:35
2ND & 9
OPP 33
-5
64.0%
Bryce Underwood pass complete to Justice Haynes for a loss of 5 yards to the OU 38Similar
Q1 1:03
3RD & 14
OPP 38
0
65.8%
Bryce Underwood pass incomplete to Semaj MorganSimilar
Q1 0:56
4TH & 14
OPP 38
0
66.5%
Hudson Hollenbeck punt for 38 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 5INT
2 plays · 18 yds · 0:1867% → 67%
Q1 0:46
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+18
66.5%
John Mateer pass complete to Keontez Lewis for 18 yds to the OU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:28
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
67.2%
John Mateer pass intercepted TJ Metcalf return for no gain to the MICH 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:5934% → 33%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
65.7%
Jordan Marshall run for 2 yds to the MICH 40Similar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 8
OWN 40
+3
65.6%
Jordan Marshall run for 3 yds to the MICH 43Similar
Q2 14:10
3RD & 5
OWN 43
0
65.8%
Bryce Underwood pass incomplete to Semaj MorganSimilar
Q2 14:01
4TH & 5
OWN 43
0
66.7%
Hudson Hollenbeck punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Isaiah Sategna III at the OU 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 7PUNT
9 plays · 25 yds · 4:1367% → 68%
Q2 13:38
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
67.1%
Tory Blaylock run for no gain to the OU 23Similar
Q2 13:10
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+7
67.1%
John Mateer pass complete to Isaiah Sategna III for 7 yds to the OU 30Similar
Q2 12:40
3RD & 3
OWN 30
+5
67.0%
Tory Blaylock run for 5 yds to the OU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:14
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
67.7%
John Mateer run for 5 yds to the OU 40Similar
Q2 11:30
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+6
69.0%
Tory Blaylock run for 6 yds to the OU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:51
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+1
69.3%
Tory Blaylock run for 1 yd to the OU 47Similar
Q2 10:30
2ND & 9
OWN 47
+3
69.2%
John Mateer pass complete to Deion Burks for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 10:15
3RD & 6
50
-2
68.9%
John Mateer sacked by Cole Sullivan for a loss of 2 yards to the OU 48Similar
Q2 9:25
4TH & 8
OWN 48
0
67.8%
Grayson Miller punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Semaj Morgan at the MICH 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 8MISSED FG
14 plays · 72 yds · 5:5932% → 32%
Q2 9:16
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+1
68.1%
Jordan Marshall run for 1 yd to the MICH 15Similar
Q2 8:44
2ND & 9
OWN 15
+3
68.5%
Jordan Marshall run for 3 yds to the MICH 18Similar
Q2 8:03
3RD & 6
OWN 18
-2
69.7%
Justice Haynes run for a loss of 2 yards to the MICH 16Similar
Q2 7:23
4TH & 8
OWN 16
+15
70.4%
Oklahoma Penalty, Roughing the Kicker (Sammy Omosigho) to the MICH 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:18
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
68.6%
Bryce Underwood pass incomplete to Zack MarshallSimilar
Q2 6:50
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+12
69.0%
Justice Haynes run for 2 yds to the MICH 33 for a 1ST down Oklahoma Penalty, Defensive Holding (Damonic Williams) to the MICH 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+8
68.2%
Justice Haynes run for 8 yds to the OU 49Similar
Q2 6:10
2ND & 2
OPP 49
+1
66.8%
Justice Haynes run for 1 yd to the OU 48Similar
Q2 5:24
3RD & 1
OPP 48
+1
67.4%
Justice Haynes run for 1 yd to the OU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:09
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+25
67.3%
Bryce Underwood pass complete to Channing Goodwin for 25 yds to the OU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:36
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+2
65.9%
Justice Haynes run for 2 yds to the OU 20Similar
Q2 4:00
2ND & 8
OPP 20
+6
66.0%
Justice Haynes run for 6 yds to the OU 14Similar
Q2 3:22
3RD & 2
OPP 14
0
67.4%
Bryce Underwood pass incomplete to Donaven McCulleySimilar
Q2 3:17
4TH & 2
OPP 14
+32
68.5%
Dominic Zvada 32 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 9TD
12 plays · 80 yds · 2:4771% → 81%
Q2 3:09
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
71.1%
John Mateer run for 3 yds to the OU 23Similar
Q2 2:30
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+4
71.0%
Jaydn Ott run for 4 yds to the OU 27Similar
Q2 2:01
3RD & 3
OWN 27
+15
70.6%
Mateer, John pass incomplete to Burks, Deion, PENALTY MICH personal foul (Pierce, Trey) 15 yards to the OU42, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN OU.Similar
Q2 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
72.7%
John Mateer pass complete to Deion Burks for 3 yds to the OU 45Similar
Q2 1:50
2ND & 7
OWN 45
0
72.9%
John Mateer pass incomplete to Deion BurksSimilar
Q2 1:45
3RD & 7
OWN 45
+11
71.9%
John Mateer pass complete to Keontez Lewis for 11 yds to the MICH 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:34
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+10
73.4%
Jovantae Barnes run for 10 yds to the MICH 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:06
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+8
74.0%
John Mateer run for 8 yds to the MICH 26Similar
Q2 0:34
2ND & 2
OPP 26
+22
74.2%
John Mateer pass complete to Deion Burks for 22 yds to the MICH 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
74.2%
Jovantae Barnes run for 2 yds to the MICH 2Similar
Q2 0:22
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
80.9%
John Mateer run for 2 yds for a TD (Tate Sandell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 10END OF HALF
2 plays · 3 yds · 0:0020% → 20%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
80.4%
Jordan Marshall run for 3 yds to the MICH 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 11TD
2 plays · 75 yds · 0:0029% → 29%
Q3 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+75
71.1%
Justice Haynes run for 75 yds for a TD (Dominic Zvada KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:5872% → 70%
Q3 14:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
72.2%
John Mateer pass complete to Jaren Kanak for 4 yds to the OU 29Similar
Q3 14:17
2ND & 6
OWN 29
-2
72.4%
John Mateer run for a loss of 2 yards to the OU 27Similar
Q3 13:45
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
71.2%
John Mateer pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:36
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
70.3%
Grayson Miller punt for 47 yds , Joe Taylor returns for no gain to the MICH 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 1:2029% → 26%
Q3 13:27
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-3
71.4%
Justice Haynes run for a loss of 3 yards to the MICH 23Similar
Q3 12:54
2ND & 13
OWN 23
0
72.1%
Bryce Underwood pass incomplete to Zack MarshallSimilar
Q3 12:44
3RD & 13
OWN 23
+1
72.9%
Bryce Underwood pass complete to Justice Haynes for 1 yd to the MICH 24Similar
Q3 12:07
4TH & 12
OWN 24
+5
73.8%
Hudson Hollenbeck punt for 32 yds , Isaiah Sategna III returns for 5 yds to the OU 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 14TD
5 plays · 51 yds · 1:4875% → 86%
Q3 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+2
75.2%
Jaydn Ott run for 2 yds to the MICH 49Similar
Q3 11:24
2ND & 8
OPP 49
0
75.4%
John Mateer pass incomplete to Isaiah Sategna IIISimilar
Q3 11:14
3RD & 8
OPP 49
+36
74.2%
John Mateer pass complete to Isaiah Sategna III for 36 yds to the MICH 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:38
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+3
76.2%
Tory Blaylock run for 3 yds to the MICH 10Similar
Q3 10:12
2ND & 7
OPP 10
+10
86.2%
John Mateer run for 10 yds for a TD (Tate Sandell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 15FUMBLE
6 plays · -5 yds · 1:3816% → 14%
Q3 9:41
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-7
84.1%
Underwood, Bryce rush for loss of 1 yard to the MICH16, PENALTY MICH holding (Norton, Brady) 7 yards to the MICH9, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:30
1ST & 18
OWN 9
-5
84.9%
Bryce Underwood run for a loss of 5 yards to the MICH 4Similar
Q3 8:53
2ND & 23
OWN 4
0
85.3%
Bryce Underwood pass incomplete to Justice HaynesSimilar
Q3 8:38
3RD & 23
OWN 4
+7
85.6%
Justice Haynes run for 7 yds to the MICH 11Similar
Q3 8:03
4TH & 16
OWN 11
-3
85.6%
Hudson Hollenbeck punt for 55 yds , Isaiah Sategna III returns for a loss of 3 yards to the OU 31 Isaiah Sategna III fumbled, recovered by MICH Cole SullivanSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 16FG
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:1518% → 22%
Q3 7:48
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+4
82.0%
Justice Haynes run for 4 yds to the OU 27Similar
Q3 7:18
2ND & 6
OPP 27
0
81.8%
Bryce Underwood pass incomplete to Donaven McCulleySimilar
Q3 7:10
3RD & 6
OPP 27
+4
81.1%
Justice Haynes run for 4 yds to the OU 23Similar
Q3 6:33
4TH & 2
OPP 23
+42
78.4%
Dominic Zvada 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 17PUNT
6 plays · 15 yds · 1:3880% → 81%
Q3 6:22
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+11
79.8%
John Mateer pass complete to Jaren Kanak for 11 yds to the OU 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:53
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+6
80.7%
Tory Blaylock run for 6 yds to the OU 24Similar
Q3 5:36
2ND & 4
OWN 24
0
81.5%
John Mateer pass incomplete to Deion BurksSimilar
Q3 5:24
3RD & 4
OWN 24
-2
80.8%
John Mateer sacked by Jaden Mangham and Dominic Nichols for a loss of 2 yards to the OU 22Similar
Q3 4:44
4TH & 6
OWN 22
+4
80.5%
Grayson Miller punt for 59 yds , Semaj Morgan returns for 4 yds to the MICH 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 18FG
8 plays · 60 yds · 3:0618% → 20%
Q3 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+44
81.7%
Bryce Underwood pass complete to Donaven McCulley for 44 yds to the OU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:57
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+4
77.8%
Jordan Marshall run for 4 yds to the OU 29Similar
Q3 3:10
2ND & 6
OPP 29
+3
78.7%
Jordan Marshall run for 3 yds to the OU 26Similar
Q3 2:35
3RD & 3
OPP 26
+5
80.3%
Jordan Marshall run for 5 yds to the OU 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:07
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
79.0%
Bryce Underwood pass incomplete to Donaven McCulleySimilar
Q3 1:57
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+4
79.6%
Jordan Marshall run for 4 yds to the OU 17Similar
Q3 1:28
3RD & 6
OPP 17
0
80.7%
Bryce Underwood pass incomplete to Donaven McCulleySimilar
Q3 1:24
4TH & 6
OPP 17
+35
80.2%
Dominic Zvada 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 19MISSED FG
12 plays · 51 yds · 3:3983% → 86%
Q3 1:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
83.4%
John Mateer run for 5 yds to the OU 30Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+2
84.1%
Tory Blaylock run for 2 yds to the OU 32Similar
Q4 14:48
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+11
83.5%
John Mateer run for 11 yds to the OU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:26
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+14
85.8%
John Mateer pass complete to Jaren Kanak for 14 yds to the MICH 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:05
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+3
86.9%
John Mateer run for 3 yds to the MICH 40Similar
Q4 13:28
2ND & 7
OPP 40
0
87.0%
John Mateer pass incomplete to Deion BurksSimilar
Q4 13:20
3RD & 7
OPP 40
+16
86.3%
John Mateer pass complete to Jovantae Barnes for 16 yds to the MICH 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:49
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
87.8%
John Mateer pass incomplete to Jaren KanakSimilar
Q4 12:42
2ND & 10
OPP 24
0
87.7%
John Mateer pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:37
3RD & 10
OPP 24
0
86.9%
John Mateer pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:32
4TH & 10
OPP 24
+42
85.5%
Tate Sandell 42 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 20PUNT
8 plays · 8 yds · 2:0717% → 11%
Q4 12:18
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+9
83.4%
Bryce Underwood run for 9 yds to the MICH 33Similar
Q4 11:42
2ND & 1
OWN 33
+4
82.0%
Justice Haynes run for 4 yds to the MICH 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-5
82.9%
Bryce Underwood sacked by Jayden Jackson and Sammy Omosigho for a loss of 5 yards to the MICH 32Similar
Q4 10:23
2ND & 15
OWN 32
0
87.7%
Bryce Underwood pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:20
3RD & 15
OWN 32
0
88.6%
Bryce Underwood pass incomplete to Zack MarshallSimilar
Q4 10:11
4TH & 15
OWN 32
0
88.9%
Hudson Hollenbeck punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Isaiah Sategna III at the OU 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 21FG
17 plays · 78 yds · 8:1689% → 97%
Q4 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+19
89.1%
John Mateer run for 19 yds to the OU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:20
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
90.8%
Tory Blaylock run for no gain to the OU 38Similar
Q4 8:31
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+9
90.9%
John Mateer pass complete to Jaren Kanak for 9 yds to the OU 47Similar
Q4 8:02
3RD & 1
OWN 47
+7
91.5%
John Mateer pass complete to Keontez Lewis for 7 yds to the MICH 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:32
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+8
92.4%
Isaiah Sategna III run for 8 yds to the MICH 38Similar
Q4 6:49
2ND & 2
OPP 38
+1
93.0%
Tory Blaylock run for 1 yd to the MICH 37Similar
Q4 6:00
3RD & 1
OPP 37
+2
93.2%
Jovantae Barnes run for 2 yds to the MICH 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+9
95.4%
Jovantae Barnes run for 9 yds to the MICH 26Similar
Q4 4:33
2ND & 1
OPP 26
+2
95.6%
John Mateer run for 2 yds to the MICH 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:11
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-1
95.6%
Jovantae Barnes run for a loss of 1 yard to the MICH 25Similar
Q4 3:27
2ND & 11
OPP 25
+9
96.1%
John Mateer pass complete to Deion Burks for 9 yds to the MICH 16Similar
Q4 2:47
3RD & 2
OPP 16
+8
96.4%
John Mateer run for a loss of 1 yard to the MICH 17 for a 1ST down Michigan Penalty, Face Mask (9 yards) (Tr Williams) to the MICH 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
96.7%
Jovantae Barnes run for 2 yds to the MICH 6Similar
Q4 1:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
-1
97.0%
John Mateer run for a loss of 1 yard to the MICH 7Similar
Q4 1:53
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+4
96.9%
John Mateer pass complete to Tory Blaylock for 4 yds to the MICH 3Similar
Q4 1:44
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+21
97.3%
Tate Sandell 21 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 22DOWNS
8 plays · 24 yds · 0:563% → 3%
Q4 1:33
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
97.3%
Underwood, Bryce pass incomplete, PENALTY OU offside (Thomas, R Mason) 5 yards to the MICH31, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 1:25
1ST & 5
OWN 31
0
97.0%
Bryce Underwood pass incomplete to Semaj MorganSimilar
Q4 1:18
2ND & 5
OWN 31
+12
97.0%
Bryce Underwood pass complete to Zack Marshall for 12 yds to the MICH 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:08
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
97.1%
Bryce Underwood pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:00
2ND & 10
OWN 43
0
97.2%
Bryce Underwood pass incomplete to Justice HaynesSimilar
Q4 0:47
3RD & 10
OWN 43
+9
97.4%
Bryce Underwood pass complete to Donaven McCulley for 9 yds to the OU 48Similar
Q4 0:37
4TH & 1
OPP 48
-2
97.2%
Justice Haynes run for a loss of 2 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 23END OF GAME
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
50
-1
97.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the OU 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 14:49
Justice Haynes run for 75 yds for a TD (Dominic Zvada KICK)
-11.3
TD · Q3 10:12
John Mateer run for 10 yds for a TD (Tate Sandell KICK)
+10
TD · Q2 0:22
John Mateer run for 2 yds for a TD (Tate Sandell KICK)
+6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com