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ASU

Arizona State 20 at Mississippi State 24

MSST
2025 · Week 2 · Sep 6, 2025 · Davis Wade Stadium
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Win probability · MSST
modelMSST aheadASU aheadconfidence bandkey playMSST scoreASU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDFGTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 9:21 · Blake Shapen run for 1 yd to the ASU 37
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+25.5+12.80−12.8−25.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 17Home team on offense+1.3Pregame prior−13.6Score differential+0.2Garbage-time factor+0.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 12:51: Blake Shapen pass complete to Brenen Thompson for 47 yds for a TD (Kyle Ferrie KICK) — MSST win probability +12.2 pts (now 63%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 10:34: Kanye Udoh run for 6 yds for a TD (Jesus Gomez KICK) — ASU win probability +15.3 pts (now 44%) (top driver: ASU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 13:07: Sam Leavitt pass complete to Jordyn Tyson for 2 yds for a TD (Jesus Gomez KICK) — ASU win probability +28.5 pts (now 53%) (top driver: ASU has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 1:38: Jesus Gomez 18 yd FG GOOD — ASU win probability +27.5 pts (now 88%) (top driver: ASU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 0:30: Blake Shapen pass complete to Brenen Thompson for 58 yds for a TD (Kyle Ferrie KICK) — MSST win probability +73.3 pts (now 95%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MSST made the numbers' call on 6 of 7ASU made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
  1. Q1 11:46ASU 4th & 7 at ASU 38, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.0%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:21MSST 4th & 2 at ASU 38, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 41.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    41.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    40.7%−0.4
    38% to make
    Punt
    40.7%−0.4
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:15ASU 4th & 10 at ASU 37, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.0%−0.2
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.2%
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:59MSST 4th & 11 at MSST 36, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.9%−0.4
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.3%
    average punt
  5. Q1 6:09ASU 4th & 5 at ASU 24, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.4%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.5%
    average punt
  6. Q2 6:38MSST 4th & 11 at MSST 17, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.0%−2.6
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.6%
    average punt
  7. Q2 2:41ASU 4th & 5 at MSST 34, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 28.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    27.8%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    27.0%−0.8
    47% to make
    Punt
    25.0%−2.7
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:32MSST 4th & 20 at MSST 46, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.8%−2.1
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.8%
    average punt
  9. Q3 9:02MSST 4th & 6 at MSST 29, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.8%−0.9
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.7%
    average punt
  10. Q3 6:18ASU 4th & 12 at ASU 36, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.1%−2.8
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.8%
    average punt
  11. Q3 3:26MSST 4th & 6 at MSST 49, up 7
    Close callWent for it · 71.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    72.0%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    72.1%
    average punt
  12. Q4 13:07ASU 4th & 1 at MSST 2, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 26.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    26.1%
    60% to convert
    Field goal
    21.7%−4.4
    94% to make
    Punt
    6.7%−19.4
    average punt
  13. Q4 10:32MSST 4th & 9 at ASU 48, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.5%−2.0
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.4%
    average punt
  14. Q4 5:48ASU 4th & 1 at ASU 47, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 52.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    54.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    47.6%−6.4
    average punt
  15. Q4 1:38ASU 4th & 1 at MSST 1, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 15.1 ptsKicked a field goal · 54.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.4%
    59% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    34.3%−15.1
    94% to make
    Punt
    -1.8%−51.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MSST made the numbers' call on 2 of 3ASU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 13:51MSST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    37.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    37.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 12:51MSST Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 10:34ASU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    34.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    34.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 13:07ASU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    45.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    44.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 0:30MSST Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.8%−0.5
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.3%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MSSTDrive 1TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:0435% → 36%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
35.2%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Anthony Evans III for a loss of 1 yard to the MSST 24Similar
Q1 14:25
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+15
35.4%
Davon Booth run for 15 yds to the MSST 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+13
35.6%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Anthony Evans III for 13 yds to the ASU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:51
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+48
36.2%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Anthony Evans III for 48 yds for a TD (Kyle Ferrie KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 2PUNT
7 plays · 13 yds · 1:5464% → 62%
Q1 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
36.2%
Kyson Brown run for 6 yds to the ASU 31Similar
Q1 13:00
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+4
36.6%
Sam Leavitt pass complete to Jordyn Tyson for 4 yds to the ASU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:33
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
36.9%
Sam Leavitt pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:25
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+3
37.0%
Raleek Brown run for 3 yds to the ASU 38Similar
Q1 11:52
3RD & 7
OWN 38
0
37.4%
Sam Leavitt pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:46
4TH & 7
OWN 38
0
37.7%
Kanyon Floyd punt for 22 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MSST 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 3DOWNS
5 plays · 23 yds · 2:1838% → 40%
Q1 11:39
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+14
38.0%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Brenen Thompson for 14 yds to the ASU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+1
38.7%
Fluff Bothwell run for 1 yd to the ASU 45Similar
Q1 10:30
2ND & 9
OPP 45
+7
39.1%
Fluff Bothwell run for 7 yds to the ASU 38Similar
Q1 10:07
3RD & 2
OPP 38
0
39.3%
Blake Shapen run for no gain to the ASU 38Similar
Q1 9:21
4TH & 2
OPP 38
+1
39.7%
Blake Shapen run for 1 yd to the ASU 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:4661% → 59%
Q1 9:01
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
39.5%
Raleek Brown run for no gain to the ASU 37Similar
Q1 8:37
2ND & 10
OWN 37
0
39.8%
Sam Leavitt pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:28
3RD & 10
OWN 37
0
40.3%
Sam Leavitt pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:15
4TH & 10
OWN 37
+20
40.6%
Kanyon Floyd punt for 46 yds , Anthony Evans III returns for 20 yds to the MSST 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 1:0141% → 41%
Q1 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-2
40.9%
Davon Booth run for a loss of 2 yards to the MSST 35Similar
Q1 7:41
2ND & 12
OWN 35
+1
40.8%
Davon Booth run for 1 yd to the MSST 36Similar
Q1 7:09
3RD & 11
OWN 36
0
41.0%
Blake Shapen pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:59
4TH & 11
OWN 36
0
40.9%
Ethan Pulliam punt for 45 yds, downed at the ASU 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:4359% → 58%
Q1 6:52
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+5
41.3%
Kyson Brown run for 5 yds to the ASU 24Similar
Q1 6:22
2ND & 5
OWN 24
0
41.6%
Sam Leavitt pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:17
3RD & 5
OWN 24
0
42.1%
Sam Leavitt pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:09
4TH & 5
OWN 24
0
42.4%
Kanyon Floyd punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Anthony Evans III at the MSST 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 7FG
15 plays · 45 yds · 4:4243% → 47%
Q1 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+15
42.5%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Anthony Evans III for 15 yds to the ASU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:48
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
43.2%
Blake Shapen pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:30
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+7
43.3%
Fluff Bothwell run for 7 yds to the ASU 42Similar
Q1 5:15
3RD & 3
OPP 42
+4
43.4%
Fluff Bothwell run for 4 yds to the ASU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:45
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+5
44.2%
Arizona State Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the ASU 33Similar
Q1 4:24
1ST & 5
OPP 33
+4
44.6%
Davon Booth run for 4 yds to the ASU 29Similar
Q1 4:03
2ND & 1
OPP 29
+7
44.9%
Davon Booth run for 7 yds to the ASU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:36
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+3
45.3%
Davon Booth run for 3 yds to the ASU 19Similar
Q1 3:00
2ND & 7
OPP 19
+6
45.8%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Brenen Thompson for 6 yds to the ASU 13Similar
Q1 2:21
3RD & 1
OPP 13
+3
45.6%
Blake Shapen run for 3 yds to the ASU 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
-4
46.5%
Blake Shapen sacked by Keyshaun Elliott for a loss of 4 yards to the ASU 14Similar
Q1 1:28
2ND & GOAL
OPP 14
0
46.6%
Blake Shapen pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:22
3RD & GOAL
OPP 14
0
45.9%
Blake Shapen pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:22
4TH & 0
OPP 14
-5
45.7%
Mississippi State Penalty, False Start (Wesley Davis) to the ASU 19Similar
Q1 1:18
4TH & 0
OPP 19
+37
46.5%
Kyle Ferrie 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 8PUNT
9 plays · -12 yds · 3:0753% → 49%
Q1 1:10
1ST & 10
OWN 14
-7
46.6%
Arizona State Penalty, Offensive Holding (Max Iheanachor) to the ASU 7Similar
Q1 0:57
1ST & 17
OWN 7
+21
46.9%
Kanye Udoh run for 21 yds to the ASU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:25
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-1
47.0%
Raleek Brown run for a loss of 1 yard to the ASU 27Similar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 11
OWN 27
+6
47.7%
Kanye Udoh run for 6 yds to the ASU 33Similar
Q2 14:18
3RD & 5
OWN 33
-15
48.2%
Arizona State Penalty, Offensive Pass Interference (Cameron Harpole) to the ASU 18Similar
Q2 13:55
3RD & 20
OWN 18
-14
49.7%
Sam Leavitt sacked by Will Whitson for a loss of 14 yards to the ASU 4Similar
Q2 13:15
4TH & 34
OWN 4
-2
50.9%
Arizona State Penalty, Delay of Game (Kanyon Floyd) to the ASU 2Similar
Q2 13:03
4TH & 36
OWN 2
+11
51.1%
Kanyon Floyd punt for 56 yds , Anthony Evans III returns for 11 yds to the ASU 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 9TD
2 plays · 47 yds · 0:0851% → 63%
Q2 12:59
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
50.7%
Blake Shapen pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:51
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+47
63.0%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Brenen Thompson for 47 yds for a TD (Kyle Ferrie KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 10INT
9 plays · 20 yds · 4:2740% → 34%
Q2 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
60.3%
Sam Leavitt pass complete to Raleek Brown for a loss of 2 yards to the ASU 23Similar
Q2 12:01
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+10
61.4%
Sam Leavitt run for 10 yds to the ASU 33Similar
Q2 11:22
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+9
61.6%
Raleek Brown run for 9 yds to the ASU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
62.3%
Raleek Brown run for 4 yds to the ASU 46Similar
Q2 10:08
2ND & 6
OWN 46
+7
62.3%
Sam Leavitt run for 7 yds to the MSST 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:26
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-1
63.1%
Raleek Brown run for a loss of 1 yard to the MSST 48Similar
Q2 8:53
2ND & 11
OPP 48
-7
64.6%
Sam Leavitt sacked by Deonte Anderson for a loss of 7 yards to the ASU 45Similar
Q2 8:13
3RD & 18
OWN 45
-4
66.0%
Sam Leavitt pass intercepted Jayven Williams return for 4 yds to the MSST 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 1:2868% → 69%
Q2 8:06
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
68.2%
Davon Booth run for no gain to the MSST 18Similar
Q2 7:47
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+1
68.5%
Blake Shapen run for 1 yd to the MSST 19Similar
Q2 7:11
3RD & 9
OWN 19
-2
68.7%
Blake Shapen sacked by Clayton Smith for a loss of 2 yards to the MSST 17Similar
Q2 6:38
4TH & 11
OWN 17
0
68.6%
Nathan Tiyce punt for 45 yds, downed at the ASU 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 12DOWNS
9 plays · 32 yds · 3:4833% → 29%
Q2 6:29
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+7
66.9%
Kanye Udoh run for 7 yds to the ASU 45Similar
Q2 6:00
2ND & 3
OWN 45
+5
66.4%
Kanye Udoh run for 5 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:20
1ST & 10
50
0
67.1%
Kanye Udoh run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 4:39
2ND & 10
50
+1
68.7%
Sam Leavitt pass complete to Raleek Brown for 1 yd to the MSST 49Similar
Q2 4:07
3RD & 9
OPP 49
+10
69.6%
Mississippi State Penalty, Defensive Holding (Jahron Manning) to the MSST 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:02
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
68.5%
Sam Leavitt pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:36
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+4
69.1%
Sam Leavitt pass complete to Cameron Harpole for 4 yds to the MSST 35Similar
Q2 3:16
3RD & 6
OPP 35
+1
69.6%
Kanye Udoh run for 1 yd to the MSST 34Similar
Q2 2:41
4TH & 5
OPP 34
+4
71.1%
Sam Leavitt run for 4 yds to the MSST 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 13PUNT
14 plays · 16 yds · 1:4876% → 79%
Q2 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
75.9%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Anthony Evans III for 3 yds to the MSST 33Similar
Q2 1:56
2ND & 7
OWN 33
0
76.8%
Blake Shapen pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:50
3RD & 7
OWN 33
+12
76.3%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Ayden Williams for 12 yds to the MSST 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:34
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+6
78.0%
Blake Shapen run for 6 yds to the ASU 49Similar
Q2 1:18
2ND & 4
OPP 49
+5
78.4%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Fluff Bothwell for 5 yds to the ASU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:08
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-10
78.6%
Mississippi State Penalty, Offensive Holding (Zack Owens) to the MSST 46Similar
Q2 0:57
1ST & 20
OWN 46
-9
78.4%
Blake Shapen sacked by Clayton Smith for a loss of 9 yards to the MSST 37Similar
Q2 0:53
2ND & 29
OWN 37
+5
79.3%
Arizona State Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the MSST 42Similar
Q2 0:48
2ND & 24
OWN 42
+6
79.7%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Brenen Thompson for 6 yds to the MSST 48Similar
Q2 0:43
3RD & 18
OWN 48
-2
79.4%
Fluff Bothwell run for a loss of 2 yards to the MSST 46Similar
Q2 0:32
4TH & 20
OWN 46
0
78.6%
Nathan Tiyce punt for 21 yds, downed at the ASU 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 14END OF HALF
8 plays · 33 yds · 0:2318% → 31%
Q2 0:23
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+23
82.1%
Sam Leavitt pass complete to Jordyn Tyson for 23 yds to the MSST 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:21
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
80.1%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:16
2ND & 10
OPP 44
0
81.3%
Sam Leavitt pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:07
3RD & 10
OPP 44
0
81.8%
Sam Leavitt pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:07
4TH & 10
OPP 44
-5
80.7%
Arizona State Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the MSST 49Similar
Q2 0:01
4TH & 15
OPP 49
+15
81.0%
Mississippi State Penalty, Roughing Passer (Branden Jennings) to the MSST 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+51
68.9%
Jesus Gomez 51 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 15TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 4:1728% → 44%
Q3 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
71.8%
Kanye Udoh run for 6 yds to the ASU 31Similar
Q3 14:11
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+15
71.2%
Raleek Brown run for 15 yds to the ASU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:37
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+11
71.2%
Raleek Brown run for 11 yds to the MSST 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:58
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+12
71.1%
Sam Leavitt run for 12 yds to the MSST 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:22
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+13
70.6%
Kanye Udoh run for 13 yds to the MSST 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:40
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+9
71.0%
Sam Leavitt run for 9 yds to the MSST 9Similar
Q3 11:00
2ND & 1
OPP 9
+3
71.5%
Kanye Udoh run for 3 yds to the MSST 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
56.2%
Kanye Udoh run for 6 yds for a TD (Jesus Gomez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:2663% → 64%
Q3 10:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
63.3%
Davon Booth run for 1 yd to the MSST 26Similar
Q3 9:53
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
65.5%
Blake Shapen pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:40
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+3
64.5%
Blake Shapen run for 3 yds to the MSST 29Similar
Q3 9:02
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
63.9%
Ethan Pulliam punt for 44 yds, downed at the ASU 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 17PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 2:4037% → 33%
Q3 8:58
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
62.8%
Kanye Udoh run for no gain to the ASU 27Similar
Q3 8:11
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+11
63.8%
Sam Leavitt pass complete to Raleek Brown for 11 yds to the ASU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:38
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
62.5%
Raleek Brown run for 3 yds to the ASU 41Similar
Q3 7:00
2ND & 7
OWN 41
-5
62.3%
Kanye Udoh run for a loss of 5 yards to the ASU 36Similar
Q3 6:28
3RD & 12
OWN 36
0
65.9%
Sam Leavitt pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:18
4TH & 12
OWN 36
0
66.8%
Kanyon Floyd punt for 45 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MSST 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 18DOWNS
10 plays · 30 yds · 2:4170% → 71%
Q3 6:07
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+7
70.0%
Fluff Bothwell run for 7 yds to the MSST 26Similar
Q3 5:46
2ND & 3
OWN 26
+6
70.8%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Anthony Evans III for 6 yds to the MSST 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:15
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+2
71.0%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Brenen Thompson for 2 yds to the MSST 34Similar
Q3 5:00
2ND & 8
OWN 34
+5
70.8%
Blake Shapen run for 5 yds to the MSST 39Similar
Q3 4:45
3RD & 3
OWN 39
+6
71.9%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Anthony Evans III for 6 yds to the MSST 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:08
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
73.6%
Blake Shapen pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:58
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+9
73.1%
Fluff Bothwell run for 9 yds to the ASU 46Similar
Q3 3:58
3RD & 1
OPP 46
-5
73.2%
Mississippi State Penalty, False Start (Anthony Evans III) to the MSST 49Similar
Q3 3:31
3RD & 6
OWN 49
0
73.0%
Blake Shapen pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:26
4TH & 6
OWN 49
0
71.0%
Blake Shapen pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 19TD
11 plays · 49 yds · 5:0836% → 53%
Q3 3:15
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
63.9%
Raleek Brown run for 4 yds to the MSST 45Similar
Q3 2:49
2ND & 6
OPP 45
+21
64.2%
Sam Leavitt pass complete to Jordyn Tyson for 21 yds to the MSST 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:20
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+3
61.9%
Raleek Brown run for 3 yds to the MSST 21Similar
Q3 1:40
2ND & 7
OPP 21
+4
64.1%
Raleek Brown run for 4 yds to the MSST 17Similar
Q3 0:54
3RD & 3
OPP 17
+6
66.8%
Sam Leavitt pass complete to Jordyn Tyson for 6 yds to the MSST 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:27
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+3
64.8%
Kanye Udoh run for 3 yds to the MSST 8Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 8
-5
65.1%
Arizona State Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the MSST 13Similar
Q4 14:51
2ND & 12
OPP 13
+7
65.9%
Kanye Udoh run for 7 yds to the MSST 6Similar
Q4 13:57
3RD & 5
OPP 6
+4
70.8%
Sam Leavitt run for 4 yds to the MSST 2Similar
Q4 13:07
4TH & 1
OPP 2
+2
46.7%
Sam Leavitt pass complete to Jordyn Tyson for 2 yds for a TD (Jesus Gomez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 20PUNT
10 plays · 27 yds · 2:3154% → 55%
Q4 13:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
54.4%
Blake Shapen pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:55
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+9
54.1%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Anthony Evans III for 9 yds to the MSST 34Similar
Q4 12:44
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+4
55.6%
Davon Booth run for 4 yds to the MSST 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:13
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+1
57.0%
Blake Shapen run for 1 yd to the MSST 39Similar
Q4 11:41
2ND & 9
OWN 39
+12
57.2%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Ricky Johnson for 12 yds to the ASU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:28
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
60.2%
Blake Shapen pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:19
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+1
59.6%
Fluff Bothwell run for 1 yd to the ASU 48Similar
Q4 10:41
3RD & 9
OPP 48
0
58.5%
Blake Shapen pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:32
4TH & 9
OPP 48
0
55.4%
Nathan Tiyce punt for 44 yds, downed at the ASU 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 21FG
21 plays · 95 yds · 8:4548% → 88%
Q4 10:23
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+11
51.7%
Kanye Udoh run for 11 yds to the ASU 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:47
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+12
50.8%
Kanye Udoh run for 12 yds to the ASU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:14
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+2
50.2%
Kanye Udoh run for 2 yds to the ASU 29Similar
Q4 8:42
2ND & 8
OWN 29
+9
50.3%
Raleek Brown run for 9 yds to the ASU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:04
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+6
48.2%
Raleek Brown run for 6 yds to the ASU 44Similar
Q4 7:08
2ND & 4
OWN 44
+2
45.3%
Kanye Udoh run for 2 yds to the ASU 46Similar
Q4 6:47
3RD & 2
OWN 46
+1
45.9%
Kanye Udoh run for 1 yd to the ASU 47Similar
Q4 5:48
4TH & 1
OWN 47
+2
47.8%
Kanye Udoh run for 2 yds to the ASU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:19
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+6
44.6%
Raleek Brown run for 6 yds to the MSST 45Similar
Q4 4:40
2ND & 4
OPP 45
+2
44.2%
Raleek Brown run for 2 yds to the MSST 43Similar
Q4 4:10
3RD & 2
OPP 43
-5
44.6%
Arizona State Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the MSST 48Similar
Q4 3:39
3RD & 7
OPP 48
+12
45.4%
Sam Leavitt pass complete to Jordyn Tyson for 12 yds to the MSST 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:56
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+7
44.5%
Raleek Brown run for 7 yds to the MSST 29Similar
Q4 2:17
2ND & 3
OPP 29
+26
42.4%
Raleek Brown run for 26 yds to the MSST 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
40.8%
Kanye Udoh run for 2 yds to the MSST 1Similar
Q4 1:47
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
38.8%
Kanye Udoh run for no gain to the MSST 1Similar
Q4 1:39
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
39.7%
Kanye Udoh run for no gain to the MSST 1Similar
Q4 1:38
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+18
12.2%
Jesus Gomez 18 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 22TD
6 plays · 77 yds · 0:5325% → 95%
Q4 1:23
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+9
25.3%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Davon Booth for 9 yds to the MSST 32Similar
Q4 1:10
2ND & 1
OWN 32
+9
25.7%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Anthony Evans III for 9 yds to the MSST 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+1
23.0%
Blake Shapen run for 1 yd to the MSST 42Similar
Q4 0:41
2ND & 9
OWN 42
0
21.2%
Blake Shapen pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:30
3RD & 9
OWN 42
+58
94.5%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Brenen Thompson for 58 yds for a TD (Kyle Ferrie KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 23INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0019% → 19%
Q4 0:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-6
80.9%
Sam Leavitt pass intercepted Hunter Washington return for 6 yds to the ASU 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 24END OF GAME
2 plays · -22 yds · 0:2196% → 96%
Q4 0:21
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-15
95.7%
Mississippi State Penalty, Personal Foul (-15 Yards) to the MSST 46Similar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 25
OWN 46
-7
95.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 7 yards to the MSST 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:30
Blake Shapen pass complete to Brenen Thompson for 58 yds for a TD (Kyle Ferrie KICK)
+73.3
TD · Q4 13:07
Sam Leavitt pass complete to Jordyn Tyson for 2 yds for a TD (Jesus Gomez KICK)
-28.5
FG · Q4 1:38
Jesus Gomez 18 yd FG GOOD
-27.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com