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MISS

Ole Miss 30 at Kentucky 23

UK
2025 · Week 2 · Sep 6, 2025 · Kroger Field
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Win probability · UK
modelUK aheadMISS aheadconfidence bandkey playUK scoreMISS score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDFGFGFGTDTDFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the UK 48
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+38.0+19.00−19.0−38.0Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 12:25: Kewan Lacy run for 1 yd for a TD (Lucas Carneiro KICK) — MISS win probability +8.5 pts (now 66%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
  2. FG · Q3 8:48: Lucas Carneiro 28 yd FG GOOD — MISS win probability +6.3 pts (now 74%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 5:38: Seth McGowan run for 8 yds for a TD (Jacob Kauwe KICK) — UK win probability +18.9 pts (now 53%) (top driver: UK has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 2:20: Austin Simmons run for 7 yds for a TD (Lucas Carneiro KICK) — MISS win probability +16.2 pts (now 78%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 0:08: Jacob Kauwe 39 yd FG GOOD — UK win probability +12.2 pts (now 17%) (top driver: UK has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UK made the numbers' call on 9 of 11MISS made the numbers' call on 9 of 9
  1. Q1 13:01MISS 4th & 5 at MISS 44, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.4%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.4%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:26UK 4th & 9 at UK 36, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.1%−0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.2%
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:52MISS 4th & 10 at UK 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 66.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.9%−<0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    65.9%
    47% to make
    Punt
    65.9%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 7:41UK 4th & 2 at UK 42, tied
    Close callPunted · 34.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.8%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:17UK 4th & 9 at MISS 15, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 44.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.5%−0.6
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    44.1%
    83% to make
    Punt
    40.8%−3.3
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:29MISS 4th & 1 at MISS 44, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 53.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    53.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    52.1%−1.4
    average punt
  7. Q2 11:13UK 4th & 5 at UK 30, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.1%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.2%
    average punt
  8. Q2 4:31UK 4th & 5 at MISS 13, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 38.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.2%−0.2
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    37.4%
    85% to make
    Punt
    31.5%−5.8
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:05MISS 4th & 3 at UK 25, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 62.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.5%−0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    61.6%
    66% to make
    Punt
    56.4%−5.2
    average punt
  10. Q3 14:06UK 4th & 7 at UK 28, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.6%−1.2
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.7%
    average punt
  11. Q3 13:24MISS 4th & 5 at MISS 30, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.9%−0.6
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.5%
    average punt
  12. Q3 12:27UK 4th & 8 at UK 31, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.3%−2.3
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.6%
    average punt
  13. Q3 8:48MISS 4th & 11 at UK 11, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 63.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.6%−1.9
    22% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    62.6%
    87% to make
    Punt
    52.3%−10.3
    average punt
  14. Q3 0:43UK 4th & 8 at UK 27, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.9%−2.0
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.9%
    average punt
  15. Q4 14:13MISS 4th & 15 at MISS 13, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.3%−3.7
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.0%
    average punt
  16. Q4 10:17UK 4th & 4 at MISS 39, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 26.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    25.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    22.3%−3.6
    36% to make
    Punt
    22.4%−3.5
    average punt
  17. Q4 7:50UK 4th & 9 at MISS 20, down 7
    Numbers favored field goal by 2.9 ptsWent for it · 25.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    22.6%−2.9
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    25.5%
    75% to make
    Punt
    13.4%−12.1
    average punt
  18. Q4 6:12MISS 4th & 5 at MISS 25, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.1%−1.5
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.7%
    average punt
  19. Q4 4:11UK 4th & 6 at MISS 26, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 23.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    20.4%
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    20.2%−0.2
    64% to make
    Punt
    11.9%−8.5
    average punt
  20. Q4 1:10MISS 4th & 11 at UK 19, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 90.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.2%−0.8
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    90.0%
    77% to make
    Punt
    86.4%−3.6
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UK made the numbers' call on 2 of 2MISS made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 1:55UK Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    41.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    41.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 12:25MISS Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    59.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 8:24MISS Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 5:38UK Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    45.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    45.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 2:20MISS Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MISSDrive 1PUNT
7 plays · 19 yds · 1:4973% → 72%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
26.8%
Kewan Lacy run for 2 yds to the MISS 27Similar
Q1 14:30
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+12
26.9%
Austin Simmons pass complete to Harrison Wallace III for 12 yds to the MISS 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:15
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
27.0%
Austin Simmons pass incomplete to Harrison Wallace IIISimilar
Q1 14:10
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+4
27.0%
Kewan Lacy run for 4 yds to the MISS 43Similar
Q1 13:45
3RD & 6
OWN 43
+1
27.2%
Austin Simmons run for 1 yd to the MISS 44Similar
Q1 13:01
4TH & 5
OWN 44
+21
27.6%
Oscar Bird punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Ty Bryant at the UK 20 Ole Miss Penalty, Kick Catching Interference (Cedrick Beavers) to the UK 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:2428% → 28%
Q1 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-1
27.8%
Dante Dowdell run for a loss of 1 yard to the UK 34Similar
Q1 12:20
2ND & 11
OWN 34
+2
28.0%
Zach Calzada pass complete to Dante Dowdell for 2 yds to the UK 36Similar
Q1 11:35
3RD & 9
OWN 36
0
28.3%
Zach Calzada pass incomplete to Jacob SmithSimilar
Q1 11:26
4TH & 9
OWN 36
0
28.2%
Aidan Laros punt for 28 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MISS 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 3MISSED FG
6 plays · 30 yds · 1:2872% → 71%
Q1 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
28.3%
Kewan Lacy run for no gain to the MISS 36Similar
Q1 10:55
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+30
28.5%
Austin Simmons pass complete to Deuce Alexander for 30 yds to the UK 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:40
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
28.2%
Kewan Lacy run for no gain to the UK 34Similar
Q1 10:02
2ND & 10
OPP 34
0
28.5%
Austin Simmons pass incomplete to Dae'Quan WrightSimilar
Q1 9:57
3RD & 10
OPP 34
0
28.7%
Austin Simmons pass incomplete to Deuce AlexanderSimilar
Q1 9:52
4TH & 10
OPP 34
+51
29.2%
Lucas Carneiro 51 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · 8 yds · 1:5929% → 30%
Q1 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+4
29.4%
Seth McGowan run for 4 yds to the UK 38Similar
Q1 9:03
2ND & 6
OWN 38
-5
29.9%
Calzada, Zach pass complete to Law, Kendrick for 37 yards to the MISS25, PENALTY UK illegal formation 5 yards to the UK33, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 8:33
2ND & 11
OWN 33
0
29.6%
Zach Calzada pass incomplete to Seth McGowanSimilar
Q1 8:26
3RD & 11
OWN 33
+9
29.5%
Zach Calzada pass complete to Dante Dowdell for 9 yds to the UK 42Similar
Q1 7:41
4TH & 2
OWN 42
0
30.0%
Aidan Laros punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Harrison Wallace III at the MISS 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 5INT
4 plays · 11 yds · 1:1670% → 70%
Q1 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+5
30.0%
Austin Simmons pass complete to Deuce Alexander for 5 yds to the MISS 23Similar
Q1 7:15
2ND & 5
OWN 23
+4
30.0%
Kewan Lacy run for 4 yds to the MISS 27Similar
Q1 7:00
3RD & 1
OWN 27
+2
30.2%
Kewan Lacy run for 2 yds to the MISS 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:14
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-11
30.5%
Austin Simmons pass intercepted Ty Bryant return for 11 yds to the MISS 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 6TD
10 plays · 31 yds · 4:1032% → 39%
Q1 6:05
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+9
31.9%
Dante Dowdell run for 9 yds to the MISS 22Similar
Q1 5:30
2ND & 1
OPP 22
0
32.2%
Dante Dowdell run for no gain to the MISS 22Similar
Q1 4:48
3RD & 1
OPP 22
+2
32.3%
Zach Calzada run for 2 yds to the MISS 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:12
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
33.1%
Zach Calzada pass incomplete to Josh KattusSimilar
Q1 3:50
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+8
33.3%
Zach Calzada pass complete to Kendrick Law for 8 yds to the MISS 12Similar
Q1 3:23
3RD & 2
OPP 12
+2
33.1%
Dante Dowdell run for 2 yds to the MISS 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+1
34.2%
Dante Dowdell run for 1 yd to the MISS 9Similar
Q1 1:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
38.5%
Seth McGowan run for 9 yds for a TD (Jacob Kauwe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 7INT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:4063% → 62%
Q1 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
37.3%
Austin Simmons run for 1 yd to the MISS 26Similar
Q1 1:22
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
37.8%
Austin Simmons pass incomplete to Harrison Wallace IIISimilar
Q1 1:10
3RD & 9
OWN 26
-14
38.4%
Austin Simmons pass intercepted Ty Bryant return for 14 yds to the MISS 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 8FG
5 plays · 17 yds · 1:4339% → 40%
Q1 1:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+16
39.3%
Dante Dowdell run for 1 yd to the MISS 31 for a 1ST down Ole Miss Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Jamarious Brown) to the MISS 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:15
1ST & 10
OPP 16
-9
40.2%
Zach Calzada sacked by Will Echoles for a loss of 9 yards to the MISS 25Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 19
OPP 25
+4
39.9%
Dante Dowdell run for 4 yds to the MISS 21Similar
Q2 14:53
3RD & 15
OPP 21
+6
39.4%
Zach Calzada pass complete to Kendrick Law for 6 yds to the MISS 15Similar
Q2 14:17
4TH & 9
OPP 15
+33
40.2%
Jacob Kauwe 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 9TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 1:4559% → 66%
Q2 14:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
41.2%
Austin Simmons pass complete to Deuce Alexander for 10 yds to the MISS 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:43
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
41.5%
Austin Simmons pass incomplete to Cayden LeeSimilar
Q2 13:35
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+7
41.9%
Kewan Lacy run for 7 yds to the MISS 42Similar
Q2 13:10
3RD & 3
OWN 42
+2
41.4%
Austin Simmons run for 2 yds to the MISS 44Similar
Q2 12:29
4TH & 1
OWN 44
+55
42.4%
Austin Simmons pass complete to Harrison Wallace III for 55 yds to the UK 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
34.0%
Kewan Lacy run for 1 yd for a TD (Lucas Carneiro KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:0737% → 36%
Q2 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
37.0%
Seth McGowan run for 5 yds to the UK 30Similar
Q2 11:26
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
37.8%
Zach Calzada pass incomplete to Troy StellatoSimilar
Q2 11:21
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
37.1%
Zach Calzada pass incomplete to Willie RodriguezSimilar
Q2 11:13
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
36.3%
Aidan Laros punt for 40 yds, downed at the MISS 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 11TD
9 plays · 70 yds · 2:3663% → 70%
Q2 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+9
37.5%
Austin Simmons pass complete to De'Zhaun Stribling for 9 yds to the MISS 39Similar
Q2 10:50
2ND & 1
OWN 39
+22
36.4%
Kewan Lacy run for 7 yds to the UK 46 for a 1ST down Kentucky Penalty, Personal Foul (Mi'Quise Humphrey-Grace) to the UK 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:34
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-5
35.9%
Ole Miss Penalty, False Start (Deuce Alexander) to the UK 44Similar
Q2 10:15
1ST & 15
OPP 44
+23
36.7%
Austin Simmons pass complete to Deuce Alexander for 23 yds to the UK 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:56
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+4
35.0%
Kewan Lacy run for 4 yds to the UK 17Similar
Q2 9:32
2ND & 6
OPP 17
+2
35.1%
Kewan Lacy run for 2 yds to the UK 15Similar
Q2 9:01
3RD & 4
OPP 15
+14
36.2%
Austin Simmons run for 14 yds to the UK 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
35.3%
Damien Taylor run for no gain to the UK 1Similar
Q2 8:24
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
29.8%
Damien Taylor run for 1 yd for a TD (Lucas Carneiro KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 12FG
12 plays · 62 yds · 3:4331% → 35%
Q2 8:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+25
30.8%
Zach Calzada pass complete to Willie Rodriguez for 9 yds to the UK 34 for a 1ST down Ole Miss Penalty, Roughing Passer (Tahj Chambers) to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:55
1ST & 10
50
+7
33.2%
Dante Dowdell run for 7 yds to the MISS 43Similar
Q2 7:30
2ND & 3
OPP 43
+3
33.6%
Dante Dowdell run for 3 yds to the MISS 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:45
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
33.8%
Zach Calzada pass incomplete to Josh KattusSimilar
Q2 6:40
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+6
33.7%
Zach Calzada pass complete to Kendrick Law for 6 yds to the MISS 34Similar
Q2 6:25
3RD & 4
OPP 34
+16
33.8%
Zach Calzada pass complete to Hardley Gilmore IV for 16 yds to the MISS 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:25
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
35.1%
Zach Calzada pass incomplete to Josh KattusSimilar
Q2 5:20
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+5
35.1%
Dante Dowdell run for 5 yds to the MISS 13Similar
Q2 4:35
3RD & 5
OPP 13
0
34.4%
Zach Calzada pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:31
4TH & 5
OPP 13
+31
35.4%
Jacob Kauwe 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 13FG
10 plays · 50 yds · 3:2066% → 70%
Q2 4:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
34.3%
Logan Diggs run for 4 yds to the MISS 29Similar
Q2 4:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+11
33.8%
Austin Simmons pass complete to Harrison Wallace III for 11 yds to the MISS 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
32.8%
Logan Diggs run for 2 yds to the MISS 42Similar
Q2 3:12
2ND & 8
OWN 42
+26
33.0%
Kewan Lacy run for 26 yds to the UK 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:45
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+4
31.2%
Kewan Lacy run for 4 yds to the UK 28Similar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 6
OPP 28
-1
30.6%
Kewan Lacy run for a loss of 1 yard to the UK 29Similar
Q2 1:50
3RD & 7
OPP 29
+4
32.2%
Austin Simmons pass complete to Kewan Lacy for 4 yds to the UK 25Similar
Q2 1:05
4TH & 3
OPP 25
+43
30.1%
Lucas Carneiro 43 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 14END OF HALF
8 plays · 37 yds · 0:5531% → 32%
Q2 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
31.2%
Seth McGowan run for 5 yds to the UK 30Similar
Q2 0:24
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+18
31.6%
Seth McGowan run for 18 yds to the UK 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:13
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+12
33.9%
Zach Calzada pass complete to Ja'Mori Maclin for 12 yds to the MISS 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:10
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-5
34.7%
Calzada, Zach pass complete to Hester, J.J. for 4 yards to the MISS36, PENALTY UK ineligible downfield on pass 5 yards to the MISS45, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:04
1ST & 15
OPP 45
-10
33.1%
Calzada, Zach pass sacked for loss of 5 yards to the 50 yardline (Umanmielen, Princewill), PENALTY UK holding (Wollschlaeger, Alex) 10 yards to the UK45, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 25
OWN 45
+17
32.2%
Zach Calzada run for 22 yds to the MISS 33 Kentucky Penalty, Illegal Forward Pass (-5 Yards) to the MISS 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:4935% → 33%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
34.5%
Zach Calzada pass incomplete to Kendrick LawSimilar
Q3 14:45
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
34.4%
Seth McGowan run for 3 yds to the UK 28Similar
Q3 14:13
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
33.6%
Zach Calzada pass incomplete to Ja'Mori MaclinSimilar
Q3 14:06
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
32.9%
Aidan Laros punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Harrison Wallace III at the MISS 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:3667% → 65%
Q3 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
33.3%
Kewan Lacy run for 5 yds to the MISS 30Similar
Q3 13:39
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
32.7%
Austin Simmons pass incomplete to De'Zhaun StriblingSimilar
Q3 13:34
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
33.7%
Austin Simmons pass incomplete to Cayden LeeSimilar
Q3 13:24
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
35.4%
Oscar Bird punt for 41 yds, downed at the UK 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:5335% → 33%
Q3 13:20
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+2
35.1%
Dante Dowdell run for 2 yds to the UK 31Similar
Q3 12:45
2ND & 8
OWN 31
0
35.2%
Zach Calzada pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:37
3RD & 8
OWN 31
0
34.0%
Zach Calzada pass incomplete to Willie Rodriguez Kentucky Penalty, Offensive Holding (Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 12:27
4TH & 8
OWN 31
+4
33.1%
Aidan Laros punt for 45 yds , Harrison Wallace III returns for 4 yds to the MISS 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 18FG
10 plays · 61 yds · 3:3267% → 74%
Q3 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
33.5%
Kewan Lacy run for no gain to the MISS 28Similar
Q3 12:00
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+39
34.1%
Austin Simmons pass complete to Harrison Wallace III for 39 yds to the UK 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:25
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+8
30.5%
Austin Simmons pass complete to Cayden Lee for 8 yds to the UK 25Similar
Q3 11:00
2ND & 2
OPP 25
+4
30.3%
Kewan Lacy run for 4 yds to the UK 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:40
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+11
30.3%
Kewan Lacy run for 11 yds to the UK 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:05
1ST & 0
OPP 10
-10
29.9%
Lacy, Kewan rush for 10 yards to the UK0, PENALTY MISS holding (Kutas, Patrick) 10 yards to the UK20, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:58
1ST & 0
OPP 20
+2
29.9%
Damien Taylor run for 2 yds to the UK 18Similar
Q3 9:25
2ND & 0
OPP 18
+7
29.9%
Damien Taylor run for 7 yds to the UK 11Similar
Q3 8:52
3RD & GOAL
OPP 11
0
32.4%
Austin Simmons pass incomplete to Harrison Wallace IIISimilar
Q3 8:48
4TH & GOAL
OPP 11
+28
26.0%
Lucas Carneiro 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 19TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 3:0228% → 53%
Q3 8:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
28.2%
Zach Calzada pass complete to Josh Kattus for 5 yds to the UK 30Similar
Q3 7:55
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+7
28.8%
Seth McGowan run for 7 yds to the UK 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+9
29.1%
Seth McGowan run for 9 yds to the UK 46Similar
Q3 6:50
2ND & 1
OWN 46
+44
31.4%
Zach Calzada pass complete to Ja'Mori Maclin for 44 yds to the MISS 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+2
33.7%
Seth McGowan run for 2 yds to the MISS 8Similar
Q3 5:38
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
52.6%
Seth McGowan run for 8 yds for a TD (Jacob Kauwe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 20TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:1157% → 78%
Q3 5:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
43.5%
Kewan Lacy run for 5 yds to the MISS 30Similar
Q3 5:15
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+23
42.6%
Austin Simmons pass complete to Trace Bruckler for 23 yds to the UK 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:27
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+14
39.4%
Austin Simmons run for 14 yds to the UK 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:15
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+2
38.1%
Kewan Lacy run for 2 yds to the UK 31Similar
Q3 3:41
2ND & 8
OPP 31
+15
38.3%
Kewan Lacy run for 15 yds to the UK 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:22
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+6
38.0%
Austin Simmons pass complete to Trace Bruckler for 6 yds to the UK 10Similar
Q3 2:55
2ND & 4
OPP 10
+3
38.1%
Austin Simmons run for 3 yds to the UK 7Similar
Q3 2:20
3RD & 1
OPP 7
+7
21.9%
Austin Simmons run for 7 yds for a TD (Lucas Carneiro KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:3028% → 26%
Q3 2:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
28.2%
Dante Dowdell run for no gain to the UK 25Similar
Q3 1:32
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
28.1%
Zach Calzada pass complete to Kendrick Law for 2 yds to the UK 27Similar
Q3 0:51
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
26.8%
Zach Calzada pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:43
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
26.0%
Aidan Laros punt for 55 yds, fair catch by Harrison Wallace III at the MISS 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · -5 yds · 1:2275% → 76%
Q3 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-2
24.6%
Kewan Lacy run for a loss of 2 yards to the MISS 16Similar
Q4 14:57
2ND & 12
OWN 16
0
24.4%
Austin Simmons pass incomplete to Dae'Quan WrightSimilar
Q4 14:51
3RD & 12
OWN 16
-3
25.3%
Kewan Lacy run for a loss of 3 yards to the MISS 13Similar
Q4 14:13
4TH & 15
OWN 13
0
24.4%
Oscar Bird punt for 51 yds, downed at the UK 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 23DOWNS
12 plays · 44 yds · 6:1527% → 25%
Q4 14:05
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
26.8%
Zach Calzada pass complete to Josh Kattus for 3 yds to the UK 39Similar
Q4 13:30
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+4
28.1%
Seth McGowan run for 4 yds to the UK 43Similar
Q4 12:51
3RD & 3
OWN 43
+12
28.3%
Seth McGowan run for 12 yds to the MISS 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:15
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+4
30.4%
Seth McGowan run for 4 yds to the MISS 41Similar
Q4 11:30
2ND & 6
OPP 41
-6
30.6%
Zach Calzada sacked by Zxavian Harris for a loss of 6 yards to the MISS 47Similar
Q4 10:50
3RD & 12
OPP 47
+8
27.1%
Dante Dowdell run for 8 yds to the MISS 39Similar
Q4 10:17
4TH & 4
OPP 39
+18
25.9%
Zach Calzada pass complete to Kendrick Law for 18 yds to the MISS 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:45
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+2
31.1%
Seth McGowan run for 2 yds to the MISS 19Similar
Q4 9:05
2ND & 8
OPP 19
-6
31.1%
Zach Calzada pass complete to Kendrick Law for 4 yds to the MISS 15 Kentucky Penalty, Offensive Holding (Henry Boyer) to the MISS 25Similar
Q4 8:40
2ND & 14
OPP 25
+5
28.8%
Zach Calzada pass complete to Seth McGowan for 5 yds to the MISS 20Similar
Q4 7:57
3RD & 9
OPP 20
0
28.4%
Zach Calzada pass incomplete to Josh KattusSimilar
Q4 7:50
4TH & 9
OPP 20
0
25.0%
Zach Calzada pass incomplete to Hardley Gilmore IVSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 24PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:3181% → 83%
Q4 7:43
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
18.8%
Kewan Lacy run for 1 yd to the MISS 21Similar
Q4 7:19
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+2
18.3%
Kewan Lacy run for 2 yds to the MISS 23Similar
Q4 6:40
3RD & 7
OWN 23
+2
18.5%
Austin Simmons run for 2 yds to the MISS 25Similar
Q4 6:12
4TH & 5
OWN 25
0
17.4%
Oscar Bird punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Troy Stellato at the UK 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 25DOWNS
6 plays · 29 yds · 1:5524% → 24%
Q4 6:06
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+15
23.9%
Boley, Cutter pass incomplete to McGowan, Seth, PENALTY MISS pass interference (Dottery, TJ) 15 yards to the MISS45, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN UK.Similar
Q4 5:57
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+15
26.7%
Dante Dowdell run for 15 yds to the MISS 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:19
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
27.9%
Cutter Boley pass incomplete to Willie RodriguezSimilar
Q4 5:11
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+1
27.6%
Seth McGowan run for 1 yd to the MISS 29Similar
Q4 4:33
3RD & 9
OPP 29
+3
26.1%
Cutter Boley run for 3 yds to the MISS 26 Kentucky Penalty, Illegal Shift (Kendrick Law) declinedSimilar
Q4 4:11
4TH & 6
OPP 26
-5
23.5%
Cutter Boley sacked by Princewill Umanmielen for a loss of 5 yards to the MISS 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 26FG
13 plays · 50 yds · 2:5587% → 96%
Q4 4:05
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+8
13.0%
Deuce Alexander run for 8 yds to the MISS 39Similar
Q4 3:20
2ND & 2
OWN 39
+11
10.8%
Trinidad Chambliss run for 11 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:42
1ST & 10
50
-1
8.9%
Trinidad Chambliss run for a loss of 1 yard to the MISS 49Similar
Q4 2:33
2ND & 11
OWN 49
+33
8.5%
Kewan Lacy run for 33 yds to the UK 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:22
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-7
7.4%
Deuce Alexander run for 3 yds to the UK 15 Ole Miss Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the UK 25Similar
Q4 2:16
1ST & 17
OPP 25
+4
7.6%
Kewan Lacy run for 4 yds to the UK 21Similar
Q4 2:00
2ND & 13
OPP 21
-1
5.8%
Kewan Lacy run for a loss of 1 yard to the UK 22Similar
Q4 1:52
3RD & 14
OPP 22
+3
4.7%
Trinidad Chambliss run for 3 yds to the UK 19Similar
Q4 1:10
4TH & 11
OPP 19
+36
4.1%
Lucas Carneiro 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 27FG
7 plays · 54 yds · 0:583% → 17%
Q4 1:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
3.0%
Cutter Boley pass incomplete to Seth McGowanSimilar
Q4 1:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
2.9%
Cutter Boley run for 3 yds to the UK 28Similar
Q4 0:33
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+13
2.8%
Cutter Boley run for 13 yds to the UK 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:16
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+38
3.3%
Cutter Boley pass complete to Hardley Gilmore IV for 38 yds to the MISS 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:08
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+39
17.0%
Jacob Kauwe 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 28END OF GAME
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-2
4.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the UK 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 5:38
Seth McGowan run for 8 yds for a TD (Jacob Kauwe KICK)
+18.9
TD · Q3 2:20
Austin Simmons run for 7 yds for a TD (Lucas Carneiro KICK)
-16.2
FG · Q4 0:08
Jacob Kauwe 39 yd FG GOOD
+12.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com