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Ball State 3 at Auburn 42

AUB
2025 · Week 2 · Sep 6, 2025 · Jordan-Hare Stadium
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Win probability · AUB
modelAUB aheadBALL aheadconfidence bandkey playAUB scoreBALL score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · (00:06) Kneel down by Auburn at BSU45 for loss of 2 yards.
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+49.5+24.80−24.8−49.5Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 4:15: Jeremiah Cobb run for 46 yds for a TD (Alex McPherson KICK) — AUB win probability +0.2 pts (now 99%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 0:44: Jackson Arnold pass complete to Eric Singleton Jr. for 30 yds for a TD (Alex McPherson KICK) — AUB win probability +0.3 pts (now 99%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 0:37: Jackson Arnold pass complete to Horatio Fields for 11 yds for a TD (Alex McPherson KICK) — AUB win probability +1.3 pts (now 99%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 7:32: Jeremiah Cobb run for 45 yds for a TD (Alex McPherson KICK) — AUB win probability +0.8 pts (now 100%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
  5. FG · Q3 1:04: Carson Holmer 22 yd FG GOOD — BALL win probability +1.0 pts (now 1%) (top driver: BALL has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
AUB made the numbers' call on 5 of 5BALL made the numbers' call on 12 of 14
  1. Q1 13:17BALL 4th & 5 at BALL 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.1%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.1%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:59AUB 4th & 22 at AUB 35, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.4%−0.2
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.6%
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:57BALL 4th & 20 at BALL 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.8%−0.2
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.0%
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:55BALL 4th & 12 at BALL 20, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.8%−0.1
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.0%
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:46BALL 4th & 1 at AUB 48, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    2.0%−0.2
    average punt
  6. Q2 8:05AUB 4th & 1 at BALL 48, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 97.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    97.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    97.5%−0.3
    average punt
  7. Q2 5:22AUB 4th & 21 at BALL 33, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 97.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.1%−0.3
    9% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    97.3%
    49% to make
    Punt
    97.2%−0.1
    average punt
  8. Q2 3:51BALL 4th & 16 at BALL 27, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.4%−0.2
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.6%
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:15BALL 4th & 16 at BALL 19, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.9%−0.3
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.2%
    average punt
  10. Q3 11:42AUB 4th & 14 at midfield, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.8%−0.1
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.9%
    average punt
  11. Q3 9:23BALL 4th & 5 at BALL 35, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 1.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.2%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    1.3%
    average punt
  12. Q3 9:12BALL 4th & 10 at BALL 30, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.1%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.2%
    average punt
  13. Q3 5:43BALL 4th & 14 at BALL 21, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−0.2
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.3%
    average punt
  14. Q3 1:04BALL 4th & 4 at AUB 4, down 28
    Close callKicked a field goal · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    0.1%−<0.1
    93% to make
    Punt
    -0.4%−0.5
    average punt
  15. Q4 9:38BALL 4th & 9 at BALL 26, down 32
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  16. Q4 9:38BALL 4th & 9 at BALL 26, down 32
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  17. Q4 6:57AUB 4th & 14 at AUB 23, up 32
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%−0.2
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    100.0%
    average punt
  18. Q4 5:23BALL 4th & 16 at BALL 22, down 32
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    -0.0%−0.1
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  19. Q4 3:03BALL 4th & 8 at BALL 27, down 39
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−<0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.0%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
AUB made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 4:15AUB Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 0:44AUB Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:37AUB Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 7:32AUB Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 12:22AUB Touchdown, up 31 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 5:13AUB Touchdown, up 38 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BALLDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:261% → 1%
Q1 14:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
99.3%
Qua Ashley run for 6 yds to the BALL 31Similar
Q1 14:05
2ND & 4
OWN 31
0
99.3%
Kiael Kelly pass incomplete to Qian MagwoodSimilar
Q1 13:53
3RD & 4
OWN 31
-1
99.3%
Kiael Kelly sacked by Xavier Atkins for a loss of 1 yard to the BALL 30Similar
Q1 13:17
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
99.3%
Adam Saul punt for 47 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 2PUNT
9 plays · 12 yds · 4:0399% → 99%
Q1 13:02
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+9
99.2%
Jackson Arnold pass complete to Cam Coleman for 9 yds to the AUB 32Similar
Q1 12:39
2ND & 1
OWN 32
+2
99.2%
Jeremiah Cobb run for 2 yds to the AUB 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:11
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
99.2%
Jackson Arnold pass incomplete to Cam ColemanSimilar
Q1 12:00
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+9
99.2%
Jackson Arnold pass complete to Horatio Fields for 9 yds to the AUB 43Similar
Q1 11:32
3RD & 1
OWN 43
+4
99.2%
Jeremiah Cobb run for 4 yds to the AUB 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:02
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-7
99.1%
Jackson Arnold sacked by Drew Hughes for a loss of 7 yards to the AUB 40Similar
Q1 10:14
2ND & 17
OWN 40
+5
99.1%
Jackson Arnold pass complete to Malcolm Simmons for 5 yds to the AUB 45Similar
Q1 9:23
3RD & 12
OWN 45
-10
99.0%
Jackson Arnold sacked by DeJuan Echoles Jr. for a loss of 10 yards to the AUB 35 Jackson Arnold fumbled, recovered by BALL Xavier Chaplin , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q1 8:59
4TH & 22
OWN 35
0
98.9%
Hudson Kaak punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Eric Weatherly at the BALL 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 3PUNT
8 plays · 5 yds · 3:491% → 1%
Q1 8:46
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
98.9%
Qua Ashley run for a loss of 1 yard to the BALL 19Similar
Q1 8:17
2ND & 11
OWN 19
0
98.9%
Kiael Kelly pass incomplete to Eric WeatherlySimilar
Q1 8:05
3RD & 11
OWN 19
+16
98.9%
Kiael Kelly pass complete to Ty Robinson for 16 yds to the BALL 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:24
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
98.8%
Qua Ashley run for 1 yd to the BALL 36Similar
Q1 6:46
2ND & 9
OWN 36
-5
98.8%
PENALTY BSU Delay Of Game (Kelly,Kiael) 5 yards from BSU36 to BSU31. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 6:17
2ND & 14
OWN 31
0
98.7%
Qua Ashley run for no gain to the BALL 31Similar
Q1 5:34
3RD & 14
OWN 31
-6
98.7%
Kiael Kelly sacked by Demarcus Riddick for a loss of 6 yards to the BALL 25Similar
Q1 4:57
4TH & 20
OWN 25
0
98.6%
Adam Saul punt for 30 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the AUB 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 4TD
2 plays · 55 yds · 0:2799% → 99%
Q1 4:42
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+9
98.6%
Jackson Arnold pass complete to Eric Singleton Jr. for 9 yds to the BALL 46Similar
Q1 4:15
2ND & 1
OPP 46
+46
98.8%
Jeremiah Cobb run for 46 yds for a TD (Alex McPherson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 2:081% → 1%
Q1 4:03
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+3
98.7%
Qua Ashley run for 3 yds to the BALL 25Similar
Q1 3:21
2ND & 7
OWN 25
+5
98.7%
Kiael Kelly pass complete to Qua Ashley for 5 yds to the BALL 20Similar
Q1 2:39
3RD & 12
OWN 20
0
98.6%
Qua Ashley run for no gain to the BALL 20Similar
Q1 1:55
4TH & 12
OWN 20
+1
98.6%
Adam Saul punt for 31 yds , Malcolm Simmons returns for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 6TD
4 plays · 50 yds · 1:0299% → 99%
Q1 1:46
1ST & 10
50
+7
98.6%
Jackson Arnold pass complete to Horatio Fields for 7 yds to the BALL 43Similar
Q1 1:14
2ND & 3
OPP 43
+13
98.5%
Jackson Arnold pass complete to Cam Coleman for 13 yds to the BALL 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:44
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+30
98.9%
Jackson Arnold pass complete to Eric Singleton Jr. for 30 yds for a TD (Alex McPherson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 7FUMBLE
13 plays · 53 yds · 4:561% → 2%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+3
98.7%
Elijah Jackson run for 3 yds to the BALL 15Similar
Q2 14:50
2ND & 7
OWN 15
+3
98.7%
Elijah Jackson run for 3 yds to the BALL 18Similar
Q2 14:28
3RD & 4
OWN 18
+3
98.6%
Elijah Jackson run for 3 yds to the BALL 21Similar
Q2 13:57
4TH & 1
OWN 21
+5
98.6%
PENALTY Auburn Offside (Crawford,Keyron) 5 yards from BSU21 to BSU26, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 13:39
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+2
98.6%
Kiael Kelly run for 2 yds to the BALL 28Similar
Q2 13:00
2ND & 8
OWN 28
0
98.5%
Kiael Kelly pass incomplete to Elisha DurhamSimilar
Q2 12:52
3RD & 8
OWN 28
+15
98.5%
(12:58) No Huddle-Shotgun Kelly,Kiael sacked for loss of 8 yards to the BSU20 (Williams,Amaris) PENALTY Auburn Face Mask (Williams,Amaris) 15 yards from BSU28 to BSU43, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:25
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+2
98.4%
Qua Ashley run for 2 yds to the BALL 45Similar
Q2 11:46
2ND & 8
OWN 45
+2
98.3%
Kiael Kelly run for 2 yds to the BALL 47Similar
Q2 11:03
3RD & 6
OWN 47
+5
98.2%
Kiael Kelly pass complete to Eric Weatherly for 5 yds to the AUB 48Similar
Q2 10:46
4TH & 1
OPP 48
+21
98.2%
Kiael Kelly run for 21 yds to the AUB 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:04
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-8
98.0%
Kiael Kelly run for a loss of 8 yards to the AUB 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 8MISSED FG
11 plays · 32 yds · 4:3998% → 98%
Q2 10:01
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-10
98.4%
Auburn Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the AUB 28Similar
Q2 9:32
1ST & 17
OWN 28
+15
98.3%
(09:32) No Huddle-Shotgun Arnold,Jackson pass intercepted by Conley,Darin at Auburn27, End Of Play PENALTY BSU Roughing The Passer (Voorhis,Nathan) 15 yards from Auburn28 to Auburn43, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:12
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
98.4%
Jackson Arnold pass incomplete to Malcolm SimmonsSimilar
Q2 8:52
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+8
98.4%
Jackson Arnold pass complete to Preston Howard for 8 yds to the BALL 49Similar
Q2 8:44
3RD & 2
OPP 49
+1
98.3%
Jeremiah Cobb run for 1 yd to the BALL 48Similar
Q2 8:05
4TH & 1
OPP 48
+3
98.1%
Jackson Arnold run for 3 yds to the BALL 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:25
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+23
98.2%
Jackson Arnold pass complete to Cam Coleman for 23 yds to the BALL 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:01
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
98.1%
Jackson Arnold pass incomplete to Preston HowardSimilar
Q2 6:42
2ND & 10
OPP 22
-3
98.1%
Jackson Arnold sacked by Caden Johnson for a loss of 3 yards to the BALL 25Similar
Q2 6:02
3RD & 13
OPP 25
-8
98.0%
Jackson Arnold sacked by Scott Hudson for a loss of 8 yards to the BALL 33Similar
Q2 5:22
4TH & 21
OPP 33
+52
97.7%
Towns McGough 52 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · -6 yds · 1:222% → 2%
Q2 5:13
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
97.7%
Qua Ashley run for no gain to the BALL 33Similar
Q2 4:39
2ND & 10
OWN 33
-6
97.7%
Kiael Kelly sacked by Keyron Crawford for a loss of 6 yards to the BALL 27Similar
Q2 3:59
3RD & 16
OWN 27
0
97.8%
Kiael Kelly pass incomplete to Kameron AnthonySimilar
Q2 3:51
4TH & 16
OWN 27
0
97.8%
Adam Saul punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Malcolm Simmons at the AUB 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 10TD
10 plays · 67 yds · 3:0198% → 99%
Q2 3:38
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+6
97.7%
Jackson Arnold pass complete to Cam Coleman for 6 yds to the AUB 39Similar
Q2 3:04
2ND & 4
OWN 39
+2
97.8%
Jackson Arnold pass complete to Malcolm Simmons for 2 yds to the AUB 41Similar
Q2 2:28
3RD & 2
OWN 41
+10
97.7%
Jackson Arnold pass complete to Cam Coleman for 10 yds to the BALL 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:11
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+6
97.8%
Jackson Arnold pass complete to Horatio Fields for 6 yds to the BALL 43Similar
Q2 1:51
2ND & 4
OPP 43
+18
98.0%
Jackson Arnold run for 18 yds to the BALL 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:38
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+2
98.0%
Jeremiah Cobb run for 2 yds to the BALL 23Similar
Q2 1:09
2ND & 8
OPP 23
+7
98.1%
Jackson Arnold pass complete to Perry Thompson for 7 yds to the BALL 16Similar
Q2 0:56
3RD & 1
OPP 16
+5
97.9%
Jeremiah Cobb run for 5 yds to the BALL 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:37
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
99.2%
Jackson Arnold pass complete to Horatio Fields for 11 yds for a TD (Alex McPherson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 11PUNT
7 plays · -6 yds · 0:171% → 1%
Q2 0:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
98.9%
Qua Ashley run for 1 yd to the BALL 26Similar
Q2 0:28
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+1
98.9%
Qua Ashley run for 1 yd to the BALL 27Similar
Q2 0:25
3RD & 8
OWN 27
-8
98.9%
Kiael Kelly sacked by Xavier Atkins for a loss of 8 yards to the BALL 19Similar
Q2 0:15
4TH & 16
OWN 19
0
98.9%
Adam Saul punt for 67 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 12END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 14
-1
99.2%
J. Arnold takes a kneeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 13PUNT
9 plays · 24 yds · 3:0599% → 99%
Q3 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+12
99.1%
Jackson Arnold pass complete to Eric Singleton Jr. for 12 yds to the AUB 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:11
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+7
99.2%
Jackson Arnold pass complete to Cam Coleman for 7 yds to the AUB 45Similar
Q3 13:50
2ND & 3
OWN 45
+9
99.1%
Jeremiah Cobb run for 9 yds to the BALL 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:18
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
99.1%
Jackson Arnold pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:07
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+6
99.2%
Jackson Arnold run for 6 yds to the BALL 40Similar
Q3 12:35
3RD & 4
OPP 40
-10
99.1%
(12:43) No Huddle-Shotgun Arnold,Jackson rush middle for 9 yards gain to the BSU31 (Chea,Alfred) PENALTY Auburn Holding (Wade,Dillon) 10 yards from BSU40 to BSU50. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 12:17
3RD & 14
50
0
99.1%
Jeremiah Cobb run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 11:42
4TH & 14
50
0
99.0%
Hudson Kaak punt for 20 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BALL 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 2:211% → 1%
Q3 11:33
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-6
99.0%
Kiael Kelly sacked by Keyron Crawford for a loss of 6 yards to the BALL 24 Kiael Kelly fumbled, recovered by BALL Kiael Kelly , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q3 10:46
2ND & 16
OWN 24
-4
99.0%
Qua Ashley run for a loss of 4 yards to the BALL 20Similar
Q3 9:23
4TH & 5
OWN 35
+10
99.0%
Kiael Kelly pass complete to Qian Magwood for 15 yds to the BALL 35 Kiael Kelly pass complete to Qian Magwood for 15 yds to the BALL 35 PENALTY BSU Delay Of Game (Saul,Adam) 5 yards from BSU35 to BSU30. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:12
4TH & 10
OWN 30
0
99.0%
Adam Saul punt for 49 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 15TD
5 plays · 79 yds · 1:3299% → 100%
Q3 9:04
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+4
99.1%
Jeremiah Cobb run for 4 yds to the AUB 25Similar
Q3 8:33
2ND & 6
OWN 25
+8
99.1%
Jackson Arnold pass complete to Malcolm Simmons for 8 yds to the AUB 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:56
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+22
99.1%
Jackson Arnold pass complete to Malcolm Simmons for 22 yds to the BALL 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:32
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+45
99.9%
Jeremiah Cobb run for 45 yds for a TD (Alex McPherson KICK)Similar
Q3 7:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-5
99.9%
PENALTY Auburn False Start (Ward,Jacobe') 5 yards from BSU03 to BSU08. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 16PUNT
6 plays · -4 yds · 1:370% → 0%
Q3 7:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.9%
Kiael Kelly pass complete to Eric Weatherly for no gain to the BALL 25Similar
Q3 6:49
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+1
99.9%
Qua Ashley run for 1 yd to the BALL 26Similar
Q3 6:19
3RD & 9
OWN 26
-5
99.9%
PENALTY BSU False Start (Anthony,Kameron) 5 yards from BSU26 to BSU21. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:54
3RD & 14
OWN 21
0
99.9%
Kiael Kelly pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:43
4TH & 14
OWN 21
0
99.9%
Adam Saul punt for 59 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 17FUMBLE
2 plays · 3 yds · 0:38100% → 100%
Q3 5:32
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-4
99.9%
Jackson Arnold run for a loss of 4 yards to the AUB 16Similar
Q3 4:54
2ND & 14
OWN 16
+7
99.9%
Jackson Arnold pass complete to Ryan Ghea for 7 yds to the AUB 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 18FG
9 plays · 19 yds · 3:340% → 1%
Q3 4:38
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+16
99.8%
Kiael Kelly pass complete to Eric Weatherly for 16 yds to the AUB 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
-2
99.8%
Kiael Kelly run for a loss of 2 yards to the AUB 9Similar
Q3 3:39
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
0
99.9%
Kiael Kelly run for no gain to the AUB 9Similar
Q3 3:33
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
+5
99.9%
(03:37) No Huddle-Shotgun Kelly,Kiael sacked for loss of 1 yard to the Auburn10 (Williams,Amaris) PENALTY Auburn Personal Foul (Williams,Amaris) 5 yards from Auburn09 to Auburn04, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-1
99.9%
Kiael Kelly run for a loss of 1 yard to the AUB 5Similar
Q3 2:26
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
-3
99.9%
Kiael Kelly run for a loss of 3 yards to the AUB 8Similar
Q3 1:36
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
+4
99.9%
Kiael Kelly pass complete to Qua Ashley for 4 yds to the AUB 4Similar
Q3 1:04
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+22
98.9%
Carson Holmer 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 19TD
10 plays · 72 yds · 3:25100% → 100%
Q3 0:47
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+4
99.6%
Omar Mabson II run for 4 yds to the AUB 32Similar
Q3 0:26
2ND & 6
OWN 32
+13
99.6%
Omar Mabson II run for 13 yds to the AUB 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
99.7%
Omar Mabson II run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 5
50
0
99.7%
Durell Robinson run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 14:22
3RD & 5
50
+8
99.7%
Jackson Arnold pass complete to Horatio Fields for 8 yds to the BALL 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:54
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+10
99.8%
Jackson Arnold run for 10 yds to the BALL 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:19
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+10
99.8%
Jackson Arnold pass complete to Horatio Fields for 10 yds to the BALL 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:51
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+9
99.8%
Jackson Arnold pass complete to Cam Coleman for 9 yds to the BALL 13Similar
Q4 12:22
2ND & 1
OPP 13
+13
99.9%
Jackson Arnold pass complete to Eric Singleton Jr. for 13 yds for a TD (Alex McPherson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 20PUNT
8 plays · 1 yds · 2:350% → 0%
Q4 12:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-12
99.9%
(12:21) No Huddle-Shotgun Kelly,Kiael pass complete short middle to Weatherly,Eric caught at BSU29, for 5 yards to the BSU30 (Smith,Jared) PENALTY BSU Pass Interference (Magwood,Qian) 12 yards from BSU25 to BSU13. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 11:50
1ST & 22
OWN 13
-3
99.9%
Elijah Jackson run for a loss of 3 yards to the BALL 10Similar
Q4 11:15
2ND & 25
OWN 10
+9
99.9%
Kiael Kelly pass complete to Eric Weatherly for 9 yds to the BALL 19Similar
Q4 10:26
3RD & 16
OWN 19
+12
99.9%
Kiael Kelly pass complete to Eric Weatherly for 12 yds to the BALL 31Similar
Q4 10:08
4TH & 4
OWN 31
-5
99.9%
PENALTY BSU Delay Of Game (Kelly,Kiael) 5 yards from BSU31 to BSU26. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:38
4TH & 9
OWN 26
+24
99.9%
Adam Saul punt for 50 yds , Malcolm Simmons returns for 24 yds to the AUB 48Similar
Q4 9:38
4TH & 9
OWN 26
+23
99.9%
Adam Saul punt for 49 yds , Malcolm Simmons returns for 23 yds to the AUB 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 21PUNT
7 plays · 8 yds · 2:38100% → 100%
Q4 9:35
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
99.9%
Deuce Knight pass incomplete to Bryce CainSimilar
Q4 9:29
2ND & 10
OWN 15
0
99.9%
Deuce Knight pass incomplete to Bryce CainSimilar
Q4 9:13
3RD & 10
OWN 15
+12
99.9%
Deuce Knight run for 12 yds to the AUB 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:49
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+3
99.9%
Omar Mabson II run for 3 yds to the AUB 30Similar
Q4 7:33
2ND & 7
OWN 30
-5
99.9%
Deuce Knight sacked by DeJuan Echoles Jr. for a loss of 5 yards to the AUB 25 Deuce Knight fumbled, recovered by BALL Deuce Knight , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q4 7:01
3RD & 12
OWN 25
-2
99.9%
Deuce Knight run for a loss of 2 yards to the AUB 23 Deuce Knight fumbled, recovered by BALL Deuce KnightSimilar
Q4 6:57
4TH & 14
OWN 23
0
99.9%
Hudson Kaak punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Eric Weatherly at the BALL 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · -6 yds · 1:250% → 0%
Q4 6:48
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+1
99.9%
Elijah Jackson run for 1 yd to the BALL 29Similar
Q4 6:14
2ND & 9
OWN 29
0
99.9%
Kiael Kelly pass incomplete to Qian MagwoodSimilar
Q4 6:06
3RD & 9
OWN 29
-7
99.9%
Kiael Kelly sacked by Jared Smith for a loss of 7 yards to the BALL 22Similar
Q4 5:23
4TH & 16
OWN 22
+15
99.9%
Adam Saul punt for 47 yds , Malcolm Simmons returns for 15 yds to the AUB 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 23TD
1 play · 54 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 5:13
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+54
99.9%
Durell Robinson run for 54 yds for a TD (Alex McPherson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 24PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:590% → 0%
Q4 5:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
100.0%
Kiael Kelly run for 2 yds to the BALL 27Similar
Q4 4:23
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+1
100.0%
Elijah Jackson run for 1 yd to the BALL 28Similar
Q4 3:40
3RD & 7
OWN 28
-1
100.0%
Kiael Kelly pass complete to Qua Ashley for a loss of 1 yard to the BALL 27Similar
Q4 3:03
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
100.0%
Adam Saul punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Bryce Cain at the AUB 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 25END OF GAME
9 plays · 30 yds · 3:03100% → 100%
Q4 3:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
99.9%
PENALTY Auburn Illegal Substitution 5 yards from Auburn25 to Auburn20. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 2:57
1ST & 15
OWN 20
0
99.9%
Deuce Knight pass incomplete to Sam TurnerSimilar
Q4 2:44
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+1
99.9%
Justin Jones run for 1 yd to the AUB 21Similar
Q4 2:04
3RD & 14
OWN 21
+14
99.9%
Deuce Knight pass complete to Camden Etheredge for 14 yds to the AUB 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:53
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+11
100.0%
Deuce Knight run for 11 yds to the AUB 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:14
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+5
100.0%
Justin Jones run for 5 yds to the BALL 49Similar
Q4 0:30
2ND & 5
OPP 49
+6
100.0%
Deuce Knight pass complete to Cam'Ron King for 6 yds to the BALL 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-2
100.0%
(00:06) Kneel down by Auburn at BSU45 for loss of 2 yards.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:37
Jackson Arnold pass complete to Horatio Fields for 11 yds for a TD (Alex McPherson KICK)
+1.3
FG · Q3 1:04
Carson Holmer 22 yd FG GOOD
-1
TD · Q3 7:32
Jeremiah Cobb run for 45 yds for a TD (Alex McPherson KICK)
+0.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com