2025 · Week 1 · Aug 30, 2025 · FirstBank Stadium
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Win probability · VAN
modelVAN aheadCHSO aheadconfidence bandkey playVAN scoreCHSO score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 14:00 · Gilbert Brown punt for 53 yds , Martel Hight returns for 11 yds to the VAN 27
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 6:59: Diego Pavia pass complete to Junior Sherrill for 12 yds for a TD (Brock Taylor KICK) — VAN win probability +0.1 pts (now 99%) (top driver: VAN has the ball).
- TD · Q2 10:19: AJ Newberry run for 4 yds for a TD (Brock Taylor KICK) — VAN win probability +0.9 pts (now 99%) (top driver: VAN has the ball).
- TD · Q2 3:11: Diego Pavia pass complete to Sedrick Alexander for 26 yds for a TD (Brock Taylor KICK) — VAN win probability +0.5 pts (now 100%) (top driver: VAN has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
VAN made the numbers' call on 2 of 3CHSO made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
- Q1 8:31CHSO 4th & 13 at CHSO 22, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.1% before the snapGo for it2.0%−0.219% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.2%average punt
- Q2 9:14CHSO 4th & 6 at CHSO 19, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.6% before the snapGo for it1.5%−0.138% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.5%average punt
- Q2 6:02VAN 4th & 6 at CHSO 46, up 21Close callPunted · 98.5% before the snapGo for it98.5%40% to convertField goal98.3%−0.223% to makePuntTheir call98.5%−<0.1average punt
- Q2 5:02CHSO 4th & 16 at CHSO 14, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.6% before the snapGo for it1.3%−0.314% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.7%average punt
- Q2 0:59CHSO 4th & 1 at CHSO 44, down 28Close callPunted · 0.6% before the snapGo for it0.6%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.4%−0.2average punt
- Q3 14:00CHSO 4th & 4 at CHSO 31, down 28Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.4% before the snapGo for it0.4%−0.148% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.5%average punt
- Q3 10:26VAN 4th & 9 at VAN 39, up 28Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.7% before the snapGo for it99.7%−0.132% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.7%average punt
- Q3 8:14CHSO 4th & 5 at CHSO 10, down 28Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snapGo for it0.2%−<0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
- Q4 11:48VAN 4th & 8 at CHSO 17, up 35Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.8%−0.132% to convertField goalTheir call99.9%80% to makePunt99.5%−0.4average punt
- Q4 9:26CHSO 4th & 16 at CHSO 19, down 38Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it-0.0%−0.114% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 1:48CHSO 4th & 14 at VAN 39, down 45Close callWent for it · 0.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.0%−<0.119% to convertField goal0.0%36% to makePunt0.0%−<0.1average punt
- Q4 0:07CHSO 4th & 7 at VAN 21, down 45Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.0% before the snapGo for it0.0%−<0.135% to convertField goalTheir call0.0%74% to makePunt0.0%−<0.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
VAN made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
- Q1 10:13VAN Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.1%97% to makeGo for two98.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 6:59VAN Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.0%97% to makeGo for two98.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 10:19VAN Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.6%97% to makeGo for two98.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 3:11VAN Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.8%97% to makeGo for two99.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 5:47VAN Touchdown, up 34 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 7:14VAN Touchdown, up 44 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartVANDrive 1TD9 plays · 75 yds · 4:3899% → 99%
Q1 13:17
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+13
98.9%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Kayleb Barnett for 13 yds to the CHSO 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:27
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+8
98.8%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Tre Richardson for 8 yds to the CHSO 21Similar
Q1 10:48
2ND & 2
OPP 21
+12
98.7%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Tre Richardson for 12 yds to the CHSO 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
98.7%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Kayleb Barnett for 9 yds for a TD (Brock Taylor KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CHSODrive 2PUNT6 plays · -3 yds · 1:361% → 1%
VANDrive 3TD4 plays · 53 yds · 1:1899% → 99%
CHSODrive 4INT8 plays · 38 yds · 3:471% → 2%
VANDrive 5TD16 plays · 89 yds · 7:3599% → 99%
Q1 1:20
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+12
98.4%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Tre Richardson for 12 yds to the VAN 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 5
OWN 42
+17
98.4%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Tre Richardson for 17 yds to the CHSO 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:45
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
98.4%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Martel Hight for no gain to the CHSO 41Similar
Q2 12:51
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-5
98.2%
PENALTY Vandy Delay Of Game (Pavia,Diego) 5 yards from CSU17 to CSU22. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:55
3RD & 5
OPP 12
+8
98.0%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Richie Hoskins for 8 yds to the CHSO 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CHSODrive 6PUNT5 plays · 4 yds · 0:441% → 1%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 7PUNT7 plays · 21 yds · 3:0399% → 99%
CHSODrive 8PUNT4 plays · -6 yds · 0:561% → 1%
Q2 5:02
4TH & 16
OWN 14
0
98.7%
Gilbert Brown punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Martel Hight at the VAN 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 9TD6 plays · 64 yds · 1:4499% → 100%
Q2 4:55
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+8
99.0%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Kayleb Barnett for 8 yds to the VAN 44Similar
Q2 3:28
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
99.1%
(03:29) No Huddle-Shotgun Pavia,Diego pass incomplete deep middle to Hudson,Trent thrown to CSU30 broken up by Paulk,Anthony PENALTY Vandy Holding offsetting CSU Pass Interference offsetting. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 3:23
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+25
99.1%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Tre Richardson for 25 yds to the CHSO 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:11
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+26
99.5%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Sedrick Alexander for 26 yds for a TD (Brock Taylor KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CHSODrive 10PUNT9 plays · 9 yds · 2:051% → 1%
Q2 2:19
2ND & 10
OWN 35
-10
99.5%
(02:22) No Huddle-Shotgun Osborne,Zolten pass complete short middle to Kindell,Quay caught at CSU33, for 4 yards to the CSU39 (Fontenette,Randon) PENALTY CSU Holding (Moore,Nebanye) 10 yards from CSU35 to CSU25. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:39
3RD & 16
OWN 29
+15
99.6%
Zolten Osborne pass complete to Quay Kindell for 15 yds to the CHSO 44Similar
Q2 0:59
4TH & 1
OWN 44
0
99.5%
Gilbert Brown punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Martel Hight at the VAN 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 11END OF HALF8 plays · 39 yds · 0:49100% → 100%
Q2 0:38
2ND & 13
OWN 13
+27
99.7%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Eli Stowers for 27 yds to the VAN 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:27
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+17
99.7%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Junior Sherrill for 17 yds to the CHSO 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:17
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-10
99.7%
(00:21) Shotgun Pavia,Diego pass complete deep left to Hoskins,Richie caught at CSU15, for 43 yards to the CSU00 TOUCHDOWN nullified by penalty, clock 00:17 PENALTY Vandy Holding (Henderson,Bryce) 10 yards from CSU43 to Vandy47. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:11
1ST & 20
OWN 47
-10
99.7%
(00:14) Shotgun Pavia,Diego pass complete deep right to Sherrill,Junior caught at CSU33, for 20 yards to the CSU33, out of bounds at CSU33 PENALTY Vandy Holding (Glass,Isaia) 10 yards from Vandy47 to Vandy37. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 30
OWN 37
+18
99.7%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Eli Stowers for 18 yds to the CHSO 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CHSODrive 12PUNT5 plays · 6 yds · 0:551% → 0%
Q3 14:00
4TH & 4
OWN 31
+11
99.7%
Gilbert Brown punt for 53 yds , Martel Hight returns for 11 yds to the VAN 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 13PUNT7 plays · 12 yds · 3:28100% → 100%
Q3 13:06
2ND & 3
OWN 34
+4
99.7%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Junior Sherrill for 4 yds to the VAN 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:37
2ND & 5
OWN 43
+1
99.8%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Richie Hoskins for 1 yd to the VAN 44Similar
Q3 11:03
3RD & 4
OWN 44
-5
99.8%
PENALTY Vandy False Start (Glass,Isaia) 5 yards from Vandy44 to Vandy39. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 10:26
4TH & 9
OWN 39
0
99.8%
Nick Haberer punt for 56 yds, fair catch by Quay Kindell at the CHSO 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CHSODrive 14PUNT4 plays · 5 yds · 2:050% → 0%
Q3 8:53
3RD & 8
OWN 7
+3
99.8%
Zolten Osborne pass complete to Chris Rhone for 3 yds to the CHSO 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 15TD6 plays · 21 yds · 2:13100% → 100%
Q3 8:00
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
99.8%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Eli Stowers for no gain to the CHSO 21Similar
Q3 6:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+1
99.9%
Sedrick Alexander run for 1 yd to the CHSO 9 Sedrick Alexander fumbled, recovered by CHSO Sedrick AlexanderSimilar
Q3 5:54
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
-10
99.9%
(05:57) No Huddle-Shotgun Alexander,Sedrick rush left for 9 yards gain to the CSU00 TOUCHDOWN nullified by penalty, clock 05:54 PENALTY Vandy Holding (Glass,Isaia) 10 yards from CSU09 to CSU19. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:49
2ND & GOAL
OPP 19
+15
99.9%
(05:52) No Huddle-Shotgun Pavia,Diego pass incomplete short right to Heard,CJ thrown to CSU00, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY CSU Pass Interference (Dixon,Avery) 15 yards from CSU19 to CSU04, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CHSODrive 16FUMBLE10 plays · 20 yds · 5:020% → 0%
Q3 5:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
99.9%
Zolten Osborne pass complete to Ke'Marion Baldwin for 3 yds to the CHSO 28Similar
Q3 2:32
3RD & 3
OWN 42
+7
99.9%
Zolten Osborne pass complete to Isaiah Gordon for 7 yds to the CHSO 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:34
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+5
99.9%
Zolten Osborne pass complete to Mekhi Campfield for 5 yds to the VAN 46Similar
Q3 0:31
3RD & 5
OPP 46
-9
99.9%
Zolten Osborne sacked by Miles Capers for a loss of 9 yards to the CHSO 45 Zolten Osborne fumbled, recovered by CHSO Khordae Sydnor , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 17Uncategorized6 plays · 26 yds · 2:13100% → 100%
Q4 13:20
2ND & 9
OPP 34
+5
99.9%
Blaze Berlowitz pass complete to Brycen Coleman for 5 yds to the CHSO 29Similar
Q4 12:47
3RD & 4
OPP 29
+10
99.9%
(12:47) Shotgun Berlowitz,Blaze pass intercepted by at CSU12 PENALTY CSU Pass Interference (Tucker,Canii) 10 yards from CSU29 to CSU19, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:47
3RD & 4
OPP 29
+10
99.9%
(12:47) Shotgun Berlowitz,Blaze pass intercepted by Cook,Knai at CSU12 PENALTY CSU Pass Interference (Tucker,Canii) 10 yards from CSU29 to CSU19, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 18FG4 plays · 2 yds · 0:49100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CHSODrive 19PUNT5 plays · -6 yds · 2:100% → 0%
Q4 10:09
3RD & 9
OWN 26
-7
99.9%
Zolten Osborne sacked by Zaylin Wood for a loss of 7 yards to the CHSO 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 20TD5 plays · 59 yds · 2:05100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CHSODrive 21FG16 plays · 54 yds · 6:470% → 0%
Q4 6:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+19
100.0%
Jared Echols pass complete to Jamil Bishop for 19 yds to the CHSO 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:44
3RD & 4
50
+15
100.0%
(04:44) Shotgun Echols,Jared pass incomplete deep left to Bishop,Jamil thrown to Vandy24 broken up by Ruth,Jailen PENALTY Vandy Pass Interference (Ruth,Jailen) 15 yards from CSU50 to Vandy35, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 4:37
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-14
100.0%
(04:41) No Huddle-Shotgun Gordon,Isaiah rush middle for 1 yard gain to the Vandy34 (Curtis,Jamison; Daniels,Cayden) PENALTY CSU Tripping (Lancaster,Josiah) 14 yards from Vandy35 to Vandy49. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 4:03
1ST & 24
OPP 49
-6
100.0%
Lek Powell sacked by Hayden Bray for a loss of 6 yards to the CHSO 45Similar
Q4 1:48
4TH & 14
OPP 39
+15
100.0%
Lek Powell pass complete to Hunter Green for 15 yds to the VAN 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 10:19
AJ Newberry run for 4 yds for a TD (Brock Taylor KICK)
+0.9
TD · Q2 3:11
Diego Pavia pass complete to Sedrick Alexander for 26 yds for a TD (Brock Taylor KICK)
+0.5
TD · Q1 6:59
Diego Pavia pass complete to Junior Sherrill for 12 yds for a TD (Brock Taylor KICK)
+0.1