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SYR

Syracuse 26 at Tennessee 45

TENN
2025 · Week 1 · Aug 30, 2025 · Mercedes-Benz Stadium
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Win probability · TENN
modelTENN aheadSYR aheadconfidence bandkey playTENN scoreSYR score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDFUMBLETDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 6:52 · Steve Angeli punt for 34 yds, downed at the TENN 2
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+34.0+17.00−17.0−34.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 79Pregame prior+22.2Home team on offense+10.4Score differential+3.7Garbage-time factor+1.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+3.3Time remaining+0.8
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 11:40: Yasin Willis run for 2 yds for a TD (Tripp Woody KICK) — SYR win probability +5.4 pts (now 18%) (top driver: SYR has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 11:14: Joey Aguilar pass complete to Braylon Staley for 73 yds for a TD (Max Gilbert KICK) — TENN win probability +6.7 pts (now 90%) (top driver: TENN has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 1:55: Johntay Cook Ii 3 Yd pass from Steve Angeli (Tripp Woody Kick) — SYR win probability +5.9 pts (now 18%) (top driver: SYR has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 0:21: DeSean Bishop run for 1 yd for a TD (Max Gilbert KICK) — TENN win probability +5.4 pts (now 92%) (top driver: TENN has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 11:54: Yasin Willis run for 1 yd for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed) — SYR win probability +5.1 pts (now 9%) (top driver: SYR has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TENN made the numbers' call on 3 of 5SYR made the numbers' call on 6 of 9
  1. Q1 12:46TENN 4th & 9 at SYR 16, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 81.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.3%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    81.3%
    81% to make
    Punt
    80.9%−0.4
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:37SYR 4th & 6 at midfield, down 3
    Close callPunted · 19.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.3%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:53SYR 4th & 24 at SYR 21, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.3%−1.2
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.5%
    average punt
  4. Q2 12:43SYR 4th & 10 at TENN 35, down 17
    Close callWent for it · 12.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    12.6%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    12.7%
    45% to make
    Punt
    12.2%−0.5
    average punt
  5. Q2 6:52SYR 4th & 16 at TENN 36, down 17
    Close callPunted · 11.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.6%−0.8
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    11.4%
    42% to make
    PuntTheir call
    11.1%−0.3
    average punt
  6. Q2 5:33TENN 4th & 2 at TENN 10, up 17
    Close callPunted · 89.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.3%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.5%−0.8
    average punt
  7. Q2 3:09SYR 4th & 1 at TENN 5, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 12.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    12.2%
    67% to convert
    Field goal
    9.7%−2.4
    92% to make
    Punt
    4.8%−7.4
    average punt
  8. Q3 6:24TENN 4th & 8 at TENN 27, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.4%−0.8
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.2%
    average punt
  9. Q3 4:44SYR 4th & 8 at SYR 19, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.9%−0.6
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.5%
    average punt
  10. Q3 2:13TENN 4th & 3 at TENN 46, up 18
    Close callPunted · 95.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.7%−0.2
    average punt
  11. Q4 14:00SYR 4th & 1 at TENN 34, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    2.7%−1.7
    47% to make
    Punt
    2.1%−2.2
    average punt
  12. Q4 10:06TENN 4th & 7 at SYR 49, up 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.8%−0.3
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.1%
    average punt
  13. Q4 8:39SYR 4th & 11 at SYR 10, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.9%−0.3
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.2%
    average punt
  14. Q4 1:55SYR 4th & 4 at TENN 4, down 19
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.8%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    1.7%−0.1
    93% to make
    Punt
    0.7%−1.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TENN made the numbers' call on 4 of 5SYR made the numbers' call on 2 of 4
  1. Q1 6:02TENN Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 11:40SYR Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    17.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    17.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 11:14TENN Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 1:55SYR Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    15.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    15.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:21TENN Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 12:22TENN Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 7:33SYR Touchdown, down 18 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    6.0%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    5.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 11:54SYR Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    8.3%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    8.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 3:57TENN Touchdown, up 18 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.4%−0.4
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.7%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TENNDrive 1FG
12 plays · 59 yds · 1:5984% → 84%
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
83.8%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Mike Matthews for 13 yds to the TENN 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:35
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+9
83.8%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Chris Brazzell II for 9 yds to the TENN 47Similar
Q1 14:27
2ND & 1
OWN 47
+15
83.8%
Syracuse Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the SYR 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:15
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+5
83.7%
DeSean Bishop run for 5 yds to the SYR 33Similar
Q1 14:08
2ND & 5
OPP 33
-5
83.7%
Tennessee Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the SYR 38Similar
Q1 13:53
2ND & 10
OPP 38
0
83.7%
Joey Aguilar pass incomplete to Amari JeffersonSimilar
Q1 13:40
3RD & 10
OPP 38
+21
83.6%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to DeSean Bishop for 21 yds to the SYR 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:22
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+1
83.6%
DeSean Bishop run for 1 yd to the SYR 16Similar
Q1 12:56
2ND & 9
OPP 16
0
83.5%
Joey Aguilar pass incomplete to Mike MatthewsSimilar
Q1 12:50
3RD & 9
OPP 16
0
83.4%
Joey Aguilar pass incomplete to Chris Brazzell IISimilar
Q1 12:46
4TH & 9
OPP 16
+34
83.5%
Max Gilbert 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 2PUNT
7 plays · 25 yds · 2:2717% → 17%
Q1 12:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+21
83.3%
Steve Angeli pass complete to Will Nixon for 21 yds to the SYR 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:49
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+1
83.1%
Will Nixon run for 1 yd to the SYR 47Similar
Q1 11:12
2ND & 9
OWN 47
+4
82.9%
Yasin Willis run for 4 yds to the TENN 49Similar
Q1 10:45
3RD & 5
OPP 49
-5
82.7%
Syracuse Penalty, Illegal Shift (-5 Yards) to the SYR 46Similar
Q1 10:12
3RD & 10
OWN 46
+4
82.8%
Steve Angeli pass complete to Johntay Cook for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 9:37
4TH & 6
50
0
82.7%
Jack Stonehouse punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Braylon Staley at the TENN 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 3TD
13 plays · 85 yds · 3:2583% → 84%
Q1 9:27
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+7
82.6%
Peyton Lewis run for 7 yds to the TENN 22Similar
Q1 9:06
2ND & 3
OWN 22
+25
82.6%
Joey Aguilar run for 25 yds to the TENN 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:47
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+7
82.7%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Chris Brazzell II for 7 yds to the SYR 46Similar
Q1 8:25
2ND & 3
OPP 46
0
82.8%
Joey Aguilar pass incomplete to Mike MatthewsSimilar
Q1 8:15
3RD & 3
OPP 46
+5
82.6%
Peyton Lewis run for 5 yds to the SYR 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:59
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
82.7%
Joey Aguilar pass incomplete to Braylon StaleySimilar
Q1 7:55
2ND & 10
OPP 41
0
82.7%
Joey Aguilar pass incomplete to Ethan DavisSimilar
Q1 7:43
3RD & 10
OPP 41
+18
82.4%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Chris Brazzell II for 18 yds to the SYR 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:30
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+1
82.7%
Peyton Lewis run for 1 yd to the SYR 22Similar
Q1 7:18
2ND & 9
OPP 22
+5
82.6%
Syracuse Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the SYR 17Similar
Q1 6:58
2ND & 4
OPP 17
+7
82.6%
Peyton Lewis run for 7 yds to the SYR 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+8
82.5%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Miles Kitselman for 8 yds to the SYR 2Similar
Q1 6:02
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
83.9%
Peyton Lewis run for 2 yds for a TD (Max Gilbert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 4PUNT
9 plays · -4 yds · 2:5917% → 16%
Q1 5:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
83.1%
Yasin Willis run for 7 yds to the SYR 32Similar
Q1 5:08
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+3
82.8%
Yasin Willis run for 3 yds to the SYR 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:35
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
82.8%
Steve Angeli run for 1 yd to the SYR 36Similar
Q1 3:47
2ND & 9
OWN 36
0
83.7%
Steve Angeli pass incomplete to Johntay CookSimilar
Q1 3:30
3RD & 9
OWN 36
-10
84.3%
Steve Angeli sacked by Arion Carter for a loss of 10 yards to the SYR 26Similar
Q1 3:00
4TH & 19
OWN 26
-5
84.6%
Syracuse Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the SYR 21Similar
Q1 2:53
4TH & 24
OWN 21
0
84.5%
Jack Stonehouse punt for 57 yds, fair catch by Daune Morris at the TENN 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 5FUMBLE
7 plays · 49 yds · 1:4384% → 84%
Q1 2:49
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
83.8%
Joey Aguilar pass incomplete to Chris Brazzell IISimilar
Q1 2:35
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+13
83.6%
Star Thomas run for 13 yds to the TENN 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:24
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
83.8%
Star Thomas run for 4 yds to the TENN 39Similar
Q1 2:00
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+14
84.1%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Braylon Staley for 14 yds to the SYR 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:35
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+8
84.2%
Joey Aguilar run for 8 yds to the SYR 39Similar
Q1 1:22
2ND & 2
OPP 39
+14
84.3%
Star Thomas run for 14 yds to the SYR 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:06
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-4
84.4%
Joey Aguilar run for a loss of 4 yards to the SYR 29 Joey Aguilar fumbled, recovered by SYRSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 6FUMBLE TD
1 play · -7 yds · 0:0013% → 13%
Q1 0:56
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+22
87.1%
Steve Angeli run for a loss of 7 yards Steve Angeli fumbled, recovered by TENN Colton Hood , return for 22 yds (Max Gilbert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 7TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 4:0513% → 18%
Q1 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
87.2%
Will Nixon run for 3 yds to the SYR 28Similar
Q1 0:05
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+7
87.8%
Steve Angeli pass complete to Tyshawn Russell for 7 yds to the SYR 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
87.8%
Yasin Willis run for 4 yds to the SYR 39Similar
Q2 14:21
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+15
87.7%
Tennessee Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the TENN 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+8
87.5%
Steve Angeli pass complete to Dan Villari for 8 yds to the TENN 38Similar
Q2 13:40
2ND & 2
OPP 38
+3
87.5%
Max Runyon run for 3 yds to the TENN 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:09
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
87.4%
Steve Angeli pass incomplete to Johntay CookSimilar
Q2 13:01
2ND & 10
OPP 35
0
87.5%
Steve Angeli pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:57
3RD & 10
OPP 35
0
88.1%
Steve Angeli pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:43
4TH & 10
OPP 35
+29
88.4%
Steve Angeli pass complete to Johntay Cook for 29 yds to the TENN 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+4
87.5%
Yasin Willis run for 4 yds to the TENN 2Similar
Q2 11:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
82.1%
Yasin Willis run for 2 yds for a TD (Tripp Woody KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 8TD
3 plays · 75 yds · 0:1684% → 90%
Q2 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
83.6%
DeSean Bishop run for 2 yds to the TENN 27Similar
Q2 11:14
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+73
90.2%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Braylon Staley for 73 yds for a TD (Max Gilbert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 9PUNT
14 plays · 39 yds · 4:1711% → 11%
Q2 11:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
88.8%
Steve Angeli pass incomplete to Johntay CookSimilar
Q2 11:05
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
88.8%
Steve Angeli pass incomplete to Justus Ross-SimmonsSimilar
Q2 10:54
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+11
88.8%
Steve Angeli pass complete to Johntay Cook for 11 yds to the SYR 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:15
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
88.4%
Yasin Willis run for 5 yds to the SYR 41Similar
Q2 9:57
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+14
88.1%
Yasin Willis run for 14 yds to the TENN 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:20
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+3
88.0%
Will Nixon run for 3 yds to the TENN 42Similar
Q2 9:03
2ND & 7
OPP 42
+12
88.1%
Steve Angeli pass complete to Johntay Cook for 12 yds to the TENN 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:30
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+1
87.8%
Steve Angeli pass complete to Jamie Tremble for 1 yd to the TENN 29Similar
Q2 7:52
2ND & 9
OPP 29
0
87.4%
Steve Angeli pass incomplete to Justus Ross-SimmonsSimilar
Q2 7:27
3RD & 9
OPP 29
-7
88.0%
Steve Angeli sacked by Edwin Spillman for a loss of 7 yards to the TENN 36Similar
Q2 6:52
4TH & 16
OPP 36
0
89.2%
Steve Angeli punt for 34 yds, downed at the TENN 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:1591% → 91%
Q2 6:48
1ST & 10
OWN 2
0
91.1%
Joey Aguilar pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:39
2ND & 10
OWN 2
+2
91.1%
Peyton Lewis run for 2 yds to the TENN 4Similar
Q2 6:08
3RD & 8
OWN 4
+6
91.1%
Peyton Lewis run for 6 yds to the TENN 10Similar
Q2 5:33
4TH & 2
OWN 10
0
90.9%
Jackson Ross punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Rickie Collins at the TENN 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 11TD
11 plays · 49 yds · 3:2012% → 18%
Q2 5:15
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+5
88.4%
Steve Angeli pass complete to Justus Ross-Simmons for 5 yds to the TENN 44Similar
Q2 5:00
2ND & 5
OPP 44
+15
88.2%
Steve Angeli pass complete to Dan Villari for 15 yds to the TENN 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:47
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
87.7%
Steve Angeli pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:41
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+15
87.9%
Tennessee Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the TENN 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:36
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+5
87.8%
Tennessee Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the TENN 9Similar
Q2 4:20
1ST & 5
OPP 9
+2
87.8%
Dan Villari run for 2 yds to the TENN 7Similar
Q2 4:04
2ND & 3
OPP 7
+1
87.8%
Yasin Willis run for 1 yd to the TENN 6Similar
Q2 3:48
3RD & 2
OPP 6
+1
88.4%
Yasin Willis run for 1 yd to the TENN 5Similar
Q2 3:09
4TH & 1
OPP 5
+1
88.7%
Yasin Willis run for 1 yd to the TENN 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
88.1%
Yasin Willis run for 1 yd to the TENN 3Similar
Q2 1:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
82.2%
Johntay Cook Ii 3 Yd pass from Steve Angeli (Tripp Woody Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 12TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 1:2485% → 92%
Q2 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
84.5%
Joey Aguilar pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:35
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+47
84.8%
DeSean Bishop run for 47 yds to the SYR 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:23
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+16
86.5%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Mike Matthews for 16 yds to the SYR 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:55
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+7
86.9%
DeSean Bishop run for 7 yds to the SYR 5Similar
Q2 0:38
2ND & 3
OPP 5
+4
86.9%
DeSean Bishop run for 4 yds to the SYR 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
92.3%
DeSean Bishop run for 1 yd for a TD (Max Gilbert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 13END OF HALF
2 plays · -11 yds · 0:0010% → 10%
Q2 0:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-11
90.2%
Steve Angeli sacked by Joshua Josephs for a loss of 11 yards to the SYR 14 Steve Angeli fumbled, forced by Joshua Josephs, recovered by SYR Da'Metrius Weatherspoon , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 14INT
3 plays · 0 yds · 0:059% → 9%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
90.6%
Steve Angeli pass incomplete to Darrell Gill jr.Similar
Q3 14:49
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
90.7%
Steve Angeli pass intercepted Jeremiah Telander return for no gain to the SYR 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 15TD
7 plays · 17 yds · 2:1491% → 96%
Q3 14:36
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+8
91.4%
Star Thomas run for 8 yds to the SYR 9Similar
Q3 14:19
2ND & 2
OPP 9
-10
91.5%
Star Thomas run for 5 yds to the SYR 4 Tennessee Penalty, Illegal Block (-15 Yards) to the SYR 19Similar
Q3 14:09
2ND & 12
OPP 19
+5
91.5%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Braylon Staley for 5 yds to the SYR 14Similar
Q3 13:34
3RD & 7
OPP 14
+8
91.0%
Joey Aguilar run for 8 yds to the SYR 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
-1
91.7%
Star Thomas run for a loss of 1 yard to the SYR 7Similar
Q3 12:31
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
0
92.3%
Joey Aguilar pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:22
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
96.1%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Star Thomas for 7 yds for a TD (Max Gilbert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 16TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 4:324% → 7%
Q3 12:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+23
95.9%
Steve Angeli pass complete to Justus Ross-Simmons for 23 yds to the SYR 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+5
95.8%
Will Nixon run for 5 yds to the TENN 47Similar
Q3 11:33
2ND & 5
OPP 47
+10
95.7%
Will Nixon run for 10 yds to the TENN 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:16
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
95.8%
Steve Angeli pass incomplete to Johntay CookSimilar
Q3 11:05
2ND & 10
OPP 37
-1
96.3%
Steve Angeli pass complete to Johntay Cook for a loss of 1 yard to the TENN 38Similar
Q3 10:21
3RD & 11
OPP 38
+22
96.4%
Steve Angeli pass complete to Justus Ross-Simmons for 22 yds to the TENN 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:01
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+7
96.0%
Yasin Willis run for 7 yds to the TENN 9Similar
Q3 9:42
2ND & 3
OPP 9
+2
96.1%
Yasin Willis run for 2 yds to the TENN 7Similar
Q3 9:15
3RD & 1
OPP 7
+3
96.4%
Will Nixon run for 3 yds to the TENN 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
96.4%
Yasin Willis run for no gain to the TENN 4Similar
Q3 7:51
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
96.7%
Yasin Willis run for 3 yds to the TENN 1Similar
Q3 7:33
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
93.3%
Yasin Willis run for 1 yd for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:5796% → 95%
Q3 7:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
95.5%
Daune Morris run for 2 yds to the TENN 27Similar
Q3 7:07
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
95.6%
Daune Morris run for no gain to the TENN 27Similar
Q3 6:34
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
95.5%
Joey Aguilar pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:24
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
95.2%
Jackson Ross punt for 56 yds, downed at the SYR 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:366% → 5%
Q3 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-5
94.2%
Max Runyon run for a loss of 5 yards to the SYR 12Similar
Q3 5:23
2ND & 15
OWN 12
+7
94.7%
Steve Angeli pass complete to Darrell Gill jr. for 7 yds to the SYR 19Similar
Q3 4:53
3RD & 8
OWN 19
0
94.9%
Steve Angeli pass incomplete to Justus Ross-SimmonsSimilar
Q3 4:44
4TH & 8
OWN 19
0
95.0%
Steve Angeli punt for 58 yds, fair catch by Daune Morris at the TENN 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 19PUNT
6 plays · 23 yds · 2:1796% → 96%
Q3 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+16
96.0%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Chris Brazzell II for 16 yds to the TENN 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:04
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+8
96.3%
Peyton Lewis run for 8 yds to the TENN 47Similar
Q3 4:00
2ND & 2
OWN 47
-5
96.3%
Tennessee Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the TENN 42Similar
Q3 3:33
2ND & 7
OWN 42
+3
96.4%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Braylon Staley for 3 yds to the TENN 45Similar
Q3 3:01
3RD & 4
OWN 45
+1
96.4%
Joey Aguilar run for 1 yd to the TENN 46Similar
Q3 2:13
4TH & 3
OWN 46
0
96.2%
Jackson Ross punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Rickie Collins at the SYR 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 20TD
14 plays · 88 yds · 5:095% → 9%
Q3 2:03
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+8
95.3%
Yasin Willis run for 8 yds to the SYR 20Similar
Q3 1:47
2ND & 2
OWN 20
+5
95.1%
Yasin Willis run for 5 yds to the SYR 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
95.4%
Steve Angeli pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:16
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
95.4%
Yasin Willis run for 4 yds to the SYR 29Similar
Q3 0:30
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+28
95.7%
Steve Angeli pass complete to Tyshawn Russell for 28 yds to the TENN 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:03
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+5
95.6%
Tyshawn Russell run for 5 yds to the TENN 38Similar
Q4 14:58
2ND & 5
OPP 38
+4
95.4%
Will Nixon run for 4 yds to the TENN 34Similar
Q4 14:20
3RD & 1
OPP 34
0
95.5%
Will Nixon run for no gain to the TENN 34Similar
Q4 14:00
4TH & 1
OPP 34
+8
95.9%
Steve Angeli pass complete to David Clement for 8 yds to the TENN 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:08
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+11
95.6%
Steve Angeli run for 11 yds to the TENN 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:45
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+8
95.2%
Yasin Willis run for 8 yds to the TENN 7Similar
Q4 12:31
2ND & 2
OPP 7
+5
95.2%
Yasin Willis run for 5 yds to the TENN 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
96.2%
Dan Villari run for 1 yd to the TENN 1Similar
Q4 11:54
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
91.1%
Yasin Willis run for 1 yd for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 21PUNT
6 plays · 26 yds · 1:2994% → 94%
Q4 11:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+23
94.3%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to DeSean Bishop for 23 yds to the TENN 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:25
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-2
94.8%
DeSean Bishop run for a loss of 2 yards to the TENN 46Similar
Q4 10:43
2ND & 12
OWN 46
+5
94.7%
DeSean Bishop run for 5 yds to the SYR 49Similar
Q4 10:14
3RD & 7
OPP 49
0
94.7%
Joey Aguilar pass incomplete to Mike MatthewsSimilar
Q4 10:06
4TH & 7
OPP 49
0
94.2%
Jackson Ross punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Rickie Collins at the SYR 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 1:155% → 5%
Q4 9:54
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+4
94.7%
Will Nixon run for 4 yds to the SYR 15Similar
Q4 9:29
2ND & 6
OWN 15
-5
94.7%
Steve Angeli sacked by Jalen McMurray for a loss of 5 yards to the SYR 10Similar
Q4 8:49
3RD & 11
OWN 10
0
94.9%
Steve Angeli pass incomplete to Darrell Gill jr.Similar
Q4 8:39
4TH & 11
OWN 10
+2
95.0%
Steve Angeli punt for 46 yds , Braylon Staley returns for 2 yds to the TENN 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 23TD
11 plays · 54 yds · 4:3595% → 99%
Q4 8:32
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+22
95.3%
Star Thomas run for 22 yds to the SYR 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:43
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+3
95.5%
Star Thomas run for 3 yds to the SYR 29Similar
Q4 7:10
2ND & 7
OPP 29
+12
96.0%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Chris Brazzell II for 12 yds to the SYR 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:53
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+6
96.1%
Star Thomas run for 6 yds to the SYR 11Similar
Q4 6:05
2ND & 4
OPP 11
+3
96.3%
Star Thomas run for 3 yds to the SYR 8Similar
Q4 6:00
3RD & 1
OPP 8
-5
96.2%
Tennessee Penalty, Ineligible Downfield on Pass (-5 Yards) to the SYR 13Similar
Q4 5:26
3RD & 6
OPP 13
+12
96.3%
Star Thomas run for 12 yds to the SYR 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-4
96.8%
Joey Aguilar run for a loss of 4 yards to the SYR 5Similar
Q4 4:25
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
97.1%
Star Thomas run for 3 yds to the SYR 2Similar
Q4 3:57
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
99.1%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Miles Kitselman for 2 yds for a TD (Max Gilbert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 24DOWNS
10 plays · 71 yds · 1:552% → 2%
Q4 3:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
98.2%
Steve Angeli pass complete to Dan Villari for 6 yds to the SYR 31Similar
Q4 3:30
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+8
98.1%
Steve Angeli pass complete to Will Nixon for 8 yds to the SYR 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+6
98.2%
Steve Angeli pass complete to Dan Villari for 6 yds to the SYR 45Similar
Q4 2:40
2ND & 4
OWN 45
+26
98.2%
Steve Angeli pass complete to Darrell Gill jr. for 26 yds to the TENN 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:27
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+20
97.8%
Steve Angeli pass complete to Dan Villari for 20 yds to the TENN 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
97.8%
Steve Angeli pass incomplete to Will NixonSimilar
Q4 2:04
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
0
97.8%
Steve Angeli pass incomplete to Dan VillariSimilar
Q4 2:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
+5
97.9%
Steve Angeli pass complete to Tyshawn Russell for 5 yds to the TENN 4Similar
Q4 1:55
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
0
97.9%
Steve Angeli pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 25END OF GAME
3 plays · 10 yds · 0:5499% → 99%
Q4 1:24
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+9
99.3%
DeSean Bishop run for 9 yds to the TENN 13Similar
Q4 1:07
2ND & 1
OWN 13
+3
99.3%
DeSean Bishop run for 3 yds to the TENN 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 16
-2
99.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the TENN 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 11:14
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Braylon Staley for 73 yds for a TD (Max Gilbert KICK)
+6.7
TD · Q2 1:55
Johntay Cook Ii 3 Yd pass from Steve Angeli (Tripp Woody Kick)
-5.9
TD · Q2 11:40
Yasin Willis run for 2 yds for a TD (Tripp Woody KICK)
-5.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com