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MSST

Mississippi State 34 at Southern Miss 17

USM
2025 · Week 1 · Aug 30, 2025 · M. M. Roberts Stadium
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Win probability · USM
modelUSM aheadMSST aheadconfidence bandkey playUSM scoreMSST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 9:37 · Jack Murley punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Anthony Evans III at the MSST 6
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsOffense timeouts
+52.5+26.30−26.3−52.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 19Pregame prior−34.0Home team on offense−1.0Score differential−0.3Garbage-time factor−0.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.3Offense timeouts+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 9:32: Micah Davis 3 Yd pass from Braylon Braxton (Reed Harradine Kick) — USM win probability +6.7 pts (now 28%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 9:32: Timeout Southern Miss, clock 09:32 — MSST win probability +3.8 pts (now 76%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  3. FG · Q2 0:03: Kyle Ferrie 30 Yd Field Goal — MSST win probability +3.6 pts (now 74%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 9:34: Fluff Bothwell 6 Yd Run (Kyle Ferrie Kick) — MSST win probability +7.1 pts (now 83%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 4:57: Fluff Bothwell 1 Yd Run (Kyle Ferrie Kick) — MSST win probability +6.7 pts (now 93%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
USM made the numbers' call on 9 of 10MSST made the numbers' call on 4 of 6
  1. Q1 9:37USM 4th & 8 at midfield, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.9%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.9%
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:54USM 4th & 9 at MSST 25, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 21.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.3%−0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    21.4%
    66% to make
    Punt
    20.4%−1.0
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:35MSST 4th & 16 at USM 37, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 75.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.6%−0.4
    16% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    76.0%
    40% to make
    Punt
    75.9%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:54USM 4th & 1 at MSST 45, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 23.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    23.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    21.7%−1.9
    25% to make
    Punt
    22.3%−1.2
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:57MSST 4th & 10 at MSST 45, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.8%−0.5
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.3%
    average punt
  6. Q2 8:11MSST 4th & 1 at MSST 34, tied
    Close callPunted · 69.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.6%−0.9
    average punt
  7. Q2 5:59USM 4th & 7 at MSST 49, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.2%−0.2
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.4%
    average punt
  8. Q2 5:59USM 4th & 7 at MSST 49, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.2%−0.2
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.4%
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:03MSST 4th & 12 at USM 12, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 66.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.1%−1.5
    19% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    66.6%
    86% to make
    Punt
    59.1%−7.5
    average punt
  10. Q3 12:44USM 4th & 25 at USM 31, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.7%−4.7
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.4%
    average punt
  11. Q3 7:56USM 4th & 8 at USM 27, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.7%−1.0
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.7%
    average punt
  12. Q3 0:28USM 4th & 1 at USM 34, down 24
    Close callPunted · 3.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.0%−0.2
    average punt
  13. Q4 13:40MSST 4th & 2 at MSST 28, up 24
    Close callPunted · 97.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.7%−0.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 8:39USM 4th & 3 at MSST 9, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    1.8%−0.2
    89% to make
    Punt
    0.7%−1.3
    average punt
  15. Q4 4:49MSST 4th & 10 at MSST 31, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.0%−0.2
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.1%
    average punt
  16. Q4 1:19USM 4th & 5 at MSST 28, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.7%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    0.6%−0.2
    60% to make
    Punt
    0.5%−0.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USM made the numbers' call on 2 of 2MSST made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 13:35MSST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 9:32USM Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    29.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    29.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 9:34MSST Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 4:57MSST Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 1:52MSST Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 0:33USM Touchdown, down 18 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    1.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    1.6%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MSSTDrive 1TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 1:1086% → 85%
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
14.5%
Blake Shapen run for 3 yds to the MSST 28Similar
Q1 14:07
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+3
14.8%
Blake Shapen run for 3 yds to the MSST 31Similar
Q1 13:44
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+12
15.0%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Seydou Traore for 12 yds to the MSST 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+2
15.0%
Davon Booth run for 2 yds to the MSST 45Similar
Q1 13:35
2ND & 8
OWN 45
0
15.0%
Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Brenen ThompsonSimilar
Q1 13:35
3RD & 8
OWN 45
+55
14.8%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Seydou Traore for 55 yds for a TD (Kyle Ferrie KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 2PUNT
12 plays · 25 yds · 3:4515% → 16%
Q1 13:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
14.9%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Carl Chester for 9 yds to the USM 34Similar
Q1 13:08
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+3
15.0%
Jeffery Pittman run for 3 yds to the USM 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
15.1%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Jeffery Pittman for 1 yd to the USM 38Similar
Q1 12:02
2ND & 9
OWN 38
+6
15.3%
Jeffery Pittman run for 6 yds to the USM 44Similar
Q1 11:43
3RD & 3
OWN 44
+4
15.5%
Jeffery Pittman run for 4 yds to the USM 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:06
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+4
15.7%
Matt Jones run for 4 yds to the MSST 48Similar
Q1 10:44
2ND & 6
OPP 48
0
15.9%
Matt Jones run for no gain to the MSST 48Similar
Q1 10:17
3RD & 6
OPP 48
+3
15.9%
Braylon Braxton run for 3 yds to the MSST 45Similar
Q1 9:43
4TH & 3
OPP 45
-5
16.1%
PENALTY USM Delay Of Game (Braxton,Braylon) 5 yards from MSU45 to MSU50. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 9:37
4TH & 8
50
0
15.9%
Jack Murley punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Anthony Evans III at the MSST 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 3INT
4 plays · 11 yds · 0:5584% → 84%
Q1 9:27
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+4
15.9%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Brenen Thompson for 4 yds to the MSST 10Similar
Q1 9:08
2ND & 6
OWN 10
+2
16.0%
Fluff Bothwell run for 2 yds to the MSST 12Similar
Q1 8:49
3RD & 4
OWN 12
+5
16.1%
Blake Shapen run for 5 yds to the MSST 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:32
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
16.0%
Blake Shapen pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 4FG
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:3117% → 17%
Q1 8:25
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
16.7%
Braylon Braxton pass incomplete to Carl ChesterSimilar
Q1 8:10
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+1
16.7%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Jeffery Pittman for 1 yd to the MSST 25Similar
Q1 7:59
3RD & 9
OPP 25
0
16.6%
Braylon Braxton pass incomplete to Micah DavisSimilar
Q1 7:54
4TH & 9
OPP 25
+43
17.4%
Reed Harradine 43 Yd Field GoalSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 5FG
14 plays · 38 yds · 4:1383% → 83%
Q1 7:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
17.3%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Ricky Johnson for 2 yds to the MSST 27Similar
Q1 7:32
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
17.4%
Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Ayden WilliamsSimilar
Q1 7:32
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+5
17.6%
PENALTY USM Illegal Substitution 5 yards from MSU27 to MSU32. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:26
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+7
17.5%
Davon Booth run for 7 yds to the MSST 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:06
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+14
17.4%
Davon Booth run for 14 yds to the USM 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:46
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+16
17.2%
Davon Booth run for 16 yds to the USM 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:08
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-4
17.1%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Anthony Evans III for 6 yds to the USM 25 Mississippi State Penalty, Offensive Holding (Jordan Mosley) to the USM 35Similar
Q1 5:38
1ST & 14
OPP 35
+3
17.3%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Jordan Mosley for 3 yds to the USM 32Similar
Q1 5:04
2ND & 11
OPP 32
0
17.4%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Anthony Evans III for no gain to the USM 32Similar
Q1 4:34
3RD & 11
OPP 32
-5
17.9%
(04:43) No Huddle-Shotgun Shapen,Blake pass complete short middle to Bothwell,Fluff caught at USM25, for 25 yards to the USM07, out of bounds at USM07 PENALTY MSU Illegal Formation 5 yards from USM32 to USM37. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 4:09
3RD & 16
OPP 37
0
18.4%
Blake Shapen run for no gain to the USM 37Similar
Q1 3:35
4TH & 16
OPP 37
+55
17.1%
Kyle Ferrie 55 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 6DOWNS
11 plays · 30 yds · 3:3216% → 18%
Q1 3:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
16.4%
Robert Briggs Jr. run for 2 yds to the USM 27Similar
Q1 3:03
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+4
16.5%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Jaylin Carter for 4 yds to the USM 31Similar
Q1 2:39
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+5
16.6%
Braylon Braxton run for 5 yds to the USM 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-2
17.1%
Jeffery Pittman run for a loss of 2 yards to the USM 34Similar
Q1 1:47
2ND & 12
OWN 34
+10
16.9%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Kadinn Morris for 10 yds to the USM 44Similar
Q1 1:21
3RD & 2
OWN 44
+2
17.5%
Jeffery Pittman run for 2 yds to the USM 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:38
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
17.8%
Robert Briggs Jr. run for no gain to the USM 46Similar
Q1 0:08
2ND & 10
OWN 46
0
17.6%
Braylon Braxton pass incomplete to Kyirin HeathSimilar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 10
OWN 46
+9
17.4%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Carl Chester for 9 yds to the MSST 45Similar
Q2 14:54
4TH & 1
OPP 45
0
17.9%
Braylon Braxton run for no gain to the MSST 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:4283% → 82%
Q2 14:39
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
17.0%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Xavier Gayten for 4 yds to the MSST 41Similar
Q2 14:19
2ND & 14
OWN 41
+4
17.8%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Johnnie Daniels for 4 yds to the MSST 45Similar
Q2 14:03
3RD & 10
OWN 45
0
17.5%
Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Xavier GaytenSimilar
Q2 13:57
4TH & 10
OWN 45
0
18.2%
Nathan Tiyce punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Elijah Metcalf at the USM 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 8TD
14 plays · 81 yds · 4:1718% → 28%
Q2 13:49
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+4
18.3%
Braylon Braxton run for 4 yds to the USM 23Similar
Q2 13:26
2ND & 6
OWN 23
+7
18.4%
Braylon Braxton run for 7 yds to the USM 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:57
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-4
18.6%
Braylon Braxton sacked by Will Whitson for a loss of 4 yards to the USM 26Similar
Q2 12:30
2ND & 14
OWN 26
+5
18.5%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Matt Jones for 5 yds to the USM 31Similar
Q2 11:51
3RD & 9
OWN 31
+28
18.6%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Kadinn Morris for 28 yds to the MSST 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:33
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+3
20.2%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Carl Chester for 3 yds to the MSST 38Similar
Q2 10:56
2ND & 7
OPP 38
+12
20.7%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Elijah Metcalf for 12 yds to the MSST 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:39
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+1
21.3%
Jeffery Pittman run for 1 yd to the MSST 25Similar
Q2 9:55
2ND & 9
OPP 25
+22
21.4%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Carl Chester for 22 yds to the MSST 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
21.5%
Braylon Braxton pass incomplete to Elijah MetcalfSimilar
Q2 9:38
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
21.5%
Braylon Braxton pass incomplete to Kyirin HeathSimilar
Q2 9:32
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
28.2%
Micah Davis 3 Yd pass from Braylon Braxton (Reed Harradine Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:1576% → 75%
Q2 9:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
24.4%
Davon Booth run for 4 yds to the MSST 29Similar
Q2 8:58
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+5
24.5%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Seydou Traore for 5 yds to the MSST 34Similar
Q2 8:46
3RD & 1
OWN 34
0
24.8%
Davon Booth run for no gain to the MSST 34Similar
Q2 8:11
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
25.3%
Ethan Pulliam punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Jabari Ishmael at the USM 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 10PUNT
10 plays · 15 yds · 2:0728% → 29%
Q2 8:06
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+5
27.6%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Kyirin Heath for 5 yds to the USM 36Similar
Q2 7:29
2ND & 5
OWN 36
0
29.0%
Braylon Braxton pass incomplete to Bralon BrownSimilar
Q2 7:21
3RD & 5
OWN 36
+12
27.8%
Braylon Braxton run for 12 yds to the USM 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:58
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
30.0%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Matt Jones for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 6:32
2ND & 8
50
+1
30.4%
Matt Jones run for 1 yd to the MSST 49Similar
Q2 6:07
3RD & 7
OPP 49
0
30.1%
Braylon Braxton pass incomplete to Carl ChesterSimilar
Q2 5:59
4TH & 7
OPP 49
0
28.6%
Jack Murley punt for 49 yds for a touchbackSimilar
Q2 5:59
4TH & 7
OPP 49
0
28.6%
Jack Murley punt for 49 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 11FG
21 plays · 63 yds · 5:4774% → 74%
Q2 5:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
26.4%
Fluff Bothwell run for 8 yds to the MSST 33Similar
Q2 5:28
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+1
26.2%
Fluff Bothwell run for 1 yd to the MSST 34Similar
Q2 4:44
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+3
27.5%
Kamario Taylor run for 3 yds to the MSST 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:17
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+19
27.3%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Anthony Evans III for 19 yds to the USM 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+7
25.9%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Brenen Thompson for 7 yds to the USM 37Similar
Q2 3:47
2ND & 3
OPP 37
-10
25.7%
(03:47) No Huddle-Shotgun Shapen,Blake pass complete short right to Booth,Davon caught at USM39, for 4 yards to the USM33 (Moten,Josh; Jones,Chris) PENALTY MSU Holding (Steen,Blake) 10 yards from USM37 to USM47. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 3:29
2ND & 13
OPP 47
+10
27.3%
Southern Miss Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Josh Moten) to the USM 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:24
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-1
26.2%
Mississippi State Penalty, Illegal Formation (Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 3:00
2ND & 11
OPP 38
+8
26.5%
Southern Miss Penalty, Personal Foul (8 Yards) to the USM 30Similar
Q2 2:46
3RD & 3
OPP 30
+10
26.4%
Fluff Bothwell run for 10 yds to the USM 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:29
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-1
25.3%
Fluff Bothwell run for a loss of 1 yard to the USM 21Similar
Q2 2:05
2ND & 11
OPP 21
+5
25.9%
(02:06) PENALTY USM Offside (Clinton,Mason) 5 yards from USM21 to USM16. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 6
OPP 16
+10
26.0%
Davon Booth run for 10 yds to the USM 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
-5
26.3%
(01:34) PENALTY MSU False Start 5 yards from USM06 to USM11. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 11
0
26.5%
Blake Shapen run for no gain to the USM 11Similar
Q2 0:46
2ND & GOAL
OPP 11
+5
27.0%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Seydou Traore for 5 yds to the USM 6Similar
Q2 0:27
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+4
27.8%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Brenen Thompson for 4 yds to the USM 2Similar
Q2 0:06
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
-10
29.8%
(00:10) No Huddle-Shotgun Taylor,Kamario rush left for 2 yards gain to the USM00 TOUCHDOWN nullified by penalty, clock 00:06 PENALTY MSU Holding (Ball,Cam) 10 yards from USM02 to USM12. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:03
4TH & GOAL
OPP 12
+30
26.2%
Kyle Ferrie 30 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 12END OF HALF
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0026% → 26%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
25.7%
(00:03) Kneel down by Southern Miss at USM23 for loss of 2 yards.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 13PUNT
8 plays · -1 yds · 2:0128% → 26%
Q3 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+5
28.2%
Jeffery Pittman run for 5 yds to the USM 37Similar
Q3 14:23
2ND & 5
OWN 37
0
29.7%
Braylon Braxton pass incomplete to Carl ChesterSimilar
Q3 14:09
3RD & 5
OWN 37
+9
27.8%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Carl Chester for 9 yds to the USM 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:50
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-3
30.5%
Jeffery Pittman run for a loss of 3 yards to the USM 43Similar
Q3 13:19
2ND & 13
OWN 43
0
28.6%
Braylon Braxton pass incomplete to Elijah MetcalfSimilar
Q3 13:08
3RD & 13
OWN 43
-15
27.6%
Southern Miss Penalty, Personal Foul (-15 Yards) to the USM 31Similar
Q3 12:44
4TH & 25
OWN 31
0
26.4%
Jack Murley punt for 35 yds , Anthony Evans III returns for no gain to the MSST 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 14TD
9 plays · 66 yds · 2:5673% → 83%
Q3 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
26.8%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Seydou Traore for no gain to the MSST 34Similar
Q3 12:10
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+11
27.7%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Anthony Evans III for 11 yds to the MSST 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:36
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+45
26.4%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Brenen Thompson for 55 yds for a 1ST down Mississippi State Penalty, Offensive Holding (Brylan Lanier) to the USM 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:30
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+5
24.9%
Davon Booth run for 5 yds to the USM 9Similar
Q3 11:01
2ND & 5
OPP 9
+8
25.1%
Davon Booth run for 8 yds to the USM 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
25.2%
Davon Booth run for no gain to the USM 1Similar
Q3 10:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-5
24.4%
Mississippi State Penalty, Illegal Formation (-5 Yards) to the USM 6Similar
Q3 9:34
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
17.3%
Fluff Bothwell 6 Yd Run (Kyle Ferrie Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:2717% → 16%
Q3 9:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
17.1%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Elijah Metcalf for 1 yd to the USM 26Similar
Q3 8:49
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+1
17.1%
Robert Briggs Jr. run for 1 yd to the USM 27Similar
Q3 8:06
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
16.4%
Braylon Braxton pass incomplete to Robert Briggs Jr.Similar
Q3 7:56
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
16.3%
Jack Murley punt for 40 yds , Anthony Evans III returns for no gain to the MSST 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 16TD
15 plays · 67 yds · 2:5983% → 93%
Q3 7:56
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-10
17.3%
Mississippi State Penalty, Offensive Holding (Ja'Bryis Stewart) to the MSST 23Similar
Q3 7:48
1ST & 20
OWN 23
+2
18.0%
Davon Booth run for 2 yds to the MSST 25Similar
Q3 7:28
2ND & 18
OWN 25
+12
18.3%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Brenen Thompson for 12 yds to the MSST 37Similar
Q3 7:08
3RD & 6
OWN 37
+13
16.8%
Johnnie Daniels run for 13 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:50
1ST & 10
50
0
16.0%
Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Markus AllenSimilar
Q3 6:39
2ND & 10
50
+16
16.1%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Jordan Mosley for 16 yds to the USM 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:23
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
14.7%
Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Brenen ThompsonSimilar
Q3 6:18
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+7
14.8%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Ayden Williams for 7 yds to the USM 27Similar
Q3 5:53
3RD & 3
OPP 27
+10
15.1%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Ayden Williams for 10 yds to the USM 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:33
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+11
14.5%
Fluff Bothwell run for 11 yds to the USM 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
13.7%
Fluff Bothwell run for 5 yds to the USM 1Similar
Q3 4:57
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
7.0%
Fluff Bothwell 1 Yd Run (Kyle Ferrie Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 17INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q3 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
4.6%
Braylon Braxton pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 18TD
10 plays · 42 yds · 2:3694% → 98%
Q3 4:28
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+6
5.9%
Stonka Burnside run for 6 yds to the USM 36Similar
Q3 4:11
2ND & 4
OPP 36
+6
5.4%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Johnnie Daniels for 6 yds to the USM 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:52
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
5.5%
Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Johnnie DanielsSimilar
Q3 3:46
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+2
5.6%
Davon Booth run for 2 yds to the USM 28Similar
Q3 3:17
3RD & 8
OPP 28
+12
5.5%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Davon Booth for 12 yds to the USM 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:52
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+6
5.5%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Brenen Thompson for 6 yds to the USM 10Similar
Q3 2:36
2ND & 4
OPP 10
+6
4.7%
Davon Booth run for 6 yds to the USM 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
4.7%
Davon Booth run for 1 yd to the USM 3Similar
Q3 1:52
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
1.7%
Davon Booth 3 Yd Run (Kyle Ferrie Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:131% → 1%
Q3 1:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
1.3%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Micah Davis for 3 yds to the USM 28Similar
Q3 1:21
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+5
1.3%
Matt Jones run for 5 yds to the USM 33Similar
Q3 1:06
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+1
1.3%
Matt Jones run for 1 yd to the USM 34Similar
Q3 0:28
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
1.2%
Jack Murley punt for 46 yds , Brylan Lanier returns for no gain to the MSST 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 20PUNT
7 plays · 8 yds · 1:2098% → 99%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-6
1.6%
Blake Shapen sacked by JJ Hawkins for a loss of 6 yards to the MSST 14 Blake Shapen fumbled, recovered by MSST Jacoby Jackson , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 16
OWN 14
-5
1.6%
PENALTY MSU False Start (Lewis Jr.,Jimothy) 5 yards from MSU14 to MSU09. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 21
OWN 9
+10
1.6%
Johnnie Daniels run for 10 yds to the MSST 19Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 11
OWN 19
+9
1.7%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Johnnie Daniels for 9 yds to the MSST 28Similar
Q4 13:40
4TH & 2
OWN 28
0
1.3%
Ethan Pulliam punt for 47 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the USM 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 21DOWNS
15 plays · 68 yds · 4:541% → 1%
Q4 13:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
0.7%
Jeffery Pittman run for no gain to the USM 25Similar
Q4 13:11
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+8
0.7%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Jeffery Pittman for 8 yds to the USM 33Similar
Q4 12:48
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+3
0.7%
Braylon Braxton run for 3 yds to the USM 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:33
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-5
0.7%
PENALTY USM False Start 5 yards from USM36 to USM31. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:03
1ST & 15
OWN 31
+37
0.7%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Jeffery Pittman for 37 yds to the MSST 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:42
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
0.8%
Braylon Braxton pass incomplete to Tychaun ChapmanSimilar
Q4 11:29
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+4
0.8%
Braylon Braxton run for 4 yds to the MSST 28Similar
Q4 10:52
3RD & 6
OPP 28
+12
0.8%
Braylon Braxton run for 12 yds to the MSST 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:14
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+1
0.8%
Elijah Metcalf run for 1 yd to the MSST 15Similar
Q4 9:50
2ND & 9
OPP 15
+4
0.8%
Robert Briggs Jr. run for 4 yds to the MSST 11Similar
Q4 9:18
3RD & 5
OPP 11
+2
0.7%
Robert Briggs Jr. run for 2 yds to the MSST 9Similar
Q4 8:39
4TH & 3
OPP 9
+2
0.7%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Jeffery Pittman for 2 yds to the MSST 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 22PUNT
12 plays · 24 yds · 3:4099% → 100%
Q4 8:29
1ST & 10
OWN 7
-4
0.8%
(08:34) No Huddle-Shotgun Daniels,Johnnie rush middle for 0 yards to the MSU07 (Montgomery,Michael; Jones,Chris) PENALTY MSU Holding (Jackson,Jacoby) 4 yards from MSU07 to MSU03. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 8:08
1ST & 14
OWN 3
+2
0.8%
Johnnie Daniels run for 2 yds to the MSST 5Similar
Q4 7:23
2ND & 12
OWN 5
+3
0.7%
Luke Kromenhoek run for 3 yds to the MSST 8Similar
Q4 6:58
3RD & 9
OWN 8
+13
0.8%
Luke Kromenhoek run for 13 yds to the MSST 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:25
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+7
0.5%
Luke Kromenhoek pass complete to Markus Allen for 7 yds to the MSST 28Similar
Q4 6:07
2ND & 3
OWN 28
+3
0.5%
Johnnie Daniels run for 3 yds to the MSST 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:32
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
0.5%
Luke Kromenhoek pass incomplete to Cam ThompsonSimilar
Q4 5:27
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+5
0.5%
Luke Kromenhoek run for 5 yds to the MSST 36Similar
Q4 4:57
3RD & 5
OWN 36
0
0.4%
Luke Kromenhoek pass incomplete to Stonka BurnsideSimilar
Q4 4:57
4TH & 5
OWN 36
-5
0.4%
PENALTY MSU Delay Of Game (Tiyce,Nathan) 5 yards from MSU36 to MSU31. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 4:49
4TH & 10
OWN 31
0
0.4%
Nathan Tiyce punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Jabari Ishmael at the USM 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 23TD
15 plays · 73 yds · 4:070% → 0%
Q4 4:40
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-10
0.2%
(04:48) No Huddle-Shotgun Braxton,Braylon pass complete short left to King,Shane caught at USM37, for 0 yards to the USM27 (Reyes,Cyrus; Moye,Diesel) PENALTY USM Holding (Rogers,Luke) 10 yards from USM27 to USM17. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 4:18
1ST & 20
OWN 17
+6
0.2%
Robert Briggs Jr. run for 6 yds to the USM 23Similar
Q4 3:54
2ND & 14
OWN 23
+6
0.2%
Braylon Braxton run for 6 yds to the USM 29Similar
Q4 3:20
3RD & 8
OWN 29
+11
0.2%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Chuck Montgomery for 11 yds to the USM 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:59
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+15
0.2%
(03:04) No Huddle-Shotgun Braxton,Braylon pass incomplete deep left to Dalton,Davis thrown to MSU38 PENALTY MSU Pass Interference 15 yards from USM40 to MSU45, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 2:52
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+10
0.2%
Mississippi State Penalty, Defensive Holding (10 Yards) to the MSST 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:22
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
0.2%
Braylon Braxton pass incomplete to Grant PageSimilar
Q4 2:14
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+3
0.2%
Robert Briggs Jr. run for 3 yds to the MSST 30Similar
Q4 1:45
3RD & 7
OPP 30
+2
0.1%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Robert Briggs Jr. for 2 yds to the MSST 28Similar
Q4 1:19
4TH & 5
OPP 28
+6
0.1%
Braylon Braxton run for 6 yds to the MSST 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:06
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+15
0.1%
(01:11) No Huddle-Shotgun Braxton,Braylon pass incomplete deep right to Page,Grant thrown to MSU00 broken up by Reyes,Cyrus PENALTY MSU Pass Interference (Reyes,Cyrus) 15 yards from MSU22 to MSU07, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 0:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
0.1%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Matt Jones for no gain to the MSST 7Similar
Q4 0:33
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
0.3%
TJ Johnson 7 Yd pass from Braylon Braxton (Reed Harradine Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 24END OF GAME
2 plays · 3 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
0.4%
Kolin Wilson run for 3 yds to the MSST 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 9:34
Fluff Bothwell 6 Yd Run (Kyle Ferrie Kick)
-7.1
TD · Q2 9:32
Micah Davis 3 Yd pass from Braylon Braxton (Reed Harradine Kick)
+6.7
TD · Q3 4:57
Fluff Bothwell 1 Yd Run (Kyle Ferrie Kick)
-6.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com