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TOL

Toledo 16 at Kentucky 24

UK
2025 · Week 1 · Aug 30, 2025 · Kroger Field
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Win probability · UK
modelUK aheadTOL aheadconfidence bandkey playUK scoreTOL score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDSAFETYFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 8:21 · Emilio Duran punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Ty Bryant at the UK 38
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+28.5+14.30−14.3−28.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 105Home team on offense+8.9Pregame prior+8.6Garbage-time factor−0.7Score differential+2.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+2.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+1.4
This game in five plays
  1. SAFETY · Q2 13:08: Langston Long Safety — TOL win probability +3.0 pts (now 29%) (top driver: UK has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 12:30: Seth McGowan run for 6 yds for a TD (Jacob Kauwe KICK) — UK win probability +6.2 pts (now 95%) (top driver: UK has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 9:38: Tucker Gleason run for 9 yds for a TD (Dylan Cunanan KICK) — TOL win probability +9.4 pts (now 16%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 9:22: Dante Dowdell run for 79 yds for a TD (Jacob Kauwe KICK) — UK win probability +9.4 pts (now 96%) (top driver: UK has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 1:55: Tucker Gleason pass complete to Junior Vandeross III for 20 yds for a TD (Dylan Cunanan KICK) — TOL win probability +11.1 pts (now 15%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UK made the numbers' call on 7 of 9TOL made the numbers' call on 8 of 10
  1. Q1 10:43UK 4th & 10 at UK 42, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.2%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.3%
    average punt
  2. Q1 4:02TOL 4th & 9 at TOL 26, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.5%−0.3
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.7%
    average punt
  3. Q2 13:13TOL 4th & 2 at UK 4, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 25.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    24.9%
    50% to convert
    Field goal
    24.2%−0.7
    93% to make
    Punt
    20.8%−4.0
    average punt
  4. Q2 11:25TOL 4th & 20 at TOL 13, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.3%−1.9
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.2%
    average punt
  5. Q2 7:28TOL 4th & 1 at UK 48, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 28.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    28.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    26.4%−1.7
    average punt
  6. Q2 2:04UK 4th & 7 at TOL 27, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 74.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.8%−0.4
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    74.1%
    62% to make
    Punt
    70.5%−3.7
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:07TOL 4th & 15 at TOL 38, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.0%−1.5
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.5%
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:18UK 4th & 4 at UK 30, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 79.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.3%−0.8
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.1%
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:18UK 4th & 4 at UK 30, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 79.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.3%−0.8
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.1%
    average punt
  10. Q3 13:44TOL 4th & 2 at TOL 33, down 8
    Close callPunted · 20.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.5%−0.1
    average punt
  11. Q3 10:03UK 4th & 10 at TOL 39, up 8
    Close callPunted · 80.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.3%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    80.0%−0.3
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    80.2%−0.1
    average punt
  12. Q3 10:03UK 4th & 10 at TOL 39, up 8
    Close callPunted · 80.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.3%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    80.0%−0.3
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    80.2%−0.1
    average punt
  13. Q3 8:21TOL 4th & 4 at TOL 26, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.4%−0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.5%
    average punt
  14. Q3 6:22UK 4th & 9 at TOL 43, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.3%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    82.4%−1.0
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    83.4%
    average punt
  15. Q3 3:57TOL 4th & 4 at TOL 46, down 8
    Close callPunted · 17.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.3%−0.4
    average punt
  16. Q4 8:14TOL 4th & 3 at TOL 32, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    4.5%−0.1
    average punt
  17. Q4 5:24TOL 4th & 3 at UK 44, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    3.2%−0.6
    27% to make
    Punt
    3.1%−0.7
    average punt
  18. Q4 4:23UK 4th & 8 at UK 46, up 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.0%−0.2
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.1%
    average punt
  19. Q4 4:23UK 4th & 8 at UK 46, up 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.0%−0.2
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.1%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UK made the numbers' call on 3 of 3TOL made the numbers' call on 0 of 2
  1. Q1 6:27UK Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q4 12:30UK Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 9:38TOL Touchdown, down 9 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    12.7%−0.4
    97% to make
    Go for two
    13.1%
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 9:22UK Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.9%−0.4
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 1:55TOL Touchdown, down 9 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    4.5%−0.9
    97% to make
    Go for two
    5.4%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UKDrive 1PUNT
8 plays · 14 yds · 4:0372% → 71%
Q1 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+10
71.7%
Toledo Penalty, Defensive holding (10 Yards) to the UK 21Similar
Q1 14:23
1ST & 17
OWN 21
+2
71.6%
Seth McGowan run for 2 yds to the UK 23Similar
Q1 13:40
2ND & 15
OWN 23
+8
71.5%
Zach Calzada pass complete to Willie Rodriguez for 8 yds to the UK 31Similar
Q1 12:55
3RD & 7
OWN 31
+11
71.4%
Zach Calzada pass complete to Ja'Mori Maclin for 11 yds to the UK 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:24
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+5
71.5%
Dante Dowdell run for 5 yds to the UK 47Similar
Q1 11:45
2ND & 5
OWN 47
+5
71.5%
Zach Calzada pass complete to Hardley Gilmore IV for 5 yds to the UK 42Similar
Q1 10:43
4TH & 10
OWN 42
0
70.8%
Aidan Laros punt for 46 yds , Bryson Hammer returns for no gain to the TOL 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 2INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:3229% → 29%
Q1 10:37
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
71.0%
Chip Trayanum run for no gain to the TOL 12Similar
Q1 10:05
2ND & 10
OWN 12
0
70.9%
Tucker Gleason pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 3TD
8 plays · 29 yds · 3:3072% → 73%
Q1 9:57
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+5
71.5%
Dante Dowdell run for 5 yds to the TOL 24Similar
Q1 9:09
2ND & 5
OPP 24
+6
71.5%
Zach Calzada run for 6 yds to the TOL 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:37
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+1
71.3%
Zach Calzada run for 1 yd to the TOL 17Similar
Q1 8:02
2ND & 9
OPP 17
0
71.3%
Zach Calzada pass incomplete to Hardley Gilmore IVSimilar
Q1 7:58
3RD & 9
OPP 17
+9
71.0%
(08:02) No Huddle-Shotgun Calzada,Zach pass incomplete short middle to Farrier II,Fred thrown to TOL08, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY TOL Pass Interference (Bowers,Nasir) 9 yards from TOL17 to TOL08, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+7
71.3%
Seth McGowan run for 7 yds to the TOL 1Similar
Q1 7:01
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
71.1%
Dante Dowdell run for no gain to the TOL 1Similar
Q1 6:27
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
73.4%
Zach Calzada run for 1 yd for a TD (Jacob Kauwe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · 1 yds · 2:1827% → 26%
Q1 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
72.8%
Chip Trayanum run for 1 yd to the TOL 26Similar
Q1 5:50
2ND & 9
OWN 26
-2
72.9%
Chip Trayanum run for a loss of 2 yards to the TOL 24Similar
Q1 5:04
3RD & 11
OWN 24
-12
73.4%
(05:11) No Huddle-Shotgun Gleason,Tucker pass complete short right to Crosby Jr.,Terrell caught at TOL39, for 18 yards to the TOL42 (Waller,DJ) PENALTY TOL Personal Foul (Rhett,Cole) 12 yards from TOL24 to TOL12. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 4:41
3RD & 23
OWN 12
+14
73.5%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Jacob Petersen for 14 yds to the TOL 26Similar
Q1 4:02
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
73.6%
Emilio Duran punt for 31 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 5INT
3 plays · 7 yds · 1:1274% → 74%
Q1 3:55
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+6
74.0%
Seth McGowan run for 6 yds to the UK 49Similar
Q1 3:20
2ND & 4
OWN 49
+1
74.2%
Seth McGowan run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 2:43
3RD & 3
50
0
73.9%
Zach Calzada pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 6DOWNS
13 plays · 51 yds · 4:2328% → 26%
Q1 2:36
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
72.1%
Chip Trayanum run for 2 yds to the TOL 48Similar
Q1 2:07
2ND & 8
OWN 48
0
72.1%
Tucker Gleason pass incomplete to Chip TrayanumSimilar
Q1 2:00
3RD & 8
OWN 48
+14
72.5%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Junior Vandeross III for 14 yds to the UK 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:31
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
71.9%
Tucker Gleason pass incomplete to Junior Vandeross IIISimilar
Q1 1:24
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+12
71.9%
Chip Trayanum run for 12 yds to the UK 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:35
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+6
71.9%
Chip Trayanum run for 6 yds to the UK 20Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 4
OPP 20
+8
71.9%
Chip Trayanum run for 8 yds to the UK 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:52
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+2
71.9%
Connor Walendzak run for 2 yds to the UK 10Similar
Q2 14:21
2ND & 8
OPP 10
+4
71.8%
Connor Walendzak run for 4 yds to the UK 6Similar
Q2 13:50
3RD & 4
OPP 6
+2
72.6%
Tucker Gleason run for 2 yds to the UK 4Similar
Q2 13:13
4TH & 2
OPP 4
+1
73.9%
Tucker Gleason run for 1 yd to the UK 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 7SF
1 play · -3 yds · 0:0071% → 71%
Q2 13:08
1ST & 10
OWN 3
-3
70.9%
Langston Long SafetySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · -10 yds · 1:2327% → 25%
Q2 12:48
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+7
73.5%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Kenji Christian for 7 yds to the TOL 30Similar
Q2 12:41
2ND & 3
OWN 30
-5
72.9%
PENALTY TOL False Start 5 yards from TOL30 to TOL25. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:23
2ND & 8
OWN 25
0
73.5%
Tucker Gleason pass incomplete to Kenji ChristianSimilar
Q2 11:42
3RD & 8
OWN 25
-12
74.0%
Tucker Gleason sacked by Steven Soles Jr. for a loss of 12 yards to the TOL 13 Tucker Gleason fumbled, recovered by TOL Tucker Gleason , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q2 11:25
4TH & 20
OWN 13
0
74.7%
Emilio Duran punt for 37 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 9FUMBLE
2 plays · 26 yds · 0:3872% → 74%
Q2 11:13
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
72.4%
Zach Calzada run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 10:35
2ND & 7
50
+23
73.9%
Zach Calzada pass complete to Willie Rodriguez for 23 yds Willie Rodriguez fumbled, recovered by TOL Emmanuel McNeil-WarrenSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 10DOWNS
8 plays · 23 yds · 3:0326% → 27%
Q2 10:31
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
74.0%
Tucker Gleason pass incomplete to Terrell Crosby Jr.Similar
Q2 10:23
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+3
74.2%
Chip Trayanum run for 3 yds to the TOL 30Similar
Q2 9:39
3RD & 7
OWN 30
+13
74.3%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Chip Trayanum for 13 yds to the TOL 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:22
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+4
73.0%
Tucker Gleason run for 4 yds to the TOL 47Similar
Q2 8:35
2ND & 6
OWN 47
+3
72.3%
Kenji Christian run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 7:45
3RD & 3
50
+2
72.6%
Chip Trayanum run for 2 yds to the UK 48Similar
Q2 7:28
4TH & 1
OPP 48
-2
73.1%
Chip Trayanum run for a loss of 2 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 11FG
10 plays · 23 yds · 5:1576% → 79%
Q2 7:19
1ST & 10
50
+7
76.1%
Dante Dowdell run for 7 yds to the TOL 43Similar
Q2 6:43
2ND & 3
OPP 43
0
76.4%
Zach Calzada pass incomplete to Kendrick LawSimilar
Q2 6:37
3RD & 3
OPP 43
+3
76.0%
Dante Dowdell run for 3 yds to the TOL 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:56
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+6
76.5%
Seth McGowan run for 6 yds to the TOL 34Similar
Q2 5:19
2ND & 4
OPP 34
+3
76.9%
Seth McGowan run for 3 yds to the TOL 31Similar
Q2 4:44
3RD & 1
OPP 31
+1
76.3%
Zach Calzada run for 1 yd to the TOL 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:03
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
77.1%
Zach Calzada run for no gain to the TOL 30Similar
Q2 3:23
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+3
77.2%
Dante Dowdell run for 3 yds to the TOL 27Similar
Q2 2:43
3RD & 7
OPP 27
0
76.3%
Zach Calzada pass complete to Hardley Gilmore IV for no gain to the TOL 27Similar
Q2 2:04
4TH & 7
OPP 27
+45
79.1%
Jacob Kauwe 45 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 12PUNT
10 plays · 13 yds · 0:5221% → 20%
Q2 1:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
78.8%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Trayvon Rudolph for 4 yds to the TOL 29Similar
Q2 1:55
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
78.2%
Tucker Gleason pass incomplete to Junior Vandeross IIISimilar
Q2 1:49
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+14
78.9%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Junior Vandeross III for 14 yds to the TOL 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:44
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
77.5%
Tucker Gleason pass incomplete to Terrell Crosby Jr.Similar
Q2 1:37
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+3
77.8%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Trayvon Rudolph for 3 yds to the TOL 46Similar
Q2 1:15
3RD & 7
OWN 46
-8
77.7%
Tucker Gleason sacked by Steven Soles Jr. for a loss of 8 yards to the TOL 38 Tucker Gleason fumbled, recovered by TOL Tucker Gleason , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q2 1:07
4TH & 15
OWN 38
0
79.9%
Emilio Duran punt for 38 yds , Ty Bryant returns for no gain to the UK 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:4380% → 78%
Q2 1:01
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
79.8%
Zach Calzada pass incomplete to Hardley Gilmore IVSimilar
Q2 0:46
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+6
79.6%
Zach Calzada pass complete to Fred Farrier II for 6 yds to the UK 30Similar
Q2 0:29
3RD & 4
OWN 30
0
79.4%
Zach Calzada pass incomplete to Seth McGowanSimilar
Q2 0:18
4TH & 4
OWN 30
+2
78.4%
Aidan Laros punt for 54 yds , Bryson Hammer returns for 2 yds to the TOL 18Similar
Q2 0:18
4TH & 4
OWN 30
+2
78.4%
Aidan Laros punt for 54 yds , Bryson Hammer returns for 2 yds to the TOL 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 14END OF HALF
1 play · 1 yds · 0:0020% → 20%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+1
79.6%
Chip Trayanum run for 1 yd to the TOL 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:0822% → 21%
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
78.0%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Junior Vandeross III for 7 yds to the TOL 32Similar
Q3 14:24
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+1
76.7%
Kenji Christian run for 1 yd to the TOL 33Similar
Q3 13:57
3RD & 2
OWN 33
0
77.8%
Tucker Gleason pass incomplete to Junior Vandeross IIISimilar
Q3 13:44
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
78.6%
Emilio Duran punt for 55 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 16PUNT
11 plays · 49 yds · 3:2979% → 80%
Q3 13:32
1ST & 10
OWN 12
-1
79.4%
Zach Calzada pass complete to Dante Dowdell for a loss of 1 yard to the UK 11Similar
Q3 12:56
2ND & 11
OWN 11
+15
79.2%
(13:02) No Huddle-Shotgun Calzada,Zach pass incomplete deep middle to Gilmore IV,Hardley thrown to TOL45 PENALTY TOL Pass Interference (Smith,Avery) 15 yards from UK11 to UK26, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 12:48
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+6
79.7%
Dante Dowdell run for 6 yds to the UK 32Similar
Q3 12:07
2ND & 4
OWN 32
+18
80.1%
Zach Calzada pass complete to Josh Kattus for 18 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:30
1ST & 10
50
+5
81.4%
Seth McGowan run for 5 yds to the TOL 45Similar
Q3 10:56
2ND & 5
OPP 45
+6
81.7%
Seth McGowan run for 6 yds to the TOL 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:20
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
81.8%
Zach Calzada pass incomplete to Hardley Gilmore IVSimilar
Q3 10:17
2ND & 10
OPP 39
0
81.7%
Zach Calzada pass incomplete to J.J. HesterSimilar
Q3 10:09
3RD & 10
OPP 39
0
80.9%
Zach Calzada pass incomplete to Hardley Gilmore IVSimilar
Q3 10:03
4TH & 10
OPP 39
0
79.5%
Aidan Laros punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Bryson Hammer at the TOL 7Similar
Q3 10:03
4TH & 10
OPP 39
0
79.5%
Aidan Laros punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Bryson Hammer at the TOL 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 17PUNT
6 plays · 19 yds · 1:2621% → 20%
Q3 9:47
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+13
79.3%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Eric Holley III for 13 yds to the TOL 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:27
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
78.9%
Tucker Gleason pass incomplete to Jacob PetersenSimilar
Q3 9:27
2ND & 10
OWN 20
-5
79.1%
PENALTY TOL False Start (Gales,Stephen) 5 yards from TOL20 to TOL15. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:16
2ND & 15
OWN 15
+6
79.3%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Chip Trayanum for 6 yds to the TOL 21Similar
Q3 8:35
3RD & 9
OWN 21
0
80.2%
Tucker Gleason pass incomplete to Eric Holley IIISimilar
Q3 8:21
4TH & 4
OWN 26
0
80.4%
Emilio Duran punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Ty Bryant at the UK 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 18PUNT
7 plays · 19 yds · 1:5282% → 82%
Q3 8:14
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
81.7%
Seth McGowan run for 5 yds to the UK 43Similar
Q3 7:33
2ND & 5
OWN 43
0
82.6%
Zach Calzada pass incomplete to Willie RodriguezSimilar
Q3 7:22
3RD & 5
OWN 43
+13
81.7%
Zach Calzada pass complete to Josh Kattus for 13 yds to the TOL 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:56
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+1
83.0%
Dante Dowdell run for 1 yd to the TOL 43Similar
Q3 6:37
2ND & 9
OPP 43
0
82.9%
Zach Calzada pass incomplete to Josh KattusSimilar
Q3 6:32
3RD & 9
OPP 43
0
82.1%
Zach Calzada pass incomplete to J.J. HesterSimilar
Q3 6:22
4TH & 9
OPP 43
0
82.2%
Aidan Laros punt for 43 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 26 yds · 2:1620% → 19%
Q3 6:13
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+20
80.4%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Trayvon Rudolph for 20 yds to the TOL 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
79.1%
Kenji Christian run for 1 yd to the TOL 41Similar
Q3 5:08
2ND & 9
OWN 41
-1
79.6%
Tucker Gleason sacked by Alex Afari Jr. for a loss of 1 yard to the TOL 40Similar
Q3 4:36
3RD & 10
OWN 40
+6
81.1%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Junior Vandeross III for 6 yds to the TOL 46Similar
Q3 3:57
4TH & 4
OWN 46
0
81.3%
Emilio Duran punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Ty Bryant at the UK 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 20TD
13 plays · 76 yds · 6:2085% → 95%
Q3 3:50
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+4
84.5%
Seth McGowan run for 4 yds to the UK 28Similar
Q3 3:14
2ND & 6
OWN 28
+5
84.7%
Seth McGowan run for 5 yds to the UK 33Similar
Q3 2:34
3RD & 1
OWN 33
+4
85.0%
Dante Dowdell run for 4 yds to the UK 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:54
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+12
86.2%
Zach Calzada pass complete to Josh Kattus for 12 yds to the UK 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+16
87.3%
Dante Dowdell run for 16 yds to the TOL 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:42
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+6
87.9%
Seth McGowan run for 6 yds to the TOL 29Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 4
OPP 29
+3
88.0%
Zach Calzada run for 3 yds to the TOL 26Similar
Q4 14:55
3RD & 1
OPP 26
+1
87.2%
Zach Calzada run for 1 yd to the TOL 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:16
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-1
88.5%
Dante Dowdell run for a loss of 1 yard to the TOL 26Similar
Q4 13:36
2ND & 11
OPP 26
+1
88.6%
Zach Calzada run for 1 yd to the TOL 25Similar
Q4 12:56
3RD & 10
OPP 25
+14
88.2%
(13:01) No Huddle-Shotgun Calzada,Zach pass incomplete deep right to Law,Kendrick thrown to TOL00 PENALTY TOL Pass Interference (Bowers,Nasir) 14 yards from TOL25 to TOL11, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:46
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+5
89.1%
Seth McGowan run for 5 yds to the TOL 6Similar
Q4 12:30
2ND & 5
OPP 6
+6
95.3%
Seth McGowan run for 6 yds for a TD (Jacob Kauwe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 21TD
8 plays · 69 yds · 2:337% → 18%
Q4 12:11
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+22
92.6%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Junior Vandeross III for 22 yds to the UK 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:38
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+4
92.8%
Chip Trayanum run for 4 yds to the UK 43Similar
Q4 11:06
2ND & 6
OPP 43
+5
92.7%
Tucker Gleason run for 5 yds to the UK 38Similar
Q4 10:14
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
91.7%
Tucker Gleason pass incomplete to CC EzirimSimilar
Q4 10:04
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+8
93.2%
Chip Trayanum run for 8 yds to the UK 9Similar
Q4 9:38
3RD & 2
OPP 9
+9
83.8%
Tucker Gleason run for 9 yds for a TD (Dylan Cunanan KICK)Similar
Q4 9:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-15
82.1%
Gleason,Tucker pass attempt failed PENALTY TOL Pass Interference (Holley III,Eric) 15 yards from UK03 to UK18. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 22TD
2 plays · 79 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q4 9:22
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+79
95.8%
Dante Dowdell run for 79 yds for a TD (Jacob Kauwe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 23DOWNS
12 plays · 31 yds · 3:545% → 4%
Q4 9:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
94.8%
Tucker Gleason pass incomplete to Chip TrayanumSimilar
Q4 9:09
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
94.9%
Tucker Gleason pass incomplete to Eric Holley IIISimilar
Q4 8:58
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+7
95.0%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Jacob Petersen for 7 yds to the TOL 32Similar
Q4 8:14
4TH & 3
OWN 32
+5
95.1%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Junior Vandeross III for 5 yds to the TOL 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:47
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+8
94.9%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Eric Holley III for 8 yds to the TOL 45Similar
Q4 7:19
2ND & 2
OWN 45
0
94.8%
Tucker Gleason pass incomplete to Eric Holley IIISimilar
Q4 7:05
3RD & 2
OWN 45
+4
95.1%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Terrell Crosby Jr. for 4 yds to the TOL 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:41
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
95.0%
Tucker Gleason pass incomplete to Junior Vandeross IIISimilar
Q4 6:33
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+5
95.0%
Connor Walendzak run for 5 yds to the UK 46Similar
Q4 6:00
3RD & 5
OPP 46
+2
95.4%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Connor Walendzak for 2 yds to the UK 44Similar
Q4 5:24
4TH & 3
OPP 44
0
95.7%
Tucker Gleason pass incomplete to Terrell Crosby Jr.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 24PUNT
6 plays · 2 yds · 0:5297% → 98%
Q4 5:15
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
97.3%
Seth McGowan run for no gain to the UK 44Similar
Q4 4:35
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+2
97.3%
Seth McGowan run for 2 yds to the UK 46Similar
Q4 4:30
3RD & 8
OWN 46
0
97.7%
Zach Calzada pass incomplete to J.J. HesterSimilar
Q4 4:23
4TH & 8
OWN 46
0
97.5%
Aidan Laros punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Bryson Hammer at the TOL 10Similar
Q4 4:23
4TH & 8
OWN 46
0
97.5%
Aidan Laros punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Bryson Hammer at the TOL 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 25TD
8 plays · 95 yds · 2:212% → 15%
Q4 4:16
1ST & 10
OWN 5
-2
97.6%
Chip Trayanum run for a loss of 2 yards to the TOL 3Similar
Q4 3:43
2ND & 12
OWN 3
+23
97.7%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Chip Trayanum for 23 yds to the TOL 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:29
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
97.6%
Tucker Gleason pass incomplete to Chip TrayanumSimilar
Q4 3:16
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+2
97.6%
Tucker Gleason run for 2 yds to the TOL 28Similar
Q4 2:48
3RD & 8
OWN 28
+13
97.7%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Kenji Christian for 13 yds to the TOL 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:12
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+39
97.5%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Javon Brown for 39 yds to the UK 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:55
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+20
85.5%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Junior Vandeross III for 20 yds for a TD (Dylan Cunanan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 26END OF GAME
7 plays · 11 yds · 1:4597% → 98%
Q4 1:45
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+5
97.0%
(01:50) Shotgun Dowdell,Dante rush middle for 7 yards gain to the TOL36 (Poynter,Martez) PENALTY TOL Offside 5 yards from TOL43 to TOL38. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 1:17
1ST & 5
OPP 38
+1
97.5%
Dante Dowdell run for 1 yd to the TOL 37Similar
Q4 1:17
2ND & 4
OPP 37
0
97.5%
Dante Dowdell run for no gain to the TOL 37Similar
Q4 1:12
3RD & 4
OPP 37
+6
97.4%
Seth McGowan run for 6 yds to the TOL 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-1
97.7%
(00:37) Kneel down by Kentucky at TOL32 for loss of 1 yard.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 1:55
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Junior Vandeross III for 20 yds for a TD (Dylan Cunanan KICK)
-11.1
TD · Q4 9:38
Tucker Gleason run for 9 yds for a TD (Dylan Cunanan KICK)
-9.4
TD · Q4 9:22
Dante Dowdell run for 79 yds for a TD (Jacob Kauwe KICK)
+9.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com