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Win probability · UGA
modelUGA aheadMRSH aheadconfidence bandkey playUGA scoreMRSH score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 8:14 · punt for 34 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UGA 45
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 9:22: Dwight Phillips Jr 17 Yd Run (Peyton Woodring Kick) — UGA win probability +0.1 pts (now 99%) (top driver: UGA has the ball).
- TD · Q1 2:21: Gunner Stockton run for 13 yds for a TD (Peyton Woodring KICK) — UGA win probability +0.2 pts (now 99%) (top driver: UGA has the ball).
- TD · Q2 9:07: Gunner Stockton run for 11 yds for a TD (Peyton Woodring KICK) — UGA win probability +0.8 pts (now 99%) (top driver: UGA has the ball).
- TD · Q3 13:13: Gunner Stockton pass complete to Zachariah Branch for 47 yds for a TD (Peyton Woodring KICK) — UGA win probability +0.7 pts (now 100%) (top driver: UGA has the ball).
- TD · Q4 10:27: Jo'Shon Barbie run for 1 yd for a TD (Lorcan Quinn KICK) — MRSH win probability +0.1 pts (now 0%) (top driver: MRSH has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
UGA made the numbers' call on 10 of 10MRSH made the numbers' call on 9 of 11
- Q1 13:39MRSH 4th & 11 at MRSH 24, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 1.6% before the snapGo for it1.5%−0.125% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.7%average punt
- Q1 9:55UGA 4th & 2 at MRSH 31, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call98.0%57% to convertField goal97.9%−0.154% to makePunt97.9%−0.2average punt
- Q1 7:54MRSH 4th & 3 at MRSH 32, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.0% before the snapGo for it2.1%−<0.152% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.1%average punt
- Q1 2:21UGA 4th & 1 at MRSH 13, up 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 97.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call97.4%71% to convertField goal97.2%−0.185% to makePunt96.8%−0.6average punt
- Q2 14:18MRSH 4th & 5 at MRSH 41, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.5% before the snapGo for it2.5%−0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.5%average punt
- Q2 11:49UGA 4th & 9 at UGA 48, up 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.5% before the snapGo for it97.5%−0.132% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call97.5%average punt
- Q2 10:15MRSH 4th & 8 at MRSH 22, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.7% before the snapGo for it2.6%−0.132% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.8%average punt
- Q2 7:00MRSH 4th & 15 at MRSH 15, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.5% before the snapGo for it1.3%−0.316% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.6%average punt
- Q2 5:39UGA 4th & 14 at UGA 26, up 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.5% before the snapGo for it98.2%−0.417% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call98.6%average punt
- Q2 4:04MRSH 4th & 2 at MRSH 31, down 21Close callPunted · 1.6% before the snapGo for it1.6%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.6%−<0.1average punt
- Q2 1:59UGA 4th & 9 at UGA 43, up 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.7% before the snapGo for it98.5%−0.132% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call98.6%average punt
- Q2 1:27MRSH 4th & 1 at MRSH 24, down 21Close callPunted · 1.5% before the snapGo for it1.6%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.5%−0.1average punt
- Q2 0:24UGA 4th & 10 at MRSH 25, up 21Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 98.7% before the snapGo for it98.4%−0.228% to convertField goalTheir call98.7%66% to makePunt98.0%−0.7average punt
- Q3 11:14MRSH 4th & 16 at MRSH 31, down 31Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snapGo for it0.1%−0.215% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.4%average punt
- Q3 9:52UGA 4th & 5 at UGA 32, up 31Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.8% before the snapGo for it99.8%−0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.9%average punt
- Q3 8:14MRSH 4th & 7 at MRSH 21, down 31Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snapGo for it0.2%−0.135% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.3%average punt
- Q3 3:51UGA 4th & 2 at MRSH 2, up 31Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.8%48% to convertField goal99.7%−0.194% to makePunt99.3%−0.6average punt
- Q3 2:41MRSH 4th & 7 at MRSH 38, down 38Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%−<0.137% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 7:24UGA 4th & 7 at UGA 41, up 38Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.9%−0.137% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call100.0%average punt
- Q4 3:48MRSH 4th & 5 at MRSH 44, down 38Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it0.0%−<0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.0%average punt
- Q4 1:13UGA 4th & 5 at UGA 32, up 38Agrees with the numbersPunted · 100.0% before the snapGo for it99.9%−0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call100.0%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UGA made the numbers' call on 6 of 6MRSH made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q1 9:22UGA Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.1%97% to makeGo for two98.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 2:21UGA Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.8%97% to makeGo for two97.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 9:07UGA Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.7%97% to makeGo for two98.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 13:13UGA Touchdown, up 30 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.8%97% to makeGo for two99.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 3:51UGA Touchdown, up 37 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 14:18UGA Touchdown, up 44 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 10:27MRSH Touchdown, down 39 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call0.1%97% to makeGo for two0.1%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartMRSHDrive 1PUNT5 plays · -1 yds · 1:151% → 1%
Q1 13:39
4TH & 11
OWN 24
0
99.1%
Nathan Totten punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Zachariah Branch at the UGA 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 2TD8 plays · 70 yds · 4:1199% → 99%
MRSHDrive 3PUNT5 plays · 7 yds · 1:181% → 1%
UGADrive 4TD11 plays · 72 yds · 5:2899% → 99%
Q1 6:47
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+6
98.7%
Gunner Stockton pass complete to Chauncey Bowens for 6 yds to the UGA 45Similar
Q1 6:11
2ND & 4
OWN 45
+5
98.6%
Gunner Stockton pass complete to Oscar Delp for 5 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:37
3RD & 5
OPP 45
+23
98.5%
Gunner Stockton pass complete to Zachariah Branch for 23 yds to the MRSH 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 5PUNT7 plays · 16 yds · 2:592% → 2%
UGADrive 6PUNT6 plays · 29 yds · 2:1698% → 98%
MRSHDrive 7PUNT4 plays · 2 yds · 1:292% → 2%
Q2 10:15
4TH & 8
OWN 22
0
98.1%
Nathan Totten punt blocked by KJ Bolden blocked by KJ Bolden Totten,Nathan punt 0 yards to the MAR22 blocked by Bolden,KJ recovered by UGA Foster,Terrell at MAR20 Foster,Terrell return 0 yards to the MAR20, End Of Play. , Terrell Foster returns for no gain to the MRSH 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 8TD3 plays · 20 yds · 1:0898% → 99%
MRSHDrive 9PUNT6 plays · -5 yds · 2:021% → 1%
Q2 9:02
3RD & 10
OWN 20
-5
98.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun Del Rio-Wilson,Carlos rush middle for 14 yards gain to the MAR34 (Jones,Kyron) PENALTY MAR Illegal Formation (McDuffie,Tyler) 5 yards from MAR20 to MAR15. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:00
4TH & 15
OWN 15
+14
98.9%
Nathan Totten punt for 59 yds , Zachariah Branch returns for 14 yds to the UGA 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 10PUNT4 plays · -4 yds · 1:2199% → 99%
MRSHDrive 11PUNT4 plays · 8 yds · 1:351% → 1%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 12PUNT5 plays · 13 yds · 2:0599% → 99%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 13PUNT7 plays · 9 yds · 0:321% → 1%
UGADrive 14FG12 plays · 44 yds · 1:0399% → 99%
Q2 1:27
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+12
99.1%
Gunner Stockton pass complete to Cash Jones for 12 yds to the UGA 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:27
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+6
99.1%
Gunner Stockton pass complete to Colbie Young for 6 yds to the UGA 49Similar
Q2 1:05
2ND & 4
OWN 49
+6
99.1%
Gunner Stockton pass complete to Lawson Luckie for 6 yds to the MRSH 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:05
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+10
99.1%
No Huddle-Shotgun Stockton,Gunner pass incomplete deep right to Luckie,Lawson thrown to MAR16 PENALTY MAR Holding (Clark-Glover,Caleb) 10 yards from MAR45 to MAR35, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:24
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+2
99.1%
Gunner Stockton pass complete to Cash Jones for 2 yds to the UGA 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 15Uncategorized2 plays · -1 yds · 0:001% → 1%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 16TD5 plays · 75 yds · 1:4799% → 100%
MRSHDrive 17PUNT7 plays · 6 yds · 1:590% → 0%
Q3 13:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
99.8%
JacQai Long pass complete to Jo'Shon Barbie for 12 yds to the MRSH 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:13
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-5
99.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun Roberts,Antwan rush right for 1 yard gain to the MAR38 (Johnson,Quintavius) PENALTY MAR Illegal Formation (McDuffie,Tyler) 5 yards from MAR37 to MAR32. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 11:14
4TH & 16
OWN 31
0
99.8%
Nathan Totten punt for 41 yds , Zachariah Branch returns for no gain to the UGA 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 18PUNT4 plays · 5 yds · 1:22100% → 100%
MRSHDrive 19PUNT5 plays · 3 yds · 1:380% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 20TD9 plays · 55 yds · 4:23100% → 100%
MRSHDrive 21PUNT6 plays · 13 yds · 1:100% → 0%
UGADrive 22TD8 plays · 80 yds · 3:23100% → 100%
Q3 2:41
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
99.9%
Ryan Puglisi pass complete to Chauncey Bowens for 3 yds to the UGA 44Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+14
99.9%
Ryan Puglisi pass complete to Thomas Blackshear for 14 yds to the MRSH 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:18
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+23
99.9%
Ryan Puglisi pass complete to Elyiss Williams for 23 yds for a TD (Peyton Woodring KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 23TD9 plays · 84 yds · 3:460% → 0%
Q4 14:13
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+4
100.0%
Zion Turner pass complete to De'Andre Tamarez for 4 yds to the MRSH 20Similar
Q4 14:13
2ND & 6
OWN 20
+1
100.0%
Zion Turner pass complete to Xayvion Turner-Bradshaw for 1 yd to the MRSH 21Similar
Q4 14:13
3RD & 5
OWN 21
+34
100.0%
Zion Turner pass complete to Antonio Harmon for 34 yds to the UGA 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:13
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-10
100.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun Turner,Zion pass incomplete short right to Tamarez,De'Andre thrown to UGA49 broken up by Kelly,Dominick PENALTY MAR Holding (Richter,Christian) 10 yards from UGA45 to MAR45. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:13
3RD & 10
OPP 45
+44
100.0%
Zion Turner pass complete to Xayvion Turner-Bradshaw for 44 yds to the UGA 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 24PUNT8 plays · 16 yds · 3:03100% → 100%
MRSHDrive 25PUNT8 plays · 36 yds · 3:360% → 0%
UGADrive 26PUNT8 plays · 18 yds · 2:35100% → 100%
MRSHDrive 27END OF GAME3 plays · 5 yds · 1:130% → 0%
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 9:07
Gunner Stockton run for 11 yds for a TD (Peyton Woodring KICK)
+0.8
TD · Q3 13:13
Gunner Stockton pass complete to Zachariah Branch for 47 yds for a TD (Peyton Woodring KICK)
+0.7
TD · Q1 2:21
Gunner Stockton run for 13 yds for a TD (Peyton Woodring KICK)
+0.2