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AUB

Auburn 38 at Baylor 24

BAY
2025 · Week 1 · Aug 29, 2025 · McLane Stadium
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Win probability · BAY
modelBAY aheadAUB aheadconfidence bandkey playBAY scoreAUB score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · J. Arnold takes a knee
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsPregame prior
+51.5+25.80−25.8−51.5Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 10:29: Damari Alston run for 9 yds for a TD (Alex McPherson KICK) — AUB win probability +7.4 pts (now 60%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 3:21: Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Kobe Prentice for 33 yds for a TD (Connor Hawkins KICK) — BAY win probability +9.1 pts (now 43%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 5:40: Jeremiah Cobb run for 2 yds for a TD (Alex McPherson KICK) — AUB win probability +14.6 pts (now 84%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 0:58: Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Caden Knighten for 4 yds for a TD (Connor Hawkins KICK) — BAY win probability +17.3 pts (now 37%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 0:43: Rhett Armstrong kickoff for 63 yds , Rayshawn Pleasant return for 98 yds for a TD (Alex McPherson KICK) — AUB win probability +20.0 pts (now 83%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BAY made the numbers' call on 7 of 9AUB made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 13:51BAY 4th & 1 at BAY 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 50.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    50.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    50.8%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:36BAY 4th & 10 at AUB 19, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 51.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.5%−0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    51.6%
    77% to make
    Punt
    51.0%−0.6
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:14AUB 4th & 10 at AUB 25, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.0%−0.3
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.3%
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:27BAY 4th & 3 at AUB 3, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 53.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    53.4%
    44% to convert
    Field goal
    53.1%−0.4
    93% to make
    Punt
    51.0%−2.4
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:14BAY 4th & 12 at BAY 33, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.2%−1.3
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.5%
    average punt
  6. Q2 8:43BAY 4th & 3 at BAY 44, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 40.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    40.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    40.2%−0.2
    average punt
  7. Q2 5:45AUB 4th & 3 at BAY 3, up 11
    Close callKicked a field goal · 62.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.3%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    61.5%−0.9
    93% to make
    Punt
    57.0%−5.3
    average punt
  8. Q2 3:21BAY 4th & 8 at AUB 33, down 14
    Close callWent for it · 32.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    32.5%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    32.5%
    49% to make
    Punt
    31.7%−0.9
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:38AUB 4th & 21 at AUB 41, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.1%−1.9
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.0%
    average punt
  10. Q3 11:23AUB 4th & 9 at BAY 49, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.7%−1.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.8%
    average punt
  11. Q3 9:52BAY 4th & 9 at BAY 28, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.2%−2.0
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.2%
    average punt
  12. Q3 0:58BAY 4th & 4 at AUB 4, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 18.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    18.4%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    17.9%−0.5
    93% to make
    Punt
    11.7%−6.7
    average punt
  13. Q4 4:32AUB 4th & 1 at BAY 27, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    98.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    98.6%−0.3
    62% to make
    Punt
    98.1%−0.8
    average punt
  14. Q4 1:17BAY 4th & 1 at AUB 11, down 14
    Close callWent for it · 3.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.6%−0.8
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    4.5%
    87% to make
    Punt
    2.2%−2.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BAY made the numbers' call on 3 of 3AUB made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 0:34AUB Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    50.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    50.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 10:29AUB Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    58.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 3:21BAY Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    39.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    39.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 5:40AUB Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 0:58BAY Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    26.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    26.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 0:43AUB Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 4:32BAY Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    4.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    4.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BAYDrive 1FG
15 plays · 56 yds · 4:0453% → 54%
Q1 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
53.4%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Bryson Washington for a loss of 1 yard to the BAY 24Similar
Q1 14:29
2ND & 11
OWN 24
0
53.4%
Sawyer Robertson pass incomplete to Michael TriggSimilar
Q1 14:29
3RD & 11
OWN 24
-5
53.3%
PENALTY BAY False Start (Price,Coleton) 5 yards from BAY24 to BAY19. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 14:19
3RD & 16
OWN 19
+16
53.4%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Michael Trigg for 16 yds to the BAY 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:51
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+3
53.4%
Bryson Washington run for 3 yds to the BAY 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:20
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-1
53.6%
Sawyer Robertson sacked by Robert Woodyard Jr. for a loss of 1 yard to the BAY 36Similar
Q1 13:01
2ND & 11
OWN 36
+10
53.6%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Kole Wilson for 10 yds to the BAY 46Similar
Q1 12:24
3RD & 1
OWN 46
+18
53.9%
Bryson Washington run for 18 yds to the AUB 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:18
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
54.0%
Sawyer Robertson pass incomplete to Michael TriggSimilar
Q1 12:08
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+17
54.1%
Caden Knighten run for 17 yds to the AUB 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:46
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
54.3%
Caden Knighten run for no gain to the AUB 19Similar
Q1 11:14
2ND & 10
OPP 19
0
54.4%
Caden Knighten run for no gain to the AUB 19Similar
Q1 10:40
3RD & 10
OPP 19
0
54.3%
Sawyer Robertson pass incomplete to Bryson WashingtonSimilar
Q1 10:36
4TH & 10
OPP 19
+36
54.4%
Connor Hawkins 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 1:1546% → 45%
Q1 10:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
54.4%
Damari Alston run for no gain to the AUB 25Similar
Q1 10:01
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
54.5%
Jackson Arnold pass incomplete to Cam ColemanSimilar
Q1 9:38
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
54.8%
Jackson Arnold run for no gain to the AUB 25Similar
Q1 9:14
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
55.3%
Hudson Kaak punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Josh Cameron at the BAY 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 3DOWNS
6 plays · 62 yds · 2:4155% → 56%
Q1 9:08
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
54.7%
Bryson Washington run for no gain to the BAY 35Similar
Q1 8:33
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+57
54.6%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Kole Wilson for 57 yds to the AUB 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
55.6%
Bryson Washington run for 3 yds to the AUB 5Similar
Q1 7:36
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
55.8%
Bryson Washington run for 2 yds to the AUB 3Similar
Q1 6:58
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
0
55.7%
Bryson Washington run for no gain to the AUB 3Similar
Q1 6:27
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
0
55.5%
Sawyer Robertson pass incomplete to Michael TriggSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 4TD
15 plays · 96 yds · 5:4744% → 51%
Q1 6:21
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+4
55.6%
Damari Alston run for 4 yds to the AUB 8Similar
Q1 5:44
2ND & 6
OWN 8
+11
55.8%
Damari Alston run for 11 yds to the AUB 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:02
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+3
55.8%
Jackson Arnold run for 3 yds to the AUB 22Similar
Q1 4:30
2ND & 7
OWN 22
0
55.9%
Jackson Arnold pass incomplete to Cam ColemanSimilar
Q1 4:18
3RD & 7
OWN 22
+9
56.3%
Jackson Arnold run for 9 yds to the AUB 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:51
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+7
55.5%
Jackson Arnold pass complete to Preston Howard for 7 yds to the AUB 38Similar
Q1 3:39
2ND & 3
OWN 38
+4
54.9%
Jeremiah Cobb run for 4 yds to the AUB 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:12
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-5
55.0%
PENALTY AUB False Start (Murphy,Mason) 5 yards from AUB42 to AUB37. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 2:54
1ST & 15
OWN 37
-5
55.9%
PENALTY AUB False Start (Chaplin,Xavier) 5 yards from AUB37 to AUB32. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 2:23
1ST & 20
OWN 32
+5
55.7%
Jeremiah Cobb run for 5 yds to the AUB 37Similar
Q1 1:56
2ND & 15
OWN 37
+26
55.9%
Jackson Arnold pass complete to Malcolm Simmons for 26 yds to the BAY 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:42
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+9
54.3%
Jeremiah Cobb run for 9 yds to the BAY 28Similar
Q1 1:17
2ND & 1
OPP 28
+4
53.6%
Jeremiah Cobb run for 4 yds to the BAY 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:34
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+24
49.5%
Jackson Arnold run for 24 yds for a TD (Alex McPherson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 0:4652% → 50%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
51.9%
Bryson Washington run for 2 yds to the BAY 37Similar
Q2 14:53
2ND & 8
OWN 37
-4
52.2%
Sawyer Robertson sacked for a loss of 4 yards to the BAY 33Similar
Q2 14:21
3RD & 12
OWN 33
0
50.8%
Sawyer Robertson pass incomplete to Bryson WashingtonSimilar
Q2 14:14
4TH & 12
OWN 33
0
50.4%
Palmer Williams punt for 32 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the AUB 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 6TD
7 plays · 65 yds · 3:2949% → 60%
Q2 13:58
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+8
50.9%
Jackson Arnold pass complete to Horatio Fields for 8 yds to the AUB 43Similar
Q2 13:36
2ND & 2
OWN 43
+4
50.1%
Damari Alston run for 4 yds to the AUB 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:59
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+11
49.9%
Jackson Arnold run for 11 yds to the BAY 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:15
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+17
49.1%
Jackson Arnold run for 17 yds to the BAY 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:33
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+6
48.0%
Jr. Eric Singleton run for 6 yds to the BAY 19Similar
Q2 11:02
2ND & 4
OPP 19
+10
47.9%
Damari Alston run for 10 yds to the BAY 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
40.5%
Damari Alston run for 9 yds for a TD (Alex McPherson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 7DOWNS
7 plays · 19 yds · 1:3543% → 42%
Q2 10:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
42.5%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Ashtyn Hawkins for 12 yds to the BAY 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
43.0%
Caden Knighten run for 4 yds to the BAY 41Similar
Q2 9:20
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+3
43.0%
Caden Knighten run for 3 yds to the BAY 44Similar
Q2 8:50
3RD & 3
OWN 44
0
42.5%
Sawyer Robertson pass incomplete to Louis Brown IVSimilar
Q2 8:43
4TH & 3
OWN 44
0
41.7%
Sawyer Robertson pass incomplete to Michael TriggSimilar
Q2 8:43
4TH & 3
OWN 44
0
41.7%
Baylor Penalty, Defensive Holding (Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 8FG
7 plays · 41 yds · 2:5060% → 67%
Q2 8:35
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+7
39.8%
Jeremiah Cobb run for 7 yds to the BAY 37Similar
Q2 8:03
2ND & 3
OPP 37
+4
39.6%
Jr. Eric Singleton run for 4 yds to the BAY 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:44
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+23
38.6%
Jackson Arnold pass complete to Cam Coleman for 23 yds to the BAY 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
38.1%
Jackson Arnold pass incomplete to Cam ColemanSimilar
Q2 7:05
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+1
38.0%
Jeremiah Cobb run for 1 yd to the BAY 9Similar
Q2 6:15
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
+6
38.0%
Jackson Arnold pass complete to Brandon Frazier for 6 yds to the BAY 3Similar
Q2 5:45
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+21
33.5%
Alex McPherson 21 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 9TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 2:1133% → 43%
Q2 5:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
33.4%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Kole Wilson for 16 yds to the BAY 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:12
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+12
34.8%
Bryson Washington run for 12 yds to the AUB 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:48
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+8
35.0%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Kole Wilson for 8 yds to the AUB 39Similar
Q2 4:32
2ND & 2
OPP 39
+4
34.7%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Kole Wilson for 4 yds to the AUB 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:08
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
35.0%
Sawyer Robertson pass incomplete to Michael TriggSimilar
Q2 4:01
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+2
34.8%
Bryson Washington run for 2 yds to the AUB 33Similar
Q2 3:28
3RD & 8
OPP 33
0
33.8%
Sawyer Robertson pass incomplete to Ashtyn HawkinsSimilar
Q2 3:21
4TH & 8
OPP 33
+33
42.9%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Kobe Prentice for 33 yds for a TD (Connor Hawkins KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 10PUNT
14 plays · 16 yds · 2:2860% → 61%
Q2 3:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
40.0%
Jackson Arnold pass complete to Brandon Frazier for 12 yds to the AUB 37Similar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+5
37.4%
Damari Alston run for 5 yds to the AUB 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+1
37.0%
Jackson Arnold run for 1 yd to the AUB 40Similar
Q2 1:53
2ND & 9
OWN 40
+3
37.1%
Jackson Arnold run for 13 yds to the BAY 47 Auburn Penalty, Offensive Holding (Perry Thompson) to the AUB 43Similar
Q2 1:41
2ND & 6
OWN 43
+5
36.6%
Jackson Arnold run for 5 yds to the AUB 48Similar
Q2 1:35
3RD & 1
OWN 48
+4
36.5%
Damari Alston run for 4 yds to the BAY 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:01
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-14
35.3%
Jackson Arnold sacked by Kendrick Simpkins for a loss of 14 yards to the AUB 38 Jackson Arnold fumbled, recovered by AUB Jeremiah Cobb , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q2 0:53
2ND & 24
OWN 38
0
38.2%
Jackson Arnold pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:47
3RD & 24
OWN 38
+3
38.6%
Damari Alston run for 3 yds to the AUB 41Similar
Q2 0:38
4TH & 21
OWN 41
0
39.5%
Hudson Kaak punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Josh Cameron at the BAY 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 11END OF HALF
9 plays · 35 yds · 0:3342% → 45%
Q2 0:33
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
41.6%
Sawyer Robertson pass incomplete to Louis Brown IVSimilar
Q2 0:27
2ND & 10
OWN 35
-8
41.2%
Sawyer Robertson sacked by Keyron Crawford for a loss of 8 yards to the BAY 27Similar
Q2 0:21
3RD & 18
OWN 27
+15
40.1%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Michael Trigg for 15 yds to the BAY 42Similar
Q2 0:14
4TH & 3
OWN 42
+10
40.7%
(00:20) No Huddle-Shotgun Robertson,Sawyer pass incomplete short left to Brown IV,Louis thrown to AUB42 PENALTY AUB Holding (Pleasant,Rayshawn) 10 yards from BAY42 to AUB48, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:08
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
43.7%
Sawyer Robertson pass incomplete to Kole WilsonSimilar
Q2 0:04
2ND & 10
OPP 48
0
46.4%
Sawyer Robertson pass incomplete to Michael TriggSimilar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 10
OPP 48
+18
44.8%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Louis Brown IV for 18 yds to the AUB 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 12PUNT
10 plays · 26 yds · 3:3161% → 63%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
38.9%
Damari Alston run for 4 yds to the AUB 29Similar
Q3 14:21
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+9
38.0%
Damari Alston run for 9 yds to the AUB 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:47
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
36.7%
Damari Alston run for 3 yds to the AUB 41Similar
Q3 12:58
2ND & 7
OWN 41
+9
36.1%
Jackson Arnold run for 9 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:25
1ST & 10
50
+6
35.2%
Jeremiah Cobb run for 6 yds to the BAY 44Similar
Q3 11:48
2ND & 4
OPP 44
0
34.7%
Jackson Arnold pass incomplete to Malcolm SimmonsSimilar
Q3 11:40
3RD & 4
OPP 44
0
35.2%
Jackson Arnold pass incomplete to Jr. Eric SingletonSimilar
Q3 11:31
4TH & 4
OPP 44
-5
36.5%
(11:35) Kaak,Hudson punt 39 yards to the BAY05 PENALTY AUB Illegal Formation 5 yards from BAY44 to BAY49. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 11:23
4TH & 9
OPP 49
0
37.3%
Hudson Kaak punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Josh Cameron at the BAY 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 18 yds · 1:1239% → 37%
Q3 11:04
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+17
38.7%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Michael Trigg for 17 yds to the BAY 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:34
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+1
39.2%
Bryson Washington run for 1 yd to the BAY 28Similar
Q3 10:06
2ND & 9
OWN 28
0
39.0%
Sawyer Robertson pass incomplete to Kole WilsonSimilar
Q3 10:01
3RD & 9
OWN 28
0
37.3%
Sawyer Robertson pass incomplete to Kole WilsonSimilar
Q3 9:52
4TH & 9
OWN 28
0
36.6%
Palmer Williams punt for 43 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the AUB 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 14TD
9 plays · 71 yds · 4:0364% → 84%
Q3 9:43
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+9
36.4%
Jeremiah Cobb run for 9 yds to the AUB 38Similar
Q3 9:16
2ND & 1
OWN 38
+2
34.3%
Jeremiah Cobb run for 2 yds to the AUB 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:26
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+9
33.8%
Jackson Arnold pass complete to Jr. Eric Singleton for 9 yds to the AUB 49Similar
Q3 8:00
2ND & 1
OWN 49
+21
32.2%
Jackson Arnold run for 21 yds to the BAY 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:31
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+6
31.4%
Jackson Arnold pass complete to Jr. Eric Singleton for 6 yds to the BAY 24Similar
Q3 7:09
2ND & 4
OPP 24
+10
31.1%
Damari Alston run for 10 yds to the BAY 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:52
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+5
30.9%
Jackson Arnold pass complete to Jr. Eric Singleton for 5 yds to the BAY 9Similar
Q3 6:17
2ND & 5
OPP 9
+7
30.6%
Jeremiah Cobb run for 7 yds to the BAY 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
16.0%
Jeremiah Cobb run for 2 yds for a TD (Alex McPherson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 15TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 4:2921% → 37%
Q3 5:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
20.7%
Bryson Washington run for 1 yd to the BAY 26Similar
Q3 4:54
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+20
19.5%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Michael Trigg for 20 yds to the BAY 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:35
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-10
21.6%
(04:41) No Huddle-Shotgun Robertson,Sawyer pass complete short right to Cameron,Josh caught at AUB45, for 11 yards to the AUB43 (Crawford,Jay), out of bounds PENALTY BAY Holding (Fugar,Sidney) 10 yards from BAY46 to BAY36. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:11
1ST & 20
OWN 36
0
19.1%
Sawyer Robertson pass incomplete to Josh CameronSimilar
Q3 3:52
2ND & 20
OWN 36
+36
18.8%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Ashtyn Hawkins for 36 yds to the AUB 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:20
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-10
22.2%
(03:29) No Huddle-Shotgun Robertson,Sawyer pass incomplete deep right to Trigg,Michael thrown to AUB01 PENALTY BAY Holding (Knighten,Caden) 10 yards from AUB28 to AUB38. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:05
1ST & 20
OPP 38
+13
20.8%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Ashtyn Hawkins for 13 yds to the AUB 25Similar
Q3 2:33
2ND & 7
OPP 25
+5
21.7%
Caden Knighten run for 5 yds to the AUB 20Similar
Q3 1:59
3RD & 2
OPP 20
+11
20.2%
(02:02) No Huddle-Shotgun Robertson,Sawyer pass incomplete short left to Hawkins,Ashtyn thrown to AUB09, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY AUB Pass Interference (Lee,Kayin) 11 yard from AUB20 to AUB09, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 1:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
20.7%
Sawyer Robertson pass incomplete to Josh CameronSimilar
Q3 1:31
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+5
20.5%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Kobe Prentice for 5 yds to the AUB 4Similar
Q3 1:05
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
19.6%
Sawyer Robertson pass incomplete to Michael TriggSimilar
Q3 0:58
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
36.9%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Caden Knighten for 4 yds for a TD (Connor Hawkins KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 16TD
11 plays · 79 yds · 3:435% → 5%
Q3 0:31
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
5.3%
Sawyer Robertson pass incomplete to Kole WilsonSimilar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+27
4.9%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Josh Cameron for 27 yds to the BAY 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-10
5.1%
Baylor Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the BAY 40Similar
Q4 14:23
1ST & 18
OWN 40
0
4.8%
Sawyer Robertson pass incomplete to Michael TriggSimilar
Q4 14:09
2ND & 18
OWN 40
+16
4.1%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Michael Trigg for 16 yds to the AUB 44Similar
Q4 13:24
3RD & 2
OPP 44
+22
4.2%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Kole Wilson for 22 yds to the AUB 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:05
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+10
4.4%
(13:12) No Huddle-Shotgun Robertson,Sawyer pass incomplete deep left to Hawkins,Ashtyn thrown to AUB00 PENALTY AUB Holding (Crawford,Jay) 10 yards from AUB22 to AUB12, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:58
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+2
4.5%
Bryson Washington run for 2 yds to the AUB 10Similar
Q4 12:20
2ND & 8
OPP 10
+6
4.3%
Bryson Washington run for 6 yds to the AUB 4Similar
Q4 11:48
3RD & 2
OPP 4
+4
4.6%
Michael Trigg 4 Yd pass from Sawyer Robertson (Connor Hawkins Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 17TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 7:0997% → 96%
Q4 11:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
2.7%
Damari Alston run for 2 yds to the AUB 27Similar
Q4 10:54
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
2.4%
Jackson Arnold pass complete to Jeremiah Cobb for no gain to the AUB 27Similar
Q4 10:21
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+9
2.3%
Jackson Arnold pass complete to Horatio Fields for 9 yds to the AUB 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:53
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
2.1%
Jeremiah Cobb run for 6 yds to the AUB 42Similar
Q4 9:18
2ND & 4
OWN 42
+1
1.9%
Jeremiah Cobb run for 1 yd to the AUB 43Similar
Q4 8:42
3RD & 3
OWN 43
+10
1.9%
(08:41) No Huddle-Shotgun Arnold,Jackson rush left for 0 yards to the AUB43 (Thomas,Keaton) PENALTY BAY Holding (Bobby,Devyn) 10 yards from AUB43 to BAY47, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 8:13
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+3
1.7%
Durell Robinson run for 3 yds to the BAY 44Similar
Q4 7:39
2ND & 7
OPP 44
+4
1.6%
Jackson Arnold run for 4 yds to the BAY 40Similar
Q4 6:55
3RD & 3
OPP 40
+4
1.5%
Jackson Arnold run for 4 yds to the BAY 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:17
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+3
1.3%
Jeremiah Cobb run for 3 yds to the BAY 33Similar
Q4 5:41
2ND & 7
OPP 33
+4
1.1%
Jeremiah Cobb run for 4 yds to the BAY 29Similar
Q4 4:57
3RD & 3
OPP 29
+2
1.1%
Damari Alston run for 2 yds to the BAY 27Similar
Q4 4:32
4TH & 1
OPP 27
+27
3.6%
Jackson Arnold 27 Yd Run (Alex McPherson Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 18DOWNS
12 plays · 64 yds · 3:084% → 3%
Q4 4:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
4.1%
Sawyer Robertson pass incomplete to Ashtyn HawkinsSimilar
Q4 4:14
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
4.0%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Kole Wilson for 6 yds to the BAY 31Similar
Q4 3:50
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+9
3.9%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Ashtyn Hawkins for 9 yds to the BAY 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:07
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+11
3.7%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Kole Wilson for 11 yds to the AUB 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:50
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+12
3.9%
(02:55) No Huddle-Shotgun Robertson,Sawyer pass incomplete short middle to Trigg,Michael thrown to AUB35, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY AUB Pass Interference (Robinson,Jahquez) 12 yards from AUB49 to AUB37, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 2:43
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-10
4.0%
(02:50) No Huddle-Shotgun Robertson,Sawyer pass incomplete short left to Washington,Bryson thrown to AUB30 PENALTY BAY Holding (Aigbedion,Omar) 10 yards from AUB37 to AUB47. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 2:33
1ST & 20
OPP 47
+27
3.8%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Josh Cameron for 27 yds to the AUB 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:19
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-6
4.5%
Sawyer Robertson sacked by Keldric Faulk for a loss of 6 yards to the AUB 26Similar
Q4 1:52
2ND & 16
OPP 26
+3
3.6%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Bryson Washington for 3 yds to the AUB 23Similar
Q4 1:40
3RD & 13
OPP 23
+12
3.3%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Michael Trigg for 12 yds to the AUB 11Similar
Q4 1:17
4TH & 1
OPP 11
0
3.4%
Sawyer Robertson pass incomplete to Michael TriggSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 19END OF GAME
7 plays · 10 yds · 1:1098% → 99%
Q4 1:10
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+4
1.8%
Damari Alston run for 4 yds to the AUB 15Similar
Q4 1:04
2ND & 6
OWN 15
+4
1.7%
Jeremiah Cobb run for 4 yds to the AUB 19Similar
Q4 0:58
3RD & 2
OWN 19
+3
1.7%
Jackson Arnold run for 3 yds to the AUB 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-1
1.5%
J. Arnold takes a kneeSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-1
1.5%
J. Arnold takes a kneeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 0:43
Rhett Armstrong kickoff for 63 yds , Rayshawn Pleasant return for 98 yds for a TD (Alex McPherson KICK)
-20
TD · Q3 0:58
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Caden Knighten for 4 yds for a TD (Connor Hawkins KICK)
+17.3
TD · Q3 5:40
Jeremiah Cobb run for 2 yds for a TD (Alex McPherson KICK)
-14.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com