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ALA

Alabama 17 at Florida State 31

FSU
2025 · Week 1 · Aug 30, 2025 · Doak Campbell Stadium
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Win probability · FSU
modelFSU aheadALA aheadconfidence bandkey playFSU scoreALA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 14:16 · Mac Chiumento punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Jaylen Mbakwe at the ALA 37
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+34.5+17.30−17.3−34.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 132Pregame prior−9.9Home team on offense+21.7Garbage-time factor+10.9Score differential+10.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+3.7Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+1.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 9:13: Micahi Danzy run for 32 yds for a TD (Jake Weinberg KICK) — FSU win probability +6.9 pts (now 38%) (top driver: FSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 9:45: Caziah Holmes run for 4 yds for a TD (Jake Weinberg KICK) — FSU win probability +19.9 pts (now 80%) (top driver: FSU has the ball).
  3. FG · Q3 5:59: Conor Talty 40 yd FG GOOD — ALA win probability +6.6 pts (now 26%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 11:00: Ty Simpson pass complete to Rico Scott for 6 yds for a TD (Conor Talty KICK) — ALA win probability +19.1 pts (now 30%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 7:17: Gavin Sawchuk run for 14 yds for a TD (Jake Weinberg KICK) — FSU win probability +7.2 pts (now 96%) (top driver: FSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
FSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 6ALA made the numbers' call on 8 of 10
  1. Q1 11:42ALA 4th & 1 at FSU 48, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 78.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    78.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    78.3%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q2 13:12ALA 4th & 19 at FSU 35, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 71.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.7%−0.7
    11% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    71.4%
    45% to make
    Punt
    71.0%−0.3
    average punt
  3. Q2 8:23ALA 4th & 8 at ALA 27, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.8%−1.0
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.7%
    average punt
  4. Q2 3:44FSU 4th & 5 at ALA 27, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 46.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.5%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    45.6%
    62% to make
    Punt
    41.2%−4.3
    average punt
  5. Q2 1:36ALA 4th & 4 at ALA 46, down 10
    Close callPunted · 48.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.0%−0.5
    average punt
  6. Q3 12:19FSU 4th & 6 at FSU 31, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.2%−2.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.3%
    average punt
  7. Q3 10:22ALA 4th & 5 at FSU 36, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 39.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    40.2%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    38.8%−1.4
    42% to make
    Punt
    38.2%−2.0
    average punt
  8. Q3 5:59ALA 4th & 17 at FSU 22, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 16.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.9%−3.9
    13% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    15.7%
    72% to make
    Punt
    5.7%−10.0
    average punt
  9. Q3 3:16FSU 4th & 4 at ALA 43, up 14
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.6 ptsPunted · 82.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    81.0%−2.8
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    82.2%−1.6
    average punt
  10. Q3 1:56ALA 4th & 11 at ALA 19, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.1%−1.7
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.8%
    average punt
  11. Q3 0:55ALA 4th & 7 at FSU 28, down 14
    Close callWent for it · 18.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    17.5%−0.2
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    17.8%
    60% to make
    Punt
    10.1%−7.7
    average punt
  12. Q4 14:16FSU 4th & 17 at FSU 21, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.7%−4.4
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.1%
    average punt
  13. Q4 9:09FSU 4th & 1 at FSU 34, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 81.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    82.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    80.3%−2.5
    average punt
  14. Q4 6:28ALA 4th & 6 at ALA 29, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 7.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.1%
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    5.6%−0.5
    average punt
  15. Q4 5:39ALA 4th & 10 at ALA 42, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 6.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.5%
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    5.3%−0.2
    average punt
  16. Q4 2:00FSU 4th & 1 at ALA 31, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 97.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    97.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    97.4%−0.5
    54% to make
    Punt
    97.0%−1.0
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
FSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4ALA made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 6:10ALA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 3:04FSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    26.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    26.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 9:13FSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    37.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    37.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 9:45FSU Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 11:00ALA Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    19.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    19.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 7:17FSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.3%−0.3
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.6%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ALADrive 1TD
19 plays · 75 yds · 8:4384% → 83%
Q1 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
15.8%
Richard Young run for 6 yds to the ALA 31Similar
Q1 14:20
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+12
16.1%
Ty Simpson pass complete to Germie Bernard for 12 yds to the ALA 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:42
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
16.3%
Richard Young run for 3 yds to the ALA 46Similar
Q1 13:17
2ND & 7
OWN 46
+5
16.5%
Ty Simpson run for 5 yds to the FSU 49Similar
Q1 12:36
3RD & 2
OPP 49
-5
16.8%
Alabama Penalty, Offensive Offside (Wilkin Formby) to the ALA 46Similar
Q1 12:11
3RD & 7
OWN 46
+6
17.0%
Ty Simpson run for 6 yds to the FSU 48Similar
Q1 11:42
4TH & 1
OPP 48
+1
17.3%
Richard Young run for 1 yd to the FSU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:59
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+7
17.4%
Daniel Hill run for 7 yds to the FSU 40Similar
Q1 10:18
2ND & 3
OPP 40
-2
17.7%
Daniel Hill run for a loss of 2 yards to the FSU 42Similar
Q1 9:40
3RD & 5
OPP 42
+6
18.1%
Richard Young run for 6 yds to the FSU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:58
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+13
18.3%
Kevin Riley run for 13 yds to the FSU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:20
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+4
18.4%
Kevin Riley run for 4 yds to the FSU 19Similar
Q1 7:51
2ND & 6
OPP 19
0
18.6%
Ty Simpson pass incomplete to Germie BernardSimilar
Q1 7:44
3RD & 6
OPP 19
+6
18.9%
Ty Simpson run for 6 yds to the FSU 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:11
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+11
19.0%
Ty Simpson pass complete to Ryan Williams for 11 yds to the FSU 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
19.1%
Richard Young run for no gain to the FSU 2Similar
Q1 6:10
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
17.5%
Ty Simpson pass complete to Josh Cuevas for 2 yds for a TD (Conor Talty KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 2TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 2:5418% → 24%
Q1 5:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
18.3%
Roydell Williams run for 2 yds to the FSU 27Similar
Q1 5:35
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+3
18.5%
Tommy Castellanos pass complete to Duce Robinson for 3 yds to the FSU 30Similar
Q1 5:16
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+10
18.4%
Alabama Penalty, Defensive Holding (10 Yards) to the FSU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:04
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+12
19.0%
Tommy Castellanos run for 12 yds to the ALA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:32
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-10
19.5%
Florida State Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the FSU 42Similar
Q1 4:15
1ST & 20
OWN 42
+5
18.9%
Gavin Sawchuk run for 5 yds to the FSU 47Similar
Q1 3:55
2ND & 15
OWN 47
+4
19.1%
Tommy Castellanos pass complete to Randy Pittman Jr. for 4 yds to the ALA 49Similar
Q1 3:18
3RD & 11
OPP 49
+40
19.9%
Tommy Castellanos pass complete to Squirrel White for 40 yds to the ALA 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
24.2%
Tommy Castellanos run for 9 yds for a TD (Jake Weinberg KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 3MISSED FG
11 plays · 40 yds · 4:3978% → 75%
Q1 2:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
22.4%
Richard Young run for no gain to the ALA 25Similar
Q1 2:20
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+29
22.4%
Ty Simpson pass complete to Germie Bernard for 29 yds to the FSU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+5
21.5%
Ty Simpson pass complete to Ryan Williams for 5 yds to the FSU 41Similar
Q1 1:20
2ND & 5
OPP 41
+3
21.8%
Richard Young run for 3 yds to the FSU 38Similar
Q1 0:31
3RD & 2
OPP 38
+12
22.3%
Ty Simpson pass complete to Germie Bernard for 12 yds to the FSU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:01
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+6
22.1%
Ty Simpson pass complete to Isaiah Horton for 6 yds to the FSU 20Similar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 4
OPP 20
-4
22.2%
Ty Simpson pass complete to Germie Bernard for a loss of 4 yards to the FSU 24Similar
Q2 14:25
3RD & 8
OPP 24
-5
22.8%
Alabama Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the FSU 29Similar
Q2 13:57
3RD & 13
OPP 29
-6
23.7%
Ty Simpson sacked by Deamontae Diggs for a loss of 6 yards to the FSU 35Similar
Q2 13:12
4TH & 19
OPP 35
+53
25.1%
Conor Talty 53 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 4TD
8 plays · 65 yds · 3:4726% → 38%
Q2 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
26.3%
Tommy Castellanos pass complete to Gavin Sawchuk for 3 yds to the FSU 38Similar
Q2 12:23
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+2
27.4%
Tommy Castellanos pass complete to Jaylin Lucas for 2 yds to the FSU 40Similar
Q2 11:47
3RD & 5
OWN 40
+14
27.6%
Tommy Castellanos pass complete to Randy Pittman Jr. for 14 yds to the ALA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:32
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+1
28.8%
Roydell Williams run for 1 yd to the ALA 45Similar
Q2 11:03
2ND & 9
OPP 45
+5
29.1%
Tommy Castellanos run for 5 yds to the ALA 40Similar
Q2 10:23
3RD & 4
OPP 40
+5
29.7%
Tommy Castellanos run for 5 yds to the ALA 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:46
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+3
31.1%
Tommy Castellanos run for 3 yds to the ALA 32Similar
Q2 9:13
2ND & 7
OPP 32
+32
37.9%
Micahi Danzy run for 32 yds for a TD (Jake Weinberg KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:4564% → 62%
Q2 9:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
36.5%
Ty Simpson pass incomplete to Josh CuevasSimilar
Q2 8:52
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
36.9%
Kevin Riley run for 2 yds to the ALA 27Similar
Q2 8:37
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
37.7%
Ty Simpson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:23
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
38.5%
Blake Doud punt for 52 yds, downed at the FSU 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 6FG
10 plays · 52 yds · 4:2138% → 45%
Q2 8:05
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+15
37.9%
Tommy Castellanos pass complete to Duce Robinson for 15 yds to the FSU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:39
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
39.3%
Ousmane Kromah run for no gain to the FSU 36Similar
Q2 7:05
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+14
39.7%
Ousmane Kromah run for 14 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:27
1ST & 10
50
+3
41.8%
Ousmane Kromah run for 3 yds to the ALA 47Similar
Q2 5:47
2ND & 7
OPP 47
+14
42.7%
Tommy Castellanos run for 14 yds to the ALA 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:12
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+2
44.2%
Roydell Williams run for 2 yds to the ALA 31Similar
Q2 4:28
2ND & 8
OPP 31
+4
45.3%
Tommy Castellanos run for 4 yds to the ALA 27Similar
Q2 3:50
3RD & 5
OPP 27
0
45.2%
Tommy Castellanos pass incomplete to Duce RobinsonSimilar
Q2 3:44
4TH & 5
OPP 27
+45
45.4%
Jake Weinberg 45 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 7PUNT
9 plays · 21 yds · 1:5752% → 50%
Q2 3:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
47.8%
Richard Young run for 6 yds to the ALA 31Similar
Q2 3:13
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+1
47.3%
Richard Young run for 1 yd to the ALA 32Similar
Q2 2:25
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+8
49.5%
Ty Simpson pass complete to Ryan Williams for 8 yds to the ALA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:59
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+6
48.4%
Ty Simpson pass complete to Richard Young for 6 yds to the ALA 46Similar
Q2 1:52
2ND & 4
OWN 46
0
47.2%
Ty Simpson pass incomplete to Germie BernardSimilar
Q2 1:44
3RD & 4
OWN 46
0
47.9%
Ty Simpson run for no gain to the ALA 46Similar
Q2 1:36
4TH & 4
OWN 46
0
50.1%
Blake Doud punt for 54 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 8END OF HALF
5 plays · 15 yds · 1:1149% → 51%
Q2 1:26
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
48.8%
Tommy Castellanos run for 4 yds to the FSU 24Similar
Q2 1:17
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+4
49.0%
Jaylin Lucas run for 4 yds to the FSU 28Similar
Q2 0:36
3RD & 2
OWN 28
+5
50.1%
Jaylin Lucas run for 5 yds to the FSU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
51.1%
Jaylin Lucas run for 2 yds to the FSU 35Similar
Q2 0:15
2ND & 8
OWN 35
0
50.7%
Roydell Williams run for no gain to the FSU 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 9PUNT
8 plays · 16 yds · 2:2551% → 54%
Q3 14:44
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+7
51.4%
Ousmane Kromah run for 7 yds to the FSU 22Similar
Q3 14:19
2ND & 3
OWN 22
+5
52.4%
Ousmane Kromah run for 5 yds to the FSU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:37
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+2
53.5%
Tommy Castellanos run for 2 yds to the FSU 29Similar
Q3 13:09
2ND & 8
OWN 29
0
55.0%
Tommy Castellanos pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:09
3RD & 8
OWN 29
-5
53.7%
Florida State Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the FSU 24Similar
Q3 12:35
3RD & 13
OWN 24
+7
53.9%
Tommy Castellanos pass complete to Ousmane Kromah for 7 yds to the FSU 31Similar
Q3 12:19
4TH & 6
OWN 31
0
53.9%
Mac Chiumento punt for 40 yds, downed at the ALA 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 10DOWNS
6 plays · 39 yds · 1:4945% → 43%
Q3 12:11
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
55.0%
Ty Simpson pass incomplete to Rico ScottSimilar
Q3 12:03
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+30
55.7%
Ty Simpson pass complete to Germie Bernard for 30 yds to the FSU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:24
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+2
53.7%
Ty Simpson pass complete to Josh Cuevas for 2 yds to the FSU 39Similar
Q3 11:24
2ND & 8
OPP 39
+3
53.7%
Ty Simpson pass complete to Ryan Williams for 3 yds to the FSU 36Similar
Q3 10:31
3RD & 5
OPP 36
0
55.3%
Ty Simpson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:22
4TH & 5
OPP 36
+4
57.0%
Ty Simpson pass complete to Kevin Riley for 4 yds to the FSU 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 11TD
2 plays · 68 yds · 0:1560% → 80%
Q3 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+64
59.9%
Tommy Castellanos pass complete to Jaylin Lucas for 64 yds to the ALA 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
79.8%
Caziah Holmes run for 4 yds for a TD (Jake Weinberg KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 12FG
16 plays · 53 yds · 3:3225% → 26%
Q3 9:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
75.2%
Daniel Hill run for 4 yds to the ALA 29Similar
Q3 9:18
2ND & 6
OWN 29
-10
74.8%
Alabama Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the ALA 19Similar
Q3 8:59
2ND & 16
OWN 19
+37
76.6%
Ty Simpson pass complete to Germie Bernard for 37 yds to the FSU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:25
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
74.6%
Ty Simpson pass incomplete to Ryan WilliamsSimilar
Q3 8:14
2ND & 10
OPP 44
-1
75.6%
Dre Washington run for a loss of 1 yard to the FSU 45Similar
Q3 7:45
3RD & 11
OPP 45
+18
76.9%
Ty Simpson pass complete to Germie Bernard for 18 yds to the FSU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:21
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+2
76.3%
Dre Washington run for 2 yds to the FSU 25Similar
Q3 6:59
2ND & 8
OPP 25
0
76.8%
Ty Simpson pass incomplete to Rico ScottSimilar
Q3 6:54
3RD & 8
OPP 25
0
79.1%
Ty Simpson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:49
4TH & 8
OPP 25
+10
79.6%
Florida State Penalty, Defensive Holding (10 Yards) to the FSU 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:45
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
77.1%
Ty Simpson pass incomplete to Ryan WilliamsSimilar
Q3 6:40
2ND & 10
OPP 15
0
77.2%
Ty Simpson pass incomplete to Josh CuevasSimilar
Q3 6:40
3RD & 10
OPP 15
-5
79.4%
Alabama Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the FSU 20Similar
Q3 6:07
3RD & 15
OPP 20
+13
81.1%
Ty Simpson sacked by Daniel Lyons for a loss of 2 yards to the FSU 22 Ty Simpson fumbled, forced by Daniel Lyons, recovered by ALA Parker Brailsford , return for 0 yards , return for 13 yds to the FSU 22Similar
Q3 5:59
4TH & 17
OPP 22
+40
74.5%
Conor Talty 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 13PUNT
8 plays · 32 yds · 2:3378% → 82%
Q3 5:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
77.9%
Gavin Sawchuk run for 5 yds to the FSU 30Similar
Q3 5:19
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
78.6%
Tommy Castellanos pass incomplete to Duce RobinsonSimilar
Q3 5:00
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+21
78.7%
Tommy Castellanos run for 6 yds to the ALA 36 for a 1ST down Alabama Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the ALA 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:29
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+5
81.7%
Roydell Williams run for 5 yds to the ALA 44Similar
Q3 4:00
2ND & 5
OPP 44
+1
82.3%
Jaylin Lucas run for 1 yd to the ALA 43Similar
Q3 3:24
3RD & 4
OPP 43
0
82.3%
Tommy Castellanos pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:16
4TH & 4
OPP 43
0
81.5%
Mac Chiumento punt for 43 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 14FUMBLE
5 plays · -1 yds · 1:0721% → 16%
Q3 3:03
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-7
79.3%
Ty Simpson sacked by Stefon Thompson for a loss of 7 yards to the ALA 13Similar
Q3 2:51
2ND & 17
OWN 13
0
80.0%
Ty Simpson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:32
3RD & 17
OWN 13
+6
83.1%
Ty Simpson run for 6 yds to the ALA 19Similar
Q3 1:56
4TH & 11
OWN 19
+3
83.8%
Blake Doud punt for 38 yds , Jaylin Lucas returns for 3 yds to the FSU 46 Jaylin Lucas fumbled, recovered by ALA Cam CalhounSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 15DOWNS
5 plays · 18 yds · 0:5319% → 16%
Q3 1:48
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+15
81.0%
Florida State Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the FSU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:38
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+3
80.1%
Germie Bernard run for 3 yds to the FSU 28Similar
Q3 1:09
2ND & 7
OPP 28
0
81.0%
Ty Simpson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:04
3RD & 7
OPP 28
0
83.1%
Ty Simpson pass incomplete to Germie BernardSimilar
Q3 0:55
4TH & 7
OPP 28
0
83.6%
Ty Simpson pass incomplete to Ryan WilliamsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · -7 yds · 1:3089% → 89%
Q3 0:46
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-1
88.9%
Ousmane Kromah run for a loss of 1 yard to the FSU 27Similar
Q3 0:11
2ND & 11
OWN 27
+2
89.1%
Gavin Sawchuk run for 2 yds to the FSU 29Similar
Q4 14:55
3RD & 9
OWN 29
-8
89.2%
Tommy Castellanos sacked by Keon Sabb for a loss of 8 yards to the FSU 21Similar
Q4 14:16
4TH & 17
OWN 21
0
88.7%
Mac Chiumento punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Jaylen Mbakwe at the ALA 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 17TD
7 plays · 63 yds · 3:0313% → 30%
Q4 14:03
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
87.2%
Ty Simpson pass complete to Ryan Williams for 3 yds to the ALA 40Similar
Q4 13:37
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+27
87.6%
Ty Simpson pass complete to Josh Cuevas for 27 yds to the FSU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:57
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+3
86.7%
Ty Simpson pass complete to Daniel Hill for 3 yds to the FSU 30Similar
Q4 12:19
2ND & 7
OPP 30
+6
86.9%
Kevin Riley run for 6 yds to the FSU 24Similar
Q4 11:56
3RD & 1
OPP 24
+6
89.1%
Kevin Riley run for 6 yds to the FSU 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:32
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+12
88.7%
Ty Simpson pass complete to Germie Bernard for 12 yds to the FSU 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
69.6%
Ty Simpson pass complete to Rico Scott for 6 yds for a TD (Conor Talty KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 18TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 3:3382% → 96%
Q4 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
82.0%
Ousmane Kromah run for 3 yds to the FSU 28Similar
Q4 10:20
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+5
82.7%
Tommy Castellanos run for 5 yds to the FSU 33Similar
Q4 9:54
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+1
82.8%
Tommy Castellanos run for 1 yd to the FSU 34Similar
Q4 9:09
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+4
82.9%
Roydell Williams run for 4 yds to the FSU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
85.7%
Tommy Castellanos pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:38
2ND & 10
OWN 38
0
85.4%
Tommy Castellanos run for no gain to the FSU 38Similar
Q4 8:30
3RD & 10
OWN 38
+15
84.7%
Alabama Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the ALA 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:21
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+1
87.1%
Gavin Sawchuk run for 1 yd to the ALA 46Similar
Q4 8:00
2ND & 9
OPP 46
+26
87.7%
Micahi Danzy run for 26 yds to the ALA 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:36
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+6
88.9%
Tommy Castellanos run for 6 yds to the ALA 14Similar
Q4 7:17
2ND & 4
OPP 14
+14
96.1%
Gavin Sawchuk run for 14 yds for a TD (Jake Weinberg KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 19DOWNS
10 plays · 26 yds · 1:215% → 5%
Q4 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
94.6%
Ty Simpson pass complete to Daniel Hill for 9 yds to the ALA 34Similar
Q4 6:47
2ND & 1
OWN 34
0
94.2%
Ty Simpson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:46
3RD & 1
OWN 34
0
94.3%
Ty Simpson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:46
4TH & 1
OWN 34
-5
94.4%
Alabama Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the ALA 29Similar
Q4 6:28
4TH & 6
OWN 29
+13
95.2%
Ty Simpson pass complete to Rico Scott for 13 yds to the ALA 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:13
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
94.8%
Ty Simpson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:07
2ND & 10
OWN 42
0
94.9%
Ty Simpson pass incomplete to Ryan WilliamsSimilar
Q4 5:55
3RD & 10
OWN 42
0
95.1%
Ty Simpson pass incomplete to Jalen HaleSimilar
Q4 5:39
4TH & 10
OWN 42
+9
95.5%
Ty Simpson run for 9 yds to the FSU 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 20END OF GAME
10 plays · 16 yds · 5:0097% → 99%
Q4 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+1
96.8%
Gavin Sawchuk run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 4:37
2ND & 9
50
+10
97.2%
Tommy Castellanos run for 10 yds to the ALA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:53
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+3
97.7%
Caziah Holmes run for 3 yds to the ALA 37Similar
Q4 3:06
2ND & 7
OPP 37
-2
98.1%
Micahi Danzy run for a loss of 2 yards to the ALA 39Similar
Q4 2:20
3RD & 9
OPP 39
+8
98.1%
Jaylin Lucas run for 8 yds to the ALA 31Similar
Q4 2:00
4TH & 1
OPP 31
+2
98.4%
Jaylin Lucas run for 2 yds to the ALA 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:45
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-2
98.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the ALA 31Similar
Q4 1:08
2ND & 12
OPP 31
-2
98.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the ALA 33Similar
Q4 0:30
3RD & 14
OPP 33
-2
98.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the ALA 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 9:45
Caziah Holmes run for 4 yds for a TD (Jake Weinberg KICK)
+19.9
TD · Q4 11:00
Ty Simpson pass complete to Rico Scott for 6 yds for a TD (Conor Talty KICK)
-19.1
TD · Q4 7:17
Gavin Sawchuk run for 14 yds for a TD (Jake Weinberg KICK)
+7.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com